Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the start of lockdown Johnson’s Tories had poll leads of up

1246

Comments

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224

    I'm really struggling to see what we think we're wandering into with this all-purpose 'look how awful Dominic Cummings' family is'. It's quite disturbing.
    Well, the witch-hunt against the primary target failed, so now the witch-hunters will just go after his family instead.

    It's an attitude more medieval than Chillingham Castle itself...
    The medieval period being well known for its scurrilous press...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    That does look disturbing. I'm actually scared to click on it but I suppose I will.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019



    But I don't see it like that: there is no cunning plan here. The idea that Cummings and the government he runs can realistically bomb the economy back to the stone age and start again with a pure Chicago school ideology doesn't fit with the populist anti-austerity messaging.

    There is no political will for a major restructuring of the UK economy: there would be mass unrest if it was attempted and restructure to what anyway? The UK's Labour costs are too high and changing the infrastructure into a high tech post-industrial society would be close to impossible.

    They're just chancers: having a blog with formulas in it doesn't mean you have a great vision for the country, Cummings may have opinions on how the UK works at the moment but a clear, consistent and most importantly achievable plan to change it for the better and in a way that doesn't cause mass unrest, he doesn't have. Nothing that has been said so far indicates it either.

    Yep. We'll have five to ten years of Sports Direct Britain. Then fascism.

    All of this is a 24/6/16 prediction.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Who cares what Dominic Cumming's wife's father says / thinks? Seriously. He's a private citizen, if he's foaming-dog-fever crazy that's his right.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Visited. Easy slip for a G-S alumnus.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    eristdoof said:

    TimT said:

    Andrew said:


    Duration, Distance, MASSSKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKS...


    Saw a thing from Japan, where they judge public transport isn't really a big danger ..... because everyone wears masks.

    Also interesting they think the fact nobody is speaking matters (presumably because it means less virus getting expelled?)
    Speech expels more of the size of droplet that is most effective in carrying the virus, and further. So speech indoors without masks seems to be one of the biggest contributors to transmission.

    Pronunciation of the 'th' sound is the worst, as it flips the tongue out to an open mouth with heavier exhalation than most other phonemes. Had not thought about it before now, but given that 'the' is the most common word in the English language, I wonder if this has contributed to the outcomes in the UK and USA?

    PS that, their, there, them, they, then, this, these and than all also make the top 100 in English.
    Hmm thounds dodgy to me. Which other languages have the Th sound? Spain (check) but not Latin American Spanish but Ecuador and Mexico are hot spots. Greek has lots of thetas but Greece is low down on the deaths per capita list.
    Belgium, Switzerland and Italy have been hit hard with no "Th" sound anywhere to be seen. And Australia/New Zealand have been sucess stories who of course speak English.
    Sounds like a load of old cobblers.
    There's going to be a massively greater difference between someone speaking in a soft voice, or singing/shouting than that between the speakers of two different languages.
    And of course the difference between (say) Roy Hattersley and you average bod...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Trying to think of other areas of human activity where a bloke might try something for a short time to check if he has the stamina to do it for much longer.

    Not much springs to mind. Painting a ceiling maybe?
    Anal?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Chris said:


    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

    Ah, right, yes I agree. There doesn't seem to be anywhere (except perhaps some of the worst-hit areas in Northern Italy) where there have been enough cases for significant population immunity to develop.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    So now it's not just the MSM it's social media as well. Wouldn't he just love to be like North Korea and shut down anything that criticises him. He's too stupid to even understand the irony.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Who cares what Dominic Cumming's wife's father says / thinks? Seriously. He's a private citizen, if he's foaming-dog-fever crazy that's his right.

    Those who want to smear Cummings by association, I assume.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) can today confirm a further delay to the start of the professional domestic cricket season, with no domestic cricket to be played before 1 August.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    Wasn't that the sort of bollocks that Glen Hoddle was spouting about many moons ago along with some very strange woman associate??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    The genetic connection with a son in law would be tenuous, even in Dad's thesis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    The genetic connection with a son in law would be tenuous, even in Dad's thesis.
    Oh yes of course!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kinabalu said:

    That does look disturbing. I'm actually scared to click on it but I suppose I will.
    Wakefield is surrounded by an audience of baffled Geordie millennials.

