An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
Coronavirus has made no deal quite possible economically. Estimates were generally a hit of 2-6%, if its that scale it could be lost in the wash because of covid. Even more so as the losses wouldnt hit everyone equally, most people wouldnt notice, others would lose their jobs and be hit heavily. The economy will need rebuilding and rebalancing anyway, incorporating no deal is easier in that scenario than when things are "normal".
By far the worst scenario is extension now followed by no deal in 2022/3 - given our political elites record of consistently choosing the worst option recently perhaps that is what we will get.
There is some cover for No Deal, yes, but it is still all downside and no upside - this is why it can be ruled out. If Johnson was scared of Farage - if there was a real political threat there - I could just about see that he might consider No Dealing. But imo he isn't scared of Farage. He knows that so long as FM is (at least technically) ended, plus a little something on Fish, he will not face major blowback from Leavers. No Deal, OTOH, with its potential for chaos and job losses, would risk the Red Wallers going, "hang on, what the fuck is this?" He does not need that.
Sadly there is no contradiction in being obese and malnourished at the same time. Empty calories are the cheapest kind of food and people who are hungry a lot of the time frequently become fat since their metabolism gets disrupted. We are increasingly becoming like the US, with a food supply dominated by providing cheap calories to poor people, while the better off chide the poor for being overweight and say "well they're obviously not hungry."
No figures are accurate. It's a given that many asymptomatic cases are being missed, and they make up 70-80% of all infections.
We will only know how countries have fared when we look at excess deaths once the pandemic is over, and even then that assumes that all countries produce accurate data about such things.
Presumably the £120 million doesnt account for the food industry jobs kept, the indirect taxes raised and money recycled in the economy either. The real cost will be far less.
I am 100% positive the final deal will be a form of "cake and eating it" or "cherrypicking" deal and always have been.
The reason is Europe has always been cherrypicked. The cake that defines the EU has always been Fudge Cake and we will end up with a fudge that works best and eating it. The idea there was one form of option available and everything else was cherrypicking was the biggest unicorn of this entire process.
This image needs updating but sums up my thinking on Europe beautifully. The reality is that countries will find an agreement they're happy with and the UK will end up somewhere else on this Venn Diagram having picked whichever cherries works best.
They'll need a new loop on the diagram. We're going to be "Agreement with EEA" and in the EU Customs Union. Will pass through Borders marked EU/EEA/CH/UK etc. Which as you point out is fine - there is no one size fits all at the moment so why should it be any different for us. The EU were always going to be happy to fudge what they call the arrangement. They just pointed out that we would still be on the diagram...
My prediction is we neither be in the EEA circle, nor the Customs Union circle. We will be in a new circle for our Agreement. If I was redesigning that graphic I would put the UK to the South of the existing circles and we would be in the Council of Europe and new Agreement circle and that's it - out of all other circles.
They won't be called EEA or CU in the UK. In practice they will be. We have to stay in the EEA to retain trade deals with every other nation in the world. We have to stay in the CU to avoid having to impossibly build a customs border in a few months.
Call it what we want - that's the give from the EU. And it will be a bespoke deal because EEA usually aren't in the CU. But we have to be. So they'll call it some bollocks and Boris will pretend he hasn't put a border down the Irish Sea again
If GB is de facto in the EEA and Customs Union (bar no free movement and able to do our own trade deals) there would be no border in the Irish Sea in reality anyway
Correct but you haven't noticed that it means we will be tied to the Customs Union forever as it would be impossible to leave it.
That was May's Deal not Boris' Deal
Shall we try again with smaller words
You stated that - If GB is de facto in the EEA and Customs Union (bar no free movement and able to do our own trade deals) there would be no border in the Irish Sea in reality anyway
I'm pointing out that that is the case come January it will be politically impossible to introduce a barrier in the future which means that we could never leave our de facto membership as we would need to introduce the barrier to leave said membership.
Yet we will not be in the Customs Union as May left GB in indefinitely as the Boris Withdrawal Agreement removed GB from the Customs Union so we could do our own trade deals.
A LPF might reduce any border in the Irish Sea but it would not be staying in a customs union and we could still do our own trade deals
Scottish fishing industry about to be shafted. Again.
The Scottish fishing industry sold its quotas making a few ex fishermen very wealthy indeed. That might well have shafted the next generation of fishermen but that was the decision of those who held the quota in a common market. Now they want the quota back without paying for it. Which we can do but some compromise is not out of order.
Personally I am more focused on the onshore jobs that have been lost. I would make it a condition of fishing in UK waters that your catch is landed and processed in a UK port. That would have a lot more long term benefit to the north east (and the south west) than making a few captains rich once again.
From what I understand of the dynamics (not a huge amount) wouldn't that mean that the type of fish caught in UK waters would be landed in the UK and then immediately re-exported because we don't eat our local fish?
Doesn't seem super-efficient...?
Yes it would. I don't care about the super-efficiency of it. I want UK plc to see the benefit of its fish in terms of jobs and business activity here. Factory fishing vessels hoovering the sea and then returning to Spain with a largely foreign crew do absolutely nothing for us. Before the CFP places like the Neuk of Fife, Arbroath, Aberdeen and Peterhead had thousands of onshore jobs cleaning, smoking and processing the fish. My understanding is that the south west was similar. They won't come back the same way, the cottage industry of the past has gone, but I would like to see some benefit from this harvest.
