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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It won’t be Brexit that defines Boris but the decisions he mad

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  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Y
    RobD said:

    ukpaul said:

    RobD said:

    ukpaul said:

    RobD said:

    ukpaul said:

    RobD said:

    ukpaul said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
    The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
    Never trust anything on the internet......

    I imagine however, given their actual message, that they would be much happier treating people who haven't deliberately flouted any lockdown measures. If these are becoming less completely complied with, maybe the threat of that would work wonders. 'Leave home and you'll be put at the back of the queue for treatment' might be a much more effective sanction than 'Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives'.
    What's that got to do with Tory voters? And anyway, I thought the NHS was supposed to be universal, regardless of how good of a person you have been.
    I was referring to the 'original message' about staying at home. Given that decisions are having to be made regarding age, existing conditions and such (as is also the case with other conditions and smoking, obesity etc.), should people who have flouted the measures be given the same treatment as someone that they have infected? If they were young and previously fit, had attended a party that resulted in them being infected and then subsequently infected someone with a pre-existing condition, should they be given priority whilst that person is triaged and denied it? If decisions are being made, should those be solely on likelihood to survive or also take into consideration any reckless behaviour on the infected person's part? As the danger is multiplied through people behaving in such a manner, then why not consider it?
    We've already seen one example of someone being wrongly convicted of a crime they didn't commit with the new coronavirus act. What if someone was wrongly denied treatment?

    I assume under your scheme we'd still be treating the most dangerous criminals who had contracted it because they respected the rules on social isolation, but not someone who popped out for a jog twice in one day rather than once? Doesn't seem right to me.
    Yes, there are different levels of intent, they would have to had very clearly done so on purpose (such as the blowhards going on about how, at Easter, they are going to go out and do what they want and bugger the consequences, or someone deliberately spreading it with video evidence). Having a jog twice a day doesn't cut it.

    If that dangerous criminal had killed someone through reckless driving, say, then they've been punished already for their behaviour. I don't see why they need to be sanctioned for something completely separate.

    There's already a sanction for going outside when you shouldn't under the new provisions. Why should they get a potential death penalty in addition?
    There is a severity that I think warrants greater sanction at the moment. As with dangerous driving, it would be up to the courts to decide. This is life or death, yet people seem to be treating it like a minor nuisance. It could conceivably get to the stage where asking people to be good isn't enough and the threat of something tougher is needed. People doing such things seem to think they are invincible and that their behaviour doesn't threaten the safety of others, so why not deprioritise them if hospitals start to get overrun?
    The punishment should be dealt with in the courts, not in the NHS.
    I agree, so as reckless driver has their ability to drive removed, their endangering of the lives of others could also then be appropriately sanctioned.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:


    My Dad has had his biopsy to see if the chemo cleared his cancer cancelled, yet we have an empty 4,000 capacity hospital a twenty minute drive away. Why should I applaud the people ignoring him, or not feel annoyed at other people applauding them?

    The reason his biopsy has been cancelled is almost certainly to avoid exposing him to additional risk at a time when his immune system will be weak.
    I don’t think so, it was because it was non essential I believe. He hasn’t had the govt text to say he’s vulnerable and has to stay in, this despite being 73, having sepsis and cancer (Superficial bladder does not the most serious) in the last 6 months, as well as being an asthmatic on warfarin.

    So he’s out everyday walking... and my mums going to the shops.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    OT shopping news -- long queues at several supermarkets. Not sure if this is in response to reports of restocking or just that Friday is normally busy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    An interesting article on testing - for the US

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/americas-covid-19-testing-has-stalled-and-thats-a-big-problem/

    For those that haven't encountered it, ArsTechnica is always worth reading on a topic.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    Not really. It's consistent with the V shaped recovery that has been mooted, and NB -30% followed by +30% still leaves you at just 91% of where you were originally.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    I tell you what though, it feels like we’re all finally coming out of the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps, and new camps are forming.

