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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    I have never advocated borrowing or printing money though. I am happy for more government spending in certain areas, but from tax, not borrowing.
    Tax receipts are going to be a bit light at the moment though....

    As I say, exceptional times - not sure what choice they have.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    If I save £100 and then ownership of that £100 transfers to my daughter there is no “transaction”.

    Tax works best on the basis of governments receiving a share of the increase in value from someone’s efforts. Otherwise there is no incentive to build capital and wealth.
    Of course there is a transaction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178

    I think one of our motor racing greats deserves more empathetic reporting!
    He has passed the chequered flag for the last time?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Nonsense. Money goes round and round, and gets taxed as it goes. As your own post makes clear, there isn't really such a thing as "single taxation".
    That’s the point. Governments tax transactions. A transfer is not a transaction.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    malcolmg said:

    Exactly , it is just a big heavily subsidised club where these pigs swill back food and drink at cheap rates a few days a week , whilst pocketing big salaries, huge expenses and gold plated pensions.
    I've seen the Scottish Parliament. I remember that I kept looking for a while after I had found it, because I couldn't believe that in a city of such incredible, historic architecture, crafted by some of the all-time masters of the art, they had chosen to house their Parliament in a hideous sports centre...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Floater said:

    Tax receipts are going to be a bit light at the moment though....

    As I say, exceptional times - not sure what choice they have.
    ''|A bit light''.......LOL the understatement of the century
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Foxy said:

    It is rather difficult to get patients to turn up at my diabetic clinic at present. I cannot think why...
    It is interesting. I am sure that a lot of serious illnesses are going untreated as a result of the situation we are in. I am also sure that possibly an equal amount of A&E, GP, Clinic visits of a trivial and indeed time-wasting nature are not occurring. Both of these aspects are features of a free at the point of use and on-demand health service system. It is a great pity that one aspect cannot be permanently eliminated. That is the kind of NHS reform I would favour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312

    I think one of our motor racing greats deserves more empathetic reporting!
    https://www.grandprix.com/gpe/drv-mossir.html

    For Moss the manner in which the battle was fought was as important as the outcome, and this sporting attitude cost him the 1958 World Championship when he stood up for rival Mike Hawthorn, who faced a penalty in Portugal that would, in retrospect, have denied him the points that he needed to beat Moss. Stirling never for one moment entertained any thought of gaining an advantage in such a way, and in any case his natural sense of justice would not have allowed him to see Hawthorn unjustly penalized. So he stepped forward to defend him. Hawthorn subsequently went on to beat Moss by a mere point, even though he had only won one race that year to Moss's four.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Charles said:

    If I save £100 and then ownership of that £100 transfers to my daughter there is no “transaction”.

    Tax works best on the basis of governments receiving a share of the increase in value from someone’s efforts. Otherwise there is no incentive to build capital and wealth.
    What about those who have gained wealth without doing anything other than being born into the right family?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    It's not my fault the Scots can't organise a piss up in a distillery. Obviously there are "lessons to be learned".
    Apart from Labour ineptness, brown envelopes etc it worked very well. Cost a fraction of Westminster champagne budget and whilst I am no fan of the exterior design , the chamber is streets ahead of Westminster and it all works very well. Who would have thought a dense ultra right wing union jack loving lickspittle unionist would disparage it.
  • I've missed most of the debate this morning which is a pity as a topic close to me. I agree with the premise that the LibDems are going to struggle - their biggest error is leaving a pair of acting leaders one of whom no-one outside the party have heard of, and the other is the guy rejected by the party membership less than a year ago. To cancel the planned leadership election until 2021 is absurd.

    I wish them well...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,890

    Watching the video again to remind myself, I’m afraid one of the problems was Swinson. Unfortunately she just didn’t have “it”. I understand what she was going for - a grown up between Corbyn and Johnson, trying to promote a sense of decency. Unfortunately, the “grown up” style came across as hectoring and people just couldn’t reconcile this attitude with the pledge to immediately cancel Brexit. Presentationally I think she was very poor. A shame as I think perhaps in different times she could have had a good stab at being leader, but these were exceptional times and she wasn’t the right person for the job.

