Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
To do so would be an outright lie. What an utterly distasteful post.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The government was slow to spot the danger, slow to warm up the public to the danger and slow to take the necessary measures to lock down. It has been slow at procurement and slow to put into place the financial measures required.
On all fronts it eventually did the right thing. The cost of this government’s lethargy has yet to be calculated.
The UK government’s handling of the crisis - health-wise and economic - has been mainstream European. What’s happened here is pretty much what’s happened across the continent. It’s fascinating to see all the criticisms here are exactly the ones being levelled at other governments. Everyone was too complacent for too long, everyone has taken stringent action subsequently, everyone is discovering that decisions previously taken are becoming millstones, everyone is thanking God that Donald Trump is not in charge.
I did a thread header on the subject on 19 February:
"If you aren’t worried, you haven’t been paying attention."
My final line was:
"Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful."
The first Cobra meeting on the subject was held on 2 March.
I was no great seer (though as a treat I will let you see which poster commented "Alastair Meeks has turned into a cross between Eeyore and Private Fraser"). I was simply commenting on what had been widely reported on. Yet the government seems to have been altogether too casual about an obvious threat.
I agree that it was not the only government to make that mistake. That should not absolve it.
If the government has made any mistakes they are in the area of not learning from other countries given they had a ten day cushion. The shut down could have been sooner and could have been stricter but maybe it was policy?
They got there in the end but you are right they should have taken more advantage of the evidence of what was happening elsewhere.
They definitely flirted with the herd-immunity idea to begin with however much the Johnson rappers try to airbrush it out of the picture.
They are doing fine now and there will be few complaints if the testing & PPE issues get resolved.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
Extremely quiet in my part of Newcastle too.
I don't think car or foot traffic round my neighbourhood in Huddersfield has changed in any noticeable way since day 1.
As I said yesterday I am in rural Lincolnshire and sadly I am seeing a lot more non-lorry traffic on the roads this week compared to last. The morning and evening commute hours are markedly quieter still but people still seem to be out and about in large numbers the rest of the day.
Sadly the same on the roads here in metropolitan Dorset - and I'm even seeing people waiting at bus stops again. In the last two days I have seen a marked increase whilst walking the dog - but it will be interesting to see if it is the same today. Yesterday and wednesday: beautiful weather. Today; cloudy and dull...
Similar story here in Leamington.
So, this will be 'interesting'. Will Johnson have to really clamp down on the lockdown now it seems we are seeing signs in some parts of country of a drift back to normality? Or, will they let it ride and see where the numbers take them?
Advocating playing politics with this is one of the reasons I have such a dim view of you Edmund.
This website is about betting on politics, and by extension what kind of things politicians should do *if they want to win elections*. That's normally the right way to read "politician X should do Y" here, and I think that includes the comments I was replying to.
That said, if we were going to talk about what he should do from the point of view of what we would like politicians to do instead of what they will (often unjustly) be rewarded for doing, I'd choose "opposition leader opposes, makes justified criticisms, asks how the government will avoid making the same mistake in future", which doesn't really contradict the winning-elections should in this case.
I agree that a locking knife is safer to use, but it can be considerably more dangerous if used to stab somebody. I imagine that even a relatively short locked blade will be capable of reaching the heart or aorta and that the law has come about because of this.
But a short fixed blade is still legal.
When carried with a good reason.
Section 139 of the Criminal Justice Act 1988 makes it an offence to have any article which has a blade or is sharply pointed in a public place except a folding pocketknife.
I recall a case involving a butter knife reaching the High Court.
That reminds me - when I went to Aldi yesterday I intended to purchase Crumpets and forgot when I got there.
Unfortunately we all eventually reach the age where we can forget crumpet.
I agree that a locking knife is safer to use, but it can be considerably more dangerous if used to stab somebody. I imagine that even a relatively short locked blade will be capable of reaching the heart or aorta and that the law has come about because of this.
But a short fixed blade is still legal.
When carried with a good reason.
Section 139 of the Criminal Justice Act 1988 makes it an offence to have any article which has a blade or is sharply pointed in a public place except a folding pocketknife.
I recall a case involving a butter knife reaching the High Court.
That reminds me - when I went to Aldi yesterday I intended to purchase Crumpets and forgot when I got there.
Unfortunately we all eventually reach the age where we can forget crumpet.
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Certain houses? That is genuinely horrific.
