politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds remainers more likely to believe that coronavirus is a major threat than leavers
Over a third of Brits (36%) say they have spoken to their loved ones more than usual over the course of the last two weeks https://t.co/Yx3iWTHlDO pic.twitter.com/Ogf9m11ptB
Being serious now, yes, Brexit should be put on hold, Boris did not really want it, and he now has cover to do what he wants. Whatever is needed, or some other trite phrase.
One point which I don't think has been made: some low-paid workers rely on overtime and (if they work in restaurants etc) on tips to top up their base earnings. I presume those extra payments won't be covered by the government's 80% guarantee.
Being serious now, yes, Brexit should be put on hold, Boris did not really want it, and he now has cover to do what he wants. Whatever is needed, or some other trite phrase.
Oh no, then we’d get the Coronavirus-was-a-remainer-engineered-plot conspiracy theory, which I’m really not ready for.
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
For #3, yep they're testing a lot more over the last 3 days (+17k, +17k, +24k). They only broke +10k nine days ago, and as recently as the 5th it was just +3k.
Wow, that's close to a 50% increase in testing yesterday. That's got to have an impact on discovered cases.
Gosh - yes! That is a big factor - the actual fraction of positive cases thus declined from 31% to 25% today (more equivalent to the day before). I wonder if the fraction of positive cases is not the better statistic for understanding whether the epidemic is growing or not? Assuming they are sampling the same 'type' of people each day it would be more interpretable. @rcs1000 what do you think?
Well, that's the rub, isn't it? Assuming the sample is the same is far from certain. One would expect that - as testing capability increased - they would test more marginal, less symptomatic cases.
That being said, the increase in testing was so significant yesterday that, even if CV-19 incidence was in decline, you'd still expect to see an increase in diagnoses.
It would be sensible to put together a hybrid measure, that took into account both the proportion positive, and the raw number. If I wasn't really busy, I'd have a go
One point which I don't think has been made: some low-paid workers rely on overtime and (if they work in restaurants etc) on tips to top up their base earnings. I presume those extra payments won't be covered by the government's 80% guarantee.
Doubtful I would have thought but 80% is still better than uc probably and don't forget he mentioned increasing working tax credits as well
Being serious now, yes, Brexit should be put on hold, Boris did not really want it, and he now has cover to do what he wants. Whatever is needed, or some other trite phrase.
He could frame it as taking one less distraction off the agenda for the EU27 as a gesture of solidarity.
Very impressed with our Chancellor, what a meteoric rise to fame, and definitely firm favourite for next PM, he makes Boris look like the bufoon he is. Can you seriously imagine Corbyn and crew handling this, yes Boris is useless but he is using the experts and science and a talented Chancellor to the full.
One point which I don't think has been made: some low-paid workers rely on overtime and (if they work in restaurants etc) on tips to top up their base earnings. I presume those extra payments won't be covered by the government's 80% guarantee.
Doubtful I would have thought but 80% is still better than uc probably and don't forget he mentioned increasing working tax credits as well
On the other hand people's costs when not working aren't going to be quite the same as when they were. If inflation doesn't destroy it then many people are going to have money to burn at the end of this (at least in comparison to what they had before)
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
I think your logic is faulty. Even if two in three people lock themselves up, the R0 could still be unaffected if the remainder continue to interact as normal. It would only stop when the pandemic reached a natural peak among those people. Hypothetically, in a region of 10m, if you took 6.6m out of circulation, that could still mean ~2m infections.
You are correct. Sort of. And wrong. Sort of.
Fistly, the infected in the two thirds (which would be two thirds of the infections...) would not be able to infect anyone, and would have R0s of 0.
For the other third, as there would be only one third the number of people they could bump into, surely their infectiousness would also decline, unless they managed to maintain the same level of social interaction as previously.
Pls see the NYTimes visualisation.
It's true that taking a proportion of infected people out of circulation would reduce the number, but that's a one-off hit if infectuous people continue to circulate. The flaw in the visualisation you refer to is that it assumes a strict correlation between population density and the potential for social interactions that could transfer the virus and real life isn't quite that straightforward.
Very impressed with our Chancellor, what a meteoric rise to fame, and definitely firm favourite for next PM, he makes Boris look like the bufoon he is. Can you seriously imagine Corbyn and crew handling this, yes Boris is useless but he is using the experts and science and a talented Chancellor to the full.
