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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting moves even more to Cummings still being in his job

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  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314

    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.

    Can't we have an English word - One is French and the other probably American ! Maybe a suggestion would be a Refrain!
    I heard 'confinement' today. Quite nice, only it makes us all seem like we're pregnant with the illegimate offspring of the local squire.
    Or PM.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,600
    Sandpit said:

    I see Labour on manoeuvres in this cross party 'Get Boris' powow. Sadly I am not tactically minded enough to guess what they're up to, but it feels like that clever Mr. Starmer is up to something, and the nationalists should be wary - they aren't dealing with Corbyn anymore.

    The sensible thing for them to do is something Parliamentary at the first Opposition Day debate - make the Tory MPs walk through the lobbies to oppose a motion censuring the PM for the conduct of his advisor. To be immediately followed by a letter-writing campaign to all the Tory MPs from "their constituents" about how upset/annoyed/furious they are that their MP doesn't hate Cummings as much as they do.

    I imagine that getting everyone active for an opposition party in a Tory seat to write an individual letter, with their own sad story, at the same time, might have something of an affect on the MP's mailbox.

    I don't know why I'm giving them advice though.
    I think it's also got to do with Labour lovebombing the SNP. Remember their route to power is through Scotland.
  • Options

    We. Need. Polling.

    What for? Is there a General Election soon?
    I have to find something to entertain me, not like I'm getting laid at the moment
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.

    Can't we have an English word - One is French and the other probably American ! Maybe a suggestion would be a Refrain!
    Quarantine is derived Venetian, not French. It refers to the 40 days crew had to wait on ships before they could disembark when they arrived in Venice.

    At Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik), not Venice, I believe.
  • Options
    Iraq, if only it hadn't been for Iraq, PB would be worshipping me to this day. Bloody Sadam
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,627
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's one massive Tory-reading paper they've got back onside, as least on the front page.
    For all the damage that the Cummings episode has done to the government, there's a silver lining for them. The less sympathetic media took their eye off the ball. Over the weekend the UK drew ahead of Italy in per capita deaths on the official daily stats, and no-one noticed.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    I see Labour on manoeuvres in this cross party 'Get Boris' powow. Sadly I am not tactically minded enough to guess what they're up to, but it feels like that clever Mr. Starmer is up to something, and the nationalists should be wary - they aren't dealing with Corbyn anymore.

    The sensible thing for them to do is something Parliamentary at the first Opposition Day debate - make the Tory MPs walk through the lobbies to oppose a motion censuring the PM for the conduct of his advisor. To be immediately followed by a letter-writing campaign to all the Tory MPs from "their constituents" about how upset/annoyed/furious they are that their MP doesn't hate Cummings as much as they do.

    I imagine that getting everyone active for an opposition party in a Tory seat to write an individual letter, with their own sad story, at the same time, might have something of an affect on the MP's mailbox.

    I don't know why I'm giving them advice though.
    I think it's also got to do with Labour lovebombing the SNP. Remember their route to power is through Scotland.
    Wow, a first. We agree.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Iraq, if only it hadn't been for Iraq, PB would be worshipping me to this day. Bloody Sadam

    Can you tell Bad Al to switch his phone off? His Twitter ramblings about hating the evil Cummings are not working in the way he intended
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    If we didn't learn from the prorogation, can we try to learn from this?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's one massive Tory-reading paper they've got back onside, as least on the front page.
    For all the damage that the Cummings episode has done to the government, there's a silver lining for them. The less sympathetic media took their eye off the ball. Over the weekend the UK drew ahead of Italy in per capita deaths on the official daily stats, and no-one noticed.
    There's plenty that's been missed, but the Lobby mob had waited two months for an old-fashioned political lynching and couldn't help themselves - even if they didn't get the witch this time around.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    edited May 2020
    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,867

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's one massive Tory-reading paper they've got back onside, as least on the front page.
    For all the damage that the Cummings episode has done to the government, there's a silver lining for them. The less sympathetic media took their eye off the ball. Over the weekend the UK drew ahead of Italy in per capita deaths on the official daily stats, and no-one noticed.
    If only we'd had a couple of extra weeks over Italy to prepare, eh?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.

    Can't we have an English word - One is French and the other probably American ! Maybe a suggestion would be a Refrain!
    Quarantine is derived Venetian, not French. It refers to the 40 days crew had to wait on ships before they could disembark when they arrived in Venice.

    At Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik), not Venice, I believe.
    You encouraged me to look it up.
    Apparently Ragusa first imposed the Trentino (30 days) followed by the 40 days of the Venetian Republic. Venice strikes me as a bit of a one up (or ten up) sort of a place.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.

