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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My poll finding of the Year – the massive gap between perce
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My poll finding of the Year – the massive gap between perception and reality over the nature of the UK
Yesterday morning I posted the above Ipsos-MORI chart which within a few hours became something of a Twitter sensation. By early afternoon it made me the most referred to Tweeter in the UK and it continues to have a big impact.
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Why is Mike Smithson trending? *Innocent Face*
Are you - or is it just a misguided perception...?
For one, the median is more accurate: http://imgur.com/RVfVRl5
Additionally that still doesn't take account of outliers, some of which are ridiculous. Maybe people think that, maybe they don't: such as the 8% of people who thought that more than 50% of people were unemployed or the 5% of people who think that more than 50% of people are Muslim.
If you consider that "unemployment" in the ONS definition - actively seeking a job and available for work - doesn't align with the everyday meaning, that closes further. Some difference remain, but not as significant.
The religious ones are meaningless nonsense. For this survey, am I Christian if I tick that box with a vague theory that it helps my insurance premiums, and because I go to church every Christmas? Or is there some Jesusness threshold to achieve before this survey gives you that badge?
Unemployed is just a comparison of bodged govt statistics against you suspecting that the builder next door is also signing on.
Ditto the coke-fiend whore across the road with the string of dealer boyfriends whose daughter is being cared for around the clock by the nice Asian men in that spare room above the local taxi firm ... does she make the survey criteria as a 'single mother' just because she's claiming the benefits?
I presume that single parent means a parent that exclusively brings up a child, but I wonder if most people have a broader definition, and Christian what does that mean? It could run from celebrates Christmas and Easter, through to attends church every Sunday.
Interesting question about the famous Thatcher "no such thing as society" quote, as I've said before when you see the context of the conversation that quote came from it has an entirely different meaning, and one that has very considerable support.
One comment on the previous thread, which made for excellent reading btw and many thanks to everyone who contributed. First time I have read a whole thread for a while.
I was in hospital yesterday and overheard some midwives discussing Scotland. It was an eclectic north London group and they all seemed to believe the 'subsidy myth'. I would have started putting them right and pointing out that Scotland pretty well pays it's way but my wife may have murdered me.
And no, I am not a father yet. The wee bugger changed its mind!
Wiki also notes:
"The Ipsos MORI poll in 2003 reported that 18% were "a practising member of an organised religion".[40] The Tearfund Survey in 2007 found that only 7% of the population considered themselves as practising Christians. Ten per cent attend church weekly and two-thirds had not gone to church in the past year.[47][50] The Tearfund Survey also found that two thirds of UK adults (66%) or 32.2 million people have no connection with the Church at present (nor with another religion). These people were evenly divided between those who have been in the past but have since left (16 million) and those who have never been in their lives (16.2 million)."
About 6% go to church regularly.
What was that about lies, damned lies and statistics?
I'd second the view that these figures seem largely malleable.
Take Black/Asian. Hamilton and Obama are usually talked of (even by themselves) as being black, but both have a black and a white parent. What if someone has a Japanese and a black parent?
However, it's still fair to say there would appear to be a substantial dividing line between widespread perception and actual reality. It's almost as vast as the gaping hole between the Lib Dems' desire to join the euro and economic sense
That presumably means that 22.2% are not. Are they not one definition of unemployed?
Seems to me that public perception is, on that measure, absolutely spot on.
And here, you will find that between 1991 and 2011 (the last year for which data was available) there was essentially no difference in employment rate. 62% of people above the age of 15 have jobs. Which, when one eliminates people in education, the retired, and those looking after children, looks about right.
So: while you can go for the government is lying about the economy, crime, etc. line, it's worth noting that when the data is collected by other organisations, they come to very similar conclusions. Whatever you suspect about the coke dealing guy, he is in a very, very small minority.
The figures for unemployed and Christian aren't necessarily wrong, as both terms can be defined in several different ways.
Over time, economic activity (as a % of the population) has tended to rise, simply because women no longer give up work the moment they get married / have children any more.
And yes, on one definition a person who is no longer working is unemployed. He or she may not be looking for work but they are still unemployed.
I have a feeling I am being a kill joy about this so I am going to stop now and get back to my work.
It's very rare that something comes along that changes one's mind: that FT piece has changed mine. I'm genuinely shocked at how much worse 'free school meal' kids do in the grammar school areas.
The builder next door could be doing exactly the same thing year on year and yet appear and disappear from the official figures on a six monthly basis depending on the whims or rosette of the minister of the day.
As for the single mother example; you say that she is a tiny minority. Agreed, but even when there is only one on an estate everyone knows about the regular fights and police raids. So perception of the issue indeed outweighs the hard statistics. But that wasn't my point - it was ask how/if she fits into the statistics ... and therefore my suggestion that the statistics are too misleading and subjective to have any meaning.
The wider point is that you can count the "real" figures in that survey a hundred different ways and get a hundred different "real" values. If you take issue with any of my specific examples then just consider the broad definition of Christians. That's easiest to show as a really weak part in the survey.
I have comfortable more atheist Jewish friends, than true believer ones. And they all have Friday night supper with their parents.
