This is what I was talking about last week when I felt that the UK was fast approaching the limit of QE. The markets are starting to notice that there isn't any kind of long term plan in the UK and the government has completely lost control of the situation.
The underlying problem is that you cannot permanently consume more goods and services than you produce.
I bought a new PC recently on the basis sterling is about to go into the shitter.
Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:
Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.
You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.
Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.
Crisp tax anyone?
I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.
Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.
A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
Walking doesn’t have the cardio workout. I have tried running but my knees and ankles remind me why I liked the non impact cross trainer in the gym. I am looking forward to getting back.
I am doing circuits of press-ups, sit-ups, squats and lunges every other day. Five sets of 13, 15, 18 and 18, pus another 10 press-ups on top. It takes about 25 minutes and is deeply unpleasant, but it has stopped me putting on even more weight than I have. Chocolate is a killer currently.
I do 10 press ups every time I go for a pee. Meaning with a weak bladder I have developed quite some biceps. Almost popeye standard.
I would have thought it would have developed a much stronger bladder first :-)
Or a very wet floor.
Clarification! -
I do 10 press ups every time I have a pee, not a pee every time I do 10 press ups.
Thanks for that. Phew! I was wondering how many press ups you had to do to allow you to take a shit.
That's exactly what the local state school I know of are setting up, practicing and generally working on at the moment.
It is also what has been done in other countries, I believe.
Completely unworkable for a large number of schools unless you take only half the pupils back.
Serious question. Could you not have half in in the morning and half in the afternoon, extending the school day a bit if necessary? Surely that would be better than nothing
Good luck negotiating overtime rates for "extending the school day a bit" but of course you would also lose much of the childminding function of schools, allowing mum and dad to put in a full shift at the salt mines while junior learns Latin and paints NHS rainbows.
Teachers are already paid well for working a half day as it is, 20 weeks vacation etc , why would they need overtime.
Love it when Malc gives vent to his inner Tory.
Personally I prefer the anti-Tory rants. It's like watching Liberace suing people for saying he wasn't a "family man"....
This is what I was talking about last week when I felt that the UK was fast approaching the limit of QE. The markets are starting to notice that there isn't any kind of long term plan in the UK and the government has completely lost control of the situation.
Currency rates measure relative performance, not absolute. Attributing people speculating against sterling to the UK's absence of a long-term plan assumes that the US's divided and disfunctional government has a better one, which I'm not sure about at all.
Anyway £750m is not even a drop in the ocean in forex markets.
This is what I was talking about last week when I felt that the UK was fast approaching the limit of QE. The markets are starting to notice that there isn't any kind of long term plan in the UK and the government has completely lost control of the situation.
Currency rates measure relative performance, not absolute. Attributing people speculating against sterling to the UK's absence of a long-term plan assumes that the US's divided and disfunctional government has a better one, which I'm not sure about at all.
Anyway £750m is not even a drop in the ocean in forex markets.
I would have assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that there is over a £1bn bet on sterlings direction (for and against) every trading of the year?
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
Yep. I think we can probably surmise what caused this. There was such a desperation to get rid of the elderly from hospitals, to clear capacity for new Covid patients, that they were just thrown at the care homes to get them out of the way. I seem to recall reading elsewhere that homes which initially refused to have them back were threatened (by councils?) with having funding withdrawn if they dug their heels in, so they gave in. We all know how this ended.
Looking at what's happened abroad it looks like pretty well everyone screwed up when it came to care homes, but that doesn't make the failure any more excusable.
In England and Wales, 9 039 out of 12 483 covid-related deaths, by 1st May, were in care homes and that is 72.4%.
I presume that in a bad winter flu epidemic, the bulk of deaths are also in care homes?
Still shocking numbers mind. A tacit acceptance by the NHS that if they were over 80, there really was in all likelihood nothing that could be done for victims? Outcomes were proving very poor for the elderly taken into hospital - they just didn't respond. So let them die in the place they knew as home...
Have to say it has been a shocking failure across the UK and many other countries. In the main these homes have been run like puppy farms just to make venture capitalists money. Needs to be a complete rethink of the whole social care policy.
Absolutely right
We can't afford that, though, just like we can;t afford a new normal. The evidence is we will shortly be very, very bankrupt.
People talk about innovation and new ways of working for certain industries without giving a single detail of what those ways are. That is because those alternative ways do not exist.
We either live with coronavirus or, essentially, our society disintegrates. Health education, the economy, the whole thing
And for most people its pretty liveable with.
Good post Contrarian
Why doesn’t the government ‘level with the British public’ and say we’re broke and we can’t afford to lockdown any further regardless of the ongoing risks.
Agreed. They should do. They are not leading they are weathervaning.
They won`t take us out of lockdown until opinion polls and focus groups tell them it`s OK. The polls won`t say it`s OK while: 1) Sunak keeps chucking money at people for staying at home and 2) politicians and the media are terryfying people about the virus, saying things like "don`t go back to work until it`s safe".
Of course it`s not safe FFS. Public perception of risk is appalling. I told a family member the other day that Covid has a survival rate of over 99% and she flatly disbelieved me. I asked her what she though the survival rate was and she said 50/50.
The lockdown served a number of purposes.
The primary purpose was to avoid the horror of people dying in hospital corridors. And thankfully that was achieved.
The second purpose was to buy time. Time to figure a post lockdown policy and build up capacity in services like testing. I think the goal might have been to get cases down so that track and trace was viable again. Sadly that has not been achieved.
So where are we and why can't we lockdown a bit more?
In short, the public finances have collapsed. So we are now in the invidious position of having to exit lockdown into a very muddy context, where the possibility of returning to the pre-lockdown situation has not and can not be ruled out.
The government should be focusing on delivering and communicating mitigating measures that maintain (or regain) public confidence. Arguably as we leave lockdown, the best action would have been to be more stringent on certain things. It could have insisted on masks for example.
Instead it appears to be rushing the whole thing, probably driven by the critical state of the nations finances. It's saying 'it will be fine' doesn't really wash. Especially, when it hasn't told the whole story about how the lockdown has screwed the economy. As a result it does not add up.
