Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.
The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
I haven't watched any of Keir's forensic brilliance in the commons yet, but isn't the problem for him the same as any other LotO - That PM's don't listen to the questions, so how good they are doesn't really matter? They just spew the soundbites they want to appear on twitter/News at Ten as if that's what they'd been asked to do
Starmer repeating "The Prime Minister hasn't answered my question" 3-4 times a week is no different to Jezza or Ed.
You ask embarrassing questions, so it doesn't matter how or whether the PM answers.
"Why did the government abandon contact tracing?" is a good question of this ilk. If Johnson answers "We didn't" that opens up further questioning. If he ignores it, Starmer has made his point that the government isn't on top of the testing
If Starmer had asked, "how much contact tracing have you done this week",Johnson can just waffle. That's the difference between top barrister Starmer and Jez or Ed.
Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.
Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).
Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
The stand out for me was basically if you are under 50, no health condition, not a fatty, not front-line healthcare worker, it appears like the risk to you is absolutely minimal. Another 3 months, improvement in best practice, early diagnosis, perhaps drugs likes of remdesivir, we might really be talking that cohort of people have such a low risk from this, that is insignificant compared to the big traditional killers like heart attacks and cancer.
The big traditional killers tend not to to get you if you’re under 50, no health conditions and not obese, too....
This has it for the current point in time but doesn’t show how and when it has changed. What they show, now for last week isn’t what they show now, it makes no attempt to show changes in any meaningful way.
A lot of problems in there though - any future inquiry is going to have a field day with some of the bugs, it's not pretty at all under the hood. Somewhat worrying that something so obviously flawed had such a sizeable impact on our policy-making.
Some of the assumptions as to what affects the r0 appear way off, to me. Dangerous when you start fiddling around to see what would keep it low if you have the wrong figures to start with.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
Mr. Divvie, I have quite a lot of sympathy with the view that the UK's negotiating has been somewhere between comic and tragic.
However, the EU said for a long time the only off-the-shelf deal was Canada, up until the point the UK said that was fine, which caused the EU to immediately retract the offer.
I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.
The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
Well the Premier League needs to stop selling the regional TV rights to the hated Qataris, there’s plenty of Saudis and Emiratis with an interest in the PL who will happily pay for the rights in a positive way, rather than seeking to use them as political leverage in their Sunni v Shia war.
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
Move on mate you are fixated on Jezza
Aren't we all? He did deliver us a Johnson landslide that we have to live with for the next four years.
I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.
The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
Well the Premier League needs to stop selling the regional TV rights to the hated Qataris, there’s plenty of Saudis and Emiratis with an interest in the PL who will happily pay for the rights in a positive way, rather than seeking to use them as political leverage in their Sunni v Shia war.
The Saudis and Emiratis should bid more then. I suspect it's this issue that is going to hold up and potentially destroy the takeoff bid.
Some of the assumptions as to what affects the r0 appear way off, to me. Dangerous when you start fiddling around to see what would keep it low if you have the wrong figures to start with.
Yep. Even more basic stuff though - when they tried to multicore it to speed things up, it gave wildly different results. Gulp.
The research team estimated that 72% people of infected with Covid-19 on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship remained asymptomatic .
Guardian blog
Have we ever seen a pattern in the reported numbers for the asymptomatic cases - there *seem* to be reliable reports of numbers that are all over the place.
I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.
The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
Well the Premier League needs to stop selling the regional TV rights to the hated Qataris, there’s plenty of Saudis and Emiratis with an interest in the PL who will happily pay for the rights in a positive way, rather than seeking to use them as political leverage in their Sunni v Shia war.
The Saudis and Emiratis should bid more then. I suspect it's this issue that is going to hold up and potentially destroy the takeoff bid.
Nah, it will go through no problem, just delayed—the rules don't allow them to say no. The new owners are not concerned at all by all accounts.
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
He must have turned it off immediately prior to the scientists warning about making comparisons.
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
Move on mate you are fixated on Jezza
Aren't we all? He did deliver us a Johnson landslide that we have to live with for the next four years.
Remember that what did for IDS was not public perception -- the Conservative Party did rather well at elections under IDS -- it was the crushing of Tory backbench morale when every week their champion was carried out on his shield.
