Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Grammar police can sod off. There is not textual analysis of the English language that support fewer over less.
Ordered some UHT milk online on Saturday, arrived this evening.
I ordered a replacement vacuum cleaner yesterday. Currys said that if I didn't pay for named day delivery then basic (free) delivery would come on roughly 11 May. Then they emailed today that it's coming tomorrow. Sweet!
John Lewis just as good often with better warranty.
Often true, but in this case they only had a different model to what I wanted for £30 more.
Although vast number Facebook every detail of "details about their social circles."
app right now.
joining in the plundering.
and therefore the individual cannot be identified in person I do not see the problem. I will use the app. That is a given AFAIC.
Especially since you can later uninstall the app and you can always disable bluetooth whenever you please. The government can already triangulate your position. Sharing contacts for a few weeks using a voluntary app that you can disable at any time doesn't seem like a major invasion to me.
Small beer compared with pubs being closed for months.
I like a good pub.
But I am baffled by the moaning about them being closed.
They're a means to an end, surely? I can buy in better booze than most pubs, and cook as well as all but the top gastros.
You don't go to the pub for the booze or the food.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Grammar police can sod off. There is not textual analysis of the English language that support fewer over less.
None. Zero. Zip.
Indeed personal preference for someone a long time ago has become a ridiculous internet meme especially here. Less is perfectly fine.
Apparently the Israel Institute for Biological Research reckon they have completed development of a workable antibody that will 'neutralize' Coronavirus in the infected and are looking for a manufacturing partner. Only time will tell if this is another one of the 'major breakthrough' stories that do the rounds every lot of days or whether they have something that can go into manufacture sooner and not later.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Sorry, can I blame poor grammar on Dyslexia?
Apologise for nothing your grammar was perfectly fine.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
So who owns the Bank of England, or gives them licence to create money to buy the bonds? Us. So what we essentially do is print money now and rather than take the inflationary effect on assets essentially mortgage those assets to ourselves and thereby conjure out of thin air liabilities for our children.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
I do wonder if Trump will just announce that he is going to take "reparations" from China by just unilaterally cancelling a vast amount of bonds China owns.
"They have cost us three trillion. So we will take it out of their bonds...."
I suspect
a) it would completely bugger up international finance and
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
So who owns the Bank of England, or gives them licence to create money to buy the bonds? Us. So what we essentially do is print money now and rather than take the inflationary effect on assets essentially mortgage those assets to ourselves and thereby conjure out of thin air liabilities for our children.
It risks some inflation and couldn't be a perpetual solution as opposed to a solution for what would otherwise be an economic catastrophe, but we are facing the risk of major deflation right now otherwise. Following the 1920 flu pandemic we saw a 20% fall in UK GDP and massive deflation too.
Printing money to avoid both economic catastrophe and avoid deflation right now is a case of two birds for one stone. Its a no brainer.
But its only to avert catastrophe, not a blank cheque for whatever wishlist people may have.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
I do wonder if Trump will just announce that he is going to take "reparations" from China by just unilaterally cancelling a vast amount of bonds China owns.
"They have cost us three trillion. So we will take it out of their bonds...."
I suspect
a) it would completely bugger up international finance and
b) be hugely popular with his voters.
Disastrous, stupid idea that we mustn't touch with a ten foot barge poll.
So I wouldn't rule it out that he'd do something so dumb.
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Definitely.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Definitely.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
It sounds like that is quite literally going to be the slogan from Sunday onward, should the Isle of Wight test not fall over.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Definitely.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
Or even better "Download the app. Protect the NHS and protect jobs. Save lives. Save the economy."
People more concerned with their data than their elderly parents who they shipped off to homes to be out of the way because they smell a bit and cramp their style and limit foreign jollies.
You really are a disgusting little shit and if I get banned it will be worth it.
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Definitely.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
Over the last 10 years people have become acclimatised to the idea of being tracked, traced, surveilled, etc, due to the availability of free goodies like Google Maps. I think if you'd suggested something like this before then — (assuming the technology was available in some other form, or whatever) — most people would have been reluctant to take part.
Although vast numbers of us seem prepared to tell Facebook every detail of "details about their social circles."
There are almost certainly thousands of people complaining on Facebook about the contact tracing app right now.
That people don’t understand how much data they are sharing is hardly an argument against opposing the state joining in the plundering.
If the info garnered is srambled and therefore the individual cannot be identified in person I do not see the problem. I will use the app. That is a given AFAIC.
Especially since you can later uninstall the app and you can always disable bluetooth whenever you please. The government can already triangulate your position. Sharing contacts for a few weeks using a voluntary app that you can disable at any time doesn't seem like a major invasion to me.
quite. the spooks already have access to *all* your phone trace data (and probably the bit stream, so what you say), and your banking transactions. There is a special team in all the phone companies/banks to help with this. I don't like it, but it happens.
"Healthy over-70s set to be released from strict coronavirus lockdown measures Ministers hoping to clarify rules for pensioners amid criticism that current guidance is confusing"
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
The Expanse is better on that than SW or ST as well.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
The Expanse is better on that than SW or ST as well.