In short, the government has made two mistakes.
1) It has not set out the economic picture. 2) It has done nothing to mitigate the risks of exiting lockdown.
Excellent post, Jonathan.
I`m forever arguing that the economic (and liberty) aspects of this have been undervalued and have not been communicated. Most of the public do not understand the first thing about public finances (e.g. believing that the government has its own money somehow, rather than just administering ours).
Scaring the public over health is easy (and appeals to the journos). The economy is dry and difficult.
My main beef at the moment is that this government`s populism is costing the country dearly.
As Jonathan says, why doesn't the government just level with the electorate?
I think it should have done. Ideally before Sunak extended the furlough scheme from three months to four.
One reason might be that honesty undermines their threat of a second lockdown if we are naughty and R goes up.
In reality the country simply cannot afford a second lockdown, and that is an empty threat.
I don't think most people will put up with a second lockdown.
As far as I can tell people have more or less divided into two camps, the pearl clutchers who will not accept a single covid 19 death as inevitable, despite the fact that life entails risk and for the vast majority of healthy people under 60 there is a greater risk of being run over by a bus tomorrow than of dying of covid 19.
The other camp is full of people who have realised this and are barely paying lip service to lockdown any more. Without truly draconian measures it will be impossible to lock this second camp up for round II, rendering a second lockdown pointless and ineffective.
There will be no second lockdown. Not only will it cost too much, it simply won't work. That means only one thing: we need to shield the elderly and the vulnerable, but find a way to get everyone else back into work.
Stay at home and save lives was a simple message, work and pay tax is equally as simple. It's the latter that we need now to save the NHS.
Very good post - though I would oppose "shielding" anyone if by that you mean by compulsory means.
I agree. I can't speak for everyone over 60, but all the ones I know (mostly family - a few colleagues and ex colleagues) would rather live with the risk than not see their grandkids again, not be able to socialise, etc. But we should make it easy for them to self isolate if they choose to.
I was thinking more of a way to shield the superannuated, the ones in care homes who aren't getting out much any more and may not have more years left to live. Ultimately they are the ones most at risk from covid 19. We need to protect life but not at the cost of the entire economy.
Most people of working age need to accept that there will be some risk and get back to work. The economy, and by implication the public services it supports, needs us all to do our duty.
A second lockdown is an awful prospect but I think it would be done if the virus runs out of control again. If the NHS collapsing was deemed unacceptable in March I don't see why it would be deemed acceptable in November.
Yep. I think we can probably surmise what caused this. There was such a desperation to get rid of the elderly from hospitals, to clear capacity for new Covid patients, that they were just thrown at the care homes to get them out of the way. I seem to recall reading elsewhere that homes which initially refused to have them back were threatened (by councils?) with having funding withdrawn if they dug their heels in, so they gave in. We all know how this ended.
Looking at what's happened abroad it looks like pretty well everyone screwed up when it came to care homes, but that doesn't make the failure any more excusable.
In England and Wales, 9 039 out of 12 483 covid-related deaths, by 1st May, were in care homes and that is 72.4%.
I presume that in a bad winter flu epidemic, the bulk of deaths are also in care homes?
Still shocking numbers mind. A tacit acceptance by the NHS that if they were over 80, there really was in all likelihood nothing that could be done for victims? Outcomes were proving very poor for the elderly taken into hospital - they just didn't respond. So let them die in the place they knew as home...
Have to say it has been a shocking failure across the UK and many other countries. In the main these homes have been run like puppy farms just to make venture capitalists money. Needs to be a complete rethink of the whole social care policy.
Absolutely right
We can't afford that, though, just like we can;t afford a new normal. The evidence is we will shortly be very, very bankrupt.
People talk about innovation and new ways of working for certain industries without giving a single detail of what those ways are. That is because those alternative ways do not exist.
We either live with coronavirus or, essentially, our society disintegrates. Health education, the economy, the whole thing
And for most people its pretty liveable with.
Good post Contrarian
Why doesn’t the government ‘level with the British public’ and say we’re broke and we can’t afford to lockdown any further regardless of the ongoing risks.
Agreed. They should do. They are not leading they are weathervaning.
They won`t take us out of lockdown until opinion polls and focus groups tell them it`s OK. The polls won`t say it`s OK while: 1) Sunak keeps chucking money at people for staying at home and 2) politicians and the media are terryfying people about the virus, saying things like "don`t go back to work until it`s safe".
Of course it`s not safe FFS. Public perception of risk is appalling. I told a family member the other day that Covid has a survival rate of over 99% and she flatly disbelieved me. I asked her what she though the survival rate was and she said 50/50.
The lockdown served a number of purposes.
The primary purpose was to avoid the horror of people dying in hospital corridors. And thankfully that was achieved.
The second purpose was to buy time. Time to figure a post lockdown policy and build up capacity in services like testing. I think the goal might have been to get cases down so that track and trace was viable again. Sadly that has not been achieved.
So where are we and why can't we lockdown a bit more?
In short, the public finances have collapsed. So we are now in the invidious position of having to exit lockdown into a very muddy context, where the possibility of returning to the pre-lockdown situation has not and can not be ruled out.
The government should be focusing on delivering and communicating mitigating measures that maintain (or regain) public confidence. Arguably as we leave lockdown, the best action would have been to be more stringent on certain things. It could have insisted on masks for example.
Instead it appears to be rushing the whole thing, probably driven by the critical state of the nations finances. It's saying 'it will be fine' doesn't really wash. Especially, when it hasn't told the whole story about how the lockdown has screwed the economy. As a result it does not add up.
In short, the government has made two mistakes.
1) It has not set out the economic picture. 2) It has done nothing to mitigate the risks of exiting lockdown.
Excellent post, Jonathan.
I`m forever arguing that the economic (and liberty) aspects of this have been undervalued and have not been communicated. Most of the public do not understand the first thing about public finances (e.g. believing that the government has its own money somehow, rather than just administering ours).