Will you be advising your kids to move into the exciting new sector (*if *it comes to pass) of fish cleaning, smoking and processing? Perhaps an area to think about for a wee retirement job for yourself.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
Coronavirus has made no deal quite possible economically. Estimates were generally a hit of 2-6%, if its that scale it could be lost in the wash because of covid. Even more so as the losses wouldnt hit everyone equally, most people wouldnt notice, others would lose their jobs and be hit heavily. The economy will need rebuilding and rebalancing anyway, incorporating no deal is easier in that scenario than when things are "normal".
By far the worst scenario is extension now followed by no deal in 2022/3 - given our political elites record of consistently choosing the worst option recently perhaps that is what we will get.
There is some cover for No Deal, yes, but it is still all downside and no upside - this is why it can be ruled out. If Johnson was scared of Farage - if there was a real political threat there - I could just about see that he might consider No Dealing. But imo he isn't scared of Farage. He knows that so long as FM is (at least technically) ended, plus a little something on Fish, he will not face major blowback from Leavers. No Deal, OTOH, with its potential for chaos and job losses, would risk the Red Wallers going, "hang on, what the fuck is this?" He does not need that.
I hope you are right, and wouldnt be at all surprised if you were, it is one of the most plausible outcomes. I cannot share your certainty though!
Sadly there is no contradiction in being obese and malnourished at the same time. Empty calories are the cheapest kind of food and people who are hungry a lot of the time frequently become fat since their metabolism gets disrupted. We are increasingly becoming like the US, with a food supply dominated by providing cheap calories to poor people, while the better off chide the poor for being overweight and say "well they're obviously not hungry."
Quite right. I was shocked by this during some of our 4th year students Global health presentations. Always simply associated malnourishment with not enough food, but that's just not correct. Much of Africa has obese and malnourished people as a massive public health issue.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
Without the invasion Iraq would now, most probably, be in the hands of Saddam's two psychopathic sons. If one's against the invasion one has to explain why that would be a relatively good thing.
We've spent more than a century intervening militarily in the Middle East - I think Churchill had a go in the 1920s with the RAF - and it's hard to identify much in the way of progress. It's easier to point to events when we've made things worse.
Perhaps we should try something different?
A sort of geopolitical Hippocratic oath, "first do no harm" might not be a bad place to start.
Aid budget going to be squeezed anyway since 0.7% of GDP isn't worth what it once was. Bureaucratically this is going to be a tricky one. DFID has one of the highest pay scales in Whitehall vs. FCO with one of the lowest...
Sadly there is no contradiction in being obese and malnourished at the same time. Empty calories are the cheapest kind of food and people who are hungry a lot of the time frequently become fat since their metabolism gets disrupted. We are increasingly becoming like the US, with a food supply dominated by providing cheap calories to poor people, while the better off chide the poor for being overweight and say "well they're obviously not hungry."
The parents will still use the vouchers to fill them up with shit because theyre bad parents. This one is on those who wanted us to remain in lockdown and keep the schools shut I'm afraid.
BoZo needs to follow his Myanmar recitation with another extract of Kipling:
"Take up the White Man's burden - The savage wars of peace - Fill full the mouth of famine And bid the sickness cease; And when your goal is nearest The end for others sought, Watch Sloth and heathen Folly Bring all your hopes to nought.
Take up the White Man's burden - No tawdry rule of kings, But toil of serf and sweeper - The tale of common things. The ports ye shall not enter, The roads ye shall not tread, Go make them with your living, And mark them with your dead !
Take up the White Man's burden - And reap his old reward, The blame of those ye better, The hate of those ye guard ...
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Why doesn't Marcus Rashford ask all premiership players to donate 50% of their wages for a month. Im sure that would cover the cost of the school meals thing.
Why should he/they?
If he/they choose altruism to help, over and above government responsibility that is fine by me.
Are you suggesting the undeserving wealthy should finance the undeserving poor?
The Government has invested billions & billions to maintain peeple in this crisis. Why shouldn't extremely rich footballers put their hand in their pocket a bit, they don't need the incredible sums of money they earn. If Marcus Rashford has started the fund with £1 million of his own money then he would have a bit more kudos. Just asking someone else to give money is easy.
So you are asking for a redistribution of weth. Excellent! That is fine by me.
Tax Marcus Radford and other high earners on a rate of taxation commensurate with what you think they deserve to pay for social inequality
Rather than ask the Government to spend even more money, he should campaign for his fellow players to help.
OK tax them at 75% of income. That way it is not optional, job done!
Good luck with that!
We are in an unprecedented situation. I listened to the local radio news this morning and the first 6 items were people wanting government help for something. The government cannot do it all.
I don't dispute that. Cases have to be prioritised.
The spectre of malnourished children might follow the Conservative Party around for decades, should Rashford remain disappointed.
What about child benefit, universal credit and working families tax credit? Can meals not be bought with those.
Being blunt families can't budget. Assuming a single parent family with 2 children they get £x which needs to pay for 63 meals during holidays and only 43-53 meals during term time (the range is because a lot of schools also do breakfast clubs as children don't get proper breakfasts).
