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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    The people who until very recently calling for a a quick end to the lockdown?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    The current government has made curtailing judicial oversight of public authority a central plank of its programme. The police are simply taking their cue from government in this regard. The state is seeking to return to a medieval age where its word is the law.

    There is no way more calculated of bringing a law into disrepute than its rigid enforcement. The police seem determined to demonstrate that.

    And yet they have public support.

    Round here there is virtual unanimous support for their actions though the goats in Llandudno are a bit unruly
    How do you know about public support? You are supposed to be in isolation! Or do you mean the local Facebook page?
    TBH I wouldn't say our local one is for or against; more concerned with food purchases.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    We're on 2352, which is pretty close.
    Deaths per Million we will not get close to Italy I hope.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Very timely piece, asking some appropriate awkward questions.
  • maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    The people who until very recently calling for a a quick end to the lockdown?
    I'd argue there's more of a case against the lockdown - certainly long term - if you don't believe the Chinese stats.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    The people who until very recently calling for a a quick end to the lockdown?
    Yoons ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eadric, I'm not so sure.

    Moral cowardice and economic self-interest might trump (ahem) distancing ourselves from China.

    Like the last days of Numenor, it'll be the dread of decline rather than confidence that dictates foolish decisions.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    My reason for constantly linking to it vindicated!

    1st prize to you 🙌🏻

    At least the deaths are good news for some, every cloud
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    More like cheerfully accepting any horse manure the Chinese gave them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    We're on 2352, which is pretty close.
    Deaths per Million we will not get close to Italy I hope.
    Italy's population is over 60 million. We're already close.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I'd treat any official announcement from Trump's administration with some scepticism, while assuming that the Chines lie when it suits them.
    US intelligence has some excellent people, but they are probably not the ones talking to the media these days.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    @Cyclefree Garden Corner (7).

    I'm still recovering from all the winter flowering suggestions yesterday, so this is a short one.

    I want to identify this bush. Mid green, slightly glossy leaves - can anyone help?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1245374811490091009
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    More likely that they're a bit credulous, don't get to see everything, and the WHO leadership is a bit shit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Mr. Eadric, I'm not so sure.

    Moral cowardice and economic self-interest might trump (ahem) distancing ourselves from China.

    I'd only dispute the word 'might' in that sentence, certainly long term.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    "As expected, the Trump administration has announced a rollback of federal fuel economy regulations, a move that some estimate will increase annual US carbon emissions by as much as 25 percent, as well as increasing fuel costs for consumers and putting the US auto industry at a competitive disadvantage."
    https://chargedevs.com/newswire/trump-administration-guts-air-pollution-standards/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited April 2020
    ukpaul said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Stupid of them, but they won't care too much because 'it's okay for young people'. Meanwhile everyone older than them that they've come into contact with has been put in danger. This will only get better if those in their twenties and younger are made to realise that they are one of the prime reasons that it is spreading.
    Too many won't hence we have lockdowns and more mass testing is needed followed by compulsory self isolation if infected
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    The people who until very recently calling for a a quick end to the lockdown?
    Yoons ?
    Naive cretins?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Excellent piece, Cyclefree.

    Got to go off do other stuff for a bit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    We're on 2352, which is pretty close.
    Deaths per Million we will not get close to Italy I hope.
    Italy's population is over 60 million. We're already close.
    Their at 206 per million we are at 35
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    eristdoof said:

    BigRich said:

    FF43 said:

    If anyone is still interested in why Germany manages to test vastly more people despite facing the same global shortages of chemicals as the UK, this is a good summary.

    It's complicated. Top line summary: Germany is more on the ball than we are. The chemical shortage is part of the mix however

    https://reaction.life/why-is-germany-able-to-test-for-coronavirus-so-much-more-than-the-uk/

    That's an exalant artical thanks for sharing it.

    I recommend reading the whole thing, but what I take away, (yes because it backs up my pre-held belief LOL) is that the privit secter when involved can and will achieve amazing things very quickly. in the US and here the CDC and Public Heath England, wanted a monopoly, on testing and then could not cope.

