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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New COVID19 polling finds two thirds of Brits saying that the

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  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eristdoof said:

    But according to Contrarian that is irrelevant because
    "The number of people who have died in hospital from Corona with no pre-existing condition is 250 from age 0-60. Even for 0-80 its under 750. Out of 20,000."
    Those are facts, not conjecture. I'm sorry if its a fact that you are uncomfortable with, given what we are doing to our economy, but its a fact nevertheless

    Plus, as I understand, it, some of the children with this inflammation have tested negative for Corona. It may of course be Corona, but the link is not proven.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,288

    There is no debt figure that is unsustainable per se. Records of UK debt go past 250% of GDP without a default.

    It is the deficit that determines sustainability.
    Yes, I said that already. We cannot put a specific number on what level of debt is unsustainable. But nevertheless we agree that at some level it would be.

    Which means both the deficit AND the level of debt is relevant.

    I can do no more, Philip. Thanks for the exchange. It was worth having.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eristdoof said:

    Better to wear one which has no blood on it.
    I don't know, if I saw someone with a bloody mask I'd socially distance from them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    I haven't watched the news for a while because it's extremely depressing. The first item. "674 deaths in the last 24 hours". No they fucking weren't. They were reported in the last 24 hours you idiots. This is causing a lot of unnecessary angst among people who think the death rate isn't going down.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Interesting stats on public trust for info on COVID - people trust the NHS (81%), Scottish Government (70%), the Welsh Government (56%), the British government (54%), the BBC (52%), Ch 4 (50%), and none of the print media, though the Guardian (39%) and FT (38%) are miles ahead of the rest (Mail 21%, the Sun 14%). I suspect most of us will find some of these figures surprising. Broadly, the media ratings correlate with seriousness of tone.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Pulpstar said:
    JFK is alive and having a lie down.
    JFK has been shot and mortally wounded.

    At a key moment both statements were true, but one was somewhat
    missing the point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    MaxPB said:

    I haven't watched the news for a while because it's extremely depressing. The first item. "674 deaths in the last 24 hours". No they fucking weren't. They were reported in the last 24 hours you idiots. This is causing a lot of unnecessary angst among people who think the death rate isn't going down.

    Does it make much difference? As the rate begins to fall both the daily reported deaths and the deaths ler day will fall on average, with day to day fluctuations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,925
    The Russian PM has coronavirus.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Pulpstar said:

    81611 tests is very good. Pound for pound more than Germany !

    We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    The value of an asset does indeed depend on expected returns. So if an annual tax is levied on a property - where before there was no such tax - it's value will indeed fall.

    But the question was - why does this mean that the tax will not raise lots of money for HMRC?
    Taxing a falling asset value will necessitate an increase in the tax rate which will compound the loss in value and create a negative feedback loop. Wealth taxes only make sense to push behaviour change, not to raise money as people shift money into an untaxed asset class (and eventually overseas to tax havens).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    Pulpstar said:
    Apart from that accentuate the positive vibe v. the let's err on the side of caution thing. That difference is important in a government that governs by briefing, 'sources' and letting others interpret nuances.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,858

    Interesting stats on public trust for info on COVID - people trust the NHS (81%), Scottish Government (70%), the Welsh Government (56%), the British government (54%), the BBC (52%), Ch 4 (50%), and none of the print media, though the Guardian (39%) and FT (38%) are miles ahead of the rest (Mail 21%, the Sun 14%). I suspect most of us will find some of these figures surprising. Broadly, the media ratings correlate with seriousness of tone.

    That last statement would also apply to the presentational ambience of the respective leading ministers of the three governments. That 70% cannot be put down to Indy vs Union (unless that has changed far more than I expect). The very low fiture for NI Gmt is interesting too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    We should not have used a split infinitive.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I think it contradicts what some other studies have found.

    You really do have to cut Boris and other leaders around the world some slack when there is so much uncertainty about this virus.
    Yes, it's what I have been ceaselessly banging on. We know the square root of hee haw about this virus, anyone speaking with confidence about it is either an idiot or a charlatan.

    And worse our feedback times are very long for actions we take. It is why acting 'rapidly' now could be so disruptive and counter productive. You have to operate at the speed of your senses.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    edited April 2020
    MattW said:

    Love that Paris pop density is a model of the Eiffel Tower.
    A good reminder of how empty most of France and Spain are.