    Once Swinson ruled out working with Labour, which she did immediately and without apparent consideration or reflection, the jig was up. The only way the LDs could get to revoke Article 50 and/or hold a second referendum was through cooperating with Labour. Lyndon B Johnson's first rule of politics: learn to count.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    kle4 said:

    They could sit 2m apart I assume
    And wash each card after each handling until they become soggy?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    BREAKING: SPAIN’S CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE INCREASES AFTER YESTERDAY’S 19-DAY LOW BUT INFECTION RATE DROPS

    AFTER three straight days of decline, Spain’s daily coronavirus death rate has increased this morning with 619 registered deaths.
    It’s up from the 510 recorded yesterday, which had represented a 19-day low.
    Some 16,972 people have now lost their lives to the disease in Spain.
    Meanwhile the number of confirmed cases has increased by 4,167 to reach a total of 166,019.
    However the number of recorded new cases has dropped from the 4,830 reported on Saturday.
    Meanwhile, the number of recovered COVID-19 sufferers stands at 62,391 as of Sunday morning.
    It means 3,282 people were rid of the disease in the last 24 hours.
    The number of recovered patients and new infections continue their general trend of becoming closer, suggesting Spain is continuing to flatten the curve of its epidemic.
    Source: Olive Press
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Cookie said:

    That's perhaps what they should for. What they seem to be for is Europe and transsexuals. Which is ground the Labour Party often seemz keen to cover.
    If Ed Davey rather than Layla Moran is confirmed as next LD leader then the LDs will indeed be economically liberal and fiscally conservative and with less emphasis on 'woke' social issues while keeping the desire to be closely aligned with the EU/EEA.

    That would reflect the fact most LD target seats now are held by the Tories in wealthy parts of London and the South
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, well I'm relieved you censored that. Corporal Jones was not the most enlightened of characters. Behind that comedic mask lurked something decidedly murky.
    You saying Jonesy would have been a Leaver
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SCons can literally only talk about Independence as they have zero policies

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-52256951
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,628

    er no...most people are praying they don;t get ill with something that ain't Coronavirus because the chances of getting treated are precisely zip.
    No. In my own Trust we have separate A and E for the regular stuff, Chemo and cancer work is continuing, old ladies are having their #NOFs pinned pretty much as usual.

    Perhaps not the best time for a diabetes annual review, but patients can have it if they are concerned.

    They are staying away though. Rightly so too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    kinabalu said:

    This thread demonstrates clearly an enormous problem. Whatever suggestion is made for ways to raise Government revenues via taxation there will be lots of people crying foul. It's not fair. How do you define wealthy? It will discourage this, it will penalize that. People will just avoid it. People will flee for Bermuda. Etc.

    Trouble is, the finances are screwed and unless we plan to give up on the notion of a welfare state and public services, taxes are going to have to rise very significantly. We cannot live beyond our means ad infinitum. There is no magic money tree. Sure, we can keep borrowing it and printing it for a while, but sooner or later - probably sooner - the bill will be presented.

    Yep, that is why polling at this point tells us next to nothing. At some point in the near future the government is going to have to start making decisions about who to tax, in what way and at what rates, while simultaneously developing plans for spending on public services, including the NHS, social care and plenty more on top. It’s going to be very interesting.

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,184

    You want to encourage people who can work to work. At present the tax system penalises high income low wealth people at the expense of high wealth low income people - other groups can be ignored for present purposes. This is exactly the wrong way round. And you want to equalise wealth much more than income.

    NB if this switch were made now I would have been clobbered both on the way up and on the way down, but that’s life. It would be a lot fairer and give a lot more people an equal chance in life.
    So a spendthrift who never accumulates wealth with his 40k salary but instead spends it on blackjack and hookers gets to live relatively tax free

    Where as the cautious person who invests his money to buy a family home, saves to help their kids with their 40k salary gets clobbered with tax because they have "wealth"

    Not sure that is what should be encouraged
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    This thread demonstrates clearly an enormous problem. Whatever suggestion is made for ways to raise Government revenues via taxation there will be lots of people crying foul. It's not fair. How do you define wealthy? It will discourage this, it will penalize that. People will just avoid it. People will flee for Bermuda. Etc.

