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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Human trials of a coronavirus vaccine could “begin in a fortnight” – The Times

What could turn out to be a very big development is reported on the front page of the Times on the progress that is being made towards developing a vaccine. The prediction on the timings comes from Oxford University’s Professor Sarah Gilbert, who told the paper that she was “80 per cent confident” this could be achieved. The Times report goes on:

Read the full story here

DecrepiterJohnL

This is promising news, and there have been similar claims by teams from Israel and America at least in the past week.

peter_from_putney

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1248840719168651266

War, pestilence, disease and famine also say hello to The Guardian.

Mysticrose

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Or an effective treatment, which is the other method.

A number of pathogens are halted not by vaccine but by cure e.g. the penicillin mentioned by Mike.

Casino_Royale

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1248840719168651266

War, pestilence, disease and famine also say hello to The Guardian.

That's its USP.

Casino_Royale

DecrepiterJohnL said:

This is promising news, and there have been similar claims by teams from Israel and America at least in the past week.

I'll believe it when I see it.

I've heard a lot about promising vaccines in the last couple of months.

rcs1000

Human trials of a vaccine started earlier this week in Washington state.

There are seven or eight vaccines that are entering human trials right now. Some are traditional in nature, and likely to work - but will also be very slow to manufacture. Others are more experimental - like the MRNA vaccine - and rely on the human body to create copies of the virus itself (only without the nasty bits removed), which the immune system then fights. (If this works, and it's a massive if, given there are exactly no vaccines that work this way currently, then it can be brought up to speed pretty rapidly.)

There are coronavirus vaccines in existence today. But they're vaccines for cats and dogs. (Simply there aren't enough human coronaviruses that cause us regular problems for us to bother, historically.)

So, it seems likely we will get a vaccine. But timing is the big issue. Some vaccines can cause the human immune system to over-react to a virus. If that happens to one-in-two hundred people, then that might be worse than letting CV-19 run loose.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Rose, isn't that an antibiotic, effectively, for a bacterium?

Could be wrong, I'm rather sleepy and it's some years since I was at school.

rcs1000

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

TGOHF666

The drop in CO2 emissions from Leaving your Fiat 500 at home for a month has been negated.

https://twitter.com/joexhunt/status/1248824851445329922?s=21

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

kamski

TGOHF666 said:

The drop in CO2 emissions from Leaving your Fiat 500 at home for a month has been negated.

https://twitter.com/joexhunt/status/1248824851445329922?s=21

While it's true that volcanoes contribute a tiny amount of CO2 compared to burning fossil fuels, there might be slightly more involved than from a single fiat 500 being driven less for one month.

Foxy

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1248762313001353216?s=19
That rally round the leader effect.

logical_song

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1248762313001353216?s=19
That rally round the leader effect.

Trump as always is part of the problem.

OldKingCole

Morning everyone. The blue-tits in our nesting box were busy nest-building yesterday. If ever there was an activity characterised by occasional bursts of activity interspersed with long periods of, as far as the next itself is concerned, inactivity it appears to be nest-building.
However, looks like there will be eggs in the nest before long, which will mean videos for youngest grandchild.
And Mrs C's friends.

ED. FFS.

logical_song

kamski said:

TGOHF666 said:

The drop in CO2 emissions from Leaving your Fiat 500 at home for a month has been negated.

https://twitter.com/joexhunt/status/1248824851445329922?s=21

While it's true that volcanoes contribute a tiny amount of CO2 compared to burning fossil fuels, there might be slightly more involved than from a single fiat 500 being driven less for one month.

Also erupting volcanoes have been known to cool the atmosphere
https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

Quite. And said punitive lockdowns can't continue indefinitely. The press is already replete with stories of legions of unemployed Italians burning through their savings and facing the very real prospect (especially in the poorer Southern regions) either of starvation, or of being kept fed by handouts from the Mafia, in the not-too-distant future.

I'm sure that our own Government is keenly aware of the large and growing poverty problem at home, and is racing to prepare for a partial relaxation of the lockdown before it becomes economically unsustainable. I suspect that much of the scramble to throw up these Nightingale hospitals left, right and centre is part of the planning for the second wave of infections, not the first.

IanB2

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

Quite. And said punitive lockdowns can't continue indefinitely. The press is already replete with stories of legions of unemployed Italians burning through their savings and facing the very real prospect (especially in the poorer Southern regions) either of starvation, or of being kept fed by handouts from the Mafia, in the not-too-distant future.