Scaring the public over health is easy (and appeals to the journos). The economy is dry and difficult.
My main beef at the moment is that this government`s populism is costing the country dearly.
As Jonathan says, why doesn't the government just level with the electorate?
I think it should have done. Ideally before Sunak extended the furlough scheme from three months to four.
One reason might be that honesty undermines their threat of a second lockdown if we are naughty and R goes up.
In reality the country simply cannot afford a second lockdown, and that is an empty threat.
I don't think most people will put up with a second lockdown.
As far as I can tell people have more or less divided into two camps, the pearl clutchers who will not accept a single covid 19 death as inevitable, despite the fact that life entails risk and for the vast majority of healthy people under 60 there is a greater risk of being run over by a bus tomorrow than of dying of covid 19.
The other camp is full of people who have realised this and are barely paying lip service to lockdown any more. Without truly draconian measures it will be impossible to lock this second camp up for round II, rendering a second lockdown pointless and ineffective.
There will be no second lockdown. Not only will it cost too much, it simply won't work. That means only one thing: we need to shield the elderly and the vulnerable, but find a way to get everyone else back into work.
Stay at home and save lives was a simple message, work and pay tax is equally as simple. It's the latter that we need now to save the NHS.
Very good post - though I would oppose "shielding" anyone if by that you mean by compulsory means.
I agree. I can't speak for everyone over 60, but all the ones I know (mostly family - a few colleagues and ex colleagues) would rather live with the risk than not see their grandkids again, not be able to socialise, etc. But we should make it easy for them to self isolate if they choose to.
I was thinking more of a way to shield the superannuated, the ones in care homes who aren't getting out much any more and may not have more years left to live. Ultimately they are the ones most at risk from covid 19. We need to protect life but not at the cost of the entire economy.
Most people of working age need to accept that there will be some risk and get back to work. The economy, and by implication the public services it supports, needs us all to do our duty.
A second lockdown is an awful prospect but I think it would be done if the virus runs out of control again. If the NHS collapsing was deemed unacceptable in March I don't see why it would be deemed acceptable in November.
Because we have learned how difficult it is to come out of lockdown (something I could have told them from the start if they had asked me).
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
All this is true of course, but it is our saintly and perfect NHS that discharges patients after considering carefully if they are ready and where the right next destination is. Boris is only the Prime Minister.
Well lockdown IS over. The government has said so.
When did the government say that?
The change from stay home to stay alert. The relaxation of the "rules". The encouragement to go back to work if possible. The plan to open schools. The green light for sport BCD. The 5 level monitor. The planned winding down of furlough.
PB has this weird obsession with anti-Independence and pro-Toryism. There's very little in between
Oddly enough, so does the United Kingdom
The right notes, but not necessarily in the right order.
'Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:
Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.
You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.
Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.
Crisp tax anyone?
I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.
Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.
A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
Walking doesn’t have the cardio workout. I have tried running but my knees and ankles remind me why I liked the non impact cross trainer in the gym. I am looking forward to getting back.
I am doing circuits of press-ups, sit-ups, squats and lunges every other day. Five sets of 13, 15, 18 and 18, pus another 10 press-ups on top. It takes about 25 minutes and is deeply unpleasant, but it has stopped me putting on even more weight than I have. Chocolate is a killer currently.
I do 10 press ups every time I go for a pee. Meaning with a weak bladder I have developed quite some biceps. Almost popeye standard.
I would have thought it would have developed a much stronger bladder first :-)
Or a very wet floor.
Clarification! -
I do 10 press ups every time I have a pee, not a pee every time I do 10 press ups.
Thanks for that. Phew! I was wondering how many press ups you had to do to allow you to take a shit.
Glad to put your mind at rest. That would benefit no-one. But my system ... well there's a lot worse on the market.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
Well lockdown IS over. The government has said so.
When did the government say that?
The change from stay home to stay alert. The relaxation of the "rules". The encouragement to go back to work if possible. The plan to open schools. The green light for sport BCD. The 5 level monitor. The planned winding down of furlough.
To me, this says End Of Lockdown.
Nice and woolly so that when the numbers rocket they can blame it on the great unwashed and claim they did not follow the great 5 level plan and did not start at the correct 3.5 starting point
PB has this weird obsession with anti-Independence and pro-Toryism. There's very little in between
Oddly enough, so does the United Kingdom
The right notes, but not necessarily in the right order.
'Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
Given that the two options on offer were a risk of the UK ceasing to exist and a guarantee of the UK ceasing to exist, it' s not hard to see why a majority plumped for the former.
Normal Sundays have open shops, open pubs, open restaurants and sport.
People wandering about in the open air take a smaller risk than if crammed together indoors for hours on end. There is much less social compression in urban parks with acres of grass, or on public beaches with acres of sand. Footpaths in the countryside are often quite narrow and tricky to negotiate with distancing. But if you chose to walk along a path and meet someone coming the other way, you are both knowingly taking the same risk. A feint smile, a brief hello and on your way asap is the correct procedure. Don't take time to pat their dog.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
All this is true of course, but it is our saintly and perfect NHS that discharges patients after considering carefully if they are ready and where the right next destination is. Boris is only the Prime Minister.
The root cause of the care homes scandal is that that the UK doesn't have a proper policy for quarantine, where infection suspects are kept well away from those presumed not to have the disease. Potentially infected patients being released into care homes is a consequence of that bigger policy failure. They had nowhere else to go. And they still don't.
Nice and woolly so that when the numbers rocket they can blame it on the great unwashed and claim they did not follow the great 5 level plan and did not start at the correct 3.5 starting point
It does have that get-out for the government, yes. Not sure if it would work though. The public don't take kindly to being blamed for things.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
PB has this weird obsession with anti-Independence and pro-Toryism. There's very little in between
Oddly enough, so does the United Kingdom
The right notes, but not necessarily in the right order.
'Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
Yep. I think we can probably surmise what caused this. There was such a desperation to get rid of the elderly from hospitals, to clear capacity for new Covid patients, that they were just thrown at the care homes to get them out of the way. I seem to recall reading elsewhere that homes which initially refused to have them back were threatened (by councils?) with having funding withdrawn if they dug their heels in, so they gave in. We all know how this ended.
Looking at what's happened abroad it looks like pretty well everyone screwed up when it came to care homes, but that doesn't make the failure any more excusable.
In England and Wales, 9 039 out of 12 483 covid-related deaths, by 1st May, were in care homes and that is 72.4%.
I presume that in a bad winter flu epidemic, the bulk of deaths are also in care homes?
Still shocking numbers mind. A tacit acceptance by the NHS that if they were over 80, there really was in all likelihood nothing that could be done for victims? Outcomes were proving very poor for the elderly taken into hospital - they just didn't respond. So let them die in the place they knew as home...
Have to say it has been a shocking failure across the UK and many other countries. In the main these homes have been run like puppy farms just to make venture capitalists money. Needs to be a complete rethink of the whole social care policy.
Absolutely right
We can't afford that, though, just like we can;t afford a new normal. The evidence is we will shortly be very, very bankrupt.
People talk about innovation and new ways of working for certain industries without giving a single detail of what those ways are. That is because those alternative ways do not exist.
We either live with coronavirus or, essentially, our society disintegrates. Health education, the economy, the whole thing
And for most people its pretty liveable with.
Good post Contrarian
Why doesn’t the government ‘level with the British public’ and say we’re broke and we can’t afford to lockdown any further regardless of the ongoing risks.
Agreed. They should do. They are not leading they are weathervaning.
They won`t take us out of lockdown until opinion polls and focus groups tell them it`s OK. The polls won`t say it`s OK while: 1) Sunak keeps chucking money at people for staying at home and 2) politicians and the media are terryfying people about the virus, saying things like "don`t go back to work until it`s safe".
Of course it`s not safe FFS. Public perception of risk is appalling. I told a family member the other day that Covid has a survival rate of over 99% and she flatly disbelieved me. I asked her what she though the survival rate was and she said 50/50.
The lockdown served a number of purposes.
The primary purpose was to avoid the horror of people dying in hospital corridors. And thankfully that was achieved.
The second purpose was to buy time. Time to figure a post lockdown policy and build up capacity in services like testing. I think the goal might have been to get cases down so that track and trace was viable again. Sadly that has not been achieved.
So where are we and why can't we lockdown a bit more?
In short, the public finances have collapsed. So we are now in the invidious position of having to exit lockdown into a very muddy context, where the possibility of returning to the pre-lockdown situation has not and can not be ruled out.
The government should be focusing on delivering and communicating mitigating measures that maintain (or regain) public confidence. Arguably as we leave lockdown, the best action would have been to be more stringent on certain things. It could have insisted on masks for example.
Instead it appears to be rushing the whole thing, probably driven by the critical state of the nations finances. It's saying 'it will be fine' doesn't really wash. Especially, when it hasn't told the whole story about how the lockdown has screwed the economy. As a result it does not add up.
In short, the government has made two mistakes.
1) It has not set out the economic picture. 2) It has done nothing to mitigate the risks of exiting lockdown.
Excellent post, Jonathan.
I`m forever arguing that the economic (and liberty) aspects of this have been undervalued and have not been communicated. Most of the public do not understand the first thing about public finances (e.g. believing that the government has its own money somehow, rather than just administering ours).
Scaring the public over health is easy (and appeals to the journos). The economy is dry and difficult.
My main beef at the moment is that this government`s populism is costing the country dearly.
As Jonathan says, why doesn't the government just level with the electorate?
I think it should have done. Ideally before Sunak extended the furlough scheme from three months to four.
One reason might be that honesty undermines their threat of a second lockdown if we are naughty and R goes up.
In reality the country simply cannot afford a second lockdown, and that is an empty threat.
I don't think most people will put up with a second lockdown.
As far as I can tell people have more or less divided into two camps, the pearl clutchers who will not accept a single covid 19 death as inevitable, despite the fact that life entails risk and for the vast majority of healthy people under 60 there is a greater risk of being run over by a bus tomorrow than of dying of covid 19.
The other camp is full of people who have realised this and are barely paying lip service to lockdown any more. Without truly draconian measures it will be impossible to lock this second camp up for round II, rendering a second lockdown pointless and ineffective.
There will be no second lockdown. Not only will it cost too much, it simply won't work. That means only one thing: we need to shield the elderly and the vulnerable, but find a way to get everyone else back into work.
Stay at home and save lives was a simple message, work and pay tax is equally as simple. It's the latter that we need now to save the NHS.
Very good post - though I would oppose "shielding" anyone if by that you mean by compulsory means.
I agree. I can't speak for everyone over 60, but all the ones I know (mostly family - a few colleagues and ex colleagues) would rather live with the risk than not see their grandkids again, not be able to socialise, etc. But we should make it easy for them to self isolate if they choose to.
I was thinking more of a way to shield the superannuated, the ones in care homes who aren't getting out much any more and may not have more years left to live. Ultimately they are the ones most at risk from covid 19. We need to protect life but not at the cost of the entire economy.
Most people of working age need to accept that there will be some risk and get back to work. The economy, and by implication the public services it supports, needs us all to do our duty.
A second lockdown is an awful prospect but I think it would be done if the virus runs out of control again. If the NHS collapsing was deemed unacceptable in March I don't see why it would be deemed acceptable in November.
Because we have learned how difficult it is to come out of lockdown (something I could have told them from the start if they had asked me).
Very difficult, for sure. However, should the prospect reappear of too much Covid-19 for the NHS to handle, my sense is that a lockdown would be imposed again if this was the only way to prevent it. Of course I very much hope we never get to test whether you or I are correct about this.
Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:
Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.
You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.
Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.
Crisp tax anyone?
I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.
Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.
A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
Going to the gym is also deeply boring, and a waste of money, when it’s far nicer to exercise outdoors. One of the few good things to emerge from this is people exploring their local areas, by bike or foot. I spoke to lady in Wanstead the other day who had lived there for years, and didn’t know it bordered Epping Forest until now.