    The NHS is full of lots of wonderful people who are highly skilled, working exceptionally hard and at the moment brave, but the organisation stretcher is rubbish.
    Whether the testing is done in the private or public sector is not really the point. The point is does the country have a plan in place to ramp up to 10,000 tests a day if suddenly required.
    Not Invented Here syndrome.

    Given the Germans were ahead of the UK in designing tests, the UK could have made up a couple of weeks by deciding, the Germans know what they are doing, their standards are just as good as ours. We'll take their design and work out where to source it. Instead of which they started out from first principles.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    One can reject that suggestion but still think they were shown Potemkin villages and thought they were real.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    The people who until very recently calling for a a quick end to the lockdown?
    Yoons ?
    Naive cretins?
    Zoomer nats ?
  • The current government has made curtailing judicial oversight of public authority a central plank of its programme. The police are simply taking their cue from government in this regard. The state is seeking to return to a medieval age where its word is the law.

    There is no way more calculated of bringing a law into disrepute than its rigid enforcement. The police seem determined to demonstrate that.

    And yet they have public support.

    Round here there is virtual unanimous support for their actions though the goats in Llandudno are a bit unruly
    How do you know about public support? You are supposed to be in isolation! Or do you mean the local Facebook page?
    TBH I wouldn't say our local one is for or against; more concerned with food purchases.
    It is reflected in the local newspapers, local community apps, facebook, and telephone conversations with near 100% support for enforcement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    The one thing that is going to happen is Trump and the US will seek to make Chin responsible and I expect that many nations may join in. I doubt Huawei will survive this in the UK and going forward a lot more will be manufactured at home using non China components
    China will be responsible to no one apart from China. Same as every other country and certainly every other superpower.
    If the other main superpowers ie the US, EU, Russia and India combined to force China to take action or face sanctions it would have to do so
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20
  • maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    More like cheerfully accepting any horse manure the Chinese gave them.
    Well, all we can really do is guess. And when I have to chose who to trust the most out of China, US, and WHO, I will probably neither go for China nor the US.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sharma all sub-Churchill and no trousers.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    I'm insinuating they're already a laughing stock globally for their craven attitude to Communist China, and claiming them as a neutral arbiter is fooling nobody.
  • A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
  • I notice the slides at the news conference have COBR heading

    It is clear HMG is acting in accordance with agreement in Cobra
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    March 17th, fifteen days ago, Italy had 2503 deaths, March 16th, sixteen days ago they had 2150 deaths.

    So, today, the UK has, with 2352 deaths the same ]figures as Italy about fifteen and a half days ago, This is the point where Italy and Spain took off, up to and through this weekend will see if we can avoid that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Why are more people using their cars?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    I notice the slides at the news conference have COBR heading

    It is clear HMG is acting in accordance with agreement in Cobra

    Big uptick in vehicle usage. Lockdown is creaking already.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    (I omitted China on the judgement that the data wasn't reliable, and South Korea because it was way, way out on its own and we already know it's doing far better than anyone else)

    It's an excellent chart, thank you. Only suggestions I would make would be to plot the logarithm of the per million rate, and I'd be interested in seeing the US and Belgium (but the chart is already crowded, so difficult).
    I can have a crack.
    US was already on it (but crowded so hard to see). Belgium added, logs taken - and I changed colours to match the original one and added the country names close to the line to aid identification.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    eadric said:

    Yes. And all those horrifying videos of Chinese people eating animals alive. And of course their near annihilation of the pangolin, for quack Chinese medicine. A creature which now seems to be haunting them.

    This is why I reckon there will be a Cold War after this. The anger at China will be intense. Those countries that are able to distance themselves from China - ie the not quite so rich West - will do so.
    I bet they don’t.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    edited April 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    One can reject that suggestion but still think they were shown Potemkin villages and thought they were real.

    They visited five cities, and it was a joint WHO and China mission. Also the report had many important knowledge gaps listed. Potentially the report can be completely straight, but if the China's government said "we don't know" about key areas where they did have knowledge that would be an issue.

