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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 betting Trump’s at 55% and declining with Biden

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 betting Trump’s at 55% and declining with Biden at 39% and rising

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  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    4% seems a little low for Sanders at this stage, does he still have a chance in the Midwest/Michigan?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    What of the lady veeps? With the virus all bets are off on who will be the nominee surely?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    The demented versus the dementiad.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Never before has there been such a battle to find the lesser of two lessers.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    another_richard said:

    The demented versus the dementiad.

    The USA desperately needs the CoronaVirus ....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Beibheirli_C said:

    another_richard said:

    The demented versus the dementiad.

    The USA desperately needs the CoronaVirus ....
    Wishing death on people is never a good look.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    I see 538's forecast is going up and down like a yo-yo. What's the point of a forecast if it's only reactive and not predictive? :p
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    another_richard said:

    The demented versus the dementiad.

    The USA desperately needs the CoronaVirus ....
    Wishing death on people is never a good look.
    Nature red in tooth and claw. Darwin did not like it either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Anecdote: a friend of my wife's thinks the the whole virus thing is being totally over-egged by the media. It's just like seasonal flu.


    Sound familiar?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    edited March 2020
    Given the age of the three remaining players (Trump, Biden & Sanders) in the comedy - is there a market where I can get odds on the President in 2022 (say) not being one of them? Whoever is Vice President has a very high chance of being called upon...
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    edited March 2020
    On the island, can I just get access to the shipping forecast to listen to, and a copy of VALIS by Philip K Dick, and for the film, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya.

    EDIT: Not island, obviously. Quarantine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1236085176641470464?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Priti Patel victim of 'smear campaign', say 100 of home secretary's supporters

    In a newspaper letter, a group say the under pressure Cabinet minister has "never crossed a line or lost her temper".

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-victim-of-smear-campaign-say-100-of-home-secretarys-supporters-11950798
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    Is there already a market up on whether the election will in fact take place, and if so, what are the odds?

    Re Desert Island Discs

    I can't break the music part down to individual tracks, I'd go with three albums/sets:
    J.S. Bach "Die Brandenburgischen Konzerte"
    Miles Davis "Kind of Blue"
    Link Wray "Live at the Paradiso"

    Film: "The Apartment" Billy Wilder

    Book: "Die Phänomenologie des Geistes" G.W.F. Hegel
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel victim of 'smear campaign', say 100 of home secretary's supporters

    In a newspaper letter, a group say the under pressure Cabinet minister has "never crossed a line or lost her temper".

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-victim-of-smear-campaign-say-100-of-home-secretarys-supporters-11950798

    Bovine manure.

    I don't believe anyone has never lost their temper.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel victim of 'smear campaign', say 100 of home secretary's supporters

    In a newspaper letter, a group say the under pressure Cabinet minister has "never crossed a line or lost her temper".

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-victim-of-smear-campaign-say-100-of-home-secretarys-supporters-11950798

    Bovine manure.

    I don't believe anyone has never lost their temper.
    I have known people that have never lost their temper at work. I am one of them.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    matthiasfromhamburg said:

    Is there already a market up on whether the election will in fact take place, and if so, what are the odds?

    Re Desert Island Discs

    I can't break the music part down to individual tracks, I'd go with three albums/sets:
    J.S. Bach "Die Brandenburgischen Konzerte"
    Miles Davis "Kind of Blue"
    Link Wray "Live at the Paradiso"

    Film: "The Apartment" Billy Wilder

    Book: "Die Phänomenologie des Geistes" G.W.F. Hegel

    There is nothing in the constitution that allows a federal election to be postponed. They had one during the civil war when half the country was in open rebellion and could not participate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Priti Patel victim of 'smear campaign', say 100 of home secretary's supporters

    In a newspaper letter, a group say the under pressure Cabinet minister has "never crossed a line or lost her temper".

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-victim-of-smear-campaign-say-100-of-home-secretarys-supporters-11950798

    Bovine manure.

    I don't believe anyone has never lost their temper.
    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Trump at -4 approval with Rasmussen. That's a poor number for him/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    dodrade said:

    4% seems a little low for Sanders at this stage, does he still have a chance in the Midwest/Michigan?

    Sanders needs to win Idaho, North Dakota, Washington and Michigan next Tuesday to keep the race alive I think.
    I think Biden will run it up in Missouri and Mississippi.

