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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The BBC have finally flipped their lids. QT in Joburg! I can hear the sound of thousands of TV sets being switched off in Britain. So ends a week of Mandela mongering; with a cruel pantomime of the BBC's own making.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited December 2013

    SNP Gauleiter

    Hmm.


    I blame Alex Salmond for reminding me of that word.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/opinion/salmonds-gauleiter-slur-creates-row-too-silly-for-words.16713320

    Re, your other point, I agree.

    And Damn you, your multi-quote reply is confusing me and making it hard to reply to it.
    I dare say Eck was a little de-sensitized to such language after being continually referred to by his opponents as a Nazi, Fascist, Mussolini, North Korean Dictator, Genralissimo etc, etc. Certainly an unwise choice of words, but I don't think he's ever been noted for his Christian meekness.
    If only he was like a North Korean Dictator, it might enliven the Indy Ref.

    North Korean leader's uncle 'executed over corruption'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

    I suspect and fear, there's going to be hyperbole on both sides of the indy campaign next year.

    But you're right, about his lack of meekness, that's one of the big issues of the campaign where the No side will struggle.

    Who have they got who can combat that, Salmond can dish it out, without coming across as nasty, is a rare talent in politics, one that only Blair, Boris and Ken Clarke possess.

    Something I don't think Darling has.

    Maybe John Reid?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Dan Hodges talking complete, utter sense about MPs' pay tonight: Clickety click

    They commissioned an independent review. Now accept what the review says, you cowards. Pfft.

    £74k a year is eminently sensible. All leaders know that.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Where are the results ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP almost winning a seat in the Beaconsfield area is a pretty respectable performance.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    QT... What a joke... Can barely understand a word.... Reminds me of a cab journey home from the west end a decade ago where the driver was insisting Nwankwo Kanu was about 38
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    South Bucks - Iver Village & Richings Park

    Con 422 UKIP 377 LD 101

    Warwickshire - Bedworth West

    Lab 904 Con 353 UKIP 142 TUSC 46




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    @AndyJS

    I've a reselection for you: Boy Sarwar tonight in Glasgow Central
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408
    edited December 2013


    If only he was like a North Korean Dictator, it might enliven the Indy Ref.

    North Korean leader's uncle 'executed over corruption'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

    I suspect and fear, there's going to be hyperbole on both sides of the indy campaign next year.

    But you're right, about his lack of meekness, that's one of the big issues of the campaign where the No side will struggle.

    Who have they got who can combat that, Salmond can dish it out, without coming across as nasty, is a rare talent in politics, one that only Blair, Boris and Ken Clarke possess.

    Something I don't think Darling has.

    Maybe John Reid?


    Reid has too much baggage - Iraq, Afghanistan, Blairite, possibly even his Celtic connections. I actually think what BT needs is not more aggression, but a bit of wit, charm and gut belief in the Union. Charlie Kennedy would be ideal, apart from his personal problems, being a Scottish LD and possibly not having the gut belief. Okay, maybe not so ideal.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Of course South Africa is still miles ahead of every other African country, in that ordinary people are prepared to go on television and criticise their leaders.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    @AndyJS

    I've a reselection for you: Boy Sarwar tonight in Glasgow Central

    Thanks, he's the 4th youngest MP I think.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited December 2013
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost winning a seat in the Beaconsfield area is a pretty respectable performance.

    I'm watching it. It's fascinating.

    Britain's history is intertwined with South Africa's. It's right for the BBC to do this.

    Edit: Whoops, quoted wrong post! Newbie error....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    Conor Burns reselected for the Tories in Bournemouth West:

    twitter.com/Conor_BurnsMP/status/411234747760009218
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Not entirely true, there are several countries where there have been longstanding democracies, such as Botswana, as well as rampant despotism elsewhere.

    I am quite interested in Africa, so have found QT quite interesting tonight.

    AndyJS said:

    Of course South Africa is still miles ahead of every other African country, in that ordinary people are prepared to go on television and criticise their leaders.

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    If only he was like a North Korean Dictator, it might enliven the Indy Ref.