    Be interesting to see the US rendered this way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    The Russian PM has coronavirus.

    And i bet virtually nobody can name him...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343

    We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
    At 100000 tests per day tests per million will rise by 1500 per day, and I don't think 100k is the limit, it's probably double that within the next week or so. We're no longer miles behind in testing. Antigen testing only helps for people who currently have it testing people who had it would be completey pointless.
  • We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
    Can you quote each of their daily test figures please
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2020


    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.

    That's not right - that 81k is more than Italy (72k today), or Germany (~70k according to last RKI info I saw). Spain might be close to us, not too open with info - they were ramping up and have a smaller population. France doesn't publish dailies but are miles behind, I think I remember them aiming for 50k by end of the month, but dunno if they got there.

    Some of the smaller nations are doing huge amounts per capita though.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    It's ok to consciously use one according to Fowler.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    Foxy said:

    Yes our Paeds teams have pulled back some of their staff on redeployment.

    France and Italy are finding it too.

    https://twitter.com/PrachiSrivas/status/1255898319727009792?s=09

    https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1255891218581594116?s=19

    It is thought to be an inflammatory response triggered by viral infection.
    The mother of a local child posted a Facebook picture of her son's chilblain like red spots on his toes, which have since been diagnosed as a symptom of Covid.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
    Not for long -but you've got a few days to find another new metric to complain about.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863

    Can you quote each of their daily test figures please
    31k, 32k, and 30k tests per million pop respectively.

    Figure for the UK is 12k test per million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    According to the PM the UK avoided the tragedy that has hit other countries !

    So it’s all been a great success ! 2nd worst in Europe for deaths ! And thankfully they didn’t show all cause mortality which he said was a better indicator as that’s even worse !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,789
    I hope this is right, but I thought he said he does not like the word austerity, rather than it will not happen.

  • 31k, 32k, and 30k tests per million pop respectively.

    Figure for the UK is 12k test per million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    That is not what I asked.

    Please quote their daily tests by numbers
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:
    Neither are the statements that Mundell has recently professed confusion about either.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    31k, 32k, and 30k tests per million pop respectively.

    Figure for the UK is 12k test per million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Scotland just 10,025 per million.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    Neither are the statements that Mundell has recently professed confusion about either.
    Lol Can you enlighten me ?

    I know he 'failed to connect'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    And i bet virtually nobody can name him...
    I got it wrong.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,386
    Shit! I almost would have taken Monday off as Bank Holiday. I'd seen the VE Day stuff but hadn't appreciated the change.

    I'm not particularly impressed by this, feels like another example of the forced commemoration that PBers have bristled against in recent weeks. Don't dick with my Bank Holidays.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, I said that already. We cannot put a specific number on what level of debt is unsustainable. But nevertheless we agree that at some level it would be.

    Which means both the deficit AND the level of debt is relevant.

    I can do no more, Philip. Thanks for the exchange. It was worth having.
    No! At no point is the debt alone unsustainable! We could sustainably have debt at 3000% of GDP if we were sustainably running a budget surplus and sustainably have 0.2% bond yields. At that point interest would be running at 6% of GDP and could be paid.

    What is unsustainable is the deficit which causes debt to increase compoundedly and interest can't be paid.

    Debt is relevant but insignificant. What is significant is our structural deficit, which is why our bond yields now are so much cheaper than they were a decade ago.
  • Surely the 100k tests by today target can't actually happen?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    31k, 32k, and 30k tests per million pop respectively.

    Figure for the UK is 12k test per million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    *cough* daily *cough*

    If they're testing 31k per million daily that's impressive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Witty uses a mac....he has gone right down in my estimation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,886

    A good reminder of how empty most of France and Spain are.

    Be interesting to see the US rendered this way.
    Here you go: the results of the American presidential election.

    Half the country by population votes red and half blue, but the state-by-state maps show the GOP won a far bigger land mass. That is population density, more-or-less.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Surely the 100k tests by today target can't actually happen?

    Probably a good chance there will be 100k tests on the 1st of May.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    nico67 said:

    According to the PM the UK avoided the tragedy that has hit other countries !

    So it’s all been a great success ! 2nd worst in Europe for deaths ! And thankfully they didn’t show all cause mortality which he said was a better indicator as that’s even worse !

    Thank goodness, I was feeling pretty depressed about what I thought was a tragedy directly affecting people I know and hundreds of thousands of others. Now I know I can just chill.