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    Same WHO that can't say Taiwan without breaking out in a cold sweat?
    Are you insinuating that their monitoring mission was colluding with the Chinese to bullshit the rest of the world? That would be quite a serious allegation.
    Colluding is the wrong word, I don't this thats accurate, but perhaps 'willingly deceived'.

    The WHO has seemingly had a 'love in' with china for a few years, I think the WHO loves the centralization thing, and China know how to woow and in-pres people, so I think they where looking for reasons to believe china rather than asking difficult questions.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    eadric said:

    Yes. And all those horrifying videos of Chinese people eating animals alive. And of course their near annihilation of the pangolin, for quack Chinese medicine. A creature which now seems to be haunting them.

    This is why I reckon there will be a Cold War after this. The anger at China will be intense. Those countries that are able to distance themselves from China - ie the not quite so rich West - will do so.
    I bet they don’t.

    Individual consumers will.
  • TGOHF666 said:

    I notice the slides at the news conference have COBR heading

    It is clear HMG is acting in accordance with agreement in Cobra

    Big uptick in vehicle usage. Lockdown is creaking already.
    Link
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    TGOHF666 said:

    eadric said:

    Yes. And all those horrifying videos of Chinese people eating animals alive. And of course their near annihilation of the pangolin, for quack Chinese medicine. A creature which now seems to be haunting them.

    This is why I reckon there will be a Cold War after this. The anger at China will be intense. Those countries that are able to distance themselves from China - ie the not quite so rich West - will do so.
    I bet they don’t.

    Individual consumers will.
    Yep, that is more likely. But it will be hard to do, in practice.

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited April 2020
  • A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    I am not really sure we would back out of a deal with Huawei over the 5G due to coronavirus? Though I would take a hefty discount if one were offered...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Eadric, I'm not so sure.

    Moral cowardice and economic self-interest might trump (ahem) distancing ourselves from China.

    I'd only dispute the word 'might' in that sentence, certainly long term.
    Dont China own more bits of the UK than HM Government.alredy?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    (I omitted China on the judgement that the data wasn't reliable, and South Korea because it was way, way out on its own and we already know it's doing far better than anyone else)

    Interesting chart but I'm struggling to see the UK's line on it. I'm guessing its hidden behind another nation?
    It was hiding behind Switzerland and has just crossed tracks to hide behind France
    Thanks I see it crossing over now!

    Am I reading it correctly that the USA is only on Day 10 and is just above where Switzerland (and presumably us) was on Day 10? I'm surprised its that high.

    Also what's Day One in your graph?
    Day One is the day after the deaths per million hits 1.

    The US may be unfairly hit because their population is so high, so a significant number of people needed to be infected to get to that point - but on the flip side, as a fraction of their population, it's the same point.
  • TGOHF666 said:
    I assume people are using cars instead of public transport
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    MattW said:

    @Cyclefree Garden Corner (7).

    I'm still recovering from all the winter flowering suggestions yesterday, so this is a short one.

    I want to identify this bush. Mid green, slightly glossy leaves - can anyone help?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1245374811490091009

    A type of Pittosporum perhaps?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited April 2020
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    Its been happening for a while - will now accelerated.

    No doubt aided by some fat tariffs.

    We are going to get 12 questions on whether NHS staff have been tested - dont they listen to the other questions ? Like Jezza at PMQs this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    There will no businesses left for these banks to lend money to if they carry on like this. Government needs to act swiftly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited April 2020

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    There will no businesses left for these banks to lend money to if they carry on like this. Government needs to act swiftly.
    They cancel dividends and then rip of good businesses.

    It is shameful and they have to be made to come to heal
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    (I omitted China on the judgement that the data wasn't reliable, and South Korea because it was way, way out on its own and we already know it's doing far better than anyone else)

    Interesting chart but I'm struggling to see the UK's line on it. I'm guessing its hidden behind another nation?
    It was hiding behind Switzerland and has just crossed tracks to hide behind France
    Thanks I see it crossing over now!

    Am I reading it correctly that the USA is only on Day 10 and is just above where Switzerland (and presumably us) was on Day 10? I'm surprised its that high.

