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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

Topcliffe on Hambleton (Con Defence)
Result of last election (2011): Con 39, Ind 3, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Con 550 (75%), Lib Dem 185 (25%)
Candidates duly nominated: Garry Key (Con)
Result: Conservative HOLD elected unopposed

Read the full story here

MikeK

First! Teehee.

surbiton

I ma missing Falkirk ! Where are Carlotta and Fitalass ?

Scrapheap_as_was

Just got in and seen the Spurs team.

WTF if you pardon my text......................

Has no one told AVB that we're at home to Liverpool in a couple of days, that we've got a v v busy Xmas calendar coming up as well as the League Cup next week, that we've already won the europa league so tonight is pointless.... I've seen dembele and soldado both go down so far and they are NOT squad players....

The youngsters appear to be on the bench...

SO - what is going on please?

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.

isam

Surely this should be on a Nighthawks story list

I'm not THAT Tom Daley!

http://www.sundaysport.com/?p=13660

compouter1

I thought Falkirk was the game changer (amongst many other game changers)? Not even the PB Hodges are mentioning it now (though they did drag it out for quite a while).

Morris_Dancer

Call for Bernie Ecclestone to be probed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25307307

nigel4england

compouter1 said:

I thought Falkirk was the game changer (amongst many other game changers)? Not even the PB Hodges are mentioning it now (though they did drag it out for quite a while).

Seen this?

http://order-order.com/2013/12/12/unite-to-labour-no-reform-no-primaries-unions-to-control-candidate-selection/

Morris_Dancer

Kim Jong-Un's uncle has apparently been executed: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25359939

compouter1

surbiton said:

I ma missing Falkirk ! Where are Carlotta and Fitalass ?

You got there before me. Those were the days, endless topics of nothing to do with Falkirk being stuffed with comments about Falkirk and how Ed was dooooooooooooooooooooooooomed. Heady days indeed. Meanwhile Labours percentage has gone from between 37% and 40% within moe to....err....between 37% and 40%within moe.Wonder what the next PB Hodges "Game Changer" will be?

Scott_P

Falkirk, where swift decisive Ed took on the unions in a big fight. Whatever happened to that? Oh, yes, Len told Ed to sit down and shut up.

@GuidoFawkes: Unite to Labour: No Reform, No Primaries, Unions Control Selections http://t.co/TVoJLIISc8

compouter1

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

I thought Falkirk was the game changer (amongst many other game changers)? Not even the PB Hodges are mentioning it now (though they did drag it out for quite a while).

Seen this?

http://order-order.com/2013/12/12/unite-to-labour-no-reform-no-primaries-unions-to-control-candidate-selection/

Guido..so no. Is it going to be another PB Hodges "Game Changer"? If not, I will give it a miss.

Scott_P

nigel4england said:

Seen this?

http://order-order.com/2013/12/12/unite-to-labour-no-reform-no-primaries-unions-to-control-candidate-selection/

Remember, according to the PB Kinnocks, Falkirk is a major win for Ed.

RedRag still proudly flying the flag...

compouter1

Scott_P said:

Falkirk, where swift decisive Ed took on the unions in a big fight. Whatever happened to that? Oh, yes, Len told Ed to sit down and shut up.

@GuidoFawkes: Unite to Labour: No Reform, No Primaries, Unions Control Selections http://t.co/TVoJLIISc8

Show me the game changer.......Show me the game changer

compouter1

Scott_P said:

nigel4england said:

Seen this?

http://order-order.com/2013/12/12/unite-to-labour-no-reform-no-primaries-unions-to-control-candidate-selection/

Remember, according to the PB Kinnocks, Falkirk is a major win for Ed.

RedRag still proudly flying the flag...

Always proud to fly the flag:

http://redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/

Scott_P

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

Y0kel

North Korea: The de facto 2nd in command between No.1 leader Kim Jong Un and a long time associate of Kim's dad and grandfather has reportedly been executed for treason. Think of it like shooting Brown for constantly plotting against him......

