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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » London Calling. The clash over the Tory candidate in London

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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,803

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    It's been linked before but this amazingly prescient analysis is just something else

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=20

    Having witnessed what happened yesterday, and reading the way it is presented today, everything he says is coming exactly true

    I believe we are currently at this stage in that timeline...

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711808312016897?s=20

    Pissy man is going to get the book thrown at him and all media spotlight is going to be on him for days.
    Exactly. And yet where is the hullabaloo over this, a far worse crime?

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1271909671100723207?s=20

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1271904782152806403?s=20

    Feral gangs, hunting down whites and beating them because they are white.

    But yes, let's all go mad about the guy taking a misplaced leak

    Note that the first video has had one MILLION views, so the attempt by the MSM to ignore this is not working, it is merely proving thatKonstantin Kisin is right yet again: this is precisely what he predicts in the NEXT stage: people will notice the bias and get even angrier
    If we counted the posts about the two sets of incidents on here, the condemnations of the fighting would outnumber the condemnation of the pissing by many times. I dont think anyone has suggested the pisser should get more than a fine. Whereas the assaults have been misrepresented as stabbings and attempted murder.
    They were attempted murder. They use bottles, fists and boots, 20 or 30 against 1. A furious crowd can kill a man very quickly, like that, even if no individual is actually set on killing the victim.

    Basic criminology.

    Only the fact the police were so close and so quick saved these guys.

    Once again, the police were the heroes of yesterday. I salute them.
    I have a feeling if the far right mob had been filmed doing that to a black kid, the focus wouldn't be on pissy man.
    You are an informed intelligent poster, please explain how the focus has been on "pissy man"?

    Kinabalu said he shouldnt be treated harshly, I and a couple of others agreed, and ydoethur made a couple of witty puns. Yesterday Ellwood took it personally because he gave CPR to the PC whose statue it was which seems a perfectly normal reaction.

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103
    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Sadiq Khan is an uninspiring mayor. I don't think he has done anything much to deserve a second term, but neither has he done anything particularly catastrophic. He doesn't have the power to. My guess is that he will win whoever the Tories put up against him because right now London does not like the Conservative party very much.

    Why should we like them? They don't like us, except for our money.

    Absolutely. The Tories have decided that one of the ways to remain in power is to paint London as one of the many enemies this country has. A lot of people in London have noticed that.

    London won't have any money by the time this plague is finished with us.

    Drive around the city, you can already see the decay. It will only accelerate: as people work from home, offices empty, restaurants, shops and bars close down. A chain reaction of collapse then follows, as the rich flee, the tax take falls, taxes then rise to compensate, and then the middle class follow the rich. Crime intensifies...

    London could be an English Detroit.
    If that was the case every western city would become like Detroit, including New York and Paris.

    The rich and middle class all moving to the suburbs and countryside
    Indeed that is possible: I foresee dark times for all western megacities, unless we get a good vaccine.

    London, NYC and Paris would be at the top of the list, in terms of likely decline. NYC and Paris were ALREADY shrinking in population before the virus.

    If I had to predict a course for London, it wouldn't be Detroit (I was being colourful) it would be New York in the 70s.

    There is an upside to this: New York in the 70s became so rundown and cheap property in the middle was easy to buy, which attracted young arty types back into the city, NYC became creative and edgy and fun (albeit violent) and so the cycle of decline was slowly reversed, as gentrification surged.

    But that's a long way in the future, and only possible. Short and medium term decay is very probable
    Why not London in the Seventies? With working from home, retrenchment in the finance industry, rising unemployment, racial tension on the rise, it all sounds quite familiar to me. Middle class flight to the suburbs and leave London to the Droogs and ultraviolence.
    Minder and the Sweeney set among the 2030s decay.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which would all be useless if having given up Trident Putin decided to invade us and we could do little to stop him.

    Why doesn't Putin invade Sweden next weekend?
    Because he's calculated it's not worth the cost. For now.

    But if a country has second-strike nuclear capability, then invading it will never be worth the cost.

    Simples.
    Should the time arrive when Putin decides to invade Western Europe, our nuclear strike capability won't be what puts him off. It is all down to what Uncle Sam does next, and if Putin has a friendly face in the Whitehouse, happy to undermine Nato, and quite content for Putin to fill his boots, I suspect should the desire take him, the ground forces move in.