    Adult self-policing Liberals versus Parent do as you're told Authoritarians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    tlg86 said:

    I tell you what though, it feels like we’re all finally coming out of the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps, and new camps are forming.

    This time it's remain in lockdown v leave to normality.
    I’d be happy to ‘return to normality’, yet that is going to take a long, long time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Barnesian said:

    I tell you what though, it feels like we’re all finally coming out of the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps, and new camps are forming.

    Adult self-policing Liberals versus Parent do as you're told Authoritarians.
    And just which category would Hitchens fall into ?
    Both or neither ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.

    The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.

    They can fuck off.

    Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.

    Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
    It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
    Fair enough, I was unaware of it.

    Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
    If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
    If I got disquieted by everything that was said on social media I would never get out of bed in the morning.

    So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
    Perhaps not actually ban people from being mawkish arseholes, but on the other hand not institutionalise it like a Two Minutes Hate? I really don't like people who think there are acceptable levels of "soft" intimidation and vigilantism.
    Millions of people want to show their appreciation to the NHS. If they want to do that for 5 minutes once a week what exactly is your problem?

    I can understand that some people don't want to take part but I cannot understand why it winds people like you and Casino Royale up into a frenzy.
    I'm in the wound category I am afraid. I don't feel that strongly about it, but I certainly don't want to do it and I do find the clapping police appalling. I have the same view of people getting together to pray as Christians around the world did a few days ago altogether.

    I suspect for a large number of these people it is all they then do and then feel good about themselves having done bugger all useful. I suggest they stop praying and clapping and get off their arses and do something.
    The clapping itself is fine. The problem is the arseholes who try and turn everything into a virtue signalling competition.

    As far as I am concerned, such people go on The List.
    Clapping is the new poppy-ism.

    When people start going out into the streets dressed as a giant pair of hands, that's when we all need to worry.

    Surely only a week or two away now...
    They will go at the top of The List, with an asterix against their names.
    That would be seriously gauling.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    To Swedes, it’s the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/

    Based on the Italian lockdown experience I have a feeling Swedens approach may be better. This is such an odd virus. I know I keep on about it but yesterdays Italian new case figure of over 4000 new cases 24 days into a lockdown is hard for me to comprehend. I know people will say latent lag and families etc but over 4000+ cases is such a high figure for a country in lockdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    I agree, it does
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    isam said:

    isam said:


    My Dad has had his biopsy to see if the chemo cleared his cancer cancelled, yet we have an empty 4,000 capacity hospital a twenty minute drive away. Why should I applaud the people ignoring him, or not feel annoyed at other people applauding them?

    The reason his biopsy has been cancelled is almost certainly to avoid exposing him to additional risk at a time when his immune system will be weak.
    I don’t think so, it was because it was non essential I believe. He hasn’t had the govt text to say he’s vulnerable and has to stay in, this despite being 73, having sepsis and cancer (Superficial bladder does not the most serious) in the last 6 months, as well as being an asthmatic on warfarin.

    So he’s out everyday walking... and my mums going to the shops.
    Apply via https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable on his behalf.

    The site explicitly says that you can do so on behalf of others.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Revisiting Mr Meeks' thread-header from 19 February ...

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/02/19/a-journal-of-the-plague-year-the-politics-of-covid-19/

    ... the spreadsheet model was unduly optimistic.

    We are already a month ahead of schedule, in spite of worldwide lockdowns.

    I think the spreadshseet model grossly under-estimated the number of initial cases.

    But that is a good thing! Because it means it is probably either over-estimating transmissibility or mortality. The real world death graph had an infelction point that the spreadsheet model didn't have. The spreadsheet model is the "what if we don't do anything" model. We can do things to adjust the curve
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    To Swedes, it’s the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/

    Based on the Italian lockdown experience I have a feeling Swedens approach may be better. This is such an odd virus. I know I keep on about it but yesterdays Italian new case figure of over 4000 new cases 24 days into a lockdown is hard for me to comprehend. I know people will say latent lag and families etc but over 4000+ cases is such a high figure for a country in lockdown.
    How have their testing figures changed over those 24 days? Case numbers are meaningless without knowing how many were tested.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    IanB2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.