Yep. That is what has sparked the arguments this morning. Thankfully the vast majority of people are seeing how wrong this is but there are one or two persistent offenders who are taking offence at anything less than 100% compliance.
From my past in the oil business - I butted heads with some fools. One in particular went after me. I was very early in my career (20s)... Fortunately I had a brilliant boss who'd been n the business since oil came from whales....
The arsewipe tried everything on me - even got my expenses audited. My boss said - "My, how interesting".. and put in a request to have the arsewipe audited. Turned out he was committing expenses fraud on a systematic level.
The lesson from all this - people like that are looking for what they do themselves.
Bet you that said mini-Gauleiters are committing some kind of social sin... Find it and feed them to their own mob.
Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
To do so would be an outright lie. What an utterly distasteful post.
If you don't think the government botched the initial response at this point then I don't really know what to say to you. I don't think even the *government* thinks it got the initial response right...
I live in a quiet area of SE Spain - few people, few cases. Just back from chemist and supermarket. Police checkpoints almost everywhere. Stopped twice - documents photographed [NIE & Passport copy - you have to have them!]. Everyone calm and polite but very much easier when you are able to speak Spanish - mine supposedly intermediate/higher now - and sent on my way. Checked my phone to see network message [Quedateencasa!] ie get home pronto!
Maybe people in the UK should be a little more thankful for the liberties they still have and follow the advice to stay home. It makes sense in so many ways.
So true and it may yet be our lockdown will have to be strengthened
The football authorities are desperately trying to save their competitions with talk of restarting in June or July. They cannot start playing football again, even behind closed doors, for months as it is a contact sport and will require attendance of medical personnel and emergency services. I would suggest that as long as 'social distancing' is in force no contact sport will be permissable
In truth football is over for this season and even a september start for the next is not certain. And do not get me started on the players obscene wages, whilst the club's ordinary employes are furloughed or sacked
Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
Advocating playing politics with this is one of the reasons I have such a dim view of you Edmund.
Agreed - to advocate weaponising this kind of crisis for political ends is about as low as it gets.
The tories would be sticking the hoof into Comrade Corbyn if he were managing the Rona. Boris, in particular, doesn't have any goodwill in the bank and can expect no quarter.
Advocating playing politics with this is one of the reasons I have such a dim view of you Edmund.
This website is about betting on politics, and by extension what kind of things politicians should do *if they want to win elections*. That's normally the right way to read "politician X should do Y" here, and I think that includes the comments I was replying to.
That said, if we were going to talk about what he should do from the point of view of what we would like politicians to do instead of what they will (often unjustly) be rewarded for doing, I'd choose "opposition leader opposes, makes justifies criticisms, asks how the government will avoid making the same mistake in future", which doesn't really contradict the winning-elections should in this case.
There is a time and place for all of that. Personally I am looking forward to both the media and particularly a competent Opposition ripping the Government a new one over certain decisions that have been made. But not now. We don't have all the facts, we don't know what other factors are weighing on the decision making process and we risk undermining public confidence in the Government and their advisors at a time when they absolutely need to be trusted. Anything else is reckless and dangerous.
Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
To do so would be an outright lie. What an utterly distasteful post.
If you don't think the government botched the initial response at this point then I don't really know what to say to you. I don't think even the *government* thinks it got the initial response right...
Your agenda has been clear from day 1 - now you have admitted it. Shame on you.
Such sad news this morning that a 36 year old nurse and mother of three succumbed to the virus last night. The news just gets more upsetting and sad as so many across europe and the world fall to the onslaught of this deadly virus
And yet we have political point scoring and keyboard warriors, with little or no technical knowledge, jumping on every perceived false move by HMG, mainly from hindsight, and almost always without reference to the speed this virus has overwhelmed the nations (approx 12 weeks) and any comparision with the majority of other countries, apart from Germany and South Korea who seem to have performed better (but the jury is out until this whole nightmare is behind us)
Boris, HMG, Cobra and others have made mistakes but are those attacking him and the government confident that they would have performed better, had fewer deaths, and not made their own mistakes
There are huge obstacles ahead and more mistakes will be made but the ones who have performed badly by some distances are the journalists, tv presenters and the media who frankly have not got the technical knowledge and only know one form of journalism, the 'gotcha' moment and right now that is a huge negative.
Lets have examination of the government from those with the scientific knowledge and not some hidden or even open agenda
So you want all PB discussion to stop, or just be confined to 1 or 2 posters with whom the rest of us must not question?