    If Boris struggles with making decisions about more mundane issues like when to time a lockdown, he will be overwhelmed by all the letters he has to write to himself if he is called to command a nuclear strike.
    On the contrary - his record of writing two opposing letters on critical issues will be sure to keep the enemy guessing.

    "Does my letter say 'Ah, just let it go!' or 'Turn everything west of the Urals into glass'? The real question, Vladimir, is 'Do you feel lucky?' Well, do ya, панк?"

    As for what would actually happen in that scenario, we can't control the US, but 200 British warheads is more than enough to ruin anyone's day...
    I am not sure you understand the implications of Johnson having to ask Putin 'if he feels lucky'. It won't just be just the West of the Urals that will look like a moonscape.
    Yes, that's the whole point of the word 'mutually' in 'mutually-assured destruction'. Neither side wants to end up living on the moon as a fine layer of ash, so they never put themselves in a situation that would produce that conclusion.
    So as Russian ground forces pick off each European Country one by one, and President Trump, enjoying his second term, but otherwise occupied by a racially based civil war, does nothing about it. The ball is in Boris' court, does he launch a nuclear first strike?
    At least he would have the choice, as would Macron.

    In such a scenario Putin would have overrun most of the rest of western Europe with Russian forces, he would only hesitate about France and the UK which both have nuclear weapons
    As the Russian Army pause before entering Alsace Lorraine, the game is already up and we are all buggered!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:
    I'm happy with Johnson as PM, but I'm quite happy to have Sunak as the alternative. My legendary modesty prevents me mentioning why.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,990
    kinabalu said:

    Burning question for this PB moment -

    Do people who big up the far right and spread their racist propaganda usually believe in far right ideas?

    Or is it more likely to be trolling?

    I find it difficult to enter the mindset (and literature doesn’t help - I know of no ‘Tommy Robinson’ figure in the canon, depicted in all his flawed complexity), but I suspect the former. It’s just instinct, nothing more - take that for what it’s worth.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,803
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Sadiq Khan is an uninspiring mayor. I don't think he has done anything much to deserve a second term, but neither has he done anything particularly catastrophic. He doesn't have the power to. My guess is that he will win whoever the Tories put up against him because right now London does not like the Conservative party very much.

    Why should we like them? They don't like us, except for our money.

    Absolutely. The Tories have decided that one of the ways to remain in power is to paint London as one of the many enemies this country has. A lot of people in London have noticed that.

    London won't have any money by the time this plague is finished with us.

    Drive around the city, you can already see the decay. It will only accelerate: as people work from home, offices empty, restaurants, shops and bars close down. A chain reaction of collapse then follows, as the rich flee, the tax take falls, taxes then rise to compensate, and then the middle class follow the rich. Crime intensifies...

    London could be an English Detroit.
    If that was the case every western city would become like Detroit, including New York and Paris.

    The rich and middle class all moving to the suburbs and countryside
    Indeed that is possible: I foresee dark times for all western megacities, unless we get a good vaccine.

    London, NYC and Paris would be at the top of the list, in terms of likely decline. NYC and Paris were ALREADY shrinking in population before the virus.

    If I had to predict a course for London, it wouldn't be Detroit (I was being colourful) it would be New York in the 70s.

    There is an upside to this: New York in the 70s became so rundown and cheap property in the middle was easy to buy, which attracted young arty types back into the city, NYC became creative and edgy and fun (albeit violent) and so the cycle of decline was slowly reversed, as gentrification surged.

    But that's a long way in the future, and only possible. Short and medium term decay is very probable
    Why not London in the Seventies? With working from home, retrenchment in the finance industry, rising unemployment, racial tension on the rise, it all sounds quite familiar to me. Middle class flight to the suburbs and leave London to the Droogs and ultraviolence.
    Because London will now have added race war, making it more like NYC in the 70s, than its dear old self
    There is no race war in London and wont be however much you pathetically hope there is.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,534

    NEW THREAD

    With a first available easier than at Oxford.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,732

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which would all be useless if having given up Trident Putin decided to invade us and we could do little to stop him.

    Why doesn't Putin invade Sweden next weekend?
    Because he's calculated it's not worth the cost. For now.

    But if a country has second-strike nuclear capability, then invading it will never be worth the cost.

    Simples.
    Simples? Really? What about him not having any interest whatsoever in doing so?

    I'm no fan of Putin, but I don't think he is sitting there weighing up the odds on which countries to invade.

