Mike, how accurate have constituency polls proved to be in the past? Its a hell of a risk to decide this far out that the single number one most important issue at the next GE isn't going to the economy, but hey, its your money. For me, the warning about polling right up to the GE day should be that Libdem Cleggism bounce, the Libdems lost seats. Even at the moment of the exit poll announcement some folk found that news hard to believe, Iain Dale to name but one..... Iain Dale's Dairy - Are the BBC/ITN/Sky About to Have Egg on Their Faces? "So the exit poll shows the Tories on 307 seats, 19 short of an overall majority. Don't panic chaps and chapesses. My view is that by 4am this poll will have been shown to be wrong. It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true.
In 1992 the BBC exit poll predicted a Hung Parliament. We got a Tory majority of 21. Will histroy repeat itself? I wouldn't bet against it.
I'd like to see what the per centages were, but they don't seem to have been released.
UPDATE: Channel 4 report the per centages are 38-28-23."
Remember that both the same Ashcroft and Bown Survation polling of the marginals have had the Tories doing disproportionately badly compared with national polling - meaning that Labour will get a bigger bang for their national vote share.
I'm hoping for 5 more of the Bown Survation constituency polls before Christmas and we'll see if the same trend is portrayed.
"Remember that both the same Ashcroft and Bown Survation polling of the marginals have had the Tories doing disproportionately badly compared with national polling - meaning that Labour will get a bigger bang for their national vote share."
Potentially counterbalancing that is the fact that Labour did disproportionately well in 2010 when you compare vote share to seats: ie. they had a 1992 result in seats with a 1983 vote share. There must be a chance that that will be corrected to some extent in 2010, with the party getting huge swings in northern cities where they already hold most of the seats.
Remember that both the same Ashcroft and Bown Survation polling of the marginals have had the Tories doing disproportionately badly compared with national polling - meaning that Labour will get a bigger bang for their national vote share.
I'm hoping for 5 more of the Bown Survation constituency polls before Christmas and we'll see if the same trend is portrayed.
Hi Mike, hope you had a good day.
The thing is can we really trust these polls? UK polling has got a lot more sophisticated in the last 20 years as is well documented. I'd be rather more convinced if the polling was done by a major organisation.
A lot of silly predictions here, far too favourable to Labour...
Given there has been no real swing from Conservative to Labour, why will there be swingback? I'm not convinced we'll see Lab>Lib swingback in the same way. Most of those who've swung are not going to be persuaded back. You can tell from Clegg's strategy it's what he believes.
Did you miss the heavily laden sarcasm when I made the 'general' point about how little scrutiny the EU Parliament and its politicians get compared to those elected to domestic Parliaments? My point still stands, as the constant criticism and scrutiny of the Department for International Development at Westminster has proved in recent years. And it kind of is the EU Parliament's responsibility, just as the DfID is responsible for how their taxpayer funded budget is spent. From the article that AndyJS posted - "(Reuters) - The European Union should stop funding Palestinian civil servants in the Gaza Strip because money is going to officials who do not work, European auditors said on Wednesday.
As the biggest aid donor to the Palestinian territories, EU taxpayers pay a fifth of the salaries of teachers, doctors and bureaucrats in the small coastal territory, which has been governed by the Islamist group Hamas since 2007."
Nowt surprises me about the EU Parliament, gave up trying to understand how so many democracies in the EU let this Parliament and its politicians away with shannigans that it would never tolerate domestic Parliaments and politicians getting up too.
Bit flabbergasting to me that the EU has been paying the salaries of Palestinian civil servants who haven't been doing anything since 2007 to the tune of a billion Euros:
And it kind of is the EU Parliament's responsibility, just as the DfID is responsible for how their taxpayer funded budget is spent.
I agree DFiD is responsible for its actions as a part of the executive. As the EU Commission should be responsible for its executive actions in this case. Why you are seeking to blame the EU Parliament primarily is beyond me.
Oh here we go, life is too short Neil. If you cannot interpret my general point in the first post after I then flagged it up even more clearer in my second response, there is no point continuing with this debate. You love to pick at a scab that really isn't there. And like other posters who have been selected for this mind numbing honour so many times in the past by your good self, it not only bores the hell out of them, but everyone as well. Nite.
And it kind of is the EU Parliament's responsibility, just as the DfID is responsible for how their taxpayer funded budget is spent.
I agree DFiD is responsible for its actions as a part of the executive. As the EU Commission should be responsible for its executive actions in this case. Why you are seeking to blame the EU Parliament primarily is beyond me.
A lot of silly predictions here, far too favourable to Labour...
They can only be classed silly once we have the result. Beforehand they are all just predictions.
Yours has been noted as particularly silly.... I hope you're still around in May 2015 to be reminded.
I will be here in 2015 and have been here for most of this parliament where the Labour vote has been between 37-40 within moe for most of it. Bring on twelve months time, when we will be in the same position. Will be quite entertaining to see the realisation hitting home when people will wake up to the fact that the Tory Party are running out of time.
Still can't believe this guy had the nerve to stand up in front of hundreds of millions of people and pretend that he was a genuine sign-language translator:
Comments
Iain Dale's Dairy - Are the BBC/ITN/Sky About to Have Egg on Their Faces?
"So the exit poll shows the Tories on 307 seats, 19 short of an overall majority. Don't panic chaps and chapesses. My view is that by 4am this poll will have been shown to be wrong. It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true.
In 1992 the BBC exit poll predicted a Hung Parliament. We got a Tory majority of 21. Will histroy repeat itself? I wouldn't bet against it.
I'd like to see what the per centages were, but they don't seem to have been released.
UPDATE: Channel 4 report the per centages are 38-28-23."
Potentially counterbalancing that is the fact that Labour did disproportionately well in 2010 when you compare vote share to seats: ie. they had a 1992 result in seats with a 1983 vote share. There must be a chance that that will be corrected to some extent in 2010, with the party getting huge swings in northern cities where they already hold most of the seats.
The thing is can we really trust these polls? UK polling has got a lot more sophisticated in the last 20 years as is well documented. I'd be rather more convinced if the polling was done by a major organisation.
Labour 37%
Con 32%
Lib Dem 10%
Ukip 12%
Workable Labour majority
From the article that AndyJS posted - "(Reuters) - The European Union should stop funding Palestinian civil servants in the Gaza Strip because money is going to officials who do not work, European auditors said on Wednesday.
As the biggest aid donor to the Palestinian territories, EU taxpayers pay a fifth of the salaries of teachers, doctors and bureaucrats in the small coastal territory, which has been governed by the Islamist group Hamas since 2007."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25344219
The British company "National Grid plc" provides electricity to customers in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Grid_plc#United_States
https://mobile.twitter.com/UKELECTIONS2015
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpPvGP_GUXs