Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
I. The relevant number is probably the population over 60, not the total population.
2. If you are going to compare, I would probably look at deaths in Italy, France & Germany over the entire timescale of the pandemic. There are a number of reasons why I would not normalise to China.
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
For all these reasons, it’s going to be a deferred gift. It just won’t be called that yet.
It needs to be called that now before people start being laid off. There really is no time to waste.
Which is why the CBI/German 'negative NI' idea is interesting, since it is a direct subsidy to keeping staff on.
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
The proposals were a step in the right direction. He said there is more to come so reluctant to judge it too harshly, on its own its a plaster to fix something needing 10 stitches, but sure they will do more.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I would recommend argan oil. It's amazing stuff. Totally natural and free from nasties. Slap it on anywhere, it's miracle oil. It's fairly expensive but you can get a big bottle online for about 12 quid.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
I think we will see a swing left in terms of economics - but then that is already well underway. We will also see greater emphasis on healthcare and social protection generally, which also plays to the left. However I’d also expect other changes in social attitudes that most would see as conservative, in particular further moved away from globalised free trading economic liberalism, and away from individual social liberalism.
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
I doubt we’ll have to worry about immigration for a while.
Will there still be money for Trident replacements and third runways?
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
Fucibet is good, but you can only use it for short periods.
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
For all these reasons, it’s going to be a deferred gift. It just won’t be called that yet.
It needs to be called that now before people start being laid off. There really is no time to waste.
Which is why the CBI/German 'negative NI' idea is interesting, since it is a direct subsidy to keeping staff on.
Speed is essential. Layoffs are already happening.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
This "sunshine" of which you speak - where does one find that?
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
My wife has given me something based on Lotriderm Cream, which is working quite well for me at the moment.
The anti-virus handwashing has basically destroyed my hands. I was in agony yesterday.
I've stopped washing up and going out (at all) for 48 hours!
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
thwey are not spending it all are they? most of it is loans and guarantees
If you add the total economic impact, the individual cost might be higher than £1.75M.
Tax revenues will plummet, social insurance and NHS costs will rocket. The government finances are in a mess before it gets to compensation/protection.
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
thwey are not spending it all are they? most of it is loans and guarantees
If you add the total economic impact, the individual cost might be higher than £1.75M.
Tax revenues will plummet, social insurance and NHS costs will rocket. The government finances are in a mess before it gets to compensation/protection.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Maybe we’ll end up with a special mark in people’s passports to show they have the antibodies and can travel freely.
The view seems to be forming that immunity may only last a year or two. Not that we know for sure.
how do they know that when it has only been around since December 2019, crystal ball.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I would recommend argan oil. It's amazing stuff. Totally natural and free from nasties. Slap it on anywhere, it's miracle oil. It's fairly expensive but you can get a big bottle online for about 12 quid.
So natural that the nuts it comes from have been right through a goat before the oil is made.
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
The proposals were a step in the right direction. He said there is more to come so reluctant to judge it too harshly, on its own its a plaster to fix something needing 10 stitches, but sure they will do more.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
My wife has given me something based on Lotriderm Cream, which is working quite well for me at the moment.
The anti-virus handwashing has basically destroyed my hands. I was in agony yesterday.
I've stopped washing up and going out (at all) for 48 hours!
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
thwey are not spending it all are they? most of it is loans and guarantees
If you add the total economic impact, the individual cost might be higher than £1.75M.
Tax revenues will plummet, social insurance and NHS costs will rocket. The government finances are in a mess before it gets to compensation/protection.
Apparently global crisis is always the current Governments mess.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I would recommend argan oil. It's amazing stuff. Totally natural and free from nasties. Slap it on anywhere, it's miracle oil. It's fairly expensive but you can get a big bottle online for about 12 quid.
So natural that the nuts it comes from have been right through a goat before the oil is made.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Maybe we’ll end up with a special mark in people’s passports to show they have the antibodies and can travel freely.
The view seems to be forming that immunity may only last a year or two. Not that we know for sure.
how do they know that when it has only been around since December 2019, crystal ball.
Based on analysis of the virus and knowledge of how the body responds to similar ones, at a guess. None of us are immune to a common cold, after all, even though we don't get two in a row.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
This "sunshine" of which you speak - where does one find that?