I'm sure that our own Government is keenly aware of the large and growing poverty problem at home, and is racing to prepare for a partial relaxation of the lockdown before it becomes economically unsustainable. I suspect that much of the scramble to throw up these Nightingale hospitals left, right and centre is part of the planning for the second wave of infections, not the first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents

IanB2

logical_song said:

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1248762313001353216?s=19
That rally round the leader effect.

Trump as always is part of the problem.

His turning the daily press briefings into self obsessed rants against the world is not impressing.

Foxy

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

CD13

Watching the Horizon programme on Thursday night, they mentioned a novel approach to a vaccine by a UK lab. They use genetically engineered bacteria to manufacture the COVID-19 spike protein in large quantities. A sort of grow your own epitope, I suppose.

If it works, it could be very useful. It will need trials, of course, for efficacy and safety, but fingers crossed.

An easily digestible programme and shows the BBC can still produce decent stuff.

Jonathan

Weird article. Is it about Oxford or the vaccine?

felix

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1248840719168651266

War, pestilence, disease and famine also say hello to The Guardian.

Comparisons to Italy and especially Spain make no sense. the latter has half the people and 3 times the land of the UK. Once again very poor headlines from journalists with an agenda.

felix

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Rose, isn't that an antibiotic, effectively, for a bacterium?

Could be wrong, I'm rather sleepy and it's some years since I was at school.

Only been a few weeks MD - are you missing your teachers?

rkrkrk

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

If there's no vaccine, then perhaps 60-70% are going to get this virus.

Given what we know about the disease, shouldn't the government be doing everything it can to try and get the overweight and obese on a diet (and exercising)?

Yes social distancing, but that's playing for time.
If you're getting the disease, you want to be in the best shape you can be to beat it right?

Well... it is worth remembering that people with type-O blood are significantly less likely to catch the disease, while type-A blood are more likely.

Early on this, makes little difference to the spread of the virus.

But later on, more of the uninfected people are type-O. It becomes harder for the virus to find new carriers because the type-O people are less likely to catch it.

Interestingly, in the UK almost half of people are O, while in China it's only a third.

So, my wild guess is that (left rampant) the disease might well top out at 45-55% of the population.

I think this is probably false hope. They've surely recalculated R0 in the UK context based on the spread of the disease. So any differences in blood type are baked into the estimate of 60-70%...

LostPassword

kamski said:

TGOHF666 said:

The drop in CO2 emissions from Leaving your Fiat 500 at home for a month has been negated.

https://twitter.com/joexhunt/status/1248824851445329922?s=21

While it's true that volcanoes contribute a tiny amount of CO2 compared to burning fossil fuels, there might be slightly more involved than from a single fiat 500 being driven less for one month.

Depends on the volcano and the eruption. I think it's generally the less showy ones that contribute more CO2, while the dramatic explosive eruptions tend to inject sulphate aerosols into the upper atmosphere and cool the climate (temporarily).

rcs1000

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

Quite. And said punitive lockdowns can't continue indefinitely. The press is already replete with stories of legions of unemployed Italians burning through their savings and facing the very real prospect (especially in the poorer Southern regions) either of starvation, or of being kept fed by handouts from the Mafia, in the not-too-distant future.

I'm sure that our own Government is keenly aware of the large and growing poverty problem at home, and is racing to prepare for a partial relaxation of the lockdown before it becomes economically unsustainable. I suspect that much of the scramble to throw up these Nightingale hospitals left, right and centre is part of the planning for the second wave of infections, not the first.

Of course they can't.

This is trivially true.

The question is whether one can partially remove the restrictions so that R is in the 0.5-1.5 range.

The discussions on here all seem to assume that there are two states: complete freedom (R=3), or lockdown (R=0.25). Those are not the only two options.

TheScreamingEagles

Oxford’s a dump, it’s like listening to Alan Clark on fidelity and abstinence.

Oxford were also touting a few weeks ago that most of us already had Covid-19 which turned out to be balls.

MarqueeMark

CD13 said:

Watching the Horizon programme on Thursday night, they mentioned a novel approach to a vaccine by a UK lab. They use genetically engineered bacteria to manufacture the COVID-19 spike protein in large quantities. A sort of grow your own epitope, I suppose.