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
The Shadow chancellor made exactly this point at the dispatch box, stop cuddling up to these scoundrels, do we really need to? the governments response was hysterical.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Fair enough, I was unaware of it.
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
The tories would be sticking the hoof into Comrade Corbyn if he were managing the Rona. Boris, in particular, doesn't have any goodwill in the bank and can expect no quarter.
Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
To do so would be an outright lie. What an utterly distasteful post.
If you don't think the government botched the initial response at this point then I don't really know what to say to you. I don't think even the *government* thinks it got the initial response right...
Seeing as this is a betting site, at the start of the crisis what do you think the chances are of any government getting things perfectly right?
Id say 0%
The govt does accept they have made mistakes and will make more, it is in the nature of the crisis.
Tbf, you have had a consistent message and alternative approach throughout, but most of the critics are just picking up random comments and assuming them to be facts and obvious without the benefit of hindsight.
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Fair enough, I was unaware of it.
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
Such sad news this morning that a 36 year old nurse and mother of three succumbed to the virus last night. The news just gets more upsetting and sad as so many across europe and the world fall to the onslaught of this deadly virus
And yet we have political point scoring and keyboard warriors, with little or no technical knowledge, jumping on every perceived false move by HMG, mainly from hindsight, and almost always without reference to the speed this virus has overwhelmed the nations (approx 12 weeks) and any comparision with the majority of other countries, apart from Germany and South Korea who seem to have performed better (but the jury is out until this whole nightmare is behind us)
Boris, HMG, Cobra and others have made mistakes but are those attacking him and the government confident that they would have performed better, had fewer deaths, and not made their own mistakes
There are huge obstacles ahead and more mistakes will be made but the ones who have performed badly by some distances are the journalists, tv presenters and the media who frankly have not got the technical knowledge and only know one form of journalism, the 'gotcha' moment and right now that is a huge negative.
Lets have examination of the government from those with the scientific knowledge and not some hidden or even open agenda
So you want all PB discussion to stop, or just be confined to 1 or 2 posters with whom the rest of us must not question?
Do not be silly
But on a personal note I very much hope you are in a better place
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
There are whispers that all Rishi Sunak's good work is to be undone by lamentable implementation, not unlike everything else in this Covid-19 saga.
In which case it wasn't good work at all. The conceptual stuff was a piece of piss, the challenge was always in the implementation. If the implementation is poor, the plan was poor and Sunak has screwed up. Or, to be less harsh, has proved to be all handle and no brush. As, tbh, I have rather suspected. But we'll see.
On a more positive note, Hancock seems to me to be performing very well. In common with many people, I had him marked down as a sycophant and lightweight before this crisis. Not so much now. I'm quite impressed with him. More than this, I am liking the guy. I like Matt Hancock. I'll say it again. I like Matt Hancock. Is there a Facebook group?
Starmer would be making a strategic mistake if he goes down that route as his first act imo. Playing the supportive statesman with gentle prodding on the medias issue of the day is where he should be for now.
Makes sense. He will have plenty of time to pick apart government failures on this later, and even optimistically there will be failures to pick apart because no one ever responds perfectly in a crisis.
I disagree, politically it's really important for him to create a narrative right now that Britain is where it is because the government botched the initial response. I agree the tone shouldn't look full-throatedly political but he needs to get people talking on the lines of "how to we avoid [insert catchy name for that period] when dealing with x, y and z.
The timing for this is pretty much perfect, because it's not too late to argue about the pre-lockdown period, but it's late enough that people are starting to get grumpy and receptive to an anti-government message.
Advocating playing politics with this is one of the reasons I have such a dim view of you Edmund.
Agreed - to advocate weaponising this kind of crisis for political ends is about as low as it gets.
The tories would be sticking the hoof into Comrade Corbyn if he were managing the Rona. Boris, in particular, doesn't have any goodwill in the bank and can expect no quarter.
What a shame the Tories are polling nearly double the Stupid Communists then
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
There are whispers that all Rishi Sunak's good work is to be undone by lamentable implementation, not unlike everything else in this Covid-19 saga.
In which case it wasn't good work at all. The conceptual stuff was a piece of piss, the challenge was always in the implementation. If the implementation is poor, the plan was poor and Sunak has screwed up. Or, to be less harsh, has proved to be all handle and no brush. As, tbh, I have rather suspected. But we'll see.
