"There is no automatic entitlement to any benefits that the EU may have offered or granted in other contexts and circumstances to other, often very different, partners."
I think if we end up walking away then in the battle of public opinion the UK government has easily won this round over Barnier.
Quoting chapter and verse what they're looking for, why its been deemed acceptable before and to whom was a stroke of genius. Barnier stammering that the UK can't get the same without a reason is going to impress nobody neutral.
Why should Barnier care about UK public opinion, or to put it differently, why is UK public opinion more important than EU27 public opinion?
Because the EU don't want us to walk away and the government is prepared to do so.
The UK holds the cards.
Except walking away will be a disaster whatever Boris fanboys say
It really won’t. Covid-19 is a disaster. Hard Brexit is a modest prang in comparison. We might not even notice, amidst the horror of a second wave
So its a bit like having a foot removed, a mere trifle and not of any consequence whatsover in comparison to having the offending leg amputated instead?
Hard Brexit is not a foot amputation, you spineless cuck. We know this because we now KNOW what a real disaster feels like: as we’re in one.
If you need an analogy Hard Brexit is tonsillitis, Corona is throat cancer.
Actually, Brexit is like Polio an utterly pernicious multilateral infection which causes debilitating and permanent damage. It could be a limp, nerve damage or paralysis but damage will be done either way and its permanent. The other similarity to Brexit is that Polio is caused by swallowing faecal matter.
Covid 19 on the other hand is, well, Covid 19. A disease that kills very few, leaves most unaffected permanently and the outcome depends somewhat on luck but largely on preparation (general health). It seems to be treatable and there will be a vaccine.
In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used - the topic of conversation will still be the fall-out from Brexit and it will continue to be discussed as long as there is an EU for the UK to re- join, leave or remain in i.e. for the rest of my lifetime at least.
Hahahahahah
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
“ In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Congratulations on creating one of the stupidest comments in PB’s illustrious history of stupidity, in just your first hour on the site. Well played.
Well you may be the expert on creating stupid comments but that doesn't necessarily qualify you to detect them.
Trust me. After our economy shrinks by 10-20% in 6 months, along with economies all around the world, and we enter a recession so severe its like is not within the purview of living memory, the chance that we will still remember it in about 18 months is “quite high”
Even if we get a vaccine, as you so poignantly assume.
But be of good cheer. You have set a standard. It normally takes new commenters about 4-6 weeks to reveal themselves as goggle-eyed pinheads, you’ve done it in fifteen minutes
It took you years to be this full of piss and wind
"During the course of the API’s development, Apple and Google have made various improvements to ensure that privacy is an utmost consideration , including encrypting all Bluetooth metadata (like signal strength and specific transmitting power), as that could potentially be used to determine what type of device was used, which offers a slim possibility of associating an individual with a specific device and using that as one vector for identification."
Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...
The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event. Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...
The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event. Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
It will be the worst in the world, thereby beating everyone to the bottom of the heap?
Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...
The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event. Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Human beings are resilient. Even if CV-19 had carried off the numbers you'd feared, we'd still be talking about other things in two years time.
Not on here.
We'll still be talking about Brexit.
Two things give me comfort in these dark times. Firstly, I know that if I try to rob a bank, whether or not I succeed, my food and rent will be sorted for the next 10 years or so. Secondly, the recursive loop of PB’s Brexit discussions is proof positive that some things on this mortal realm really are eternal.
Rob a bank ?- how very 1960s. You have to phish it nowadays.
I’m old school like that
Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
When I was a kid there was a book in our house that we all discussed endlessly: Easy Money, by Robin Banks
"There is no automatic entitlement to any benefits that the EU may have offered or granted in other contexts and circumstances to other, often very different, partners."
I think if we end up walking away then in the battle of public opinion the UK government has easily won this round over Barnier.
Quoting chapter and verse what they're looking for, why its been deemed acceptable before and to whom was a stroke of genius. Barnier stammering that the UK can't get the same without a reason is going to impress nobody neutral.
Why should Barnier care about UK public opinion, or to put it differently, why is UK public opinion more important than EU27 public opinion?
