By far the most useful statistic we get is the weekly death count. A body is a body, and you're not reliant on anyone's view about whether Covid-19 is or is not involved.
Looking at different countries' "excess death" counts would be my preferred measure. We don't yet have enough international data to do this, however.
The problem might be that people are dying from other things because of the covid crisis
That's true. But:
I thought this whole point had been ended once and for all by the Excess Mortality stats?
The right policy now (or soon) is to ease lock down in line with a national, scaled up trace and test capability. Let’s see if the govt is in a position to deliver that in May. Omens so early have not been fantastic.
With regards to the economy, we will need to pump it back into life. Personally I would be advising tax cuts, and measures to support investment.
Longer term, the only way to go is asset wealth. 5% of housing wealth, payable on death, would raise a significant amount over time.
The government has committed to spend £lots (and through intransigence / incompetence have actually spent £less) and that will have to be funded somehow. And that was cash through to the end of June. We will need a lot more funding for a lot longer than that. Because "ah fuck it reopen the hospitality sector" won't actually make enough people resume status quo ante. "Stay home save lives" becomes ingrained.
Either the government parachutes cash and incentives to bring the hamsters from their cages to start consuming again, or large swathes of the economy and with it our way of life will close down. Which will cost even more in having to keep people from starving and rioting.
I note with bemusement the pronouncements from HYUFD who seems barely able to see beyond the end of his nose never mind see beyond what he very narrowly believes to be the interests of the Conservative Party. Does he think that the voters who gave Boris his big majority will turn out and vote Tory again if their town is destroyed by mass unemployment, shuttered businesses and rampant crime? "We can't tax the rich Tory voters won't stand for it" is a profoundly stupid read of politics - YOU might not stand for it. Normal punters care for themselves not Tory donors, they WILL stand for it if thats the difference between keeping a job and shops and bars and having uncaring gits close them so that they can keep their wealth.
Higher taxes are far more likely to slow growth and hit the economy and lead to job losses.
If you want higher taxes then vote Labour, that has always been the case. The Tory Party is the party of lower taxes
You seem to be ignoring the fact that we are not living in normal timers. I think you are due a re-boot from Central Office.
The Tory coalition at the last general election was built on rich voters in the South with expensive houses and working class Leave voters in the North and Wales and Midlands who wanted to deliver Brexit and cut immigration.
If you were a class war voter who wanted to hammer the rich with higher taxes primarily you were already voting Labour
The working class voters in the north and Midlands didn't just vote for Brexit to be done because they thought it was a nice idea, they voted for it because they believed that stopping immigration and leaving the EU (£350m a week for the NHS) was going to make them materially better off.
How is that going o be achieved by the next GE without increasing taxation on the better off?
As it will reduce low skilled immigrants competing for their jobs and reducing their wages
The right policy now (or soon) is to ease lock down in line with a national, scaled up trace and test capability. Let’s see if the govt is in a position to deliver that in May. Omens so early have not been fantastic.
With regards to the economy, we will need to pump it back into life. Personally I would be advising tax cuts, and measures to support investment.
Longer term, the only way to go is asset wealth. 5% of housing wealth, payable on death, would raise a significant amount over time.
The government has committed to spend £lots (and through intransigence / incompetence have actually spent £less) and that will have to be funded somehow. And that was cash through to the end of June. We will need a lot more funding for a lot longer than that. Because "ah fuck it reopen the hospitality sector" won't actually make enough people resume status quo ante. "Stay home save lives" becomes ingrained.
Either the government parachutes cash and incentives to bring the hamsters from their cages to start consuming again, or large swathes of the economy and with it our way of life will close down. Which will cost even more in having to keep people from starving and rioting.
I note with bemusement the pronouncements from HYUFD who seems barely able to see beyond the end of his nose never mind see beyond what he very narrowly believes to be the interests of the Conservative Party. Does he think that the voters who gave Boris his big majority will turn out and vote Tory again if their town is destroyed by mass unemployment, shuttered businesses and rampant crime? "We can't tax the rich Tory voters won't stand for it" is a profoundly stupid read of politics - YOU might not stand for it. Normal punters care for themselves not Tory donors, they WILL stand for it if thats the difference between keeping a job and shops and bars and having uncaring gits close them so that they can keep their wealth.
Higher taxes are far more likely to slow growth and hit the economy and lead to job losses.
If you want higher taxes then vote Labour, that has always been the case. The Tory Party is the party of lower taxes
Higher taxes will be inevitable and you need to accept it
You will have to accept you will have to vote Labour or LD next time if putting taxes up is your main priority.
Didn't Lamont and Clarke put up taxes a fair bit after the early 90s recession? I think they can both be solidly described as conservatives!
And what happened? The Tories were trounced 5 years later as many traditional Tories stayed home at the 1997 general election (though even Ken Clarke cut the basic rate of income tax from 25% to 23% by 1997)
Housing costs are by the far the biggest “day-to-day” issue for people trying to make ends meet.
Look at charts around intergenerational income is enough to make you weep for the future. The impoverishment of our younger generations is by and large the impact of runaway housing costs.
It’s no good some asking people to “work harder”. That fundamentally misunderstands what has happened.
Occam’s Razor points the finger at suppressed interest rates, about which it is genuinely hard to do much about, and restrictive planning rules. The latter is especially challenging in London and the SE.
Japan - also heavily densely populated - shows what can be done - but I doubt there is any political appetite to go as far as that.
However I can’t help but notice that even here in London Zone 2 probably 90% is maximum two floors and back gardens are de rigueur.
And whenever I look at Google Maps there appears to a massive tranches of land out East - toward Tilbury on the north bank and Gravesend on the south bank which could fit several millions of people if we really wanted, without upsetting the CPRE.
Most sensible thing Boris should announce today is that they are moving to a weekly review - 3 weeks is too long now.
Boris deserves some credit for not taking his paternity leave now. I do hope though that he is taking good care of his health. I would not have begrudged him another week recovering TBH.
Bollox , it would be a scandal if the buffoon took another two weeks off, he has been in for about 1 week since the election. Also given he spent years deriding paternity leave he would have a real brass neck to down tools yet again in the middle of the crisis , he has missed most of it already, a useless chancer.
Comments
Look at charts around intergenerational income is enough to make you weep for the future. The impoverishment of our younger generations is by and large the impact of runaway housing costs.
It’s no good some asking people to “work harder”. That fundamentally misunderstands what has happened.
Occam’s Razor points the finger at suppressed interest rates, about which it is genuinely hard to do much about, and restrictive planning rules. The latter is especially challenging in London and the SE.
Japan - also heavily densely populated - shows what can be done - but I doubt there is any political appetite to go as far as that.
However I can’t help but notice that even here in London Zone 2 probably 90% is maximum two floors and back gardens are de rigueur.
And whenever I look at Google Maps there appears to a massive tranches of land out East - toward Tilbury on the north bank and Gravesend on the south bank which could fit several millions of people if we really wanted, without upsetting the CPRE.