If it works, it could be very useful. It will need trials, of course, for efficacy and safety, but fingers crossed.

An easily digestible programme and shows the BBC can still produce decent stuff.

Although, the female presenter never seemed to know where the camera was. It happened so often, was it a stylistic thing? If so, don't do it again. It was really distracting.

CarlottaVance

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Felix, been a little longer than that.

Although there was a fair amount of biology in psychology too. Much prefer that to the sociology wing (spoiler: 'society' is to blame for everything. Sod personal agency or biological factors).

MarqueeMark

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

Fortunately our government has a decent relationship with the Chinese and hasn’t been setting them up as political scapegoats so all will be well.

rkrkrk

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Very concerning. I think BME are about twice as likely to have diabetes which could be one explanation.

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

Fortunately our government has a decent relationship with the Chinese and hasn’t been setting them up as political scapegoats so all will be well.

Still depends what the ask is. If they demanded Tibet, Taiwan and the South China Seas be acknowledged by the UN as unquestionably Chinese territory - as the price for getting the world economy going again...?

LostPassword

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

Isn't there something about unreasonable clauses in contracts?

We'll take the vaccine and then I'd like to see them try to enforce any onerous conditions. I believe the Chinese have failed to honour many a commercial agreement and ripped off IP in particular. Maybe they'd start taking that more seriously when they're on the other end.

paulyork64

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Very concerning. I think BME are about twice as likely to have diabetes which could be one explanation.

one of the first nurses who died didn't look BME on TV.

Frank_Booth

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Remarkable. Will need some real analysis to explain that.

isam

The claim that 93% of people dying were not really that ill was based on data from ICUs, which applies to less than 10% of covid-19 deaths. So the really ill people don’t make it to the ICUs?

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1248876683949674496?s=21

LostPassword

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

Quite. And said punitive lockdowns can't continue indefinitely. The press is already replete with stories of legions of unemployed Italians burning through their savings and facing the very real prospect (especially in the poorer Southern regions) either of starvation, or of being kept fed by handouts from the Mafia, in the not-too-distant future.

I'm sure that our own Government is keenly aware of the large and growing poverty problem at home, and is racing to prepare for a partial relaxation of the lockdown before it becomes economically unsustainable. I suspect that much of the scramble to throw up these Nightingale hospitals left, right and centre is part of the planning for the second wave of infections, not the first.

Of course they can't.

This is trivially true.

The question is whether one can partially remove the restrictions so that R is in the 0.5-1.5 range.

The discussions on here all seem to assume that there are two states: complete freedom (R=3), or lockdown (R=0.25). Those are not the only two options.

The problem comes if our lockdown state is only partially effective, with an R ~1. Then we'd only just be keeping a lid on the virus and would have no scope to loosen restrictions.

kjh

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

Agree. Same on TV this morning. The questions were more challenging than on the daily updates.

SandyRentool

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Without a vaccine, you just have to wonder if and when this disease can be effectively brought under control. Stubbornly high rates of infection continue to be the case in Italy, Spain and elsewhere.

Is that really true?

Italy's real infection rate is almost certainly down at least 75% on the peak.

We're fooled by the increase in testing. Two weeks ago, at the "peak", Italy was doing 22,000 tests a day. They're now doing 53,000.

Two weeks ago (and three and four weeks ago), the Italian numbers almost certainly understated the true number of cases massively. (Which is why the positive rate was close to 50%.) Now, the positive rate is 7%.

Add to this the two week delay, and it's likely new infection rates are down 90% from the peak. Is it over for Italy? No. But is it a long way towards being under control? Yes.

Under control with a punitive (but necessary) lockdown. That’s the key point, isn’t it?

Quite. And said punitive lockdowns can't continue indefinitely. The press is already replete with stories of legions of unemployed Italians burning through their savings and facing the very real prospect (especially in the poorer Southern regions) either of starvation, or of being kept fed by handouts from the Mafia, in the not-too-distant future.

I'm sure that our own Government is keenly aware of the large and growing poverty problem at home, and is racing to prepare for a partial relaxation of the lockdown before it becomes economically unsustainable. I suspect that much of the scramble to throw up these Nightingale hospitals left, right and centre is part of the planning for the second wave of infections, not the first.

Of course they can't.

This is trivially true.

The question is whether one can partially remove the restrictions so that R is in the 0.5-1.5 range.