Because the EU don't want us to walk away and the government is prepared to do so.
The UK holds the cards.
Except walking away will be a disaster whatever Boris fanboys say
It really won’t. Covid-19 is a disaster. Hard Brexit is a modest prang in comparison. We might not even notice, amidst the horror of a second wave
So its a bit like having a foot removed, a mere trifle and not of any consequence whatsover in comparison to having the offending leg amputated instead?
Hard Brexit is not a foot amputation, you spineless cuck. We know this because we now KNOW what a real disaster feels like: as we’re in one.
If you need an analogy Hard Brexit is tonsillitis, Corona is throat cancer.
Actually, Brexit is like Polio an utterly pernicious multilateral infection which causes debilitating and permanent damage. It could be a limp, nerve damage or paralysis but damage will be done either way and its permanent. The other similarity to Brexit is that Polio is caused by swallowing faecal matter.
Covid 19 on the other hand is, well, Covid 19. A disease that kills very few, leaves most unaffected permanently and the outcome depends somewhat on luck but largely on preparation (general health). It seems to be treatable and there will be a vaccine.
In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used - the topic of conversation will still be the fall-out from Brexit and it will continue to be discussed as long as there is an EU for the UK to re- join, leave or remain in i.e. for the rest of my lifetime at least.
Hahahahahah
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
“ In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Congratulations on creating one of the stupidest comments in PB’s illustrious history of stupidity, in just your first hour on the site. Well played.
Well you may be the expert on creating stupid comments but that doesn't necessarily qualify you to detect them.
Trust me. After our economy shrinks by 10-20% in 6 months, along with economies all around the world, and we enter a recession so severe its like is not within the purview of living memory, the chances are we still remember it in about 18 months are “quite high”
Even if we get a vaccine, as you so poignantly assume.
But be of good cheer. You have set a standard. It normally takes new commenters about 4-6 weeks to reveal themselves as goggle-eyed pinheads, you’ve done it in fifteen minutes
I'd ignore Eadric...antotherexx....he is this site's Michael Moore polemicist...and anyone is fair game.......but, sadly, his posts are readable.....
Anotherex-Tory has quite cheered me up
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used“
It’s worthy of Rogerdamus at his best. And Roger was good. I miss him.
Buenos Noches, I am off to watch Narcos Mexico, which is rather fine.
What happened to Roger?
I dunno. Hope he’s OK. He and I often crossed sabres but he always took it in very good humour, and He was excellent value with his Oscar Predictions. He knew a LOT about movies, tho less about economics.
I miss the affluent old lefty.
I miss Roger...he was my kindred spirit....
I met him a few times...I think you'd have liked him...he was off piste....
I'm hopeless at sustaining friendships...I'm too lazy. And I like being by myself too much...which outside my wife, doesn't leave me with much space to be sociable....
wasn't Roger the apologist for Polanski? Sure you want to claim it as a kindred spirit?
Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...
The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event. Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
We could, of course, have trained all these people up before we had the testing capacity rather than waiting.
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Human beings are resilient. Even if CV-19 had carried off the numbers you'd feared, we'd still be talking about other things in two years time.
Not on here.
We'll still be talking about Brexit.
Two things give me comfort in these dark times. Firstly, I know that if I try to rob a bank, whether or not I succeed, my food and rent will be sorted for the next 10 years or so. Secondly, the recursive loop of PB’s Brexit discussions is proof positive that some things on this mortal realm really are eternal.
Rob a bank ?- how very 1960s. You have to phish it nowadays.
I’m old school like that
Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
When I was a kid there was a book in our house that we all discussed endlessly: Easy Money, by Robin Banks
Is he the same bloke who does the garffiti people pay silly money for?
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Mmm. Would be surprised if there were no novels, plays, music, movies, histories, sociological and psychological texts or great visual art produced around the broad theme... Very surprised.
To state the obvious the most hopeful scenario is that the virus disappears by itself in a few week's time, plus no further waves or peaks. That scenario isn't quite as far-fetched as it might sound.
