Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Human trials of a coronavirus vaccine could “begin in a fortni

245

Comments

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    From personal observation, mindset does play a part in a patient’s recovery, though I wouldn’t call it character. Goals-oriented people - those willing to work from where they are now - recover better, while brooders over the past do relatively worse. Oh, and a willingness actually to follow medical advice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, wise plans are based on the cavalry not coming.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    isam said:

    This weekend in the South East it’s going to be 25 degrees. On Monday and Tuesday the weather forecast is for it to be less than half that. I predict a lot of people will falsely think they’ve got Covid-19 by Tuesday evening.

    My favourite word of the week has been @Foxy's coronachondria. I had a dose myself last night, high temperature, general body aches etc. Still feel sub par this morning but I don't think it was the dreaded lurgy.

    There is an interesting article in the Courier this morning with doctors at Ninewells saying that they can nearly always tell now whether someone has the virus before the results come back. They are getting more attuned to identifying the signs, the most obvious marker being the loss of the sense of taste or smell. Given that they have only had a few hundred cases to deal with I would guess that this has happened elsewhere and might explain why in several countries it has ultimately thought to be a bit of a waste of time testing those who clearly have it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    SMukesh said:

    Foxy said:

    35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

    As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

    People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.
    Daughter-in-law is Thai, so that set of grandchildren are half-Thai. When they come here which minority ethnic are they?
    Don't think they'll come here to live or study, but they might.
    It's not always clear and peoples view of their own ethnicity can alter. I was talking with a census chap once and he said a local area with significant numbers of people with north African descent showed as less than people expected because the 2nd generation tended to put white other as their classification in contrast to their parents and grandparents.
  • I haven't been a class traitor during the lockdown unlike this FT journo.

    Covid-19: how I’m betraying my class in the lockdown

    No family song on Facebook, no dance routine, no home-grown tomatoes… is it time to raise our game?


    https://www.ft.com/content/5cdba5a2-77bc-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    "The median length of stay was 19.6 months for all admissions. Median length of stay for people admitted to nursing beds was 11.9 months and for residential beds it was 26.8 months. "

    https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33895/1/dp2769.pdf

    A much googled question, presumably by people desperate to calculate when the money runs out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    From personal observation, mindset does play a part in a patient’s recovery, though I wouldn’t call it character. Goals-oriented people - those willing to work from where they are now - recover better, while brooders over the past do relatively worse. Oh, and a willingness actually to follow medical advice.

    I think it depends on lots of factors. But I know my father made it through 3 rounds of chemo to beat cancer. He definitely had to "fight" to make.

    He was in incredible pain for month after month, and each time he went back and said we are going to have to go again, do you want to go through it, there is still only a fairly small chance it will work. Many people might well have said ok I can't face that any more, just make it stop.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I haven't been a class traitor during the lockdown unlike this FT journo.

    Covid-19: how I’m betraying my class in the lockdown

    No family song on Facebook, no dance routine, no home-grown tomatoes… is it time to raise our game?


    https://www.ft.com/content/5cdba5a2-77bc-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987

    The Meeks household has been doing its bit. We’ve had a Facebook video of cocktail-making and a fancy Easter cheesecake shown off to friends and family.
  • Good morning

    I ask this genuinely but has it be determined if BAME are more at risk of this deadly virus, as it does seem we are losing quite a lot of BAME medical staff

    Also my wife and I were devastated when pictures were shown of the horrible mass burial of those with no relatives in some appalling location in NewYork.

    Has the US descended the depths of a sewer in disrespecting each and everyone of these poor people who deserve the highest respect for the lose of their lives and not to be buried in a dark cold out of the way, out of the mind location

    If one good comes out of this evil virus let us hope we revisit the value of each and everyone and raise up those with so little and provide them with hope
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250

    I haven't been a class traitor during the lockdown unlike this FT journo.

    Covid-19: how I’m betraying my class in the lockdown

    No family song on Facebook, no dance routine, no home-grown tomatoes… is it time to raise our game?


    https://www.ft.com/content/5cdba5a2-77bc-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987

    My cousins have been playing Catan online, with cameras hanging from light fittings and then rest.

    Just like camping in the 1970s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    I haven't been a class traitor during the lockdown unlike this FT journo.

    Covid-19: how I’m betraying my class in the lockdown

    No family song on Facebook, no dance routine, no home-grown tomatoes… is it time to raise our game?


    https://www.ft.com/content/5cdba5a2-77bc-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987

    There are people who genuinely worry about betraying their class? And they are not living in the 80s or are 19 years old?

    Remarkable
  • On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370

    Worrying news from South Korea yesterday that 91 patients who had previously had and recovered from CV have now tested positive again. Some are asymptomatic but some are now showing fever and respiratory problems again.

    That could really mess up any long term immunity plans.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-blow-to-immunity-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?ocid=spartanntp

    It will be recalled that one of the UK nurses who developed ebola in 2014 experienced relapses. A relapse can have a complicated explanation. However there is now an Ebola vaccine rVSV-ZEBOV which has been approved in the US, and is believed to be effective.

    I think it is likely that there will be a coronavirus vaccine. If no vaccine is found it is likely to take at least 3-4 years before scientists accept that fact. Would that mean we would remain under an indefinite lockdown afterwards? Today's papers are saying yes to that. In reality it probably would not be in our interests.