    Trouble is, the finances are screwed and unless we plan to give up on the notion of a welfare state and public services, taxes are going to have to rise very significantly. We cannot live beyond our means ad infinitum. There is no magic money tree. Sure, we can keep borrowing it and printing it for a while, but sooner or later - probably sooner - the bill will be presented.

    Serious question - for an unprecedented catastrophe affecting the entire world, why can't we all come to an agreed figure for what losses each country has incurred at the end of the crisis, then have all the finance ministers and central bankers sit down at their computers, press the 'Print Money' button to deposit said agreed sum back into their public treasuries, and then carry on as if it never happened? Every country would benefit, and only a limited relative advantage would be gained, so why not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Stocky said:

    True - but it`s not their money. people shouldn`t live their lives in expectation of an inheritance.
    No but that does not mean people shouldn't want to preserve the family assets either
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I've seen the Scottish Parliament. I remember that I kept looking for a while after I had found it, because I couldn't believe that in a city of such incredible, historic architecture, crafted by some of the all-time masters of the art, they had chosen to house their Parliament in a hideous sports centre...
    So what it’s irrelevant the building just needs to be fit for purpose.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    This thread demonstrates clearly an enormous problem. Whatever suggestion is made for ways to raise Government revenues via taxation there will be lots of people crying foul. It's not fair. How do you define wealthy? It will discourage this, it will penalize that. People will just avoid it. People will flee for Bermuda. Etc.

    Trouble is, the finances are screwed and unless we plan to give up on the notion of a welfare state and public services, taxes are going to have to rise very significantly. We cannot live beyond our means ad infinitum. There is no magic money tree. Sure, we can keep borrowing it and printing it for a while, but sooner or later - probably sooner - the bill will be presented.

    A far higher bill to a much smaller tax base

    Can;t pay, won't pay.

    I
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Morning excitement at Chez Rentool. A new species of bird in our garden: Red Legged Partridge.

    A-ha!

    Time to play some suitable music for Easter Sunday: something by The Bodysnatchers
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,507
    ydoethur said:

    He has passed the chequered flag for the last time?
    He finished his last lap?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    nichomar said:

    So what it’s irrelevant the building just needs to be fit for purpose.
    Beauty is irrelevant? Beauty is everything in an ugly world.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,631
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    He has passed the chequered flag for the last time?
    Sad news, one of the all-time greats. RIP, Sir Stirling.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    You’d rather discourage earning ?
    No. But personally I would tax houses more. Let’s keep it simple. Move all the Corona spending into a single bucket. No idea how much it is, but say £500bn. Have that owned by the Bank of England - and charging interest at, say, 2%.

    Tax 1% annually on the value of the houses. Explicitly branded as Corona tax. After about 12 years the debt will have been repaid.

    Current spending should be funded from current taxation. It may be that governments will want to increase current spending but that is something there should be a political debate about, not something that should be muddled with an exceptional one time cost
  • HYUFD said:

    If Ed Davey rather than Layla Moran is confirmed as next LD leader then the LDs will indeed be economically liberal and fiscally conservative and with less emphasis on 'woke' social issues while keeping the desire to be closely aligned with the EU/EEA.