    Who are they?


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    Why? It’s the change in rate over time that points to immunity, not the absolute level.

    The (relatively few) antibody studies do suggest that the idea that significant proportions of the population have had the virus are probably false.

    There is still however the possibility that significant parts of the population may have some natural immunity, or at least resistance, stemming either from genetics and/or from prior/recent exposure to other Coronaviruses including the common cold. That wouldn’t show up in COVID antibody research yet would explain why the infection rate plummeted so quickly after peaking at low penetration rates everywhere from China and Iran through Lombardy, London and New York.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020
    Chris said:


    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    Yep, that's been another of our major failings. China had Wuhan, Italy had Lombardy, France had Paris - nasty, but basically regional outbreaks. For us, Belgium, Brazil, it's more of a national problem (the US a mixed picture).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    Who cares what Dominic Cumming's wife's father says / thinks? Seriously. He's a private citizen, if he's foaming-dog-fever crazy that's his right.

    Those who want to smear Cummings by association, I assume.
    You might want to rephrase that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited May 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    The genetic connection with a son in law would be tenuous, even in Dad's thesis.
    Oh yes of course!
    Sippenhaft is an idea that many like the sound of. Until they google it.

    Oddly, this seems to be commonly expressed by people of the hardcore progressive stance...

    Some of the more Michael Moorish people I have met want the entire Bin Laden family prosecuted... for something. Apparently - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wafah_Dufour * - needs punishing for something.

    * Actually met her.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited May 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    Why? It’s the change in rate over time that points to immunity, not the absolute level.
    Because the similarity of the death rates between London and the UK as a whole suggests that the infection rates - and therefore the immunity rates - are also similar.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    after Mr Barnier's much appreciated contribution yesterday, Mr Cummings would like to thank President Xi for providing yet another issue around which the conservative party can unite.

    We now only need Mr Putin to step forward to get the full set.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?


    Downside: having a UK plant manufacturing cars for the UK market alone does nothing to help the UK's already terrible balance of payments.

    Of course if does. It would be import substitution, something we need a hell of a lot of.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    Why? It’s the change in rate over time that points to immunity, not the absolute level.

    The (relatively few) antibody studies do suggest that the idea that significant proportions of the population have had the virus are probably false.

    There is still however the possibility that significant parts of the population may have some natural immunity, or at least resistance, stemming either from genetics and/or from prior/recent exposure to other Coronaviruses including the common cold. That wouldn’t show up in COVID antibody research yet would explain why the infection rate plummeted so quickly after peaking at low penetration rates everywhere from China and Iran through Lombardy, London and New York.
    It doesn't make sense. The infection rates in those places were wildly different.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020...
    That's from a supposedly random, but fairly small sample, so the possibility of a non random selection is non negligible (particularly as infection patterns have varied quite considerably across the country).
    But 7% isn't really going to help massive with herd immunity.

    In other statistical news, it appears that children get infected at broadly similar rates to adults (and produce antibodies at broadly similar rates):

    https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1266004089378205698
  • Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    Wasn't that the sort of bollocks that Glen Hoddle was spouting about many moons ago along with some very strange woman associate??
    Yes, and it helped him lose his job. Sacked for his religious beliefs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Trying to think of other areas of human activity where a bloke might try something for a short time to check if he has the stamina to do it for much longer.

    Not much springs to mind. Painting a ceiling maybe?
    Anal?
    Stocky.

    Picture a "look".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    With likely deleterious effects on both US and Chinese science.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I hope we don't need a load of PPE from China in the next few weeks as I can see it mysterious getting caught up in red tape.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224

    Chris said:


    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

    Ah, right, yes I agree. There doesn't seem to be anywhere (except perhaps some of the worst-hit areas in Northern Italy) where there have been enough cases for significant population immunity to develop.
    And even there, they have found wildly different infection rates between neighbouring towns.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    One wonders if the Labour party adopts the position they had in 1995/96/97 on full UK citizenship for Hong Kong residents?