    The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.

    They can fuck off.

    Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.

    Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
    It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
    Fair enough, I was unaware of it.

    Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
    If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
    If I got disquieted by everything that was said on social media I would never get out of bed in the morning.

    So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
    Perhaps not actually ban people from being mawkish arseholes, but on the other hand not institutionalise it like a Two Minutes Hate? I really don't like people who think there are acceptable levels of "soft" intimidation and vigilantism.
    Millions of people want to show their appreciation to the NHS. If they want to do that for 5 minutes once a week what exactly is your problem?

    I can understand that some people don't want to take part but I cannot understand why it winds people like you and Casino Royale up into a frenzy.
    I'm in the wound category I am afraid. I don't feel that strongly about it, but I certainly don't want to do it and I do find the clapping police appalling. I have the same view of people getting together to pray as Christians around the world did a few days ago altogether.

    I suspect for a large number of these people it is all they then do and then feel good about themselves having done bugger all useful. I suggest they stop praying and clapping and get off their arses and do something.
    The clapping itself is fine. The problem is the arseholes who try and turn everything into a virtue signalling competition.

    As far as I am concerned, such people go on The List.
    Clapping is the new poppy-ism.

    When people start going out into the streets dressed as a giant pair of hands, that's when we all need to worry.

    Surely only a week or two away now...
    They will go at the top of The List, with an asterix against their names.
    That would be seriously gauling.
    It will be. It will be.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
    Forensic, schmorensic. Far too much is made of this. I don't know what Starmer's reputation as an advocate was like, but he gave up advocacy quite early on in favour of the DPP role and one thing DPPs don't do, is prosecute. As an advocate he did human rights defence stuff which I imagine doesn't lend itself to brilliant Aha, we've wheedled it out of you at last sort of cross examination - more If I could take your lordship to para 453 of the 5th schedule to the Act sort of stuff. And anyway when did forensically brilliant attacks actually damage a PM? There's a sort of rule of thumb among litigators which says that 90% of cases go the way they were always going to go, 9% are lost against the run of play by legal incompetence, and 1% won by legal brilliance, and that sounds about right for politics. Whatever Johnson's downfall is, it won't be anyone getting forensic on his ass, it will be something he does or doesn't do. There will be opportunities for showpiece attacks on him as it all goes pear-shaped but they won't be what made the difference.

    Plus as you say, now is not the time to be seen to be making party political attacks on the PM.
    Look, they're excited. They have a leader who can string a coherent sentence together using more than one polysyllable work. Don't spoil it.
    The blue team said the same when Michael Howard took over: a barrister who would forensically destroy Tony Blair at PMQs. It did not happen then and I do not suppose it will happen now. In the normal course of events, the Prime Minister should win nearly all exchanges given he has the file of prepared answers, and the last word.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This is not enough. There needs to be another cross-channel address that explicitly tells people NOT to go out at the weekend, even if the weather is nice.

    It needs to be clear and direct.
    People can't exercise outside the house ? Since when ?

    You are proving my point.

    “It will be fine to go out for a 5 hour day trip on Saturday, as we are allowed to exercise. We might even meet Phil and Jan and their 2 kids whilst we’re there.”

    The communication strategy is still poor.
    You're proving my point. Someone who interprets the message in that way is knowingly interpreting it to take the piss and evade restriction, and theyd find another reason for their action or simply flout it anyway. They would not be confused (ok, a minority a best) but using that as cover.
    I’m not justifying their actions, merely suggesting that maybe the message could be more “idiot proof”. I don’t think that’s really controversial.
    Not saying you're justifying it. Abd things could be more idiot proof. I just think flouters like that are mostly willful, not confused idiots, so idiot proofing only goes so far.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    OT shopping news -- long queues at several supermarkets. Not sure if this is in response to reports of restocking or just that Friday is normally busy.