That is the danger for Boris. Not that the public is entranced by Starmer but that Conservative MPs see the PM lose most weeks and start to flirt with the idea of Rishi Sunak in Number 10.
I think that that is a good point.
Except that IDS was and is as thick as mince, very slow on his feet and was trying to deal with Blair in his pomp. Boris is not stupid, quite good on his feet and Starmer is no Blair. Yes, he will get the better of Boris sometimes, yes Boris will bluster but the kind of embarrassment that IDS generated is a very long way off and unlikely to happen to either of these 2.
IDS even led Labour in a few polls by 2003, personality wise he was quite close to Starmer, dull as ditchwater but seen as decent.
Boris is far more like Blair, a charismatic flashman.
The question is whether Covid and hard Brexit turns out to be Boris' Iraq War?
Niche view, I sense, but I don't think he will be doing Hard Brexit. Deal or extension IMO.
Boxed himself into a corner with his "renegotiation" of the Withdrawal Agreement. Northern Ireland situation is going to get very messy and he has done absolutely zero to mitigate it. In any case there is no soft Brexit available. It's very hard Brexit or car crash.
I just can't see us going from frictionless trade to basic WTO. It would be bonkers. Course, Johnson would still do it if it brought him some big and lasting political gain - but I can't see that either. So I'm thinking a cobbled together halfway house deal or (maybe more likely) an extension to the transition. I thought this even before the virus.
these guys are stupid enough to cut off their nose to spite their face. I think they actually think the UK is top class rather than second rate. We will pay dearly for their hubris.
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
If the overall infection rate is falling, then at some point everyone with symptoms in the eligible categories will be getting a test. Unless the gatekeeping stops them.
I think Starmer's technique works well in the current, deathly quiet HoC - how it fares in the rowdier more lively chamber may be another matter. I also agree with Mr Navabi - when he goes too far into detail it can come across as nit-picking. Versus a catastrophically low base however, a distinct improvement.
Starmer tied the PM up in knots with Matt "Mind your tone woman" Hancock absolutely staring daggers further down the treasury bench. Its one thing to waffle about how many tests you claim to be doing. Its another to get past a QC who can throw your own official stats back at you.
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
Move on mate you are fixated on Jezza
Aren't we all? He did deliver us a Johnson landslide that we have to live with for the next four years.
I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.
The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
Well the Premier League needs to stop selling the regional TV rights to the hated Qataris, there’s plenty of Saudis and Emiratis with an interest in the PL who will happily pay for the rights in a positive way, rather than seeking to use them as political leverage in their Sunni v Shia war.
The Saudis and Emiratis should bid more then. I suspect it's this issue that is going to hold up and potentially destroy the takeoff bid.
The Emiratis used to own the rights, via Abu Dhabi Sports. The Qataris (BeIn Sports, subsidiary of Al Jazeera) won them by bidding substantially more than could ever be made back in subscriptions, purely to use the rights as political leverage in a trade dispute. For several weeks none of the Gulf states outside Qatar had any PL football at all. That’s why the Saudis, lets say tolerated, the pirate stations rebroadcasting the Qatari-owned channels.
I’m sure it will get sorted, and probably not in favour of the Qataris. The PL will sell the rights to the Saudis or Emiratis for the same price the Qataris are paying, and the broadcaster will black out the relatively tiny Qatari domestic market.
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
More desperate spin . Dreadful figures , tests going down and confirmed cases going up. The all cause mortality would show just how abysmal this government has done .
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Their view of engagement is us signing on the dotted line to whatever they want.
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
Do you agree with BJ that the UK has succeeded in avoiding the tragedy seen elsewhere in the world?
He didn't say that.
'We've so far succeeded in the first and most important task that we set ourselves as a nation, to avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.'
Perhaps you can supply a translation for a simple Jock obviously lacking certain basic comprehension skills.
Apologies, I though you were referring to another comment of his. You are right of course. However, that seems pretty uncontroversial as a point by Boris; we haven't had the overwhelming of the health service seen in Italy and to an extent in Spain and in parts of France.
Because we succeeded in letting people die in care homes instead?
There are major scandals regarding care home deaths in Itlay and Spain to my certain knowledge. I believe in other countries too.
Does that make our performance any the less excusable in any way?
Of course not - if you're concerned solely with blame go party! The point is that it explains there may be no unique UK failing here, which is what you are so clearly desperate to enjoy.