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I would recommend argan oil. It's amazing stuff. Totally natural and free from nasties. Slap it on anywhere, it's miracle oil. It's fairly expensive but you can get a big bottle online for about 12 quid.
So natural that the nuts it comes from have been right through a goat before the oil is made.
Their marketing focus group preferred "argan oil" to "goat-shit oil".....
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
The proposals were a step in the right direction. He said there is more to come so reluctant to judge it too harshly, on its own its a plaster to fix something needing 10 stitches, but sure they will do more.
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
And, primarily, elderly lives.
It’s £32 billion actually being spent. So that’s £160,000 per life. Which is somewhat striking but perhaps in a different way.
The financial crisis is estimated to have cost the UK £7.4 Trillion. The impact of corona is expected to be higher than that. If current estimates are true, the total cost for each life saved could be in the tens of millions.
Oh yes, E45 contains lanolin. So be careful of allergy. However I find it better than Norwegian formula (which itself is pretty good)
E45 is utterly useless.
Amidst a few other slight distractions, 2020 became known for one thing: the Great pb.com Hand Cream Spat.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
I have found E45 good. Any hand cream really. Olive oil is good, in extremis.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
I've had people recommend E45 to me my whole life, nurses included.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
There is a special cream for eczema in children but cannot remember the name now. A chemist may be able to help. Sunshine I found best and was recommended by the GP.
This "sunshine" of which you speak - where does one find that?
A surprising amount of it up here.
Don’t all rush at once!
Monday was lovely.
Back to the grey....grey....grey....interminable grey......
The first D boat won't hit the water until 2028 and steel won't be cut on the fourth until 2025. It could easily be cancelled any time in the next few years.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
I made this point yesterday, and I was told it was "satire". FWIW, I think young people will put up for a few weeks of this, but not much more. Why should they put their life on hold for so long?
----
On a more positive note, in August 1665, the University of Cambridge closed because plague ravaged the town.
A twenty-three year old man withdrew to Woolsthorpe Manor, self-isolating for two years against the terrible plague.
He had been an undistinguished student in Cambridge.
He developed theories on optics, gravitation, mechanics and the calculus. It was to mark the end of medievalism in the sciences, the beginning of the modern era.
"He had been an undistinguished student in Cambridge."
The first D boat won't hit the water until 2028 and steel won't be cut on the fourth until 2025. It could easily be cancelled any time in the next few years.
Maybe we could also scrap the aircraft carriers too.
Other defence projects I could see getting the chop:
Tempest (which is never going to amount to anything anyway) Type 31 16 Air Assault Brigade and/or 3 Commando Any of the 20 infantry battalions which don't have brigade level support and are mostly militarily useless
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
At home again today but Mrs Stodge has had to go into work - she's a contractor and the laptops are being issued to the permanent staff first. Her ability to work at home (she uses two screens) will test my IT support skills but I have a plan of sorts.
Have decided my usual cafe in the Barking Road will be off-limits (they do a decent breakfast) but I suspect the "regulars" will be in the Wetherspoons. With schools still open there's a deceptive normality during the day - I'm also wondering if construction sites are still open.
The cafe is run by a nice Turkish couple and apart from passing trade, their "regulars" are a group of teachers who come in for their lunch and a whinge about the children, local council works from the nearby depot and sad old gits like me looking for a decent breakfast and a chance to read what I think will be a very thin Racing Post.
Will the cafe survive? It depends how much people can or will change their lives before they are compelled to. I don't like the idea of Police drones going up and down every street to check we are all indoors and I shall continue my daily walk for as long as I am able - Barking and East Ham aren't without their less unpleasant vistas.
Stay safe everyone - my brother, who has tested positive for COVID-19, is in good spirits and it seems so far to be a mild infection but I worry,
The first D boat won't hit the water until 2028 and steel won't be cut on the fourth until 2025. It could easily be cancelled any time in the next few years.
Maybe we could also scrap the aircraft carriers too.
I could see QE going into dry dock as scheduled in 2023 and not coming out. There certainly doesn't seem to any appetite for more F-35B beyond the initial 48 - which is really only enough for half an air wing for one carrier never mind two.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
I like Rory but think he was out of order and unhelpful last week. Not seen anything to change my mind.
How can he be out of order if he was correct?
Because he didn't have access to the detailed data to KNOW he was correct?