    For those who don't remember - they were extremely opposed. Wrong kind of immigrants, apparently.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited May 2020
    Nigelb said:

    With likely deleterious effects on both US and Chinese science.
    And university funding, though that's already partly priced in (at least for the UK, should it wish to emulate Mr Trump, given the CV problems already damaging recruitment/rtetention [edit]).

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    eadric said:

    Andrew said:

    eadric said:


    And now I've almost given up. Britons just won't wear them en masse, in places the number of mask wearers is going down. I'm not quite sure why.

    I saw a queue outside a shop yesterday, and all 6 were wearing masks. For a minor fraction of a second I had hope, then I got closer and saw it was a Chinese shop, as were all the customers.

    Literally nobody else I saw all day wore a mask *facedesk*
    Yes, it looks like coronavirus will finally prove all those controversial IQ/race theories are right. East Asians are about 5 IQ points smarter than westerners, on average. So the Asians wear masks and we die.

    What I didn't expect is for Britons to have the lowest mask-IQ in the world.
    It is oh so peculiar isn't it? Reports from Germany suggest widespread mask wearing.
    They are culturally very close to us.
    Other than the government telling us for 2 months that they don't work, I can't think of a decent explanation.
    But even that doesn't cover it, believe it or not. Other countries' governments did the same ridiculous about-turn on mask wearing, going from masks are bad to masks are good overnight. Canada, America, France: it happened in lots of places

    Yet those countries are now adapting to masking, and Britain, almost uniquely, is not.
    We are indeed near the bottom in terms of usage, but the Scandi countries have even less mask usage, including Norway which is fine.
    A few weeks ago, a few people in Devon took to wearing masks whilst out and about. I've seen one in the past week or more (and that was somebody driving a car - alone!)
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I hope we don't need a load of PPE from China in the next few weeks as I can see it mysterious getting caught up in red tape.

    My wife and I are trying to buy some window shutters that are not made in China.

    Its quite difficult, actually.
  • DavidL said:

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?


    Downside: having a UK plant manufacturing cars for the UK market alone does nothing to help the UK's already terrible balance of payments.

    Of course if does. It would be import substitution, something we need a hell of a lot of.

    It would be, except the UK would be losing the exports it currently makes from the Nissan plant. So it is Export substitution at the same time as import substitution: net effect: zero.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    That does look disturbing. I'm actually scared to click on it but I suppose I will.
    Wakefield is surrounded by an audience of baffled Geordie millennials.

    Who are they?
    It is an odd vignette. Something simultaneously creepy and comic about it. I kept imagining it as a sketch with the late Peter Cook for some reason.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020...
    That's from a supposedly random, but fairly small sample, so the possibility of a non random selection is non negligible (particularly as infection patterns have varied quite considerably across the country).
    But 7% isn't really going to help massive with herd immunity.
    Yes, they say they are only giving raw figures for the percentages in those tested at present:
    "To calculate the prevalence rate we would need to know the rates of false-positive and false-negative test results. Our initial analysis of modelling different false-positive and false-negative rates indicate only slight increases to uncertainty in the estimates. As we complete more sensitivity analysis, we will present these results in a future release."
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Isn't that rather the point in Dad's thesis {edit} - that the sins, or at least genes, are indeed manifest in the sprogs and sprogs' sprogs?
    Wasn't that the sort of bollocks that Glen Hoddle was spouting about many moons ago along with some very strange woman associate??
    Yes, and it helped him lose his job. Sacked for his religious beliefs.

    Its in the Bible no doubt but was then not now as I read it, and only till the third or fourth generation.

    Everyone (if you are a believer) is accountable for their own actions.

    Most Relevant Verses
    Isaiah 43:27
    Verse Concepts
    “Your first forefather sinned,
    And your spokesmen have transgressed against Me.
    Exodus 20:5
    Verse Concepts
    You shall not worship them or serve them; for I, the Lord your God, am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children, on the third and the fourth generations of those who hate Me,
    Exodus 34:7
    Verse Concepts
    who keeps lovingkindness for thousands, who forgives iniquity, transgression and sin; yet He will by no means leave the guilty unpunished, visiting the iniquity of fathers on the children and on the grandchildren to the third and fourth generations.”
    Numbers 14:18
    Verse Concepts
    ‘The Lord is slow to anger and abundant in lovingkindness, forgiving iniquity and transgression; but He will by no means clear the guilty, visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children to the third and the fourth generations.’
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mildly surprised by the Hong Kong stance. It's right, though.