He was very much one China's key men in North Korea. Their reaction will be interesting.

compouter1

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Y0kel, isn't China's room for manoeuvre somewhat limited, given they want to avoid a full blown civil war/crisis in North Korea which could see millions cross the border?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Compouter, is that a direct quote?

Y0kel

The Chinese are perfectly capable of hemming them in. They'd not want the instability but they won't be happy.

compouter1

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Compouter, is that a direct quote?

Always! How dare you question my quotation marks.

nigel4england

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Compouter, I do apologise for doubting you. I just think it slightly odd behaviour to apparently keep 4 month old quotations from other posters and have them readily to hand.

Charles

isam said:

Surely this should be on a Nighthawks story list

I'm not THAT Tom Daley!

http://www.sundaysport.com/?p=13660

I looked at the stuff [explicit photos of men] for hours...captivated by the awfulness of it

Oh, really? Colour me sceptical

TGOHF

MOE MOE MOE !!!

Nice you gov.

TheScreamingEagles

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

TheScreamingEagles

Mr Dancer

southpaw ‏@nycsouthpaw 17m

Don't half-ass a standing ovation in North Korea.

http://www.nknews.org/kcna-watch/kcna-article/?0038638e …

pic.twitter.com/TvwjnmpO4C

compouter1

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Compouter, I do apologise for doubting you. I just think it slightly odd behaviour to apparently keep 4 month old quotations from other posters and have them readily to hand.

Always ready with the facts old boy, always ready.

Morris_Dancer

I still can't believe the Lib Dem figure. Nine percent seems incredible. Anyway, I'm off for the night.

Sunil_Prasannan

QT from Johannesburg??//

compouter1

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

When you provide we with the information I requested, then I will be forthcoming.

Jonathan

Morris_Dancer said:

I still can't believe the Lib Dem figure. Nine percent seems incredible. Anyway, I'm off for the night.

9% too high?

Charles

SeanT said:

I made a nifty €2000 today, just sitting on my stupid fat Cornish butt, and tweeting nonsense.

Dziękuje Polska.

I love thriller writin'. Having a backlist of thrillers to sell around the world is a bit like being a 90s pimp in New York. You have a string of hos, so you give them a bit of a slapping to get them motivated, then they get out there in Alphabet City or the Upper East Side and do the job, and you just sit back and let the greenbacks roll in.

*drinks more Brunello*

Friend & client of mine just made an extra $250,000 (on top of the $2m he was already being paid) pretty much because I told him there was no harm in asking for more... My cut is 0.5%

(Although I did have to take a 30 minute call at 11pm, so perhaps I should charge him overtime...)

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Polldrums. Labour percentage (within moe) in a "we shall not be moved" stand for ages.

TGOHF

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

Charles

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

Did you change a typo, or am I way too tired?

compouter1

Wonder what percentage the Conservatives will need if Labour are on between 37-40% to stop them forming a government? It must be mid 40's ...no?

TGOHF

Charles said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

Did you change a typo, or am I way too tired?

I think I was auto spell corrected...

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

YouGov/The Sunil:

Coalition 44%
Labour 39%

Sunil_Prasannan

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

To be fair Peter Hain represents the Liberal and Labour opposition to Apartheid.
Were you wanting a Tory collaborator on, bless.

How about an Islamist in favour of segregation in University?

compouter1

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

YouGov/The Sunil:

Coalition 44%
Labour 39%

Have we had a second Sunil crossover ;-)

Stuart_Dickson

YouGov/Times
Sample Size: 1074 Scottish Adults
Fieldwork: 6th - 9th December 2013
(+/- change from YouGov 13th - 16th September 2013)

Constituency vote (FPTP)

Lab 38% (+4)
SNP 38% (+1)
Con 14% (-2)
LD 5% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (n/c)
Grn 1% (-1)

Regional vote (AMS)

Lab 37% (+6)
SNP 34% (+1)
Con 14% (-1)
LD 5% (-1)
Grn 3% (-4)
SSP 3% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (-1)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4oafy049jl/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland(2).pdf

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

To be fair Peter Hain represents the Liberal and Labour opposition to Apartheid.
Were you wanting a Tory collaborator on, bless.