Presumably, the 60% of people who are 'Christians' are people who self identify as Christians. That may not be good enough for you, but it as at least easy to measures.
Actually on a personal level the majority of my Jewish friends are observant rather than atheist, but that comes I guess from living in a Jewish area. My house has, as a reminder of the previous occupants, timers on the light switches and a split kosher/non-kosher kitchen for example.
All interesting, and many thanks for your replies. I can't see anything useful from this survey but at least it's diluted the Scotlandery for a few hours.
The same goes for crime figures.
Wretched against the top 1/2 teams. Still there's always the League Cup....
Actually, many Muslims probably would answer Yes to the second question but do not pray , for example. A good percentage also drink alcohol.
But most are "culturally" Muslim. That applies even more so with Jews. They are less religious but still Jewish !
Lots of people identify as religious despite being entirely atheist. I think, however, that this is trend is on the a wane. i discovered that my wife had ticked the CoE box on the census form in 2001, as she was brought up CoE and went to a CoE school. I asked her why and her friend also said she'd done the same. Neither believe in God. In 2011, both ticked None when asked what their religion was.
Is this a good time to mention that Spurs' scouts didn't think Suarez wasn't good enough, so Liverpool signed him instead in 2011.
Thank your Spurs Scouts.
Also, Luis Suarez has scored 17 premier league goals this season, and Spurs have scored 15 league goals all season? And Super Luis missed the first five league matches of this season.
Also AVB next out surely?
Uh oh AVB....
oops a 5th, it's now worse than West Broms
suarez is possibly the most entertaining footballer i've ever seen. he's what you'd get if you crossed roy keane and freddie mercury
When you take all these out, we probably end up saying that approx 1-in-8 women with children aged 0 to 16 are 'single parents'.
"In my experience a lot of areas outside London are like that. It is one of those bumpkin attitudes that feeds into the the hatred of London."
Really? A lot of areas?
You don't get out of London much, do you? I live in about as deep a Shire as you can get, you and poor old Surby would probably have a panic attack just driving through my village. I never experience the kind of ignorant, stereotypical bigotry that you and Surbs are displaying tonight.
"Unspoofable" is the term, I believe?
I do get out of London, very often.
In total , 7% of the voting populatiion think of themselves as UKIP. This is the base level now.
*see what I did there - puns aplenty
We like to hunt Labour supporters.
*A very bad Muslim
NB - I did once answer a survey asking if I'd be concerned if an ethnic minority or Muslim family moved in next door, I did say yes.
Scrapheap_as_was • Posts: 999
11:41AM
The last time English cricket had such a bad Sunday, Spurs managed to lose 6-0 to a team competing with them for Champs League positions...
Oh gawd....
Scrapheap_as_was • Posts: 1,000
3:13PM
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Oh no, only Dawson as recognised CB..... against Suarez...
"As someone who is both Asian and Muslim*, and has, and does live in the Shires,"
"NB - I did once answer a survey asking if I'd be concerned if an ethnic minority or Muslim family moved in next door, I did say yes."
---------------
Your Conservative Party membership is safe !
Andre-Villas Boas talks prompted Liverpool decision to sack Kenny Dalglish
FORMER Chelsea manager Andre Villas-Boas has reportedly held talks with Liverpool over replacing sacked boss Kenny Dalglish at Anfield.
http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/320709/Andre-Villas-Boas-talks-prompted-Liverpool-decision-to-sack-Kenny-Dalglish
Loved him in Lawrence of Arabia.
Dore is in Sheffield!
Agree,where did the figures come from & can they be trusted.
BBC News - Police fix crime statistics to meet targets, MPs told
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25002927
Join the debate at #bbcfootball
Nick Wheeler: Worst Spurs performance for at least two weeks. Awful, just awful.
I've got just £69 at risk
'Want to believe only those statistics which reinforce your prejudices?'
How many times was that being said about crime statistics not being the reality on the ground,then we find out the police were fiddling the statistics.
What a ridiculous statement about official statistics. Time, even at your age, that you grew up.
LABOUR 34% UKIP 30% CONSERVATIVES 28% LIBDEMS 5% GREENS 1%
Sampling Dec 11-13. Figures overall for England and Wales 36/20/30/8/4.
Wow. People are losing their tribal affiliation. Could be some seismic changes on the way.
CDU get Home Office, Finance, Defence, Education and Health
CSU have Agricolture, Transports, Economic Cooperation & Development
SPD get Foreign Affairs, Economy & Energy, Labour & Social Affairs, Justice, Family and Environment
I can't say I'm surprised by any of Ipsos-MORI's findings.
A wide schism between perception and reality identifies British culture.
That is why there remain a few, even on PB, who believe Ed Miliband will become PM in 2015.
It's the equivalent of stating we had a really hot summer last year, therefore its obvious global warming is happening, or it was a white christmas, therefore it cant possibly be happening.
Simon Johnson @FootballAgent31
Fabio Capello has been hired as the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur with immediate effect. Club statement incoming. #thfc
Retweeted by John Mullin
My experience is nothing like that - I have lived both in London and various places outside.