    Can't we have an English word - One is French and the other probably American ! Maybe a suggestion would be a Refrain!
    Quarantine is derived Venetian, not French. It refers to the 40 days crew had to wait on ships before they could disembark when they arrived in Venice.

    At Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik), not Venice, I believe.
    Part of the Venetian Empire back then ;-)

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over
    If you say so.
    People have longer memories than other people think.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.

    Can't we have an English word - One is French and the other probably American ! Maybe a suggestion would be a Refrain!
    Quarantine is derived Venetian, not French. It refers to the 40 days crew had to wait on ships before they could disembark when they arrived in Venice.

    At Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik), not Venice, I believe.
    Part of the Venetian Empire back then ;-)

    Yes, I know that. You did say in venice, though.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    Because people talking face to face is far more likely to spread the virus than people shopping on their own.

    I mean, honestly, do you really think that we can just go back to normal in every aspect of our daily life, and that the virus magically won't spread this time, the way it did in March?

    Think about it - this huge wave of disease that has engulfed the world and killed a third of a million people developed, within just a month or two, from at most a few hundred infections from China.

    In the UK, according to the ONS survey, we currently still have well over 100,000 people who are infected.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over
    If you say so.
    People have longer memories than other people think.
    Indeed. People who already hated Cummings due to Brexit etc will add this to their grievance list to bring up time and again in the future.

    Rest of the country will move on.

    Like last election when one side of the debate were dredging up quotes from Johnson articles decades old to rant about how evil Johnson is. Worked out well didn't it?
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,600
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    I see Labour on manoeuvres in this cross party 'Get Boris' powow. Sadly I am not tactically minded enough to guess what they're up to, but it feels like that clever Mr. Starmer is up to something, and the nationalists should be wary - they aren't dealing with Corbyn anymore.

    The sensible thing for them to do is something Parliamentary at the first Opposition Day debate - make the Tory MPs walk through the lobbies to oppose a motion censuring the PM for the conduct of his advisor. To be immediately followed by a letter-writing campaign to all the Tory MPs from "their constituents" about how upset/annoyed/furious they are that their MP doesn't hate Cummings as much as they do.

    I imagine that getting everyone active for an opposition party in a Tory seat to write an individual letter, with their own sad story, at the same time, might have something of an affect on the MP's mailbox.

    I don't know why I'm giving them advice though.
    I think it's also got to do with Labour lovebombing the SNP. Remember their route to power is through Scotland.
    That's mad. The SNP is Labour's sworn and mortal enemy. They might both be social democratic parties but as long as the SNP thrives in Scotland, a path to a GE victory is very very hard for Labour. And the SNP will not compromise on indy to help a Labour government, it goes against their DNA.

    Moreover, the biggest threat to the SNP is a Labour revival in Scotland. Unlikely, but not impossible. Scottish politics has surprised us before.

    A Labour-SNP alliance is rather like the Hitler-Stalin pact in 1940
    Yes, I agree, but Starmer isn't stupid, and he's not going to get anywhere by berating the SNP, at least initially.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753
    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anywhere indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    We all know the sort of venue you frequented that results in panting...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    Unlikely, but not impossible. Scottish politics has surprised us before.

    On its mcprediction record Scotland must have kept PB in a constant state of astonishment.
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over
    If you say so.
    People have longer memories than other people think.
    Indeed. People who already hated Cummings due to Brexit etc will add this to their grievance list to bring up time and again in the future.

    Rest of the country will move on.

    Like last election when one side of the debate were dredging up quotes from Johnson articles decades old to rant about how evil Johnson is. Worked out well didn't it?
    This is it. No-one reads papers, and when people read them online they don't read the full piece. Meanwhile, the Guardian ran for days and days on Cummings saying he wanted the virus to just run through the population - the SAGE minutes will be released eventually and we'll see if that was true or not, but it sounds like bullshit.

    Plus you know someone's a moron if they take a story to the Guardian. An intelligent person would have got a photo of Cummings, out at Barnard Castle, and sold it to the Sun for £1000.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    The Guardian has had a go as well. To be honest, I prefer this to the Times’s version even if it has a few basic errors...

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/25/richard-hoare-obituary

    That's a lovely piece.
    Thank you... I doubt any of my employees will write about me like that!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.

    Hate to break it to you but that’s the first story on the Mail Online.
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    alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anywhere indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    We all know the sort of venue you frequented that results in panting...
    You sound like you speak from experience 😉
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    Monkeys said:

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over
    If you say so.
    People have longer memories than other people think.
    Indeed. People who already hated Cummings due to Brexit etc will add this to their grievance list to bring up time and again in the future.