    I suspect the only ones that comes to mind are ones where there is an historic relationship.
    British/English exceptionalism is psychologically incapable of accepting that the UK just isn't really worth invading. Getting rid of Trident would be an admission of irrelevance too far.
    We are still a top 10 global economy and as a Scot you should know we have lots of oil too.

    Of course we are worth invading by the leader of a poorer country with a stronger military like Putin
    I assume this is tongue in cheek HYUFD. You don't really think Putin is sitting there with a box of pins and a map thinking who it is worth invading and who he can get away with invading do you?

    The UK is not an ex Soviet Union or satellite state. Luxembourg looks a bit tasty shall we have a go at them?
    Putin is essentially a dictator, if he could get away with it he would annexe most of western Europe to Russia
    Why? Even Hitler had a logical (if barking) reason for invading Russia. Why would Putin want to invade Western Europe?
    It is far wealthier than Russia but now with smaller armed forces
    One thing that many people don't understand about Russia is the mythology of the Soviet Union that Putin and other nationalists promote -

    - There is no Ukrainian language, just a dialect of Russian
    - Ukraine isn't a real country
    - All the countries that were part of the Soviet Union were really Russian.
    - Everyone in such countries were really happier when the Russians were in control.
    - Eastern Europe should be controlled by Russia by right.

    etc. etc. getting ever more extreme as you go further and further off the scale.

    The parallels with other Imperialisms are striking.

    Yes, particularly our own!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,515
    NHS England numbers out - 27. Yes, 27

    Extremely low even for weekend reporting

    image
    image
    image
    image
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,232
    Attack on North Britain, day 2.

    Monuments still unscathed so these guys are doing a great job.

    https://twitter.com/SunScotNational/status/1272142241180467202?s=20
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    It's been linked before but this amazingly prescient analysis is just something else

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=20

    Having witnessed what happened yesterday, and reading the way it is presented today, everything he says is coming exactly true

    I believe we are currently at this stage in that timeline...

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711808312016897?s=20

    Pissy man is going to get the book thrown at him and all media spotlight is going to be on him for days.
    Exactly. And yet where is the hullabaloo over this, a far worse crime?

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1271909671100723207?s=20

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1271904782152806403?s=20

    Feral gangs, hunting down whites and beating them because they are white.

    But yes, let's all go mad about the guy taking a misplaced leak

    Note that the first video has had one MILLION views, so the attempt by the MSM to ignore this is not working, it is merely proving thatKonstantin Kisin is right yet again: this is precisely what he predicts in the NEXT stage: people will notice the bias and get even angrier
    If we counted the posts about the two sets of incidents on here, the condemnations of the fighting would outnumber the condemnation of the pissing by many times. I dont think anyone has suggested the pisser should get more than a fine. Whereas the assaults have been misrepresented as stabbings and attempted murder.
    They were attempted murder. They use bottles, fists and boots, 20 or 30 against 1. A furious crowd can kill a man very quickly, like that, even if no individual is actually set on killing the victim.

    Basic criminology.

    Only the fact the police were so close and so quick saved these guys.

    Once again, the police were the heroes of yesterday. I salute them.
    I have a feeling if the far right mob had been filmed doing that to a black kid, the focus wouldn't be on pissy man.
    if the "Football Lads" had done what I saw BLM do, hunt down lone whites to beat them to a pulp, and possibly kill them, we would now have 24/7 news coverage, and possibly Prince Charles weeping in the Mall, and covering himself in ashes, livestreamed on YouTube.
    How many did the BLM kill? You keep referring to people getting potentially stabbed, killed or more - yet there don't seem to be any Met reports for anything like that.

    Conspiracy by the Met to not be reporting on that, or maybe you've made a mistake?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,501

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which would all be useless if having given up Trident Putin decided to invade us and we could do little to stop him.

    Why doesn't Putin invade Sweden next weekend?
    Because he's calculated it's not worth the cost. For now.

    But if a country has second-strike nuclear capability, then invading it will never be worth the cost.

    Simples.
    Simples? Really? What about him not having any interest whatsoever in doing so?

    I'm no fan of Putin, but I don't think he is sitting there weighing up the odds on which countries to invade.

    I suspect the only ones that comes to mind are ones where there is an historic relationship.
    British/English exceptionalism is psychologically incapable of accepting that the UK just isn't really worth invading. Getting rid of Trident would be an admission of irrelevance too far.
    We are still a top 10 global economy and as a Scot you should know we have lots of oil too.