So he was correct but for the wrong reasons?
Rather than outsourcing our thinking to just models, what about observing the world and making a judgement?
Sometimes people can be blinded by models and data. I say that as someone who develops healthcare models for a living.
Having written numerical models myself, I know that they are indeed essential for decision making. However, they have to be used sensibly and, critically, one must be aware of their limitations and the validity of the assumptions on which they are based. These factors must be taken into account when using the model.
Because I thought yesterday's financial measures were - well - rather pathetic. When taken alongside the medical and health measures they announced. Unlike some, I'm not complaining about the Government's approach. Maybe because I actually read the Imperial College paper. "Why didn't they just announce immediate suppression methods?" It's in there - because that could still end up being a bad approach. It's just that - with extra data - we know the only realistic alternative approach would definitely be really bad (adapting to incoming information and changing a plan based on new data? When will that ever catch on). After all, it's the difference between running for it when you see the zombies approach and barricading yourself in. Barricading yourself in will definitely work in the short term - but the zombies are still outside and you're going to have to open the door eventually.)
But the paper, and the briefings, and the scientific advisers made it clear that this disruption is for many months at least, probably over a year, plausibly on the eighteen months to two years level. The financial package implied a disruption of a few weeks. It would be great for that. Sod all help for a year-long-plus disruption.
Take away the loans announcement (as it is, after all, not Government money but opening up a channel to businesses own money in the future), and how much have they actually put in?
Companies can bring their own cash forwards - to an unbelievable amount. We already have a situation with heavy debt loading. Will this simply ensure that any company that follows up on this will be - after coming out blinking from an eighteen month shutdown where they keep paying wages, rent, and finance servicing - simply guaranteed to be zombie companies shuffling about with a debt loading they'll never clear?
Whyever should they not look at this, look at the Government health announcements, and simply shut themselves down (laying off all staff and selling premises) while they still have a positive balance on their balance sheets? Owners hunker down and set up new companies in the aftermath, where competing with the shuffling debt-laden zombie companies who made the mistake of accepting the Governments "help" will never be able to compete? No matter what the terms of the debt (in terms of interest rates and repayment terms) it will still be there when they try to expand, try to pay profits, try to deal with anything else.
(Maybe it's because many people look at loans as "new money" without realising viscerally that it's [i]your own money[/i] brought forwards through time. The lending entity isn't [i]giving[/i] you money, but just acting as a channel for your own money. I have wondered if that's why so many people run into debt problems - not realising that when they borrow money, [i]they[/i] are the actual true lender).
Mortgage holidays - not suspensions. If people can't pay your mortgage - they will be allowed to get further into a hole during the duration. It [i]will[/i] end up costing them considerably more; sucks to be them, eh?
Mortgage suspensions (togather with interest suspensions) everywhere, rent suspensions (which is why BTL mortgages need to be included), business rent suspensions, finance payment (and interest) suspensions, with the Government guaranteeing the liquidity of the finance companies during the "pause" and allowing them to go past financial rules. Direct payments of, say, £600 per adult per month for the duration (with no accommodation costs and no loan/finance servicing costs, this can help people stay going if they lose income).
It feels very much like we're in a car and the driver has shouted "tsunami coming; we're going to have to try to out-drive it!". And then insisted on staying within the speed limit. Whenever we've gone to war, we've had leaders who stayed in the peacetime mindset. We needed Churchill. We've got Chamberlain
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Just to focus on one area and the impacts for a moment - horse racing has been cancelled until the end of April. That means a 43-day period with no racing in the UK.
That means no income for jockeys, valets and on-course bookmakers and hardship for many others in the industry. Off-course bookmakers will also suffer as with a stop in football as well, the main sources of shop revenue will have gone just as the FOBT income has fallen but online operators will be fine and may even do very well with those desperate to gamble but stuck at home..
Racecourses will also suffer as non-racing commercial activities will stop such as conferences, trade shows, meetings and weddings.
Those who rely on racecourse work for casual income - from ground staff to gate people to catering staff, will also be hurt.
I've barely scratched the surface on this one - the more I think about it, the more Sunak's £350 billion sounds woefully inadequate if his aim is to maintain the status quo. Is or should that be the aim?
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
"Destroying the futures" is a ridiculous exaggeration.
