Government desperately needs inner cabinet + Alistair Campbell running a small team spotting clouds before they become thunder storms.
On a serious note social media is resulting in part of the population including many celebrities participating in a frenzy of agitation. Is this a virtual '68? The frenzy even exceeds the last GE and yet another GE is 4 years away. What is going to give? Will it deflate or explode in some way?
It already kinda exploded a lidl bit on the last couple of weekends.
Being forced kicking and screaming into ensuring vulnerable kids do not go hungry is not a great look. But it is better than actually letting them go hungry.
The major takeaway here is wait a while before making any definitive calls on Rishi Sunak's political prospects. He has done the easy part. The next bit is going to be a whole lot tougher. The current fiasco is but a taster for the much bigger stuff to come.
Unless the government are just going to keep the taps flowing forever, the screaming over "austerity" (which was in many cases mostly just slowing increasing) that Cameron and Osborne oversaw is going to be a breeze compared to when 100,000s of people realise that furlough scheme was actually extended redundancy.
The government are either going to go full Corbyn or have to get a lot smarter about which battle to fight and be willing to stay strong. Weak and wobbly an even worse look for a government than one where some decisions seem harsh, but for a reason.
I agree with this but this was not the battle to fight. When the government has very limited resources those resources should be focused on those most in need. Its middle class benefits that need to take the hit. Pension tax reliefs, free TV licences, triple pension locks, subsidies for commuters etc etc. Rishi has done well getting the cash out really fast. The hard work is yet to start.
Wonderful law of unintended consequences here for the left. They've just campaigned to introduce a voucher based entitlement. Something that they (and I) have campaigned against for years has just been cheered across the line.
More than 3 minutes spent thinking on this and they'll begin to realise what a gigantic error they've made. Instead of vouchers they should have asked for £120m in additional child tax credits.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
I'm struck by how much this feels like Major's Government back in 1995-7 . Boris seems to be continually responding to events by reacting to them rather than pre-empting the obvious issues.
That's not surprising given how quickly things are running but it's not a great look.
Being forced kicking and screaming into ensuring vulnerable kids do not go hungry is not a great look. But it is better than actually letting them go hungry.
The major takeaway here is wait a while before making any definitive calls on Rishi Sunak's political prospects. He has done the easy part. The next bit is going to be a whole lot tougher. The current fiasco is but a taster for the much bigger stuff to come.
Unless the government are just going to keep the taps flowing forever, the screaming over "austerity" (which was in many cases mostly just slowing increasing) that Cameron and Osborne oversaw is going to be a breeze compared to when 100,000s of people realise that furlough scheme was actually extended redundancy.
The government are either going to go full Corbyn or have to get a lot smarter about which battle to fight and be willing to stay strong. Weak and wobbly an even worse look for a government than one where some decisions seem harsh, but for a reason.
I agree with this but this was not the battle to fight. When the government has very limited resources those resources should be focused on those most in need. Its middle class benefits that need to take the hit. Pension tax reliefs, free TV licences, triple pension locks, subsidies for commuters etc etc. Rishi has done well getting the cash out really fast. The hard work is yet to start.
Just to be clear, I wasn't saying they should have fought this. I said down thread, I actually don't really know much about the issue.
It was the wider point of much much bigger and more difficult decisions to come.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Saves this for when the EU deal is finalised and it turns out we still have almost free movement within the EU (just without the immediate right to benefits).
Wonderful law of unintended consequences here for the left. They've just campaigned to introduce a voucher based entitlement. Something that they (and I) have campaigned against for years has just been cheered across the line.
More than 3 minutes spent thinking on this and they'll begin to realise what a gigantic error they've made. Instead of vouchers they should have asked for £120m in additional child tax credits.
The government was out of control and being led by a premier league footballer (nothing wrong with that, right place, right time, etc).
It shows that they reached for the nearest available solution to ward off continued bad press.
It's bad enough that they u-turned (for them; for the children it's quite a good outcome) but worse is that they appear, as you see it, to have found a sub-optimal solution.
I'm struck by how much this feels like Major's Government back in 1995-7 . Boris seems to be continually responding to events by reacting to them rather than pre-empting the obvious issues.
That's not surprising given how quickly things are running but it's not a great look.
But JM had the excuse of a minimal majority by 1995, and a party that was blatantly looking to the post-Major future. For all that huge majorities can be tricky to manage (less chance of promotion, more MPs who expect to be out next election) , this government shouldn't smell this much of decay this quickly.
ETA: When there was that YouGov comparison of Boris and Keir (at the weekend?), wasn't Boris's sole remaining advantage being seen as the stronger of the two?
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Wrong sort of brown person klaxon is going off north of the border!
Au contraire, you see a 'brown person', I see an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked. I think I know who's got a skin colour thing going on.
Many people on the far left are really nasty human beings whose only redeeming feature is their progressive views. As they transition to the other end of the political spectrum (as a surprisingly large number of them do) the nastiness seems to be the one thing they hold onto. I know someone who used to work with this particular example, let's just say I'm not hopeful that she is going to suddenly reveal herself to be a wonderful human being.