    North Korean leader's uncle 'executed over corruption'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

    I suspect and fear, there's going to be hyperbole on both sides of the indy campaign next year.

    But you're right, about his lack of meekness, that's one of the big issues of the campaign where the No side will struggle.

    Who have they got who can combat that, Salmond can dish it out, without coming across as nasty, is a rare talent in politics, one that only Blair, Boris and Ken Clarke possess.

    Something I don't think Darling has.

    Maybe John Reid?


    Reid has too much baggage - Iraq, Afghanistan, Blairite, possibly even his Celtic connections. I actually think what BT needs is not more aggression, but a bit of wit, charm and gut belief in the Union. Charlie Kennedy would be ideal, apart from his personal problems, being a Scottish LD and possibly not having the gut belief. Okay, maybe not so ideal.
    How about Iain Gray?

    ::Innocent Face::

    Sorry if that damages your sides.

    But I wonder if No will struggle. They only have Darling to combat Salmond and Sturgeon.

    Having seen her take on Lord Kill Nationalism Stone Dead Robertson recently, No have to find some quality.

    Darling can't do it alone.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost winning a seat in the Beaconsfield area is a pretty respectable performance.

    I'm watching it. It's fascinating.

    Britain's history is intertwined with South Africa's. It's right for the BBC to do this.

    Edit: Whoops, quoted wrong post! Newbie error....

    To be fair I was just kidding, it was interesting... much livelier and less formulaic than usual


    Didn't think Botha was gonna make it through the show
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP almost winning a seat in the Beaconsfield area is a pretty respectable performance.

    I'm watching it. It's fascinating.

    Britain's history is intertwined with South Africa's. It's right for the BBC to do this.

    Edit: Whoops, quoted wrong post! Newbie error....
    Welcome to the site, from me anyway.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118


    If only he was like a North Korean Dictator, it might enliven the Indy Ref.

    North Korean leader's uncle 'executed over corruption'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

    I suspect and fear, there's going to be hyperbole on both sides of the indy campaign next year.

    But you're right, about his lack of meekness, that's one of the big issues of the campaign where the No side will struggle.

    Who have they got who can combat that, Salmond can dish it out, without coming across as nasty, is a rare talent in politics, one that only Blair, Boris and Ken Clarke possess.

    Something I don't think Darling has.

    Maybe John Reid?


    Reid has too much baggage - Iraq, Afghanistan, Blairite, possibly even his Celtic connections. I actually think what BT needs is not more aggression, but a bit of wit, charm and gut belief in the Union. Charlie Kennedy would be ideal, apart from his personal problems, being a Scottish LD and possibly not having the gut belief. Okay, maybe not so ideal.
    George Galloway?

    He was great on the QT special
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    But I wonder if No will struggle. They only have Darling to combat Salmond and Sturgeon.

    Even more innocent face.
    You unaccountably forget the colossus that is Carmichael.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jacqueline Gold has been chief executive of Ann Summers since 1987. Impressive.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacqueline_Gold
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    But I wonder if No will struggle. They only have Darling to combat Salmond and Sturgeon.

    Even more innocent face.
    You unaccountably forget the colossus that is Carmichael.
    I blame that on the fact I'm excited that I'm seeing The Desolation of Smaug in about 12 hrs time.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Jacqueline Gold has been chief executive of Ann Summers since 1987. Impressive.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacqueline_Gold

    Her dads the guvnor?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    Jacqueline Gold has been chief executive of Ann Summers since 1987. Impressive.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacqueline_Gold

    A private company controlled by her family.

    This is why as Chief Executive she talks, with a total lack of self-awareness, about appointing "her" board.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408
    edited December 2013
    isam said:


    If only he was like a North Korean Dictator, it might enliven the Indy Ref.

    North Korean leader's uncle 'executed over corruption'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

    I suspect and fear, there's going to be hyperbole on both sides of the indy campaign next year.

    But you're right, about his lack of meekness, that's one of the big issues of the campaign where the No side will struggle.