    Mr. Ex_Tory, it's quite something to find a way to whinge about Nissan keeping a factory open here. My congratulations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    Up to a point.

    "Will explore options for a path to citizenship" isn't exactly an open ended offer.
    But considerably better than no response at all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Mildly surprised by the Hong Kong stance. It's right, though.

    Mr. Ex_Tory, it's quite something to find a way to whinge about Nissan keeping a factory open here. My congratulations.

    https://twitter.com/pernilleru/status/1265941594013908993

    https://twitter.com/TradeAlemaro/status/1266011404206772225
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited May 2020
    Trump election strategy taking shape -

    (i) Run as the man to bring China to its knees.

    (ii) Blame (inevitable) loss on electoral fraud. Refuse to go.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?


    Downside: having a UK plant manufacturing cars for the UK market alone does nothing to help the UK's already terrible balance of payments.

    Of course if does. It would be import substitution, something we need a hell of a lot of.

    It would be, except the UK would be losing the exports it currently makes from the Nissan plant. So it is Export substitution at the same time as import substitution: net effect: zero.
    Whether it is zero, positive or negative depends on the level of production going forward and the value of goods substituted. If we replace BMWs with home made Nissans we will be ahead.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:
    It would be one that could actually power up the UK economy enormously.

    And it will soon need it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Mildly surprised by the Hong Kong stance. It's right, though.

    Mr. Ex_Tory, it's quite something to find a way to whinge about Nissan keeping a factory open here. My congratulations.

    Indeed who has suddenly injected some lead into the government's pencil?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    And at that time you were allowed to go out for exercise even while symptomatic and self-isolating!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    eristdoof said:

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    eadric said:

    Andrew said:

    eadric said:


    And now I've almost given up. Britons just won't wear them en masse, in places the number of mask wearers is going down. I'm not quite sure why.

    I saw a queue outside a shop yesterday, and all 6 were wearing masks. For a minor fraction of a second I had hope, then I got closer and saw it was a Chinese shop, as were all the customers.

    Literally nobody else I saw all day wore a mask *facedesk*
    Yes, it looks like coronavirus will finally prove all those controversial IQ/race theories are right. East Asians are about 5 IQ points smarter than westerners, on average. So the Asians wear masks and we die.

    What I didn't expect is for Britons to have the lowest mask-IQ in the world.
    It is oh so peculiar isn't it? Reports from Germany suggest widespread mask wearing.
    They are culturally very close to us.
    Other than the government telling us for 2 months that they don't work, I can't think of a decent explanation.
    But even that doesn't cover it, believe it or not. Other countries' governments did the same ridiculous about-turn on mask wearing, going from masks are bad to masks are good overnight. Canada, America, France: it happened in lots of places

    Yet those countries are now adapting to masking, and Britain, almost uniquely, is not.
    Mask wearing in Germany is compulsory in shops (enforced) many work situations (eg waiters)(enforced by employers) and in public transport (not enforced but widely adhered to). It is also widely adopted when you are near to others.

    When outside going for a walk and you pass quickly past others with about 2 meters distance very few people wear masks, maybe 20%.

    This is at least my view from Berlin. I've not been outside the city since the beginning of February.
    In Los Angeles, it is similar, only I'd day 60-70% wear masks while outside walking the dog, etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Trying to think of other areas of human activity where a bloke might try something for a short time to check if he has the stamina to do it for much longer.

    Not much springs to mind. Painting a ceiling maybe?
    Literally anything.

    There's a reason eg if someone is returning from injury in professional football they're generally put on as a substitute first for 20 to 30 minutes before being expected to do the full 90 minutes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    kinabalu said:

    Trump election strategy taking shape -

    (i) Run as the man to bring China to its knees.