Imagine yes.
Oh God No.
Imagine it - they would have implemented social distancing by closing only the businesses of evil capitalist scumbags. They would have announced a subsidy for furloughs workers paid for by Richard Branson and the scum who own Thames Water...
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
This is going to set the tongues wagging.
Ex Prime Minister?
No, Dave posts as [moderated]
Wasn't going for him...
Scanning the history, someone who works in academia or medicine, with an office that is now closed, and who has students, and a fair degree of expertise on medical matters.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
But will that save you, when the revolution comes....
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
Is the tenant your ex-wife?
God no, I'd be charging her 10 times the going rate.
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
On a scale of
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Both are nevertheless on a negative score.
I've been renting for 15 years or so now and been lucky enough never to have a crap private sector landlord. Either really lucky, or they aren't all bad.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
But will that save you, when the revolution comes....
I've long realised when the revolution comes I'm going to be the first one up against the wall.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
On a scale of
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Both are nevertheless on a negative score.
I've been renting for 15 years or so now and been lucky enough never to have a crap private sector landlord. Either really lucky, or they aren't all bad.
Given we had had so far this century H1N1, SARS, MERS, EBOLA, ZIKA and now COVID19 which has got away from us I think something that should be worrying us is if we can get over the economic damage before the next one
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
On a scale of
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Both are nevertheless on a negative score.
I've been renting for 15 years or so now and been lucky enough never to have a crap private sector landlord. Either really lucky, or they aren't all bad.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
On a scale of
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Both are nevertheless on a negative score.
I've been renting for 15 years or so now and been lucky enough never to have a crap private sector landlord. Either really lucky, or they aren't all bad.
Weren’t you abroad? At least until recently.
Fair enough, ten of the fifteen years without having a crap private sector landlord in the UK
My son just texted me to say most of his Corbyn loving friends are praising Boris on facebook.......
(Broken record mode=on) Boris won the election by being a better Corbyn than Jeremy Corbyn. The amount of reverse ferreting by both right and left is remarkable but was predictable and indeed predicted.
Very impressed with our Chancellor, what a meteoric rise to fame, and definitely firm favourite for next PM, he makes Boris look like the bufoon he is. Can you seriously imagine Corbyn and crew handling this, yes Boris is useless but he is using the experts and science and a talented Chancellor to the full.
Imagine yes.
Oh God No.
Imagine it - they would have implemented social distancing by closing only the businesses of evil capitalist scumbags. They would have announced a subsidy for furloughs workers paid for by Richard Branson and the scum who own Thames Water...
Or they would have "squeezed the Jews, because we all know they have lots of money, the greedy b*stards"
Just to be clear the preceding sentence is intended to be a parody of an anti-semite's position and one that I completely reject.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
I am a fantastic landlord, I've given my tenant a rent free holiday period for as long as Covid-19 lasts, and before that, I charged them well below the going rate.
But will that save you, when the revolution comes....
I've long realised when the revolution comes I'm going to be the first one up against the wall.
No, that was reserved for people ordering complicated coffees in a busy pub after 7.00 pm clogging up the serving staff as they faffed with beans, and milk warming, etc. I suppose even these fork tailed devils are now spared though, being as there’s no pubs.
But please landlord twitter, tell me how landlords are the good guys.
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
On a scale of
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Both are nevertheless on a negative score.
I've been renting for 15 years or so now and been lucky enough never to have a crap private sector landlord. Either really lucky, or they aren't all bad.
I've had one truly appalling landlord, who hung on to most of our deposit. And who was generally a shit.
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
I think so Feel free to drop me a message.
OOH - is it Rees - Mogg?
I'd be no good at this name game. It is only this week I realised, several years after everyone else, that middle class celebrity couple David and Victoria Coren Mitchell have the same names as Posh & Becks.
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
I think so Feel free to drop me a message.
OOH - is it Rees - Mogg?
I'd be no good at this name game. It is only this week I realised, several years after everyone else, that middle class celebrity couple David and Victoria Coren Mitchell have the same names as Posh & Becks.
I wonder what part of the population think that David Mitchell the comedian is the same guy as David Mitchell the author. I never did of course...
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
I think so Feel free to drop me a message.