A better approach would be for child tax credits to be increased and free school meals removed with parents having to pay the money to the school but the school wouldn't see the money and it would add more admin than the current approach.
A problem with this is that qualifying for free school meals unlocks a whole host of other advantages aimed at children in poor families.
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Just as well we're leaving the EU, that should save us billions in the long run. Maybe once we've left we can look at paying more money towards things like this. It's just a shame that so many people who sought to delay us leaving also want more free stuff...
Why doesn't Marcus Rashford ask all premiership players to donate 50% of their wages for a month. Im sure that would cover the cost of the school meals thing.
Why should he/they?
If he/they choose altruism to help, over and above government responsibility that is fine by me.
Are you suggesting the undeserving wealthy should finance the undeserving poor?
The Government has invested billions & billions to maintain peeple in this crisis. Why shouldn't extremely rich footballers put their hand in their pocket a bit, they don't need the incredible sums of money they earn. If Marcus Rashford has started the fund with £1 million of his own money then he would have a bit more kudos. Just asking someone else to give money is easy.
So you are asking for a redistribution of weth. Excellent! That is fine by me.
Tax Marcus Radford and other high earners on a rate of taxation commensurate with what you think they deserve to pay for social inequality
Rather than ask the Government to spend even more money, he should campaign for his fellow players to help.
OK tax them at 75% of income. That way it is not optional, job done!
Good luck with that!
We are in an unprecedented situation. I listened to the local radio news this morning and the first 6 items were people wanting government help for something. The government cannot do it all.
I don't dispute that. Cases have to be prioritised.
The spectre of malnourished children might follow the Conservative Party around for decades, should Rashford remain disappointed.
What about child benefit, universal credit and working families tax credit? Can meals not be bought with those.
Being blunt families can't budget. Assuming a single parent family with 2 children they get £x which needs to pay for 63 meals during holidays and only 43-53 meals during term time (the range is because a lot of schools also do breakfast clubs as children don't get proper breakfasts).
A better approach would be for child tax credits to be increased and free school meals removed with parents having to pay the money to the school but the school wouldn't see the money and it would add more admin than the current approach.
A problem with this is that qualifying for free school meals unlocks a whole host of other advantages aimed at children in poor families.
Not quite, schools also get benefits from their diversity mix - I used to joke about how much ticking the traveller of Irish descent box was worth to a school (back in 2012 it was about £2k a child).
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Just as well we're leaving the EU, that should save us billions in the long run. Maybe once we've left we can look at paying more money towards things like this. It's just a shame that so many people who sought to delay us leaving also want more free stuff...
It’s been an education for people to see that which successive governments have dumped onto schools now coming back to bite them.
Make schools into social workers, Make schools into childcare. Make schools into providers of basic needs like food.
Now it’s time to rip the whole thing apart, to let schools concentrate on education and to create a system that can independently support children. While we are at it, we need to create an education system that harnesses children’s energies, not something that millions hate so much that they will opt out now they’ve been given the chance to.
I don’t know how many but surely there are other areas that need to seize this moment to make radical and lasting change.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
I supported the decision to invade Iraq because the government told me that there was a compelling reason for doing so.
Support it now? Not really a relevant question.
Did we make a horlicks of it? Yes, and the reasons are manifold, essentially boiling down to the politicians asking questions they wanted answered in a particular way, the generals answering questions in a particular way, together with force levels.
What's interesting about the Iraq debate is that we don't talk about Afghanistan. A quick Google tells me that 179 British troops died in Iraq and 454 died in Afghanistan.
I can understand why the Americans wanted to go after the terrorists in Afghanistan, but I really don't understand why we decided to go to war with the Taliban afterwards.
They wouldn't give up Bin Laden. Their honour code forbids them from giving up guests and hence the allies had to go in to get him.
Seems like the correct approach, move away from the twitter screaming and shouting. Also rich for a Labour party that appointed Chakrabati to look into internal anti semitism to criticise the appointment of someone of Mirza's stature.
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Just as well we're leaving the EU, that should save us billions in the long run. Maybe once we've left we can look at paying more money towards things like this. It's just a shame that so many people who sought to delay us leaving also want more free stuff...
Write out a hundred times:
"We have already left the European Union."
Not until the transition period is over as far as I'm concerned.
No figures are accurate. It's a given that many asymptomatic cases are being missed, and they make up 70-80% of all infections.
We will only know how countries have fared when we look at excess deaths once the pandemic is over, and even then that assumes that all countries produce accurate data about such things.
I read somewhere credible (can't trace where) that 25% of all Indian deaths result in a death certificate with cause of death stated by a doctor, a further 45% are officially recorded in some way, and the balance of 30% are not recorded anywhere. So even excess mortality data are unavailable.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
I supported the decision to invade Iraq because the government told me that there was a compelling reason for doing so.
Support it now? Not really a relevant question.
Did we make a horlicks of it? Yes, and the reasons are manifold, essentially boiling down to the politicians asking questions they wanted answered in a particular way, the generals answering questions in a particular way, together with force levels.
I accept all of that. And I think it's not unreasonable for others to accept that a - still rather young! - conservative in 2003 might not have been convinced that the case for war was worth the expense of British blood and treasure, let alone all the other consequences.
ha! Of course I accept that. War is something that everyone must come to their own decisions about.
