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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How 2010 Lib Dems rate the Conservatives and Labour on key
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How 2010 Lib Dems rate the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas
Following on from this morning’s post on the importance of 2010 Lib Dems to Labour’s current polling I’ve now been looking at policy areas to see how this crucial group of potential swing voters view the blues and the reds.
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I got 90% on the psychopath scale.
OK, I cheated, I pretended to be Ed Milliband. I only got 42% when I answered as myself.
Some unusually precise economic forecasts from the British Chambers of Commerce:
• In the second half of 2014, UK GDP will exceed its pre-recession peak of 2008.
• GDP growth in 2014 has been revised up from 2.2% to 2.7%.
• Its forecast for GDP growth in 2013 has been revised up from 1.3% to 1.4%.
• The BoE threshold of unemployment at 7.0% or below will be achieved in Q3 2015, a quarter earlier than previously forecast.
• Interest rates are forecast to rise by 0.25% in Q4 2015 and a further 1% in 2016.
And now the commentary from John Longworth, head of the BCC:
"As household consumption slows in the medium term, we have to find ways of boosting business investment and exports, as rebalancing our economy is critical to our long-term economic future.”
"If we make important decisions to fix the long-term structural failure in business finance, continue to deliver a major infrastructure upgrade and do more to support exports, it is possible to achieve not just a good recovery, but a truly great and sustainable economy."
They obviously make good tractors at the BCC.
Clearly, the figures in the leader indicate a strong 2010 LD bias to Labour, which of course reinforces what we're seeing in the polls, but one of the most crucial questions is whether the 2010 LD-Lab switchers will stay with Team rEd come the election or whether it's a mid-term / non-government move that will melt away as the prospect of their being responsible for electing a government forms a part of their thinking. The Tories don't need to win the 2010 LDs over (though obviously it makes life easier for them if that does happen); they just need to peel them off Labour, one way or another.
1. Many lib dem voters won';t vote lib dem next time around
2. These switchers will pretty much all vote for somebody next time around.
3. Those votes are far more likely to go to labour than conservative parties.
4. This logic does not hold for tory/lib dem seats, where lib dems will tend to be much more loyal, and will turn out in equal force to last time.
It's fair enough, I guess.
Ignorance and certainly is a dangerous mix.
John Redwood's gone off script again:
" The Office of Budget responsibility now endorses what I have been saying for the last three years. Public spending is rising in real terms as well as cash terms."
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/12/11/its-official-there-is-real-growth-in-uk-public-spending/
I
Yet an anti EU party who take the toughest line on immigration are gaining members by the thousand as the other parties lose them hand over fist, and in English elections in the last year they have over performed in relation to what the polls predicted almost every time...
Still, what use are hard facts when there is subjective data to analyse?
Yes, Redwood is forever proving an inconvenient irritation for the Yellow Box Wallah.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25353086
George merely smiled beatifically at the panic-struck and whispered a promise of deploying "economic stabilisers" in their ears. As a result the 2013-13 budget reversed the previous trend of a real reduction in government spending and inserted a small increase.
As it stands at the moment, the budgetted increase has not been met and central government departmental spending is running well below budget. This applies even to social security spending.
Even after allowing for the underspend, it is still not known whether the year end will end up with real rise or fall in spending. It will be close run. The uncertainties mainly surround the degree to which phasing of local government spending has changed from 2012-13. Last fiscal year transfers from central to local governments were back loaded: this year they have been front loaded, so further spending reductions over and above the known underspend remain probable.
Chote has taken a conservative view and not included the probability of these additional savings in his December EFO forecasts.
JohnO may be able to help us by giving further details of the phasing changes in local government financing and an indication of how they will pan out in his council.
As to John Redwood, his statement is correct but the real question is for how long will it so remain.
What is Nutella?
I recognise only Gentleman's Relish.
Here's the same table; number of times more likely to choose Labour over the Lib Dems
Europe 0.6
Immigration 0.7
Law and Order 1.0
Taxation 1.04
Economy 1.1
Education 1.1
Unemployment 1.6
NHS 2.3
I am pointing out that an anti EU party that is big on cutting immigration has become more popular than ever in terms that can be stated as a matter of fact
How could anyone argue differently?
What I had in mind might have been described as accurate but not nice.
____________
If you think Guido's revelations affect Khan's mayoral chances (I don't) may I suggest opening a Winner.com account and taking the 12-1 on Tessa Jowell (She is 6s with Ladbrokes and 9-2 with Paddy Power...). To be honest it is good value no matter what you think of the other's chances.