He's there as the shadow minister for Peter Hain's speaking fee and book sales.

Dreadful blow hard - but not his fault the BBC doesn't understand balance.

TheScreamingEagles

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I still can't believe the Lib Dem figure. Nine percent seems incredible. Anyway, I'm off for the night.

9% too high?

There's a Times/YouGov poll on Holyrood out

has the Lib Dems on 5%

Constituency vote

Lab 38%, SNP 38%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 5%, Greens 3%

List

Lab 37%, SNP 34%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 3%, Greens 1%

Yeah, Johann Lamont is on course to be first Minister according to this poll.

foxinsoxuk

Pik Botha will be interesting.

I wonder what they will make of Mandelas squandered legacy, or whether the audience will boo and jeer like they did at the memorial.

More likely that they will show a dignity and respect that is unusual on QT.

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

QT from Johanesburg??//

With a Labour twit as the only Uk politician ??? WTF ?

Can I have a refund ?

To be fair Peter Hain represents the Liberal and Labour opposition to Apartheid.
Were you wanting a Tory collaborator on, bless.

nigel4england

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

When you provide we with the information I requested, then I will be forthcoming.

Which was?

perdix

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

North Korea: The de facto 2nd in command between No.1 leader Kim Jong Un and a long time associate of Kim's dad and grandfather has reportedly been executed for treason. Think of it like shooting Brown for constantly plotting against him......

He was very much one China's key men in North Korea. Their reaction will be interesting.

I have the feeling North Korea approaches its end. Dunno why. Just do. In me waters. The new guy in NK reminds me of Egon Krenz, the last man to run the DDR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egon_Krenz

Think it's the face.

History goes from tragedy to farce, and then it all falls apart in a vaguely sitcom way (though lives are lost, in reality).

What then? Korea will reunite. And a reunited Korea will be a VERY FORMIDABLE economic and military power. It would probably overtake the UK, France and maybe even Germany in overall GDP.

I once had a young South Korean business contact. I asked him whether he thought that the North and South would reunite. He said "yes, and then we will invade Japan". Deep bad feelings.

Y0kel

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

North Korea: The de facto 2nd in command between No.1 leader Kim Jong Un and a long time associate of Kim's dad and grandfather has reportedly been executed for treason. Think of it like shooting Brown for constantly plotting against him......

He was very much one China's key men in North Korea. Their reaction will be interesting.

I have the feeling North Korea approaches its end. Dunno why. Just do. In me waters. The new guy in NK reminds me of Egon Krenz, the last man to run the DDR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egon_Krenz

Think it's the face.

History goes from tragedy to farce, and then it all falls apart in a vaguely sitcom way (though lives are lost, in reality).

What then? Korea will reunite. And a reunited Korea will be a VERY FORMIDABLE economic and military power. It would probably overtake the UK, France and maybe even Germany in overall GDP.

Im inclined to agree that there is the whiff of some kind of change being due. What that change is I couldn't say.

Stuart_Dickson

YouGov:

"We are interested to know how people living in Scotland see themselves in terms of their nationality. Which of the statements best describes how you regard yourself?"

Scottish, not British 27%
More Scottish than British 27%
Equally Scottish and British 27%
More British than Scottish 4%
British, not Scottish 10%
other 4%
DK2%

compouter1

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

When you provide we with the information I requested, then I will be forthcoming.

Which was?

You said I had posted Ed would walk it. Show me the proof or be off with you old bean.

AveryLP

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Crossover by Christmas.

It looks as if the stickly 2010 Lib Dems are falling off the Christmas money tree.

JosiasJessop

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

North Korea: The de facto 2nd in command between No.1 leader Kim Jong Un and a long time associate of Kim's dad and grandfather has reportedly been executed for treason. Think of it like shooting Brown for constantly plotting against him......

He was very much one China's key men in North Korea. Their reaction will be interesting.

I have the feeling North Korea approaches its end. Dunno why. Just do. In me waters. The new guy in NK reminds me of Egon Krenz, the last man to run the DDR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egon_Krenz

Think it's the face.