The discussions on here all seem to assume that there are two states: complete freedom (R=3), or lockdown (R=0.25). Those are not the only two options.

The problem comes if our lockdown state is only partially effective, with an R ~1. Then we'd only just be keeping a lid on the virus and would have no scope to loosen restrictions.

Then we'd have 1,000 deaths each day until we reach saturation.

felix

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

isam

felix said:

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

Yes. The point is that this tweet was justified by Sara showing only 7% of ICU admissions were badly ill. But that’s only 10% of deaths and I don’t think you can extrapolate from it

https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1246866119597621248?s=21

SandyRentool

Just seen this on Sky News website:

"The YouGov poll found 12% of Britons surveyed had experienced a common symptom of COVID-19 in the previous seven days."

Even if half or more have something else, add on those who have already had it and those who are asymptomatic, that's a big proportion of the population who have been infected.

Foxy

felix said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1248840719168651266

War, pestilence, disease and famine also say hello to The Guardian.

Comparisons to Italy and especially Spain make no sense. the latter has half the people and 3 times the land of the UK. Once again very poor headlines from journalists with an agenda.

Italy is pretty densely populated, as are Belgium, the Netherlands and New York. Less densely populated countries seem to be doing better, even those with quite big cities. Notably the worst place in Sweden is metropolitan Stockholm.

Dura_Ace

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

He has died his hair with Cherry Blossom shoe polish (presumably in anticipation for the leadership contest that never was after Johnson pulled through) so there's that.

JohnLilburne

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

Foxy

isam said:

The claim that 93% of people dying were not really that ill was based on data from ICUs, which applies to less than 10% of covid-19 deaths. So the really ill people don’t make it to the ICUs?

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1248876683949674496?s=21

Yes, ICU outreach only takes people likely to benefit. Ventilation etc is a gruelling procedure and only justified on those who have a reasonable chance of surviving,

rottenborough

Morning all,

Say Oxford pull this off, and the other Oxford team turn out to be right to speculate that 50% of us have had it already.

What a performance from a former polytechnic.

rottenborough

SandyRentool said:

Just seen this on Sky News website:

"The YouGov poll found 12% of Britons surveyed had experienced a common symptom of COVID-19 in the previous seven days."

Even if half or more have something else, add on those who have already had it and those who are asymptomatic, that's a big proportion of the population who have been infected.

Coronachondria?

Quincel

The risk of ICU data being skewed is addressed by the original thread, which notes it is using data up to 3 April, during a period when capacity was mostly not reached so triage was mostly not necessary. Also there are two 93% figures, one relates to ICU admissions without 'very serious comorbidities' but the other relates to all hospital admissions who were 'able to live without assistance in daily activities'. Even if ICU triage is skewing those figures, the fact almost all people who were hospitalised were living independently beforehand suggests almost all of them had more than a few months to live had they not caught coronavirus.

See thread below.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

SouthamObserver

felix said:

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

The French totals include care homes, I think. The UK and Spanish ones don’t. Not sure about Italy.

Dura_Ace

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

SouthamObserver

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

We’ll just take it, I’d guess. The Chinese will not be able to keep it secret.

TGOHF666

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

The Chinese haven’t invented anything novel themselves since fireworks.

Quincel

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

The French totals include care homes, I think. The UK and Spanish ones don’t. Not sure about Italy.

In truth, just as diagnoses figures became useless as time went on since they were limited by the tests we could do, the confirmed deaths figure isn't desperately useful given the difficulty of assigning deaths to COVID-19 or other causes and different criteria in different countries. The simplest way to get a ballpark figure for the impact is to track excess deaths in each country compared to previous years. That's easy enough for England/Wales using ONS data (which is provisional and imperfect, but close enough for a good starting point), I might try and find Italian/French/Spanish data to compare.

kinabalu

TGOHF666 said:

The Chinese haven’t invented anything novel themselves since fireworks.

I thought they'd invented this virus in that cutting edge lab?

TGOHF666

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Very concerning. I think BME are about twice as likely to have diabetes which could be one explanation.

So you are saying BAME people are fat and unfit ?

Chris

isam said:

The claim that 93% of people dying were not really that ill was based on data from ICUs, which applies to less than 10% of covid-19 deaths. So the really ill people don’t make it to the ICUs?

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1248876683949674496?s=21

Can anyone see any reason why those figures don't show what they seem to show? Apart from the fact that the ICNARC figures don't include Scotland, I can't.