    Being under lockdown would be very expensive. Suppose 50,000 lives per year were lost as a result. Over 10 years that would add up to 500,000 lives. Ending the lockdown would cost lives but it would be a one-off loss, which could be reduced by ending the lockdown gradually. I cannot see any other choice, and it would lead to herd immunity. Afterwards the disease would be endemic and most people would get it in their lives, but most would get it when they were young and they would tolerate it relatively well. This point will be moot if a vaccine is found, so hopefully this is a hypothetical discussion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020
    DavidL said:

    There is a difference between inventing something and incompetently allowing yourself to become cross-contaminated with it.

    If indeed there is any lab involvement at all. Seems unlikely but one cannot know for sure.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    So far the UK has had 73k confirmed cases, just over 1% of the population. The key question remains is what multiplier you apply to that to identify what % have had it overall.

    Herd immunity almost certainly requires something like 60% of the population to be immune, possibly more in high risk environments like the London Underground. What concerns me is that it is clear that the spread has been extremely patchy. In Scotland generally, especially outside Glasgow, the recorded infection rate is well below 1%. I can completely see why it was just too complicated to have regional lock downs, the Italian experience of that was a bit of a disaster, but the fact is that short of a vaccine some parts of the country are going to have minimal protection once the lock down ends.
  • kle4 said:

    I haven't been a class traitor during the lockdown unlike this FT journo.

    Covid-19: how I’m betraying my class in the lockdown

    No family song on Facebook, no dance routine, no home-grown tomatoes… is it time to raise our game?


    https://www.ft.com/content/5cdba5a2-77bc-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987

    There are people who genuinely worry about betraying their class? And they are not living in the 80s or are 19 years old?

    Remarkable
    Far too many people are about class.

    As I was taught, those with class never talk about class, which is why you see me never banging on about class.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Oxford’s a dump, it’s like listening to Alan Clark on fidelity and abstinence.

    Oxford were also touting a few weeks ago that most of us already had Covid-19 which turned out to be balls.

    We haven’t heard much from your alma mater, doubtless the Cambridge research into this crisis is currently with the Kremlin for approval as per.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    This weekend in the South East it’s going to be 25 degrees. On Monday and Tuesday the weather forecast is for it to be less than half that. I predict a lot of people will falsely think they’ve got Covid-19 by Tuesday evening.

    They are getting more attuned to identifying the signs, the most obvious marker being the loss of the sense of taste or smell.
    Loss of taste? Widespread in the media than :wink: .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a difference between inventing something and incompetently allowing yourself to become cross-contaminated with it.

    If indeed there is any lab involvement at all. Seems unlikely but one cannot know for sure.
    I think that the evidence that labs in Wuhan were investigating coronaviruses in bats is pretty strong. It also seems that this virus is at least closely related to those found in bats. We know people in Wuhan would buy bats to eat in this wet market. I mean, it could all be a remarkable coincidence, nothing is proven yet, but there is a case to answer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
    Dunno. I'm waiting for the Jews to be implicated somehow though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
    Dunno. I'm waiting for the Jews to be implicated somehow though.
    I am Conservative voter, half Jewish, a Free Mason and have connections to the original, real Bavarian Illuminati*.

    If anyone has a list of questions for the Lizard People, I can ask them at the next conclave.

    Obviously, you will disappear in the middle of the night in mysterious circumstances.

    But what do you expect?

    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    DougSeal said:

    Oxford’s a dump, it’s like listening to Alan Clark on fidelity and abstinence.

    Oxford were also touting a few weeks ago that most of us already had Covid-19 which turned out to be balls.

    We haven’t heard much from your alma mater, doubtless the Cambridge research into this crisis is currently with the Kremlin for approval as per.
    To be fair, Putin has been "out for lunch" for a fair bit now. Must be really annoying when the phone rings and rings with no reply.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Quincel said:

    The risk of ICU data being skewed is addressed by the original thread, which notes it is using data up to 3 April, during a period when capacity was mostly not reached so triage was mostly not necessary. Also there are two 93% figures, one relates to ICU admissions without 'very serious comorbidities' but the other relates to all hospital admissions who were 'able to live without assistance in daily activities'. Even if ICU triage is skewing those figures, the fact almost all people who were hospitalised were living independently beforehand suggests almost all of them had more than a few months to live had they not caught coronavirus.

    See thread below.

    https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

    The people not “able to live without assistance in daily activities” are dying in huge swathes in care homes.

    It’s probably more like 75% of Covid-19 deaths that are 80 or over. Over 50% are that age in the hospital death figures
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Good morning

    I ask this genuinely but has it be determined if BAME are more at risk of this deadly virus, as it does seem we are losing quite a lot of BAME medical staff

    Also my wife and I were devastated when pictures were shown of the horrible mass burial of those with no relatives in some appalling location in NewYork.