They give you a £25 free bet (Matched) also when you open so effectively you could get £25 on at a massive 24-1...
Even in better times, the LD vote has always been much softer than the core Conservative or Labour vote. That vote needs to be cajoled or persuaded to come out for each and every election - sometimes it's easy, sometimes much harder but the ground campaign between elections is and always has been crucial.
Chote's comments on this issue are very opaque. He seems to be saying that central government grants to local councils were paid up front in 2013-14 rather than 'in arrears' as in 2012-13. This seems to explain the front loading vs. back loading comments.
But he also implies that it is a more fundamental change whereby central gpvernment grants are being part replaced by allowing local councils to retain a greater share of their own business rates.
And to complicate things further he refers at times to grants and in other instances to loans.
I have never really been able to follow the ins and outs of what he is saying.
There's concern about 2015-16 and following years irrespective of the result of the election. One senior officer thought 2015-16 would be "horrendous" as the new Government (of whatever stripe) came to realise that the structural nature of the deficit would mean much more severe cuts in public spending than had been carried out under the Coalition.
I know of at least one Conservative controlled Council which is dipping into the reserves to keep its projected Council Tax spending as low as possible while safeguarding services.
I would have found out more about the background of the speakers at the talk before agreeing to attend. There are some mosques which seem to specialise in hosting speakers that I personally wouldn't want to be seen dead with. Assuming that the place you were invited to wasn't one of those, I would have stated clearly why I disagreed with such separation, why it made me feel uneasy and why I thought the thinking behind it it incompatible with living in Britain. I would have been polite but firm. There is little point speaking to groups with whom one has disagreements on certain topics and then shying away from the argument.
Incidentally, it is more than "seeing the point about not letting speakers impose restrictions".
It's about - in this week of all weeks, for God's sake - not putting up with those, such as the ineffably stupid woman from the universities on the Today programme this morning, seeking to justify "separate but equal" seating in Britain - in 2013 - at a university.
Even if a chunk of them do switch to Labour, won't that also mean Tories capture LD/Tory marginals from the LDs?
And what about the nonsensical 10-13% that UKIP is getting in the polls that won't translate into real votes in 2015? Surely most of them are Tories really.
Can't help thinking that without Farage and without Lib Dem fibbers, the Tories would be in the lead in the polls currently. Red Ed's lead is pathetic in the circumstances, he should be 15 points clear if he was cutting it as a prospective PM.
I do think a Tory majority is a slim prospect, but Unelectable Ed could prove to be the Tories' biggest asset in 2015. Nobody wants him as PM, not even his own party.
http://ukip.org/newsroom/news/1078-romanians-flout-eu-agreement-now-is-the-chance-of-the-uk-to-act
Eastleigh?
South Shields?
Rotherham?
Corby?
Middlesbrough?
I suppose you could say that only one of them managed to make it into the nonsensical 10-13% bracket
In Eastleigh LDs fell from 47% > 32%
In Corby LDs fell from 14% > 5%
"I do think this is a critical issue and this is why. If I go to a mosque I remove my shoes and abide by the rules of the mosque. Ditto in a synagogue or a CoE church. It is only good manners. But a speaker at a university or at any other public event - at an institution paid for by all of us - does not have the right to say that the audience should agree with and act in accordance with his views. What such speakers are trying to do is to impose their views on the public space - by saying that because the speaker believes in certain views then all those who are there to listen to him must agree with him by complying with the behavioural norms which his views require.
This has nothing to do with his right to freedom of speech since speaking to a mixed audience sitting where they want does not infringe those rights. It is about imposing those views on others by - effectively - making those others agree with them. It is like a speaker saying that he will only speak if everyone who comes to listen agrees in advance that they will agree to his views. It is the same as those speakers who seek to attack women who are - in their view - immodestly dressed or holding hands with men or drinking alcohol because they are in an Islamic area (as 2 people were recently convicted of doing). It is people seeking to create an Islamic space in the public space and on people who are not Muslim or who, if they are, do not share or accept that this is the proper interpretation of Islam.
Let me put the question to you in another way: if a speaker from one of the South African churches which supported apartheid insisted that the audience must be segregated on racial lines would you be equally sanguine? If an Islamic speaker said that he would not allow any Jews to attend a lecture at a university or any gays, would you be equally sanguine?