I just shouted out loud at the TV screen when the BBC paper review presenter asked of one of the reviewers: "Do you think hugs and handshakes are gone forever?" Why do I keep watching this programme...
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Definitely.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
Or even better "Download the app. Protect the NHS and protect jobs. Save lives. Save the economy."
"Healthy over-70s set to be released from strict coronavirus lockdown measures Ministers hoping to clarify rules for pensioners amid criticism that current guidance is confusing"
I hgave an interest, of course, but the article is frankly confusing. The current guidance doesn't urge more than caution on healthy over-70s. The article suggests it did, but that the Government is going to be more relaxed because the over-70s group is "not static". Eh? There's only one wy I expect my cohort to cease being over 70...
People more concerned with their data than their elderly parents who they shipped off to homes to be out of the way because they smell a bit and cramp their style and limit foreign jollies.
Fuck off.
You have no idea about social care and the need for it.
I approve this message, and I wish your mother in law well.
I thought it might be interesting to compare the 4 largest Nordic countries (ie. all of them except Iceland) on Geert Hofstede's cultural dimensions to see if they might explain why Sweden has taken a different course on Covid-19.
Sweden is lowest on "masculinity", highest on "long-term orientation", and highest on "indulgence". The country is quite low on "uncertainty avoidance", although not as low as Denmark.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
So who owns the Bank of England, or gives them licence to create money to buy the bonds? Us. So what we essentially do is print money now and rather than take the inflationary effect on assets essentially mortgage those assets to ourselves and thereby conjure out of thin air liabilities for our children.
It risks some inflation and couldn't be a perpetual solution as opposed to a solution for what would otherwise be an economic catastrophe, but we are facing the risk of major deflation right now otherwise. Following the 1920 flu pandemic we saw a 20% fall in UK GDP and massive deflation too.
Printing money to avoid both economic catastrophe and avoid deflation right now is a case of two birds for one stone. Its a no brainer.
But its only to avert catastrophe, not a blank cheque for whatever wishlist people may have.
Surely the Spanish flu pandemic was mainly 1918 and 1919. The immediate aftermath of World War 1 saw a boom and high inflation followed in 1920 by heavy deflation via both fiscal and monetary policies. Then in 1921 came the Geddes Axe.
I am wondering if the "Second World ", apart from the unfortunate anomaly like Ecuador, may end up being the long term gainers. Educated population, decent healthcare, cheap labour and very youthful population.
That 61% good job Italy. 36% Spain is interesting. They seem to have been hit similarly. Any tentative explanations?
Also suggests that Macron is even more unpopular than Trump, if a credible non Le Pen opponent got to the run off he could even lose
Sadly. If and credible are in there. Had they occurred he wouldn't be President now.
Macron was much more popular in 2017 than he is now, I would even say there is a good chance Le Pen wins the first round in 2022, even if Macron still wins the runoff
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
It's one if my favourite movies and books. But theres a place for all kinds of sci fi.
I wonder if some people just take a gamble on trying to be the first major person to call for something so that whenever it happens, and even if it would have been wrong to go earlier, they can claim prescience.
That 61% good job Italy. 36% Spain is interesting. They seem to have been hit similarly. Any tentative explanations?
Also suggests that Macron is even more unpopular than Trump, if a credible non Le Pen opponent got to the run off he could even lose
Sadly. If and credible are in there. Had they occurred he wouldn't be President now.
Macron was much more popular in 2017 than he is now, I would even say there is a good chance Le Pen wins the first round in 2022, even if Macron still wins the runoff
Indeed the last Ifop poll has Le Pen winning the first round with 28% and Macron on 27%, though Macron wins the runoff 55% to 45%
That 61% good job Italy. 36% Spain is interesting. They seem to have been hit similarly. Any tentative explanations?
Also suggests that Macron is even more unpopular than Trump, if a credible non Le Pen opponent got to the run off he could even lose
Sadly. If and credible are in there. Had they occurred he wouldn't be President now.
Macron was much more popular in 2017 than he is now, I would even say there is a good chance Le Pen wins the first round in 2022, even if Macron still wins the runoff
Indeed the last Ifop poll has Le Pen winning the first round with 28% and Macron on 27%, though Macron wins the runoff 55% to 45%
Apparently the Israel Institute for Biological Research reckon they have completed development of a workable antibody that will 'neutralize' Coronavirus in the infected and are looking for a manufacturing partner. Only time will tell if this is another one of the 'major breakthrough' stories that do the rounds every lot of days or whether they have something that can go into manufacture sooner and not later.
It’s entirely possible. Producing it quickly in any quantity will be problematic, though. As perhaps will be actually delivering it in sufficient quantity to the lungs ? Have you a link ?