    Has the US descended the depths of a sewer in disrespecting each and everyone of these poor people who deserve the highest respect for the lose of their lives and not to be buried in a dark cold out of the way, out of the mind location

    If one good comes out of this evil virus let us hope we revisit the value of each and everyone and raise up those with so little and provide them with hope

    It's where they have been burying paupers for 150 years.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2020

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
    Dunno. I'm waiting for the Jews to be implicated somehow though.
    I am Conservative voter, half Jewish, a Free Mason and have connections to the original, real Bavarian Illuminati*.

    If anyone has a list of questions for the Lizard People, I can ask them at the next conclave.

    Obviously, you will disappear in the middle of the night in mysterious circumstances.

    But what do you expect?

    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati
    There's a reason Oxford's motto is Dominus _Illuminati_o mea, amirite?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    DavidL said:

    So far the UK has had 73k confirmed cases, just over 1% of the population. The key question remains is what multiplier you apply to that to identify what % have had it overall.

    Herd immunity almost certainly requires something like 60% of the population to be immune, possibly more in high risk environments like the London Underground. What concerns me is that it is clear that the spread has been extremely patchy. In Scotland generally, especially outside Glasgow, the recorded infection rate is well below 1%. I can completely see why it was just too complicated to have regional lock downs, the Italian experience of that was a bit of a disaster, but the fact is that short of a vaccine some parts of the country are going to have minimal protection once the lock down ends.

    I think that 73K is closer to 0.1% of the population.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Foxy said:

    35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

    As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

    People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.
    A case in point is the picture that accompanies the headline today of Holby city donating ventilators to NHS Nightingale.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52250706

    On a different note, Boris went up in my estimate greatly when he gave good representation to people of Asian origin in the cabinet, not the token representation.
    The number of Asian doctors who have already given their lives seeking to help people with this virus in the UK is deeply troubling and suggests to me a genetic vulnerability that goes beyond a greater predisposition towards diabetes. @Foxy's report that 35% of those on ICUs are BAME may well point the same way but I agree that the definition confuses rather than helps.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning

    I ask this genuinely but has it be determined if BAME are more at risk of this deadly virus, as it does seem we are losing quite a lot of BAME medical staff

    Also my wife and I were devastated when pictures were shown of the horrible mass burial of those with no relatives in some appalling location in NewYork.

    Has the US descended the depths of a sewer in disrespecting each and everyone of these poor people who deserve the highest respect for the lose of their lives and not to be buried in a dark cold out of the way, out of the mind location

    If one good comes out of this evil virus let us hope we revisit the value of each and everyone and raise up those with so little and provide them with hope

    It's where they have been burying paupers for 150 years.
    It is shameful
  • Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.

    Are you going to adopt the attitude of the.... philosophically interesting people in the USA? The ones who announced that they'd rather die than use a vaccine from -

    - Democrats
    - Bill Gates
    - Labs using foetal material (WTF has that got to do with a vaccine?)
    - Lizard People.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    So far the UK has had 73k confirmed cases, just over 1% of the population. The key question remains is what multiplier you apply to that to identify what % have had it overall.

    Herd immunity almost certainly requires something like 60% of the population to be immune, possibly more in high risk environments like the London Underground. What concerns me is that it is clear that the spread has been extremely patchy. In Scotland generally, especially outside Glasgow, the recorded infection rate is well below 1%. I can completely see why it was just too complicated to have regional lock downs, the Italian experience of that was a bit of a disaster, but the fact is that short of a vaccine some parts of the country are going to have minimal protection once the lock down ends.

    I think that 73K is closer to 0.1% of the population.
    You're right. Not enough coffee yet (I think I miss cappuccino (with chocolate sprinkles @Cyclefree ) + cake more than anything. That is even more depressing. A vaccine is the only way out of this without almost unimaginable levels of death.
  • DougSeal said:

    Oxford’s a dump, it’s like listening to Alan Clark on fidelity and abstinence.

    Oxford were also touting a few weeks ago that most of us already had Covid-19 which turned out to be balls.

    We haven’t heard much from your alma mater, doubtless the Cambridge research into this crisis is currently with the Kremlin for approval as per.
    They are working behind the scenes, unlike the publicity whores in Oxford.

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

    Coronavirus: Cambridge University laboratory will handle up to 30,000 COVID-19 tests a day.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-cambridge-university-laboratory-will-handle-up-to-30-000-covid-19-tests-a-day-11970595

    The Cambridge 5 were actually spies who went deep into the Soviet intelligence services to help defeat the Soviets, the truth will come out soon.

    Now Oxford was a nest of traitors.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5434139/Oxford-traitor-spied-Russia-revealed.html

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/historian-threatens-to-expose-oxford-s-own-soviet-spy-ring-0wrzxr3p2

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/dreaming-spies-the-inside-story-of-the-kgb-at-oxford
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    isam said:

    SMukesh said:

    Foxy said:

    35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

    As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

    People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.
    Woefully underrepresented in EastEnders too

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2014/11/is-eastenders-more-racist-than.html
    Yes. Hopefully things will change when other ethnic minorities become more assertive and asking relevant questions.
  • On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.