JohnLilburne

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Just seen this on Sky News website:

"The YouGov poll found 12% of Britons surveyed had experienced a common symptom of COVID-19 in the previous seven days."

Even if half or more have something else, add on those who have already had it and those who are asymptomatic, that's a big proportion of the population who have been infected.

Coronachondria?

I've had a tickly throat and slight tightness of the throat for a number of weeks. It's just hay-fever. I'm also feeling tired, more so than I would expect from the amount of exercise I am doing, but apparently that isn't unusual for those adjusting to the social-distancing lifestyle

NickPalmer

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1248762313001353216?s=19
That rally round the leader effect.

A curious detail is that Rasmussen, long-famous for delivering Trump/GOP outliers, has turned more negative than many other polls:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

I'm wary of all the "Trump doing well" and "Trump slumping" stories which tend to select a couple of polls that help the narrative and are shown within days to be random movements. But it's certainly true that he's not benefited to the extent of many national leaders. Merkel's CDU is doing vastly better in the polls now, taking votes from everyone else:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

kinabalu

Foxy said:

Yes, ICU outreach only takes people likely to benefit. Ventilation etc is a gruelling procedure and only justified on those who have a reasonable chance of surviving,

This is why frontline testimony of ICU's being full of middle-aged men is consistent with the general statement that Covid-19 mainly kills the elderly, isn't it?

JohnLilburne

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

rkrkrk

TGOHF666 said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Very concerning. I think BME are about twice as likely to have diabetes which could be one explanation.

So you are saying BAME people are fat and unfit ?

No - they are genetically more likely to get diabetes.
UK govt recommends that BAME try to keep BMI under 23 I think.

IshmaelZ

JohnLilburne said:

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

What's the evidence for that?

Pulpstar

SandyRentool said:

Just seen this on Sky News website:

"The YouGov poll found 12% of Britons surveyed had experienced a common symptom of COVID-19 in the previous seven days."

Even if half or more have something else, add on those who have already had it and those who are asymptomatic, that's a big proportion of the population who have been infected.

It'll be far less than half I think, people will be pondering every tiny throat tickle right now which will be hay fever that normally goes completely without notice.

This has been the case for me and my other half at any rate. @JohnLilburne is similiar.

algarkirk

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

He has died his hair with Cherry Blossom shoe polish (presumably in anticipation for the leadership contest that never was after Johnson pulled through) so there's that.

Perhaps he was over his weekly quota of ill informed "gotcha" interviews and couldn't be bothered to wade through questions that were either over generalised or ludicrously specific. Why don't the BBC get one of their army of well informed experts to do these interviews? Unusually people are listening to these things because they actually want to be informed; the BBC don't seem quite to get this.

Malmesbury

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

We’ll just take it, I’d guess. The Chinese will not be able to keep it secret.

I would be concerned by the Chinese producing a vaccine quickly -

Firstly by the speeding up of trials. Very easy to cut corners.
Secondly by the quality control on the vaccine itself. Again corner cutting. Recent events are not promising for this - various medical items failing inspection.
Thirdly a vaccine will have to be tested in a mass human trial. Who will they use for this? Given the history of the regime in China, we have a right to be very concerned.

CarlottaVance

IshmaelZ said:

JohnLilburne said:

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

What's the evidence for that?

There is some work related to ageing:

https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/how-your-attitudes-affect-your-health

But on cancer, for example, there's no link:

https://www.apa.org/monitor/jan08/cancer

While its good to foster a positive attitude its not remotely the "fault" of those who succumb to disease as if somehow they "didn't fight enough".

Malmesbury

IshmaelZ said:

JohnLilburne said:

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

What's the evidence for that?

This doesn't seem a bad place to start looking for evidence either way -

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/165/2/174.short

MarqueeMark

SandyRentool said:

Just seen this on Sky News website:

"The YouGov poll found 12% of Britons surveyed had experienced a common symptom of COVID-19 in the previous seven days."

Even if half or more have something else, add on those who have already had it and those who are asymptomatic, that's a big proportion of the population who have been infected.

No, it's more likely a big proportion of the population who THINK they have been infected, so they why should they need any test to be allowed out and play with their kids in the park or have a game of football or go and see Gran and Gramps....