1. The idea that if somehow Sars CoV 2 was a weapon it was a terrible failure. This is just plain wrong and has next to no merit. It'd have been rather good. I did go through the concept a week or two back on here of sub threshold strategies and weapons that are designed to cripple and damage but not invite (due to the nature of the damage or the uncertainty of the source) a proportionate response. Its a well known concept and is something that plague warriors have understood for decades.
2. We do not know either way how the virus got into the human population, we just don't, we have conjecture we have what sounds right and logical but we do not have certainty.
3. The China issue is less about whether they couldn't mop up properly in their BSL 4 labs but how much they told the world, how much they withheld, how much they may have actually fed positively false information, why they appear to be behind public disinformation efforts and how much they've lost the head when someone suggests their handling of it needs looking into.
4. Trump may be a first rate clown that automatically reduces the credibility of anything just by opening his mouth but do not assume everyone around him including the US & Western Intelligence agencies are all clowns as well.
Perhaps not. But as this article points out, the odds are considerably in favour of a natural transmission route:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ There’s a simpler, if less flashy, explanation for the emergence of a new SARS. A study, published in 2018, of four rural villages in Yunnan province located near caves containing bats known to carry coronaviruses found that 2.7 percent of those surveyed had antibodies for close relatives of SARS. Thousands, if not millions, of people are exposed to wild coronaviruses every year. Most of them aren’t dangerous, but “if you roll the dice enough times,” Goldstein said, you’ll see a bad one....
I wonder if some people just take a gamble on trying to be the first major person to call for something so that whenever it happens, and even if it would have been wrong to go earlier, they can claim prescience.
It's a funny tweet to put out with #stayhomesavelives on your twitter name.
As an aside, just saw the news from France that they now know that the first French victim died of Covid-19 on 27th December. Well before anyone knew it was in Europe.
I wonder if some people just take a gamble on trying to be the first major person to call for something so that whenever it happens, and even if it would have been wrong to go earlier, they can claim prescience.
That may generally be true.... But this is IDS we are talking about.
I wonder if some people just take a gamble on trying to be the first major person to call for something so that whenever it happens, and even if it would have been wrong to go earlier, they can claim prescience.
That may generally be true.... But this is IDS we are talking about.
It is noticeable he has #stayathomesavelives above an article which encourages leaving home and potentially costing lives.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Nobodies will pay for it. We'll pay for its interest in perpetuity.
We're just biding time until we can get to the moneyless society Star Trek promised us.
Heresy discussing Star Trek on today of all days . . .
Voyager beats Chewbacca and the other clowns into a cocked hat.
I just watched The Martian, which serves as my occasional reminder that the creators of neither Star Wars nor Star Trek seem to have ever heard of certain basic principles of orbital mechanics.
The Expanse is better on that than SW or ST as well.
I'm currently reading book 6 and am really enjoying it. But I don't have Amazon Prime...
1. The idea that if somehow Sars CoV 2 was a weapon it was a terrible failure. This is just plain wrong and has next to no merit. It'd have been rather good. I did go through the concept a week or two back on here of sub threshold strategies and weapons that are designed to cripple and damage but not invite (due to the nature of the damage or the uncertainty of the source) a proportionate response. Its a well known concept and is something that plague warriors have understood for decades.
2. We do not know either way how the virus got into the human population, we just don't, we have conjecture we have what sounds right and logical but we do not have certainty.
3. The China issue is less about whether they couldn't mop up properly in their BSL 4 labs but how much they told the world, how much they withheld, how much they may have actually fed positively false information, why they appear to be behind public disinformation efforts and how much they've lost the head when someone suggests their handling of it needs looking into.
4. Trump may be a first rate clown that automatically reduces the credibility of anything just by opening his mouth but do not assume everyone around him including the US & Western Intelligence agencies are all clowns as well.
Perhaps not. But as this article points out, the odds are considerably in favour of a natural transmission route:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ There’s a simpler, if less flashy, explanation for the emergence of a new SARS. A study, published in 2018, of four rural villages in Yunnan province located near caves containing bats known to carry coronaviruses found that 2.7 percent of those surveyed had antibodies for close relatives of SARS. Thousands, if not millions, of people are exposed to wild coronaviruses every year. Most of them aren’t dangerous, but “if you roll the dice enough times,” Goldstein said, you’ll see a bad one....
Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens
Epidemics, Volume 10, March 2015, Pages 35-39
Whole thing is worth a read but think you'd be interested in their "Challenge 7".
7. Expand models for emerging infections to account for host immunity
Most models of emerging infections assume a completely susceptible host population, but this is not valid if parts of the population have been exposed to low doses of the pathogen or to less virulent ancestors or related pathogens. Those in frequent contact with animals may have been exposed to zoonotic pathogens such as SARS-CoV or influenza, and more elderly sub-populations might have historic exposures.