I like Rory but think he was out of order and unhelpful last week. Not seen anything to change my mind.
How can he be out of order if he was correct?
Because he didn't have access to the detailed data to KNOW he was correct?
So he was correct but for the wrong reasons?
Rather than outsourcing our thinking to just models, what about observing the world and making a judgement?
Sometimes people can be blinded by models and data. I say that as someone who develops healthcare models for a living.
Having written numerical models myself, I know that they are indeed essential for decision making. However, they have to be used sensibly and, critically, one must be aware of their limitations and the validity of the assumptions on which they are based. These factors must be taken into account when using the model.
It didn't take a PhD to figure that 60% infection for herd immunity with 1% mortality equates to a shit load of dead people.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
Yes we are. The best cohort to be in, from a financial perspective, is public service workers who, no doubt, will be paid in full during a lockdown and have deferred benefit pension schemes which are outside of market risk and a job to go back to when the lockdown ends.
Being cynical for a moment: I wonder if these lucky folk - who tend to be very risk-averse in my experience - are the biggest supporters of a lockdown policy?
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
Just to focus on one area and the impacts for a moment - horse racing has been cancelled until the end of April. That means a 43-day period with no racing in the UK.
That means no income for jockeys, valets and on-course bookmakers and hardship for many others in the industry. Off-course bookmakers will also suffer as with a stop in football as well, the main sources of shop revenue will have gone just as the FOBT income has fallen but online operators will be fine and may even do very well with those desperate to gamble but stuck at home..
Racecourses will also suffer as non-racing commercial activities will stop such as conferences, trade shows, meetings and weddings.
Those who rely on racecourse work for casual income - from ground staff to gate people to catering staff, will also be hurt.
I've barely scratched the surface on this one - the more I think about it, the more Sunak's £350 billion sounds woefully inadequate if his aim is to maintain the status quo. Is or should that be the aim?
These very wide and complex incomes problems can only be solved by a universal income, as the Americans are apparently moving towards.
Final from me for now - a thought to those Council staff who will continue providing services to vulnerable children and adults through all this. A lot of adult and child social care work is done on a 1-1 basis and involves home visits with all that entails in the current climate.
There is a balancing act and some Services will be curtailed but kudos to those who carry on helping the most vulnerable in our society.
At home again today but Mrs Stodge has had to go into work - she's a contractor and the laptops are being issued to the permanent staff first. Her ability to work at home (she uses two screens) will test my IT support skills but I have a plan of sorts.
Have decided my usual cafe in the Barking Road will be off-limits (they do a decent breakfast) but I suspect the "regulars" will be in the Wetherspoons. With schools still open there's a deceptive normality during the day - I'm also wondering if construction sites are still open.
The cafe is run by a nice Turkish couple and apart from passing trade, their "regulars" are a group of teachers who come in for their lunch and a whinge about the children, local council works from the nearby depot and sad old gits like me looking for a decent breakfast and a chance to read what I think will be a very thin Racing Post.
Will the cafe survive? It depends how much people can or will change their lives before they are compelled to. I don't like the idea of Police drones going up and down every street to check we are all indoors and I shall continue my daily walk for as long as I am able - Barking and East Ham aren't without their less unpleasant vistas.
Stay safe everyone - my brother, who has tested positive for COVID-19, is in good spirits and it seems so far to be a mild infection but I worry,
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Given HS2 isn’t going to open until 2031 I think you might be indulging in a touch of wishful, cranky thinking.
So my colonoscopy booked for Friday has been cancelled. I dread to think what the elective surgery backlog is going to be on the other side of this... I was supposed to have my surgery that didn’t have at Christmas in July/August, but I think that’s incredibly unlikely now.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
If only those oldies had had the foresight not to have any children then the young would so much better off.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
Yes we are. The best cohort to be in, from a financial perspective, is public service workers who, no doubt, will be paid in full during a lockdown and have deferred benefit pension schemes which are outside of market risk and a job to go back to when the lockdown ends.
Being cynical for a moment: I wonder if these lucky folk - who tend to be very risk-averse in my experience - are the biggest supporters of a lockdown policy?
Weren't the advocates of the earlier flattened curve and herd immunity strategy also in the public sector?
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Get a grip. HS2 is a railway for the next hundred years. Unless China manages to keep a steady stream of live bat viruses coming out every few years, we will get back to normal.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
In a nutshell.