Also their willingness to make totally false arguments, in denial of all evidence, as long as it suits their cause.
Their total subjugation to toxic foreign powers is also consistent.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
Well, at least we'll never have to hear any complaints about 'populism' or 'unelected advisers' from those experiencing onanistic ecstasy at a decision on public spending being outsourced to a footballer...
Good try, but the public spending decision sits with the treasury and elected ministers, it has not been outsourced. In a democracy, people, including footballers, are perfectly entitled to campaign and lobby, that is quite different to populism or an unelected adviser making decisions for their puppet PM.
On the contrary, it's exactly the same - indeed worse, because the government won a majority on a populist platform and has the right to appoint any advisers it chooses. The last time I checked, no footballer had any of that democratic legitimacy.
Since populism is now explicitly the name of the game for all sides, roll on the abolition of DfID!
You and everyone else is perfectly entitled to campaign for the the lobbying of DfiD. As are people campaigning to the contrary. As ever, the government decides and have responsibility not the lobbyists or campaigners. We both know you are deliberately confusing popular and populism. Rashford is popular, Cummings and his sidekick are populists.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Saves this for when the EU deal is finalised and it turns out we still have almost free movement within the EU (just without the immediate right to benefits).
A points system by definition is not free movement
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
Tough you lost the referendum the working class won it, mainly to control immigration.
We had far more low skilled immigration than we needed, reducing wages for the working class and adding to pressure on public services.
Hence EU migration will face the same points system as non EU migration
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Saves this for when the EU deal is finalised and it turns out we still have almost free movement within the EU (just without the immediate right to benefits).
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Saves this for when the EU deal is finalised and it turns out we still have almost free movement within the EU (just without the immediate right to benefits).
A points system by definition is not free movement
A suspect the points based system will have a large but hidden EU exception come July 31st.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
I have just imagined Philip Thompson being one who spits his tea out re the assertion that Conservatives are not in favour of freedoms.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Saves this for when the EU deal is finalised and it turns out we still have almost free movement within the EU (just without the immediate right to benefits).
A points system by definition is not free movement
A suspect the points based system will have a large but hidden EU exception come July 31st.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
There are controls on non EU migration, there are none on EU migration.
The Conservative Party is what it says, it believes in tradition, the rule of law and the nation state.
There are some liberals in it like Philip Thompson but he has openly said he is more Orange Book LD than traditional Tory
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
There are controls on non EU migration, there are none on EU migration.
The Conservative Party is what it says, it believes in tradition, the rule of law and the nation state.
There are some liberals in it like Philip Thompson but he has openly said he is more Orange Book LD than traditional Tory
Isn't that funny that we both thought of Philip independently?
There are plenty more Tories here that I think will disagree with you on this. Sean Fear immediately comes to mind. Outside of here I think Margaret Thatcher might have commented on it a few times!
I agree there are controls on non EU migration. Hasn't stopped large numbers coming though has it and making up for the reduction in EU migration. That is the point OLB and I are making. We don't think it will make an iota of difference.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
There are controls on non EU migration, there are none on EU migration.
The Conservative Party is what it says, it believes in tradition, the rule of law and the nation state.
There are some liberals in it like Philip Thompson but he has openly said he is more Orange Book LD than traditional Tory
Isn't that funny that we both thought of Philip independently?
There are plenty more Tories here that I think will disagree with you on this. Sean Fear immediately comes to mind. Outside of here I think Margaret Thatcher might have commented on it a few times!
I agree there are controls on non EU migration. Hasn't stopped large numbers coming though has it and making up for the reduction in EU migration. That is the point OLB and I are making. We don't think it will make an iota of difference.
Since when has Sean Fear opposed replacing free movement with a points system? The Tories do not believe in unfettered freedom, even Thatcher believed in immigration controls and freedom with responsibility.
Overall net immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum and will fall again once EU free movement ends
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
As before workers could cope from Eastern Europe in particular to the UK without restriction to take low skilled work, reducing the wages of the working class and increasing pressure on public services and housing. That was one of the main reasons Leave won.
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
Migration to the UK largely reflected labour demand combined with full employment of the native population. We will continue to import "low skilled" labour if there is unmet demand for it. Less of it will be European, that's all. Evidence that immigration reduces wages has always been rather weak. Meanwhile Brits have lost the automatic right to work and retire in the EU. Seems a rather poor bargain.
I was going to respond HYUFD, but OLB did a rather good job of doing so.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
It will not, there is not going to be free movement from outside the EU to replace free movement from the EU just a points system for all.
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
HYUFD - re your first paragraph you are correct, but we shall have to wait to see if that reduces immigration. The evidence so far of immigration from outside of the EU is that it won't. We could have controlled non EU immigration and Conservative politicians have repeatedly said they would and haven't. We shall have to see if that changes. I doubt it will.
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
There are controls on non EU migration, there are none on EU migration.
The Conservative Party is what it says, it believes in tradition, the rule of law and the nation state.