Malmesbury

kinabalu said:

Foxy said:

Yes, ICU outreach only takes people likely to benefit. Ventilation etc is a gruelling procedure and only justified on those who have a reasonable chance of surviving,

This is why frontline testimony of ICU's being full of middle-aged men is consistent with the general statement that Covid-19 mainly kills the elderly, isn't it?

Thoughts

- That if correct, one possible cause is that middle aged men survive longer in ICU than the elderly.
- Another possible cause is triage - a doctor will not send a patient for treatment if he/she believes it will not improve their condition.
- Foxy might be able to tell us - what treatment in ICU is available beyond ventilation?
- Ventilation is very hard on the patient - it's not just hooking the patient up to a breathing machine.

Malmesbury

rkrkrk said:

TGOHF666 said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

Very concerning. I think BME are about twice as likely to have diabetes which could be one explanation.

So you are saying BAME people are fat and unfit ?

No - they are genetically more likely to get diabetes.
UK govt recommends that BAME try to keep BMI under 23 I think.

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph46/documents/bmi-and-waist-circumference-black-and-minority-ethnic-groups-draft-guidance2

may be of interest.

SMukesh

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.

SandyRentool

Two pieces of wildly off topic news to report this fine morning.

Firstly, two hedgehogs active in the garden in daylight hours. I'm not sure if their interaction was courtship or one bossing the other. Wor Lass went out to offer them some food, which sent them scuttling into the undergrowth.

Secondly, I've started a new bag of porridge today. More finely milled than the previous bag, so cooks more quickly, but I prefer the courser texture. Some prankster had written on the bag that it should be made with water and salt. I don't think so!

Richard_Tyndall

Worrying news from South Korea yesterday that 91 patients who had previously had and recovered from CV have now tested positive again. Some are asymptomatic but some are now showing fever and respiratory problems again.

That could really mess up any long term immunity plans.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-blow-to-immunity-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?ocid=spartanntp

FeersumEnjineeya

algarkirk said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

He has died his hair with Cherry Blossom shoe polish (presumably in anticipation for the leadership contest that never was after Johnson pulled through) so there's that.

Perhaps he was over his weekly quota of ill informed "gotcha" interviews and couldn't be bothered to wade through questions that were either over generalised or ludicrously specific. Why don't the BBC get one of their army of well informed experts to do these interviews? Unusually people are listening to these things because they actually want to be informed; the BBC don't seem quite to get this.

How inconsiderate that the media don't ask the questions that the politicians would like them to ask!

felix

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

The French totals include care homes, I think. The UK and Spanish ones don’t. Not sure about Italy.

The French ones do now - they didn't before. Nor did Italy. I fear that none of the sites with figures by country can be said to be accurate enough for meaningful comparisons.

JohnLilburne

IshmaelZ said:

JohnLilburne said:

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

What's the evidence for that?

I'm not sure, just something I am sure I have seen. A quick Google brings up plenty of studies saying it doesn't affect survival rates from cancer although it might affect how you feel. I can't find anything more general though. Will have to

It was Dura_Ace that first mentioned character defects though. I would never say that. And in any case, it is just a commonplace thing to say about people who survive illness. It's not a character judgment on everyone else.

kinabalu

SandyRentool said:

Two pieces of wildly off topic news to report this fine morning.

Firstly, two hedgehogs active in the garden in daylight hours. I'm not sure if their interaction was courtship or one bossing the other. Wor Lass went out to offer them some food, which sent them scuttling into the undergrowth.

Secondly, I've started a new bag of porridge today. More finely milled than the previous bag, so cooks more quickly, but I prefer the courser texture. Some prankster had written on the bag that it should be made with water and salt. I don't think so!

In Scotland they put salt rather than sugar on their porridge, I believe.

felix

kinabalu said:

SandyRentool said:

Two pieces of wildly off topic news to report this fine morning.

Firstly, two hedgehogs active in the garden in daylight hours. I'm not sure if their interaction was courtship or one bossing the other. Wor Lass went out to offer them some food, which sent them scuttling into the undergrowth.

Secondly, I've started a new bag of porridge today. More finely milled than the previous bag, so cooks more quickly, but I prefer the courser texture. Some prankster had written on the bag that it should be made with water and salt. I don't think so!

In Scotland they put salt rather than sugar on their porridge, I believe.

Salt cheaper than sugar? I'm sure Malc G would know

SMukesh

SMukesh said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.