    I will also give anyone who uses the term Britain Trump a right old bollocking.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,067
    edited April 2020

    It's ok to consciously use one according to Fowler.
    Does Fowler then claim to inadvertently split an infinitive is not OK?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2020

    Surely the 100k tests by today target can't actually happen?

    Seems they found enough people wanting tests - eligibility has recently been opened up to everybody and their dog.

    Also some maybe slightly dodgy statpadding via increased multiple tests per person too, but I imagine that's not un-useful to have clinically wrt false negatives etc (Dr Foxy?)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,789
    nico67 said:

    According to the PM the UK avoided the tragedy that has hit other countries !

    So it’s all been a great success ! 2nd worst in Europe for deaths ! And thankfully they didn’t show all cause mortality which he said was a better indicator as that’s even worse !

    Yep, that is a very jarring line. He would be well advised to drop it.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,886
    Pro_Rata said:

    Shit! I almost would have taken Monday off as Bank Holiday. I'd seen the VE Day stuff but hadn't appreciated the change.

    I'm not particularly impressed by this, feels like another example of the forced commemoration that PBers have bristled against in recent weeks. Don't dick with my Bank Holidays.

    It is also a bit half-hearted. If we want to celebrate VE Day that should have been an additional bank holiday, not the old one on a different day.
  • Surely the 100k tests by today target can't actually happen?

    It is very close.

    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863

    That is not what I asked.

    Please quote their daily tests by numbers
    No need for that Big_G.
    I don't have the daily test numbers because Worldometers doesn't quote that but ask me tomorrow - I have captured yesterday's totals and will do the same for today's final totals. Then by a clever process of subtraction, I'll give you your answer. :smile:
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    It is very close.

    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment
    So if we do 99k on the 30th April (announced tomorrow) and 101k (announced Saturday) on the 1st of the May - did he meet his milestone ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,789
    This is all very silly. Neither side wants a deal badly enough to get one done. Both would be better off leaving these utterly pointless negotiations and preparing, as far as possible, for the consequences of that.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Where's the 80k test tweet, only one I can see has 50k tests.
  • We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
    I think it's fine that the UK has for the first time been able to do as many tests, that's a good thing.
    What deserves a little more attention, though, seems to be, to me at least, the remarkable success rate of these tests. The UK did a little more tests than Germany today and identified almost 12x as many new infections. I'd say that's something to think about.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,310
    Good to see Air Moldova still going strong:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/MLD906/246ddc41
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the 80k test tweet, only one I can see has 50k tests.

    Witty cant tweet as he's doing his lecture.
  • I expect by then we will be very near to Boris walking away unless they change their tune
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:
    I think the 30% who don't use public transport at all should be paid more attention. Some people bleat on about public transport as if we're all using it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the 80k test tweet, only one I can see has 50k tests.

    The tweet usually comes out at about 7pm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,048

    No! At no point is the debt alone unsustainable! We could sustainably have debt at 3000% of GDP if we were sustainably running a budget surplus and sustainably have 0.2% bond yields. At that point interest would be running at 6% of GDP and could be paid.

    What is unsustainable is the deficit which causes debt to increase compoundedly and interest can't be paid.

    Debt is relevant but insignificant. What is significant is our structural deficit, which is why our bond yields now are so much cheaper than they were a decade ago.
    What’s also significant is that no one has much idea what the structure will look like in twelve months’ time.
  • No need for that Big_G.
    I don't have the daily test numbers because Worldometers doesn't quote that but ask me tomorrow - I have captured yesterday's totals and will do the same for today's final totals. Then by a clever process of subtraction, I'll give you your answer. :smile:
    Thanks Ben
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The timing could hardly be better to walk away to be frank.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    It's just a result of their different styles, Sturgeon more cautious and Johnson more bullish. In the end it will be somewhere in the middle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    What’s also significant is that no one has much idea what the structure will look like in twelve months’ time.
    Indeed.
  • TGOHF666 said:

    So if we do 99k on the 30th April (announced tomorrow) and 101k (announced Saturday) on the 1st of the May - did he meet his milestone ?
    No but it does not matter
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389

    It is very close.

    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment
    And if he misses it a chorus of BJ boosters saying it didn't really matter anyway.