    You have to queue 2 metres apart and supermarkets are limiting customer numbers in store that is why
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
    Forensic, schmorensic. Far too much is made of this. I don't know what Starmer's reputation as an advocate was like, but he gave up advocacy quite early on in favour of the DPP role and one thing DPPs don't do, is prosecute. As an advocate he did human rights defence stuff which I imagine doesn't lend itself to brilliant Aha, we've wheedled it out of you at last sort of cross examination - more If I could take your lordship to para 453 of the 5th schedule to the Act sort of stuff. And anyway when did forensically brilliant attacks actually damage a PM? There's a sort of rule of thumb among litigators which says that 90% of cases go the way they were always going to go, 9% are lost against the run of play by legal incompetence, and 1% won by legal brilliance, and that sounds about right for politics. Whatever Johnson's downfall is, it won't be anyone getting forensic on his ass, it will be something he does or doesn't do. There will be opportunities for showpiece attacks on him as it all goes pear-shaped but they won't be what made the difference.

    Plus as you say, now is not the time to be seen to be making party political attacks on the PM.
    Look, they're excited. They have a leader who can string a coherent sentence together using more than one polysyllable work. Don't spoil it.
    The blue team said the same when Michael Howard took over: a barrister who would forensically destroy Tony Blair at PMQs. It did not happen then and I do not suppose it will happen now. In the normal course of events, the Prime Minister should win nearly all exchanges given he has the file of prepared answers, and the last word.
    And anyway the only prize for winning PMQs is a majority verdict on PB that you won PMQs. So what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Pulpstar said:

    Have to say NHS Nightingale is a staggering achievement by the Gov't to be put together in 10 days.

    I'd not believe this country capable of it. Terrified of some unforeseen shoe dropping.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    Not really. It's consistent with the V shaped recovery that has been mooted, and NB -30% followed by +30% still leaves you at just 91% of where you were originally.
    These are more than likely annualised figures so need to be divided by 4 for chained volume.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    OT shopping news -- long queues at several supermarkets. Not sure if this is in response to reports of restocking or just that Friday is normally busy.

    You have to queue 2 metres apart and supermarkets are limiting customer numbers in store that is why
    Our local Boots is the same - the queue stretches to the end of the street, around the corner, and half way up the hill. Apparently at closing time the staff come out on the dot to close the door and tell the remaining queuers to come back tomorrow.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
    It doesn't.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
    It might be true that there will be a rush to buy items that people have delayed buying. But people won't go to the pub and buy all the pints of beer they didn't buy in April (my dad will try, though).
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
    Forensic, schmorensic. Far too much is made of this. I don't know what Starmer's reputation as an advocate was like, but he gave up advocacy quite early on in favour of the DPP role and one thing DPPs don't do, is prosecute. As an advocate he did human rights defence stuff which I imagine doesn't lend itself to brilliant Aha, we've wheedled it out of you at last sort of cross examination - more If I could take your lordship to para 453 of the 5th schedule to the Act sort of stuff. And anyway when did forensically brilliant attacks actually damage a PM? There's a sort of rule of thumb among litigators which says that 90% of cases go the way they were always going to go, 9% are lost against the run of play by legal incompetence, and 1% won by legal brilliance, and that sounds about right for politics. Whatever Johnson's downfall is, it won't be anyone getting forensic on his ass, it will be something he does or doesn't do. There will be opportunities for showpiece attacks on him as it all goes pear-shaped but they won't be what made the difference.

    Plus as you say, now is not the time to be seen to be making party political attacks on the PM.
    Look, they're excited. They have a leader who can string a coherent sentence together using more than one polysyllable work. Don't spoil it.
    The blue team said the same when Michael Howard took over: a barrister who would forensically destroy Tony Blair at PMQs. It did not happen then and I do not suppose it will happen now. In the normal course of events, the Prime Minister should win nearly all exchanges given he has the file of prepared answers, and the last word.
    My word of advise to Starmer would be

    'No one likes the class swot'. As a first impression, the more he leans on trying to look clever, and look..well like a lawyer the worse people will think of him.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I think it'll be bigger than that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pulpstar said:

    Seems to be crossover between the get back to work/Brexit & stay indoors/remain to me.