I was only joshing that your fellow travellers were surely overwhelmingly to the left of your current avowed position. I may well continue to josh you along those lines.
The parents will still use the vouchers to fill them up with shit because theyre bad parents.
I can see you've applied your standard level of deep thought to this issue.
If you really think parents who feed their kids crap are suddenly going to change their habits of a lifetime because they have more vouchers then I have a bridge to sell you I'm afraid. In some families this decisions are ingrained and it is education rather than more free stuff that is the key issue.
BoZo needs to follow his Myanmar recitation with another extract of Kipling:
"Take up the White Man's burden - The savage wars of peace - Fill full the mouth of famine And bid the sickness cease; And when your goal is nearest The end for others sought, Watch Sloth and heathen Folly Bring all your hopes to nought.
Take up the White Man's burden - No tawdry rule of kings, But toil of serf and sweeper - The tale of common things. The ports ye shall not enter, The roads ye shall not tread, Go make them with your living, And mark them with your dead !
Take up the White Man's burden - And reap his old reward, The blame of those ye better, The hate of those ye guard ...
Any White Man who wants to take on the burden of foreign aid can give money to dozens or hundreds of charities. There's no reason for the government to do it on his behalf.
I'm biting the hand that feeds me to some extent, having made a living out of various aid budgets.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
I supported the decision to invade Iraq because the government told me that there was a compelling reason for doing so.
Support it now? Not really a relevant question.
Did we make a horlicks of it? Yes, and the reasons are manifold, essentially boiling down to the politicians asking questions they wanted answered in a particular way, the generals answering questions in a particular way, together with force levels.
I accept all of that. And I think it's not unreasonable for others to accept that a - still rather young! - conservative in 2003 might not have been convinced that the case for war was worth the expense of British blood and treasure, let alone all the other consequences.
ha! Of course I accept that. War is something that everyone must come to their own decisions about.
I was only joshing that your fellow travellers were surely overwhelmingly to the left of your current avowed position. I may well continue to josh you along those lines.
It was a broad church
Many commentators noted the diversity of those attending the march. Euan Ferguson noted in The Observer[43] that:
[As well as the] usual suspects – CND, Socialist Workers Party, the anarchists ... There were nuns. Toddlers. Women barristers. The Eton George Orwell Society. Archaeologists Against War. Walthamstow Catholic Church, the Swaffham Women's Choir and Notts County Supporters Say Make Love Not War (And a Home Win against Bristol would be Nice). They won 2-0, by the way. One group of SWP stalwarts were joined, for the first march in any of their histories, by their mothers. There were country folk and lecturers, dentists and poulterers, a hairdresser from Cardiff and a poet from Cheltenham.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
Coronavirus has made no deal quite possible economically. Estimates were generally a hit of 2-6%, if its that scale it could be lost in the wash because of covid. Even more so as the losses wouldnt hit everyone equally, most people wouldnt notice, others would lose their jobs and be hit heavily. The economy will need rebuilding and rebalancing anyway, incorporating no deal is easier in that scenario than when things are "normal".
By far the worst scenario is extension now followed by no deal in 2022/3 - given our political elites record of consistently choosing the worst option recently perhaps that is what we will get.
There is some cover for No Deal, yes, but it is still all downside and no upside - this is why it can be ruled out. If Johnson was scared of Farage - if there was a real political threat there - I could just about see that he might consider No Dealing. But imo he isn't scared of Farage. He knows that so long as FM is (at least technically) ended, plus a little something on Fish, he will not face major blowback from Leavers. No Deal, OTOH, with its potential for chaos and job losses, would risk the Red Wallers going, "hang on, what the fuck is this?" He does not need that.
I hope you are right, and wouldnt be at all surprised if you were, it is one of the most plausible outcomes. I cannot share your certainty though!
- OK.
But I am genuinely certain not just pretending to be. Pity there isn't a "No Deal" market on Betfair for me to lay like a lion.
Guess I know why - it's very hard to define with sufficient precision this time.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Won't they just, at this stage, have her attend cabinet as a Minister without the Secretary of State title? That's not uncommon - the Leader of the House, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Chief Whip all do so without being Secretaries of State, Theresa May used to get the Immigration Minister along etc.
I'd have thought that's more likely than a reshuffle at such an early stage in the ministry and with both Brexit and Coronavirus at the point they are. My guess is Johnson will look to reshuffle in early to mid 2021 unless something is forced on him early by resignation/scandal.
Won't they just, at this stage, have her attend cabinet as a Minister without the Secretary of State title? That's not uncommon - the Leader of the House, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Chief Whip all do so without being Secretaries of State, Theresa May used to get the Immigration Minister along etc.
I'd have thought that's more likely than a reshuffle at such an early stage in the ministry and with both Brexit and Coronavirus at the point they are. My guess is Johnson will look to reshuffle in early to mid 2021 unless something is forced on him early by resignation/scandal.
BoZo needs a reshuffle to try and remove some of the stench of death from the current cabinet
Won't they just, at this stage, have her attend cabinet as a Minister without the Secretary of State title? That's not uncommon - the Leader of the House, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Chief Whip all do so without being Secretaries of State, Theresa May used to get the Immigration Minister along etc.