As you know - and you can get more details from the Harry's Place website - there are some of your fellow Labour MPs who have attended events not to challenge people with repellent views but to support them. I would hope that you would find this as appalling as I do but the Labour leadership have been very reluctant to confront such dreadful behaviour.
I'm afraid that I do feel very strongly about any infringement of women's rights/women's equality, just as I do about attacks on gays by some of the same groups - and for very personal reasons. I wish the Labour party were as vociferous about standing up for women as they ought to be and standing against fascistic cults which would demolish the freedoms and advantages of liberalism, were they given half a chance."
South Shields - 14% to 1.4%
Croydon North - 14% to 3.5%
Middlesbrough - 20% to 10%
Rotherham - 16% to 2%
Cardiff South - 22% to 11%
Manchester Central - 26% to 17%
Hmm, on second thought maybe the key factor is their share of the vote. When they have 20% or more they lost 33-50% of it, when they are lower they lose 90%+.
8 okt 2013 - Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell appointed shadow minister for childcare by Labour leader Ed Miliband.
But here they are calling her: " Labour's Childcare and Children Minister".
http://www.aboutmyarea.co.uk/Buckinghamshire/Milton-Keynes/MK8/News/Local-News/263858-Labour’s-Early-Years-Minister-To-Quiz-MK-Parents-About-Childcare-Views
I hope that it was the media outlet making the error and not an official Labour Party press release pretending that she is a government minister.
It merely shows how deep and broad is the left's hatred of western capitalist society.
Anybody, or anything, ranged against the West is forgiven its sins - and particularly anything ranged against the middle class white west.
On this I like to think of myself as part of the decent liberal left, as exemplified by George Orwell. We need someone like him now, I feel.
2006: 25%, 2011: 15%
2007: 26%, 2012: 16%
2008: 25%, 2013: 14%
The by-elections show the same picture, perhaps a touch more.
Heartily agree – it was as elegant as it was profound, a great post by Cyclefree.
However Tim is right - although mischievous - to point out that there are other parts of the education system that split up boys and girls.
It is part of a trend - Iran has taken some very serious steps towards total segregation in FE, and it was not as if they were the most liberated society to begin with. Other countries such as Turkey are starting to make (in my view) worrying noises about this.
The opacity is more about the change between F/Y 2012-13 and 2013-14 than about forward funding.
The point Chote is making is that at half way point in this financial year the spending outcome and spending forecast appear aligned, but that this may be misleading. In 2012-13 he claims the weight of transfers between central and local government took place in the second half whereas in 2013-14 the equivalent transfers took place in the first half. Chote appears to be saying that, if this phasing mismatch is true, then we should expect second half spending to be lower.
But he then goes on to talk about changes in funding methodology (less CG funding and more self-funding from rates) and the uncertainly in local government borrowing levels due to the grant phasing and methodology changes
I was fishing for someone on PB to explain what Chote means.
On forward funding you are absolutely right about the 'need' for more cuts in current expenditure.if the next government is to meet the 2018-19 forecast of a balanced budget and zero deficit. I quoted various paragraphs from the OBR's EFO in a post a few days ago (the one about the largest sustained reduction in real terms spending of any advanced economy since the 1940s). The taxes have been put up but only a small(ish) proportion of the matching cuts have yet been made.
Of course, the longer you leave the cuts the shallower the cuts need t be (provided growth is maintained) but the blood still needs to run. It will be interesting to see how OBR 'route to zero' plans play out in the election campaign.
And equally shameful that our politicians, so quick to come out with the tritest of utterances on matters of the utmost banality, are silent on such an important issue.
But those of us who feel strongly on this need to say our piece, wherever we can, and not just leave it to Muslim women. This is not an issue for Muslims. Or for Muslim women. Or women. It's an issue for all of us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHF20okcv58
Earlsfield resident Olivia Seccombe writing to the Wandsworth Guardian:
“I would like to question the judgement of Tooting’s Member of Parliament, Sadiq Khan, now Babar Ahmad has been found guilty of running websites that allegedly sought to raise money, recruit fighters and seek equipment for terrorists in Afghanistan and Chechnya… Now this man has been found guilty – after a full and fair trial in the States – I would like Mr Khan to answer firstly, what his concerns with the legal process were and secondly, why he spent so much time campaigning for this man when he should have been representing Tooting in Parliament?”
The seats where the LDs dropped more than 10% of the vote, seem to be the ones where UKIP surged.
Eastleigh 15%
Rotherham 14%
South Shields 12%
Bombs, beheadings, groomings...
No criticism
Balding man has combover, drinks frothy Guinness, eats pasty...