Robbing them of their gap year options maybe. Giving them an excuse not to go see the Crumblies, for sure. But "destroying the futures" is a bit over the top.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
Really sorry to hear how you're feeling.
Having been in the depths of depression before, I know it might not help. But you won't be alone, and as a nation we'll do whatever it takes to get back to normal, afterwards.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
This is the quandary, we are destroying the futures of many young people for years to try to extend the lifes of mainly very old and ill people.
Yes we are. The best cohort to be in, from a financial perspective, is public service workers who, no doubt, will be paid in full during a lockdown and have deferred benefit pension schemes which are outside of market risk and a job to go back to when the lockdown ends.
Being cynical for a moment: I wonder if these lucky folk - who tend to be very risk-averse in my experience - are the biggest supporters of a lockdown policy?
Weren't the advocates of the earlier flattened curve and herd immunity strategy also in the public sector?
Yes they were, I was making a general point rather than a universal one.
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
I like Rory but think he was out of order and unhelpful last week. Not seen anything to change my mind.
How can he be out of order if he was correct?
Because he didn't have access to the detailed data to KNOW he was correct?
So he was correct but for the wrong reasons?
Rather than outsourcing our thinking to just models, what about observing the world and making a judgement?
Sometimes people can be blinded by models and data. I say that as someone who develops healthcare models for a living.
Having written numerical models myself, I know that they are indeed essential for decision making. However, they have to be used sensibly and, critically, one must be aware of their limitations and the validity of the assumptions on which they are based. These factors must be taken into account when using the model.
It didn't take a PhD to figure that 60% infection for herd immunity with 1% mortality equates to a shit load of dead people.
Well, yes, but I think the initial assumption, based on Chinese data, was that the mortality would be lower than that. Italy was what changed the equation. They should, of course, have taken more account the fact that the initially assumed mortality rate may have been off when deciding to base a high-risk policy on that model.
So my colonoscopy booked for Friday has been cancelled. I dread to think what the elective surgery backlog is going to be on the other side of this... I was supposed to have my surgery that didn’t have at Christmas in July/August, but I think that’s incredibly unlikely now.
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Get a grip. HS2 is a railway for the next hundred years. Unless China manages to keep a steady stream of live bat viruses coming out every few years, we will get back to normal.
We will, but for the next few months, clerical workers working from home is the new normal. That leads to a lot of questions about whether we need to keep vastly expanding London's commuter base.
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Get a grip. HS2 is a railway for the next hundred years. Unless China manages to keep a steady stream of live bat viruses coming out every few years, we will get back to normal.
Terrorists might even if China doesn't since the tech you'd need to create bioweapons is getting cheaper and easier to hide...
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear this. Let's hope it turns out at the better end of the range of possibles. I'm going to start feeding money into equities soon, I think.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
There's no reason not to think that in a couple of years the economy will be fully functioning again and, whilst there will be damage from this crisis, the majority of investments will be recovering their value.
Unlike in the old days, the new pension flexibility means that you don't have to crystalise the value of your fund on retirement day, but can leave it invested and take out just what you need, as you go along. During which time the remainder will hopefully be recovering in value. If you are very near retirement, go get some good advice.
Oops sorry my first comment was based on a typo in the guardian. :sigh:
For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
You definitely should have posted that as it shows the choice that this Country has taken. What surprises me is that the dramatic increases in winter deaths that happen regulalrly because of a nasty bout of flu, 40,000+ in some years, gets absolutely no coverage and nothing is done. For Covid-19 we have decided to destroy the economy, our way of life and peoples futures. I may be wrong but I cannot see the death toll in this Country from Covid-19 getting anywhere near 40,000.
I like Rory but think he was out of order and unhelpful last week. Not seen anything to change my mind.
How can he be out of order if he was correct?
Because he didn't have access to the detailed data to KNOW he was correct?
So he was correct but for the wrong reasons?
Rather than outsourcing our thinking to just models, what about observing the world and making a judgement?
Sometimes people can be blinded by models and data. I say that as someone who develops healthcare models for a living.
Having written numerical models myself, I know that they are indeed essential for decision making. However, they have to be used sensibly and, critically, one must be aware of their limitations and the validity of the assumptions on which they are based. These factors must be taken into account when using the model.