    Are you going to adopt the attitude of the.... philosophically interesting people in the USA? The ones who announced that they'd rather die than use a vaccine from -

    - Democrats
    - Bill Gates
    - Labs using foetal material (WTF has that got to do with a vaccine?)
    - Lizard People.
    No, Oxford can get lucky once, and we can all be grateful.
  • kinabalu said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
    I do not think any government would not have experienced these issues and to sit on the sidelines with hindsight is just too easy

    Apparently PPE in normal times is supplied to approx 260 NHS trusts, in less than 3 months the figure has risen to 58,000 at a time when governments across the world are swamping the supplies
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    kle4 said:

    SMukesh said:

    Foxy said:

    35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

    As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

    People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.
    Daughter-in-law is Thai, so that set of grandchildren are half-Thai. When they come here which minority ethnic are they?
    Don't think they'll come here to live or study, but they might.
    It's not always clear and peoples view of their own ethnicity can alter. I was talking with a census chap once and he said a local area with significant numbers of people with north African descent showed as less than people expected because the 2nd generation tended to put white other as their classification in contrast to their parents and grandparents.
    That section of the family lives in Thailand. Eldest granddaughter, now 15 thought of herself, so far as she did as a child, I think, as English, largely because her father, a sports fanatics had wall to wall English sport at the slightest opportunity.
    Then she did a project at school (an International school) on 'Colonialism', realised that Thailand was the one South/South East Asian country which had never been under European control and became much prouder of her Thai-ness.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    My brother is a paramedic in Swansea and has many harrowing tales to tell. But this one is staggering....


  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
  • Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    I am not quick to judge and will wait to see in the months and years to come just which outcomes were successful and which were not

    You are not exactly an independent authority on this
  • DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:
    Interesting that Macron's approval is even below Trump's still, despite a small bounce for the French President following the crisis.

    The 2022 French election could be interesting.

    Lofven the only other leader under 50% but pursuing herd immunity does not yet seem fatal for the Swedish leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
    Dunno. I'm waiting for the Jews to be implicated somehow though.
    I am Conservative voter, half Jewish, a Free Mason and have connections to the original, real Bavarian Illuminati*.

    If anyone has a list of questions for the Lizard People, I can ask them at the next conclave.

    Obviously, you will disappear in the middle of the night in mysterious circumstances.

    But what do you expect?

    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati
    What about the Old Corporation of Malmesbury, given your name? :)
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    So far the UK has had 73k confirmed cases, just over 1% of the population. The key question remains is what multiplier you apply to that to identify what % have had it overall.

    Herd immunity almost certainly requires something like 60% of the population to be immune, possibly more in high risk environments like the London Underground. What concerns me is that it is clear that the spread has been extremely patchy. In Scotland generally, especially outside Glasgow, the recorded infection rate is well below 1%. I can completely see why it was just too complicated to have regional lock downs, the Italian experience of that was a bit of a disaster, but the fact is that short of a vaccine some parts of the country are going to have minimal protection once the lock down ends.

    I think that 73K is closer to 0.1% of the population.
    You're right. Not enough coffee yet (I think I miss cappuccino (with chocolate sprinkles @Cyclefree ) + cake more than anything. That is even more depressing. A vaccine is the only way out of this without almost unimaginable levels of death.
    It is known that many cases have not been tested, including some hospital cases, cases in care homes, and mild and asymptomatic cases in the community. A multiplier of 10 is reasonable which gives 730K which is more than 1% of the population. The definitive answer is antibody testing. One difficulty with this is obtaining a representative sample. Blood samples are required and these are not easy to get. Blood donors tend to be healthier than average, and hospital patients sicker than average. Perhaps samples could be taken from road accident victims, who might be more representative of the population as a whole.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    kinabalu said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
    I do not think any government would not have experienced these issues and to sit on the sidelines with hindsight is just too easy

    Apparently PPE in normal times is supplied to approx 260 NHS trusts, in less than 3 months the figure has risen to 58,000 at a time when governments across the world are swamping the supplies
    ..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    kinabalu said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
    It does appear our best case scenario will not be great. Fingers crossed we are not appreciably worst.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No. The World Wide Web has has no discernible effect on any of us. As for Microscopy...pah...load of old rubbish.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    DavidL said:

    I think that the evidence that labs in Wuhan were investigating coronaviruses in bats is pretty strong. It also seems that this virus is at least closely related to those found in bats. We know people in Wuhan would buy bats to eat in this wet market. I mean, it could all be a remarkable coincidence, nothing is proven yet, but there is a case to answer.

    I'm not seeing that particular co-incidence as remarkable but I do agree that lab involvement in the virus is surely possible. I'd stop there though - at possible - I would not venture anywhere near a "probable" based on current evidence.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    I couldnt finish my earlier post below..... as couldnt paste story. But to summarise my brother is a paramedic in Swansea and he has been told not to collect any Covid patients from care homes - previously they would be taken to A & E. Now his instruction is only to collect the bodies.

    It is assumed that anyone with Covid in a care home is going to die anyway so let them die there rather than fill up A & E.
  • kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
    It does appear our best case scenario will not be great. Fingers crossed we are not appreciably worst.
    I suspect most of Europe will be similar but we shall see
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    kinabalu said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    Excellent post. One wants to be supportive of the government at a time like this but there is quite strong evidence that they have been far from upper quartile in their response thus far.
    I do not think any government would not have experienced these issues and to sit on the sidelines with hindsight is just too easy

    Apparently PPE in normal times is supplied to approx 260 NHS trusts, in less than 3 months the figure has risen to 58,000 at a time when governments across the world are swamping the supplies
    Excuses Excuses at the end of the day that is all the Government will have left if and when we end up with the worst outcomes in Europe they will be rightly held to account.