    Rest of the country will move on.

    Like last election when one side of the debate were dredging up quotes from Johnson articles decades old to rant about how evil Johnson is. Worked out well didn't it?
    This is it. No-one reads papers, and when people read them online they don't read the full piece. Meanwhile, the Guardian ran for days and days on Cummings saying he wanted the virus to just run through the population - the SAGE minutes will be released eventually and we'll see if that was true or not, but it sounds like bullshit.

    Plus you know someone's a moron if they take a story to the Guardian. An intelligent person would have got a photo of Cummings, out at Barnard Castle, and sold it to the Sun for £1000.
    People still take a view on the story, regardless of whether they read newspapers and which newspapers they read.

    They take a view on how important it is, and which way they feel about it.

    I have a clear view on which way this will go... and it hasn't run its course yet.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Telegraph:

    "Boris Johnson the 'people’s politician' risks squandering his common touch in standing by Dominic Cummings"
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,914


    I have to find something to entertain me, not like I'm getting laid at the moment


    I am not pretending, I really am Keir Starmer.

    I don't believe both of these statements are true!
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.

    Because that’s not news which is relevant to their readers?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eadric said:

    The Guardian has form in this department. When they get a scoop they like to juice it up, at the start, with a massive lie that gets the ball rolling; by the time everyone realises they lied, then it is too late, the scoop is a thing

    Remember this notorious Guardian apology

    "On 13 December the following clarification was published: "An article about the investigation into the abduction and death of Milly Dowler (News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone during police hunt, 5 July, page 1) stated that voicemail 'messages were deleted by [News of the World] journalists in the first few days after Milly's disappearance in order to free up space for more messages. As a result friends and relatives of Milly concluded wrongly that she might still be alive"

    "Since this story was published new evidence – as reported in the Guardian of 10 December – has led the Metropolitan police to believe that this was unlikely to have been correct and that while the News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone the newspaper is unlikely to have been responsible for the deletion of a set of voicemails from the phone that caused her parents to have false hopes that she was alive"


    They repeated the lie in THIRTY SEVEN articles until they finally retracted

    It is quite a brutal and ruthless paper, as bad as the Mail, its eerie twin sister

    https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2011/dec/20/corrections-and-clarifications

    The British public obviously deeply caring about what exactly the news of the world did after hacking into a dead girls phone.
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    edited May 2020
    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Very well written.

    Point 5 especially goes against the stereotype that constantly gets trotted out.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Charles said:

    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.

    Because that’s not news which is relevant to their readers?
    There's a difference between news and a move in game theory to distract us.
  • Options
    TGOHF666 said:
    Tory MPs are doing exactly the same thing...
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    edited May 2020
    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:
    You reckon?

    You think the burning anger of Middle England is going to disappear in a puff of smoke because Cummings weaves his hands in and out of each other and mutters some words of incantation?

    Real people have missed holding the hands of dying wives and close family funerals whilst this clown has been burning up and down the by ways of the North East checking his eyes work.

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,627
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's one massive Tory-reading paper they've got back onside, as least on the front page.
    For all the damage that the Cummings episode has done to the government, there's a silver lining for them. The less sympathetic media took their eye off the ball. Over the weekend the UK drew ahead of Italy in per capita deaths on the official daily stats, and no-one noticed.
    The UK is fifth highest in daily deaths today, and may fall lower as the New World reports. That's the "best" score for weeks. We have been first or usually second for yonks
    The point is that the overally cumulative stats now show definitively that the UK been harder hit than ever other European country*, even though we had every reason to expect that we should have got off more lightly given the precious couple of extra weeks grace we were given. Yet rather than refocus on this record of ineptitude, everyone is banging on about Cummings.

    By contrast, daily stats in isolation don't tell you very much at all. If I though they did I'd have been banging on here about those quite frequent days recently where the UK's daily toll exceeded the combined toll of Italy, Spain and France, countries in the more advanced stage of recovery. And yes as we recover there are countries such as Brazil which were late to the party and are now coming up on the rails by virtue of having buried their heads in the sand.

    [*That's using excess deaths or, where for countries such as Italy for whom up to date comparisons are not unavailable, the per capita daily counts.]
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    Longer interactions, I imagine.

