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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Tuesday PB Nighthawks cafe

So the lockdown conitnues and looks set to be with us in the UK for at least another three weeks. What is quite remarkable is how well the public, that is all of us, are putting up with it.

Read the full story here

IshmaelZ

1st

nichomar

Second

kle4

Yes, so far people have put up with it relatively well. We're probably well placed to manage through 8-10 weeks. Beyond that? I don't think anywhere would handle that hugely gracefully.

Freggles

People aware pulling together and making the best of it. Fatigue will set in, though.
I get quite cross seeing people flout the rules while we make sacrifices.

Benpointer

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

bigjohnowls

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

Indeed the Government and NHS have done brilliantly at ramping up capacity

bigjohnowls

I was hoping 12 weeks at home for myself and Mrs BJ would suffice.

Cant really see now how we can come out after the 12 weeks now in fact how can we come out before a vaccine is found

Depressing stuff

bookseller

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

eek

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

It depends how they get paid / take their pay. If they are paid via PAYE it's not a problem to use the scheme, if they take their money via dividends it's likely the furlough amount wouldn't be £2500 but closer to £600 or so.

squareroot2

bigjohnowls said:

I was hoping 12 weeks at home for myself and Mrs BJ would suffice.

Cant really see now how we can come out after the 12 weeks now in fact how can we come out before a vaccine is found

Depressing stuff

We will have to be exceptionally careful.even after the relaxation for at least 22 months after.

squareroot2

Sorry no edit available on.my phone. That should read for 12 months post relaxation .

bigjohnowls

squareroot2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

I was hoping 12 weeks at home for myself and Mrs BJ would suffice.

Cant really see now how we can come out after the 12 weeks now in fact how can we come out before a vaccine is found

Depressing stuff

We will have to be exceptionally careful.even after the relaxation for at least 22 months after.

I'm pinning my hope on a vaccine available by Xmas 2020

EPG

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

Not everyone has to be furloughed. It's only based on whether you would otherwise have work for the employee.

Though, as Peston blogged today, this means government cash is crowding out COVID entrepreneurship because of "the CBA factor"!

squareroot2

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

There is an upper salary limit. I read that its 50k

bigjohnowls

squareroot2 said:

Sorry no edit available on.my phone. That should read for 12 months post relaxation .

I think edit is broken

Benpointer

eek said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

It depends how they get paid / take their pay. If they are paid via PAYE it's not a problem to use the scheme, if they take their money via dividends it's likely the furlough amount wouldn't be £2500 but closer to £600 or so.

Why would they get anything if they take their money as dividends? Are you assuming they take a salary equal to their personal allowance?

bigjohnowls

Benpointer said:

eek said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

It depends how they get paid / take their pay. If they are paid via PAYE it's not a problem to use the scheme, if they take their money via dividends it's likely the furlough amount wouldn't be £2500 but closer to £600 or so.

Why would they get anything if they take their money as dividends? Are you assuming they take a salary equal to their personal allowance?

Yes i think thats generally what they do. No tax on that then less tax via dividends beyond that.

EPG

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

bigjohnowls

Off to bed got a 7am Sainsburys delivery tomorrow.

Only slot we have been able to get for over a week

Benpointer

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

"Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference..."

I do wonder if this is it.

Maybe there's a genetic marker that predisposes some people to a poor outcome regardless of the intervention.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52243605

Denspark

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Are the italian numbers , like the UK, just hospital deaths?

Just a thought that if the hospitals were packed to the gunnels how many people were turned away or never went to the hospital and ended up dying at home?

so the numbers look similar but one side has a higher number of home deaths than the other side?

Suspect we wont know till the statto's have had a chance to pull apart the mortality numbers at some point down the line.

AlastairMeeks

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Benpointer

bigjohnowls said:

squareroot2 said:

Sorry no edit available on.my phone. That should read for 12 months post relaxation .

I think edit is broken

It's working ok for me.

Edit: Defintely!

bigjohnowls

EPG said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

Its incredible they started off with 12,000 ventilators and still got overwhemed.