    For now we should hope we dont end up there.

    The Government have done some exellent things such as the swift opening of Nightingale capacity but it has also made and is still making catostrophic errors on PPE/testing capacity.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No. The World Wide Web has has no discernible effect on any of us. As for Microscopy...pah...load of old rubbish.
    I should have been clearer, changed humanity for the better.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
    Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

    And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.
    Reading some of the Left echo chamber this morning and you would conclude that the Government is basically murdering people in carer homes. Presumably to avoid the costs of reforming social care.
    But also "killing off" a lot of natural Tory voters...how does that would square with the evil genius baby eating planning conspiracy theory?
    Dunno. I'm waiting for the Jews to be implicated somehow though.
    I am Conservative voter, half Jewish, a Free Mason and have connections to the original, real Bavarian Illuminati*.

    If anyone has a list of questions for the Lizard People, I can ask them at the next conclave.

    Obviously, you will disappear in the middle of the night in mysterious circumstances.

    But what do you expect?

    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati
    I'm, er, assuming with those credentials you can still source plentiful supplies of babies for those BBQs we, er, aren't supposed to still be having?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    I am not quick to judge and will wait to see in the months and years to come just which outcomes were successful and which were not

    You are not exactly an independent authority on this
    Nor are you BigG
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited April 2020




    I am Conservative voter, half Jewish, a Free Mason and have connections to the original, real Bavarian Illuminati*.

    If anyone has a list of questions for the Lizard People, I can ask them at the next conclave.

    Obviously, you will disappear in the middle of the night in mysterious circumstances.

    But what do you expect?

    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati

    Have you ever played https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati_(game) ? Excellent game. The play-by-mail version (now sadly unavailable) was even better, as you could not only play with conspiracies but work to change their characteristics - half the fun was gradually changing the Boy Scouts or the Women's Institutes into an alien communist conpiracy, or the KGB into a conservative Christian plot.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    We did
    DavidL said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Foxy said:

    35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

    As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

    People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.
    A case in point is the picture that accompanies the headline today of Holby city donating ventilators to NHS Nightingale.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52250706

    On a different note, Boris went up in my estimate greatly when he gave good representation to people of Asian origin in the cabinet, not the token representation.
    The number of Asian doctors who have already given their lives seeking to help people with this virus in the UK is deeply troubling and suggests to me a genetic vulnerability that goes beyond a greater predisposition towards diabetes. @Foxy's report that 35% of those on ICUs are BAME may well point the same way but I agree that the definition confuses rather than helps.
    Black and Asian people in Britain are said to suffer more with diabetes and Covid more than white people, and maybe that’s genetics, but the fact that they tend to live in polluted cities and are poorer in money terms too must play a part?

    How are countries that are majority black, with decent air quality, getting on with covid? Caribbean countries?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    'testing capacity' remains a dead red herring if you're imagining it as a single strategy.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    There are many factors involved in this John, including some of our arsehole fellow countrymen and women who seem to think social distancing doesn't apply to them
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No. The World Wide Web has has no discernible effect on any of us. As for Microscopy...pah...load of old rubbish.
    I should have been clearer, changed humanity for the better.
    Indeed. The current crisis would be so much more manageable without any web-based applications. As for Hooke’s identification and naming of the cell as the basic biological unit of all known organisms, no doubt Covid-19 research could well do without it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    fox327 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    So far the UK has had 73k confirmed cases, just over 1% of the pthopulation. The key question remains is what multiplier you apply to that to identify what % have had it overall.

    Herd immunity almost certainly requires something like 60% of the population to be immune, possibly more in high risk environments like the London Underground. What concerns me is that it is clear that the spread has been extremely patchy. In Scotland generally, especially outside Glasgow, the recorded infection rate is well below 1%. I can completely see why it was just too complicated to have regional lock downs, the Italian experience of that was a bit of a disaster, but the fact is that short of a vaccine some parts of the country are going to have minimal protection once the lock down ends.

    I think that 73K is closer to 0.1% of the population.
    You're right. Not enough coffee yet (I think I miss cappuccino (with chocolate sprinkles @Cyclefree ) + cake more than anything. That is even more depressing. A vaccine is the only way out of this without almost unimaginable levels of death.
    It is known that many cases have not been tested, including some hospital cases, cases in care homes, and mild and asymptomatic cases in the community. A multiplier of 10 is reasonable which gives 730K which is more than 1% of the population. The definitive answer is antibody testing. One difficulty with this is obtaining a representative sample. Blood samples are required and these are not easy to get. Blood donors tend to be healthier than average, and hospital patients sicker than average. Perhaps samples could be taken from road accident victims, who might be more representative of the population as a whole.
    I suspect that RTA victims are probably less representative of the general population than normal at the moment given the collapse in traffic and fewer old people being out. But even if you are right with 10x that still means that herd immunity gets us back to 60x the current mortality or approximately 540k people, basically where we started from in the government's models. It may be we cannot avoid this but we are certainly right to do everything possible to try.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Hancock says just now 19 NHS workers have lost their lives to Covid 19

    Its at least 28 according to the press reports

    A Chowdhury
    F Ayache
    A Saadu
    H Zaidi
    A Hawrani
    El Tayar
    J Rathod
    A Sebastianpillai
    M Shousha
    S Haider
    A Ong
    E Perugia
    D Souelto
    C Jamabo
    J Alagos
    L Glanister
    G Corbin
    T Harvey
    A Gatinao
    L Coventry
    C Sweeney
    J Graham
    E Adedeji
    B Moore
    P Sharma
    B Mack
    A Nasreen
    A O’Rourke

    No wonder he couldnt organize a PPE party in an ICU.