    Also what's Day One in your graph?
    Day One is the day after the deaths per million hits 1.

    The US may be unfairly hit because their population is so high, so a significant number of people needed to be infected to get to that point - but on the flip side, as a fraction of their population, it's the same point.
    I suspect, with no evidence mind, that there may have been quite a few deaths of people with the virus in the US that were not tested in the early days so perhaps the US hit 1 per million earlia than the dates indicates, but as I say I cant back that up.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    eadric said:
    A few more positives today than yesterday, but trend of downward numbers of new cases is clearly there. Also, the leaders of Veneto and Lombardy stated they are now testing cases with less strong symptoms, so it's possible there might be a backlog to pick up. But deaths / number of cases is clearly trending in the right way.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    (I omitted China on the judgement that the data wasn't reliable, and South Korea because it was way, way out on its own and we already know it's doing far better than anyone else)

    It's an excellent chart, thank you. Only suggestions I would make would be to plot the logarithm of the per million rate, and I'd be interested in seeing the US and Belgium (but the chart is already crowded, so difficult).
    I can have a crack.
    US was already on it (but crowded so hard to see). Belgium added, logs taken - and I changed colours to match the original one and added the country names close to the line to aid identification.

    The Netherlands now overtaken Italy on deaths from Covid 19 per capita at this stage then, joining Spain and Belgium in the same position
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ukpaul said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    March 17th, fifteen days ago, Italy had 2503 deaths, March 16th, sixteen days ago they had 2150 deaths.

    So, today, the UK has, with 2352 deaths the same ]figures as Italy about fifteen and a half days ago, This is the point where Italy and Spain took off, up to and through this weekend will see if we can avoid that.
    Peak in Leicester predicted to be Easter Weekend, by our SMT.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    Its been happening for a while - will now accelerated.

    No doubt aided by some fat tariffs.

    We are going to get 12 questions on whether NHS staff have been tested - dont they listen to the other questions ? Like Jezza at PMQs this.
    We really could do with a PB representative at these press conferences. The questions would actually be relevant and useful rather than point scoring.
  • tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    These Q&A sessions are a rubbish.

    Just ask 1 good question FFS.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited April 2020

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    The trend says today will be the last day Italy has more new cases than the UK. Another couple of days our new deaths pass Italian ones.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Why doesn't the government just lend it to businesses themselves?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Why doesn't the government just lend it to businesses themselves?
    because they don't (currently) have the infrastructure to do it - banks do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    There will no businesses left for these banks to lend money to if they carry on like this. Government needs to act swiftly.
    They cancel dividends and then rip of good businesses.

    It is shameful and they have to be made to come to heal
    The level of risk is what is driving the interest rate, surely?

    There is a non negligible risk of even sound businesses going under, and the loan not being repaid.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Why doesn't the government just lend it to businesses themselves?
    because they don't (currently) have the infrastructure to do it - banks do.
    Well in that case the government will be nationalising the banks shortly. Or business will be going under/struggling on/paying the exorbitant rates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    Sorry to hear.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Ok, I know I am going to be in a small minority here but...

    How many of these businesses are going to go bust - even with the loan? What percentage of these debts are going to go bad? 1%? 5%? 10%? 30%?

    Put it another way, when given the opportunity of a refund or a 125% future cruise credit on our cancelled cruise, which did I decide to opt for?

    (Clue, I didn't fancy giving Carnival an unsecured loan event at 25% interest)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    Its been happening for a while - will now accelerated.

    No doubt aided by some fat tariffs.

    We are going to get 12 questions on whether NHS staff have been tested - dont they listen to the other questions ? Like Jezza at PMQs this.
    We really could do with a PB representative at these press conferences. The questions would actually be relevant and useful rather than point scoring.
    I vote we send Cyclefree.

    She'd only need one question....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Ok, I know I am going to be in a small minority here but...

    How many of these businesses are going to go bust - even with the loan? What percentage of these debts are going to go bad? 1%? 5%? 10%? 30%?