On a more positive note, Hancock seems to me to be performing very well. In common with many people, I had him marked down as a sycophant and lightweight before this crisis. Not so much now. I'm quite impressed with him. More than this, I am liking the guy. I like Matt Hancock. I'll say it again. I like Matt Hancock. Is there a Facebook group?
Re the furloughed scheme, the timescales havent yet slipped so it is very harsh to criticise it for that purely because of "whispers" whatever that means.
Agree re Hancock. He looked petrified in his first big covid press conference, with hindsight that was a good sign as he has met the challenge very well since then.
I had an e-mail this morning from a former colleague at HSE who specialised in RPE. Basically it was a rant at the ignorance at some of the journalists. I tried to calm him down but it just set him off again.
I admire some of the people fronting the campaign. You get a much better quality of question from the general public. They usually are not trying to impress. Why do the journalists feel the need to interfere and parade their total ignorance of the subject?
They usually start with Laura K, and to be fair, she is not a major culprit here. But Peston? They say ignorance is bliss: he must be hysterical.
Is everything perfect? No. It never will be. But surely if you want forensic probing, don't use arrogant dipsticks with arts degrees (I include PPE degrees in this).
Just back from an A and E department (town of 100,000 people) where I had to collect something for someone. Not a single person in waiting area, absolute silence, no-one at reception. After 5 minutes a nice lady turned up at the reception desk and gave me what I had come for. Out in 8 minutes.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
There is a time and place for all of that. Personally I am looking forward to both the media and particularly a competent Opposition ripping the Government a new one over certain decisions that have been made. But not now. We don't have all the facts, we don't know what other factors are weighing on the decision making process and we risk undermining public confidence in the Government and their advisors at a time when they absolutely need to be trusted. Anything else is reckless and dangerous.
["How I would like politicians to behave" shoulds follow]
I'm not saying they should demagogue. They shouldn't say, "[Unproven medicine] somethingiphen is effective effective against coronavirus, but the government won't give it to you because they're in the pockets of big pharma". I also prefer it if they (and the voters) go easy on things like u-turns, that are signs of a mistake but help move policy in a better direction.
But criticism is important, *especially* in a crisis. If you think the government has done something wrong, it doesn't help to keep quiet about it. Firstly it doesn't help the government, which may fail to learn from its mistakes. But it also doesn't help the voters. If they think there's a conspiracy for all the people in high places to say the same thing even when the voters think it's sketchy, they lose the ability to tell the difference between the justified or arguable criticism and conspiracy theories with no basis in fact. You might be able to get away with that in the 1950s, but now there's no shortage of ways to fill the void. Much better to have an honest discussion, say what you think was done wrong, let the government defend it if they want to, and let the voters make up their minds.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
Great poll for Boris but also ironically for Starmer if he is elected Labour leader tomorrow, Labour is now so low even getting them back to Ed Miliband 2015 or Corbyn 2019 levels would technically be a 'poll bounce'
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
But criticism is important, *especially* in a crisis. If you think the government has done something wrong, it doesn't help to keep quiet about it. Firstly it doesn't help the government, which may fail to learn from its mistakes. .... Much better to have an honest discussion, say what you think was done wrong, let the government defend it if they want to, and let the voters make up their minds.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
What? Let Hatchet Harry and his collectors Big Chris & Little Chris corner the market?
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
Oh yes I had that when I was in a queue to get into the local CO-OP last weekend.
I doing the standard 6 meters apart from everyone else but started coughing. The girl ahead of me turned round rather startled. I put my hand up an said don't worry I've had this cough since December.
She gave me a slight smile but I'm not sure she was entirely convinced...
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
Also had a bad cough in December. Hayfever season approaching means I and many others will be sneezing for next two-three months.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
This is the advice for people who have Covid-19 symptoms.
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
There is a time and place for all of that. Personally I am looking forward to both the media and particularly a competent Opposition ripping the Government a new one over certain decisions that have been made. But not now. We don't have all the facts, we don't know what other factors are weighing on the decision making process and we risk undermining public confidence in the Government and their advisors at a time when they absolutely need to be trusted. Anything else is reckless and dangerous.
["How I would like politicians to behave" shoulds follow]
I'm not saying they should demagogue. They shouldn't say, "[Unproven medicine] somethingiphen is effective effective against coronavirus, but the government won't give it to you because they're in the pockets of big pharma". I also prefer it if they (and the voters) go easy on things like u-turns, that are signs of a mistake but help move policy in a better direction.