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
Well i suggest Chris Hopson on BBC at sometime around 4.35pm isnt making it up.
How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?
2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
Well i suggest Chris Hopson on BBC at sometime around 4.35pm isnt making it up.
How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?
2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
A colleague of my wife's was tested over the weekend and didn't come in on Monday as the test was positive.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Their view of engagement is us signing on the dotted line to whatever they want.
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
So do nothing it is.
We've finally got to the stage that engagement and negotiation is seen as weakness.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Their view of engagement is us signing on the dotted line to whatever they want.
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
So do nothing it is.
We've finally got to the stage that engagement and negotiation is seen as weakness.
No we should engage, what we should not do is "engage". We should propose our own solutions. We should negotiate.
We should not capitulate and do whatever they want.
In Italy yesterday it looks like everybody either died (+369, 222 in Lombardia alone) or was discharged (+8.014). New cases are 1,444
369 seems pretty bad considering where Italy are (or should be) in their curve?
It was below 200 (apart the day Lombardia added extra hospitals deaths all at once) in recent days. Now 222 in Lombardy alone (compared to 95-63-42 in previous days).
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Their view of engagement is us signing on the dotted line to whatever they want.
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
So do nothing it is.
We've finally got to the stage that engagement and negotiation is seen as weakness.
No we should engage, what we should not do is "engage". We should propose our own solutions. We should negotiate.
We should not capitulate and do whatever they want.
Get back to me when those solutions are anywhere near emerging from the backside of the Tory party.
... I think we can be fairly confident deaths are not going to follow a linear trend (I'd like to see the theory that explains why they would!)
All other things being equal, with constant R<1 you would expect an exponential decay in the death numbers, but I can think of several reasons why you might end up somewhere between that and a linear rate of decline.
1. As experience with the disease increases you would expect the survival rate to improve due to better treatment protocols. 2. As pressure on the NHS decreases you would expect an increase in the quality of care, and an improvement in the survival rate. 3. As testing rates increase you would expect a greater proportion of new cases to be identified, which should reduce the probability of transmission and so tend to reduce R further. 4. Lags in the reporting of deaths will temporarily make the decline look more linear.
#2 could be a big one as there is some evidence that the NHS screwed up hospitalization criteria and that would make a big difference if recently improved.</p>
Sure, there are reasons to deviate from the default assumption of a curve with long tail -as you've set out - but my point was simply that linear is an unlikely solution as all the factors you mention would have to align perfectly to make linear the best approximation. It could be a curve with increasing rate of reductions in deaths if, for example, an effective treatment is developed.
More general point, any fitted curve is unlikely to be very predictive as - for the reasons you've set out - a whole load of important factors are changing all the time so past trends are not likely to be all that informative.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
What do you expect them to say, 'get your fucking act together, this is what you say you wanted'? Or just do nothing and hope the people that engineered this situation will against all precedent pull out a coherent, thought-through plan from their fundaments?
Their view of engagement is us signing on the dotted line to whatever they want.
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
So do nothing it is.
We've finally got to the stage that engagement and negotiation is seen as weakness.
No we should engage, what we should not do is "engage". We should propose our own solutions. We should negotiate.
We should not capitulate and do whatever they want.
Get back to me when those solutions are anywhere near emerging from the backside of the Tory party.
Already happened - not the Tory party though, David Frost is already doing that.
If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
What about mailing out a bunch of them to people who have expressed an interest?
They're already doing that and BJO whinged about that.
Yes from memory because they arrived without return details making them useless.
A few did. If it was vast numbers the media would be reporting it morning, noon and night. Instead it was one article on Sky News, saying some people on social media have taken photos on ones without return labels, and have been asked to bin it and been sent another one.
When you are sending out 10,000s a day and all they can find is handful of tweets, it seems unlikely this is a massive issue. I presume it was machine / human error, that the return label either didn't get applied or fell off.
The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.
Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.
And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.
If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
What about mailing out a bunch of them to people who have expressed an interest?
They're already doing that and BJO whinged about that.
Yes from memory because they arrived without return details making them useless.
A few did. If it was vast numbers the media would be reporting it morning, noon and night. Instead it was one article on Sky News, saying some people on social media have taken photos on ones without return labels, and have been asked to bin it and been sent another one.