These partially immune groups can cause profound dynamic effects. Having a population fraction immune, or partially immune, can facilitate disease persistence by reducing the chance of extinction in the post-epidemic trough (Pulliam et al., 2012). If those most at risk of exposure to a zoonotic pathogen are those with the highest levels of immunity (because of multiple previous exposures), they could form an effective barrier preventing an infection from spreading to the rest of the population; such a pattern is seen for influenza antibodies in numerous studies of swine industry workers (Myers et al., 2006). Data from this scenario might also lead to underestimation of the reproduction number of the pathogen if it spreads into a population that is truly naive. Models could help distinguish between pathogens that fail to spread because their transmissibility is low in all humans, versus those that fail because of low transmissibility in the human population in contact with the reservoir. We need to understand when these effects matter, and how to identify them.
I wonder if some people just take a gamble on trying to be the first major person to call for something so that whenever it happens, and even if it would have been wrong to go earlier, they can claim prescience.
It's a funny tweet to put out with #stayhomesavelives on your twitter name.
This is going to be an interesting aspect of the post-lockdown messaging - in principle, there's no contradiction between the two, in the sense that #stayhomesavelives would still have been useful advice pre-lockdown and could still apply post-lockdown. The lockdown imposes extraordinary legal limits on people's freedom in order to compel them to obey the "stay at home" message but it's such a blunt instrument that, eventually, it's going to have to be replaced with a system in which people are allowed to manage their own risks to a greater extent. Unfortunately, they can only be granted the freedom to do so provided their own behaviour doesn't unacceptably increase the risk to others (the ethical justification for the lockdown is essentially that our own risk choices have knock-on effects on others - if you meet up with your friends, that isn't just a matter between you, but because it increases the transmission of the disease it affects others too who perhaps unavoidably have contact with you). So when the legal limitations on freedom to move and mingle have been lifted, there will still be both a personal interest in maintaining social distancing to reduce the risk to yourself and those closest to you, and an ethical injunction not to utilise your new-found freedom in a way that endangers society as a whole.
Once the police are no longer able to fine us for leaving our homes, will government or the mass media or society in general still be telling us "we'd rather you stayed at home if possible, please judge for yourself whether what you're doing is important enough to justify going out"? Or will the messaging be more "now the threat is over, it's time not to live in fear and get the economy moving again"? I think we'll be hearing a lot of the former for some time to come, particularly given the public polling showing how many people are keen for the lockdown to continue and how judging people are of others who are seen to be going out "irresponsibly". Which puts some businesses/employers in a tricky position: are they going to advertise "now our clothes shop/restaurant/gym has reopened it's time for you all to come and catch up" and risk a public or media backlash, or are they going to be more cautious and low-key, "please use our services responsibly, purchase online if possible" or whatever?
1. The idea that if somehow Sars CoV 2 was a weapon it was a terrible failure. This is just plain wrong and has next to no merit. It'd have been rather good. I did go through the concept a week or two back on here of sub threshold strategies and weapons that are designed to cripple and damage but not invite (due to the nature of the damage or the uncertainty of the source) a proportionate response. Its a well known concept and is something that plague warriors have understood for decades.
2. We do not know either way how the virus got into the human population, we just don't, we have conjecture we have what sounds right and logical but we do not have certainty.
3. The China issue is less about whether they couldn't mop up properly in their BSL 4 labs but how much they told the world, how much they withheld, how much they may have actually fed positively false information, why they appear to be behind public disinformation efforts and how much they've lost the head when someone suggests their handling of it needs looking into.
4. Trump may be a first rate clown that automatically reduces the credibility of anything just by opening his mouth but do not assume everyone around him including the US & Western Intelligence agencies are all clowns as well.
Perhaps not. But as this article points out, the odds are considerably in favour of a natural transmission route:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ There’s a simpler, if less flashy, explanation for the emergence of a new SARS. A study, published in 2018, of four rural villages in Yunnan province located near caves containing bats known to carry coronaviruses found that 2.7 percent of those surveyed had antibodies for close relatives of SARS. Thousands, if not millions, of people are exposed to wild coronaviruses every year. Most of them aren’t dangerous, but “if you roll the dice enough times,” Goldstein said, you’ll see a bad one....
Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens
Epidemics, Volume 10, March 2015, Pages 35-39
Whole thing is worth a read but think you'd be interested in their "Challenge 7".
7. Expand models for emerging infections to account for host immunity
Most models of emerging infections assume a completely susceptible host population, but this is not valid if parts of the population have been exposed to low doses of the pathogen or to less virulent ancestors or related pathogens. Those in frequent contact with animals may have been exposed to zoonotic pathogens such as SARS-CoV or influenza, and more elderly sub-populations might have historic exposures.