We started off with 5,500 and have managed to get up to 8,400 and have succeeded so far in not being overwhelmed touch wood so far

Luckyguy1983

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

That is the NHS. If it was punchier it would be the tagline.

Mortimer

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

Pro_Rata

On the relatively greater support for Lockdown in the UK.


It needs to be noted that the folk memory of the blitz and collective home front endeavour for good is common to remainers and leavers, even though we interpret it differently. Even if it has served us remainers badly in the recent past, it stands us all in good stead here.

The European folk memory, which in many places is of everyone being in the resistance: perhaps not quite so useful to current circumstances.

But, it is one point of difference amongst many other at least as practical things, good or ill, that we are doing to combat Coronavirus, so do not take it as an 'its the war spirit wot won it' comment - it simply helps.

bigjohnowls

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

I am told my local Trust is using 31 of 32 Ventilators on C19 patients today. Its initial ventilator capacity was 22 and it has ramped up by using those in Theatres but cant go beyond 32 due to pipe capacity

NerysHughes

Denspark said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Are the italian numbers , like the UK, just hospital deaths?

Just a thought that if the hospitals were packed to the gunnels how many people were turned away or never went to the hospital and ended up dying at home?

so the numbers look similar but one side has a higher number of home deaths than the other side?

Suspect we wont know till the statto's have had a chance to pull apart the mortality numbers at some point down the line.

Hospitals are not operating normally, they are only dealing with Covid 19, other very serious illnesses and maternity. Everything else has been cancelled. Also the number of people attending A & E is way down. This has led to a huge number of beds becoming available for use for Covid 19 patients, hence the NHS is coping. In fact many hospitals are much quieter than normal.

Wulfrun_Phil

bigjohnowls said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

Indeed the Government and NHS have done brilliantly at ramping up capacity

They have indeed. On balance though, there is a long litany of bad decisions and non-decisions to set against that. Tonight's UK roll call of 778 deaths in hospitals (alone) is once again the highest in any country outside the US. That's been the case for several days now.

Germany started in the same position as us and made the right calls. Tonight they are recording 100 deaths and their cases are on a clear downward trend.

Floater

New York City's death toll was revised to over 10,000 on Tuesday to include 3,700 deaths that are presumed to be due to the novel coronavirus but never tested, the city health department said.

"Behind every death is a friend, a family member, a loved one. We are focused on ensuring that every New Yorker who died because of COVID-19 gets counted," said Health Commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot.

The 10,000 figure includes all coronavirus deaths since March 11.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

Well done - stick at it!

TGOHF666

Lol

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1250179286675456000?s=21

bookseller

EPG said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

Not everyone has to be furloughed. It's only based on whether you would otherwise have work for the employee.

Though, as Peston blogged today, this means government cash is crowding out COVID entrepreneurship because of "the CBA factor"!

I think the CBA factor is definitely at play here...appreciate that a lot of jobs are being saved, but yes - there must be a lot of expertise and effort going to waste because, why not just take the money and soak up the sun?

EPG

bigjohnowls said:

EPG said:

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

Its incredible they started off with 12,000 ventilators and still got overwhemed.

We started off with 5,500 and have managed to get up to 8,400 and have succeeded so far in not being overwhelmed touch wood so far

Of course, it was super-heavily localised in Italy, and from there it hit other European regions roughly in proportion to the Italian population (I'm beginning to sound like SeanT here). So the national statistics are kind of misleading. Large cities connected to Italy + care homes + healthcare workers explain a lot of the overall positive tests in Europe. There are some places where the first two categories are not so common, or where they don't count cases in care homes.

bookseller

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

This is a lot of bookshops at the moment. And I can imagine part of you is very envious of your furloughed worker...

Pro_Rata

Based on 2400 ventilators / 4000 available for COVID patients and Italian ICU numbers, I back of an enveloped a distress point of 30 cases/100000 people

If we can now say 7200/8400 are available to COVID, distress point is closer to 100 cases/100000. On Sky's figures, we are close and concentration of most hotspots around core cities doesn't hinder in this respect.

bookseller

Pro_Rata said:

On the relatively greater support for Lockdown in the UK.