History goes from tragedy to farce, and then it all falls apart in a vaguely sitcom way (though lives are lost, in reality).

What then? Korea will reunite. And a reunited Korea will be a VERY FORMIDABLE economic and military power. It would probably overtake the UK, France and maybe even Germany in overall GDP.

Eventually, yes. The transition would be massively painful; think of the problems Germany has had since reunification and multiply by a couple of orders of magnitude. It may not be a case of the South raising the North up; it may be a case of the North dragging the South down.

Add in China as a neighbour, and it could get hot.

Yet if a chance came, the South would jump at it, just as Germany did.

IMHO, of course.

compouter1

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Crossover by Christmas.

It looks as if the stickly 2010 Lib Dems are falling off the Christmas money tree.

Is this the imminent crossover you have been talking about for months....or do you mean Christmas 2020?

nigel4england

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

When you provide we with the information I requested, then I will be forthcoming.

Which was?

You said I had posted Ed would walk it. Show me the proof or be off with you old bean.

I did say that I accept that you have not said that directly. I also said that now that was out of the way would you please answer my questions.

You didn't.

Why not?

AndreaParma_82

South Suffolk members will start receiving ballot papers for Yeo's reselection on January 20.

Labour Leeds East selection. All 4 wards met to nominate contenders. Situation as follow:

Crossgates and Whinmoor: Richard Burgon and Judith Cummins
Gipton and Harehills: Mohammed Iqbal and Judith Cummins
Temple Newsam: Mohammed Iqbal and Judith Cummins
Killingbeck & Seacroft: Richard Burgon, Judith Cummins and Mohammed Iqbal (BAME nomination).

compouter1

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

nigel4england said:

compouter1 said:

Scott_P said:

Good job the Unite story is only on Guido. Nobody like the Guardian is running it...

@patrickwintour: Unite Gen Sect Len McCluskey "reforms must ensure organisations affiliated to the Labour Party continue to do so on collective basis".

I can see this destroying Ed and giving the Tory a huge majority.

FAO Avery LP, four months ago you said "the polling crossover is now imminent and the Conservative Party will take the lead in the polls".

Err......http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

By the way did you ever answer the questions I asked you at the weekend or are you a total coward?

When you provide we with the information I requested, then I will be forthcoming.

Which was?

You said I had posted Ed would walk it. Show me the proof or be off with you old bean.

I did say that I accept that you have not said that directly. I also said that now that was out of the way would you please answer my questions.

You didn't.

Why not?

I have taken offence you misquoting me. The works of a bounder....be off with you.

TheScreamingEagles

SNP Gauleiter says “At this stage in the last Scottish Parliament, a YouGov poll had Labour ahead in both the constituency and list votes — so they are actually in a relatively worse position in this Parliament — and the SNP went on to achieve a fantastic win in the 2011 election.”

compouter1

tim said:

Labour getting killed in Scotland.
Another PB Tory crutch falls away

Was the Labour getting killed in Scotland a result of or the helping with the imminent polling crossover?

PBModerator

Nigel4England

You were previously warned about swearing/being abusive towards other posters

Your posting privileges will be restored in a few days.

Stuart_Dickson

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

surbiton

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

North Korea: The de facto 2nd in command between No.1 leader Kim Jong Un and a long time associate of Kim's dad and grandfather has reportedly been executed for treason. Think of it like shooting Brown for constantly plotting against him......

He was very much one China's key men in North Korea. Their reaction will be interesting.

I have the feeling North Korea approaches its end. Dunno why. Just do. In me waters. The new guy in NK reminds me of Egon Krenz, the last man to run the DDR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egon_Krenz

Think it's the face.

History goes from tragedy to farce, and then it all falls apart in a vaguely sitcom way (though lives are lost, in reality).

What then? Korea will reunite. And a reunited Korea will be a VERY FORMIDABLE economic and military power. It would probably overtake the UK, France and maybe even Germany in overall GDP.

Eventually, yes. The transition would be massively painful; think of the problems Germany has had since reunification and multiply by a couple of orders of magnitude. It may not be a case of the South raising the North up; it may be a case of the North dragging the South down.