    Edit: Apologies, I see this has already been pointed out.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    EPG said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    The Guardian has form in this department. When they get a scoop they like to juice it up, at the start, with a massive lie that gets the ball rolling; by the time everyone realises they lied, then it is too late, the scoop is a thing

    Remember this notorious Guardian apology

    "On 13 December the following clarification was published: "An article about the investigation into the abduction and death of Milly Dowler (News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone during police hunt, 5 July, page 1) stated that voicemail 'messages were deleted by [News of the World] journalists in the first few days after Milly's disappearance in order to free up space for more messages. As a result friends and relatives of Milly concluded wrongly that she might still be alive"

    "Since this story was published new evidence – as reported in the Guardian of 10 December – has led the Metropolitan police to believe that this was unlikely to have been correct and that while the News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone the newspaper is unlikely to have been responsible for the deletion of a set of voicemails from the phone that caused her parents to have false hopes that she was alive"


    They repeated the lie in THIRTY SEVEN articles until they finally retracted

    It is quite a brutal and ruthless paper, as bad as the Mail, its eerie twin sister

    https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2011/dec/20/corrections-and-clarifications

    Don't forget (Dominic Cummings won't have done) about Cadwalladr's five consecutive Observer front pages regarding the referendum leave campaigns, data and funding - each one followed by a page 50 correction of material facts regarding the previous week's article.
    If the Guardian valued their expert virtuous journalist so high, I have no idea how Carole Conspiracy is still employed by them. Her twitter rants are totally deranged, its left wing version of Alex Jones.
    At least she's not a lying felon like Guido.
    Exactly, people moan about the Guardian and then quote from Guido without batting an eyelid.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:
    You reckon?

    You think the burning anger of Middle England is going to disappear in a puff of smoke because Cummings weaves his hands in and out of each other and mutters some words of incantation?

    Real people have missed holding the hands of dying wives and close family funerals whilst this clown has been burning up and down the by ways of the North East checking his eyes work.

    Yes. The two minutes hate will move on to something else.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    FF43 said:

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
    If Gupta of Oxford is right then Johnson gets away with all this.

    If she and her team are wrong then the 2nd wave will sweep Johnson into a world of shit he is not prepared for.
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
    You might have failed a voight-kampff test there.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    @Foxy Did you note the lack of distinction between quarantine and lockdown today too ?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,867
    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
    Worse than making no sense, it's bordering on criminal irresponsibility.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    EPG said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    The Guardian has form in this department. When they get a scoop they like to juice it up, at the start, with a massive lie that gets the ball rolling; by the time everyone realises they lied, then it is too late, the scoop is a thing

    Remember this notorious Guardian apology

    "On 13 December the following clarification was published: "An article about the investigation into the abduction and death of Milly Dowler (News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone during police hunt, 5 July, page 1) stated that voicemail 'messages were deleted by [News of the World] journalists in the first few days after Milly's disappearance in order to free up space for more messages. As a result friends and relatives of Milly concluded wrongly that she might still be alive"

    "Since this story was published new evidence – as reported in the Guardian of 10 December – has led the Metropolitan police to believe that this was unlikely to have been correct and that while the News of the World hacked Milly Dowler's phone the newspaper is unlikely to have been responsible for the deletion of a set of voicemails from the phone that caused her parents to have false hopes that she was alive"


    They repeated the lie in THIRTY SEVEN articles until they finally retracted

    It is quite a brutal and ruthless paper, as bad as the Mail, its eerie twin sister

    https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2011/dec/20/corrections-and-clarifications

    Don't forget (Dominic Cummings won't have done) about Cadwalladr's five consecutive Observer front pages regarding the referendum leave campaigns, data and funding - each one followed by a page 50 correction of material facts regarding the previous week's article.
    If the Guardian valued their expert virtuous journalist so high, I have no idea how Carole Conspiracy is still employed by them. Her twitter rants are totally deranged, its left wing version of Alex Jones.
    At least she's not a lying felon like Guido.
    Exactly, people moan about the Guardian and then quote from Guido without batting an eyelid.
    At least Guido doesn't claim to be whiter than white, while ranting that whiter than white is a racist phrase.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806

    FF43 said:

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
    If Gupta of Oxford is right then Johnson gets away with all this.

    If she and her team are wrong then the 2nd wave will sweep Johnson into a world of shit he is not prepared for.
    Unfortunately, I don't see any reason to believe Professor Gupta's models from what I understand of them.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Anecdata


    Caught up with nursing friend over Skype. The wards are getting busier again. 😬
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    How was Spain able to reduce its death toll by 2,000?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Andy_JS said:

    How was Spain able to reduce its death toll by 2,000?

    Cummings read the numbers out without his glasses?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    eadric said:

    Eeesh. This is not good.