It needs to be noted that the folk memory of the blitz and collective home front endeavour for good is common to remainers and leavers, even though we interpret it differently. Even if it has served us remainers badly in the recent past, it stands us all in good stead here.

The European folk memory, which in many places is of everyone being in the resistance: perhaps not quite so useful to current circumstances.

But, it is one point of difference amongst many other at least as practical things, good or ill, that we are doing to combat Coronavirus, so do not take it as an 'its the war spirit wot won it' comment - it simply helps.

Agreed. This week the German Bundespraesident made it clear "this isn't a war, soldiers don't stand against soldiers". Whereas Macron was very clear it *was* a war.

This definitely is a war. And we have a wartime economy to prove it...

Benpointer

Pro_Rata said:

Based on 2400 ventilators / 4000 available for COVID patients and Italian ICU numbers, I back of an enveloped a distress point of 30 cases/100000 people

If we can now say 7200/8400 are available to COVID, distress point is closer to 100 cases/100000. On Sky's figures, we are close and concentration of most hotspots around core cities doesn't hinder in this respect.

And yet the Nightingale hospitals are hardly being used?

ukpaul

TGOHF666 said:

Lol

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1250179286675456000?s=21

Keep watching. I saw the play in the theatre and his 'guilt' is somewhat unclear.

Mortimer

bookseller said:

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

This is a lot of bookshops at the moment. And I can imagine part of you is very envious of your furloughed worker...

Yep - thank god for online, in short. We've just launched a new website, today, too - which was pretty good timing. My job as well as running the biz is largely the buying, travelling and pricing new stock - all of which is on hold at the moment given there is no buying or travelling.

Some of my competitors have simply shut up shop for the duration, everyone furloughed. But I can't actually imagine ever not doing some work. Rare books would be my passion if it weren't my job. The idea of furloughing myself seems unthinkable, and I'd definitely be the last to be furloughed...but if things get really bad, or it is a really long lockdown, I suspect many like me would have to for reasons of cash flow...

MarqueeMark

Captain Tom is at £3.948m. Looks like he might make £4m before midnight....

If he just keeps walking, we can fund the NHS on his donations alone!

bookseller

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

This is a lot of bookshops at the moment. And I can imagine part of you is very envious of your furloughed worker...

Yep - thank god for online, in short. We've just launched a new website, today, too - which was pretty good timing. My job as well as running the biz is largely the buying, travelling and pricing new stock - all of which is on hold at the moment given there is no buying or travelling.

Some of my competitors have simply shut up shop for the duration, everyone furloughed. But I can't actually imagine ever not doing some work. Rare books would be my passion if it weren't my job. The idea of furloughing myself seems unthinkable, and I'd definitely be the last to be furloughed...but if things get really bad, or it is a really long lockdown, I suspect many like me would have to for reasons of cash flow...

The only crumb of comfort I can offer is that you will be first out of the blocks when things get back to normal. And if things *don't* get back to normal, you'll have some sort of competitive advantage for having continued to trade.

You have to have faith that this is the right decision, and I wish you all the very best.

EPG

MyBurningEars said:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/04/09/adjusting-covid-19-expectations-to-the-age-profile-of-deaths/

It may well be that the news media narrative about Italy was wrong, outright overblown, or that we are simply used to the idea of mass death now. It is not unknown that Italian people discuss matters of public interest with great passion and emphasis. They also have a more crass / muckraking media, that takes a less patriotic line than the UK equivalents like the Sun / Mail / Times.

Pro_Rata

In Italy, overwhelming of the ICUs was very localised. Bergamo and one or two other places.

Gedi digital, an Italian tracker, has annoyed me by varying its graphs too much, but the regional variation in mortality from Umbria at 4% to Lombardy at around 18% is quite stark. (Bottom chart, at least today)

https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2020/coronavirus-i-contagi-in-italia/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I250551341-C12-P4-S1.8-T2

EPG

Charles Ingram's innocence is the conspiracy theory I think is most likely to be true.

Mortimer

bookseller said:

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

Mortimer said:

bookseller said:

One interesting observation - small businesses which have furloughed employees (to get their wages covered) but the owners are still struggling on and running a skeleton business operation. Are business owners allowed to consider themselves as 'employees' and thus able to furlough themselves at 80% of...whatever they would usually pay themselves?