OOH - is it Rees - Mogg?
I'd be no good at this name game. It is only this week I realised, several years after everyone else, that middle class celebrity couple David and Victoria Coren Mitchell have the same names as Posh & Becks.
If it makes you feel better, I hadn't realised until you mentioned it...
One extant issue for pubs and restaurants and similar is rent, though. When I lived in a pub, by far our largest bill was the rent to the brewery. It was what drove my parents out, in time. Hopefully the small business grants already announced and the VAT deferment will help, but if this goes past a month or two, they’re going to need help with the rents.
However, for the first time, I’m believing that Rishi will help them out as well when it becomes apparent that it’s needed.
Landlord took out a loan on the property we stayed in and then defaulted, after the bank repossessed he then threatened us with violence to try and extract money we didn't own him from us.
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
I think so Feel free to drop me a message.
OOH - is it Rees - Mogg?
I'd be no good at this name game. It is only this week I realised, several years after everyone else, that middle class celebrity couple David and Victoria Coren Mitchell have the same names as Posh & Becks.
I wonder what part of the population think that David Mitchell the comedian is the same guy as David Mitchell the author. I never did of course...
Wait. It wasn't the comedian who wrote Ghostwritten?
It's always the way that someone profits from someone else's misfortune. The supermarkets are enjoying this crisis - as has been observed, people are continually re-stocking and emptying the shelves in a state of near hysteria.
It would be nice to think the extra profits made by the supermarket could be donated to help others - I imagine finding 20,000 staff from somewhere will obviate the need of some individuals to draw on Sunak's Sink Fund.
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
I think so Feel free to drop me a message.
OOH - is it Rees - Mogg?
I'd be no good at this name game. It is only this week I realised, several years after everyone else, that middle class celebrity couple David and Victoria Coren Mitchell have the same names as Posh & Becks.
I wonder what part of the population think that David Mitchell the comedian is the same guy as David Mitchell the author. I never did of course...
Wait. It wasn't the comedian who wrote Ghostwritten?
It's always the way that someone profits from someone else's misfortune. The supermarkets are enjoying this crisis - as has been observed, people are continually re-stocking and emptying the shelves in a state of near hysteria.
It would be nice to think the extra profits made by the supermarket could be donated to help others - I imagine finding 20,000 staff from somewhere will obviate the need of some individuals to draw on Sunak's Sink Fund.
At someone point we'll all be fully stocked. Then they won't be laughing.
It does include betting shops - well, that does clarify the situation somewhat. Bad news for the Irish racing industry which will get nothing in media rights for tomorrow's Thurles meeting but a huge boost for online bookmakers who are now the only game in town.
It does include betting shops - well, that does clarify the situation somewhat. Bad news for the Irish racing industry which will get nothing in media rights for tomorrow's Thurles meeting but a huge boost for online bookmakers who are now the only game in town.
Most of these can be replaced by online options, and if the close down is sustained we are probably seeing an irreversible shift in our lifestyle.
It does include betting shops - well, that does clarify the situation somewhat. Bad news for the Irish racing industry which will get nothing in media rights for tomorrow's Thurles meeting but a huge boost for online bookmakers who are now the only game in town.
Most of these can be replaced by online options, and if the close down is sustained we are probably seeing an irreversible shift in our lifestyle.
I dunno. People will still want to go to museums and art galleries, to see live music, go to the cinema etc. Even more so after 12 weeks stuck watching the TV.
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
It seems younger people aren't much less likely to end up in intensive care (for those that have a bad reaction) but they are much less likely to die of it.
Update: Nandos is packed with people waiting for a takeaway. Doh.
This is why I think delivery only makes sense. Much lower risk of infection unless someone at the establishment has it in which case you're buggered anyway.
Update: Nandos is packed with people waiting for a takeaway. Doh.
This is why I think delivery only makes sense. Much lower risk of infection unless someone at the establishment has it in which case your buggered anyway.
Much lower risk of infecting the people working at the establishment too.
Update: Nandos is packed with people waiting for a takeaway. Doh.
This is why I think delivery only makes sense. Much lower risk of infection unless someone at the establishment has it in which case you're buggered anyway.
This is the time I am glad I live in a pizza parlour
My sister has just text me. She was in Tesco tonight to get a bottle of wine. The booze shelves rapidly being pillaged and people arguing over packs of Carling. We're doomed.