    Seriously though Hancock should take a break from TV and get the 100k tests per day and sufficient PPE sorted.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Floater said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    There are many factors involved in this John, including some of our arsehole fellow countrymen and women who seem to think social distancing doesn't apply to them
    I agree with that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    Pretty transient links with Oxford in some cases, and Cambridge can also claim Cavendish, Rutherford, Crick and Watson, Dirac.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No. The World Wide Web has has no discernible effect on any of us. As for Microscopy...pah...load of old rubbish.
    I should have been clearer, changed humanity for the better.
    Indeed. The current crisis would be so much more manageable without any web-based applications. As for Hooke’s identification and naming of the cell as the basic biological unit of all known organisms, no doubt Covid-19 research could well do without it.
    None of them ended up on our currency unlike Newton and Turing.

    That’s the true litmus test.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    This weekend in the South East it’s going to be 25 degrees. On Monday and Tuesday the weather forecast is for it to be less than half that. I predict a lot of people will falsely think they’ve got Covid-19 by Tuesday evening.

    My favourite word of the week has been @Foxy's coronachondria. I had a dose myself last night, high temperature, general body aches etc. Still feel sub par this morning but I don't think it was the dreaded lurgy.

    There is an interesting article in the Courier this morning with doctors at Ninewells saying that they can nearly always tell now whether someone has the virus before the results come back. They are getting more attuned to identifying the signs, the most obvious marker being the loss of the sense of taste or smell. Given that they have only had a few hundred cases to deal with I would guess that this has happened elsewhere and might explain why in several countries it has ultimately thought to be a bit of a waste of time testing those who clearly have it.
    The Director of Public Health, Dr Nicola Brink, has directed that additional symptoms should be added to the list for Bailiwick of Guernsey residents to be aware of.

    The full list, including new symptoms, as of today April, 10th are as follows:

     Muscle ache (fatigue, exhaustion)*
     Headache (sinus pain, pain around eyes)*
     Loss of smell/taste*
     Sore throat*
     Fever (high temperature, rigors, chills, can’t get warm.)
     Shortness of breath, chest tightness
     Continuous new cough

    *new to symptoms added as of Friday 10th April 2020

    These additional symptoms have been added as a result of continued assessment of diagnostic information available on Covid-19 from cases studied locally and from research further afield.....

    ....If you, or household member are showing signs of any, or a combination of these symptoms, please contact the Coronavirus Helpline or your GP to seek further advice. “


    https://covid19.gov.gg/sites/default/files/2020-04/Media Release - 10 April 2020 - New symptoms for testing announced this bank holiday weekend.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
    The problem is more in the nature of PPE. We have plenty of gloves, aprons and regular surgical masks. What we lack are FFP3 masks, hoods and long sleeved gowns.

    This intersects with the testing issue. We don't know which patients are positive, therefore what PPE to use. Play it safe and use it on all suspects or take a chance? That is the dilemma.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149



    Seriously though Hancock should take a break from TV and get the 100k tests per day and sufficient PPE sorted.

    I find it a little difficult to believe the factors which have been holding up the ability to make that target would be significantly impacted by the Secretary of State not being on TV so much. Matters of logistics or organisation might reach their apex, decision-making wise, with him, but the actual work to achieve it is not, I presume, much affected by his personal input.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Anyway I am off to fire up the 2 person barbecue

    Sausages, burgers, lamb chops and chicken time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Two pieces of wildly off topic news to report this fine morning.

    Firstly, two hedgehogs active in the garden in daylight hours. I'm not sure if their interaction was courtship or one bossing the other. Wor Lass went out to offer them some food, which sent them scuttling into the undergrowth.

    Secondly, I've started a new bag of porridge today. More finely milled than the previous bag, so cooks more quickly, but I prefer the courser texture. Some prankster had written on the bag that it should be made with water and salt. I don't think so!

    Have you tried soaking your porridge? It is delicious and makes the porridge more filling and much better for you. When I used to eat breakfast I'd have soaked porridge with butter, maple syrup or honey, and a dollop of natural yoghurt. Onnomnom.
    https://www.thehealthyhomeeconomist.com/video-how-to-cook-oatmeal-the-right-way/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    I do not think any government would not have experienced these issues and to sit on the sidelines with hindsight is just too easy

    Apparently PPE in normal times is supplied to approx 260 NHS trusts, in less than 3 months the figure has risen to 58,000 at a time when governments across the world are swamping the supplies

    It is also too easy to deflect reasonable criticism by saying it's all too easy to sit on the sidelines and carp. We're almost all on the sidelines after all.