Add in China as a neighbour, and it could get hot.

Yet if a chance came, the South would jump at it, just as Germany did.

IMHO, of course.

I was in Seoul in October and funnily enough a few people told me they wanted NK to have a couple of nuclear warheads. I was puzzled somewhat. They feel that NK would use that as a bargaining chip in a slow transition to unification. However, they were secretly pleased that China, Japan and the US would be shit-scared !

East Germany's transition would be nothing compared to NK-SK unification. If you sit one the right side of the plane taking off to the west at night, you can see how suddenly the border is dark.

MikeL

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

surbiton

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I still can't believe the Lib Dem figure. Nine percent seems incredible. Anyway, I'm off for the night.

9% too high?

There's a Times/YouGov poll on Holyrood out

has the Lib Dems on 5%

Constituency vote

Lab 38%, SNP 38%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 5%, Greens 3%

List

Lab 37%, SNP 34%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 3%, Greens 1%

Yeah, Johann Lamont is on course to be first Minister according to this poll.

Labour falling apart !

compouter1

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

TheScreamingEagles

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

TheScreamingEagles

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That's the poll from a few days ago?

Max_Edinburgh

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It strikes me that it is extremely complacent to assume that the Labour vote will stick at 37-40% all the way to 2015 indefinitely. If the economy continues to improve I think Labour should perhaps start to be more concerned. To assume that, no one in that 37-40% will waver at the thought of Milliband and Balls in charge of the economy whn they actually have to cast a vote, brave to say the least.

TheScreamingEagles

Given the excitement a week ago.

YouGov changes from a week ago

Con +6

Lab -2

LD nc

UKIP -3.

Is wise to remember, at least one yougov a month will be an outlier, if it looks like an outlier, it probably is an outlier.

Stuart_Dickson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That's the poll from a few days ago?

Referendum voting intention
Weighted Sample

Yes 353
No 563

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4oafy049jl/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland(2).pdf

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

Now now TSE - We can all play this game. The Labour percentage is actually up from three/four months ago. Ironically when a certain person on here predicted an imminent crossover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

TheScreamingEagles

Stuart_Dickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That's the poll from a few days ago?

Referendum voting intention
Weighted Sample

Yes 353
No 563

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4oafy049jl/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland(2).pdf

It is.

AveryLP

TheScreamingEagles said:

Given the excitement a week ago.

YouGov changes from a week ago

Con +6

Lab -2

LD nc

UKIP -3.

Is wise to remember, at least one yougov a month will be an outlier, if it looks like an outlier, it probably is an outlier.

Surely YouGov have exhausted their outliers for this month with the absurd poll from Scotland showing Labour leads?

AndyJS

1982 by-elections, including Beaconsfield:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg8&amp

Stuart_Dickson

tim said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That looks pretty close to the final result.

Jumping on the PB Complacency Bandwagon tim?

AndyJS

SeanT said:

Times paywall fact: if asked to choose, 46 percent of French voters want Sarkozy as president, once more, against 27 percent who prefer to keep Hollande.

Ed Miliband, that's your friend, that is.

Hollande only won because of overwhelming support from the North African population, and now they pretty much detest him because he hasn't done anything for them.

TheScreamingEagles

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

Now now TSE - We can all play this game. The Labour percentage is actually up from three/four months ago. Ironically when a certain person on here predicted an imminent crossover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Looking at that graph, it hasn't been update for recent polls.

TheScreamingEagles

AndyJS said:

1982 by-elections, including Beaconsfield:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg8&amp

The Labour candidate in Beaconsfield, fought on a campaign to withdraw the UK from the then EC, was a bit of a lefty.

Whatever became of him, one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair?

Stuart_Dickson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That's the poll from a few days ago?

Referendum voting intention
Weighted Sample

Yes 353
No 563

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4oafy049jl/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland(2).pdf

It is.

It is very interesting to note that that September YouGov they use for comparison ***has never been published before***. One begins to wonder how many YG/Murdoch polls have been conducted in Scotland but never published? And why?