My sister has just text me. She was in Tesco tonight to get a bottle of wine. The booze shelves rapidly being pillaged and people arguing over packs of Carling. We're doomed.
We will know the nation is only treating this illness seriously when there's no booze in the supermarkets.
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
It seems younger people aren't much less likely to end up in intensive care (for those that have a bad reaction) but they are much less likely to die of it.
My sister has just text me. She was in Tesco tonight to get a bottle of wine. The booze shelves rapidly being pillaged and people arguing over packs of Carling. We're doomed.
We will know the nation is only treating this illness seriously when there's no booze in the supermarkets.
Just posted on local Facebook. My middle (yr7) son's school at close this afternoon. The whole school applauding the year 11 students out the door. Her already told me a lot of year 11 have been crying as they're suddenly leaving their friends unexpectedly.
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
It seems younger people aren't much less likely to end up in intensive care (for those that have a bad reaction) but they are much less likely to die of it.
That is the reason ventilator capacity is needed.
Absolutely. And hopefully the new machines being put together can really achieve this - if they are available within the next week (and at scale) it would make a massive difference by the sound of it. Did your source give an ETA or is it still too early to say?
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
It seems younger people aren't much less likely to end up in intensive care (for those that have a bad reaction) but they are much less likely to die of it.
That is the reason ventilator capacity is needed.
Absolutely. And hopefully the new machines being put together can really achieve this - if they are available within the next week (and at scale) it would make a massive difference by the sound of it. Did your source give an ETA or is it still too early to say?
Time is certainly of the essence, but the team are fully aware of this.
They do need to what it says on the tin. I have full and entire faith in the design team.
Comments
That being said, the increase in testing was so significant yesterday that, even if CV-19 incidence was in decline, you'd still expect to see an increase in diagnoses.
It would be sensible to put together a hybrid measure, that took into account both the proportion positive, and the raw number. If I wasn't really busy, I'd have a go
I hope you don't mind, but I looked at your email address in the system. Are you who your email address says you are?
Can you seriously imagine Corbyn and crew handling this, yes Boris is useless but he is using the experts and science and a talented Chancellor to the full.
(I'm not sure exactly how comparable those figures are, though, there are no doubt a lot of other differences in things like benefits).
Foxtons apologises after the tenant was told they could self-isolate "anywhere" but the property they were renting.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-foxtons-tells-tenant-having-covid-19-cannot-stop-landlord-viewings-11960870
Nothing is weirder on twitter than non landlords steaming in on a thread to defend landlords.
10 - sainthood guaranteed
to...
0 - eats babies
Foxtons estate agents come far, far below most private sector landlords.
Oh God No.
Imagine it - they would have implemented social distancing by closing only the businesses of evil capitalist scumbags. They would have announced a subsidy for furloughs workers paid for by Richard Branson and the scum who own Thames Water...
https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/1241077961362673664?s=21
https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1241082273199460354
My son just texted me to say most of his Corbyn loving friends are praising Boris on facebook.......
Head of the French health authority Jérôme Salomon in his daily update said the situation was worsening rapidly in France. Urged people to follow strictly the advice keep 1m distance and wash hands.
It is “urgent” to do this, he said. There are now 12,612 confirmed cases in France, and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50% under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-deaths-italy-uk-us-australia-europe-vaccine-china-global-economy-toll-latest-update-news
Just to be clear the preceding sentence is intended to be a parody of an anti-semite's position and one that I completely reject.
And I've had a couple of excellent ones.
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1241084737923547148
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1241080752403632130?s=20
When I lived in a pub, by far our largest bill was the rent to the brewery. It was what drove my parents out, in time.
Hopefully the small business grants already announced and the VAT deferment will help, but if this goes past a month or two, they’re going to need help with the rents.
However, for the first time, I’m believing that Rishi will help them out as well when it becomes apparent that it’s needed.
Good times, good times.
So they basically become bed and room service only
It would be nice to think the extra profits made by the supermarket could be donated to help others - I imagine finding 20,000 staff from somewhere will obviate the need of some individuals to draw on Sunak's Sink Fund.
The Vatican has had only 1 case
WHO IS @JM1 ?
A wonderful gesture from their class
They do need to what it says on the tin. I have full and entire faith in the design team.