This schools row is sadly predictable - public servants are always a target for Tories at one time of another. Thing is that both sides are right. You cannot run a school under social distancing rules, and asking teachers to be "heroes" is absurd. Whats more it doesn't matter what the government says will/should happen, people aren't listening. They aren't going to send their kids to schools where the "hero" teachers are taking a risk in having all these kids mixing. Blame the feckless teachers now, it'll be the feckless parents next month.
However, we can't sit here forever in our bunkers. The argument now is about sending the schools back in a few weeks. What about in August/September - will the need for impossible social distancing have gone by then? If not then a deferred problem remains a problem. We may not have a fix by then. But we definitely don't right now. My kids have been off school a few months. What difference does another few months make?
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need just because Guernsey have hired one or two local yokels. Still I suppose in a Tories mind a tax haven with the population of a small town in Scotland, like Ayr, would know best. You are getting ever more desperate, next you will be saying St Helena is better prepared.
I agree. I can't speak for everyone over 60, but all the ones I know (mostly family - a few colleagues and ex colleagues) would rather live with the risk than not see their grandkids again, not be able to socialise, etc. But we should make it easy for them to self isolate if they choose to.
I was thinking more of a way to shield the superannuated, the ones in care homes who aren't getting out much any more and may not have more years left to live. Ultimately they are the ones most at risk from covid 19. We need to protect life but not at the cost of the entire economy.
Most people of working age need to accept that there will be some risk and get back to work. The economy, and by implication the public services it supports, needs us all to do our duty.
My circle of 60+ people is in a different place - we'd like to socialise (and see family) but are willing to wait a year ro 18 months if necessary. But the difference may be that my contacts are nearly all office workers or MPs or councillors, and we're all working normally from home and interacting lots on screen - I've never been busier and there are people in touch who I've not heard from for years.
Which is fine, but it's all a bit irrelevant for people working in outside jobs, which is where the real problems are. Whether oldies are like your circle or mine doesn't really matter - we've got choices, outside workers don't.
Sixteen actually.....and with a bit of luck, today will be 17. And the politicians are on record that the quarantine will be the last restriction to be lifted.
Imagine a part of Britain having the temerity of having a different policy from that imposed by the English government. Where are the Tory fanboys/girls and why are they not wailing and gnashing their teeth.
Guernsey is not part of the UK and pays for itself.
And I've been critical of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland, NI - all four, not just one on Care Homes) and arrival quarantine (UK) for weeks.
The problem for all four is that each and every one of them has acted the same on care homes and no doubt that is from their participation in Cobra and the decisions
It looks to me as if the advice in february should have been changed in early march and that change came late and caused the nightmare that followed.
Also care homes has been a failure across most countries who seem to have acted in a similar manner
I expect the public enquiry that is coming will have some damning comments to make on the process and the lack of attention to 'time of essence'
Care homes has been a disaster in Guernsey (and the Isle of Man - over 80% from one care home alone) too. This thing find's society's weakest link and goes for it. Care homes in Britain, foreign worker dormitories in Singapore, gays in Korea....
That's exactly what the local state school I know of are setting up, practicing and generally working on at the moment.
It is also what has been done in other countries, I believe.
Completely unworkable for a large number of schools unless you take only half the pupils back.
Serious question. Could you not have half in in the morning and half in the afternoon, extending the school day a bit if necessary? Surely that would be better than nothing
Good luck negotiating overtime rates for "extending the school day a bit" but of course you would also lose much of the childminding function of schools, allowing mum and dad to put in a full shift at the salt mines while junior learns Latin and paints NHS rainbows.
Teachers are already paid well for working a half day as it is, 20 weeks vacation etc , why would they need overtime.
Love it when Malc gives vent to his inner Tory.
Personally I prefer the anti-Tory rants. It's like watching Liberace suing people for saying he wasn't a "family man"....
To be fair to malcolm, he’s always been clear about his conservative instincts. He is, though, also a passionate nationalist - and also sensibly unimpressed by the quality of the current administration.
Yeah, well, Sturgeon's done a bit of a rubbish job of not being in government. Fell at the first hurdle I believe.
Sorry, I thought the respondents were from the UK as a whole, not just Scotland. My mistake
Are you saying Sturgeon being 'in government' and FM is not the reason most non Scots would have formed an opinion of her?
Yes, definitely
Why do you think Farage and Davey have improved in terms of net leadership ratings?
If Sturgeon wasn't FM or head of the Scottish government, most non Scots wouldn't have heard of her let alone formed an opinion. I know you'd prefer not to think of improved ratings for Starmer and Sturgeon as being down to being seen as providing effective opposition and government (with related failure for BJ), but if you want to hang your hat on moe changes for Farage and Davey please carry on.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
This schools row is sadly predictable - public servants are always a target for Tories at one time of another. Thing is that both sides are right. You cannot run a school under social distancing rules, and asking teachers to be "heroes" is absurd. Whats more it doesn't matter what the government says will/should happen, people aren't listening. They aren't going to send their kids to schools where the "hero" teachers are taking a risk in having all these kids mixing. Blame the feckless teachers now, it'll be the feckless parents next month.
However, we can't sit here forever in our bunkers. The argument now is about sending the schools back in a few weeks. What about in August/September - will the need for impossible social distancing have gone by then? If not then a deferred problem remains a problem. We may not have a fix by then. But we definitely don't right now. My kids have been off school a few months. What difference does another few months make?
They're off again from the 15th July to September anyway.. People have sniffed out this is far more about the economy than education. Schools should be back when we have track and trace up and running, and not before.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
How is Necker Island doing? About as relevant as any kind of comparison.
Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:
Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.
You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.
Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.
Crisp tax anyone?
I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.
Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.
A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
Going to the gym is also deeply boring, and a waste of money, when it’s far nicer to exercise outdoors. One of the few good things to emerge from this is people exploring their local areas, by bike or foot. I spoke to lady in Wanstead the other day who had lived there for years, and didn’t know it bordered Epping Forest until now.