When you are sending out 10,000s a day and all they can find is handful of tweets, it seems unlikely this is a massive issue. I presume it was machine / human error, that the return label either didn't get applied or fell off.
There are also delays. I haven't had my result from Friday. It went in the bin leaving the testing station just after 5pm. It is supposed to be ready within 48 hours but the email does say it takes up to 5 days in some cases.
If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
What about mailing out a bunch of them to people who have expressed an interest?
They're already doing that and BJO whinged about that.
Yes from memory because they arrived without return details making them useless.
A few did. If it was vast numbers the media would be reporting it morning, noon and night. Instead it was one article on Sky News, saying some people on social media have taken photos on ones without return labels, and have been asked to bin it and been sent another one.
When you are sending out 10,000s a day and all they can find is handful of tweets, it seems unlikely this is a massive issue. I presume it was machine / human error, that the return label either didn't get applied or fell off.
There are also delays. I haven't had my result from Friday. It went in the bin leaving the testing station just after 5pm. It is supposed to be ready within 48 hours but the email does say it takes up to 5 days in some cases.
I have repeatedly said this 100k a day figure on its own was stupid.
Bill Gates said it, with this disease you need to get your tests done and results returned within 24hrs, and be able to prioritise people like front line healthcare workers (before they can go spreading it too far).
Again, that is what happens in South Korea. The system priorities the right people, they get tested and results very quickly. The plebs, a bit longer, but not 3-4-5 days.
I sense an intentional dulling down of these briefings.
Likely wont continue after Sunday - or be less frequent.
There really isn't much to say at the moment. More deaths but at a slowing rate, less people in hospital, rinse and repeat. And fingers crossed this will be the case for the next 2-3 weeks, until it gets down to very low levels.
The big calls are lockdown roadmap and what Mr Yorkshire Tea is going to do about the various support schemes.
Letter from Johan Giesecke to The Lancet snippets:
Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms.
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them.
Letter from Johan Giesecke to The Lancet snippets:
Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms.
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them.
But we will have a wealth of knowledge on treatment of those severe cases, we will have built up the NHS to a point where it does not resemble a cross between northern Italy and Syria - and we will have the infrastructure to test and to isolate.
Letter from Johan Giesecke to The Lancet snippets:
Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms.
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them.
But we will have a wealth of knowledge on treatment of those severe cases, we will have built up the NHS to a point where it does not resemble a cross between northern Italy and Syria - and we will have the infrastructure to test and to isolate.
And we might just have a vaccine.
True. We are in the Micawber position: something will turn up. We hope.
More desperate spin . Dreadful figures , tests going down and confirmed cases going up. The all cause mortality would show just how abysmal this government has done .
As I pointed out on the day the UKG met its ambitious goal of 'administering' 100k test/day, liberally dishing out that many more tests may result in a higher number of them coming back positive, considering the delay between counting the tests and counting the results (average 5 days).
From early April to end of April the 7-day-moving average for new cases/day was 5k-5.5k, then moving down to 4k-4.5k for early May. Today they reported >6.5k, The coming days may be interesting.
For comparison: over the same period in Italy the numbers went from 4k -> 1.5k; in Spain from 5k -> 2.5k; in Germany from 5k -> 1k.
The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.
Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.
Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).
Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
We also need to keep in mind what “medical condition” means, as well. Mild diabetes, a touch of ashma, Crohns disease, etc - my impression is that all of these count as falling under the “medical conditions” category. As well as some unfortunates who only found out they even had a medical condition as they were dying of covid.
Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
Well i suggest Chris Hopson on BBC at sometime around 4.35pm isnt making it up.
How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?
2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
A colleague of my wife's was tested over the weekend and didn't come in on Monday as the test was positive.
BBC News now interviewing Director of Care for some chain of Care Homes who is saying their Care Home "cant get test despite trying many times"
If you truely believe there isnt the demand why is Boris promising 200k by 31.5.20?
Test and Trace is whats important going forward. That requires Capacity but crucially the ability to get quick result.
Lets hope whatever the current problem is its resolved soon.
Letter from Johan Giesecke to The Lancet snippets:
Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms.
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them.
German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.
There seems to have been a bit of hike in new cases today that was barely mentioned at the press briefing. Of course testing is up but it was been up at higher levels for over a week now.
The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.
Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.
And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.
