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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: Punters still not fully convinced that it’ll be Trump

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Stay alert.

    Goodnight
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Ave_it said:

    Stay alert.

    Goodnight

    How do you plan on staying alert while sleeping, hmm?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    The massive scandal that is care home and social care under Covid being taken apart on Newsnight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    DougSeal said:
    Do you not have an appropriate Klaxon to use at a time like this?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Rasmussen have only had Trump ahead once vs Biden.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    eadric said:

    Trust me. After our economy shrinks by 10-20% in 6 months, along with economies all around the world, and we enter a recession so severe its like is not within the purview of living memory, the chance that we will still remember it in about 18 months is “quite high”

    Even if we get a vaccine, as you so poignantly assume.

    But be of good cheer. You have set a standard. It normally takes new commenters about 4-6 weeks to reveal themselves as goggle-eyed pinheads, you’ve done it in fifteen minutes
    It took you years to be this full of piss and wind
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    Do you not have an appropriate Klaxon to use at a time like this?
    No! I hang my head in shame...thankfully Eadric appears to have gone to bed so I won’t suffer his sick burns
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    "During the course of the API’s development, Apple and Google have made various improvements to ensure that privacy is an utmost consideration , including encrypting all Bluetooth metadata (like signal strength and specific transmitting power), as that could potentially be used to determine what type of device was used, which offers a slim possibility of associating an individual with a specific device and using that as one vector for identification."

    Meanwhile in UK...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016

    Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...

    The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event.
    Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.

    Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Nigelb said:

    The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event.
    Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.

    Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
    It will be the worst in the world, thereby beating everyone to the bottom of the heap?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Nigelb said:

    The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event.
    Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.

    Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
    South Korea waves....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
    When I was a kid there was a book in our house that we all discussed endlessly: Easy Money, by Robin Banks
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016

    The massive scandal that is care home and social care under Covid being taken apart on Newsnight.

    There is certainly a considerable gap between the government account, and that of those actually running care homes.

    There’s also a pretty large gap between the government account of what it did back in March, and the actual policy documents published back then.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,182
    tyson said:

    I miss Roger...he was my kindred spirit....

    I met him a few times...I think you'd have liked him...he was off piste....

    I'm hopeless at sustaining friendships...I'm too lazy. And I like being by myself too much...which outside my wife, doesn't leave me with much space to be sociable....
    wasn't Roger the apologist for Polanski? Sure you want to claim it as a kindred spirit?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    RobD said:

    How do you plan on staying alert while sleeping, hmm?
    Ave It doesn’t sleep.

    He waits.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016
    Nigelb said:

    The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event.
    Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.

    Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
    We could, of course, have trained all these people up before we had the testing capacity rather than waiting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2020
    Charles said:

    When I was a kid there was a book in our house that we all discussed endlessly: Easy Money, by Robin Banks
    Is he the same bloke who does the garffiti people pay silly money for?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016

    Ave It doesn’t sleep.

    He waits.
    ‘ Night gathers, and now my watch begins...’
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,537
    eadric said:

    Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?

    “In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”

    Mmm. Would be surprised if there were no novels, plays, music, movies, histories, sociological and psychological texts or great visual art produced around the broad theme...
    Very surprised.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,204
    To state the obvious the most hopeful scenario is that the virus disappears by itself in a few week's time, plus no further waves or peaks. That scenario isn't quite as far-fetched as it might sound.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ave It doesn’t sleep.

    He waits.
    He lurks
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Is he the same bloke who does the garffiti people pay silly money for?
    No, but his sister-in-law, Miss D. Buss - most famous for The Long Walk Home - was also a noted author
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Charles said:

    He lurks
    Ave it is always around! 😈
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it is always around! 😈
    Semper vigilans
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020
    So much for the Swedish approach. This would also fit with ICL model estimates that the whole country was at just 4%.


    https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263242035680559105
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Andrew said:

    So much for the Swedish approach. This would also fit with ICL model estimates that the whole country was at just 4%.


    https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263240279554789376

    Isn't that lower than in the UK? Oh dear indeed.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:
    Now the Question is, are they have they termed to protesting because they are angry about living with there patents and use that to take there frustration out, or are they living with there parents because there are too buissy protesting to sort out accommodation?

    and how different is this form 'normail' Burliners of that age group?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016
    edited May 2020

    South Korea waves....
    Germany... South Africa...

    Bahrain:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/pitfalls-the-uk-needs-to-avoid-when-contact-tracing-for-coronavirus-john-ashton
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2020
    Andrew said:

    So much for the Swedish approach. This would also fit with ICL model estimates that the whole country was at just 4%.


    https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263242035680559105

    The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.