These partially immune groups can cause profound dynamic effects. Having a population fraction immune, or partially immune, can facilitate disease persistence by reducing the chance of extinction in the post-epidemic trough (Pulliam et al., 2012). If those most at risk of exposure to a zoonotic pathogen are those with the highest levels of immunity (because of multiple previous exposures), they could form an effective barrier preventing an infection from spreading to the rest of the population; such a pattern is seen for influenza antibodies in numerous studies of swine industry workers (Myers et al., 2006). Data from this scenario might also lead to underestimation of the reproduction number of the pathogen if it spreads into a population that is truly naive. Models could help distinguish between pathogens that fail to spread because their transmissibility is low in all humans, versus those that fail because of low transmissibility in the human population in contact with the reservoir. We need to understand when these effects matter, and how to identify them.
agree very worthwhile read. Point 4 jumped out at me as something that hadn't really struck me before and would explain the 'natural' dying down of this diseases. Buried in it is a truly critical observation. The most connected people (potential super spreaders) get the disease early, recover and become immune, so get taken out the spreader pool and so there influence peaks early then decays. If say 5% are hyper connected they get it early, do the damage, but then stop do the damage. In the jargon, these time bound non-stationarities are critical.
The twitter mob has been getting it wrong again? How surprising.
More to the point, Keir Starmer has been getting it wrong.
If the opposition doesn't talk about how badly the government has screwed this up and the press are on the government's side as well, the government can get away with the kind of catastrophic incompetence we saw right through March.
The twitter mob has been getting it wrong again? How surprising.
More to the point, Keir Starmer has been getting it wrong.
If the opposition doesn't talk about how badly the government has screwed this up and the press are on the government's side as well, the government can get away with the kind of catastrophic incompetence we saw right through March.
As an aside, just saw the news from France that they now know that the first French victim died of Covid-19 on 27th December. Well before anyone knew it was in Europe.
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
I do wonder if Trump will just announce that he is going to take "reparations" from China by just unilaterally cancelling a vast amount of bonds China owns.
"They have cost us three trillion. So we will take it out of their bonds...."
I suspect
a) it would completely bugger up international finance and
b) be hugely popular with his voters.
Disastrous, stupid idea that we mustn't touch with a ten foot barge poll.
So I wouldn't rule it out that he'd do something so dumb.
"My word is my bond."
If you start cancelling debts you owe for political purposes the world would become a very hostile place very quickly.
The Chinese government would retaliate by confiscating the assets of US firms. The Chinese would also - inevitably - want to build up their military to ensure they couldn't treated so poorly again.
Bad App News: It appears that little testing has been done on it in advance of the IoW trial, not yet a stable version for QA. Carefully worded responses around use of data.
Good App News: It appears that government are in favour of nudging people to use it, rather than attempting to make it in any way compulsory.
Surprised by the Spanish polling - where I live in the SE the government is not popular but most people approve of the lockdown measures and are very nervous about the relaxation measures. I think the poll may largely more general dissatisfaction with the Coalition. It may also be down to the enormous variation in the number of cases in different regions.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
As an aside, just saw the news from France that they now know that the first French victim died of Covid-19 on 27th December. Well before anyone knew it was in Europe.
That's a very interesting titbit.
I think it was the first case rather than first death, but still very interesting:
“He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket,” he said.
“He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.”
The man’s wife worked alongside a sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin, Cohen said. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China, and the local health authority should investigate, he added.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
It is clear that income tax is not going to pay for this.
Not yours. Your grandchildren’s perhaps.
Who are they paying back?
Whoever buys bonds.
And who is that? The Chinese?
The Bank of England.
I do wonder if Trump will just announce that he is going to take "reparations" from China by just unilaterally cancelling a vast amount of bonds China owns.
"They have cost us three trillion. So we will take it out of their bonds...."
I suspect
a) it would completely bugger up international finance and
b) be hugely popular with his voters.
Disastrous, stupid idea that we mustn't touch with a ten foot barge poll.
So I wouldn't rule it out that he'd do something so dumb.
"My word is my bond.".
Not a maxim Trump has ever lived by, or even understood.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
No
but you did write something like that here on PB on the 1st of January...
More to the point, Keir Starmer has been getting it wrong.
If the opposition doesn't talk about how badly the government has screwed this up and the press are on the government's side as well, the government can get away with the kind of catastrophic incompetence we saw right through March.
We haven’t hear much since R Reeves released her dodgy dossier of PPE Del Boys half of whom hadn’t even phoned up the government.
As usual the opposition will come from the right of the Con party.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
A London bus weighs less than 200 MPs....
Well, possibly, now Pickles and Prescott have been kicked upstairs.
1. The idea that if somehow Sars CoV 2 was a weapon it was a terrible failure. This is just plain wrong and has next to no merit. It'd have been rather good. I did go through the concept a week or two back on here of sub threshold strategies and weapons that are designed to cripple and damage but not invite (due to the nature of the damage or the uncertainty of the source) a proportionate response. Its a well known concept and is something that plague warriors have understood for decades.
2. We do not know either way how the virus got into the human population, we just don't, we have conjecture we have what sounds right and logical but we do not have certainty.
3. The China issue is less about whether they couldn't mop up properly in their BSL 4 labs but how much they told the world, how much they withheld, how much they may have actually fed positively false information, why they appear to be behind public disinformation efforts and how much they've lost the head when someone suggests their handling of it needs looking into.
4. Trump may be a first rate clown that automatically reduces the credibility of anything just by opening his mouth but do not assume everyone around him including the US & Western Intelligence agencies are all clowns as well.