This is basically me at the moment.

My packer has been furloughed and my shop/shipping manager WFH. So guess who did the picking and packing today?!

Luckily we're still doing about 30% of the business we usually do - so we can maintain this position and I can keep the majority of my staff on throughout. Just....

This is a lot of bookshops at the moment. And I can imagine part of you is very envious of your furloughed worker...

Yep - thank god for online, in short. We've just launched a new website, today, too - which was pretty good timing. My job as well as running the biz is largely the buying, travelling and pricing new stock - all of which is on hold at the moment given there is no buying or travelling.

Some of my competitors have simply shut up shop for the duration, everyone furloughed. But I can't actually imagine ever not doing some work. Rare books would be my passion if it weren't my job. The idea of furloughing myself seems unthinkable, and I'd definitely be the last to be furloughed...but if things get really bad, or it is a really long lockdown, I suspect many like me would have to for reasons of cash flow...

The only crumb of comfort I can offer is that you will be first out of the blocks when things get back to normal. And if things *don't* get back to normal, you'll have some sort of competitive advantage for having continued to trade.

You have to have faith that this is the right decision, and I wish you all the very best.

Thats really kind, thank you. And the same to you. Retail is tough at the moment, but the world was built by people who KBO!

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Indeed. The disparity is a very legitimate line of enquiry.

I don't think that it is brutal rationing of ICU/ventilators. Our age spectrum in ICU is not very different to other nations reports. Neither are Britons sicker or fatter, or not by enough.

I hypothesise, and it is just a guess, is that the stay at home and self medicate approach is causing a lot of late presentations, too far gone to reverse.

Countries that encourage early diagnosis and treatment may well be receiving patients a day or two earlier, less distressed, less hypotensive, and more amenable to recovery with supportive measures.

It could be possible to look at this by looking at admission bloods, oxygen stats etc, or by looking at time to death from admission.

If Boris had left it another day or two, before going to Tommy's, would he be pushing up daisies?

rottenborough

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Indeed. The disparity is a very legitimate line of enquiry.

I don't think that it is brutal rationing of ICU/ventilators. Our age spectrum in ICU is not very different to other nations reports. Neither are Britons sicker or fatter, or not by enough.

I hypothesise, and it is just a guess, is that the stay at home and self medicate approach is causing a lot of late presentations, too far gone to reverse.

Countries that encourage early diagnosis and treatment may well be receiving patients a day or two earlier, less distressed, less hypotensive, and more amenable to recovery with supportive measures.

It could be possible to look at this by looking at admission bloods, oxygen stats etc, or by looking at time to death from admission.

If Boris had left it another day or two, before going to Tommy's, would he be pushing up daisies?

Talking of oxygen stats, are any of the home oxygen testing monitors worth it?

rcs1000

https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/pregnant-women-without-symptoms-are-getting-coronavirus-study/

dodrade

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Based on 2400 ventilators / 4000 available for COVID patients and Italian ICU numbers, I back of an enveloped a distress point of 30 cases/100000 people

If we can now say 7200/8400 are available to COVID, distress point is closer to 100 cases/100000. On Sky's figures, we are close and concentration of most hotspots around core cities doesn't hinder in this respect.

And yet the Nightingale hospitals are hardly being used?

I'm waiting any day for Piers "virology expert" Morgan to attack them as white elephants and vanity projects.

rcs1000

EPG said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

In Italy, Lombardy has absolutely dominated the statistics.

MarqueeMark

MarqueeMark said:

Captain Tom is at £3.948m. Looks like he might make £4m before midnight....

If he just keeps walking, we can fund the NHS on his donations alone!

He made it already. Next stop £5m?

Foxy

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Indeed. The disparity is a very legitimate line of enquiry.

I don't think that it is brutal rationing of ICU/ventilators. Our age spectrum in ICU is not very different to other nations reports. Neither are Britons sicker or fatter, or not by enough.

I hypothesise, and it is just a guess, is that the stay at home and self medicate approach is causing a lot of late presentations, too far gone to reverse.