It didn't take a PhD to figure that 60% infection for herd immunity with 1% mortality equates to a shit load of dead people.
Literally everyone who did the back of the fag packet calculation came to the completely obvious conclusion.
I wonder if HS2 might come back on to the table. Desperation to get to and from London to get riddled with something seems a bit silly now, when we're all being asked to work from home anyway. People working out of London are 100% the same as people working out of Scunthorpe now.
Get a grip. HS2 is a railway for the next hundred years. Unless China manages to keep a steady stream of live bat viruses coming out every few years, we will get back to normal.
Terrorists might even if China doesn't since the tech you'd need to create bioweapons is getting cheaper and easier to hide...
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
There's no reason not to think that in a couple of years the economy will be fully functioning again and, whilst there will be damage from this crisis, the majority of investments will be recovering their value.
Unlike in the old days, the new pension flexibility means that you don't have to crystalise the value of your fund on retirement day, but can leave it invested and take out just what you need, as you go along. During which time the remainder will hopefully be recovering in value. If you are very near retirement, go get some good advice.
Indeed. Not only may the economy may be fully functioning again in a couple of years, it may be functioning on a better long-term basis, with incomes policies widely accepted.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear this. Let's hope it turns out at the better end of the range of possibles. I'm going to start feeding money into equities soon, I think.
"Feeding money" is probably a good move - if it implies dripping it in incrementally.
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
One of my pet peeves is journos who mix up their millions and their billions. If they can be casually out a thousand-fold, then they really haven't understood a thing they are writing about.
Anyone who thinks £350 million is what is being offered to solve the nation's virus woes has no concept of our public finances.
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
One outcome of this could be a boycott China movement - until they pay reparations.
Harsh to blame China for long-standing cultural practices.
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
Sorry to hear of your smashed retirement plans. We can only hope this is a V shaped financial crisis.
Thanks - I probably shouldn`t have posted that, but I`m feeling pretty wretched right now.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
You definitely should have posted that as it shows the choice that this Country has taken. What surprises me is that the dramatic increases in winter deaths that happen regulalrly because of a nasty bout of flu, 40,000+ in some years, gets absolutely no coverage and nothing is done. For Covid-19 we have decided to destroy the economy, our way of life and peoples futures. I may be wrong but I cannot see the death toll in this Country from Covid-19 getting anywhere near 40,000.
Sigh - do nothing and watch the death toll rocket
Only be taking these measures can we hope to keep the deaths to around 20k
But that appears to be best case, how likely it is we can get away with that I do not know
Have the government stated how many lives they hope to save from the action they have taken?
Aren't they saying they hope to keep deaths below 20,000 about 6 times more than China who have a much larger population
If the government is spending £350,000,000,000 to save 200,000 lives thats £1.75M each. That is quite striking.
This is one of the most stupid comments I have ever heard. For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
One of my pet peeves is journos who mix up their millions and their billions. If they can be casually out a thousand-fold, then they really haven't understood a thing they are writing about.
Anyone who thinks £350 million is what is being offered to solve the nation's virus woes has no concept of our public finances.
Yup. I was once taught (at work) that if you are talking about millions re: public finances you are almost certainly wrong. That one piece of advice has helped me catch several mistakes over the years.
Comments
2. If you are going to compare, I would probably look at deaths in Italy, France & Germany over the entire timescale of the pandemic. There are a number of reasons why I would not normalise to China.
I find it absolutely crap. It does nothing to relieve my eczema or the dryness on my hands. Only really good handcream does that, or hydrocortisone.
E45 leaves them slobbery, sloppy and wet (and unable to do anything for a good 20 minutes) after which I'm back to square one again.
Says he's been in a meeting with Boris recently.
Third runway is probably gone.
Can you collect for all PBers please
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1239960523866877953?s=19
The anti-virus handwashing has basically destroyed my hands. I was in agony yesterday.
I've stopped washing up and going out (at all) for 48 hours!
Don’t all rush at once!
Amazing how touchy the lefty propagandists on here get when one suggests China should clean up its mess.
If this was a US oil or nuclear leak they would want Trump down on his knees with a scrubbing brush.
This was caused by a major nation continuing stupid selfish practices which previously caused outbreaks of disease.
What is China doing to make amends ?