    Biden has a colossal advantage in Florida for instance.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:


    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?

    They're doing it to produce that specific reaction: You take someone who is definitely corrupt and a liar (and allegedly also a workplace bully, but let's wait and see on that one) and make a false claim equal and opposite to the true claims, and make people think, "well the truth is probably somewhere in the middle". But it's not. She's corrupt and a liar, in a way that most politicians aren't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1236102193289322496?s=21
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:


    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?

    They're doing it to produce that specific reaction: You take someone who is definitely corrupt and a liar (and allegedly also a workplace bully, but let's wait and see on that one) and make an false claim equal and opposite to the true claims, and make people think, "well the truth is probably somewhere in the middle".
    People forget why she was originally fired.

    She went to Israel to meet with government ministers there. She was asked about it by the Prime Minister. She lied, and said it was a holiday.

    The story came out. And she lied to the Prime Minister again. It was a holiday, and they'd contacted her on the holiday, so she'd done the meetings, and it wasn't meant to be work.

    And then it turned out there had been no holiday.

    Very few people get away with lying to the Prime Minister once. Priti somehow got away with it the first time.

    The second time... goodbye Priti.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    So... this Desert Island lark.

    My understanding is that one is supposed to come up with a number of pieces of music, a book and a movie.

    And wasn't there a luxury too?

    So. Music...

    Radiohead (Kid A, The Bends, In Rainbows)
    The National (Boxer)
    Simon & Garfunkel (Greatest Hits, yeah it's a cop out, bite me)
    Paramore (After Laughter)
    Paul Simon (Rhythm of the Saints)

    Book. Singular.
    How long am I going to be on this island? Needs to be big. Needs to be re-readable. Probably shouldn't be something I've already read. War & Peace, as suggested by @SandyRentool, sounds perfect.

    Movie.
    Tough one. I'm passing on Sandy's suggestion here, and going for something I've not seen yet: Parasite

    Luxury.
    Laptop with internet connection so I can keep abreast of the latest discussion on PB.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Prince Andrew hires General Pinochet's former lawyer as he fights FBI Epstein probe"

    (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2020/03/06/prince-andrews-legal-team-revealed-fights-fbi-epstein-probe/
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    Gabs3 said:

    matthiasfromhamburg said:

    Is there already a market up on whether the election will in fact take place, and if so, what are the odds?

    Re Desert Island Discs

    I can't break the music part down to individual tracks, I'd go with three albums/sets:
    J.S. Bach "Die Brandenburgischen Konzerte"
    Miles Davis "Kind of Blue"
    Link Wray "Live at the Paradiso"

    Film: "The Apartment" Billy Wilder

    Book: "Die Phänomenologie des Geistes" G.W.F. Hegel

    There is nothing in the constitution that allows a federal election to be postponed. They had one during the civil war when half the country was in open rebellion and could not participate.
    I'm aware of these facts, but there's a first for everything, as historians say.

    US Constitution vs. Donald Trump, MD
    What are his correct odds?
    1/1 million ?
    1/500 ?
    1/25 ?

    Once the plague really starts to bite he will come under pressure. He may decide to go all in. Who's going to stop him and his guys - the soldiers and the cops and the gun nuts and the bikers?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:


    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?

    They're doing it to produce that specific reaction: You take someone who is definitely corrupt and a liar (and allegedly also a workplace bully, but let's wait and see on that one) and make an false claim equal and opposite to the true claims, and make people think, "well the truth is probably somewhere in the middle".
    People forget why she was originally fired.

    She went to Israel to meet with government ministers there. She was asked about it by the Prime Minister. She lied, and said it was a holiday.

    The story came out. And she lied to the Prime Minister again. It was a holiday, and they'd contacted her on the holiday, so she'd done the meetings, and it wasn't meant to be work.

    And then it turned out there had been no holiday.

    Very few people get away with lying to the Prime Minister once. Priti somehow got away with it the first time.

    The second time... goodbye Priti.
    I remember her being slimmer. If her Israeli friends want to take her out in their tank again I doubt she’d fit through the hatch. She’s wider now than tall.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    matthiasfromhamburg said:


    I'm aware of these facts, but there's a first for everything, as historians say.