    That would reflect the fact most LD target seats now are held by the Tories in wealthy parts of London and the South
    The LibDems problem is the shifting Overton Window. "Who we are" isn't the conversation to be having when what people want / need is shifting so quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178

    He finished his last lap?
    He has mounted to the great podium in the sky.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    All the way to France?
    I’m glad the reference wasn’t too obtuse!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think the lockdown will hold for another month. My mother's bridge club has started meeting again in secret like a communist cell in 1920s Berlin.
    You should tell the authorities.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    He volunteered to try monkey gland injections as a treatment iirc
    I’d imagine if you tried injecting a gorillas glands Parkinson’s wouldn’t really be a problem for much longer!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,184
    blairf said:

    public sector pensions are different, there is no 'pot'. but to keep everything 'fair' you just say all schemes now pay out at 90% what they would have done.
    How about instead we convert public sector pensions to defined contribution and limit employer contributions to same rate as private pensioners normally get, a 2/3 cut in all public sector pensions would save us a fortune
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    I've missed most of the debate this morning which is a pity as a topic close to me. I agree with the premise that the LibDems are going to struggle - their biggest error is leaving a pair of acting leaders one of whom no-one outside the party have heard of, and the other is the guy rejected by the party membership less than a year ago. To cancel the planned leadership election until 2021 is absurd.

    I wish them well...

    Are you back on board, Comrade?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    Serious question - for an unprecedented catastrophe affecting the entire world, why can't we all come to an agreed figure for what losses each country has incurred at the end of the crisis, then have all the finance ministers and central bankers sit down at their computers, press the 'Print Money' button to deposit said agreed sum back into their public treasuries, and then carry on as if it never happened? Every country would benefit, and only a limited relative advantage would be gained, so why not?
    Hmm. So you are saying that printing money is OK as long as we all do it. I`ll have to mull that one over.
  • Sad news about Sir Stirling. Though 90 years is a good effort!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    Sandpit said:

    Sad news, one of the all-time greats. RIP, Sir Stirling.
    This remains a gorgeous summary of his career and is well worth a read:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42755139
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Charles said:

    No. But personally I would tax houses more. Let’s keep it simple. Move all the Corona spending into a single bucket. No idea how much it is, but say £500bn. Have that owned by the Bank of England - and charging interest at, say, 2%.

    Tax 1% annually on the value of the houses. Explicitly branded as Corona tax. After about 12 years the debt will have been repaid.

    Current spending should be funded from current taxation. It may be that governments will want to increase current spending but that is something there should be a political debate about, not something that should be muddled with an exceptional one time cost
    That will not be a consequence free policy. The electorate will, rightly, demand stringent measures to ensure it never happens again.

    among those will be a complete shake up of relations with China
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    Are you back on board, Comrade?
    Chicken run. Leaving a sinking ship.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Someone above said they couldn’t figure out what the Lib Dems are for.

    Simply,
    Labour is for more equality
    The Conservatives are for protecting wealth.

    The Lib Dems were for / should for liberty - and the liberty to indulge your own interests, and - among other things, earn a living. That means being pro the “little person” and against vested interests.

    They *should* be & I’d happily vote for an FDP style party (although that’s probably 5-10% of the electorate at most). Increasing they appear to be an SDP/Labour mini me.

    If they are not distinct then what’s the point?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I think next week we hopefully reach peak.

    If it Carrys on growing after that we are screwed. I think we will sqweak through hopefully thanks to the extra capacity which is the major triumph of the Government/NHS who deserve great praise for that.
    And the armed forces
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    You should tell the authorities.
    I hope that`s not a serious comment, though suspect that it is.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Beauty is irrelevant? Beauty is everything in an ugly world.
    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and is also subject to fashion.
  • Are you back on board, Comrade?
    I thought the replacement of the rainbow bird with SKS might have been a clue...

    Not what I envisaged even a month ago. But times change, and I'm always open to putting my hand up and saying "I got this wrong"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    felix said:

    BREAKING: SPAIN’S CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE INCREASES AFTER YESTERDAY’S 19-DAY LOW BUT INFECTION RATE DROPS

    AFTER three straight days of decline, Spain’s daily coronavirus death rate has increased this morning with 619 registered deaths.
    It’s up from the 510 recorded yesterday, which had represented a 19-day low.
    Some 16,972 people have now lost their lives to the disease in Spain.
    Meanwhile the number of confirmed cases has increased by 4,167 to reach a total of 166,019.
    However the number of recorded new cases has dropped from the 4,830 reported on Saturday.
    Meanwhile, the number of recovered COVID-19 sufferers stands at 62,391 as of Sunday morning.
    It means 3,282 people were rid of the disease in the last 24 hours.
    The number of recovered patients and new infections continue their general trend of becoming closer, suggesting Spain is continuing to flatten the curve of its epidemic.
    Source: Olive Press

    There`s a lot of noise in the one day figures. The three day and seven day moving averages are of more use I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,507
    TGOHF666 said:

    Healthcare is very busy - but not overwhelmed.