Countries that encourage early diagnosis and treatment may well be receiving patients a day or two earlier, less distressed, less hypotensive, and more amenable to recovery with supportive measures.

It could be possible to look at this by looking at admission bloods, oxygen stats etc, or by looking at time to death from admission.

If Boris had left it another day or two, before going to Tommy's, would he be pushing up daisies?

Talking of oxygen stats, are any of the home oxygen testing monitors worth it?

I think so. Mine was £15 so little more than a thermometer. I have checked it against machines at work and the accuracy is good.

EPG

rcs1000 said:

EPG said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

In Italy, Lombardy has absolutely dominated the statistics.

We should really be talking about Northern Italy and the rest, or even just Lombardy and the rest, when you compare to regions like Veneto. Admittedly, Lombardy is something like 50% greater Milan, but it is clearly affecting Bergamo and other parts as well.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1250112825273593863

williamglenn

Trump is laying into the WHO.

rottenborough

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Indeed. The disparity is a very legitimate line of enquiry.

I don't think that it is brutal rationing of ICU/ventilators. Our age spectrum in ICU is not very different to other nations reports. Neither are Britons sicker or fatter, or not by enough.

I hypothesise, and it is just a guess, is that the stay at home and self medicate approach is causing a lot of late presentations, too far gone to reverse.

Countries that encourage early diagnosis and treatment may well be receiving patients a day or two earlier, less distressed, less hypotensive, and more amenable to recovery with supportive measures.

It could be possible to look at this by looking at admission bloods, oxygen stats etc, or by looking at time to death from admission.

If Boris had left it another day or two, before going to Tommy's, would he be pushing up daisies?

Talking of oxygen stats, are any of the home oxygen testing monitors worth it?

I think so. Mine was £15 so little more than a thermometer. I have checked it against machines at work and the accuracy is good.

Thanks

CarlottaVance

Trump on - blaming the WHO and China.

alterego

rcs1000 said:

EPG said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

Italian ICUs were overwhelmed, UK ICUs are not, don't know about Spain, UK not. Death rate embodies a whole lot of things that are prior to the virus itself - UK people aged 80+ may be sicker on average than Italian people aged 80+ - or heavier - no Med diet. What did for Italy was that the ICUs were overwhelmed and people of all ages started dying.

In Italy, Lombardy has absolutely dominated the statistics.

IMO we are much more likely to find out post crisis when time and greater depth of data are available; more likely only, not certain.

fox327

People are used to being told what to do by the authorities and are trained to assume that they will handle any crisis, such as terrorists ("See It Say It Sorted").

In three months' time there will be more familiarity with daily admissions, deaths, and the routines of queueing at the shops, wearing face masks, etc.

I don't think the public are putting up with the lockdown out of acquiescence to the government. They are accepting it for now because they are too scared to continue their normal lives, but this will change in time.

Fysics_Teacher

EPG said:

Charles Ingram's innocence is the conspiracy theory I think is most likely to be true.

For me it’s Watergate.

alterego

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The NHS seems to be helping people die efficiently and in an orderly way. Process is outstanding, the outcomes not so great.

Indeed. The disparity is a very legitimate line of enquiry.

I don't think that it is brutal rationing of ICU/ventilators. Our age spectrum in ICU is not very different to other nations reports. Neither are Britons sicker or fatter, or not by enough.

I hypothesise, and it is just a guess, is that the stay at home and self medicate approach is causing a lot of late presentations, too far gone to reverse.

Countries that encourage early diagnosis and treatment may well be receiving patients a day or two earlier, less distressed, less hypotensive, and more amenable to recovery with supportive measures.

It could be possible to look at this by looking at admission bloods, oxygen stats etc, or by looking at time to death from admission.

If Boris had left it another day or two, before going to Tommy's, would he be pushing up daisies?

Talking of oxygen stats, are any of the home oxygen testing monitors worth it?

I have used one after being hospitalised with pneumonia in successive winters. I find it reassuring and have once self administered extra diuretics to pee more and get my numbers back in line. Trends are all.