    Who have they got who can combat that, Salmond can dish it out, without coming across as nasty, is a rare talent in politics, one that only Blair, Boris and Ken Clarke possess.

    Something I don't think Darling has.

    Maybe John Reid?


    Reid has too much baggage - Iraq, Afghanistan, Blairite, possibly even his Celtic connections. I actually think what BT needs is not more aggression, but a bit of wit, charm and gut belief in the Union. Charlie Kennedy would be ideal, apart from his personal problems, being a Scottish LD and possibly not having the gut belief. Okay, maybe not so ideal.
    George Galloway?

    He was great on the QT special
    I don't think the main Unionist parties could find barge poles long enough. Besides GG thrives on being the maverick, sitting at the front of a multi party campaign takes a lot of conciliating and zipping of lips.

    'You're both cheeks of the same @rse, but on this occasion I'm going to nestle helpfully between you.'
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I am still here, and it was fun to see that BBC QuestionTime popped up to Falkirk just recently to do their latest Scottish edition. I cannot possible imagine what suddenly made them decide to pick this wee Scottish town as a venue, but the audience certainly showed its cynicism at the Labour/Unite shannigans at a local level there.
    surbiton said:

    I ma missing Falkirk ! Where are Carlotta and Fitalass ?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Quinnipiac 2016 GOP nomination
    •Chris Christie 17% [13%] (14%)
    •Rand Paul 14% [17%] (15%)
    •Ted Cruz 13% [10%]
    •Jeb Bush 11% [11%] (10%)
    •Paul Ryan 9% [10%] (17%)
    •Marco Rubio 7% [12%] (19%)
    •Scott Walker 5% [4%] (2%)
    •Bobby Jindal 3% [3%] (3%)
    •John Kasich 2%
    •Don’t know 17% [19%] (18%)

    Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic nomination
    •Hillary Clinton 66% [61%] (65%)
    •Joe Biden 8% [11%] (13%)
    •Elizabeth Warren 7% [7%]
    •Andrew Cuomo 3% [2%] (4%)
    •Howard Dean 1%
    •Brian Schweitzer 1%
    •Martin O’Malley 0% [0%] (1%)
    •Don’t know 12% [15%] (14%)

    Quinnipiac 2016 national general election
    •Chris Christie (R) 42% {43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%]

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
    •Rand Paul (R) 41% {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
    •Jeb Bush (R) 39% {40%}

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {51%} [54%]
    •Ted Cruz (R) 37% {36%} [31%]
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    PPP Michigan 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [44%]
    •Chris Christie (R) 40% [38%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [51%]
    •Jeb Bush (R) 42% [37%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [55%]
    •Rand Paul (R) 39% [35%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    •Ted Cruz (R) 38%
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    fitalass said:

    I am still here, and it was fun to see that BBC QuestionTime popped up to Falkirk just recently to do their latest Scottish edition. I cannot possible imagine what suddenly made them decide to pick this wee Scottish town as a venue, but the audience certainly showed its cynicism at the Labour/Unite shannigans at a local level there.

    surbiton said:

    I ma missing Falkirk ! Where are Carlotta and Fitalass ?

    Merry Christmas, Fitalass. To you and your family.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    PPP 206 North Carolina GOP primary

    •Chris Christie 19% [20%] (10%)
    •Jeb Bush 15% [16%] (9%)
    •Rand Paul 13% [12%] (6%)
    •Ted Cruz 12% [12%]
    •Marco Rubio 10% [10%] (21%)
    •Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (12%)
    •Scott Walker 5% [1%]
    •Rick Santorum 5% [2%] (5%)
    •Bobby Jindal 3% [6%]
    •Someone else/Not sure 11% [13%] (8%)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Australian High Court overthrows ACT gay marriage law, saying it requires Federal Law
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-12/high-court-decision-on-act-same-sex-marriage-laws/5152168
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    South Bucks - Iver Village & Richings Park

    Con 422 UKIP 377 LD 101

    Warwickshire - Bedworth West

    Lab 904 Con 353 UKIP 142 TUSC 46

    Lib Dem meltdown !
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I saw a pic of Sarkozy sat next to Hollande at the Mandela memorial tucked away amongst the hype of the Danish PM doing a selfie with Obama and Cameron. Lets face it, if Sarkozy throws himself back into front line French politics its going to be a fun spectacle to watch, especially among the leading ladies. :)
    SeanT said:

    Times paywall fact: if asked to choose, 46 percent of French voters want Sarkozy as president, once more, against 27 percent who prefer to keep Hollande.