    This is simply another way of saying. Crisis on. Trust in Boris. Shut up.

    Much prefer your 10.17 post where you sound uncannily like the Bernie Sanders of the Welsh Valleys. Let's have loads more like that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
    Do you not think that without him we would still have some version of the internet?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Foxy said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
    The problem is more in the nature of PPE. We have plenty of gloves, aprons and regular surgical masks. What we lack are FFP3 masks, hoods and long sleeved gowns.

    This intersects with the testing issue. We don't know which patients are positive, therefore what PPE to use. Play it safe and use it on all suspects or take a chance? That is the dilemma.
    "The resource is precious" though

    Stay save Foxy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Foxy said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
    The problem is more in the nature of PPE. We have plenty of gloves, aprons and regular surgical masks. What we lack are FFP3 masks, hoods and long sleeved gowns.

    This intersects with the testing issue. We don't know which patients are positive, therefore what PPE to use. Play it safe and use it on all suspects or take a chance? That is the dilemma.
    I've 'liked' this in sympathy, but I can well see the dilemma. How far down the chain do you go, too? Ward pharmacists 'on' ICU's?
  • kinabalu said:

    I do not think any government would not have experienced these issues and to sit on the sidelines with hindsight is just too easy

    Apparently PPE in normal times is supplied to approx 260 NHS trusts, in less than 3 months the figure has risen to 58,000 at a time when governments across the world are swamping the supplies

    It is also too easy to deflect reasonable criticism by saying it's all too easy to sit on the sidelines and carp. We're almost all on the sidelines after all.

    This is simply another way of saying. Crisis on. Trust in Boris. Shut up.

    Much prefer your 10.17 post where you sound uncannily like the Bernie Sanders of the Welsh Valleys. Let's have loads more like that.
    Yes but you do not have to follow a hard left mantra to achieve compassion
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
    Do you not think that without him we would still have some version of the internet?
    Of course; same applies to many other things too.
  • Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    I am not quick to judge and will wait to see in the months and years to come just which outcomes were successful and which were not

    You are not exactly an independent authority on this
    Nor are you BigG
    I am very well BJO but sad at the suffering, if that is allowed as a conservative
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    Foxy said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
    The problem is more in the nature of PPE. We have plenty of gloves, aprons and regular surgical masks. What we lack are FFP3 masks, hoods and long sleeved gowns.

    This intersects with the testing issue. We don't know which patients are positive, therefore what PPE to use. Play it safe and use it on all suspects or take a chance? That is the dilemma.
    Thanks, that helps to explain his comments yesterday about ensuring PPE is used correctly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    kle4 said:



    Seriously though Hancock should take a break from TV and get the 100k tests per day and sufficient PPE sorted.

    I find it a little difficult to believe the factors which have been holding up the ability to make that target would be significantly impacted by the Secretary of State not being on TV so much. Matters of logistics or organisation might reach their apex, decision-making wise, with him, but the actual work to achieve it is not, I presume, much affected by his personal input.
    It might be that Hancock needs to make better decisions then. Trouble is, if power is ruthlessly centralised by Number 10 then the wheels come off if the only man with the authority to get things done is trapped in an ICU south of the river.
    #ClassicDom.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    It is all so easy BJO
    Who says its easy but by definition the country that ends up with the worst outcome has clearly failed.

    Which bit of We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe do you not understand BigG
    I am not quick to judge and will wait to see in the months and years to come just which outcomes were successful and which were not

    You are not exactly an independent authority on this
    Nor are you BigG
    I am very well BJO but sad at the suffering, if that is allowed as a conservative
    It is most certainly not allowed, eat 5 babies immediately as a penance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
    Do you not think that without him we would still have some version of the internet?
    Of course; same applies to many other things too.
    Berners-Lee was at CERN, whatever his paper affiliation back in Blighty, so does not really count for either side. TSE is right about Thatcher though -- imagine lockdown without soft ice cream.
  • johnoundlejohnoundle Posts: 120
    edited April 2020

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.


    Maybe you can enlighten us as to which European country has sufficient PPE?


    -Three weeks ago my wife's niece who works on the front line in Toulon phoned us asking if we can send her P2/P3 respirators.

    -The Netherlands is struggling due to a recent delivery of P2 respirators from China being defective..

    -Finland has a similar issue to the Netherlands as a recent delivery of 2 million masks from China were found to be defective.

    -As per the L'Express report, orders of two million masks each for Italy & Spain from the Molnlycke plant (a Swedish company) in France was hijacked by Macron & required direct intervention from the Swedish government to release the orders.

    -Then of course there is the EU tender for PPE & ventilators which apparently is about to be signed, my wife's niece has been told to expect additional ventilators (France currently has 8,000 ventilators) in July, the PPE part of the tender may be earlier.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Interesting that Macron's approval is even below Trump's still, despite a small bounce for the French President following the crisis.

    The 2022 French election could be interesting.

    Lofven the only other leader under 50% but pursuing herd immunity does not yet seem fatal for the Swedish leader.
    The French hate all their politicians, Macron has by a decent margin the best approvals of anyone who might run - and he had a lead even before the pandemic.