But criticism is important, *especially* in a crisis. If you think the government has done something wrong, it doesn't help to keep quiet about it. Firstly it doesn't help the government, which may fail to learn from its mistakes. But it also doesn't help the voters. If they think there's a conspiracy for all the people in high places to say the same thing even when the voters think it's sketchy, they lose the ability to tell the difference between the justified or arguable criticism and conspiracy theories with no basis in fact. You might be able to get away with that in the 1950s, but now there's no shortage of ways to fill the void. Much better to have an honest discussion, say what you think was done wrong, let the government defend it if they want to, and let the voters make up their minds.
Yes, it was the constant hits from friendly media that got the change of strategy on testing made. We'd still be fumbling about trying to get public bodies to increase testing instead of using private resources
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
This is the advice for people who have Covid-19 symptoms.
Apologies didnt notice that. Yes that is surprising.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
One of the peculiar characteristics of the 'cold' I contracted some time ago was that it kept recurring. It was like getting the same cold over and over again with short well periods in between. I've never experienced this before. It also 'felt' different to a normal cold, chronic fatigue being the main distinguishing feature.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
This is the advice for people who have Covid-19 symptoms.
Apologies didnt notice that. Yes that is surprising.
It does say you must stay 2 metres from others when exercising and you should not do your own food shopping or go to buy medicines but order them online or get them dropped off
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
Great relief to me if true since shopping is the only risk I'm taking.
But I doubt it IS true. You have close encounters while shopping.
It is probably a function of direction, and time. How long do you spend face to face with someone at close range. In the hairdressers - how long do you spend *facing* the hair dresser?
Would be interesting to see some research on the directionality of the "danger zone" emitted by a person who is infected....
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
One of the peculiar characteristics of the 'cold' I contracted some time ago was that it kept recurring. It was like getting the same cold over and over again with short well periods in between. I've never experienced this before. It also 'felt' different to a normal cold, chronic fatigue being the main distinguishing feature.
Same here. Randomly came back yesterday for 12 hours, accompanied by a weird light headedness.
I'm only 60% sure it's CV19 and it's only that high because my wife has had a much clearer set of symptoms including intermittent loss of sense of smell. She also didn't have the bug I got over the winter.
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
One of the peculiar characteristics of the 'cold' I contracted some time ago was that it kept recurring. It was like getting the same cold over and over again with short well periods in between. I've never experienced this before. It also 'felt' different to a normal cold, chronic fatigue being the main distinguishing feature.
Something else that's a bit different about the bug I had in December.
I also passed it on to my mother (she had it much worse than I did and is still trying to recover from a lingering chest infection)
Anyway we have both had routine blood tests subsequently and we've both come back with raised platelet and white blood cell counts. Putting two and two together I think it's got to be left over from the December virus.
I have no idea whether what we had in December is related to COVID-19 or not but what ever it was has certainly had a significant impact on both of us so I'm really not sure how we'd cope with Coronavirus now if we did get it.
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
One of the peculiar characteristics of the 'cold' I contracted some time ago was that it kept recurring. It was like getting the same cold over and over again with short well periods in between. I've never experienced this before. It also 'felt' different to a normal cold, chronic fatigue being the main distinguishing feature.
Same here - I finally kicked it by giving in to the fatigue. Went to bed pretty much for a weekend - just kept sleeping until I didn't want anymore sleep.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
It's a fair point. IT's easy to comfort eat and drink. I've noticed that, and made a determination not to snack and eat healthy. On the drinking point, to have a fair few days not drinking int he week, and when do, only moderately.
There will be millions of people in this country who convince themselves that they have got C-19 at some point (myself definitely included in this) every time they cough. If you want evidence that this is not new read the first chapter of “Three Men in a Boat” where the narrator describes reading though a medical dictionary and coming away with the idea that the only disease he didn’t have was housemaids’ knee.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
The requirement for director guarantees has been removed.
FPT - @Richard_Nabavi must be the only person on the planet who actually likes Opera!
Er, no. I adore it. Mozart, Puccini, Bizet, Verdi, Rossini - superb.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor. 2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience. 3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding. 4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version. 5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing. 6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem. 8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end. 9. Hadyn’s Creation. 10. Handel’s Messiah.
Another dangerous outbreak of 'normality' (posted by a friend on FB).