    The buggy, erroneous but useful University of Washington covid-19 model - is now whispering about significant second waves, for example, see here in Italy

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

    There's a massive uncertainty curve there, but the Central scenario doesn't look so bad, peaking at one seventh the previous peak.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,602
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    All good points, but I think they are lost in the blizzard of chaff now. So much differing info is bewildering, and boring, people will tune out and say it's Just Politics

    The damage has been done to the Tories, Big Bad Dom seems to have survived.
    And in the excitement of the last year or so, perhaps we all forgot that most of politics is about changes on the geological timescale, rather than the action movie timescale.

    A wise government would have parked Dom somewhere else for a year, but we don't have one of those, because neither Boris or Dom can admit error or do without the other. So he stays. The fact that nobody walked the plank after that Supreme Court ruling should have been a giveaway.

    But damage has been done. Some voters who moved across to Boris in 2019 will have shifted back because of this. The most interesting headline tomorrow is the one in Metro; "Stay Elite". That could hurt, especially in a paper that isn't very ideological. It might not be many, but a bit of magic has gone.

    More importantly, Dom is Diminished. Can he ever again march a Spad out of Downing Street? He didn't eat much humble pie, but it was on the table. Even the fact he was wearing a proper shirt... he's not quite the same monster as before, and part of his act has been lost.

    But tomorrow is another day.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,037

    FF43 said:

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
    If Gupta of Oxford is right then Johnson gets away with all this.

    If she and her team are wrong then the 2nd wave will sweep Johnson into a world of shit he is not prepared for.
    There will be a second wave, the only question is when?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456

    eadric said:
    You reckon?

    You think the burning anger of Middle England is going to disappear in a puff of smoke because Cummings weaves his hands in and out of each other and mutters some words of incantation?

    Real people have missed holding the hands of dying wives and close family funerals whilst this clown has been burning up and down the by ways of the North East checking his eyes work.

    Yes. The two minutes hate will move on to something else.
    We will have to respectfully disagree. Time as ever will decide.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    eadric said:

    Eeesh. This is not good.

    The buggy, erroneous but useful University of Washington covid-19 model - is now whispering about significant second waves, for example, see here in Italy

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

    They probably don't have a clue whether there's going to be another wave or not.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    I think Boris has been dealt a mortal blow. The assertion 'everyone will have forgotten about this by the next general election' is so much guff - Black Wednesday happened at a comparable time into JM's regime. Every political setback that followed was simply magnified by that initial fiasco - JM could never shake it off. We've got the fallout from the virus and, probably, a sub-optimal Brexit still to come. Never mind all the other horrors as yet unseen. I can't see how Boris will ever have the space to recover from this.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.

    Hate to break it to you but that’s the first story on the Mail Online.
    I think that’s a separate operation though
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over

    The damage to Boris won't be over, his ratings were already on the slide and this certainly isn't going to help. His Press Conferences are dreadful, Starmer bests him at every PMQ and I doubt any of that is going to substantially change.

    In their rush towards Brexit the Tories have chosen a leader that's not up to the job. He's soon going to have to be explaining why his government has produced the worst pandemic outcome in Europe. He'll be having to explain why we are the last European country out of lockdown.

    When that is beginning to calm down he'll be trying to deal with the consequences of reverting to WTO trading terms at the end of the year.

    Anyone who thinks things have gone well for Boris since he won the GE really haven't been paying attention.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Anecdata


    Caught up with nursing friend over Skype. The wards are getting busier again. 😬

    Which area of the country?
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755

    I think Boris has been dealt a mortal blow. The assertion 'everyone will have forgotten about this by the next general election' is so much guff - Black Wednesday happened at a comparable time into JM's regime. Every political setback that followed was simply magnified by that initial fiasco - JM could never shake it off. We've got the fallout from the virus and, probably, a sub-optimal Brexit still to come. Never mind all the other horrors as yet unseen. I can't see how Boris will ever have the space to recover from this.

    It's true - during Dom's statement today interest rates shot up to 15% and now they're at 17%, this won't be forgotten.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    OllyT said:

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Milder than yesterday. They won't be panicking. By Wednesday this will likely be over

    The damage to Boris won't be over, his ratings were already on the slide and this certainly isn't going to help. His Press Conferences are dreadful, Starmer bests him at every PMQ and I doubt any of that is going to substantially change.

    In their rush towards Brexit the Tories have chosen a leader that's not up to the job. He's soon going to have to be explaining why his government has produced the worst pandemic outcome in Europe. He'll be having to explain why we are the last European country out of lockdown.