Andy_JS

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Foxy

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

alterego

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1250112825273593863

Aren't there many different kinds of flu, presumably with different profiles?

alterego

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

I don't disagree, but a bit like the South Korean surveillance for contact tracing, are the British public going to be happy to pop down the clinic with the knowledge if they are found to have it, that they won't be going back to their comfortable bed, with 50" OLED tv, internet, Netflix, etc, they will be on a camp bed in a conference centre for the next 2-3 weeks.

I have a feeling a lot of people won't be happy at that prospect.

Floater

USA pulls WHO funding

alterego

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

How much can we trust Chinese data? Won't they want to paint themselves in the best possible light?

Foxy

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

A month later Trump was still calling it a hoax.


Clearly Trump was not monitoring its advice.

Foxy

alterego said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

How much can we trust Chinese data? Won't they want to paint themselves in the best possible light?

All countries do that.

Perhaps, just possibly, because of their previous experience of SARS, they knew the importance of strict measures, and had a worked out process.

That is why Wuhan is returning to normal.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1250171112681549830

Dura_Ace

Floater said:

USA pulls WHO funding

I reckon he'll definitely withdraw from NATO if he gets his second term. He'll replace it with a series of bilateral defence deals which means he can bestow or withhold favour on a country by country basis as whim dictates.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Is Trump just giving shout outs to companies now? Bizarre.

FrancisUrquhart

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Is Trump just giving shout outs to companies now? Bizarre.

He does it most days. I am actually surprised he doesn't have a NASCAR style suit with all the corporate logos on and a board behind him like they have when interviewing the footballers.

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

I don't disagree, but a bit like the South Korean surveillance for contact tracing, are the British public going to be happy to pop down the clinic with the knowledge if they are found to have it, that they won't be going back to their comfortable bed, with 50" OLED tv, internet, Netflix, etc, they will be on a camp bed in a conference centre for the next 2-3 weeks.

I have a feeling a lot of people won't be happy at that prospect.

Sure, but that is the way to manage the condition. The South Koreans manage to quarantine at home, but with much more monitoring. Most importantly have easy access to rapid testing, so that people know whether to isolate or not.

There are times where we really do need to learn from other countries, rather than re-invent the wheel, so that it is a British wheel.

SirNorfolkPassmore

FrancisUrquhart said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Is Trump just giving shout outs to companies now? Bizarre.

He does it most days.

It's going on for SOOOOOOO long tonight.

Foxy

eadric said:

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

How much can we trust Chinese data? Won't they want to paint themselves in the best possible light?

All countries do that.

Perhaps, just possibly, because of their previous experience of SARS, they knew the importance of strict measures, and had a worked out process.

That is why Wuhan is returning to normal.

Are you actually employed by China?

Are you denying that Wuhan is returning to normal?

SirNorfolkPassmore

FrancisUrquhart said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Is Trump just giving shout outs to companies now? Bizarre.

He does it most days. I am actually surprised he doesn't have a NASCAR style suit with all the corporate logos on and a board behind him like they have when interviewing the footballers.

He's clinically obese to be fair, but surely even with that he hasn't space for ALL these names.

Foxy

Goodnight all, another busy day ahead tomorrow.

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

I don't disagree, but a bit like the South Korean surveillance for contact tracing, are the British public going to be happy to pop down the clinic with the knowledge if they are found to have it, that they won't be going back to their comfortable bed, with 50" OLED tv, internet, Netflix, etc, they will be on a camp bed in a conference centre for the next 2-3 weeks.

I have a feeling a lot of people won't be happy at that prospect.

Sure, but that is the way to manage the condition. The South Koreans manage to quarantine at home, but with much more monitoring. Most importantly have easy access to rapid testing, so that people know whether to isolate or not.

There are times where we really do need to learn from other countries, rather than re-invent the wheel, so that it is a British wheel.

I don't disagree, my issue how will the British public react e.g. at the start we tried the please try and social distance, don't go down the pub etc and people for 2-3 weeks still carried on as normal, including bloody oldies who were most at risk.

So we have to go the enforced lockdown route (something clearly Boris really didn't want to do) and still today we have people playing cricket, having parties etc (albeit in fairly small numbers).