    Put it another way, when given the opportunity of a refund or a 125% future cruise credit on our cancelled cruise, which did I decide to opt for?

    (Clue, I didn't fancy giving Carnival an unsecured loan event at 25% interest)
    And how many business owners (cough Branson cough) are putting their own money in as well?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    An interesting day back at work.
    We now have 122 confirmed Covid19 patients as inpatients. 22 fatalities (to yesterday) 38 discharged home.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2020
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    We're moving away from China; we're moving away from Europe; no-one can engage with the US right now to their advantage. Which leaves what?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    Its been happening for a while - will now accelerated.

    No doubt aided by some fat tariffs.

    We are going to get 12 questions on whether NHS staff have been tested - dont they listen to the other questions ? Like Jezza at PMQs this.
    We really could do with a PB representative at these press conferences. The questions would actually be relevant and useful rather than point scoring.
    I vote we send Cyclefree.

    She'd only need one question....
    +1

    Seriously why couldn't PB get press creditation?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    ukpaul said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    March 17th, fifteen days ago, Italy had 2503 deaths, March 16th, sixteen days ago they had 2150 deaths.

    So, today, the UK has, with 2352 deaths the same ]figures as Italy about fifteen and a half days ago, This is the point where Italy and Spain took off, up to and through this weekend will see if we can avoid that.
    Peak in Leicester predicted to be Easter Weekend, by our SMT.
    Consistent with the modelling. From the weekend, we should see a constant (linear) rise in cases every day for 5-7 days or so. That will put real strain on ICUs; but a lot depends on how things go between now and Saturday. At present, there are 10000 people in hospital in England, so I guess 700-1000 in ICUs (again following other countries - does that seem right @Foxy?). I wonder if this means that ICUs will be very tight but might just cope (assuming one or two more doublings over the next 10 days or so)? (Caveat: at least outside London and Birmingham)
  • A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    So sorry about your news.
  • tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    Are the banks not just being cautious, as we wanted them to be post-2008?
    No.
    +1 not at 30%, the bank is getting this money for free / at 0.1% remember..
    Why doesn't the government just lend it to businesses themselves?
    because they don't (currently) have the infrastructure to do it - banks do.
    Well in that case the government will be nationalising the banks shortly. Or business will be going under/struggling on/paying the exorbitant rates.
    Looking at bank share prices that may not be far off
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    eadric said:

    Yes. And all those horrifying videos of Chinese people eating animals alive. And of course their near annihilation of the pangolin, for quack Chinese medicine. A creature which now seems to be haunting them.

    This is why I reckon there will be a Cold War after this. The anger at China will be intense. Those countries that are able to distance themselves from China - ie the not quite so rich West - will do so.
    As the horror grows, so also the clear failure upon which blame lies.

    The more failure of governments becomes obvious, the more those governments and supporters try to pin all blame on China as a diversion. Pathetic really. Quite pathetic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Time for angry mobs outside banks HQ's approaching?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    I'd take the US intelligence community over the Chinese Communist party any day of the week. That you won't is more an indication on your character than how reliable US intelligence is.
    I am not 1,000% sure I would take the US intelligence community's word always for everything. They have one aim and it is not to inform the world of the truth.
    Absolutely, however, I'd take their word over that of the CCP any day of the week. For the same reasons I would not allow Huawei into our 5G network and would want them out of the 4G network.

    China as a nation is not to be trusted and if one good thing comes out of this it is hopefully a realignment of the industrialised world to exclude China from essential and sensitive supply chains.
    Lying so blatantly about Covid-19 could unravel decades of Chinese strategy.

    But I suspect that manufacturing is now so tightly bound into China that they will get away with it. If you doubt that, put everything made in China on your lawn with a sign saying "free to anyone who will take it away".
    I suspect moving things away from China is going to be a major part of our economic recovery - as it's going to require a lot of (Government) money to fix this mess and there will need to be some purpose for it (even if the purpose is kept secret).
    Its been happening for a while - will now accelerated.

    No doubt aided by some fat tariffs.

