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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

The poll did not cover the type of information so it is to be expected that percentages consuming what we think of as “news” are a lot lower.

Read the full story here


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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Maybe Facebook will make things easier. If the parties can come up with nice, crisp messages supporters can foist them on their friends and family, even if they don't usually watch the news. I don't know about anyone else but I get a lot of politics in my Facebook stream, mostly from about half a dozen people.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edmundintokyo said:

    Maybe Facebook will make things easier. If the parties can come up with nice, crisp messages supporters can foist them on their friends and family, even if they don't usually watch the news. I don't know about anyone else but I get a lot of politics in my Facebook stream, mostly from about half a dozen people.

    a fair bit in mine too, much of it pro Scottish Independence- and funnily enough often from people who I hadn't particularly thought of as particularly engaged, politically
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    I guess what you really need in the Facebook age is large numbers of sympathetic, slightly-engaged activists. You may have needed committed people in the past for things like fund-raising and leafletting, but when it comes to social media these people have the same number of friends as everybody else, and may have fewer...

    I think this shows the wisdom of some of Ed Miliband's party reforms, and it also shows why the Tories need to listen to people like Carswell who want to lower the hurdles to joining and build a mass online membership.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    At IndyRef 2014 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before. It will be won or lost primarily "on the ground". And in a secondary role social media will be at least as important as the traditional media.

    Now, here's some quiz questions:

    a) what is the largest political party in Scotland in terms of membership?

    b) which is the only political party in Scotland with flourishing membership numbers?

    c) which Scottish party has highly motivated members who love to get out and knock doors, man street stalls in busy main streets and deliver leaflets?

    d) which Scottish party is best at social media?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "The proportion of the public getting information from national newspapers in print every day fell from 49 per cent in the same study in 2011 to 37 per cent in this year’s study.

    Those getting their information from national newspapers online remained unchanged at 30 per cent."

    That's 67% getting their news from the national newspapers.

    Turnout in 2010 was 65%. I'm expecting it to be lower in 2015.

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    anotherDave said:

    "The proportion of the public getting information from national newspapers in print every day fell from 49 per cent in the same study in 2011 to 37 per cent in this year’s study.

    Those getting their information from national newspapers online remained unchanged at 30 per cent."

    That's 67% getting their news from the national newspapers.

    Turnout in 2010 was 65%. I'm expecting it to be lower in 2015.

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

    That's wrong. The 30% online newspaper readers includes many who read the print editions. Each segment was asked separately

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2013
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    At IndyRef 2014 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before. It will be won or lost primarily "on the ground". And in a secondary role social media will be at least as important as the traditional media.

    Now, here's some quiz questions:

    a) what is the largest political party in Scotland in terms of membership?

    b) which is the only political party in Scotland with flourishing membership numbers?

    c) which Scottish party has highly motivated members who love to get out and knock doors, man street stalls in busy main streets and deliver leaflets?

    d) which Scottish party is best at social media?

    How many of the Scottish by elections has SNP gained since 2010?

  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    It would be interesting to cross correlate against age/probability to vote to see how much impact the change in media use will actually have.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MikeSmithson said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    At IndyRef 2014 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before. It will be won or lost primarily "on the ground". And in a secondary role social media will be at least as important as the traditional media.

    Now, here's some quiz questions:

    a) what is the largest political party in Scotland in terms of membership?

    b) which is the only political party in Scotland with flourishing membership numbers?

    c) which Scottish party has highly motivated members who love to get out and knock doors, man street stalls in busy main streets and deliver leaflets?

    d) which Scottish party is best at social media?

    How many of the Scottish by elections has SNP gained since 2010?

    Since when would one expect a governing party to be making gains in by-elections?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Brave Sir Ed - he ran away!
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I expect that most voters engage more with the traditional media than non-voters. Though the point in the thread header is a valid one.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    tim said:

    @Sun_Politics: Cam: I may fail Brits on immigration http://t.co/x2YYst820e #sunplus

    @TelegraphNews: David Cameron admits he could be powerless to deliver on his promise to reduce net migration http://t.co/AlerVYtlOX

    How on earth this pledge ever saw the light of day is another of the great mysteries surrounding this amateur politician, but it's a real problem for the Tories who love getting their supporters excited on this issue.
    Which of course means they vote UKIP

    I think you're not properly thinking this through Tim.
    If he fails to meet the target, nonetheless he can make progress in reducing immigration. He has acknowledged that unregulated immigration is a problem, and taken good concrete measures such as closing the immigration-dodge-colleges above kebab shops.
    What are Labour going to do? Advocate looser immigration controls?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brave Sir Ed - he ran away!