A case in point is the picture that accompanies the headline today of Holby city donating ventilators to NHS Nightingale.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52250706

On a different note, Boris went up in my estimate greatly when he gave good representation to people of Asian origin in the cabinet, not the token representation.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1248657977478991879

OldKingCole

JohnLilburne said:

IshmaelZ said:

JohnLilburne said:

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I thought it was well known that mental attitude can have an effect on how you survive illness.

What's the evidence for that?

I'm not sure, just something I am sure I have seen. A quick Google brings up plenty of studies saying it doesn't affect survival rates from cancer although it might affect how you feel. I can't find anything more general though. Will have to

It was Dura_Ace that first mentioned character defects though. I would never say that. And in any case, it is just a commonplace thing to say about people who survive illness. It's not a character judgment on everyone else.

I've posted before, I think, how I rather resent the phrase 'battling with cancer'. I didn't 'battle' with mine; I took the advice of the NHS staff and got on with my life, as far as possible.

Malmesbury

FeersumEnjineeya said:

algarkirk said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

He has died his hair with Cherry Blossom shoe polish (presumably in anticipation for the leadership contest that never was after Johnson pulled through) so there's that.

Perhaps he was over his weekly quota of ill informed "gotcha" interviews and couldn't be bothered to wade through questions that were either over generalised or ludicrously specific. Why don't the BBC get one of their army of well informed experts to do these interviews? Unusually people are listening to these things because they actually want to be informed; the BBC don't seem quite to get this.

How inconsiderate that the media don't ask the questions that the politicians would like them to ask!

The issue comes with the type of gotcha - a classic in this genre is the attempt to get multiple people to say the same thing multiple times in the hope that one person says something different.

If they don't you run a "Government of robots - no comment" story. If someone uses one word different "SPLIT - government about to collapse."

Its like one of those stylised Kendo displays - both the questioner and the questioned know that it doesn't actually mean anything. It's a dance for the pros to judge the style - not the effect.

It does have the effect of ensuring that, providing the politician stick to the script of boring, anodyne answers, hedged with enough vagueness, they can avoid any scrutiny at all.

If you ask as question such as "Has x happened?" - well, its harder to fudge that. So, for example, we got a categorical denial of the "150K deaths from lockdown study" story by Hancock at the briefing yesterday.

isam

This weekend in the South East it’s going to be 25 degrees. On Monday and Tuesday the weather forecast is for it to be less than half that. I predict a lot of people will falsely think they’ve got Covid-19 by Tuesday evening.

kinabalu

Malmesbury said:

Thoughts

- That if correct, one possible cause is that middle aged men survive longer in ICU than the elderly.
- Another possible cause is triage - a doctor will not send a patient for treatment if he/she believes it will not improve their condition.
- Foxy might be able to tell us - what treatment in ICU is available beyond ventilation?
- Ventilation is very hard on the patient - it's not just hooking the patient up to a breathing machine.

Yes I assume it is exactly those factors. In my case based on zero personal experience - for myself or anybody I know - which is how I would like to keep it.

OldKingCole

SMukesh said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.

Daughter-in-law is Thai, so that set of grandchildren are half-Thai. When they come here which minority ethnic are they?
Don't think they'll come here to live or study, but they might.

BluestBlue

Dura_Ace said:

JohnLilburne said:

On BBC news this morning they were talking about a 99 year old war veteran whose strength, fortitude and fighting spirit got him through Covid. Don't they realise this sort of talk is bad?

So the people who do die... is that from some sort of character deficiency?

I can see how that might be a serious worry for some people.

Malmesbury

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1248657977478991879

- ONS records all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned in either the coroners report or on the death certificate
- Doctors have been instructed to put COVID19 on death certificates on the basis of their medical opinion, where a test is not available.
- COVID19 is an official Communicable Disease - hence reporting a diagnosis is mandatory.

For the medical types - what are the penalties for deliberately not reporting a Communicable disease for the the doctor?

eek

Richard_Tyndall said:

Worrying news from South Korea yesterday that 91 patients who had previously had and recovered from CV have now tested positive again. Some are asymptomatic but some are now showing fever and respiratory problems again.

That could really mess up any long term immunity plans.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-blow-to-immunity-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?ocid=spartanntp

I thought this was known - the Chinese doctor who tried to tell the rest of the world about this disease died in when it came back.