“Travelling to work last night (I’m a GP) and the roads were the busiest I’ve seen yet during lockdown - I had to travel to Glasgow & Helensburgh & Dumbarton were busiest spots again. Also spoke with several high risk patients who’d been out shopping for eg. Paint to decorate. Non essential travel & non essential shopping not allowed. We’re trying to flatten this curve so if you need an ambulance, admission or ITU bed it will be available! No point out clapping if you don’t heed the rules, the NHS won’t be able to save you if we don’t stay below the curve.”
People who mow look back and say X should not have happened are about 1426258 times less impressive than those who said so AT THE TIME
I could not agree more. 99% of the complaints are utterly invalid IMHO, and rely entirely on hindsight. As far as I can see the only countries that have done well, and even most of them are having problems, are those that were seriously affected by SARS.
There will be millions of people in this country who convince themselves that they have got C-19 at some point (myself definitely included in this) every time they cough. If you want evidence that this is not new read the first chapter of “Three Men in a Boat” where the narrator describes reading though a medical dictionary and coming away with the idea that the only disease he didn’t have was housemaids’ knee.
Yes, unless you've had the serious symptoms - extended high fever over several days & persistent coughing - it would be more reasonable to assume you haven't had it, unless and until widespread population testing is done.
It's possible that a significant percentage of the population might have been infected and had mild or no symptoms; but rather more likely that they haven't. (Which was the point of the Oxford modelling exercise - to demonstrate how large a range of outcomes might be possible given current data.)
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
The requirement for director guarantees has been removed.
Yes that is good. Malmesburys view is that the director guarantees were needed.
I think offering businesses a choice of:
a) director guarantees and 5% pa b) no guarantees and 15% pa
would be appropriate. 30% plus guarantees was extortionate.
FPT - @Richard_Nabavi must be the only person on the planet who actually likes Opera!
Er, no. I adore it. Mozart, Puccini, Bizet, Verdi, Rossini - superb.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor. 2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience. 3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding. 4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version. 5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing. 6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem. 8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end. 9. Hadyn’s Creation. 10. Handel’s Messiah.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
That is great to hear. You sounded bad yesterday. Yes, the coronachondria virus is an absolute pest. It has an 'R' of 5.5 which means that 28 days after the first case there are approx 25,000,000 down with it. And what's worse is that a lockdown does not reduce the spread, it INCREASES it. Thankfully with a mortality rate of near zero and little call for ventilators the NHS can cope.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
I have actually spoken to people involved (at the lower levels) in the banks. They are convinced that when the government guarantee is used, it will be firestorm directed at them.
The shite lending system for business in the UK is another matter - it has always been the case that getting a loan on credit cards or extending your mortgage is a better way to raise money than a commercial loan. IIRC OGH at one pointed invested in a loan-to-business scheme?
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
The requirement for director guarantees has been removed.
Grants are better than loans.
But even the grants are not really going to help much.
For my daughter’s business, the only grant available is £10,000. During the spring/summer season, that covers about two and a bit weeks’ trading. It really is not going to help much at all. At some point, closure will be the only sensible financial course.
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
Great relief to me if true since shopping is the only risk I'm taking.
But I doubt it IS true. You have close encounters while shopping.
I'm sure you can be unlucky, but bearing in mind that even in normal life - with people continually talking face-to-face, being in confined spaces with others, probably not washing their hands very often, and not isolating themselves if they have symptoms - each case is estimated to produce only 2-3 others. If there were anything but a small probability of catching it while shopping, that figure would be a lot higher.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
I think it's very rare for exercise to be the difference between somebody being a healthy weight and obese. It's much more about diet.
But criticism is important, *especially* in a crisis. If you think the government has done something wrong, it doesn't help to keep quiet about it. Firstly it doesn't help the government, which may fail to learn from its mistakes. .... Much better to have an honest discussion, say what you think was done wrong, let the government defend it if they want to, and let the voters make up their minds.
To add to this, Britain changed Prime Minister in both world wars. If our predecessors could apply scrutiny then, so can the present generation.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
I think it's very rare for exercise to be the difference between somebody being a healthy weight and obese. It's much more about diet.
It is also very rare for people not to be travelling and moving around which burns a fair few calories. Some people eat more when they are anxious which applies now. Others eat more when food is stockpiled and proximate. Others eat more when their days lack structure.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
Change the maths and it can be very differently.