    Swings and roundabouts.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    No but it does not matter
    I disagree - he said we would be doing 100k tests per day by May - not the last day of April.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Next time some wanker tells me I should listen to Elon Musk I am just going to post this tweet

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960?s=19
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    eristdoof said:

    Does Fowler then claim to inadvertently split an infinitive is not OK?
    IIRC no.

    I donated my well-thumbed Fowler to some grad when I retired but I seem to remember he divided the populace into four: those happy souls who neither know nor care know about split infinitives, those who care but don't really understand them, those who know but don't really care, and finally the poor sods who feel they have to always (yes, I know) point out their superior knowledge by picking up any sign of a dreaded SI.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,252
    nico67 said:

    According to the PM the UK avoided the tragedy that has hit other countries !

    So it’s all been a great success ! 2nd worst in Europe for deaths ! And thankfully they didn’t show all cause mortality which he said was a better indicator as that’s even worse !

    Their metric is “ Did the NHS fall over” - and in that sense they’ve succeeded, while others have failed.

    As to the bigger question of “how has the U.K. done?” We won’t know for a while. Comparing crude published COVID deaths is a mugs game given you’re comparing apples with bananas. Longer term controlling vs population density and pre-existing medical factors (eg obesity, diabetes) will answer that question - and indicate future action - for example being more aggressive in tackling both.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is very close.

    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment
    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment barely mention it and bang on about something else instead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,343

    I think it's fine that the UK has for the first time been able to do as many tests, that's a good thing.
    What deserves a little more attention, though, seems to be, to me at least, the remarkable success rate of these tests. The UK did a little more tests than Germany today and identified almost 12x as many new infections. I'd say that's something to think about.
    Exactly. Testing capacity is very important but next most important is to get those infected people to stay home and ensuring they do. Either by putting them into government isolation for 14 days or by locking them into their homes Wuhan style.

    The former option would require a huge amount of temporary internment of the population but it would effectively wipe out the virus as it takes out a gigantic source of infection everyday. To my mind it's the way forwards, 6k people per day for 14 days minus any that need to be hospitalised. Remove >90% of viral spreaders from the population within 14 days.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Their metric is “ Did the NHS fall over” - and in that sense they’ve succeeded, while others have failed.

    As to the bigger question of “how has the U.K. done?” We won’t know for a while. Comparing crude published COVID deaths is a mugs game given you’re comparing apples with bananas. Longer term controlling vs population density and pre-existing medical factors (eg obesity, diabetes) will answer that question - and indicate future action - for example being more aggressive in tackling both.
    Indeed. We've all seen scenes of hospitals in Italy and Spain struggling to cope - that simply hasn't happened in the UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    TGOHF666 said:

    I disagree - he said we would be doing 100k tests per day by May - not the last day of April.

    What we really need to see is a consistent >100k tests per day, day in, day out going through May. If that's not achieved Hancock will be toast.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Will know tomorrow and if Hancock hits it or even goes over it, watch the media explode in utter disappointment barely mention it and bang on about something else instead.
    New obsession with be daily fluctuations in R value.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    The timing could hardly be better to walk away to be frank.
    You mean walk away from a protocol the UK government agreed to and is part of an International Treaty . It’s amazing the attitude of some Leavers in here .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    What we really need to see is a consistent >100k tests per day, day in, day out going through May. If that's not achieved Hancock will be toast.
    I would hope by the end of May, CV transmission will have be squashed enough that there wont be enough people requiring tests.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,252
    edited April 2020

    IIRC no.

    I donated my well-thumbed Fowler to some grad when I retired but I seem to remember he divided the populace into four: those happy souls who neither know nor care know about split infinitives, those who care but don't really understand them, those who know but don't really care, and finally the poor sods who feel they have to always (yes, I know) point out their superior knowledge by picking up any sign of a dreaded SI.
    And he notes that the “neither know nor care” are in a happy position because logic is not a friend of their critics. Isn’t it a deluded hangover from Latin grammar?

    Fowler is great fun - I love his description of Malapropisms - explaining that her followers are feebler folk, slipping in as single spies in an article, not whole battalions in a paragraph.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Not sure PBers will be learning much from the Witty talk.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,163

    We are miles behind in testing overall

    Spain, Italy Germany in a totally different league in terms of total numbers or tests per million population.
    What are their testing rates like, per day?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    You mean walk away from a protocol the UK government agreed to and is part of an International Treaty . It’s amazing the attitude of some Leavers in here .
    No walk away from trade negotiations given Barnier is still talking nonsense.