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Human beings are resilient. Even if CV-19 had carried off the numbers you'd feared, we'd still be talking about other things in two years time.
Not on here.
We'll still be talking about Brexit.
Two things give me comfort in these dark times. Firstly, I know that if I try to rob a bank, whether or not I succeed, my food and rent will be sorted for the next 10 years or so. Secondly, the recursive loop of PB’s Brexit discussions is proof positive that some things on this mortal realm really are eternal.
Rob a bank ?- how very 1960s. You have to phish it nowadays.
I’m old school like that
Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
When I was a kid there was a book in our house that we all discussed endlessly: Easy Money, by Robin Banks
Is he the same bloke who does the garffiti people pay silly money for?
No, but his sister-in-law, Miss D. Buss - most famous for The Long Walk Home - was also a noted author
Now the Question is, are they have they termed to protesting because they are angry about living with there patents and use that to take there frustration out, or are they living with there parents because there are too buissy protesting to sort out accommodation?
and how different is this form 'normail' Burliners of that age group?
Looks like our world-beating track n trace system will be based on post-it notes and lengths of twine...
The ‘world beating’ schlick is bollocks in any event. Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Human beings are resilient. Even if CV-19 had carried off the numbers you'd feared, we'd still be talking about other things in two years time.
Not on here.
We'll still be talking about Brexit.
Two things give me comfort in these dark times. Firstly, I know that if I try to rob a bank, whether or not I succeed, my food and rent will be sorted for the next 10 years or so. Secondly, the recursive loop of PB’s Brexit discussions is proof positive that some things on this mortal realm really are eternal.
Rob a bank ?- how very 1960s. You have to phish it nowadays.
I’m old school like that
Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
i was working on a project at a bank a couple of years ago when news broke that there'd been an armed robbery at one of the branches in the city. The reaction from the bank head office staff was a mixture of misty eyed nostalgia and incredulity that criminals would be so stupid as the potential payoff was so low.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Can we preserve this comment in a large ingot of tariff-free Lithuanian amber?
“In 2022 we won't be talking about Covid 19 other than which vaccine was used”
Human beings are resilient. Even if CV-19 had carried off the numbers you'd feared, we'd still be talking about other things in two years time.
Not on here.
We'll still be talking about Brexit.
Two things give me comfort in these dark times. Firstly, I know that if I try to rob a bank, whether or not I succeed, my food and rent will be sorted for the next 10 years or so. Secondly, the recursive loop of PB’s Brexit discussions is proof positive that some things on this mortal realm really are eternal.
Rob a bank ?- how very 1960s. You have to phish it nowadays.
I’m old school like that
Robbing a bank will fall into that quaint category of serious offences that nobody does these days because they are so passe like Piracy on the High Seas , Witchcraft and Beating a Carpet Rug in a Main Thouroughfare
i was working on a project at a bank a couple of years ago when news broke that there'd been an armed robbery at one of the branches in the city. The reaction from the bank head office staff was a mixture of misty eyed nostalgia and incredulity that criminals would be so stupid as the potential payoff was so low.
A few years around round our way a gang was knocking over a rural shops at about one a week. They were only getting about £1-2k per job. When they caught them, there was 4 of them involved, and apparently it took them several days to steal a car, check out the place they were going to go over etc.
By the time you take all that into consideration, be easier / better paid to just have a regular job.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
Modelling this pandemic is clearly a very imprecise science.
I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
Brazil 20k new cases today alone. That's a pretty terrifying number given how few tests they're doing - hard to figure precise numbers, but their total test count so far seems to be similar to Portugal or Belgium (but with 20x the population).
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
Right, I've been a regular lurker for the last 5+ years and enjoy this website - particularly reading the replies!
I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -
1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.
2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.
3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.
I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away due to these issues. I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?
Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.
Right, I've been a regular lurker for the last 5+ years and enjoy this website - particularly reading the replies!
I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -
1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.
2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.
3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.
I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away! I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?
Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.
Right, I've been a regular lurker for the last 5+ years and enjoy this website - particularly reading the replies!
I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -
1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.
2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.
3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.
I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away! I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?
Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.