    A 5 year delay to union funding reforms ?

    But but tim told us he would deal witb it decisively !?

    And using the cover of the autumn statement -naughty. ..
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited December 2013
    Labour lead still at 8% on who is "most to blame for the current spending cuts". Those numbers haven't changed much at all since the beginning of 2012.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t07lmkhc73/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-021213.pdf

    The election in 2015 will be too soon for Labour to have recovered from their legacy, not just on the economy but on welfare, immigration, housing, education
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TGOHF said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brave Sir Ed - he ran away!

    A 5 year delay to union funding reforms ?

    But but tim told us he would deal witb it decisively !?

    And using the cover of the autumn statement -naughty. ..
    Caesar Ed

    Weeny, Weedy, Weaky

    Weekly.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    I canvassed a bloke the other day who was quite friendly but declined to join my email list since "I hear about any news through Twitter". Wish I'd read this article first, to avoid total bemusement. Unless you follow people interested in politics, you'll get zero political info from Twitter, and if you do follow them, do you really only want tweets? I guess the answer is yes, which is one reason why the polls are so stable.

    By the way, thanks to AndyJS for the energy supply website http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . I have constituents who'll be very interested (not the Twitter guy, maybe) and will pass it on.

    YouGov secondaries uneventuful today, but SNP doing well again.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    @Tim
    I take a different view Tim. If you set yourself a target and fail to meet it, that doesn't necessarily make you a slippery liar, if you set the target in good faith.
    Not everyone takes quite the same rosy view as you of all immigration.

    The NHS reforms look to be braodly going reasonably well, I would say.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AveryLP said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brave Sir Ed - he ran away!

    A 5 year delay to union funding reforms ?

    But but tim told us he would deal witb it decisively !?

    And using the cover of the autumn statement -naughty. ..
    Caesar Ed

    Weeny, Weedy, Weaky

    Weekly.

    So the spring conference will be canned or turned into a beatification of St Len ?
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited December 2013
    NickPalmer said:

    I canvassed a bloke the other day who was quite friendly but declined to join my email list since "I hear about any news through Twitter". Wish I'd read this article first, to avoid total bemusement. Unless you follow people interested in politics, you'll get zero political info from Twitter, and if you do follow them, do you really only want tweets? I guess the answer is yes, which is one reason why the polls are so stable.

    By the way, thanks to AndyJS for the energy supply website http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . I have constituents who'll be very interested (not the Twitter guy, maybe) and will pass it on.

    YouGov secondaries uneventuful today, but SNP doing well again.

    Nick, Twitter is a good news feed but it is also good at making dialogue easier between people who never usually get chance to talk to each other, or otherwise would be done in private. And you could communicate in a 21st century way with your former/potential constituents?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    edited December 2013
    NickPalmer said:

    I canvassed a bloke the other day who was quite friendly but declined to join my email list since "I hear about any news through Twitter". Wish I'd read this article first, to avoid total bemusement. Unless you follow people interested in politics, you'll get zero political info from Twitter, and if you do follow them, do you really only want tweets? I guess the answer is yes, which is one reason why the polls are so stable.

    The thing about Twitter is that you're in complete control of who you follow and unfollow, whereas if you give your email address to somebody with an agenda you're potentially going to have to be filtering emails coming at you from various different sources for the rest of your life.

    If there's something I'm vaguely interested in, but don't mind sometimes missing, I'd certainly want it in my Twitter feed, and absolutely nowhere else.

    I guess the strategic thing to do in the doorstep situation would be to try to come up with a pretext to follow that person, which is vaguely flattering to them, and they'll probably follow you back and hopefully follow the links to the newsletters.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    1 hour 11 minutes 11 seconds
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    I am not sure I agree with the premise here.