There are some liberals in it like Philip Thompson but he has openly said he is more Orange Book LD than traditional Tory
Isn't that funny that we both thought of Philip independently?
There are plenty more Tories here that I think will disagree with you on this. Sean Fear immediately comes to mind. Outside of here I think Margaret Thatcher might have commented on it a few times!
I agree there are controls on non EU migration. Hasn't stopped large numbers coming though has it and making up for the reduction in EU migration. That is the point OLB and I are making. We don't think it will make an iota of difference.
Since when has Sean Fear opposed replacing free movement with a points system? The Tories do not believe in unfettered freedom, even Thatcher believed in immigration controls and freedom with responsibility.
Overall net immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum and will fall again once EU free movement ends
Re Sean - I don't want to put words into his mouth. I have no idea what his views on this are. I am referring to the general concept of Conservatives (a lot of them anyway) believing in personal freedom. I believe he falls into that category.
I also believe freedom comes with responsibility and I also do not believe in unfettered immigration. I think you are getting away from the point you made which was that Conservatives do not believe in freedoms.
Scottish fishing industry about to be shafted. Again.
The Scottish fishing industry sold its quotas making a few ex fishermen very wealthy indeed. That might well have shafted the next generation of fishermen but that was the decision of those who held the quota in a common market. Now they want the quota back without paying for it. Which we can do but some compromise is not out of order.
Personally I am more focused on the onshore jobs that have been lost. I would make it a condition of fishing in UK waters that your catch is landed and processed in a UK port. That would have a lot more long term benefit to the north east (and the south west) than making a few captains rich once again.
That decision was more or less forced on them by the Tory government's adamant refusal to consider a scrappage/mothballing payment scheme like the rest of fishing Europe.
Tried a new Netflix series last night at the suggestion of my wife: Snowpiercer.
There's willing suspension of disbelief, and then there's Snowpiercer.
I have to virtually suspend my whole brain to watch it.
I have an easier time believing the more outlandish fantasies in Star Trek.
The original film version at least had the benefit of a truly bizarre Tilda Swinton role (what do you mean, another one?), although Jennifer Connelly is somewhat easier on the eye...
Odd news that the Government caved. The cynic conspiracy theorist in me sniffs some sort of set up - goodness knows why, but somehow 'for' Rashford, as the stage-managed beginning of his glittering political career.
The more sensible side thinks the Government would benefit an injection of clear thinking.
Comments
Free movement will now be replaced by a points system so fewer low skilled migrants will come to the UK with migration more focused on the high skilled
I'm struck by how much this feels like Major's Government back in 1995-7 . Boris seems to be continually responding to events by reacting to them rather than pre-empting the obvious issues.
That's not surprising given how quickly things are running but it's not a great look.
It was the wider point of much much bigger and more difficult decisions to come.
It shows that they reached for the nearest available solution to ward off continued bad press.
It's bad enough that they u-turned (for them; for the children it's quite a good outcome) but worse is that they appear, as you see it, to have found a sub-optimal solution.
ETA: When there was that YouGov comparison of Boris and Keir (at the weekend?), wasn't Boris's sole remaining advantage being seen as the stronger of the two?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1272871304572678144?s=20
Their total subjugation to toxic foreign powers is also consistent.
By the way HYUFD I don't disagree with you that it probably was a main reason for Leave winning. I also accept we have an issue in this country re population pressure.
But as OLB points out (as did I in my earlier post) this will make no difference. The mix of immigration will be different that is all, but my, my friends' and my children's freedoms to travel, work and enjoy life have been unnecessarily curtailed.
I always thought Conservatives were in favour of freedoms. It is certainly something I feel strongly about.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/motorsport/53045536
We had far more low skilled immigration than we needed, reducing wages for the working class and adding to pressure on public services.
Hence EU migration will face the same points system as non EU migration
You are also mistaken, the Conservative Party is not the Liberal Party
I also agree with you on your 2nd para. You do realise you have just openly said the Conservative Party is not in favour of freedoms!!!!! (Quote me - 'I always thought the Conservatives were in favour of freedoms' Quote you - 'You are mistaken, the Conservative party is not the Liberal party)
However I suspect a lot of Conservatives will spitting out their tea on reading this. I actually think you are correct, which is why I am a Liberal and not a Conservative but how many times have we heard the Conservative party say it is for individual freedom?
The Conservative Party is what it says, it believes in tradition, the rule of law and the nation state.
There are some liberals in it like Philip Thompson but he has openly said he is more Orange Book LD than traditional Tory
There are plenty more Tories here that I think will disagree with you on this. Sean Fear immediately comes to mind. Outside of here I think Margaret Thatcher might have commented on it a few times!
I agree there are controls on non EU migration. Hasn't stopped large numbers coming though has it and making up for the reduction in EU migration. That is the point OLB and I are making. We don't think it will make an iota of difference.
Overall net immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum and will fall again once EU free movement ends
I also believe freedom comes with responsibility and I also do not believe in unfettered immigration. I think you are getting away from the point you made which was that Conservatives do not believe in freedoms.
The more sensible side thinks the Government would benefit an injection of clear thinking.