    There definitely is - which is interesting.

    I suppose the "Experts? Pah!" and the infamous "We stood alone in 1940, we can do it again" Brexit sentiments both play into the robust/reckless (delete to taste) "Let's Get Back To Work" tendency.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have to say NHS Nightingale is a staggering achievement by the Gov't to be put together in 10 days.

    I'd not believe this country capable of it. Terrified of some unforeseen shoe dropping.
    The intelligent bit is repurposing an existing building. The more you look at it, convention centres are ideal for this sort of thing.

    The Chinese hospital will have severe issues with the structure within the year - they must have been using chemical accelerants to cure the concrete faster. Which works, but virtually guarantees spalling and cracking later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
    It doesn't.
    I take the points made, it doesnt literally negate it, but the coincidence of the two 30s still strikes me
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,265
    edited April 2020
    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
    Wrong! 100 * 0.7 * 1.3 = 91.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I tell you what though, it feels like we’re all finally coming out of the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps, and new camps are forming.

    Adult self-policing Liberals versus Parent do as you're told Authoritarians.
    And just which category would Hitchens fall into ?
    Both or neither ?
    Good question. He's an outlier. He's certainly not a Parent do as you're told Authoritarian. Possibly a Child why should I Grump.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems to be crossover between the get back to work/Brexit & stay indoors/remain to me.

    There definitely is - which is interesting.

    I suppose the "Experts? Pah!" and the infamous "We stood alone in 1940, we can do it again" Brexit sentiments both play into the robust/reckless (delete to taste) "Let's Get Back To Work" tendency.
    "Get back to work/Brexit" - may be poorer (generally)?
    "Stay indoors/remain" - may be richer and/or largely public sector and thus have little to lose (economically) from lockdown?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Pulpstar said:

    Have to say NHS Nightingale is a staggering achievement by the Gov't to be put together in 10 days.

    100% agree. Truly an impressive feat, and especially impressive that we’re now sharing the “instruction manual” around the world. The first time I’ve been “proud” of something we’ve done as a country for a while.
    I hope the colonel, who was about to retire who led the project gets a knighthood.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I think it'll be bigger than that.
    Using the end of this year is a bit arbitrary - where will we be at the end of 2021 is a better metric of the impact.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I make it a 4.3% annual fall, including the Q1 decline of 7%.

    Q4 could be almost literally anything, depending on how the virus progresses.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    TGOHF666 said:
    Interesting that the early cluster in Devon disappeared.

    Eadric appears to have chosen his bolt hole location most unwisely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,557
    Andy_JS said:

    Something you never expected to read:

    "In Manchester police have been dropping off Easter eggs to residents stuck inside their homes as the lockdown continues."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52143728

    Leaving your house to drop off chocolate doesn't sound like a reasonable excuse for leaving your house. Maybe Derbyshire Police could institute proceedings.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Something you never expected to read:

    "In Manchester police have been dropping off Easter eggs to residents stuck inside their homes as the lockdown continues."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52143728

    Leaving your house to drop off chocolate doesn't sound like a reasonable excuse for leaving your house. Maybe Derbyshire Police could institute proceedings.
    Send the armed police, just to be sure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I think it'll be bigger than that.
    The total fall will be closer to 5% as we also need to take into account the 2.5% lost growth the US would have had.

    That feels about right for the economy being put on hold for 6 months or so. The difficult to know factor is whether people will have a splurge or be worried about this happening again and not spend in Q4.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    kjh said:

    I'm in the wound category I am afraid. I don't feel that strongly about it, but I certainly don't want to do it and I do find the clapping police appalling. I have the same view of people getting together to pray as Christians around the world did a few days ago altogether.