You know the rest
Given that this is only appearing on social media and no mention at all has been made in any mainstream source I was just wondering if it is simply a smear or if there is any truth in it?
If they're comfortable with educating female students to behave like this in 2013, then yes.
''it was very noticeable that the girls were silent and deferential, and when I directly asked them things they looked embarrassed and shy.''
(From Nick Palmer's post, previous thread).
A blanket loss of 10% would seem to cap potential LD losses @ 27.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/
As I said before, I would stop funding for any university which allows segregation on its premises at the behest of a speaker for any reason whatsoever. If a sixth form college does the same thing at the behest of a speaker, then the same applies. I've not heard of any sixth form doing this.
We do know that British universities are the ones which have come up with this absurdly illiberal policy and the priority should be to reverse it pdq.
The right have not, frankly, been much better at challenging this sort of pernicious nonsense.
This is not, primarily, a right-left issue but a liberal / illiberal issue. The trouble is that there are too many people of the left - not, by any means, all - who think of themselves as liberal but who, when it comes to it, are wholly unwilling to fight for liberalism's values or who come up with some amazingly illiberal views and policies.
But I am off the hook, at least. I'm a company director who loves his white kids and wife, and is very fond of his white mates. Phew!
"What is Nutella?"
I think you mean who is Nutella ?
I believe it to be a derogatory nickname for the fragrant Nuala - late of this parish.
What's your point?
I really cannot believe that we are arguing about why "separate but equal" is not acceptable in this day and age in our society, whatever backward views they may have in Iran or elsewhere.
Anyway, having rather hijacked this thread I'm off to do Xmassy things i.e. decorate the tree.
Actually that letter is not strictly correct. The defendant was not found guilty, he has actually copped a plea, not quite the same thing.
Even so, does this affect the outlook on 'Kahn for Mayor...?'
one is for children one is for adults. The reality is the only reason this is being tolerated is because of those demanding it.
At the election the relative fall in the Con vote / UKIP surge will clearly be the key factor for the LDs.
http://www.labour-southeast.org.uk/early_years_shadow_minister_launches_mk_childcare_survey
The headline refers to her as "Shadow Minister", but the text calls her a "Minister". That is a really crass error.
Still bleating about how Osborne is cutting public spending too much?
lol
Mike - What exactly constitutes a PB sex investigation ? .... we should be told .... only in the interests of transparency of course !!
"Do you want Catalonia to be a state?"
"Do you want it to be an independent state?"
This agreement was reached after a lot of bickering. Apparently you only get to answer the second question if your answer to the first one is Yes. As you can see this is potentially pretty confusing, which is what happens when a lot of people with different ideas have to be satisfied.
That said, under the Spanish constitution only the central government can call a referendum and the central government is not going to do that, as it made clear again today. The majority of people in Catalonia, though, want one. Cue further stand-offs and general nastiness.
Both sides are playing this horribly and as I have said before on here it is going to get deeply unpleasant at some stage - I can see people getting killed. Ironically, if the central government - which is run by the Spanish nationalist PP - were to agree that Catalonia could get the deal the Basques have most Catalans would probably be happy enough - though the longer they just get No from Madrid the more radicalised they will become.
The atmosphere in Barcelona last time I was there was awful. It is not the place it was; the joy and the openness has gone. Catalan nationalists, like Spanish ones, are profoundly intolerant and dismissive of those who do not share their views.
The best hope for a resolution is for a change of government in Madrid. That is a couple of years off at least though and is far from guaranteed. I dread to think what might end up happening in the meantime.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bt-mossbourne-academy-and-the-harris-federation-named-among-sponsors-of-new-academies
In contrast I can't help feeling the money poured into your education went straight down the dunny and frankly the taxpayer is due a bloody great refund.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/10/nelson-mandela-world-leaders-selfie
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/ed-miliband-poses-for-selfie-with-joey-essex-8999590.html
What would dear old Ralph think? Marx must be spinning in his grave.
hisher friends, one of whom happens to be our Prime Minister? Difficult times in partisan left-wing attack land, obviously...On many occasions I pointed out, that spending was not being reduced. That in fact public expenditure was *increasing*, and that had never been at such a high level.
Repeatedly, repeatedly, repeatedly.
I left the site for some time, and come back, and here you are completely about face claiming that Osborne never cut spending. etc etc etc.
http://www.sundaysport.com/?p=13660
Meanwhile Ed Balls couldn't get a job doing sign language for the ANC.