    I'm not saying he's a sure-fire winner, but he's in a solid position for re-election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020

    Foxy said:

    Matt Hancock describes PPE as a "precious resource."

    Wrong. It is basic kit, essential for staff to stay alive. The idea that face masks should be used sparingly in a pandemic is frightening. The fact it's happening because of government failure to plan is criminal.

    People are dying because of PPE failings and the fact there has been such small number of tests we dont have a clue which NHS/Carer environment is safe or not.

    We could easily be on course to have the most deaths of any Country in Europe and those in charge will be held responsible for the flawed initial strategy, the PPE failings, the late lockdown failings, the pathetic inability to ramp up testing.

    "We followed the Science but ended up with the worst results" - not so much.

    There does seem to have been a failure in the supply chain. From Hancock's figures, I presume the supply used to be to NHS Trusts for onward supply to individual care settings, and that simply hasn't worked.
    The problem is more in the nature of PPE. We have plenty of gloves, aprons and regular surgical masks. What we lack are FFP3 masks, hoods and long sleeved gowns.

    This intersects with the testing issue. We don't know which patients are positive, therefore what PPE to use. Play it safe and use it on all suspects or take a chance? That is the dilemma.
    "The resource is precious" though

    Stay save Foxy
    No problem. Busy gardening without PPE today, apart from sunhat!

    Back into the maelstrom on Tuesday.

    The scuttlebutt from Italy is that the biggest risks are on the non-Covid wards. Presumably also Social Care where both PPE and training in its correct use are lacking. GP land is poorly supplied too, but the medical and nursing casualties seem to be in the hospital sector.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
    Do you not think that without him we would still have some version of the internet?
    Of course; same applies to many other things too.
    Berners-Lee was at CERN, whatever his paper affiliation back in Blighty, so does not really count for either side. TSE is right about Thatcher though -- imagine lockdown without soft ice cream.
    I always tell people about Mr. Whippy when they moan about Thatcher - I tell them you have to take the rough with the smooth.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    Pretty transient links with Oxford in some cases, and Cambridge can also claim Cavendish, Rutherford, Crick and Watson, Dirac.
    Hubble, fair enough, but Hooke, Schrodinger, Hooke and Berniers-Lee all taught and/or took degrees at Oxford. In addition we have Halley, Jethro Tull (the agronomist not the band) and Dorothy Hodgkin, who got her first degree from Oxford at a time Cambridge weren’t giving them to women. In Tull and Berners-Lee Oxford can claim as alumni the people that largely triggered the agricultural and information revolutions - both of which were/are humanity changing.

    Turing’s contribution to the war effort was carried out while at Manchester. Any credit that Cambridge claims for helping to win the second war is offset by its efforts to lose the cold one.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2020
    Foxy,

    I know I have a bee in my bonnet about air-fed helmets, vs FFP3 masks but comfort is an issue as I'm sure you know. If we're spending zillions on all and everything, the money shouldn't be an issue.

    If Australian ICUs can do it, why can't we? I'm sure the hospital training on correct use of RPE is comprehensive, but as they say, if you haven't got a red mark on your face afterwards, you're not using it properly. Is it a supply issue?

    Edit: I'm retired now, so it's always tempting to snipe from the sidelines. Apologies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Interesting that Macron's approval is even below Trump's still, despite a small bounce for the French President following the crisis.

    The 2022 French election could be interesting.

    Lofven the only other leader under 50% but pursuing herd immunity does not yet seem fatal for the Swedish leader.
    The French hate all their politicians, Macron has by a decent margin the best approvals of anyone who might run - and he had a lead even before the pandemic.

    I'm not saying he's a sure-fire winner, but he's in a solid position for re-election.
    He might still be re elected but if Macron is on just 40% approval it is possible Le Pen could win the first round and get over 40% in the run off
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

    Getting harder and harder to spin the lies as people know more and more information.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    HYUFD said:
    He wants to watch that - plod will have him up on a charge for being an 18th century highwayman.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited April 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    On topic, its Oxford, now if it was Cambridge saying this that would be a different matter :-)

    More seriously. Scientists are normally a pretty conservative bunch when it comes to making predictions about timelines on their work, so that has to be good news.

    One thing from the article that was interesting, was the claim that with this approach, we wouldn't need to build massive new infrastructure to produce it. Existing facilities could be re-purposed.

    Cambridge has produced humanity changing scientists like Darwin, Newton, and Turing, the only scientist of note Oxford has produced is Thatcher*.

    *Hawking doesn't count for Oxford as he realised it was a dump and decided to do his PhD at Cambridge.
    Edwin Hubble, Robert Hooke, Erwin Schrödinger, Tim Berners-Lee...mere bagatelle
    None of them changed humanity, I mean Turing helped win a war.
    No dog in this fight, apart from the fact that MA supervisor was based in ARU's Cambridge facility, but Berners-Lee's invention of the internet surely changed humanity!
    Do you not think that without him we would still have some version of the internet?
    Before Berners-Lee we had the internet, thanks to America's DARPA, so admired by Dominic Cummings. We used it with tools like ftp and gopher, email and newsgroups (imagine pb via email).

    TBL gave us the web (on top of the internet).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet
This discussion has been closed.