Back to the grey....grey....grey....interminable grey......
https://www.colonialismreparation.org/en/
If any PBers are planning on visiting a cafe or pub today, please keep this information to yourself.
Hopefully nobody has such plans, and we can all pull together.
As you said a few days ago.
TSE's ears prick up.....
A socially responsible thing to do or not?
Tempest (which is never going to amount to anything anyway)
Type 31
16 Air Assault Brigade and/or 3 Commando
Any of the 20 infantry battalions which don't have brigade level support and are mostly militarily useless
However I do think the it has proved significant that China got hit first from a global response perspective. The lockdown model radiated out from China and western governments have been put under extreme pressure to follow it, thereby making health considerations the one-and-only driver (despite the low mortality rate).
As I have said before, the economic and loss of freedoms hit will be crushing to us all, whether we contract the virus or not.
If the virus hit USA first, or us first, I think that the balance of considerations would have been different and the global response accordingly.
From a personal perspective, I`m not scared of the virus at all. My concern is financial for my family and I`m trying desperately to limit the damage, but it`s too late. My retirement is destroyed, I can`t financially protect my children as I would have liked (they are still at school, one in GCSE year). Where are they going to get jobs. Feeling pretty destroyed this morning. Stupid, stupid lockdown policy. That`s the culprit, not the virus.
At home again today but Mrs Stodge has had to go into work - she's a contractor and the laptops are being issued to the permanent staff first. Her ability to work at home (she uses two screens) will test my IT support skills but I have a plan of sorts.
Have decided my usual cafe in the Barking Road will be off-limits (they do a decent breakfast) but I suspect the "regulars" will be in the Wetherspoons. With schools still open there's a deceptive normality during the day - I'm also wondering if construction sites are still open.
The cafe is run by a nice Turkish couple and apart from passing trade, their "regulars" are a group of teachers who come in for their lunch and a whinge about the children, local council works from the nearby depot and sad old gits like me looking for a decent breakfast and a chance to read what I think will be a very thin Racing Post.
Will the cafe survive? It depends how much people can or will change their lives before they are compelled to. I don't like the idea of Police drones going up and down every street to check we are all indoors and I shall continue my daily walk for as long as I am able - Barking and East Ham aren't without their less unpleasant vistas.
Stay safe everyone - my brother, who has tested positive for COVID-19, is in good spirits and it seems so far to be a mild infection but I worry,
That's our household
Any details on how one would register for this? How they will determine who needs it?
I can't see any detail in the news reports.
Rather than outsourcing our thinking to just models, what about observing the world and making a judgement?
Sometimes people can be blinded by models and data. I say that as someone who develops healthcare models for a living.
Because I thought yesterday's financial measures were - well - rather pathetic. When taken alongside the medical and health measures they announced.
Unlike some, I'm not complaining about the Government's approach. Maybe because I actually read the Imperial College paper. "Why didn't they just announce immediate suppression methods?" It's in there - because that could still end up being a bad approach. It's just that - with extra data - we know the only realistic alternative approach would definitely be really bad (adapting to incoming information and changing a plan based on new data? When will that ever catch on). After all, it's the difference between running for it when you see the zombies approach and barricading yourself in. Barricading yourself in will definitely work in the short term - but the zombies are still outside and you're going to have to open the door eventually.)
But the paper, and the briefings, and the scientific advisers made it clear that this disruption is for many months at least, probably over a year, plausibly on the eighteen months to two years level. The financial package implied a disruption of a few weeks. It would be great for that. Sod all help for a year-long-plus disruption.
Take away the loans announcement (as it is, after all, not Government money but opening up a channel to businesses own money in the future), and how much have they actually put in?
Companies can bring their own cash forwards - to an unbelievable amount. We already have a situation with heavy debt loading. Will this simply ensure that any company that follows up on this will be - after coming out blinking from an eighteen month shutdown where they keep paying wages, rent, and finance servicing - simply guaranteed to be zombie companies shuffling about with a debt loading they'll never clear?
Whyever should they not look at this, look at the Government health announcements, and simply shut themselves down (laying off all staff and selling premises) while they still have a positive balance on their balance sheets? Owners hunker down and set up new companies in the aftermath, where competing with the shuffling debt-laden zombie companies who made the mistake of accepting the Governments "help" will never be able to compete? No matter what the terms of the debt (in terms of interest rates and repayment terms) it will still be there when they try to expand, try to pay profits, try to deal with anything else.