I can see a lot of people thinking I will just hide at home rather than having to go and live in a dorm in a conference centre. As a nation, we have become rather soft and we like our creature comforts. That was what the concern by the egg-heads that the public mentally just couldn't manage 3 months in total hard lockdown.

FrancisUrquhart

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Is Trump just giving shout outs to companies now? Bizarre.

He does it most days. I am actually surprised he doesn't have a NASCAR style suit with all the corporate logos on and a board behind him like they have when interviewing the footballers.

He's clinically obese to be fair, but surely even with that he hasn't space for ALL these names.

Crap documentary, but I envision something like this,

FrancisUrquhart

For all you zoomers,

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/over-500-000-zoom-accounts-sold-on-hacker-forums-the-dark-web/

Andy_JS

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

How much can we trust Chinese data? Won't they want to paint themselves in the best possible light?

All countries do that.

Perhaps, just possibly, because of their previous experience of SARS, they knew the importance of strict measures, and had a worked out process.

That is why Wuhan is returning to normal.

China is not all countries in my opinion.

brokenwheel

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

A month later Trump was still calling it a hoax.


Clearly Trump was not monitoring its advice.

Calling it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance", which is meaningless and doesn't trigger any real escalation in preparation, was done deliberately to avoid officially designating it a pandemic. To be fair this is not just about pressure from China, there's also the feeling they jumped the gun calling SARS a pandemic so quickly given it burnt itself out.

Both things can be true at the same time, neither the WHO nor Trump have covered themselves in glory.

isam

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

I’ve been thinking that if the whole of the media, Piers Morgan, every celeb who wants ‘likes’ on twitter, and state propaganda are onside, it must be overhyped. But not sure how

Now I’m seeing the whole thing as a kind of detective show on tv. I can never tell whodunnit while it’s being played out, but at the end they go through it but by bit and it all seems obvious in hindsight. There must be some known unknown that we just haven’t twigged yet

alterego

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

A month later Trump was still calling it a hoax.


Clearly Trump was not monitoring its advice.

This is one instance. I'm really looking for info on its track record generally and where that is publicly available. People are impressed by grand titles (BMA?) which often hide a truth.

EPG

I wouldn't report mild symptoms if the outcome were an indefinite stay in HMP Nightingale. CFR 0.1% among young people, dominated by diabetics and other immuno-suppressed people, I would take my chances.

alterego

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

I don't disagree, but a bit like the South Korean surveillance for contact tracing, are the British public going to be happy to pop down the clinic with the knowledge if they are found to have it, that they won't be going back to their comfortable bed, with 50" OLED tv, internet, Netflix, etc, they will be on a camp bed in a conference centre for the next 2-3 weeks.

I have a feeling a lot of people won't be happy at that prospect.

Sure, but that is the way to manage the condition. The South Koreans manage to quarantine at home, but with much more monitoring. Most importantly have easy access to rapid testing, so that people know whether to isolate or not.

There are times where we really do need to learn from other countries, rather than re-invent the wheel, so that it is a British wheel.

There is a cultural aspect in play here. I believe South Koreans have human rights as a lower interest than we do.

Richard_Tyndall

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

That was over 3 weeks after the WHO had been informed of the seriousness of the situation by Taiwan.

I don't actually agree with pulling the funding for the WHO. It needs reform not destruction. But it has certainly failed in its basic duties over this pandemic - which it is worth noting the WHO refused to declare until 11th March.

alterego

Foxy said:

eadric said:

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

How much can we trust Chinese data? Won't they want to paint themselves in the best possible light?

All countries do that.

Perhaps, just possibly, because of their previous experience of SARS, they knew the importance of strict measures, and had a worked out process.

That is why Wuhan is returning to normal.

Are you actually employed by China?

Are you denying that Wuhan is returning to normal?

Do you think China reports data accurately?

Mexicanpete

TGOHF666 said:

Lol

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1250179286675456000?s=21

That's as maybe. Darren Grimes of BeLeave fame also comes across as an unpleasant oik.

alterego

brokenwheel said:

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

A month later Trump was still calling it a hoax.