    I suspect for a large number of these people it is all they then do and then feel good about themselves having done bugger all useful. I suggest they stop praying and clapping and get off their arses and do something.

    Do we not want them ON their arses?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Flight off to Alaska just whizzed past my window, wonder what it is up to.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    edited April 2020
    Endillion said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I make it a 4.3% annual fall, including the Q1 decline of 7%.

    Q4 could be almost literally anything, depending on how the virus progresses.
    I think the 30% down 30% up thing is your basic wildass guess - Shit will happen, then everyone will go spend crazy when they get out.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    According to 'Ask The Police' site, pedestrians do have the right of way and:

    "Yes they do, it is an offence not to give precedence to a pedestrian on a zebra crossing.

    As you approach a zebra crossing:

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing".

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    They also imply that the mainstay of the original UK strategy to "flatten the peak" - hand-washing - would have had minimal effectiveness, although it was initially presented as the very best way of combatting the spread of the virus.

    Perhaps much of that is because handwashing is (a) something that everyone can easily do, and (b) is a good habit to get into, regardless.

    For example, let us say that in reality one of the most effective ways to deter the virus is to chew tobacco. Would the government push this advice forcefully? Spittoons in every supermarket? Not sure.
    It is also notable that hand washing & not touching face etc massively reduces the transmission of other, similar viruses.
    Work sent an email suggesting the clean hand, dirty hand technique familiar to nurses and nappy-changers. Because most people naturally use their dominant hand to touch their faces, and it is hard to stop that, you should make an effort always to use the other hand for opening doors, pressing buttons and so on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    MaxPB said:

    The total fall will be closer to 5% as we also need to take into account the 2.5% lost growth the US would have had.

    That feels about right for the economy being put on hold for 6 months or so. The difficult to know factor is whether people will have a splurge or be worried about this happening again and not spend in Q4.

    Q4 will not be great if there is a 2nd wave of Covid-19.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Something you never expected to read:

    "In Manchester police have been dropping off Easter eggs to residents stuck inside their homes as the lockdown continues."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52143728

    Leaving your house to drop off chocolate doesn't sound like a reasonable excuse for leaving your house. Maybe Derbyshire Police could institute proceedings.
    Send the armed police, just to be sure.

    On second thoughts, everyone involved should be arrested and convicted under the "Act I Just Made Up" (2020).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    Fake news

    Highway Code Rule 195 (for drivers) states as follows:

    Rule 195
    Zebra crossings. As you approach a zebra crossing

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:
    Other than the human cost, the saddest thing about all this is not knowing whether Tiger Roll would have made it 3 in a row.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited April 2020
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    They also imply that the mainstay of the original UK strategy to "flatten the peak" - hand-washing - would have had minimal effectiveness, although it was initially presented as the very best way of combatting the spread of the virus.

    Perhaps much of that is because handwashing is (a) something that everyone can easily do, and (b) is a good habit to get into, regardless.

    For example, let us say that in reality one of the most effective ways to not get the virus is to chew tobacco. Would the government have pushed that advice forcefully? Spittoons in every supermarket? Not sure.
    You must have seen the news that British American Tobacco is working on a cure grown from tobacco plants. :p
    The industry has been working on the tobacco mosaic virus (and many other plant viruses), and its engineering for the production of biological pharmaceuticals, for many decades.
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2019.00803/full
    The plant production route is probably best suited for vaccines, out of all other bio-therapeutics, as eliciting an immune response, which could be an undesired problem with other products, is not so with a vaccine.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Andy_JS said:
    I`ve just had £4 on Ballyoptic with Lads at 25/1.

    It says max bet £10 - so why did they limit me to £4 (it doesn`t say max payout £100)?

    Any ideas?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    According to 'Ask The Police' site, pedestrians do have the right of way and:

    "Yes they do, it is an offence not to give precedence to a pedestrian on a zebra crossing.

    As you approach a zebra crossing:

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing".