(Maybe it's because many people look at loans as "new money" without realising viscerally that it's [i]your own money[/i] brought forwards through time. The lending entity isn't [i]giving[/i] you money, but just acting as a channel for your own money. I have wondered if that's why so many people run into debt problems - not realising that when they borrow money, [i]they[/i] are the actual true lender).
Mortgage holidays - not suspensions. If people can't pay your mortgage - they will be allowed to get further into a hole during the duration. It [i]will[/i] end up costing them considerably more; sucks to be them, eh?
Mortgage suspensions (togather with interest suspensions) everywhere, rent suspensions (which is why BTL mortgages need to be included), business rent suspensions, finance payment (and interest) suspensions, with the Government guaranteeing the liquidity of the finance companies during the "pause" and allowing them to go past financial rules. Direct payments of, say, £600 per adult per month for the duration (with no accommodation costs and no loan/finance servicing costs, this can help people stay going if they lose income).
It feels very much like we're in a car and the driver has shouted "tsunami coming; we're going to have to try to out-drive it!". And then insisted on staying within the speed limit. Whenever we've gone to war, we've had leaders who stayed in the peacetime mindset. We needed Churchill. We've got Chamberlain
(2/2)
My sense is that the Big Controller is taking a short pause and weighing this one up. Fingers crossed for the beneficent choice.
That means no income for jockeys, valets and on-course bookmakers and hardship for many others in the industry. Off-course bookmakers will also suffer as with a stop in football as well, the main sources of shop revenue will have gone just as the FOBT income has fallen but online operators will be fine and may even do very well with those desperate to gamble but stuck at home..
Racecourses will also suffer as non-racing commercial activities will stop such as conferences, trade shows, meetings and weddings.
Those who rely on racecourse work for casual income - from ground staff to gate people to catering staff, will also be hurt.
I've barely scratched the surface on this one - the more I think about it, the more Sunak's £350 billion sounds woefully inadequate if his aim is to maintain the status quo. Is or should that be the aim?
Being cynical for a moment: I wonder if these lucky folk - who tend to be very risk-averse in my experience - are the biggest supporters of a lockdown policy?
For a start you have written 350 Billion not 350 Million the figure being quoted in the newspapers. That alone brings your figure down to 1.75 thousand per "life saved"
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
Makes whether or not I`m in the green on my political bets of negligible consequence.
There is a balancing act and some Services will be curtailed but kudos to those who carry on helping the most vulnerable in our society.
More wasted years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51935467
I am making no moral judgement, just pointing out the maths. Things get lost when it gets into billions and trillions.
Robbing them of their gap year options maybe. Giving them an excuse not to go see the Crumblies, for sure. But "destroying the futures" is a bit over the top.
Having been in the depths of depression before, I know it might not help. But you won't be alone, and as a nation we'll do whatever it takes to get back to normal, afterwards.
Racist Tory bastards.
Unlike in the old days, the new pension flexibility means that you don't have to crystalise the value of your fund on retirement day, but can leave it invested and take out just what you need, as you go along. During which time the remainder will hopefully be recovering in value. If you are very near retirement, go get some good advice.
Oops sorry my first comment was based on a typo in the guardian. :sigh:
But regardless of the exact figures you need to compare how much doing nothing costs. It could easily end up costing more on a national level, 200,000 families in mourning and a health service brought to its knees.
What surprises me is that the dramatic increases in winter deaths that happen regulalrly because of a nasty bout of flu, 40,000+ in some years, gets absolutely no coverage and nothing is done. For Covid-19 we have decided to destroy the economy, our way of life and peoples futures. I may be wrong but I cannot see the death toll in this Country from Covid-19 getting anywhere near 40,000.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1240171876695117824?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1240171876695117824&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-live-news-updates-outbreak-us-states-uk-australia-europe-eu-self-isolation-lockdown-latest-update
Stay safe sir, we need you on the frontline.
Anyone who thinks £350 million is what is being offered to solve the nation's virus woes has no concept of our public finances.
Not needing experts is just so 2019.
Only be taking these measures can we hope to keep the deaths to around 20k
But that appears to be best case, how likely it is we can get away with that I do not know