    The lockdown won’t stop Covid - we may as well have a limited return to normal .
    The implication that both yourself and Contrarian are making is a spike in fatalities is worth it to save the economy. You are thus tacitly making the bold assumption that you will both survive an immediate curtailment of lockdown to get the economy back on track.

    A thriving economy is no good to any of us who find themselves six feet under through a casual response to Covid-19.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    I thought the replacement of the rainbow bird with SKS might have been a clue...

    Not what I envisaged even a month ago. But times change, and I'm always open to putting my hand up and saying "I got this wrong"
    Maybe you got it wrong a second time.

    I wonder if Chuka has regrets? Remember him?
  • tlg86 said:

    Stirling Moss has snuffed it.

    That is rather unkind
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Stocky said:

    Hmm. So you are saying that printing money is OK as long as we all do it. I`ll have to mull that one over.
    It would be a co-ordinated global response to a completely exogenous shock, which is exactly what this is - we should think of it as akin to an alien invasion that destroys cities and paralyses economies through no fault of their own. An extraordinary solution seems justified in this case.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Of course there is a transaction.
    A transaction involves transfer of money for something in return. Value is created and the government received a share of that value.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,507
    ydoethur said:

    He has mounted to the great podium in the sky.
    They have backed him into the pit lane garage, his race is over!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Is the government line of “ sorry if people feel “ ...... because of possible legal action if they actually say sorry to NHS workers or is it just trying to avoid accepting blame .

    Because clearly no10 has decided this is now the official line which will be parroted by the cabinet .
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    The implication that both yourself and Contrarian are making is a spike in fatalities is worth it to save the economy. You are thus tacitly making the bold assumption that you will both survive an immediate curtailment of lockdown to get the economy back on track.

    A thriving economy is no good to any of us who find themselves six feet under through a casual response to Covid-19.
    That is not the trade off.

    The trade off is lives lost to Corona versus lives lost to the depression that would follow an extended lockdown. labour has spent the last decade saying austerity cost lives.

    Not as much as economic depression. Not nearly as much. not even close.

    In a worst case scenario, sterling could suffer an enormous plunger in value, making the drugs for all sorts of treatments too expensive.

    Now that really might cost half a million lives.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    The implication that both yourself and Contrarian are making is a spike in fatalities is worth it to save the economy. You are thus tacitly making the bold assumption that you will both survive an immediate curtailment of lockdown to get the economy back on track.

    A thriving economy is no good to any of us who find themselves six feet under through a casual response to Covid-19.
    We have a spike in fatalities.

    We soon wont be able to afford the NHS - or at best will send our children to penury for a decade to pay off borrowing.

    Time for tough choices.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312

    That is rather unkind
    He was 90, and I think the link I posted showed what a great guy he was.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    nichomar said:

    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and is also subject to fashion.
    Please. If you think Enric Miralles comes within a million miles of Robert Adam, then no one can help you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944

    It would be a co-ordinated global response to a completely exogenous shock, which is exactly what this is - we should think of it as akin to an alien invasion that destroys cities and paralyses economies through no fault of their own. An extraordinary solution seems justified in this case.
    You can't magic back wealth that has been destroyed; you can only (re)distribute the losses.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What about those who have gained wealth without doing anything other than being born into the right family?

    They will be taxed on the income that wealth generates.

    My brother is an unusual case. He purchased a 25% stake in a private company at par value (about £30,000). He derives a £1,500 annual income from those share.

    If the company was ever to be sold then the market value would be meaningful in excess of the purchase price. But he can’t sell his shares independently because each of the other shareholders has a first right of refusal at par value.