Clearly Trump was not monitoring its advice.

Calling it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance", which is meaningless and doesn't trigger any real escalation in preparation, was done deliberately to avoid officially designating it a pandemic. To be fair this is not just about pressure from China, there's also the feeling they jumped the gun calling SARS a pandemic so quickly given it burnt itself out.

Both things can be true at the same time, neither the WHO nor Trump have covered themselves in glory.

But I think Trump is much more already exposed than the WHO is - that's awful English, for which I apologise, but we are discussing Trump so .....

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1250193379490701319?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1250168740873986050?s=20

alterego

isam said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

I think the other remarkable thing is that we are not (yet at least) seeing pictures of people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of ICU beds.

That the Excel facility is hardly being used is surely a good sign?

Long may it continue.

I'm still trying to get my head around the apocalyptic footage we've seen in Italy and Spain, versus the apparent calm here, and yet the death tolls look like they'll come out broadly similar and our daily numbers look comparably bad.

Differential media coverage, particularly with respect to access to the chaotic bits? Or the coffins?

Do overcrowded ICUs and people not even being admitted actually make no substantial difference unless it's really really bad - up to a certain point perhaps only those with near-zero chance of survival, or those who were likely to get better anyway so didn't really require an ICU bed (but had one been free, might have been given one "just in case"), were missing out over there?

Do scenes look better here just because, although cases are somewhat concentrated in London and a few other places, they're still relatively more spread out than Italy/Spain?

Something else I'm missing entirely?

I've no idea on this one.

I’ve been thinking that if the whole of the media, Piers Morgan, every celeb who wants ‘likes’ on twitter, and state propaganda are onside, it must be overhyped. But not sure how

Now I’m seeing the whole thing as a kind of detective show on tv. I can never tell whodunnit while it’s being played out, but at the end they go through it but by bit and it all seems obvious in hindsight. There must be some known unknown that we just haven’t twigged yet

Patience.

Mexicanpete

Foxy said:

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

The right decision by Trump. The WHO is a joke.

Does anyone monitor its advice and consequences?

WHO declared it a "Public Health Emergency of International significance" on 23rd Jan.

A month later Trump was still calling it a hoax.


Clearly Trump was not monitoring its advice.

Yes, and beggaring belief we have educated PB correspondents praising Trump's decisiveness in withdrawing financial support from the WHO.

Utter madness, and not just from Trump!

alterego

EPG said:

I wouldn't report mild symptoms if the outcome were an indefinite stay in HMP Nightingale. CFR 0.1% among young people, dominated by diabetics and other immuno-suppressed people, I would take my chances.

You wouldn't want to shake hands with me, but I understand.

EPG

alterego said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

I really do think the Chinese funnel system is a better way to manage any further wave.

Fever clinic - Isolation hospital - bloods, CT scan and covid 19 swab - stay until discharge with 2 negative swabs plus 14 days quarantine - if deterioration then to Acute hospital.

The system breaks the transmission before the household all get it, thereby decreasing overall numbers, and cases that worsen get identified early and transferred.

That is how the Nightingales should be used. Obviously need better, faster testing too.

I don't disagree, but a bit like the South Korean surveillance for contact tracing, are the British public going to be happy to pop down the clinic with the knowledge if they are found to have it, that they won't be going back to their comfortable bed, with 50" OLED tv, internet, Netflix, etc, they will be on a camp bed in a conference centre for the next 2-3 weeks.

I have a feeling a lot of people won't be happy at that prospect.

Sure, but that is the way to manage the condition. The South Koreans manage to quarantine at home, but with much more monitoring. Most importantly have easy access to rapid testing, so that people know whether to isolate or not.

There are times where we really do need to learn from other countries, rather than re-invent the wheel, so that it is a British wheel.

There is a cultural aspect in play here. I believe South Koreans have human rights as a lower interest than we do.

Koreans are particularly keen on rights because they operated under a dictatorship for so long. They have a US-style left, including the current president, which is more than you can say for any other large Asian country.

alterego

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1250193379490701319?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1250168740873986050?s=20

I shan't be surprised if Trump gets re-elected and I suspect that not many people will be.