Perhaps not. But as this article points out, the odds are considerably in favour of a natural transmission route:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ There’s a simpler, if less flashy, explanation for the emergence of a new SARS. A study, published in 2018, of four rural villages in Yunnan province located near caves containing bats known to carry coronaviruses found that 2.7 percent of those surveyed had antibodies for close relatives of SARS. Thousands, if not millions, of people are exposed to wild coronaviruses every year. Most of them aren’t dangerous, but “if you roll the dice enough times,” Goldstein said, you’ll see a bad one....
Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens
Epidemics, Volume 10, March 2015, Pages 35-39
Whole thing is worth a read but think you'd be interested in their "Challenge 7".
7. Expand models for emerging infections to account for host immunity
Most models of emerging infections assume a completely susceptible host population, but this is not valid if parts of the population have been exposed to low doses of the pathogen or to less virulent ancestors or related pathogens. Those in frequent contact with animals may have been exposed to zoonotic pathogens such as SARS-CoV or influenza, and more elderly sub-populations might have historic exposures.
These partially immune groups can cause profound dynamic effects. Having a population fraction immune, or partially immune, can facilitate disease persistence by reducing the chance of extinction in the post-epidemic trough (Pulliam et al., 2012). If those most at risk of exposure to a zoonotic pathogen are those with the highest levels of immunity (because of multiple previous exposures), they could form an effective barrier preventing an infection from spreading to the rest of the population; such a pattern is seen for influenza antibodies in numerous studies of swine industry workers (Myers et al., 2006). Data from this scenario might also lead to underestimation of the reproduction number of the pathogen if it spreads into a population that is truly naive. Models could help distinguish between pathogens that fail to spread because their transmissibility is low in all humans, versus those that fail because of low transmissibility in the human population in contact with the reservoir. We need to understand when these effects matter, and how to identify them.
A very interesting read. They might also add the rate at which the novel pathogen might susceptible to evolution through genetic recombination, and the implications of that for given viruses.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
A London bus weighs less than 200 MPs....
Well, possibly, now Pickles and Prescott have been kicked upstairs.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
A London bus weighs less than 200 MPs....
Well, possibly, now Pickles and Prescott have been kicked upstairs.
Why I think that Swedens no-Lock-down' approach will probably have less overall deaths.
Im going to try to make this sort ish, There are lots of caviats, and so on im going to skip over in the quest for brevaty but will reply if people are intested.
Two roads to heard immunity.
Swedish is split at the movement the virus is retreating in Stockholm and the surrounding county, but growing in most of the rest of the nation. theses two combine to give a overall R of below but very close to 1. The althoratys in Sweden think that 25% of the city has had the virus.
In NYC a recent anti virus study suggested that 24.7% of NYC have also been infected,
On the day that the anti virus test was done in NYC 0.11% of the population had died. by contrast in Stockholm it was 0.06% roughly half.
Looking at the death fingers from any contrary, but Ill use the UK, 157 people under 20 have died but over 10,000 of the over 80 cohort. How many people die is as strongly related to who (by age) gets the virus as any mesher. if you could work out how to get to 'heard immunity' levels by only young and healthy people getting the virus you could get though this with only a limited number of deaths.
There is no magic bullet that will do that for you, but by doing things like keeping bars open, where lots of young people go. and recommending old and sick people stay at home as much as possible, you can shift the dynamic sufficiently to make a big difference. if you confine everybody equally then it will spread equally in all demographics, there for lots of old people will get it and die.
I'm going to predict that Sweden will when this is all over have less deaths and not have trashed its economy. but facts will only be truly comparable in perhaps 12-18 months.
I'm going with the premise that a vaccine is over 6 months away and that lock-downs can not be sustained that long. and track and trace apps will be a delaying factor not a game changer. Therefor I suspect that heard immunity is going to have to be the thing that ultimately beets the virus, not all will agree and yes New Zealand looks to have done it without but is now stuck unable to open its boarders.
#grammar police
FEWER overall deaths....
Excuse me officer, am I allowed to say something like "less than 200 MPs"?
A London bus weighs less than 200 MPs....
Well, possibly, now Pickles and Prescott have been kicked upstairs.
Five Eyes network contradicts theory Covid-19 leaked from lab https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/five-eyes-network-contradicts-theory-covid-19-leaked-from-lab ... The sources also insisted that a “15-page dossier” highlighted by the Australian Daily Telegraph which accused China of a deadly cover up was not culled from intelligence from the Five Eyes network, an alliance between the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
British and other Five Eyes agencies do believe that Beijing has not necessarily been open about how coronavirus initially spread in Wuhan at the turn of the year. But they are nervous about getting involved in an escalating international situation.
On Sunday Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said: “I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan.”
No evidence was offered by Pompeo to back up his assertion but information has been circulating over the last month in the UK, US and Australia aimed at raising questions about the high security Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has long specialised in researching coronaviruses in horseshoe bats.
Stories have suggested that workers in the lab may not have always used full protective equipment, and that in one instance a bat urinated on a researcher who did not subsequently become ill.