I'd have thought that's more likely than a reshuffle at such an early stage in the ministry and with both Brexit and Coronavirus at the point they are. My guess is Johnson will look to reshuffle in early to mid 2021 unless something is forced on him early by resignation/scandal.
BoZo needs a reshuffle to try and remove some of the stench of death from the current cabinet
He loves the stench of death in the cabinet. It smells like brexit.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Wrong sort of brown person klaxon is going off north of the border!
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Wrong sort of brown person klaxon is going off north of the border!
Au contraire, you see a 'brown person', I see an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked. I think I know who's got a skin colour thing going on.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
I supported the decision to invade Iraq because the government told me that there was a compelling reason for doing so.
Support it now? Not really a relevant question.
Did we make a horlicks of it? Yes, and the reasons are manifold, essentially boiling down to the politicians asking questions they wanted answered in a particular way, the generals answering questions in a particular way, together with force levels.
I accept all of that. And I think it's not unreasonable for others to accept that a - still rather young! - conservative in 2003 might not have been convinced that the case for war was worth the expense of British blood and treasure, let alone all the other consequences.
ha! Of course I accept that. War is something that everyone must come to their own decisions about.
I was only joshing that your fellow travellers were surely overwhelmingly to the left of your current avowed position. I may well continue to josh you along those lines.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Won't they just, at this stage, have her attend cabinet as a Minister without the Secretary of State title? That's not uncommon - the Leader of the House, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Chief Whip all do so without being Secretaries of State, Theresa May used to get the Immigration Minister along etc.
I'd have thought that's more likely than a reshuffle at such an early stage in the ministry and with both Brexit and Coronavirus at the point they are. My guess is Johnson will look to reshuffle in early to mid 2021 unless something is forced on him early by resignation/scandal.
BoZo needs a reshuffle to try and remove some of the stench of death from the current cabinet
He loves the stench of death in the cabinet. It smells like brexit.
No figures are accurate. It's a given that many asymptomatic cases are being missed, and they make up 70-80% of all infections.
We will only know how countries have fared when we look at excess deaths once the pandemic is over, and even then that assumes that all countries produce accurate data about such things.
There was much heat on here about how we compared to other European countries.
Turns out different countries are counting in different ways, some around the world have done it in such a way as to minimise or at least down play the human toll.
China did some very strange things in terms of deciding what constituted a COVID case, especially outside the first province.
Spain has also been in the news recently - there are plenty of others.
She has actually improved the implementation of universal credit and ensured the welfare system could cope through lockdown
But she also dared mention facts to a footballer, so that's her career done...
Would you support the govt if it decided to continue free school meals throughout the summer holidays?
I thought you lefties were all in favour of govt handouts??
I wasn't quite clear from your posts yesterday - did you mean to imply that you supported the decision to invade Iraq at the time, or that you still support it now? The former is understandable - although some of us rightly predicted the disaster that would unfold before we went in - but the latter bespeaks a slight, er, deficit in analytical skill. Just curious.
I supported the decision to invade Iraq because the government told me that there was a compelling reason for doing so.
Support it now? Not really a relevant question.
Did we make a horlicks of it? Yes, and the reasons are manifold, essentially boiling down to the politicians asking questions they wanted answered in a particular way, the generals answering questions in a particular way, together with force levels.
I accept all of that. And I think it's not unreasonable for others to accept that a - still rather young! - conservative in 2003 might not have been convinced that the case for war was worth the expense of British blood and treasure, let alone all the other consequences.
ha! Of course I accept that. War is something that everyone must come to their own decisions about.
I was only joshing that your fellow travellers were surely overwhelmingly to the left of your current avowed position. I may well continue to josh you along those lines.
It was a broad church
Many commentators noted the diversity of those attending the march. Euan Ferguson noted in The Observer[43] that:
[As well as the] usual suspects – CND, Socialist Workers Party, the anarchists ... There were nuns. Toddlers. Women barristers. The Eton George Orwell Society. Archaeologists Against War. Walthamstow Catholic Church, the Swaffham Women's Choir and Notts County Supporters Say Make Love Not War (And a Home Win against Bristol would be Nice). They won 2-0, by the way. One group of SWP stalwarts were joined, for the first march in any of their histories, by their mothers. There were country folk and lecturers, dentists and poulterers, a hairdresser from Cardiff and a poet from Cheltenham.
Ha, I actually attended (at the start anyway) the Glasgow one with my mum, she split off to join the shock troop grannies hoping to string up Blair. It was fricking freezing.
Sadly there is no contradiction in being obese and malnourished at the same time. Empty calories are the cheapest kind of food and people who are hungry a lot of the time frequently become fat since their metabolism gets disrupted. We are increasingly becoming like the US, with a food supply dominated by providing cheap calories to poor people, while the better off chide the poor for being overweight and say "well they're obviously not hungry."
The parents will still use the vouchers to fill them up with shit because theyre bad parents. This one is on those who wanted us to remain in lockdown and keep the schools shut I'm afraid.