    So how wealthy is he actually?
  • Stocky said:

    Maybe you got it wrong a second time.

    I wonder if Chuka has regrets? Remember him?
    Others can make their own minds up. Was I wrong to disown Corbyn and all he stood for? No. Was joining the LibDems when I did wrong? Possibly. Either way, I realised about a month back that the LibDems probably wasn't where I was going to stay as I just couldn't get into who they are - or think they are. When you've done one thing for 25 years and suddenly start doing another thing its going to take time. Once I realised my heart wasn't in it I stopped making the effort.

    As for returning to Labour, whilst SKS has a lot to do he has at least made a positive start. And once my friends in Labour put the feelers out about my return I started thinking about it actively. Won't be an easy ride, I know I've put a few people out locally and won't be trusted by others. Whatever. I can come back in, roll my sleeves up and get on with pushing the loons out now that their death grip on the party has been broken.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    edited April 2020

    Serious question - for an unprecedented catastrophe affecting the entire world, why can't we all come to an agreed figure for what losses each country has incurred at the end of the crisis, then have all the finance ministers and central bankers sit down at their computers, press the 'Print Money' button to deposit said agreed sum back into their public treasuries, and then carry on as if it never happened? Every country would benefit, and only a limited relative advantage would be gained, so why not?

    I do not have the arcane knowledge to explain why this will not work, so will rely on a little saying. Most of these are nonsense, of course, but this one isn't. This one holds for all things in all circumstances -

    If something looks too good to be true, it isn't true.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,507

    That is not the trade off.

    The trade off is lives lost to Corona versus lives lost to the depression that would follow an extended lockdown. labour has spent the last decade saying austerity cost lives.

    Not as much as economic depression. Not nearly as much. not even close.

    In a worst case scenario, sterling could suffer an enormous plunger in value, making the drugs for all sorts of treatments too expensive.

    Now that really might cost half a million lives.
    I'll stick with Boris' programme thankyou. I hope when he is back in the saddle he will too!
  • agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 114
    The Lib Dems lost an irreplaceable mentor when Paddy Ashdown died.

    Now they need to find a distinctive Liberal and Democratic policy on the only relevant issue - the National Health Service.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    He has mounted to the great podium in the sky.

    A life lived long and well. And wholly without DRS.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    TGOHF666 said:

    We have a spike in fatalities.
    You call 10,000 deaths a spike? Think half a million.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Chris said:

    You call 10,000 deaths a spike? Think half a million.
    Nobody is thinking half a million. Not even the bloke who said it would be half a million
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    edited April 2020
    I see that John Prine has died of the dreaded lurgy. He wasn't much older than me but he only had one lung so I suppose it's not a shock.

    I still remember nearly fifty years ago hearing him sing "Sam Stone." for the first time.

    Not your usual Vietnam protest song …

    "Sam Stone came home,
    To the wife and family
    After serving in the conflict overseas.
    And the time that he served,
    Had shattered all his nerves,
    And left a little shrapnel in his knees.
    But the morphine eased the pain,
    And the grass grew round his brain,
    And gave him all the confidence he lacked,
    With a purple heart and a monkey on his back."


    There's a hole in daddy's arm where all the money goes,
    Jesus Christ died for nothin, I suppose.
    Little pitchers have big ears,
    Don't stop to count the years,
    Sweet songs never last too long on broken radios."

    They certainly don't.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    I do not have the arcane knowledge to explain why this will not work, so will rely on a little saying. Most of these are nonsense, of course, but this one isn't. This one holds for all things in all circumstances -

    If something looks too good to be true, it isn't true.
    Then why on earth do you believe in socialism? It's the ultimate exemplar of that saying. :wink:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Charles said:

    They will be taxed on the income that wealth generates.

    My brother is an unusual case. He purchased a 25% stake in a private company at par value (about £30,000). He derives a £1,500 annual income from those share.

    If the company was ever to be sold then the market value would be meaningful in excess of the purchase price. But he can’t sell his shares independently because each of the other shareholders has a first right of refusal at par value.