    (ii) Blame (inevitable) loss on electoral fraud. Refuse to go.
    Not sure about the inevitable loss bit there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    eristdoof said:

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    eadric said:

    Andrew said:

    eadric said:


    And now I've almost given up. Britons just won't wear them en masse, in places the number of mask wearers is going down. I'm not quite sure why.

    I saw a queue outside a shop yesterday, and all 6 were wearing masks. For a minor fraction of a second I had hope, then I got closer and saw it was a Chinese shop, as were all the customers.

    Literally nobody else I saw all day wore a mask *facedesk*
    Yes, it looks like coronavirus will finally prove all those controversial IQ/race theories are right. East Asians are about 5 IQ points smarter than westerners, on average. So the Asians wear masks and we die.

    What I didn't expect is for Britons to have the lowest mask-IQ in the world.
    It is oh so peculiar isn't it? Reports from Germany suggest widespread mask wearing.
    They are culturally very close to us.
    Other than the government telling us for 2 months that they don't work, I can't think of a decent explanation.
    But even that doesn't cover it, believe it or not. Other countries' governments did the same ridiculous about-turn on mask wearing, going from masks are bad to masks are good overnight. Canada, America, France: it happened in lots of places

    Yet those countries are now adapting to masking, and Britain, almost uniquely, is not.
    Mask wearing in Germany is compulsory in shops (enforced) many work situations (eg waiters)(enforced by employers) and in public transport (not enforced but widely adhered to). It is also widely adopted when you are near to others.

    When outside going for a walk and you pass quickly past others with about 2 meters distance very few people wear masks, maybe 20%.

    This is at least my view from Berlin. I've not been outside the city since the beginning of February.
    That tallies with reports from my Baden-Wurtemburg correspondent.
    The difference between the two countries is striking. And, as yet, lacking any convincing rational explanation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. xP, if there's no story, then that's another thing. But reacting to the apparent news of the factory remaining with a downcast view is just odd, and speaks of a conclusion reached independently of evidence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) can today confirm a further delay to the start of the professional domestic cricket season, with no domestic cricket to be played before 1 August.

    I would have thought being a spectator at a first class game was the perfect place to engage in a bit of social distancing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Does China think it'll keep HK as a financial hub?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    I would have thought that Chinese graduate students would be the people you'd want to indoctrinate, rather than expel.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Nigelb said:

    With likely deleterious effects on both US and Chinese science.
    Reading TFM this would only affect ~1% of Chinese students in the US: those deemed "connected" to the Chinese military.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. W, it probably will. Perhaps diminished.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Maybe i am really weird. I enjoying going out to eat, but feel no desparation to go to a restaurant or the pub that will sit in a giant condom to eat my meal.

    More than happy to spend the summer having drinks./ BBQ in the garden / at the beach.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    Why? It’s the change in rate over time that points to immunity, not the absolute level.

    The (relatively few) antibody studies do suggest that the idea that significant proportions of the population have had the virus are probably false.

    There is still however the possibility that significant parts of the population may have some natural immunity, or at least resistance, stemming either from genetics and/or from prior/recent exposure to other Coronaviruses including the common cold. That wouldn’t show up in COVID antibody research yet would explain why the infection rate plummeted so quickly after peaking at low penetration rates everywhere from China and Iran through Lombardy, London and New York.
    There is another explanation for why infection rates plummeted in most places: there were lockdowns.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Boris up at 5pm - how many journos will bore the nation with a Cummings question ?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    And at that time you were allowed to go out for exercise even while symptomatic and self-isolating!
    I can't help thinking some people are too clever for their own good.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    rcs1000 said:

    The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) can today confirm a further delay to the start of the professional domestic cricket season, with no domestic cricket to be played before 1 August.

    I would have thought being a spectator at a first class game was the perfect place to engage in a bit of social distancing.
    International cricket resumes on 8th July - Eng vs Windies.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Very ballsy. The govt may think they can push around the EU and perhaps EU politesse will allow them to, albeit charmingly grudgingly.

    But if they try to, as it is put, meddle in China's internal affairs, they will find a completely different response and one not likely to be tolerated as "just the UK being the UK". Or perhaps they will receive a response which treats the UK exactly like that (as 1840 says hello).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    TOPPING said:

    Very ballsy. The govt may think they can push around the EU and perhaps EU politesse will allow them to, albeit charmingly grudgingly.