    We are going to get 12 questions on whether NHS staff have been tested - dont they listen to the other questions ? Like Jezza at PMQs this.
    We really could do with a PB representative at these press conferences. The questions would actually be relevant and useful rather than point scoring.
    I vote we send Cyclefree.

    She'd only need one question....
    +1

    Seriously why couldn't PB get press creditation?
    Because the first question no matter the subject would be about pineapple on pizza.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Time for angry mobs outside banks HQ's approaching?
    That'll just get the mob arrested!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    An interesting day back at work.
    We now have 122 confirmed Covid19 patients as inpatients. 22 fatalities (to yesterday) 38 discharged home.
    Those aren't great odds. Stay safe, buddy.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    egg said:

    eadric said:

    Yes. And all those horrifying videos of Chinese people eating animals alive. And of course their near annihilation of the pangolin, for quack Chinese medicine. A creature which now seems to be haunting them.

    This is why I reckon there will be a Cold War after this. The anger at China will be intense. Those countries that are able to distance themselves from China - ie the not quite so rich West - will do so.
    As the horror grows, so also the clear failure upon which blame lies.

    The more failure of governments becomes obvious, the more those governments and supporters try to pin all blame on China as a diversion. Pathetic really. Quite pathetic.
    A diversion from what ?

    The govt's apparent failure to prepare for a totalitarian state to enable then coverup a killer virus ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Time for angry mobs outside banks HQ's approaching?
    Keeping 2m apart?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    The US intelligence community is famous for its 'conclusions'. Envy of the world.
    Who in their right mind believes the Chinese statistics?
    I'm not sure whether anyone believes the entire body of Chinese statistics, but at the height of the outbreak in Wuhan the WHO sent fact finding missions who monitored what the Chinese were doing and they came to the conclusion that their reporting was adequate.
    Make of that what you will.
    I think you're placing too much trust in the WHO.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    An interesting day back at work.
    We now have 122 confirmed Covid19 patients as inpatients. 22 fatalities (to yesterday) 38 discharged home.
    Thanks for the update @Foxy! If you're allowed to say, are all of the 62 'active' cases in the ICU?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2020
    FF43 said:

    BigRich said:

    FF43 said:

    If anyone is still interested in why Germany manages to test vastly more people despite facing the same global shortages of chemicals as the UK, this is a good summary.

    It's complicated. Top line summary: Germany is more on the ball than we are. The chemical shortage is part of the mix however

    https://reaction.life/why-is-germany-able-to-test-for-coronavirus-so-much-more-than-the-uk/

    That's an exalant artical thanks for sharing it.

    I recommend reading the whole thing, but what I take away, (yes because it backs up my pre-held belief LOL) is that the privit secter when involved can and will achieve amazing things very quickly. in the US and here the CDC and Public Heath England, wanted a monopoly, on testing and then could not cope.

    The NHS is full of lots of wonderful people who are highly skilled, working exceptionally hard and at the moment brave, but the organisation stretcher is rubbish.
    Basically the Germans started earlier, moved faster and were better coordinated than we were. There are some structural reasons for this. I think what it shows is that marginal advantages can add up to a big difference when there are enough of them.
    I'd be a bit wary of that reaction.life article re the differences between the German and UK testing situations. Much of it is entirely speculative and admits this is the case (eg the £billions comparison between the size of the biotech sectors but in fairness admitting the author doesn't know whether there is a difference in how many UK/German firms specialise in the kit which is actually relevant). Other bits of it are very know-it-all. I'm not sufficiently expert to judge the overall quality of the article or the validity of its conclusions, but the non-speculative know-it-all bits contain some big red flags that indicate the author knows surprisingly little about either the UK/German pharmaceutical industries and public health systems, and probably hasn't talked in depth to people who do while doing his research (he says he's followed some twitter threads but that isn't the same thing).

    Quick google reveals the author is a fresh-out-of-uni Early Modern History grad from Cambridge University which may explain some of the lapses. I could see there's some logic in comparing the £billion sizes of UK and German biotech sectors with the caveat that's only going to tell you a limited amount about who's got access to what kit, and I can't see what he was thinking when he wrote "Of course, turnover is not as reliable an indication as revenue figures".