    The supposed prime risk of walking away was that the border couldn't cope with the traffic etc - no longer seems such a risk.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863

    I would hope by the end of May, CV transmission will have be squashed enough that there wont be enough people requiring tests.
    Don't hold your breath!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Indeed. We've all seen scenes of hospitals in Italy and Spain struggling to cope - that simply hasn't happened in the UK.
    The NHS didn’t fall over because people were not getting to hospital in time . Having loads of ICU beds available when people are dropping dead in their own homes or getting to hospital once their condition had deteriorated too much is hardly a success .

  • nico67 said:

    You mean walk away from a protocol the UK government agreed to and is part of an International Treaty . It’s amazing the attitude of some Leavers in here .
    It is a two way street and the EU are the ones making unacceptable demands
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863

    And he notes that the “neither know nor care” are in a happy position because logic is not a friend of their critics. Isn’t it a deluded hangover from Latin grammar?

    Fowler is great fun - I love his description of Malapropisms - explaining that her followers are feebler folk, slipping in as single spies in an article, not whole battalions in a paragraph.
    I suspect you are right re SIs. Mind you, not ending a sentence with a preposition is a sillier rule.

    And yes - it's a very witty book. Wish I still had my copy now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,539

    Don't hold your breath!
    Wise advice in general at the moment.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    I was pleased to see a graph of daily hospital admissions rather than the usual total number in hospital. I submitted a question asking for this, so perhaps someone read it and responded.

    I think this graph is more useful as it has less of a lag than the total in hospital or the number of deaths. Important when we are trying to keep tabs on R.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2020


    I would hope by the end of May, CV transmission will have be squashed enough that there wont be enough people requiring tests.

    ~2k daily infections estimated for then if current decay is maintained. Might be low enough for the contact tracers to take over - it's probably roughly comparable to what Korea was facing at their peak.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    RobD said:

    What are their testing rates like, per day?
    Answer for today coming tomorrow - see my post @6:30pm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,163
    New thread.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768

    Yep, that is a very jarring line. He would be well advised to drop it.

    I wonder which Countries he was referring to?


    Can PB Tories provide a list please
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What we really need to see is a consistent >100k tests per day, day in, day out going through May. If that's not achieved Hancock will be toast.
    Hancock has done a fantastic job through this crisis, as have Johnson and Sunak.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    Indeed. We've all seen scenes of hospitals in Italy and Spain struggling to cope - that simply hasn't happened in the UK.
    Because we have managed to spread what has been just as bad a scenario more evenly, both over time and by geography.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    Both unionist muppets in the one post, they rant and rave against Sturgeon and then when heap praise on Buffoon when he steals her ideas, pair of fannies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,288
    edited April 2020

    No! At no point is the debt alone unsustainable! We could sustainably have debt at 3000% of GDP if we were sustainably running a budget surplus and sustainably have 0.2% bond yields. At that point interest would be running at 6% of GDP and could be paid.

    What is unsustainable is the deficit which causes debt to increase compoundedly and interest can't be paid.

    Debt is relevant but insignificant. What is significant is our structural deficit, which is why our bond yields now are so much cheaper than they were a decade ago.
    Which only illustrates my point. At some stage on the torrid journey of UK plc from debt of 85% towards debt of 3000% - and almost certainly well before such a level is reached - it will become untenable. Budget surpluses would hardly be relevant unless we are postulating coming down to 3000% from an even higher level. Which is not possible since if 3000% is unsustainable, anything higher would already have been unsustainable and thus never reached.

    Botton line - both debt and deficit are relevant and significant. This is obviously true. Pretend it's not me telling you if it helps. Pretend it's Sunak.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I see we are finally tiptoeing towards, wear a bloody mask.

    We are and the only thing that has been holding that advice back is the lack of availability of masks.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    So if we do 99k on the 30th April (announced tomorrow) and 101k (announced Saturday) on the 1st of the May - did he meet his milestone ?
    Well done to Hancock if hits the target. It looked very unlikely at one time.

    However if the numbers then fall right back afterwards it will just look like a face saving PR exercise. Surely the idea was to ramp up to doing that number of tests every day so let's hope that proves to be the case and not just a big push for May 1st to enable the government to say it hit its target
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,925
    I've only just realised Penny Mordaunt is back in government.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863
    The letter doesn't contain one.
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