    But if they try to, as it is put, meddle in China's internal affairs, they will find a completely different response and one not likely to be tolerated as "just the UK being the UK". Or perhaps they will receive a response which treats the UK exactly like that (as 1840 says hello).
    How is changing your own visa policy meddling in the internal affairs of another nation? ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
    Yes. He's taking the piss. Cos he thinks he's cleverer than us and so we deserve it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    rcs1000 said:

    I would have thought that Chinese graduate students would be the people you'd want to indoctrinate, rather than expel.
    Well other than the ones nicking the IP...but yes in general. But this is about signalling for the election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
    Unfortunately I am not a psychiatrist and I gave up wondering why the hell my clients said the absurd things that they did a long time ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Topping, playing nice and kowtowing to China has not been a great success and nor should it actions towards Hong Kong now be endorsed or ignored.

    The Government's actually getting something right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Trying to think of other areas of human activity where a bloke might try something for a short time to check if he has the stamina to do it for much longer.

    Not much springs to mind. Painting a ceiling maybe?
    Literally anything.

    There's a reason eg if someone is returning from injury in professional football they're generally put on as a substitute first for 20 to 30 minutes before being expected to do the full 90 minutes.
    Bit different, that. The footballing example would be more a fitness test. You take a fitness test and if you pass you get picked for the upcoming match. So, was Cummings' drive to BC and back a sort of "fitness test" which he passed and thus earned his place in the team for the "match", being the big drive to London?

    Yes, I think that works. It's bollox, of course, but it might have worked in court with a good barrister.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    rcs1000 said:

    I would have thought that Chinese graduate students would be the people you'd want to indoctrinate, rather than expel.
    Some Vice Chancellors here might have got their first good news for quite a while.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    rcs1000 said:

    The sins of the father(-in-law) are not vested upon the son(-in-law).

    However disturbing it might be (and I've not watched it), it can have no bearing on Dominic Cummings.
    Agreed but it's the sort of thing the Tory press has done to "monster" Labour, Lib Dem and SNP politicians for years. They can't really clutch their pearls when their opponents stoop to the same level.

    One thing is for sure though Cummings is going to find it very hard indeed to indulge in the types of attacks on the "elite" that he has in the past.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Wonder how long Alex Massie will keep his Spectator column? He must cause huge discomfort at the top, and among the readership.
    It was good of them not to put it behind the paywall. I wonder ...
    Hmmm... it is possible.

    Losing the Mail might be careless, but losing the Spectator would look like he’s holed below the waterline. The frothers are his core vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,224
    edited May 2020

    Nissan's UK factory in Sunderland will stay open as the Japanese carmaker carries out a global restructuring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    It will close its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs after the firm plunged to a $6.2bn (£5bn) net loss in the last financial year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348

    Is this a despite Brexit? or because of it?

    Despite.

    Though I think the Sunderland plant is so much more efficient, and the cost of replacing it elsewhere so great compared to the available resources, that the effects of Brexit probably don't massively figure in the decision.
    They might determine whether Renault builds cars there, though.

    Of more concern to me in the next few years is that lack of solid plans for large battery plants. While these are being constructed already in Europe, from what I can see, here they are either pretty small, or aspirations rather than funded projects.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    If you are going to find a friendly lawyer to back up your case against Dominic Cummngs, then a former Labour PPC in High Holborn and St Pancras might not always be the best candidate for a comment.

    https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/politics/hiv-doctor-and-former-council-leader-enter-labour-race-to-replace-frank-dobson-1-3713719

    I suppose other criminal lawyers who are criminal barristers weren't available to help The Daily Mirror.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Mr. Topping, playing nice and kowtowing to China has not been a great success and nor should it actions towards Hong Kong now be endorsed or ignored.

    The Government's actually getting something right.

    Misunderstanding how China views those territories it owns or thinks it owns
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited May 2020

    kinabalu said:

    Trump election strategy taking shape -

    (i) Run as the man to bring China to its knees.