    When that is beginning to calm down he'll be trying to deal with the consequences of reverting to WTO trading terms at the end of the year.

    Anyone who thinks things have gone well for Boris since he won the GE really haven't been paying attention.

    He also looks and sounds like shit.

    Not up to it any more will be the next stage.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Not sure I ever thought I would say this. But thank God for the Daily Mail tonight.

    Refusing to grab the dead cat of shops being opened in two weeks.

    Top journalism.

    Because that’s not news which is relevant to their readers?
    There's a difference between news and a move in game theory to distract us.
    It’s news regardless of the motivation for making the statement here and now
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    Pulpstar said:

    The most worrying point about this saga is the fact that almost noone seems to understand the difference between quarantine and lockdown.


    It's a deliberate tactic for the fanboys. They are deliberately trying to play down Cumming's misdemeanors by hoping the average punter is too thick to understand the difference.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    End of the week? That would mean it had run for 7 straight days.

    https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1264970878766460928
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
    Because (a) that would be mixing households and (b) they wouldn’t have what I assume is a complex medical history if required by doctors
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    Pulpstar said:

    @Foxy Did you note the lack of distinction between quarantine and lockdown today too ?

    Yes.

    My MP ignored it when I questioned it. I just got 2 pages of form letter bullshit that didn't answer my questions.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    edited May 2020
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Have you and @Richard_Nabavi ever gone shopping with a woman or been somewhere like Westfield or Trafford Shopping Centres. People spend hours in them.
    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anywhere indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    All you describe applies to quite a lot of shops too, shopping centres especially.

    And in response to @Chris: I don’t expect instant normality but I’d like to understand what the scientific basis is for allowing some indoor places to reopen and not others. And whether that really is the basis for this decision and whether it has been weighed against the costs.
  • Options
    If we end up clearly as the worst hit country in the EU, this incident will surely play into the incompetence that has caused it
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
    If Gupta of Oxford is right then Johnson gets away with all this.

    If she and her team are wrong then the 2nd wave will sweep Johnson into a world of shit he is not prepared for.
    There will be a second wave, the only question is when?
    The really big question is how many people will be prepared to put up with a second lockdown.

    Arguments will be as follows:
    - First one didn't work
    - Can't afford it. My best mate [insert name here] already got made redundant
    - I'm under 45, I've got a higher chance of being run over by a bus
    - Remember that Dominic Cummings... oh, and the other one, the scientist who got caught with his pants down.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:
    You reckon?

    You think the burning anger of Middle England is going to disappear in a puff of smoke because Cummings weaves his hands in and out of each other and mutters some words of incantation?

    Real people have missed holding the hands of dying wives and close family funerals whilst this clown has been burning up and down the by ways of the North East checking his eyes work.

    Yes. The two minutes hate will move on to something else.
    We will have to respectfully disagree. Time as ever will decide.
    For Grauniad readers Cummings will remain the hate object he already was.

    For the Daily Mail they will find a new hate object before long.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    Monkeys said:

    I think Boris has been dealt a mortal blow. The assertion 'everyone will have forgotten about this by the next general election' is so much guff - Black Wednesday happened at a comparable time into JM's regime. Every political setback that followed was simply magnified by that initial fiasco - JM could never shake it off. We've got the fallout from the virus and, probably, a sub-optimal Brexit still to come. Never mind all the other horrors as yet unseen. I can't see how Boris will ever have the space to recover from this.

    It's true - during Dom's statement today interest rates shot up to 15% and now they're at 17%, this won't be forgotten.
    It's arguably worse than that. Not everyone had a mortgage on Black Wednesday. Literally everyone in the country has been adversely affected by the virus. If only a chunky minority of those voters are suitably miffed that is politically huge.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdata


    Caught up with nursing friend over Skype. The wards are getting busier again. 😬

    Which area of the country?
    inpatient numbers were up in Leicestershire this week, at least on Friday they were.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314

    eadric said:
    You reckon?

    You think the burning anger of Middle England is going to disappear in a puff of smoke because Cummings weaves his hands in and out of each other and mutters some words of incantation?

    Real people have missed holding the hands of dying wives and close family funerals whilst this clown has been burning up and down the by ways of the North East checking his eyes work.

    Yes. The two minutes hate will move on to something else.
    We will have to respectfully disagree. Time as ever will decide.
    For Grauniad readers Cummings will remain the hate object he already was.

    For the Daily Mail they will find a new hate object before long.
    Boris?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:



    Have you and @Richard_Nabavi ever gone shopping with a woman or been somewhere like Westfield or Trafford Shopping Centres. People spend hours in them.