"Because they're bad parents" is a spectacularly ill-informed comment. The efforts some poor parents go to to make sure their children are fed, clothed, attend school and stay out of the hands of predatory criminals is an inspiration. Of course people don't know enough about food, nutrition and cooking, but what do you expect when it's barely taught at school and junk food is relentlessly marketed at people? Your point about schools remaining shut down is nonsense too since we are talking about arrangements during the school holidays. Schools have been feeding vulnerable kids throughout term time.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
He says "I think it’s much closer to a rather wild plan to revolutionise this country with unrestricted free trade, perhaps made easier to bear by plenty of sex parties and drug decriminalisation."
If thats what we get with this government I will be voting for them next time around!
He really has gone bonkers and links everything back to drug laws.
OT shopping news -- massive queue for Sports Direct; none for Sainsbury's. One of the local primary schools always has children in its playground, presumably owing to staggered breaks and PE lessons.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
The Spiked crowd are the lowest of the low. I get the occasional thought that they might be doing this as some sort of entryist tactic and it’s all a bit clever-clever but then I see O’Neill again and realise that he’s just reactionary scum. There is something very off with Goodwin, at times he seems like a fellow traveller with them.
Sadly there is no contradiction in being obese and malnourished at the same time. Empty calories are the cheapest kind of food and people who are hungry a lot of the time frequently become fat since their metabolism gets disrupted. We are increasingly becoming like the US, with a food supply dominated by providing cheap calories to poor people, while the better off chide the poor for being overweight and say "well they're obviously not hungry."
The parents will still use the vouchers to fill them up with shit because theyre bad parents. This one is on those who wanted us to remain in lockdown and keep the schools shut I'm afraid.
"Because they're bad parents" is a spectacularly ill-informed comment. The efforts some poor parents go to to make sure their children are fed, clothed, attend school and stay out of the hands of predatory criminals is an inspiration. Of course people don't know enough about food, nutrition and cooking, but what do you expect when it's barely taught at school and junk food is relentlessly marketed at people? Your point about schools remaining shut down is nonsense too since we are talking about arrangements during the school holidays. Schools have been feeding vulnerable kids throughout term time.
The schools should be open throughout the holidays and kids should be able to get meals there. The left have put pressure on schools not to reopen or stay open and then dislike the results. There is no compassion for the hardest hit children who will now miss out on weeks and months of education because of idealogical reasons dressed up as bunk science.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
The Spiked crowd are the lowest of the low. I get the occasional thought that they might be doing this as some sort of entryist tactic and it’s all a bit clever-clever but then I see O’Neill again and realise that he’s just reactionary scum. There is something very off with Goodwin, at times he seems like a fellow traveller with them.
Virus unlockdown a total mess. Hospitality trades on brink of mega crisis. Millions join the dole. Trace and trace app non-existent. Death rate still not good compared to other countries.
Oh look a squirrel with Overseas Aid written on it!!!!
David Ornstein, of The Athletic, reported that the kingpin agent met his brothers in a meeting early last year – and both parties impressed each other during the talks.
Speaking on the Chapman and Ornstein podcast, it was claimed Rashford’s representatives were keen for advice on how to grow their younger sibling’s profile in the game.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
What's the Royal College of Physicians got to do with this?
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Wrong sort of brown person klaxon is going off north of the border!
Au contraire, you see a 'brown person', I see an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked. I think I know who's got a skin colour thing going on.
I know which major party has the problem with diversity - its clearly the SNP. Can imagine an inquiry would not go well for them. Perhaps let's wait for the results before rubbishing someone who is clearly very qualified.
Boris should say today that the Government will match contributions from premier league players to pay for the school meals in the summer holidays. That would concentrate minds.
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Just as well we're leaving the EU, that should save us billions in the long run. Maybe once we've left we can look at paying more money towards things like this. It's just a shame that so many people who sought to delay us leaving also want more free stuff...
Write out a hundred times:
"We have already left the European Union."
Not until the transition period is over as far as I'm concerned.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
The Spiked crowd are the lowest of the low. I get the occasional thought that they might be doing this as some sort of entryist tactic and it’s all a bit clever-clever but then I see O’Neill again and realise that he’s just reactionary scum. There is something very off with Goodwin, at times he seems like a fellow traveller with them.
Insults and labels are not arguments.
I don’t argue with people like that, it’s a waste of time. I just want them gone (from the airwaves primarily, they are given vastly undue prominence).
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
Wrong sort of brown person klaxon is going off north of the border!
Au contraire, you see a 'brown person', I see an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked. I think I know who's got a skin colour thing going on.
Many people on the far left are really nasty human beings whose only redeeming feature is their progressive views. As they transition to the other end of the political spectrum (as a surprisingly large number of them do) the nastiness seems to be the one thing they hold onto. I know someone who used to work with this particular example, let's just say I'm not hopeful that she is going to suddenly reveal herself to be a wonderful human being.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
The Spiked crowd are the lowest of the low. I get the occasional thought that they might be doing this as some sort of entryist tactic and it’s all a bit clever-clever but then I see O’Neill again and realise that he’s just reactionary scum. There is something very off with Goodwin, at times he seems like a fellow traveller with them.
What I find slightly odd about the RCP crowd (apart from them appearing to keep close links with each other) is that afaics none of them have made any public recantations or withdrawals from their at-the-time loudly proclaimed views. We now have the spectacle of exactly the same people who were screeching Marxist at Corbyn (who never claimed to be such a thing) now portraying criticism of a self identifying Marxist as racism. Funny, old world..