    (ii) Blame (inevitable) loss on electoral fraud. Refuse to go.
    Not sure about the inevitable loss bit there.
    Well you know my view on this. I formed it months ago and I'm only growing in conviction about it. Trump will not reach 200 in the Electoral College.

    When it duly happens - Trump Toast - I expect to earn full Guru status on here. :smile:
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The friendly Labour Criminal Lawyer who wanted to be MP for High Holborn and St Pancras, cited by Pippa Crearer.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1266021068977901570
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    ....
    I thought one of the most interesting bits of information was that excess deaths in London, as a percentage of the population, were not very much larger than for the UK as a whole, namely, about 0.11% compared with about 0.09%.

    London is shown as having 130% more deaths than normal in the period, though, compared with 65% more for the UK as a whole, so on that measure it has been disproportionately badly hit. I think the figures you quote might be distorted by the different age distributions in each region (i.e. London has a younger population, so starts from a lower base in deaths per 1000).
    Presumably. But I was thinking of the relevance of those figures to the idea that the decline in London is the result of a significant percentage of acquired immunity. It's very difficult to believe on those figures.

    And it seems the first antibody test results from the ONS survey have just been released - "Of those individuals providing blood samples, 6.78% (unweighted) tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%); this equates to around 1 in 15 people."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020
    Why? It’s the change in rate over time that points to immunity, not the absolute level.

    The (relatively few) antibody studies do suggest that the idea that significant proportions of the population have had the virus are probably false.

    There is still however the possibility that significant parts of the population may have some natural immunity, or at least resistance, stemming either from genetics and/or from prior/recent exposure to other Coronaviruses including the common cold. That wouldn’t show up in COVID antibody research yet would explain why the infection rate plummeted so quickly after peaking at low penetration rates everywhere from China and Iran through Lombardy, London and New York.
    There is another explanation for why infection rates plummeted in most places: there were lockdowns.
    Sweden though, Sweden.

    The Swedes went for herd immunity and failed. Stockholm's antibody show is lower than London, and yet deaths per million are around the same.

    There's only really one answer to this conundrum. For a lot of people, the virus just ain't a thing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Nigelb said:

    Despite.

    Though I think the Sunderland plant is so much more efficient, and the cost of replacing it elsewhere so great compared to the available resources, that the effects of Brexit probably don't massively figure in the decision.
    They might determine whether Renault builds cars there, though.

    See comment upthread

    I saw elsewhere decision is dependent on zero tariffs, which of course we don't get with no deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nothing new under the sun. It takes me back to the Cone of Scilence in Get Smart:


    https://youtu.be/uqcSWI6Ppks
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Maybe i am really weird. I enjoying going out to eat, but feel no desparation to go to a restaurant or the pub that will sit in a giant condom to eat my meal.

    More than happy to spend the summer having drinks./ BBQ in the garden / at the beach.
    It certainly looks a bit odd, to be sure, especially since what's the point of a cosy tête-à-tête with an attractive woman in separate perspex bubbles? They should at least offer two-seaters!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Topping, it also thinks it owns Taiwan. And islands disputed with Japan. And a slice of the South China Sea which belongs to half a dozen other nations. At what point does the world stop rolling over?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    TGOHF666 said:

    Boris up at 5pm - how many journos will bore the nation with a Cummings question ?

    What colour will today's dead cat be?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Boris up at 5pm - how many journos will bore the nation with a Cummings question ?

    What colour will today's dead cat be?
    I think Boris will talk about the global pandemic in a shallow attempt to distract us from talking about Dom.

    What a cad.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
    Unfortunately I am not a psychiatrist and I gave up wondering why the hell my clients said the absurd things that they did a long time ago.
    Oh yes, of course, you are an actual Advocate. Must have heard the lot. :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Good news on the # of positive tests...

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1266030219993010180?s=19
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    What colour will today's dead cat be?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1266034776152080389
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
    If you were making something up, there would be a hundred better excuses.

    So, logically, the only conclusion must be that it was true. Otherwise why say it?

    :smile:

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    At the start of lockdown Sturgeon’s SNP had poll leads of up to 14% – now the latest two surveys have that up at 25%.

    At this rate independence might happen quite soon.