    Speaking for myself, yes, I have occasionally been dragged around shops by a woman but it's something I have now learnt to avoid like the plague. My personal expertise in avoiding shops notwithstanding, I think you miss the point: even if people do spend hours in shops, they don't spend hours speaking at close quarters in a group with friends and with strangers, and in a confined space, which is the high-risk behaviour.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    kyf_100 said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    humbugger said:

    A few thoughts:

    1. You've lost the argument if you start citing fuel tank capacity and the bladder capacity of a 4 year old to support your case.
    2. Hatred of Cummings blinds some. The Guardian clearly rushed to judgment before checking all the facts. CHB clearly failed to understand the significance of the statement by Durham Police before rushing to judge that it was crucifying, prior to asking what it meant.
    3. Those who pronounced their verdict before hearing all the evidence displayed their liberal left pro-EU prejudice (The Bishops), their panic (a few Tory MPs) or their trolling (CHB), or were JHB.
    4. 20 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go suggests 345 Tory MPs did not feel strongly enough to agree, for whatever reason. Do the math.
    5. Boris will not take the easy option if he thinks doing so is wrong. He thinks dumping Cummings would have been unfair, or would damage the government or both. Those who think he just wants to be popular are just plain wrong.
    6. The next GE will almost certainly not be for another 4 years. By the time the voters deliver their verdict, Cummings' trip to Durham will be long forgotten.
    7. Big G is correct, the next GE will be depend on how well the voters think the government handles the economy. Unless of course the Corbynite wing leaves Labour and we get a re-run of 1983.

    Good night all.

    Cummings is lucky that it is 4 years until the next General Election and almost a year to the next election of any sort. He is also lucky that we are in the process of coming out of lockdown.

    The key question is whether it does any lasting damage or if it all blows over.
    The lasting legacies of this episode, I think, will be the phrase "follow my instinct" that will become the riposte to instructions anyone is not minded to follow; jokes about driving to test your eyesight; the Johnson/Cummings regime will bunker down and become yet more despotic.

    A bungled Covid-19 response is pretty much baked in, but nobody who rates competence ever votes for Johnson. The risk is if the epidemic takes off again. Then they will be in serious trouble
    If Gupta of Oxford is right then Johnson gets away with all this.

    If she and her team are wrong then the 2nd wave will sweep Johnson into a world of shit he is not prepared for.
    There will be a second wave, the only question is when?
    The really big question is how many people will be prepared to put up with a second lockdown.

    Arguments will be as follows:
    - First one didn't work
    - Can't afford it. My best mate [insert name here] already got made redundant
    - I'm under 45, I've got a higher chance of being run over by a bus
    - Remember that Dominic Cummings... oh, and the other one, the scientist who got caught with his pants down.

    2nd lockdown will only work when people are falling over in the street now.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
    Because (a) that would be mixing households and (b) they wouldn’t have what I assume is a complex medical history if required by doctors
    surely the whole point of the trip was to have assistance if both parents became sick. As they did.

    Your reasons would be valid if they had stayed in Islington.

    The whole point of banning people from going to second homes was to prevent spread and spare overloading regional NHS.

    The whole story is a ridiculous tissue of lies.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,884

    If we end up clearly as the worst hit country in the EU, this incident will surely play into the incompetence that has caused it

    On the other hand, it will mean that we have rejoined the EU, so not all bad.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdata


    Caught up with nursing friend over Skype. The wards are getting busier again. 😬

    Which area of the country?
    inpatient numbers were up in Leicestershire this week, at least on Friday they were.
    Hmm, that's worrying if it's a general phenomenon. It suggests that even the really quite minor relaxation of lockdown which occurred around ten days ago is enough to start bumping up the numbers again.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I think Boris has been dealt a mortal blow. The assertion 'everyone will have forgotten about this by the next general election' is so much guff - Black Wednesday happened at a comparable time into JM's regime. Every political setback that followed was simply magnified by that initial fiasco - JM could never shake it off. We've got the fallout from the virus and, probably, a sub-optimal Brexit still to come. Never mind all the other horrors as yet unseen. I can't see how Boris will ever have the space to recover from this.

    Keep dreaming :smile:
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    "Theatre cannot survive social distancing
    We cannot follow the ‘two-metre rule’ forever.

    Robert Jackman"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/25/theatre-cannot-survive-social-distancing/
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,167
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    You’ve clearly never been shopping with my missus
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Andy_JS said:

    "Theatre cannot survive social distancing
    We cannot follow the ‘two-metre rule’ forever.