    So how wealthy is he actually?
    My guess is that your brother does not rely solely on that £1,500 annual income.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That will not be a consequence free policy. The electorate will, rightly, demand stringent measures to ensure it never happens again.

    among those will be a complete shake up of relations with China
    Yes. But that should happen anyway.
  • Others can make their own minds up. Was I wrong to disown Corbyn and all he stood for? No. Was joining the LibDems when I did wrong? Possibly. Either way, I realised about a month back that the LibDems probably wasn't where I was going to stay as I just couldn't get into who they are - or think they are. When you've done one thing for 25 years and suddenly start doing another thing its going to take time. Once I realised my heart wasn't in it I stopped making the effort.

    As for returning to Labour, whilst SKS has a lot to do he has at least made a positive start. And once my friends in Labour put the feelers out about my return I started thinking about it actively. Won't be an easy ride, I know I've put a few people out locally and won't be trusted by others. Whatever. I can come back in, roll my sleeves up and get on with pushing the loons out now that their death grip on the party has been broken.
    Good luck on your journey
  • Nobody is thinking half a million. Not even the bloke who said it would be half a million
    You repeat the same lines over and over. A troll. Ignore.

    --AS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,178
    kinabalu said:

    A life lived long and well. And wholly without DRS.
    On the contrary. In 1958 he appealed against a disqualification for reversing on the track, and got the decision overturned and second place reinstated.

    The punchline is that it wasn’t his disqualification he was cross about, it was Mike Hawthorn’s.

    Hawthorn beat him to the World Championship by one point as a result.

    And Moss didn’t care.

    What a legend.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    I've seen the Scottish Parliament. I remember that I kept looking for a while after I had found it, because I couldn't believe that in a city of such incredible, historic architecture, crafted by some of the all-time masters of the art, they had chosen to house their Parliament in a hideous sports centre...
    That is Labour for you , no class. Done out of spite and Scottish architects ignored out of pure dogma. They have a lot to answer for and have truly had their just desserts, one diddy MP left and he is a true Tory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    edited April 2020

    A far higher bill to a much smaller tax base

    Can;t pay, won't pay.

    We remain a relatively wealthy country. We can afford to pay more tax. So long as the burden falls on those who are doing more than just about managing, the consequent fall in living standards will not push people into poverty.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    You call 10,000 deaths a spike? Think half a million.
    What makes you think half a million is a maximum? The Black Death took out about a third of the population of Europe at the time, killing about 25m or so. If they had understood the cause and implemented the appropriate measures we might have got away with less than a million.

    On the bright side, you could say that the disease led to changes in the social structure that prepared the ground for the huge advances of the next few centuries. Perhaps C-19 will help us similarly?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944

    Nobody is thinking half a million. Not even the bloke who said it would be half a million
    What percentage of people do you think would catch the virus in an uncontrolled epidemic and what do you think the fatality rate would be? Even at 60% and 0.5% you're looking at over 200,000 deaths.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    I do not have the arcane knowledge to explain why this will not work, so will rely on a little saying. Most of these are nonsense, of course, but this one isn't. This one holds for all things in all circumstances -

    If something looks too good to be true, it isn't true.
    It depends what you are solving for.

    This preserves the relative position of countries but likely causes asset price inflation.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Others can make their own minds up. Was I wrong to disown Corbyn and all he stood for? No. Was joining the LibDems when I did wrong? Possibly. Either way, I realised about a month back that the LibDems probably wasn't where I was going to stay as I just couldn't get into who they are - or think they are. When you've done one thing for 25 years and suddenly start doing another thing its going to take time. Once I realised my heart wasn't in it I stopped making the effort.

    As for returning to Labour, whilst SKS has a lot to do he has at least made a positive start. And once my friends in Labour put the feelers out about my return I started thinking about it actively. Won't be an easy ride, I know I've put a few people out locally and won't be trusted by others. Whatever. I can come back in, roll my sleeves up and get on with pushing the loons out now that their death grip on the party has been broken.
    Sir Keir Starmer looks and sounds PM material.
    Even my father a life long Conservative says it is good to see an impressive leader of the opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Stocky said:

    Maybe you got it wrong a second time.