Boxing training is fun, varied and very good for fitness
Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:
Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.
You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.
Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.
Crisp tax anyone?
I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.
Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.
A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
Going to the gym is also deeply boring, and a waste of money, when it’s far nicer to exercise outdoors. One of the few good things to emerge from this is people exploring their local areas, by bike or foot. I spoke to lady in Wanstead the other day who had lived there for years, and didn’t know it bordered Epping Forest until now.
Lol! Parts of Epping Forest are in fact to be found in Wansted - Bush Wood and the little copse off the High Street for example.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
The anonymous quote in that piece that should worry Downing Street more is this one:
“Do you know how many people have died in Hong Kong? Four! Just four!” exclaims one senior Tory. “People are waking up to the fact that Britain has done really woefully.”
If that's obvious even to senior Tories, the inquest will be excruciating for some.
Yeah, well, Sturgeon's done a bit of a rubbish job of not being in government. Fell at the first hurdle I believe.
Sorry, I thought the respondents were from the UK as a whole, not just Scotland. My mistake
Are you saying Sturgeon being 'in government' and FM is not the reason most non Scots would have formed an opinion of her?
Yes, definitely
Why do you think Farage and Davey have improved in terms of net leadership ratings?
If Sturgeon wasn't FM or head of the Scottish government, most non Scots wouldn't have heard of her let alone formed an opinion. I know you'd prefer not to think of improved ratings for Starmer and Sturgeon as being down to being seen as providing effective opposition and government (with related failure for BJ), but if you want to hang your hat on moe changes for Farage and Davey please carry on.
Why would I prefer not to think of Sturgeon doing well? It wouldn't bother me if Scotland became independent, good luck to her. But what is she doing different to Boris anyway? The most notable thing that's happened in Scotland is her CMO getting caught breaking the lockdown rules
But yes, it's my opinion that the government at a time of such crisis, and people getting bored of lockdown, means you're a better player being on the bench in football terms, and that's why Boris ratings are down and everyone elses are up
Thanks Dr Foxy. Thought-provoking. Must be challenging working in any aspect of the NHS now.
I am led to believe, from contacts I still have in NHS management, that second wave of viral infection. is expected in September. Elective surgery waits may well be pushed back beyond pre 2000 levels.
I was only periphally involved with Covid-19 patients, keeping skeleton services going for other conditions during the peak. I did a lot of updates in case of call up for redeployment, but thankfully it didn't get quite that bad. Busy now trying to reconstruct services, hence the thoughts that led to this header.
I think it right to plan for a second wave, so we can implement the lessons from the first, but my own hunch is that it will be a single peak with a long fat tail.
Is it possible that a not insignificant proportion of the population start with some sort of natural immunity? It would explain the disconnect between apparently low infection rates and the pattern of dropping off of new case numbers, which is directing some experts towards theories of widespread infection that aren't backed by any actual test studies.
Possibly, but I am conflicted on this as we do see incidents such as the Diamond Princess or the Korean Church where infection rates are quite high.
We remain in the dark concerning where spread is really occurring, what is safe and what is not. I suspect half or more of our social distancing measures are pointless, the problem is that we do not know which half.
That's exactly what the local state school I know of are setting up, practicing and generally working on at the moment.
It is also what has been done in other countries, I believe.
Completely unworkable for a large number of schools unless you take only half the pupils back.
Serious question. Could you not have half in in the morning and half in the afternoon, extending the school day a bit if necessary? Surely that would be better than nothing
Good luck negotiating overtime rates for "extending the school day a bit" but of course you would also lose much of the childminding function of schools, allowing mum and dad to put in a full shift at the salt mines while junior learns Latin and paints NHS rainbows.
Teachers are already paid well for working a half day as it is, 20 weeks vacation etc , why would they need overtime.
Love it when Malc gives vent to his inner Tory.
Personally I prefer the anti-Tory rants. It's like watching Liberace suing people for saying he wasn't a "family man"....
To be fair to malcolm, he’s always been clear about his conservative instincts. He is, though, also a passionate nationalist - and also sensibly unimpressed by the quality of the current administration.
Normal Sundays have open shops, open pubs, open restaurants and sport.
People wandering about in the open air take a smaller risk than if crammed together indoors for hours on end. There is much less social compression in urban parks with acres of grass, or on public beaches with acres of sand. Footpaths in the countryside are often quite narrow and tricky to negotiate with distancing. But if you chose to walk along a path and meet someone coming the other way, you are both knowingly taking the same risk. A feint smile, a brief hello and on your way asap is the correct procedure. Don't take time to pat their dog.
Yes, although there is an abundance of good walks around here in the Cotswolds, some of the paths are rather narrow and there is some awkwardness at the bottlenecks. On the whole though good sense and manners prevail and few unnecessary risks are taken.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I fail to see why you have any issue when you know the process is not complete. No business hires people before they get applications and do interviews, do you think they can just go onto the streets and grab people. What part of in process can you not grasp.We are in lockdown in Scotland for a good bit yet so better to take time and hire properly than just taking any old person. They do not need them at this point.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
How is Necker Island doing? About as relevant as any kind of comparison.
AIUI the States of Alderney hasn't had any cases at all. Virtually everyone who goes there goes by air and it's straight into quarantine. Pity, 'cos it's really nice in Spring.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
The anonymous quote in that piece that should worry Downing Street more is this one:
“Do you know how many people have died in Hong Kong? Four! Just four!” exclaims one senior Tory. “People are waking up to the fact that Britain has done really woefully.”
If that's obvious even to senior Tories, the inquest will be excruciating for some.
It was more important for Britain to be 'open for business'.
When we see leaks about which cabinet ministers opposed restriction on entry then Conservative infighting will have passed a key point.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Indeed, it indubitably proves that gannet shite is an excellent specific against the Covid plague.
More seriously, belated thanks to Dr Foxy for his most interesting piece.
I see Andrew Rawnsley has a 'senior Tory' briefing against Boris. I wonder who it is. IDS?