    Robert Jackman"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/25/theatre-cannot-survive-social-distancing/

    Everyone in the theatre was checking their eyesight still worked?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdata


    Caught up with nursing friend over Skype. The wards are getting busier again. 😬

    Which area of the country?
    inpatient numbers were up in Leicestershire this week, at least on Friday they were.
    Hmm, that's worrying if it's a general phenomenon. It suggests that even the really quite minor relaxation of lockdown which occurred around ten days ago is enough to start bumping up the numbers again.
    It sounds bad in Weston Super Mare

    https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/weston-hospital-coronavirus-covid-somerset-4162300

    100% increase over the week, and 40% of staff covid positive.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So why can’t cafes and restaurants reopen if shops can?

    I would assume due to length of time spent in them
    Yes, proximity, interaction, and weight of viral load over time

    The worst places are gyms, choirs, churches, mosques, theatres, cinemas, clubs, dance halls, basically anyway indoors where people are crowded together and panting air through singing, laughing, loudly talking

    That is to say: many of the fun places that make life worth living
    And hospitals. There are quite a few hospital acquired infections now.

    On the subject of hospitals: We learnt two new things today. The first is just comical, to do an eye test by driving for an hour, with your beloved family in the car. The second was Cummings Jr going to hospital, and this seems to be the course of events:

    1) family travel 260 miles while becoming unwell, because they needed trustworthy childcare.

    2) both parents unwell, then a few days later, child also.

    3) 999 called and ambulance despatched (presumably because neither parent fit enough to drive the 5 mile trip).

    4) child admitted overnight for tests and observation.

    5) Mother accompanies child, stays overnight in children's ward, in breach of isolation rules.

    So why did she go, rather than one of the potential carers that they had driven 260 miles to call on? Surely that was the whole point of going in the first place?

    Did she declare to the admitting staff that she and her husband were self isolating for Covid-19 symptoms?

    What PPE and isolation techniques were used to prevent spread to other children, parents and staff?



    It's potentially getting into personal life territory, particularly the child's.
    Why did a viral parent go, rather than one of the carers?

    None of the questions that I ask would breech confidentiality.
    Doesn't that depend on the answer?

    (edit: I can imagine possible true answers that would, that are unspoken but implied, e.g. the child visits hospital a lot.)
    No.

    If the reason to go was to have assistance with childcare, why did a viral parent go into a ward of sick children, rather than one of the aunts, uncles or nieces?

    It makes no sense.
    Because (a) that would be mixing households and (b) they wouldn’t have what I assume is a complex medical history if required by doctors
    surely the whole point of the trip was to have assistance if both parents became sick. As they did.

    Your reasons would be valid if they had stayed in Islington.

    The whole point of banning people from going to second homes was to prevent spread and spare overloading regional NHS.

    The whole story is a ridiculous tissue of lies.
    Plus we learnt today that the kid was so sick they called 999.

    One of the reasons for loads of metropolitans to not travel to their 2nd homes was that limited rural NHS could not cope with the extra burden at this really difficult time.

    A case in point.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    I remember the days (last week) when the Covid nationalists would be twisting themselves into knots to prove that these figures didn't really mean what they appeared to mean. It's like everyone's been completely distracted by something.

    Still, Sweden's doing well.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,035
    edited May 2020
    Here's what has changed. People now know who Boris adviser is.
    The more clued up know who his parents are, where he went to school, that he lives in Islington and his in laws live in a castle. And what he did in the Rona days.
    Raging against an unelected elite is done. He'll need to find a new playlist.
    And Boris needs to up his game sharpish. He's wonderful on the front foot as he was today on the last question urging folk to go out and spend. Not great on the defensive.
    He isn't well. We no nowt about the medium to long term effects on survivors.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Foxy said:

    It sounds bad in Weston Super Mare

    https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/weston-hospital-coronavirus-covid-somerset-4162300

    100% increase over the week, and 40% of staff covid positive.

    Yes, although it's only to be expected that there would be local flare-ups even as the overall national case load drops. Given how contagious this virus is, it doesn't take much to trigger something like that.

    I think we'll learn more very soon from the rest of Europe on whether such flare-ups are likely to get out of control as restrictions ease. It seems to me that there's a lot of complacency (generally, not specifically in the UK).
  • Options

    If we end up clearly as the worst hit country in the EU, this incident will surely play into the incompetence that has caused it

    On the other hand, it will mean that we have rejoined the EU, so not all bad.
    Sorry bad habit, I meant in Europe - hope that was clear.

    I am not eager to rejoin the EU, even though I think leaving has been a terrible decision.
This discussion has been closed.