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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Good to see Kim Jong-Un getting into the Christmas spirit thinking of family by having his own uncle executed for being 'worse than a dog'
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    surbiton said:

    South Bucks - Iver Village & Richings Park

    Con 422 UKIP 377 LD 101

    Warwickshire - Bedworth West

    Lab 904 Con 353 UKIP 142 TUSC 46

    Lib Dem meltdown !
    Bit of a bummer for the Cleggs.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Fitalass SeanT Sarkozy would almost certainly win a straight rematch, but with Fillon splitting the vote of the centre-right in the first round, Hollande could win by default against Marine Le Pen in round 2
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited December 2013
    And a Merry Christmas to you Surbiton, and your family as well. I had a bit of a hiccup with remembering to order the Kerry Bronze Turkey this year, I forgot. So we are now stuck with a 8kg one! We are cooking for a big family gathering on Christmas day (combined effort), but still, lets just say that my best friend has just given me a Top 10 list of fun recipes with Turkey. Lets hope the electricity stays on this Christmas the minute the ovens get fired up for Christmas dinner in Aberdeenshire, we had our Christmas dinner on boxing day last year as a result of a lengthy outage. I know some lucky folk were able to use their caravan, and others even lit the barbecue to try to get their birds cooked in our village last year! :)
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    I am still here, and it was fun to see that BBC QuestionTime popped up to Falkirk just recently to do their latest Scottish edition. I cannot possible imagine what suddenly made them decide to pick this wee Scottish town as a venue, but the audience certainly showed its cynicism at the Labour/Unite shannigans at a local level there.

    surbiton said:

    I ma missing Falkirk ! Where are Carlotta and Fitalass ?

    Merry Christmas, Fitalass. To you and your family.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SeanT said:

    Times paywall fact: if asked to choose, 46 percent of French voters want Sarkozy as president, once more, against 27 percent who prefer to keep Hollande.

    Ed Miliband, that's your friend, that is.

    How did Marine Le Pen fare?

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    A very tough call considering how some Nats have questioned and called their fellow Scots loyalty and allegiance to the their Scottish identity into question for having the temerity to view themselves as both as Scottish and British in a positive way during the Indy debate.
    I am very comfortable a Highlander first, Scottish second and British third, and totally comfortable with Parliaments in Edinburgh and Westminster as a result. Between voting for my locals, Holyrood, Westminster and the EU, I am awash with democracy at every single level of Government and get to cast a vote almost every year as a result. Why would I want to give up that level of democracy?
    SeanT said:

    YouGov:

    "We are interested to know how people living in Scotland see themselves in terms of their nationality. Which of the statements best describes how you regard yourself?"

    Scottish, not British 27%
    More Scottish than British 27%
    Equally Scottish and British 27%
    More British than Scottish 4%
    British, not Scottish 10%
    other 4%
    DK2%

    Sorry Stuart, but that's not a winning position. You have 27%, plus maybe a few percent from the "more Scottish than British" sector.

    Which closely mirrors the polling 30-35% Yes.

    You need to convince 20% of Scots to relinquish their primary or secondary sense of Britishnesss. Tough call.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I know that is the settled view of some on here, but just look at Hollande's personal ratings. It reminds me a bit of the Labour party over here, they couldn't get rid of Blair fast enough, and then they got Brown in his place.....
    HYUFD said:

    Fitalass SeanT Sarkozy would almost certainly win a straight rematch, but with Fillon splitting the vote of the centre-right in the first round, Hollande could win by default against Marine Le Pen in round 2

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I guess three days of 37 degrees wasn't exactly what England were hoping for in Perth:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2063523
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    HYUFD said:

    Good to see Kim Jong-Un getting into the Christmas spirit thinking of family by having his own uncle executed for being 'worse than a dog'

    not big on self awareness, the Kim family.

    think worst Xmas spirit ever may have been executing Ceaucescu on 25th dec '89. Surely they could have at least waited till boxing day.