    A huge giveaway is Public Health England has a number of public health laboratories which provide a number of centres of regional excellence.... Then there are the biosafety laboratories of great institutions such as the Francis Crick Institute, the Health Protection Agency, and the Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response.

    That's hilarious. You couldn't possibly have made that mistake if you'd visited Colindale, for example. Or talked in depth to someone who'd had a senior career in UK public health. Or even read the basic Wikipedia entries for PHE and the HPA! It's the sort of mistake a google-instaexpert makes due to lack of awareness of historic/political context. There is more stuff that smelled wrong but I won't go on.

    In fairness the author does compile some interesting stuff about the German system. But then if he's so wrong about stuff that I do know, how much do I trust re the bits that I don't?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Italy

    Active cases: 80.572 (+2.937)
    Deaths: 13.155 (+727)
    Healed:: 16.847 (+1.118)

    Total cases: 110.574 (+4.782)
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    Really sorry to hear that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020
    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    ukpaul said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to that handy "The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy" tweet?

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1241702344095682565
    So if I'm reading it correct we should be on 2503 if we were trending Italy still?
    March 17th, fifteen days ago, Italy had 2503 deaths, March 16th, sixteen days ago they had 2150 deaths.

    So, today, the UK has, with 2352 deaths the same ]figures as Italy about fifteen and a half days ago, This is the point where Italy and Spain took off, up to and through this weekend will see if we can avoid that.
    Peak in Leicester predicted to be Easter Weekend, by our SMT.
    Consistent with the modelling. From the weekend, we should see a constant (linear) rise in cases every day for 5-7 days or so. That will put real strain on ICUs; but a lot depends on how things go between now and Saturday. At present, there are 10000 people in hospital in England, so I guess 700-1000 in ICUs (again following other countries - does that seem right @Foxy?). I wonder if this means that ICUs will be very tight but might just cope (assuming one or two more doublings over the next 10 days or so)? (Caveat: at least outside London and Birmingham)
    I think in Leicester we will be expanding ICU into our converted operating theatres this weekend. The Cardiology unit is also converting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    A good friend's best friend just died of the virus in New York. She was 48.

    Somebody else the Wife knows extremely well has it. She won't be put on a ventilator, as she is too old.

    Shit got real.

    So sorry about your news.
    Thanks Big_G. She has had a rough 24 hours courtesy of Covid-19, even whilst squirrelled away in Devon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Relevant to the thread header:

    York woman fined for breaching coronavirus rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-52121216
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    One thing we should have (but hopefully don't need to) is a set of powerful targeted economic sanctions against Chinese companies and economic stakeholders that support or allow wet markets - like the activity against Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine. China doesn't appear to be shutting these down automatically, because a lot of jobs depend on them. It may take a whole lot more jobs to be threatened for them to act.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    Foxy said:

    A lot is hanging on the word "good" in this quote:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1245382622949367809?s=20

    A friend has been told the interest rate he will be charged is 30% for his profitable business (the bank is also asking for a PG.)

    Bloody shameful.
    Remarkable
    Disgraceful
    There will no businesses left for these banks to lend money to if they carry on like this. Government needs to act swiftly.
    They cancel dividends and then rip of good businesses.

    It is shameful and they have to be made to come to heal
    The level of risk is what is driving the interest rate, surely?

    There is a non negligible risk of even sound businesses going under, and the loan not being repaid.
    30% in a year? Pull the other one. As a minimum they can risk last year's profit. Barclays made £4bn in each of the last 2 financial years. They can afford £4bn. Profit is the reward for risk. Increasingly, big business appears not to be prepared to take it. In any case, if they go tits up they will be saved by the Government.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    ydoethur said:

    Relevant to the thread header:

    York woman fined for breaching coronavirus rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-52121216

    I suspect this goes into the same category as people fined for not doing the Census (by the way, the ONS will be relieved that this is happening now and not in 12 months time, though it could still be an issue then).

    That is, the only people who will get hauled up in front of the magistrates will be those who want to be as a badge of honour.
This discussion has been closed.