    Of course we are worth invading by the leader of a poorer country with a stronger military like Putin
    I assume this is tongue in cheek HYUFD. You don't really think Putin is sitting there with a box of pins and a map thinking who it is worth invading and who he can get away with invading do you?

    The UK is not an ex Soviet Union or satellite state. Luxembourg looks a bit tasty shall we have a go at them?
    Putin is essentially a dictator, if he could get away with it he would annexe most of western Europe to Russia
    Why? Even Hitler had a logical (if barking) reason for invading Russia. Why would Putin want to invade Western Europe?
    It is far wealthier than Russia but now with smaller armed forces
    One thing that many people don't understand about Russia is the mythology of the Soviet Union that Putin and other nationalists promote -

    - There is no Ukrainian language, just a dialect of Russian
    - Ukraine isn't a real country
    - All the countries that were part of the Soviet Union were really Russian.
    - Everyone in such countries were really happier when the Russians were in control.
    - Eastern Europe should be controlled by Russia by right.

    etc. etc. getting ever more extreme as you go further and further off the scale.

    The parallels with other Imperialisms are striking.

    That's a good reason to suggest that Putin wants to invade (or preferably control - nobody wants to subdue and administrate additional territory if they can govern through proxies) his near neighbours. I think few of us would disagree with that, and it's in line with Russian policy for probably hundreds of years.

    What it isn't, is a good reason why Putin would want to 'invade Western Europe'. To that question, I still await any kind of answer, however vague.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sadiq Khan is an uninspiring mayor. I don't think he has done anything much to deserve a second term, but neither has he done anything particularly catastrophic. He doesn't have the power to. My guess is that he will win whoever the Tories put up against him because right now London does not like the Conservative party very much.

    Why should we like them? They don't like us, except for our money.

    Absolutely. The Tories have decided that one of the ways to remain in power is to paint London as one of the many enemies this country has. A lot of people in London have noticed that.

    Until 1997 the Tories needed to win London as, along with the Midlands, it was the key swing region in the country, almost always voting for the party which won the general election.

    Now however London is the safest Labour region in the UK, as 2019 showed even less of a prospect for the Tories than the North of England and Wales, so the Tories do not need to win London to win a general election outside a few seats mostly in the suburbs.

    Indeed despite a UK wide majority of 80 the Tories now only hold 3 seats in the whole of inner London, Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and 2/3 of those are marginal seats
    That’s a slippery slope. Imagine if the SNP had taken a similar attitude to the impenetrable Labour fortresses of the Central Belt during the 1990s and 2000s. We would have failed to slowly but steadily build up our bases in dozens of Labour seats with immense majorities. Those tough, thankless decades of hard slog and preparation made the eventual breakthrough possible. It did not happen overnight.

    Sounds to me like the Tories have simply given up on London. Unwise.
    That is a slightly different matter, the SNP needed to win most of the Central Belt to get a majority in Scotland. Hence Scotland shifted from a Labour to SNP majority from 2007 to 2015 as the SNP started to win Labour seats in the Central Belt.

    As 2019 showed the Tories do not need to win most of London to get a UK wide majority
    I’ll take that as a yes: the Tories have simply given up on London.
    London is about as important to the Tories as the Scottish Borders are to the SNP, even now most Scottish Borders MPs are Tory despite the SNP majority across Scotland, just as most London MPs are Labour despite the Tory majority across the UK
    London as important as Kelso.

    Oooookkkeeeeyyyy... (backs away slowly from the madman...)
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,803
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    It's been linked before but this amazingly prescient analysis is just something else

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=20

    Having witnessed what happened yesterday, and reading the way it is presented today, everything he says is coming exactly true

    I believe we are currently at this stage in that timeline...

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711808312016897?s=20

    Pissy man is going to get the book thrown at him and all media spotlight is going to be on him for days.
    Exactly. And yet where is the hullabaloo over this, a far worse crime?

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1271909671100723207?s=20

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1271904782152806403?s=20

    Feral gangs, hunting down whites and beating them because they are white.

    But yes, let's all go mad about the guy taking a misplaced leak

    Note that the first video has had one MILLION views, so the attempt by the MSM to ignore this is not working, it is merely proving thatKonstantin Kisin is right yet again: this is precisely what he predicts in the NEXT stage: people will notice the bias and get even angrier
    If we counted the posts about the two sets of incidents on here, the condemnations of the fighting would outnumber the condemnation of the pissing by many times. I dont think anyone has suggested the pisser should get more than a fine. Whereas the assaults have been misrepresented as stabbings and attempted murder.
    They were attempted murder. They use bottles, fists and boots, 20 or 30 against 1. A furious crowd can kill a man very quickly, like that, even if no individual is actually set on killing the victim.