    On the face of it the polling trends look worrying for the Conservatives and good for the SNP which is seeing a lot of progress in getting the gap larger.

    For the SNP the really positive thing has been the improvement in the leader ratings.

    The big question is how will this now go? Can BoJo/Dom stop any further erosion or is Sturgeon’s big ratings progress going to be translated into even better voting intention numbers? We don’t know, which is why the Unionist media commission so few Scottish polls.

    Yep, some Scottish Tories get it (though it could be said the ones visibly crapping themselves and spouting ever more virulent guff also get it).

    https://twitter.com/akmaciver/status/1265980675007680512?s=20
    I think you're assuming that the wickedness of England becoming personified in Boris and Cummings and the wonderfulness of Scotland becoming personified in Nicola Sturgeon are a good thing for the course of Scottish nationalism. Neither is necessarily true.
    All this stereotyping really does Unionism more harm than good. You just love attacking straw men. It’ll end in tears.
    You can put it any way that you wish. Sturgeon (as I have said) is a talented politician and has had a good coronavirus - deservedly so. However, she is quite clearly in the Autumn of her political years and there's no successor in sight that is not deeply unpalatable by comparison.

    By contrast, Boris and Cummings seem to me to be becoming the 'bad bank' for everyone's Brexit, Tory, England, frustrations. If and when they depart the scene, it is likely to be a catharsis.
    Kate Forbes is “deeply unpalatable” is she? And the lovely Angus Robertson and John Swinney? I think not. Those are the top three bookies’ favourites for the job, at considerably shorter odds than your chaps Richard Leonard (20/1), Jackson Carlaw (25/1) and Wullie Rennie (125/1).

    And autumn of her years?? She’s six years younger than Johnson and eight years younger than Starmer.

    As for the “England frustrations”, keep taking the tablets. The delusions will subside.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited May 2020
    Yes, 1,887 positive from 120,000 tests is very good news.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    Hi Philip

    Do you believe Cummings story about the Castle expedition? I mean do you, personally, actually believe he was telling the truth?

    Sort of.

    In the full context of he felt like it was a good idea to drive to see if he was up to the pressures of driving then yes I do. I've done similar before. I think a half hour trip is a great idea before a cross country drive if you have any concerns and I've done that before.

    On the out of context word of "eyesight" and an eyesight discussion alone? No.

    Does that make sense?
    Pure comedy gold. Again.

    You, mr will no one think of the children, have in the past worried that your eyesight is not up to driving so you have shouted over to Mrs T: come on luv grab the kids we're going for a drive.

    You've done that.
    No, read again, not eyesight. I said not eyesight!

    My specific word when I said about "eyesight" was "No."

    Doing a half hour drive when I'm concerned about my stamina etc to do a five hour drive, yes I have done that.
    Ah. Ok. How would you know from a half hour drive whether you had the stamina for a five hour drive?
    You just know. Trust your instincts. EG do you feel up to continue driving or do you feel exhausted?

    As I said when we first discussed this, it was a tip I got from an RAC guy when I was 18, inexperienced and at university and I've followed it since - if you're feeling a bit rusty then a half hour drive is good exercise for both you and your car.
    Ummm... But wouldn't you want the half hour drive to end back at your own place? Otherwise you find yourself marooned half an hour (at least) from home and unfit to drive.

    More seriously, even if this was a perfectly understandable...

    ...Given it was combined with a bit of a walk around Barnard Castle at the other end, then it certainly wasn't in line with the rules.

    The weird thing is that you were allowed to travel for the purposes of your daily exercise provided the travel was proportionate which most forces interpreted as being no longer than you spent walking. If he had simply said that on his wife's birthday they decided to go for a nice socially distanced walk around the castle I don't think there would have been anything wrong with that. It was this ridiculous testing my eyesight story that has pissed people off because it was so obviously false.
    It is hard to credit. Do you have any theory at all as to why he came out with that?
    If you were making something up, there would be a hundred better excuses.

    So, logically, the only conclusion must be that it was true. Otherwise why say it?

    :smile:

    To show you really can do what you want without consequence? And test how blindly the sheep will follow?
This discussion has been closed.