Last week the Labour leader skewered the prime minister on the grim death toll in care homes. “It didn’t take the brains of an archbishop to work out that he would go on care homes,” remarks one senior Tory with personal experience of doing PMQs. “Why wasn’t Boris properly prepared for that?”
The anonymous quote in that piece that should worry Downing Street more is this one:
“Do you know how many people have died in Hong Kong? Four! Just four!” exclaims one senior Tory. “People are waking up to the fact that Britain has done really woefully.”
If that's obvious even to senior Tories, the inquest will be excruciating for some.
I really dont understand why we expect the disease to treat all places similarly and decide differences are based on politicians.
The biggest indicators of the disease being deadly imo are a combination of:
1) seasonal problems of flu/colds with high peaks as opposed to lower levels thru the year (yes of course I know its not flu, but coughs are probably the main way it spreads). 2) population density (at the micro level, especially how little space is there in urban areas) 3) population connectivity (how many people travel both in the city and between that city and other big places)
Author Neil Gaiman has admitted breaking Scotland's lockdown rules by travelling 12,000 miles (19,000km) from New Zealand to his holiday home on Skye.
The Good Omens and American Gods writer said he left his wife and four-year-old son in Auckland so he could "isolate" at his Scottish island retreat.
He wrote on his blog that until two weeks ago he had been living in New Zealand with his family but the couple agreed "that we needed to give each other some space".
O/t, but a matterof great concern to all long-standing Pb-ers,...... our new friend will soon learn ...... a pub not too far away from me is offering a special takeaway pizza: goats cheese, onion, walnuts, beetroot & honey.
Author Neil Gaiman has admitted breaking Scotland's lockdown rules by travelling 12,000 miles (19,000km) from New Zealand to his holiday home on Skye.
The Good Omens and American Gods writer said he left his wife and four-year-old son in Auckland so he could "isolate" at his Scottish island retreat.
He wrote on his blog that until two weeks ago he had been living in New Zealand with his family but the couple agreed "that we needed to give each other some space".
1 - From your figure of 100 cases per million continuing, that looks as though in theory it could be hived off into the Field Hospitals entirely - to allow NHS recovery.
2 - I've had three appts turned into Dr reviews or phone calls in the last month, but my bone marrow biopsy is now next week. So here it seems to be continuing. I get the impression that the D-team have more spare time than usual away from appointments, but that that will ramp back up pdq. My insulin pump has been delayed by a couple of months, but that is staff retirement / replacement.
Decisions have generally been quicker. Very modern hospital but PFI, with lots of single rooms.
3 - I wonder if a heavier use of remote medicine will ultimately boost capacity?
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
We are in lockdown in Scotland for a good bit yet
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that Holyrood could announce measures to ease the Covid-19 lockdown in Scotland next week.
I did think the mask wearing of subs and all no shaking hands or celebrating together was a bit of a nonsense when a) they have all been tested and b) at corners we had players screaming "go f##k your grandmother" right in the face of the opposition.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
Interesting comparison with Ireland - is the lower infection/higher fatality rate in Scotland a function of lower testing? In other words infections in Scotland understated and fatality rate overstated?
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I can also confirm the Flannan Isles have successfully kept below target.
O/t, but a matterof great concern to all long-standing Pb-ers,...... our new friend will soon learn ...... a pub not too far away from me is offering a special takeaway pizza: goats cheese, onion, walnuts, beetroot & honey.
No, not tried it.
PIZZA express used to do a walnut pizza called Noci, I think. It was rather good.
Not so sure about the Beetroot, but have often had it in hamburgers in Australia.
Order a "Hamburger with the Lot" in an Australian Milk Bar and you get both pineapple and Beetroot on it, and more.
One of the most interesting things on the Tabby website itself is how the excess deaths in Scotland (i.e. over the average fogure for time of year) are very close to the reported Covid deaths - there is not the considerable margin between the two reported in England, of which my eyeball estimate is about a quarter or a third.
Something is different between the two countries. Different recording? And as one can hardly hide total deaths ...
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
I've been advocating it for weeks. Although it should be a UK external border.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I can also confirm the Flannan Isles have successfully kept below target.
Mind, we don't know what the lighthousemen actually died of ...
O/t, but a matterof great concern to all long-standing Pb-ers,...... our new friend will soon learn ...... a pub not too far away from me is offering a special takeaway pizza: goats cheese, onion, walnuts, beetroot & honey.
No, not tried it.
PIZZA express used to do a walnut pizza called Noci, I think. It was rather good.
Not so sure about the Beetroot, but have often had it in hamburgers in Australia.
Order a "Hamburger with the Lot" in an Australian Milk Bar and you get both pineapple and Beetroot on it, and more.
Used to have beetroot and cheese sandwiches as a child. It eked out the (rationed) cheese, and improved the flavour. Wartime & just post-war cheese, AKA 'mousetrap' wasn't very tasty.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I can also confirm the Flannan Isles have successfully kept below target.
Mind, we don't know what the lighthousemen actually died of ...
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I can also confirm the Flannan Isles have successfully kept below target.
Mind, we don't know what the lighthousemen actually died of ...
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
I've been advocating it for weeks. Although it should be a UK external border.
Fair enough to the first point, and on the second, if your lot wouldn't allow the Scottish Gmt proper powers, then they can **** well take the blame.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
I've been advocating it for weeks. Although it should be a UK external border.
Fair enough to the first point, and on the second, if your lot wouldn't allow the Scottish Gmt proper powers, then they can **** well take the blame.
It would be an interesting question - I *think* Holyrood would have the power to shut airports in Scotland on health grounds. Likewise ferries.
Under the lockdown rules you could stop people driving into Scotland.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.
I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
I can also confirm the Flannan Isles have successfully kept below target.
Mind, we don't know what the lighthousemen actually died of ...
It was 120 years ago. It was not coronavirus.
Hmmm... no testing.....
Different diagnostical categories as well. They'd probably call it galloping consumption or the grippe or something.
1 - From your figure of 100 cases per million continuing, that looks as though in theory it could be hived off into the Field Hospitals entirely - to allow NHS recovery.