    The bit few drivers seem to know is the requirement to give way to pedestrians crossing a road into which you are turning.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    As a regular cyclist, with a bell, I regularly use shared routes, I get grief from pedestrians if I do use my bell, "No need to ring like that", I get grief if I do not use the bell, I get grief when I use the bell but the pedestrian is deaf.

    I get grief from the drunks under the canal bridges.
    So many people say you cannot ride a bike here, I always check, and am right.
    I have had horse riders telling me this is a Bridleway for horses, you are not allowed etc. Sometimes it is hard to be a cyclist.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    No, pedestrians have right of way at zebra crossings. Anyone who fails to give way (including cyclists) is guilty of driving to the public danger.

    However, in the same way that the man with a gun has no right to your wallet but it's more sensible to give him the wallet than get shot through the head, so it is sensible to wait until the traffic has stopped before stepping into the road rather than get run over by @Dura_Ace or one of his ilk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Endillion said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    That looks astonishingly optimistic...

    Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.
    Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.
    I make it a 4.3% annual fall, including the Q1 decline of 7%.

    Q4 could be almost literally anything, depending on how the virus progresses.
    Can you take me through that calculation?

    I have it as 100 * 0.9825 * 0.925 * 0.9975 * 1.075 = 0.9745
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    The total fall will be closer to 5% as we also need to take into account the 2.5% lost growth the US would have had.

    That feels about right for the economy being put on hold for 6 months or so. The difficult to know factor is whether people will have a splurge or be worried about this happening again and not spend in Q4.

    Q4 will not be great if there is a 2nd wave of Covid-19.
    Yes, this is also on the assumption of no second wave and lockdown restrictions being fully lifted. There's definitely no guarantee of that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    No, pedestrians have right of way at zebra crossings. Anyone who fails to give way (including cyclists) is guilty of driving to the public danger.

    However, in the same way that the man with a gun has no right to your wallet but it's more sensible to give him the wallet than get shot through the head, so it is sensible to wait until the traffic has stopped before stepping into the road rather than get run over by @Dura_Ace or one of his ilk.
    Dura Ace is odds on not to have passed his driving test
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    New thread
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RobD said:

    To Swedes, it’s the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/

    Based on the Italian lockdown experience I have a feeling Swedens approach may be better. This is such an odd virus. I know I keep on about it but yesterdays Italian new case figure of over 4000 new cases 24 days into a lockdown is hard for me to comprehend. I know people will say latent lag and families etc but over 4000+ cases is such a high figure for a country in lockdown.
    How have their testing figures changed over those 24 days? Case numbers are meaningless without knowing how many were tested.
    I dont think case numbers are meaningless, what these case numbers show is that thousands of italians are still getting infected 24 days into a lockdown
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    To Swedes, it’s the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/

    Based on the Italian lockdown experience I have a feeling Swedens approach may be better. This is such an odd virus. I know I keep on about it but yesterdays Italian new case figure of over 4000 new cases 24 days into a lockdown is hard for me to comprehend. I know people will say latent lag and families etc but over 4000+ cases is such a high figure for a country in lockdown.
    How have their testing figures changed over those 24 days? Case numbers are meaningless without knowing how many were tested.
    I dont think case numbers are meaningless, what these case numbers show is that thousands of italians are still getting infected 24 days into a lockdown
    But that could be way down on previous infection rates.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4Q looks err... bold.
    What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.
    Wrong! 100 * 0.7 * 1.3 = 91.
    Do the growth figures refer to a comparison with the previous quarter, or, as is more usual, to the same quarter the preceding year, though ?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,265

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    Fake news

    Highway Code Rule 195 (for drivers) states as follows:

    Rule 195
    Zebra crossings. As you approach a zebra crossing

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing.
    Key words are "look out for pedestrians waiting to cross". The problem is people walking along the pavement who suddenly turn through 90 degrees and cross without warning. They are the ones who need to be alerted (for their own sake).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    This thread has

    crossed the road.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    nichomar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have to say NHS Nightingale is a staggering achievement by the Gov't to be put together in 10 days.