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

The interesting thing will be if the Chinese develop the vaccine. But delivery comes with strings attached.

Will Governments refuse?

I don't think Western government will touch it with a barge-pole without extra extensive testing, given the billy bullshitting over the tests and protective equipment they have been flogging. I think every country in Europe now has bought something that has been dangerously defective from China.

The Chinese will be more than willing to take a punt on a vaccine on their own people, and allow corner cutting to enable them to say they were the first in the world to produce a vaccine. The great party leading the world propaganda is already being pumped out daily there.

And there has been so many scandals in China over the past 5-10 years of the safety of items such as milk powder.

Chris

Richard_Tyndall said:

Worrying news from South Korea yesterday that 91 patients who had previously had and recovered from CV have now tested positive again. Some are asymptomatic but some are now showing fever and respiratory problems again.

That could really mess up any long term immunity plans.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-blow-to-immunity-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?ocid=spartanntp

From the report:
"Mr Kim also said patients had likely “relapsed” rather than been re-infected."

kinabalu

CarlottaVance said:

While its good to foster a positive attitude its not remotely the "fault" of those who succumb to disease as if somehow they "didn't fight enough".

I think it should be about what helps mentally, which is not the same for everyone. Some people will want to feel they are in a battle - it helps them cope - whereas others will naturally be more passive and fatalistic. I'm not keen to test this out (obvs) but I am pretty sure I would be of the latter type. I'm not a fighter. Key point, though, is that not being a fighter for these purposes doesn't mean being a quitter. It just means viewing a serious illness as a "whatever will be will be" experience rather than a combat situation.

SMukesh

OldKingCole said:

SMukesh said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.

Daughter-in-law is Thai, so that set of grandchildren are half-Thai. When they come here which minority ethnic are they?
Don't think they'll come here to live or study, but they might.

Yes, they will be `minority ethnic`. There will a correct term for the equality and diversity form if you are interested.

isam

SMukesh said:

Foxy said:

35% of those on ICU are BME, compared with 14% of the population. Bearing in mind that the BME population has a younger Median age, that is quite a high figure, even allowing for the population being more urban. All 10 medical fatalities too.


https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/uk-coronavirus-deaths-bame-doctors-bma?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&__twitter_impression=true

As a South Asian man myself, I don`t like the term BAME. The term almost means that other minorities are just an addition to black people who are the `real minority`.

People of South Asian origin are a higher proportion of the population than black people, yet they are inadequately represented in media portrayal of minorities. The NHS medical dramas hardly have any Asian characters yet if you go to any NHS hospital, you will see that there are more Asian people working there than black people. Especially amongst doctors.

Woefully underrepresented in EastEnders too

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2014/11/is-eastenders-more-racist-than.html

DavidL

kinabalu said:

TGOHF666 said:

The Chinese haven’t invented anything novel themselves since fireworks.

I thought they'd invented this virus in that cutting edge lab?

There is a difference between inventing something and incompetently allowing yourself to become cross-contaminated with it.

kle4

FeersumEnjineeya said:

algarkirk said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hancock sounding tired on R4 and more hesitant and less fluent than usual.

He has died his hair with Cherry Blossom shoe polish (presumably in anticipation for the leadership contest that never was after Johnson pulled through) so there's that.

Perhaps he was over his weekly quota of ill informed "gotcha" interviews and couldn't be bothered to wade through questions that were either over generalised or ludicrously specific. Why don't the BBC get one of their army of well informed experts to do these interviews? Unusually people are listening to these things because they actually want to be informed; the BBC don't seem quite to get this.

How inconsiderate that the media don't ask the questions that the politicians would like them to ask!

We're still pretending thats the issue? Despite suggestions of some effective and awkward questions that could be asked which the politicians would like less without being trivial gotcha questions?

IanB2

felix said:

It would not surprise at all if a high proportion of deaths among the elderly - in care homes or elsewhere - did not make it to ICU. That is definitely the case here in Spain, in France and in Italy. However, I wouldn't attach a sinister motive to this. There are many cases surely where the ordeal of ICU would be more dangerous than the disease and the fatal ourcome pretty inevitable any way. There is no pla to let the elderly go before their time - from doctors, governments or anyone else. Surely it is just part of the cycle we are all on in this life.
Of course we should be ever vigilant but not paranoid please

And the average time between entering a care home and death is sadly only about nine months, prior to the virus.