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Given the excitement a week ago.

YouGov changes from a week ago

Con +6

Lab -2

LD nc

UKIP -3.

Is wise to remember, at least one yougov a month will be an outlier, if it looks like an outlier, it probably is an outlier.

It is why I always quote the Labour percentage of between 37%-40% within moe. I would assume that if Labour hit the lowest end of 37% at the election then the Tory Party would need to be at least 43% to stop Labour forming the government due to the inbuilt bias etc etc.

AndyJS

SeanT said:

I bet the BBC is, corporately, cringing right now. "Why the F did we decide to send Question Time to Johannesburg?"

It is utterly, poisonously mortifying. I almost feel sorry for lefties. I just hope there is a decent deafdumb signy person to help us understand the BBC decision making.

Just switched on, what have I missed so far?

compouter1

tim said:

Check out the poll reporting on the front page of the Sun.

They are getting desperate.

dr_spyn

Now that Mandela is about to be buried who is going to replace him in the BBC's pantheon of the great and good.

What will The Corporation do when that bearded wonder on Cuba finally gives up breathing? Move Radio5live from Salford to Havana? QT question from Fidel's boat Gramma?

compouter1

tim said:

Check out the poll reporting on the front page of the Sun.

Forget the poll, cracking headline for *ahem* Team Nigella.

Stuart_Dickson

tim said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

tim said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That looks pretty close to the final result.

Jumping on the PB Complacency Bandwagon tim?

Watching the gender gap Stuart

I'll take that as a yes.

TheScreamingEagles

Stuart_Dickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

YouGov: IndyRef (excl. DK/WNV)

Yes 39%
No 61%

That's the poll from a few days ago?

Referendum voting intention
Weighted Sample

Yes 353
No 563

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4oafy049jl/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland(2).pdf

It is.

It is very interesting to note that that September YouGov they use for comparison ***has never been published before***. One begins to wonder how many YG/Murdoch polls have been conducted in Scotland but never published? And why?

It has been published, twice!

YouGov is a terrible website for trying to track down/search for old polls.

surbiton

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

Now now TSE - We can all play this game. The Labour percentage is actually up from three/four months ago. Ironically when a certain person on here predicted an imminent crossover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

It is theoretically possible that we could have:

C 40%

L 35%

LD 12%

UKIP 6%

Others 7%

But the Tories still would not have a majority but could govern as a minority. Labour + LD would not be able to form a government either.

The problem for the Tories will not be Labour @ 35%. We are always saying that Labour has not gone below 35% for yonks, but what about UKIP ? Whew did they last go below 10% ?

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

Now now TSE - We can all play this game. The Labour percentage is actually up from three/four months ago. Ironically when a certain person on here predicted an imminent crossover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Looking at that graph, it hasn't been update for recent polls.

It is up to the poll for Yougov conducted 9-10 November :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

AndyJS

Typical of today's angry Britain — two men in their 60s being involved in a fight over a disabled parking bay:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-25346826

dr_spyn

Is the fake interpreter helping Dimbleby and guests with their answers?

SouthCoastKevin

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Polldrums. Labour percentage (within moe) in a "we shall not be moved" stand for ages.

You're a Labour supporter, right? Are you seriously happy with just having a 4% lead over the Tories at this point in the electoral cycle (and the economic cycle for that matter)? Or in fact a 5% deficit compared to the parties in government, if you look at it that way...

compouter1

surbiton said:

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

YouGov average Labour lead for the last 8 weeks (ie each number is average of the 5 polls in the week), oldest week first:

6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
7.4
5.0 = this week, first 4 polls, one poll still to come

So not a big move but at the same time a noticeable one - at a minimum it is least somewhat encouraging for Con.

I know a polling expert once said ( I cannot remember who it was) that you should actually concentrate on the party percentages not the leads. I asked earlier if anyone knows, if Labour is in the 37-40% bracket where it has been for virtually all this parliament (within moe), what would the Tory percentage need to be to stop a Labour government.....45%?

It was Sir Bob Worcester to Mike Smithson, although Lab have slipped from the 41-44% they were polling a year ago.