    “It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”

    They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.

    “It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”

    They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
    Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,204
    edited May 2020
    Andrew said:

    So much for the Swedish approach. This would also fit with ICL model estimates that the whole country was at just 4%.

    As I keep saying we can't possibly know whether the Swedish strategy has been a success or not until the epidemic is over.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    RobD said:

    Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
    Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.

    But still...
  • DensparkDenspark Posts: 68

    Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
    i was working on a project at a bank a couple of years ago when news broke that there'd been an armed robbery at one of the branches in the city. The reaction from the bank head office staff was a mixture of misty eyed nostalgia and incredulity that criminals would be so stupid as the potential payoff was so low.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016
    edited May 2020

    Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.

    But still...
    Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think.
    After symptom onset, for most cases.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2020
    Denspark said:

    i was working on a project at a bank a couple of years ago when news broke that there'd been an armed robbery at one of the branches in the city. The reaction from the bank head office staff was a mixture of misty eyed nostalgia and incredulity that criminals would be so stupid as the potential payoff was so low.
    A few years around round our way a gang was knocking over a rural shops at about one a week. They were only getting about £1-2k per job. When they caught them, there was 4 of them involved, and apparently it took them several days to steal a car, check out the place they were going to go over etc.

    By the time you take all that into consideration, be easier / better paid to just have a regular job.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Nigelb said:

    Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think.
    After symptom onset, for most cases.
    Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    .

    Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
    It's wrong, perhaps? ;)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826
    Nigelb said:
    (Don't ) book it Danno -- Covid -19!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016

    Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
    Modelling this pandemic is clearly a very imprecise science.

    I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020
    Brazil 20k new cases today alone. That's a pretty terrifying number given how few tests they're doing - hard to figure precise numbers, but their total test count so far seems to be similar to Portugal or Belgium (but with 20x the population).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
    Wishful thinking.
  • FerefireFerefire Posts: 4
    edited May 2020
    Right, I've been a regular lurker for the last 5+ years and enjoy this website - particularly reading the replies!

    I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -

    1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.

    2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.

    3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.

    I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away due to these issues. I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?

    Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    edited May 2020
    Ferefire said:

    Right, I've been a regular lurker for the last 5+ years and enjoy this website - particularly reading the replies!

    I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -

    1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.

    2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.

    3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.

    I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away! I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?

    Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.

    @Ferefire - welcome! As a fallback, you can view the comments through this link - https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion

    I've flagged your comment to the powers that be. I know the new website was only just released, so easy to imagine some teething problems.
  • FerefireFerefire Posts: 4
    RobD said:

    @Ferefire - welcome! As a fallback, you can view the comments through this link - https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion

    I've flagged your comment to the powers that be. I know the new website was only just released, so easy to imagine some teething problems.
    I appreciate that, thanks RobD. I've gone through a similar process of upgrading my own community during this period and hit a lot of issues and feedback from members. I worry that this site isn't being informed for one reason or the other of issues, so I hope (perhaps I am ignorant, and I hope that I am) I can lend my feedback here.
  • FerefireFerefire Posts: 4
    In all honesty, it's likely a CSS issue in the stylesheets, possibly under a responsive file designed for mobile. I've tried to look up the "Neat!" theme this site uses, but can't seem to find it, so anything beyond that would be a guess.
  • FerefireFerefire Posts: 4
    @RobD this is how I currently see this site on mobile -

    https://we.tl/t-olqZQMQg1I

    My colleague tried to also post just now, and can confirm the same results as me, basically it refused to post with the post grayed out -

    https://we.tl/t-awHFd2uauS

    These are major major problems if this site wishes to get engagement from mobile users.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    Modelling this pandemic is clearly a very imprecise science.

    I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
    Isn't sensitivity to initial conditions a hallmark of this type of system. And why international comparisons are fraught at a fundamental epistemological level.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think.
    After symptom onset, for most cases.

    CDC says 1-2 weeks
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016
    TimT said:

    CDC says 1-2 weeks
    Sounds right - I should have said two weeks for most cases to have seroconverted.
    (Which is the relevant figure for the Swedish stats.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016
    edited May 2020
    TimT said:

    Isn't sensitivity to initial conditions a hallmark of this type of system. And why international comparisons are fraught at a fundamental epistemological level.
    Good point.
    Though models are capable of throwing up figures well beyond reality as well.

    At least the real world, however unbelievable, is (probably) real.
This discussion has been closed.