There's quite possible a moral hazard issue in play here for the banks. With businesses no longer needing to pay salaries (due to the furlough scheme) the pressure to take a loan has rightly been reduced. The only ones likely to apply for the loans are those who need it - and may therefore go bust.
One horrifying fact many people don't realise is that actually 90% of new businesses go bust so what if instead of 50% going bust you change the maths to 90% of those taking loans go bust? Not very attractive then!
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Yep, a know several people who report that.
Count me in. I have this sneaking feeling it may be connected to the current crisis. If I were tested, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was immune but seems I'm unlikely to find out.
I thought that, but I seem to have caught it again anyway. Although it could just as easily be something else, or pure psychosomatism brought on by spending too much time indoors.
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
One of the peculiar characteristics of the 'cold' I contracted some time ago was that it kept recurring. It was like getting the same cold over and over again with short well periods in between. I've never experienced this before. It also 'felt' different to a normal cold, chronic fatigue being the main distinguishing feature.
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.
Comments
https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2020/apr-2020/covid-19-chancellor-overhauls-business-loan-measures?utm_campaign=Members - ICAEW&utm_medium=email&utm_source=1366394_ICAEWDaily_News_03April2020&utm_content=sunak&dm_i=47WY,TABE,KENSP,3J820,1
They definitely flirted with the herd-immunity idea to begin with however much the Johnson rappers try to airbrush it out of the picture.
They are doing fine now and there will be few complaints if the testing & PPE issues get resolved.
That said, if we were going to talk about what he should do from the point of view of what we would like politicians to do instead of what they will (often unjustly) be rewarded for doing, I'd choose "opposition leader opposes, makes justified criticisms, asks how the government will avoid making the same mistake in future", which doesn't really contradict the winning-elections should in this case.
https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1246003695386595328?s=20
The arsewipe tried everything on me - even got my expenses audited. My boss said - "My, how interesting".. and put in a request to have the arsewipe audited. Turned out he was committing expenses fraud on a systematic level.
The lesson from all this - people like that are looking for what they do themselves.
Bet you that said mini-Gauleiters are committing some kind of social sin... Find it and feed them to their own mob.
The football authorities are desperately trying to save their competitions with talk of restarting in June or July. They cannot start playing football again, even behind closed doors, for months as it is a contact sport and will require attendance of medical personnel and emergency services. I would suggest that as long as 'social distancing' is in force no contact sport will be permissable
In truth football is over for this season and even a september start for the next is not certain. And do not get me started on the players obscene wages, whilst the club's ordinary employes are furloughed or sacked
Datos de Sanidad de hoy:
CASOS TOTALES: 11.7710
Casos últimas 24h: 7.472
Recuperados: 30.513
Hospitalizados: 5.6637
Fallecidos: 10.935
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist
Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus.
Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/
An angry egg is better than no egg, stick that with your silly slogans 😡
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
Id say 0%
The govt does accept they have made mistakes and will make more, it is in the nature of the crisis.
Tbf, you have had a consistent message and alternative approach throughout, but most of the critics are just picking up random comments and assuming them to be facts and obvious without the benefit of hindsight.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/02/19/a-journal-of-the-plague-year-the-politics-of-covid-19/
... the spreadsheet model was unduly optimistic.
We are already a month ahead of schedule, in spite of worldwide lockdowns.
But on a personal note I very much hope you are in a better place
On a more positive note, Hancock seems to me to be performing very well. In common with many people, I had him marked down as a sycophant and lightweight before this crisis. Not so much now. I'm quite impressed with him. More than this, I am liking the guy. I like Matt Hancock. I'll say it again. I like Matt Hancock. Is there a Facebook group?
This support will melt away as quickly as snow in June once the crisis is over IMO.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Agree re Hancock. He looked petrified in his first big covid press conference, with hindsight that was a good sign as he has met the challenge very well since then.
I admire some of the people fronting the campaign. You get a much better quality of question from the general public. They usually are not trying to impress. Why do the journalists feel the need to interfere and parade their total ignorance of the subject?
They usually start with Laura K, and to be fair, she is not a major culprit here. But Peston? They say ignorance is bliss: he must be hysterical.
Is everything perfect? No. It never will be. But surely if you want forensic probing, don't use arrogant dipsticks with arts degrees (I include PPE degrees in this).
I'm not saying they should demagogue. They shouldn't say, "[Unproven medicine] somethingiphen is effective effective against coronavirus, but the government won't give it to you because they're in the pockets of big pharma". I also prefer it if they (and the voters) go easy on things like u-turns, that are signs of a mistake but help move policy in a better direction.