    I wonder if Chuka has regrets? Remember him?
    Chuka is probably already plotting to be Foreign Secretary in a Labour-LD coalition government after the next general election, then to become Macron to Starmer's Hollande
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    agingjb2 said:

    The Lib Dems lost an irreplaceable mentor when Paddy Ashdown died.

    Now they need to find a distinctive Liberal and Democratic policy on the only relevant issue - the National Health Service.

    First thing they need are some liberal and democratic people leading the party. Rennie in Scotland is shocking , totally and utterly useless, totally undemocratic and anything but liberal. A tool of the first order.
    You have Carmichael, convicted of being a mendacious lying toerag by a court, yet he is kept in place. It si no wonder they are circling the drain.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,184
    kinabalu said:

    We remain a relatively wealthy country. We can afford to pay more tax. So long as the burden falls on those who are doing more than just about managing, the consequent fall in living standards will not push people into poverty.
    Those just about managing always get hit by tax increases, there are not enough higher rate tax payers to make up the money needed so the basic rate will be raised
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    HYUFD said:

    No but that does not mean people shouldn't want to preserve the family assets either

    I saw her today at the reception ...
  • Yorkcity said:

    Sir Keir Starmer looks and sounds PM material.
    Even my father a life long Conservative says it is good to see an impressive leader of the opposition.
    I said as much earlier on this morning
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    Morning excitement at Chez Rentool. A new species of bird in our garden: Red Legged Partridge.

    A-ha!

    Time to play some suitable music for Easter Sunday: something by The Bodysnatchers

    Was it in your pear tree?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    SNP leaving business high and dry again. Real anger mounting at this.

    https://twitter.com/jackson_carlaw/status/1249286094857928704?s=21
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    My guess is that your brother does not rely solely on that £1,500 annual income.
    No, of course not. He receives a decent six figure salary from the company (but works there full time). He pays income tax on it, like everyone else on PAYE.

    But the market value of his shares would be meaningfully in excess of his salary.

    It’s not easy to define wealth. The easy answer is to say he is wealthy based on his ownership stake in the company. But he can’t sell the shares and he doesn’t derive much income from them. So is he really wealthy?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Stocky said:

    Maybe you got it wrong a second time.

    I wonder if Chuka has regrets? Remember him?
    Yes does anyone know what his plans are ?
    Chuka politically has gone from a major player , to not in the game.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    Alistair said:

    SCons can literally only talk about Independence as they have zero policies

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-52256951

    Carcrash is a gift for the SNP, he will challenge Rennie for Bellend of the Year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567

    I said as much earlier on this morning
    Really feels like someone turned the Labour party off and on again, for a restart.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    I saw a very unusual little bird in the garden yesterday. Very small bird with a distinctive bright red colouration on its head.

    No real interest because by the time you plucked it, removed the bones and the wings, there'd be very little meat left. Pangolins next?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    malcolmg said:

    You saying Jonesy would have been a Leaver

    Without a shadow.

    I recall doing this about a year back - how "Dad's Army" would have voted in the Ref - and I had Jones as not only a Leaver but a No Deal ultra.

    Brussels, they don't like it up em.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,797
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    If Ed Davey rather than Layla Moran is confirmed as next LD leader then the LDs will indeed be economically liberal and fiscally conservative and with less emphasis on 'woke' social issues while keeping the desire to be closely aligned with the EU/EEA.

    That would reflect the fact most LD target seats now are held by the Tories in wealthy parts of London and the South
    Neither Davey or Moran appeal to me - Davey for fiscal conservatism and Moran for her wokeness. The other choice for leader is Daisy Cooper. But I don't know where she stands on these issues. There is a year to find out. She was at 8s for next leader on Betfair as this blog started. I note that she is now on 1.2. All the cash above 1.2 to 8 has been taken.
This discussion has been closed.