    Basic criminology.

    Only the fact the police were so close and so quick saved these guys.

    Once again, the police were the heroes of yesterday. I salute them.
    I have a feeling if the far right mob had been filmed doing that to a black kid, the focus wouldn't be on pissy man.
    if the "Football Lads" had done what I saw BLM do, hunt down lone whites to beat them to a pulp, and possibly kill them, we would now have 24/7 news coverage, and possibly Prince Charles weeping in the Mall, and covering himself in ashes, livestreamed on YouTube.
    You are wilfully naive if you think such attacks dont also happen to minorities on a regular basis.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    Pure comedy gold.

    How will GE 2024 turn out if a new UKIP/Brexit Party or similar takes 5% of the vote? Unevenly spread, that will cause total havoc for the Tories in many seats.
    The Tories had a 5 to 8% lead in the polls last night, so would still be at least tied, plus don't assume all the Brexit Party votes would come from the Tories.

    In any case now Brexit is done and provided free movement is ended the BXP will do far less damage to Boris than they did to May
    Brexit is not “done”. Brexit will never be “done”, because you failed to build a solid case and you failed to take people with you.

    Brexit will be “done” when it works in people’s interests and is seen to be working in people’s interests. Which is never.

    The only way Brexit will ever be “done” is when England finally re-joins. Which she will. When she finally realises that she is just another normal country among many others.
    The great irony is that without the 13 Conservative MPs returned by Scotland in 2017, Theresa May would never have been able to stay in power, Boris wouldn't have been able to become PM, and Brexit might never have happened at all.

    The Brexiteers truly owe Scotland an eternal debt of gratitude - they literally couldn't have done it without you.
    Beware of jocks bearing gifts.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
    edited June 2020

    kinabalu said:

    Burning question for this PB moment -

    Do people who big up the far right and spread their racist propaganda usually believe in far right ideas?

    Or is it more likely to be trolling?

    the people who big up the Far Right are usually the Far Left
    True - where "big up" equals "exaggerate the influence of".

    But that's not quite what I meant. I'm talking about where ostensibly quite intelligent people go onto the internet - e.g. on here - and hint at support for the far right and appear to favour the cause.

    Is this coming from the heart or is it likely to be trolling?

    This is what I'm wondering, Alan.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Pure comedy gold.

    How will GE 2024 turn out if a new UKIP/Brexit Party or similar takes 5% of the vote? Unevenly spread, that will cause total havoc for the Tories in many seats.
    What better way to get the tories to do what you want? its worked before.

    THis isn;t about Europe. Farage senses people are more appalled about the authorities' response to BLM than is being reported. They are very angry.

    Cue a whole load of speeches in the Featherstones and the Newports about the tory betrayal of our traditions blah blah blah

    Cue a rise in the polls.

    Cue tory panic.

    Remember when the Tories used to bang on about Labour being steered from Moscow?

    Well, now it’s the Tories being steered from Berlin. Old Berlin. By a new apostle.

    When are the Tories going to grow a pair and tell Farage and his storm troopers to go away and copulate?

    Good point.

    Trouble is, this government has shown itself to be very open to political intimidation,. And Farage is the biggest heavy of them all.
    When did the Tories lose their self-confidence? They were famous for it during the 1980s, when it often tipped over into arrogance.

    Now, they cower like timrous beasties before the mighty Nigel. It must be all the own-goals, and unforced errors that have drained their mojo.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,958

    A quick betting question related to TSE's post - I have a years old paper betting slip (don't ask - I was a noob and terrified of getting an account online) with Ladbrokes on George Osborne to win the '2020' London Mayoral at 200/1 buried somewhere. Does the postponement make that void and entitle me to my stake back or is it being settled next year?

    Should be voided - so take back to the shop and ask for your stake back.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    I wonder if Farage is going to repeat the same non-transparent funding trick with TBP that he pulled off last time?

    System working well, send more money.
    He has no intention of launching the party; it’s just the hook he has to deploy to get into the media.
    He's an attention whore who's no longer got LBC.
    He was sacked for comparing the Bristol statue destroyers to Afghani statue destroyers.

    Do you believe in free speech?
This discussion has been closed.