Boris should say today that the Government will match contributions from premier league players to pay for the school meals in the summer holidays. That would concentrate minds.
Why not set defence funding based on matching what doctors are willing to contribute. Makes as much sense.
Boris should say today that the Government will match contributions from premier league players to pay for the school meals in the summer holidays. That would concentrate minds.
what a weird suggestion.
they could announce an increase in tax on people earning over a million a year to pay for it - that should make sure many premier league players contribute, if that is what you want.
I guess you'd want an ex RCP member and contributor to Living Marxism & Spiked to be the one to pick up the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play against non evidence based, ideological claims.
The Spiked crowd are the lowest of the low. I get the occasional thought that they might be doing this as some sort of entryist tactic and it’s all a bit clever-clever but then I see O’Neill again and realise that he’s just reactionary scum. There is something very off with Goodwin, at times he seems like a fellow traveller with them.
What I find slightly odd about the RCP crowd (apart from them appearing to keep close links with each other) is that afaics none of them have made any public recantations or withdrawals from their at-the-time loudly proclaimed views. We now have the spectacle of exactly the same people who were screeching Marxist at Corbyn (who never claimed to be such a thing) now portraying criticism of a self identifying Marxist as racism. Funny, old world..
Some of the former RCP group are part of a still functioning entryist cult, who still actually want to see a modernist vision of "progress" by any means necessary. They've got it into their heads that the modern left precludes technological and scientific progress, particularly - as that comes from the top and their leader, Frank Furedi - so they'll support any force perceived to be counter to that.
An extension is politically impossible. No Deal is politically and economically such lunacy as to be effectively impossible. Thus there will be no extension and there will be no No Deal.
Leaves us with one thing. A deal substantively on the EU's terms but with enough fig leaf for Johnson to sell to his sucker audience as great for the UK. Watch out for terms such as "phased future divergence" and "dynamic democratic alignment".
That is the plan. A Surrender Deal badged here as a triumph. Just like last time. You don't change a winning formula.
And since the above is the only way that this can turn out - given the politics and the economics - it should be considered a certainty.
If we have left the EU, ended free movement, regained control of our fishing waters and can do our own trade deals and got a trade deal with the EU that is no surrender, it is a triumph!
The irony of this is we spent quite sometime, sometime ago, negotiating a humdinger of a trade deal with the EU and we have just chucked it away to negotiate a worse one with lots more red tape.
Re fishing waters and free movement - this is all smoke and mirrors. No doubt it will be sold as a triumph, but immigration is not going to change just lots more red tape and the normal variation of where people come from, but making life far more difficult re travel to Europe. And we flogged off much of our fishing rights and now think it is ok to just take them back (bizarrely to catch types of fish we don't eat, but which we hope to sell to the people we sold the rights to fish here).
Yep all very sensible and a triumph.
Replacing free movement from the EU with a points system is a big change
Is it? Why?
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
I fully understand the government making a stand on summer lunch vouchers. It won't be long until they're made permanent and then how long until people start asking for dinner vouchers and eventually it just becomes another type of benefit.
Free school meals in term time make sense as it's for educational purposes. Outside of term time it's yet more entitlement culture. Means test the benefit and any family that has more than one mobile phone contract or paid cable or satellite TV is instantly ineligible.
Once again parents are more than happy to shift the burden of raising their children onto the state.
The optics are absolutely terrible, but this is one area I'd absolutely stand firm and use the 80 seat majority to bat it away and ask Marcus Rashford to run for parliament if he feels so strongly about it.
Boris should say today that the Government will match contributions from premier league players to pay for the school meals in the summer holidays. That would concentrate minds.
Why not set defence funding based on matching what doctors are willing to contribute. Makes as much sense.
I must have missed the part where doctors were demanding that taxpayers float a new frigate...
I fully understand the government making a stand on summer lunch vouchers. It won't be long until they're made permanent and then how long until people start asking for dinner vouchers and eventually it just becomes another type of benefit.
Free school meals in term time make sense as it's for educational purposes. Outside of term time it's yet more entitlement culture. Means test the benefit and any family that has more than one mobile phone contract or paid cable or satellite TV is instantly ineligible.
Once again parents are more than happy to shift the burden of raising their children onto the state.
The optics are absolutely terrible, but this is one area I'd absolutely stand firm and use the 80 seat majority to bat it away and ask Marcus Rashford to run for parliament if he feels so strongly about it.
Hopefully the government has learned its lesson from the u-turn on the NHS levy for overseas staff.
A topic that is mentioned by precisely nobody these days.
Comments
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1272821833478406144?s=09
We will only know how countries have fared when we look at excess deaths once the pandemic is over, and even then that assumes that all countries produce accurate data about such things.
A LPF might reduce any border in the Irish Sea but it would not be staying in a customs union and we could still do our own trade deals
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html
Perhaps we should try something different?
A sort of geopolitical Hippocratic oath, "first do no harm" might not be a bad place to start.
Bureaucratically this is going to be a tricky one. DFID has one of the highest pay scales in Whitehall vs. FCO with one of the lowest...
"Take up the White Man's burden -
The savage wars of peace -
Fill full the mouth of famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought.