But there is nothing to indicate a leak from the lab could have caused the pandemic, sources say.
Claims are even made that the virus was genetically engineered in Wuhan, although there is both scientific and intelligence agency agreement that there is no evidence for this...
More to the point, Keir Starmer has been getting it wrong.
If the opposition doesn't talk about how badly the government has screwed this up and the press are on the government's side as well, the government can get away with the kind of catastrophic incompetence we saw right through March.
We haven’t hear much since R Reeves released her dodgy dossier of PPE Del Boys half of whom hadn’t even phoned up the government.
As usual the opposition will come from the right of the Con party.
I thought the government was coming from the right of the Con party.
As an aside, just saw the news from France that they now know that the first French victim died of Covid-19 on 27th December. Well before anyone knew it was in Europe.
That's a very interesting titbit.
I think it was the first case rather than first death, but still very interesting:
“He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket,” he said.
“He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.”
The man’s wife worked alongside a sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin, Cohen said. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China, and the local health authority should investigate, he added.
... Our study presents several limitations. Firstly, due to the retrospective nature of the analyses carried out, medical records were not exhaustive and some relevant information might have been missing. Secondly, we are not able to rule out false negative results due to the sensitivity of RT-PCR19 and a technique of storage that possibly damage the quality of the samples.20 To avoid any false positive result we have taken all the usual precautions and we also confirmed it by two different, techniques and staff. Thirdly we restricted our analyses to only a few samples and we chose to limit the selected records to ICU patients with compatible symptoms and CT, even though most patients actually have mild symptoms. Fourthly, we restricted our analyses to patients with a negative multiplex PCR at the time even though cross contamination has been described in literature.9 Finally, we conducted a monocentric study in the Northern Paris area, which faced a particularly high burden in this epidemic.21 These limitations could explain why we were only able to identify one person infected with SARS-COV-2, in our population....
Despite these reservations it shows how little we still know about the virus.
Bad App News: It appears that little testing has been done on it in advance of the IoW trial, not yet a stable version for QA. Carefully worded responses around use of data.
Good App News: It appears that government are in favour of nudging people to use it, rather than attempting to make it in any way compulsory.
I assume IoW will be a comfortable Con hold once Cummings and pals get hold of the data for voter targeting on social media. I'm not touching this app with a barge pole as long as Cummings is in the govt.
The twitter mob has been getting it wrong again? How surprising.
Being out of line with public opinion doesn't make you wrong. More than half of Americans think Trump ("inject yourself with clorox") is doing a good job -- are they right too?
Comments
None.
Zero.
Zip.
Any tentative explanations?
"They have cost us three trillion. So we will take it out of their bonds...."
I suspect
a) it would completely bugger up international finance and
b) be hugely popular with his voters.
As I've said before on here, people have locked themselves up in their homes for five weeks plus, when commentators said it couldn't be done. Downloading an app to your phone?? A piece of piss in comparison.
Printing money to avoid both economic catastrophe and avoid deflation right now is a case of two birds for one stone. Its a no brainer.
But its only to avert catastrophe, not a blank cheque for whatever wishlist people may have.
So I wouldn't rule it out that he'd do something so dumb.
Especially when it is a case of "Download the app. Protect the NHS. Save lives."
"Healthy over-70s set to be released from strict coronavirus lockdown measures
Ministers hoping to clarify rules for pensioners amid criticism that current guidance is confusing"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/04/exclusive-healthy-over-70s-set-released-strict-coronavirus-lockdown/
Just more advanced technology....
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/COVID-19-in-charts-Japan-and-Philippines-dodge-explosions
Perhaps it will make the furlough payments a low interest loan repayable over decades.
https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/denmark,finland,norway,sweden/
Sweden is lowest on "masculinity", highest on "long-term orientation", and highest on "indulgence". The country is quite low on "uncertainty avoidance", although not as low as Denmark.
https://twitter.com/meggiefoster/status/1257356095607263234?s=21
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/306691
My girlfriend is on maternity leave and obviously she can’t take the baby to any groups or anywhere at all really. Could this harm his early learning?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls.
That was taken pre Covid though late last year
Producing it quickly in any quantity will be problematic, though. As perhaps will be actually delivering it in sufficient quantity to the lungs ? Have you a link ?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/
There’s a simpler, if less flashy, explanation for the emergence of a new SARS. A study, published in 2018, of four rural villages in Yunnan province located near caves containing bats known to carry coronaviruses found that 2.7 percent of those surveyed had antibodies for close relatives of SARS. Thousands, if not millions, of people are exposed to wild coronaviruses every year. Most of them aren’t dangerous, but “if you roll the dice enough times,” Goldstein said, you’ll see a bad one....
But this is IDS we are talking about.
Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens
Epidemics, Volume 10, March 2015, Pages 35-39
Whole thing is worth a read but think you'd be interested in their "Challenge 7".