    100% agree. Truly an impressive feat, and especially impressive that we’re now sharing the “instruction manual” around the world. The first time I’ve been “proud” of something we’ve done as a country for a while.
    I hope the colonel, who was about to retire who led the project gets a knighthood.
    He has something far more valuable: a footnote in the history books.
  • johnoundlejohnoundle Posts: 120
    edited April 2020

    To Swedes, it’s the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


    Sweden pop 10.1m 6,078 cases with 333 deaths
    Portugal pop 10.2 m 9,896 cases with 246 deaths
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    According to 'Ask The Police' site, pedestrians do have the right of way and:

    "Yes they do, it is an offence not to give precedence to a pedestrian on a zebra crossing.

    As you approach a zebra crossing:

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing".

    What annoys me is drivers turning into a road you're already crossing and not slowing down because "you're in the road".

    My niece very nearly got hit by one of those morons recently.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838
    IanB2 said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    According to 'Ask The Police' site, pedestrians do have the right of way and:

    "Yes they do, it is an offence not to give precedence to a pedestrian on a zebra crossing.

    As you approach a zebra crossing:

    look out for pedestrians waiting to cross and be ready to slow down or stop to let them cross
    you MUST give way when a pedestrian has moved onto a crossing
    allow more time for stopping on wet or icy roads
    do not wave or use your horn to invite pedestrians across; this could be dangerous if another vehicle is approaching
    be aware of pedestrians approaching from the side of the crossing".

    The bit few drivers seem to know is the requirement to give way to pedestrians crossing a road into which you are turning.
    Crossing yes - About to cross no
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    "Get back to work/Brexit" - may be poorer (generally)?
    "Stay indoors/remain" - may be richer and/or largely public sector and thus have little to lose (economically) from lockdown?

    Economic self-interest must be a massive factor, yes. I bet there are plenty of people dossing at home on full pay (public or private sector) who are very sanguine indeed about the situation. Interestingly on the Brexit comparison it might work the other way too. People voted Brexit despite the economics. It was for many (most IMO) an identity matter. So, here, the idea that we "fight this virus like a man not a woman" (Bolsonaro), this is about identity also. That we are men not mice. Because I think that's what he meant. If he didn't, what an appalling chauvinist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Andy_JS said:

    This is interesting:

    "No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist
    Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought

    Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus.
    Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

    3 weeks ago now (and it seems so much longer) I had coffee with a fellow advocate and another friend. The fellow advocate was subsequently confirmed to have the virus by hospital. By the time that I was told the guidance had changed and did not need to self isolate because I had no symptoms (and have had none since). My friend, however, did and is convinced that he got it, albeit he was not tested in hospital. He had a bad cough, very tight lungs, no sense of taste and utter exhaustion.

    We spent about half an hour's time in each other's company, much longer than you would have contact with anyone whilst shopping but perhaps not that different from a hairdresser. We were not particularly close being on 3 sides of a table. I was genuinely surprised that my friend caught it that way but he was not aware of any other exposure.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Exactly my thoughts...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    Except if you stood at the edge waiting for cyclists to stop for you you could be there all day
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    JohnO said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.

    I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
    Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.

    Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
    Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
    Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.

    Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
    Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.
    Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.
    A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.

    There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
    Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.
    As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.
    Fake Highway Code alert.

    What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."

    It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
    Except if you stood at the edge waiting for cyclists to stop for you you could be there all day
    Cyclists tend to be the most arrogant of all road users it seems. 100% the cyclist should stop if there's people waiting at a zebra crossing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Interesting developments today regarding the science of transmission.

    It would mean that many pubs will have to stay closed for a while – but quite possibly some will be able to reopen as long as they serve customers at the table, ideally outdoors in a beer garden.

    Let's see.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Interesting that the early cluster in Devon disappeared.
    Eadric appears to have chosen his bolt hole location most unwisely.
    They were probably OK until Eadric got there.....
This discussion has been closed.