I've flagged your comment to the powers that be. I know the new website was only just released, so easy to imagine some teething problems.
I appreciate that, thanks RobD. I've gone through a similar process of upgrading my own community during this period and hit a lot of issues and feedback from members. I worry that this site isn't being informed for one reason or the other of issues, so I hope (perhaps I am ignorant, and I hope that I am) I can lend my feedback here.
In all honesty, it's likely a CSS issue in the stylesheets, possibly under a responsive file designed for mobile. I've tried to look up the "Neat!" theme this site uses, but can't seem to find it, so anything beyond that would be a guess.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
Modelling this pandemic is clearly a very imprecise science.
I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
Isn't sensitivity to initial conditions a hallmark of this type of system. And why international comparisons are fraught at a fundamental epistemological level.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
CDC says 1-2 weeks
Sounds right - I should have said two weeks for most cases to have seroconverted. (Which is the relevant figure for the Swedish stats.)
The findings were roughly in line with models predicting a third of the Swedish capital’s population would have had the virus by now and where at least limited herd immunity could have set in, the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
Despite the evidence showing they haven't?
Remember it take 4-6 weeks to develop the antibodies. So the results are basically how many people had it lets says by the end of March.
But still...
Seroconversion takes about two weeks, I think. After symptom onset, for most cases.
Absolutely no idea how their model gets to 30% then.
Modelling this pandemic is clearly a very imprecise science.
I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
Isn't sensitivity to initial conditions a hallmark of this type of system. And why international comparisons are fraught at a fundamental epistemological level.
Good point. Though models are capable of throwing up figures well beyond reality as well.
At least the real world, however unbelievable, is (probably) real.
Comments
Goodnight
Meanwhile in UK...
Track and trace is a simple, low tech process; you just need a lot of trained people, and to be proactive. And testing capacity to back it up.
Not sure how we beat the world at it when other countries have been doing it for months.
There’s also a pretty large gap between the government account of what it did back in March, and the actual policy documents published back then.
He waits.
https://twitter.com/kieranpandrews/status/1263187136074915842?s=21
Very surprised.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263242035680559105
and how different is this form 'normail' Burliners of that age group?
Bahrain:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/pitfalls-the-uk-needs-to-avoid-when-contact-tracing-for-coronavirus-john-ashton
“It is a little bit lower (than expected) but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent,” Tegnell told a Stockholm news conference. “It squares pretty well with the models we have.”
They are still sticking to this claim of very high number of people having had it.
But still...
After symptom onset, for most cases.
By the time you take all that into consideration, be easier / better paid to just have a regular job.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/19/world/science-health-world/dont-come-hawaii-mothballs-17-8-billion-tourist-industry/
I posted a paper earlier today which demonstrated that outcomes are very sensitive to small changes in assumptions and initial inputs into epidemiological models.
I have to say this update, while I understand what you're doing is going to really undermine yourselves. This is for several reasons -
1. I try to load pages via mobile and no replies come up for nearly a minute. This is not good.
2. I try and reply via mobile, it does not let me reply. This is worse.
3. It does not show about the first few letters of people's posts (on every single new line) when viewing mobile.
I 100% understand that upgrades take time and there will be bugs to be worked out, but I see a lack of addressing or even acknowledging here, and to that I am very disappointed. Come on now, plenty of time - this won't work if your site turns new people away due to these issues. I run my own community/sites and I completely get how difficult this can be, but I see a lack of uh effort here which is a concern?
Is there a bug testing thread or something here? How can this be reported? Come on now.
I've flagged your comment to the powers that be. I know the new website was only just released, so easy to imagine some teething problems.
https://we.tl/t-olqZQMQg1I
My colleague tried to also post just now, and can confirm the same results as me, basically it refused to post with the post grayed out -
https://we.tl/t-awHFd2uauS
These are major major problems if this site wishes to get engagement from mobile users.
CDC says 1-2 weeks
(Which is the relevant figure for the Swedish stats.)
Though models are capable of throwing up figures well beyond reality as well.
At least the real world, however unbelievable, is (probably) real.