7. Expand models for emerging infections to account for host immunity
Most models of emerging infections assume a completely susceptible host population, but this is not valid if parts of the population have been exposed to low doses of the pathogen or to less virulent ancestors or related pathogens. Those in frequent contact with animals may have been exposed to zoonotic pathogens such as SARS-CoV or influenza, and more elderly sub-populations might have historic exposures.
These partially immune groups can cause profound dynamic effects. Having a population fraction immune, or partially immune, can facilitate disease persistence by reducing the chance of extinction in the post-epidemic trough (Pulliam et al., 2012). If those most at risk of exposure to a zoonotic pathogen are those with the highest levels of immunity (because of multiple previous exposures), they could form an effective barrier preventing an infection from spreading to the rest of the population; such a pattern is seen for influenza antibodies in numerous studies of swine industry workers (Myers et al., 2006). Data from this scenario might also lead to underestimation of the reproduction number of the pathogen if it spreads into a population that is truly naive. Models could help distinguish between pathogens that fail to spread because their transmissibility is low in all humans, versus those that fail because of low transmissibility in the human population in contact with the reservoir. We need to understand when these effects matter, and how to identify them.
Once the police are no longer able to fine us for leaving our homes, will government or the mass media or society in general still be telling us "we'd rather you stayed at home if possible, please judge for yourself whether what you're doing is important enough to justify going out"? Or will the messaging be more "now the threat is over, it's time not to live in fear and get the economy moving again"? I think we'll be hearing a lot of the former for some time to come, particularly given the public polling showing how many people are keen for the lockdown to continue and how judging people are of others who are seen to be going out "irresponsibly". Which puts some businesses/employers in a tricky position: are they going to advertise "now our clothes shop/restaurant/gym has reopened it's time for you all to come and catch up" and risk a public or media backlash, or are they going to be more cautious and low-key, "please use our services responsibly, purchase online if possible" or whatever?
Fascinating.
If the opposition doesn't talk about how badly the government has screwed this up and the press are on the government's side as well, the government can get away with the kind of catastrophic incompetence we saw right through March.
If you start cancelling debts you owe for political purposes the world would become a very hostile place very quickly.
The Chinese government would retaliate by confiscating the assets of US firms. The Chinese would also - inevitably - want to build up their military to ensure they couldn't treated so poorly again.
What a clusterfuck.
Good App News: It appears that government are in favour of nudging people to use it, rather than attempting to make it in any way compulsory.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/04/revealed-governments-coronavirus-tracing-app-failed-key-tests/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested
“He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket,” he said.
“He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.”
The man’s wife worked alongside a sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin, Cohen said. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China, and the local health authority should investigate, he added.
As usual the opposition will come from the right of the Con party.
They might also add the rate at which the novel pathogen might susceptible to evolution through genetic recombination, and the implications of that for given viruses.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/five-eyes-network-contradicts-theory-covid-19-leaked-from-lab
... The sources also insisted that a “15-page dossier” highlighted by the Australian Daily Telegraph which accused China of a deadly cover up was not culled from intelligence from the Five Eyes network, an alliance between the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
British and other Five Eyes agencies do believe that Beijing has not necessarily been open about how coronavirus initially spread in Wuhan at the turn of the year. But they are nervous about getting involved in an escalating international situation.
On Sunday Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said: “I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan.”
No evidence was offered by Pompeo to back up his assertion but information has been circulating over the last month in the UK, US and Australia aimed at raising questions about the high security Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has long specialised in researching coronaviruses in horseshoe bats.
Stories have suggested that workers in the lab may not have always used full protective equipment, and that in one instance a bat urinated on a researcher who did not subsequently become ill.
But there is nothing to indicate a leak from the lab could have caused the pandemic, sources say.
Claims are even made that the virus was genetically engineered in Wuhan, although there is both scientific and intelligence agency agreement that there is no evidence for this...
The Australian DT is a Murdoch paper.
https://twitter.com/dkthomp/status/1256961177290182656?s=21
Was there much regret shown by Burns' fellow Tories or did they think he was a shit too?
... Our study presents several limitations. Firstly, due to the retrospective nature of the analyses carried out, medical records were not exhaustive and some relevant information might have been missing. Secondly, we are not able to rule out false negative results due to the sensitivity of RT-PCR19 and a technique of storage that possibly damage the quality of the samples.20 To avoid any false positive result we have taken all the usual precautions and we also confirmed it by two different, techniques and staff. Thirdly we restricted our analyses to only a few samples and we chose to limit the selected records to ICU patients with compatible symptoms and CT, even though most patients actually have mild symptoms. Fourthly, we restricted our analyses to patients with a negative multiplex PCR at the time even though cross contamination has been described in literature.9 Finally, we conducted a monocentric study in the Northern Paris area, which faced a particularly high burden in this epidemic.21 These limitations could explain why we were only able to identify one person infected with SARS-COV-2, in our population....
Despite these reservations it shows how little we still know about the virus.
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1257437580506935296?s=20
https://twitter.com/WesFlinn/status/1257064547589820416?s=20