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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    edited December 2013
    Fitalass But the French system is a 2 round contest, Chirac won 80% of the vote in 2002 against Le Pen Senior despite low approval ratings because the left vote was split. The right vote is likely to be even more split in 2017 because Fillon, Sarkozy's PM, has vowed to run as an independent and with Marine polling strongly and Bayrou running as a nominal centre/centre right figure all Hollande has to do is scrape through the first round ahead of a split right and face Le Pen in round 2 who will probably have topped round 1!

    dugarbandier I suppose that was a Christmas present for Romanians who had endured his rule, a similar fate may eventually fall the Kims!
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    With the French economy and Hollande's personal ratings going in the same direction, down the toilet fast, it makes for some exceptional circumstances in French politics. I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.
    HYUFD said:

    Fitalass But the French system is a 2 round contest, Chirac won 80% of the vote in 2002 against Le Pen Senior despite low approval ratings because the left vote was split. The right vote is likely to be even more split in 2017 because Fillon, Sarkozy's PM, has vowed to run as an independent and with Marine polling strongly and Bayrou running as a nominal centre/centre right figure all Hollande has to do is scrape through the first round ahead of a split right and face Le Pen in round 2 who will probably have topped round 1!

    dugarbandier I suppose that was a Christmas present for Romanians who had endured his rule, a similar fate may eventually fall the Kims!

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @MSmithsonPB now has exactly 11,000 followers on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    edited December 2013
    Fitalass I would not rule anything out, but Sarkozy is no shoo-in, in 4 years time the economy may well have recovered a bit, the centre-right is hopelessly split and it is Le Pen and FN who are really making the big gains, and French presidents, like American presidents, are more often than not re-elected, especially after only 1 term of their party in the office. Night!
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited December 2013
    Totally agree with you, but I am just saying that he shouldn't be automatically ruled out completely considering the current political and economic turmoil afflicting France right now.
    HYUFD said:

    Fitalass I would not rule anything out, but Sarkozy is no shoo-in, in 4 years time the economy may well have recovered a bit, the centre-right is hopelessly split and it is Le Pen and FN who are really making the big gains, and French presidents, like American presidents, are more often than not re-elected, especially after only 1 term of their party in the office. Night!

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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    SeanT said:

    The transition would be massively painful; think of the problems Germany has had since reunification and multiply by a couple of orders of magnitude. It may not be a case of the South raising the North up; it may be a case of the North dragging the South down.

    Add in China as a neighbour, and it could get hot.

    Yet if a chance came, the South would jump at it, just as Germany did.

    IMHO, of course.

    I think it would be South Korea lifting North Korea up, but it would be a joint effort by South Korea and China. China has the power to pull the plug on North Korea at any time it likes, and it doesn't like for obvious reasons of social and economic stability.

    The recent TV documentary on DPRK showed that the flow of information from the outside world into the DPRK is increasing substantially and is probably unstoppable. Therefore the collapse of the DPRK is inevitable, and when it happens it will be very quick and unexpected. It might happen in 2014 or in 2034 or any time in between.

    The recent development of the executed Uncle Jang is significant not because it has happened but because the DPRK has been so open about it. There are splits within the WPK and the army between the hardliners and the reformists in a way that has never happened before.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    edited December 2013
    It was sensible to have the lefty Peter Hain on BBC Question Time. He sounded like a moderate right-winger in advising the South Africans not to be silly enough to redistribute land in the Zimbabwe style.

    It reminded me of the QT episode in the USA in which the token British panellist was Richard Littlejohn, who came across as a sensible lefty liberal when compared with some of the redneck hanging-shooting opinions of the American politicians.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Fitalass Well of course Sarkozy has a chance, yes
This discussion has been closed.