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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Twenty thousand excess pandemic deaths could be Johnson’s political legacy
Whenever the pandemic is over and we return to normal life the politics of what has happened over these last few months are going to dominate the political agenda perhaps until the next general election.
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The torpor at the heart of Johnson's Government, which we are witnessing again over schools, directly led to increased deaths from coronavirus in this country. Unquestionably.
Many of us knew Johnson was unsuitable for the job, we just didn't expect something as pernicious as this virus to flush him out.
And let's not ignore the point that the BLM riots are Corbyn's legacy. No 5 years of him, no large enough scale radicalisation for this to happen. Winning the argument you might call it.
What was wrong was the spin that somebody put on it - that we could be "out of this crisis" by then.
On topic, Professor Lockdown thinks we should have locked down earlier. You can find other experts who say it would have made little difference. I'm sure this academic debate will rage for a decade, long after the public has turned to other matters.
His explanation on scientists vs politicians and their relative responsibilities is excellent.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/why-i-broke-boris-johnson
“ . Key talents had been reshuffled out of the cabinet because they had committed the sin of independent-mindedness. The top table was left with a very middle-ranking membership. Ministerial special advisers who dared to differ had been dispatched and years of hard-won experience lost in the process. MPs learned that messages to the Prime Minister needed to be effusive to have much hope of a reply. More often than not, any critical messages – how- ever constructively worded – were greeted with silence.”
“ the team inside today’s No 10 has often preferred to greet internal dissent with retribution – much of it pre-briefed to favoured journalists. ”
“ I could see the car crash coming and I couldn’t bear to be part of it.”
“.. his former wife, Marina..was his anchor and, despite everything, had been for most of his adulthood“
“Many MPs...no longer believe in the Prime Minister in the way they did”
Say it ain’t so...
In other news, Rory is now speaking on R4
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1270977517814456321
Scottish unionists might flip Tory to Labour to protect it, so he could get 20-25 seats in Scotland (Tories down to 2-3 again).
He'd still have to do a Cameron and swipe 100+ in England though. Seems insurmountable but the electorate is so volatile these days I could see it happening if he stays moderate and Boris totally botches the economic recovery.
The tide has been turned (I don't think it says the virus will be sent packing) and restrictions are being lifted.
A better criticism would be why we're still in lockdown.
Boris will be found out whilst in office.
Which makes it similar to the rest of the UK establishment.
If the Imperial model, with the wrong doubling time, had suggested the soft restrictions approach was fine, then there would be an issue. It may well have been wise not to come back to the government with a revised estimate when the original was dire enough to make the point and they probably weren't certain of the doubling time at that point - it's a bit hard to pick out as you're not sure what's community transmission (which you need to work out the doubling time and what's incoming cases).
Right, got it.
Are they suggesting that all the countries which acted more proactively weren't 'guided by the science' ?
What is most contemptible is not the mistakes they have made, but their refusal to admit to them.
Like the carcinogens that triple cancer risk, from 1 in 3 million to 1 in 1 million.
The second key error was insufficient testing.
Which makes it a bit frustrating that everyone is placing so much reliance on them.
Maybe, but remember how tides behave.
So you're saying it would have been much better if we'd left last year?
Yes, some Scottish unionists will flip Tory to Labour to protect it, but nowhere near enough to get 20-25 seats in Scotland. And the Union might not make it to 2024 anyway.
Yes, he could still do a Cameron and swipe 100+ in England because the electorate is so volatile these days.
Yes, I too could see it happening if he stays moderate and Boris totally botches the economic recovery.
Both proved deeply flawed.
The attempts by the scientists involved on one side, and the government on the other, to put the blame on their counterparts is a depressing spectacle.
I'd call it unedifying - but it does provide a moral example, albeit a negative one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu
or 100 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
There will be others in the future.
The whole basis of science is acknowledging when reality proves your beliefs to have been incorrect.
1) We have paid the price of London pushing to be the main international business hub in Europe and in particular having Heathrow Airport. It is already clear from anecdotal evidence that Covid-19 had been brought into the UK weeks before anyone was taking it as seriously in the west as we should have done. We are all paying the price for labelling it "the Chinese disease" as President Trump was so happy to call it.
2) Different people around the world have different genetic make up. If you happen to come from the Orkney Isles, you have an infinitely great chance of suffering from multiple sclerosis than from anywhere else in the UK let alone the rest of the world. It is a well accepted fact that people from south-east Asia and the Indian continent in particular have a naturally greater chance of having diabetes. Diabetics seem to be particularly prone to the most severe cases of Covid-19. BAME people have naturally lower levels of vitamin D in their bodies because with dark skin they don't have to fight against the effects of strong sunshine as white Europeans. Medics are drawing a connection between Vitamin D levels , suppressed immune systems and Covid-19
I happened to look at the leaflet which accompanied the new statin my doctor has put me on. It states that under no circumstances should people from China, Japan, Indonesia, SE Asia or India take the medication That isn't racist, it is based on medical evidence.
3) The one thing no-one has dared mention. From the constant news coverage, the overwhelming majority of those who have died from Covid-19 ranged from being badly overweight to morbidly obese. I have been shocked at how many of the medical personnel who have died were clearly grossly overweight. You can see it in the photos of them. So many don't have a clearly defined neck. Their head just sits on their shoulders because they were so overweight. You see the grieving family members being interviewed and a great many of them are seriously overweight. Covid-19 clearly goes for the "takeaway food" generation.
There is no doubt that Boris and his government has made mistakes in handling this crisis. But so has Nicola Sturgeon, the Labour man in Wales and Arlene and her Sinn Fein colleague in Belfast. No one political party in the UK can claim the high ground on this. We haven't seen a pandemic like this since Spanish Flu part 2 in 1919.
Too many of the experts carping from the background have an axe to grind. They haven't had to take the decisions.
It is also fair to say many countries including China and Russia are not telling the truth about Covid in their countries. One of our ex-MEPs told me a month ago his sources in the Iranian opposition had indicated their death toll was north of 50,000 2 months ago but they admit to 6,000.
For that alone Boris Johnson and plenty of Brexiteers deserve the whirlwind coming their way.
Brings us back to the point: why on earth was the entire UK virus strategy based around one model, from one university?
The one thing we are genuinely are world beating is our gold standard ONS.
That’s causing the PM problems.
There are over 25 Scottish seats in Labour's top 150 targets. In an environment where there' a change in sentiment UK-wide and the chance of a change of UK Government I'd expect a level of split-ticket voting by some SNP supporters who want to kick the Tories out, and some Unionist tactical voting.
Turns out London Mayor is about his level.
(I'm not sure Khan even matches that, by the way)
Egregiously tendencious.
Water Cannon.
The Garden Bridge.
Chart here
In No. 10 he appears mostly to be relying on Cummings, which isn't going so well, and is struggling with his first real exposure to scrutiny and accountability.
Boris's bias to cheery optimism plus the fear of economic consequences made them opt for delay and hoping the more optimistic models were right. In this sort of situation we need realism and caution rather than the mixture of optimism and can-do spirit that are appropriate for good times. And that's not just a judgment in hindsight. We need precisely the same now, and I'm not sure we're getting it.
New positive cases down by 75% since it was used.
What they reveal is interesting, what they hide is much more fascinating.