But criticism is important, *especially* in a crisis. If you think the government has done something wrong, it doesn't help to keep quiet about it. Firstly it doesn't help the government, which may fail to learn from its mistakes. But it also doesn't help the voters. If they think there's a conspiracy for all the people in high places to say the same thing even when the voters think it's sketchy, they lose the ability to tell the difference between the justified or arguable criticism and conspiracy theories with no basis in fact. You might be able to get away with that in the 1950s, but now there's no shortage of ways to fill the void. Much better to have an honest discussion, say what you think was done wrong, let the government defend it if they want to, and let the voters make up their minds.
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I am hardly a fan of Boris but I hope he takes care of himself.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245949326502891522?s=20
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
Or we could resurrect Wonga....
I doing the standard 6 meters apart from everyone else but started coughing. The girl ahead of me turned round rather startled. I put my hand up an said don't worry I've had this cough since December.
She gave me a slight smile but I'm not sure she was entirely convinced...
There's a theory doing the rounds that the virus formed somehow by a merger between two existing viruses, one of which was an "old" human coronavirus and the other crossed over from animals via the Wuhan marketplace. Possibly those who previously had the non-novel version have some immunity. Or maybe some do and some don't. It might explain why some proportion of carriers are asymptomatic.
Pure supposition, in case that needs to be clarified.
But I doubt it IS true. You have close encounters while shopping.
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1246003695386595328?s=20
Talk about using DRS on the straights!
Would be interesting to see some research on the directionality of the "danger zone" emitted by a person who is infected....
I'm only 60% sure it's CV19 and it's only that high because my wife has had a much clearer set of symptoms including intermittent loss of sense of smell. She also didn't have the bug I got over the winter.
I also passed it on to my mother (she had it much worse than I did and is still trying to recover from a lingering chest infection)
Anyway we have both had routine blood tests subsequently and we've both come back with raised platelet and white blood cell counts. Putting two and two together I think it's got to be left over from the December virus.
I have no idea whether what we had in December is related to COVID-19 or not but what ever it was has certainly had a significant impact on both of us so I'm really not sure how we'd cope with Coronavirus now if we did get it.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor.
2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience.
3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding.
4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version.
5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing.
6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem.
8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end.
9. Hadyn’s Creation.
10. Handel’s Messiah.
“Travelling to work last night (I’m a GP) and the roads were the busiest I’ve seen yet during lockdown - I had to travel to Glasgow & Helensburgh & Dumbarton were busiest spots again. Also spoke with several high risk patients who’d been out shopping for eg. Paint to decorate. Non essential travel & non essential shopping not allowed. We’re trying to flatten this curve so if you need an ambulance, admission or ITU bed it will be available! No point out clapping if you don’t heed the rules, the NHS won’t be able to save you if we don’t stay below the curve.”
It's possible that a significant percentage of the population might have been infected and had mild or no symptoms; but rather more likely that they haven't.
(Which was the point of the Oxford modelling exercise - to demonstrate how large a range of outcomes might be possible given current data.)
"The senseless brutality of South Africa’s lockdown
The shutdown has brought nothing but chaos, violence and misery.
SHARMINI BROOKES"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/03/the-senseless-brutality-of-south-africas-lockdown/
I think offering businesses a choice of:
a) director guarantees and 5% pa
b) no guarantees and 15% pa
would be appropriate. 30% plus guarantees was extortionate.
Maybe I'll find out one day.
The shite lending system for business in the UK is another matter - it has always been the case that getting a loan on credit cards or extending your mortgage is a better way to raise money than a commercial loan. IIRC OGH at one pointed invested in a loan-to-business scheme?
But even the grants are not really going to help much.
For my daughter’s business, the only grant available is £10,000. During the spring/summer season, that covers about two and a bit weeks’ trading. It really is not going to help much at all. At some point, closure will be the only sensible financial course.
Times are different.
There's quite possible a moral hazard issue in play here for the banks. With businesses no longer needing to pay salaries (due to the furlough scheme) the pressure to take a loan has rightly been reduced. The only ones likely to apply for the loans are those who need it - and may therefore go bust.
One horrifying fact many people don't realise is that actually 90% of new businesses go bust so what if instead of 50% going bust you change the maths to 90% of those taking loans go bust? Not very attractive then!
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.