    US Constitution vs. Donald Trump, MD
    What are his correct odds?
    1/1 million ?
    1/500 ?
    1/25 ?

    Once the plague really starts to bite he will come under pressure. He may decide to go all in. Who's going to stop him and his guys - the soldiers and the cops and the gun nuts and the bikers?

    I don't think he'd postpone the election when the crisis was giving him a perfect chance to rig it by using it to prevent opposing voters from voting, in the manner of Frank Underwood.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    egg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:


    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?

    They're doing it to produce that specific reaction: You take someone who is definitely corrupt and a liar (and allegedly also a workplace bully, but let's wait and see on that one) and make an false claim equal and opposite to the true claims, and make people think, "well the truth is probably somewhere in the middle".
    People forget why she was originally fired.

    She went to Israel to meet with government ministers there. She was asked about it by the Prime Minister. She lied, and said it was a holiday.

    The story came out. And she lied to the Prime Minister again. It was a holiday, and they'd contacted her on the holiday, so she'd done the meetings, and it wasn't meant to be work.

    And then it turned out there had been no holiday.

    Very few people get away with lying to the Prime Minister once. Priti somehow got away with it the first time.

    The second time... goodbye Priti.
    I remember her being slimmer. If her Israeli friends want to take her out in their tank again I doubt she’d fit through the hatch. She’s wider now than tall.
    Israeli Merkava tanks are entered from the rear through a door like an APC.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236107017086894080?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rcs1000 said:

    So... this Desert Island lark.

    My understanding is that one is supposed to come up with a number of pieces of music, a book and a movie.

    And wasn't there a luxury too?

    So. Music...

    Radiohead (Kid A, The Bends, In Rainbows)
    The National (Boxer)
    Simon & Garfunkel (Greatest Hits, yeah it's a cop out, bite me)
    Paramore (After Laughter)
    Paul Simon (Rhythm of the Saints)

    Book. Singular.
    How long am I going to be on this island? Needs to be big. Needs to be re-readable. Probably shouldn't be something I've already read. War & Peace, as suggested by @SandyRentool, sounds perfect.

    Movie.
    Tough one. I'm passing on Sandy's suggestion here, and going for something I've not seen yet: Parasite

    Luxury.
    Laptop with internet connection so I can keep abreast of the latest discussion on PB.

    I am pretty sure that the internet is agains the rules of the programme and not an admissible choice for a luxury.

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    egg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:


    I loathe the binary nature of this crap... Priti has to either be the devil, or she has to be Jesus Christ and Mary rolled into one.

    Whatever happened to nuance?

    They're doing it to produce that specific reaction: You take someone who is definitely corrupt and a liar (and allegedly also a workplace bully, but let's wait and see on that one) and make an false claim equal and opposite to the true claims, and make people think, "well the truth is probably somewhere in the middle".
    People forget why she was originally fired.

    She went to Israel to meet with government ministers there. She was asked about it by the Prime Minister. She lied, and said it was a holiday.

    The story came out. And she lied to the Prime Minister again. It was a holiday, and they'd contacted her on the holiday, so she'd done the meetings, and it wasn't meant to be work.

    And then it turned out there had been no holiday.

    Very few people get away with lying to the Prime Minister once. Priti somehow got away with it the first time.

    The second time... goodbye Priti.
    I remember her being slimmer. If her Israeli friends want to take her out in their tank again I doubt she’d fit through the hatch. She’s wider now than tall.
    Israeli Merkava tanks are entered from the rear through a door like an APC.
    Still bit of a push I think 😆
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    rottenborough said:

    Anecdote: a friend of my wife's thinks the the whole virus thing is being totally over-egged by the media. It's just like seasonal flu.


    Sound familiar?

    Making reference to the Carl T Bergstrom tweet below...

    If it is just like seasonal flu, and the world follows the "with protective measures" strategy then everything is OK.

    If it is just like seasonal flu, and the world doesn't follow the "with protective measures" strategy then everything is OK.

    If it is much worse than seasonal flu, and the world follows the "with protective measures" strategy then we'll cope.

    If it much worse than seasonal flu, and the world doesn't follow the "with protective measures" strategy then there will be a global disaster.

    Question: which stategy, with/without protective measures, is the most sensible?
This discussion has been closed.