2 - I've had three appts turned into Dr reviews or phone calls in the last month, but my bone marrow biopsy is now next week. So here it seems to be continuing. I get the impression that the D-team have more spare time than usual away from appointments, but that that will ramp back up pdq. My insulin pump has been delayed by a couple of months, but that is staff retirement / replacement.
Decisions have generally been quicker. Very modern hospital but PFI, with lots of single rooms.
3 - I wonder if a heavier use of remote medicine will ultimately boost capacity?
Yes, the combination of top down command and control, and the simple necessity of shielding high risk patients has led to a lot of remote medicine, and I am sure much will remain long term. Some evaluation of outcomes and safety would be reassuring.
My figure of 100 Covid-19 inpatients per million inpatients is a guess based upon a slight uptick with relaxation. That would imply a daily mortality rate of something like 50-100 over the UK.
No one really knows. The whole disease could burn out by July, or we could be having a second summer peak.
Comments
Anyway £750m is not even a drop in the ocean in forex markets.
I think they've all done a sterling job of not being in Government while a pandemic wipes out tens of thousands of people
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1261751654208229376?s=20
To me, this says End Of Lockdown.
'Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u
Stopped clock notwithstanding.
To me, this says End Of Lockdown.
Nice and woolly so that when the numbers rocket they can blame it on the great unwashed and claim they did not follow the great 5 level plan and did not start at the correct 3.5 starting point
(i) I do loads of press ups. (ii) I pee less because I know I have to do 10 press ups every time (which I hate doing).
Upshot? Amazing biceps. Disciplined bladder. It's the very essence of win win.
Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1261945101263265797?s=20
Why do you think Farage and Davey have improved in terms of net leadership ratings?
IDS probably believes he can have another tilt at leader after the tories realise Johnson has outlived his utility and render him down for tallow.
However, we can't sit here forever in our bunkers. The argument now is about sending the schools back in a few weeks. What about in August/September - will the need for impossible social distancing have gone by then? If not then a deferred problem remains a problem. We may not have a fix by then. But we definitely don't right now. My kids have been off school a few months. What difference does another few months make?
Which is fine, but it's all a bit irrelevant for people working in outside jobs, which is where the real problems are. Whether oldies are like your circle or mine doesn't really matter - we've got choices, outside workers don't.
Weekend effect - but still very good compared to previous...
He is, though, also a passionate nationalist - and also sensibly unimpressed by the quality of the current administration.
Schools should be back when we have track and trace up and running, and not before.
“Do you know how many people have died in Hong Kong? Four! Just four!” exclaims one senior Tory. “People are waking up to the fact that Britain has done really woefully.”
If that's obvious even to senior Tories, the inquest will be excruciating for some.
But yes, it's my opinion that the government at a time of such crisis, and people getting bored of lockdown, means you're a better player being on the bench in football terms, and that's why Boris ratings are down and everyone elses are up
Will be interesting to see what they do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRvRJvOpqQk
Pity, 'cos it's really nice in Spring.
I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.
When we see leaks about which cabinet ministers opposed restriction on entry then Conservative infighting will have passed a key point.
More seriously, belated thanks to Dr Foxy for his most interesting piece.
The biggest indicators of the disease being deadly imo are a combination of:
1) seasonal problems of flu/colds with high peaks as opposed to lower levels thru the year (yes of course I know its not flu, but coughs are probably the main way it spreads).
2) population density (at the micro level, especially how little space is there in urban areas)
3) population connectivity (how many people travel both in the city and between that city and other big places)
HK has the latter two but not the first.
The Good Omens and American Gods writer said he left his wife and four-year-old son in Auckland so he could "isolate" at his Scottish island retreat.
He wrote on his blog that until two weeks ago he had been living in New Zealand with his family but the couple agreed "that we needed to give each other some space".
No, not tried it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52678750
My comments:
1 - From your figure of 100 cases per million continuing, that looks as though in theory it could be hived off into the Field Hospitals entirely - to allow NHS recovery.
2 - I've had three appts turned into Dr reviews or phone calls in the last month, but my bone marrow biopsy is now next week. So here it seems to be continuing. I get the impression that the D-team have more spare time than usual away from appointments, but that that will ramp back up pdq. My insulin pump has been delayed by a couple of months, but that is staff retirement / replacement.
Decisions have generally been quicker. Very modern hospital but PFI, with lots of single rooms.
3 - I wonder if a heavier use of remote medicine will ultimately boost capacity?
Big drop in deaths from the thursday and friday. Finally caught up with the historical deaths?
https://www.theparliamentaryreview.co.uk/news/sturgeon-hints-at-easing-covid-19-lockdown-in-scotland
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52696930
I did think the mask wearing of subs and all no shaking hands or celebrating together was a bit of a nonsense when a) they have all been tested and b) at corners we had players screaming "go f##k your grandmother" right in the face of the opposition.
Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-682-new-cases-including-4-singaporeans-and-prs
https://twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1262012610679132161?s=20
Interesting comparison with Ireland - is the lower infection/higher fatality rate in Scotland a function of lower testing? In other words infections in Scotland understated and fatality rate overstated?
Not so sure about the Beetroot, but have often had it in hamburgers in Australia.
Order a "Hamburger with the Lot" in an Australian Milk Bar and you get both pineapple and Beetroot on it, and more.
https://thingsaussieslike.wordpress.com/2011/12/27/no-12-hamburger-with-the-lot/
Something is different between the two countries. Different recording? And as one can hardly hide total deaths ...
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker (bottom left, weekly so no weekend effect to speak of)
The Times got it wrong.
They have shops not newspapers.
Under the lockdown rules you could stop people driving into Scotland.
What does that leave?
Was this really a good time for the Sunday Times to publish their Rich List?
My figure of 100 Covid-19 inpatients per million inpatients is a guess based upon a slight uptick with relaxation. That would imply a daily mortality rate of something like 50-100 over the UK.
No one really knows. The whole disease could burn out by July, or we could be having a second summer peak.