Why stupid politics if the media fall for it?
It is a nonsense measure, and the public will see it as such. If the media runs with that stick, two things happen - they make themselves look foolish, and they divert attention from issues where the government really should be being held to account.
German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.
Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.
"We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."
The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits. The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
Ditto
The code for we are not happy campers & why won't you make any concessions?
German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.
Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc
Comments
"Why did the government abandon contact tracing?" is a good question of this ilk. If Johnson answers "We didn't" that opens up further questioning. If he ignores it, Starmer has made his point that the government isn't on top of the testing
If Starmer had asked, "how much contact tracing have you done this week",Johnson can just waffle. That's the difference between top barrister Starmer and Jez or Ed.
What's your estimation for the virus Owls ?
"Thats what your slide said yesterday in your press conference" was brutal and exposes the political spin/bluster. Jezbollah would have been too busy joining London Young Labour in passing tribute to IRA heroes and then shouting himself to orgasm to have picked up on what the slides were at the press conference.
However, the EU said for a long time the only off-the-shelf deal was Canada, up until the point the UK said that was fine, which caused the EU to immediately retract the offer.
What a complete plank Hancock is
Guardian blog
Swedish Britishness
This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.
Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
I suspect that slide will be a regular feature from now on.
I’m sure it will get sorted, and probably not in favour of the Qataris. The PL will sell the rights to the Saudis or Emiratis for the same price the Qataris are paying, and the broadcaster will black out the relatively tiny Qatari domestic market.
No demand increase eligibility whilst prioritizing NHS/Care Home staff
Long may we not "engage" unless its what we want too.
Most people are locked down, anyone who isn't is eligible. What more do you want to expand it to, be specific please.
New cases are 1,444
How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?
2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
We've finally got to the stage that engagement and negotiation is seen as weakness.
We should not capitulate and do whatever they want.
More general point, any fitted curve is unlikely to be very predictive as - for the reasons you've set out - a whole load of important factors are changing all the time so past trends are not likely to be all that informative.
When you are sending out 10,000s a day and all they can find is handful of tweets, it seems unlikely this is a massive issue. I presume it was machine / human error, that the return label either didn't get applied or fell off.
Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.
And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.
Likely wont continue after Sunday - or be less frequent.
Bill Gates said it, with this disease you need to get your tests done and results returned within 24hrs, and be able to prioritise people like front line healthcare workers (before they can go spreading it too far).
Again, that is what happens in South Korea. The system priorities the right people, they get tested and results very quickly. The plebs, a bit longer, but not 3-4-5 days.
The big calls are lockdown roadmap and what Mr Yorkshire Tea is going to do about the various support schemes.
snippets:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH 20200506 SM+CID_b39923be3659c2fb30edfd3afc814c90
Will be interesting to know how many people are actually watching them. I don't bother now.
And we might just have a vaccine.
From early April to end of April the 7-day-moving average for new cases/day was 5k-5.5k, then moving down to 4k-4.5k for early May. Today they reported >6.5k, The coming days may be interesting.
For comparison: over the same period in Italy the numbers went from 4k -> 1.5k; in Spain from 5k -> 2.5k; in Germany from 5k -> 1k.
The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.
Mild diabetes, a touch of ashma, Crohns disease, etc - my impression is that all of these count as falling under the “medical conditions” category. As well as some unfortunates who only found out they even had a medical condition as they were dying of covid.
If you truely believe there isnt the demand why is Boris promising 200k by 31.5.20?
Test and Trace is whats important going forward. That requires Capacity but crucially the ability to get quick result.
Lets hope whatever the current problem is its resolved soon.
How can he be that old FFS
I remember these. I used to collect match box labels.
More scathing just now on Sky about Peston than any "PB Tory" ever has been here.
Matches seemed to be made in Sweden or Gloucester.
Never whinged about tests being sent out just that they should be counted when processed
I reckon todays 6k positives will contain a lot from peak posting days at end of April that have now been processed.
Of course we dont know either way hence the whinging.
It is a nonsense measure, and the public will see it as such. If the media runs with that stick, two things happen - they make themselves look foolish, and they divert attention from issues where the government really should be being held to account.
Edit: I placed the bet based on the numbers in the Dail. It was the only feasible combination that gave a majority of over 60. Generous odds.
The code for we are not happy campers & why won't you make any concessions?