Take up the White Man's burden -
No tawdry rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper -
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go make them with your living,
And mark them with your dead !
Take up the White Man's burden -
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard ...
I have had a thought! PB Tories keep saying we can't afford any of this, a view I am sympatheic to, so why not chip in with the sale of the grace and favour tied cottages (country estates) so enjoyed as a perk by Mr Johnson?
Then: Taking a knee is a disgraceful insult to our flag and country.
Now: Why all these violent protests? Peaceful protest is the only way to go.
"We have already left the European Union."
Make schools into social workers, Make schools into childcare. Make schools into providers of basic needs like food.
Now it’s time to rip the whole thing apart, to let schools concentrate on education and to create a system that can independently support children. While we are at it, we need to create an education system that harnesses children’s energies, not something that millions hate so much that they will opt out now they’ve been given the chance to.
I don’t know how many but surely there are other areas that need to seize this moment to make radical and lasting change.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1272830696625704960?s=20
This is going to get dirty
I was only joshing that your fellow travellers were surely overwhelmingly to the left of your current avowed position. I may well continue to josh you along those lines.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1272849887156191232
I'm biting the hand that feeds me to some extent, having made a living out of various aid budgets.
Many commentators noted the diversity of those attending the march. Euan Ferguson noted in The Observer[43] that:
[As well as the] usual suspects – CND, Socialist Workers Party, the anarchists ... There were nuns. Toddlers. Women barristers. The Eton George Orwell Society. Archaeologists Against War. Walthamstow Catholic Church, the Swaffham Women's Choir and Notts County Supporters Say Make Love Not War (And a Home Win against Bristol would be Nice). They won 2-0, by the way. One group of SWP stalwarts were joined, for the first march in any of their histories, by their mothers. There were country folk and lecturers, dentists and poulterers, a hairdresser from Cardiff and a poet from Cheltenham.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_February_2003_anti-war_protests#London
But I am genuinely certain not just pretending to be. Pity there isn't a "No Deal" market on Betfair for me to lay like a lion.
Guess I know why - it's very hard to define with sufficient precision this time.
I'd have thought that's more likely than a reshuffle at such an early stage in the ministry and with both Brexit and Coronavirus at the point they are. My guess is Johnson will look to reshuffle in early to mid 2021 unless something is forced on him early by resignation/scandal.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7415205/PETER-HITCHENS-Crafty-Boris-taking-shocking-liberties.html
Turns out different countries are counting in different ways, some around the world have done it in such a way as to minimise or at least down play the human toll.
China did some very strange things in terms of deciding what constituted a COVID case, especially outside the first province.
Spain has also been in the news recently - there are plenty of others.
Your point about schools remaining shut down is nonsense too since we are talking about arrangements during the school holidays. Schools have been feeding vulnerable kids throughout term time.
We wouldn't want him to be the latest in a long line of fabulously wealthy people who want people of moderate means to pay for their politics.
If thats what we get with this government I will be voting for them next time around!
He really has gone bonkers and links everything back to drug laws.
Oh look a squirrel with Overseas Aid written on it!!!!
https://talksport.com/football/655435/marcus-rashford-representatives-mino-raiola-manchester-united/
David Ornstein, of The Athletic, reported that the kingpin agent met his brothers in a meeting early last year – and both parties impressed each other during the talks.
Speaking on the Chapman and Ornstein podcast, it was claimed Rashford’s representatives were keen for advice on how to grow their younger sibling’s profile in the game.
Well he's done pretty well in that respect today.
"It's a total mess isn't it? Look at the care homes? Look at schools - when are they going to be back? Where is Johnson? What about this app?"
Co-ordinator: "Yes, but what about those statues and the aid budget"
"Well, yeh that's another thing i'm angry about. Now you mention it."
Is he launching Operation Barabarossa before Operation Sealion is successfully complete?
Wales already announced it
I know someone who used to work with this particular example, let's just say I'm not hopeful that she is going to suddenly reveal herself to be a wonderful human being.
they could announce an increase in tax on people earning over a million a year to pay for it - that should make sure many premier league players contribute, if that is what you want.
Translation needed and I am here to help -
"We know we're shafting the oiks on the money so let's get them in a tizz about foreigners and darkies so they won't notice."
I suspect its the latter. But we shall see.
Only big change I can see is a whole lot of red tape and restrictions in travel for UK citizens. Is immigration to the UK going to actually change by the implementation of a points system? A lot of the same people coming together with a selection of new people and some of the old people not coming. What difference do you think that will make to anything?
But in terms of the downside - I have a friend who on retirement sold up and bought a large camper van to spend a few years travelling Europe. He is now stuffed being restricted by the 90 day limit. Completely unnecessary. My children will also not be thanking those who have restricted their life opportunities to travel and work in Europe.
Free school meals in term time make sense as it's for educational purposes. Outside of term time it's yet more entitlement culture. Means test the benefit and any family that has more than one mobile phone contract or paid cable or satellite TV is instantly ineligible.
Once again parents are more than happy to shift the burden of raising their children onto the state.
The optics are absolutely terrible, but this is one area I'd absolutely stand firm and use the 80 seat majority to bat it away and ask Marcus Rashford to run for parliament if he feels so strongly about it.
A topic that is mentioned by precisely nobody these days.
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1272860631679582217