Now now TSE - We can all play this game. The Labour percentage is actually up from three/four months ago. Ironically when a certain person on here predicted an imminent crossover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

It is theoretically possible that we could have:

C 40%

L 35%

LD 12%

UKIP 6%

Others 7%

But the Tories still would not have a majority but could govern as a minority. Labour + LD would not be able to form a government either.

The problem for the Tories will not be Labour @ 35%. We are always saying that Labour has not gone below 35% for yonks, but what about UKIP ? Whew did they last go below 10% ?

Those figures would be a disaster for the Tory Party as they are going to take the lead in the polls at Christmas(rAvery LP) and will have only gained an extra 4% lead in the remaining 16 months.

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

I'm SOOOOO glad Peter Hain, white British MP for Neath, South Wales, is telling the British, from JoBurg, how the South Africans should do things.

Does anyone know if this BBC QT is actually being broadcast in South Africa, as live as it is broadcast in the UK?

If Peter Hain wants to do something to honour Nelson Mandela, can I suggest he goes and digs up the test pitches in Australia.

compouter1

SouthCoastKevin said:

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Polldrums. Labour percentage (within moe) in a "we shall not be moved" stand for ages.

You're a Labour supporter, right? Are you seriously happy with just having a 4% lead over the Tories at this point in the electoral cycle (and the economic cycle for that matter)? Or in fact a 5% deficit compared to the parties in government, if you look at it that way...

SouthCoastKevin said:

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to four points:

CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

Polldrums. Labour percentage (within moe) in a "we shall not be moved" stand for ages.

You're a Labour supporter, right? Are you seriously happy with just having a 4% lead over the Tories at this point in the electoral cycle (and the economic cycle for that matter)? Or in fact a 5% deficit compared to the parties in government, if you look at it that way...

Yes I am happy with the Labour figure of between 37%-40% as unless there is a distinct rise in the Conservative vote to 43% and above it would result in a Labour government.

SouthCoastKevin

Dan Hodges talking complete, utter sense about MPs' pay tonight: Clickety click

They commissioned an independent review. Now accept what the review says, you cowards. Pfft.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP Gauleiter

Hmm.

TheScreamingEagles said:

“At this stage in the last Scottish Parliament, a YouGov poll had Labour ahead in both the constituency and list votes — so they are actually in a relatively worse position in this Parliament — and the SNP went on to achieve a fantastic win in the 2011 election.”

Isn't a recurring PB Tory theme that Ed being only 5-6 points ahead at this stage of a parliament is disastrous for a main opposition party. Is this just a Westminster formulation?

On those YG figs it would mean a SLAB minority government or coalition with the Tories (LDs not even making a taxiful). That would certainly liven things up.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP Gauleiter

Hmm.

I blame Alex Salmond for reminding me of that word.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/opinion/salmonds-gauleiter-slur-creates-row-too-silly-for-words.16713320

Re, your other point, I agree.

And Damn you, your multi-quote reply is confusing me and making it hard to reply to it.

AndyJS

MPs should stop trying to placate public opinion on the issue of pay because they're never going to achieve that goal. Half the public would be angry with them even if they cut their pay to the minimum wage.

SouthCoastKevin

compouter1 said:

Yes I am happy with the Labour figure of between 37%-40% as unless there is a distinct rise in the Conservative vote to 43% and above it would result in a Labour government.

Blimey, I admire your confidence. Obviously it's hard to be sure but I reckon I'd be devastated if I were hoping for a Labour win at the next GE. We shall see...

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP Gauleiter

Hmm.

I blame Alex Salmond for reminding me of that word.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/opinion/salmonds-gauleiter-slur-creates-row-too-silly-for-words.16713320

Re, your other point, I agree.

And Damn you, your multi-quote reply is confusing me and making it hard to reply to it.

I dare say Eck was a little de-sensitized to such language after being continually referred to by his opponents as a Nazi, Fascist, Mussolini, North Korean Dictator, Generalissimo etc, etc. Certainly an unwise choice of words, but I don't think he's ever been noted for his Christian meekness.