    For example, if you look at what the public believes about issues such as benefits spending and the number of immigrants, as opposed to the reality, a lot of the perceptions seem to be driven by reporting in the MSM. It remains hugely influential because it sets the agenda.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    edited December 2013
    SouthamObserver said:

    I am not sure I agree with the premise here.

    For example, if you look at what the public believes about issues such as benefits spending and the number of immigrants, as opposed to the reality, a lot of the perceptions seem to be driven by reporting in the MSM. It remains hugely influential because it sets the agenda.

    Right, I guess a lot of the news people are getting through Facebook or Twitter is either directly sourced from, or failing that heavily influenced by, articles in the MSM.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SouthamObserver said:

    I am not sure I agree with the premise here.

    For example, if you look at what the public believes about issues such as benefits spending and the number of immigrants, as opposed to the reality, a lot of the perceptions seem to be driven by reporting in the MSM. It remains hugely influential because it sets the agenda.

    Good spot - if true as tv is the no. one there must be a lot of people watching Sky news or Itv - which I doubt.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TGOHF said:

    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    I'm more surprised some our resident lefties spent so much time denying the inevitable. To have no cash just before a GE isn't a good place for a political party. Despite all the wider membership posturing it's fairly obvious Miliband couldn't afford it . The new politics is the old politics after all.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    I'm always skeptical of claims that the steady decrease in readership/viewership of traditional media really translates to a significant loss of influence. I know it feels logical, but surely as long as the papers and BBC/ITN/Sky set the news agenda and decide what is a big story then all the non-traditional media will just be a different source of their news? The man on the Clapham omnibus (so to speak) will still only hear stories that the papers make a splash about, even if they do originate from Twitter or elsewhere. Facebook news is mostly people posting links to the BBC and the papers etc etc.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    Typical YouGov - Lab on 38, Con 30.... However, I thought I'd take a look at The fearful world of the UKIP voter - it's very different from the Tory voter:

    Net worried: Con / UKIP
    Not have enough money to live comfortably: 0 / +50
    Be victim of burglary/robbery/mugging : -21 / +6
    Suffer directly from public spending cuts: -5 / +47
    Lose out to foreign competition: -3 / +48
    Lose job: +1 / +30
    Lose home: -39 / -5
    Suffer discrimination: -54 / -6
    Suffer ill health: -3 / +31


    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t07lmkhc73/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-021213.pdf
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    The problem for politicos, the chatterati and the sort of people who participate in sites like this is the definition of "news".

    For us, it involves Cameron, Miliband etc, trade, exports, debt, education etc etc.

    For a growing majority of our fellow voters it involves:
    Some illiterate clown admitting he can't tie his shoelaces on "I'm a Nonentity get me into there"
    Some tuneless wonder licking Simon Cowell's arse and getting a multi-million pound music recording deal
    A "well known" celebrity, usually a reject from Eastenders or Coronation St managing not to trip up often enough and winning a Saturday night dance competition.
    People like a 19-year old sports star feeling he has to share his most intimate private experiences with the entire world in order not to worry when he will be the victim of some tabloid headline.

    The electorate are largely totally disinterested in politics and it will be interesting to see how low the turnout falls at the Euros next summer! Just how relevant the polls will be seen to have been will be fascinating.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Alanbrooke said:

    TGOHF said:

    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    I'm more surprised some our resident lefties spent so much time denying the inevitable. To have no cash just before a GE isn't a good place for a political party. Despite all the wider membership posturing it's fairly obvious Miliband couldn't afford it . The new politics is the old politics after all.
    I'm sure ORL's will do anything to avoid talking about this - expect a day on the wonders of immigration and Cameron's physique.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL
    AveryLP said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brave Sir Ed - he ran away!

    A 5 year delay to union funding reforms ?

    But but tim told us he would deal witb it decisively !?

    And using the cover of the autumn statement -naughty. ..
    Caesar Ed

    Weeny, Weedy, Weaky

    Weekly.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TGOHF said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TGOHF said:

    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    I'm more surprised some our resident lefties spent so much time denying the inevitable. To have no cash just before a GE isn't a good place for a political party. Despite all the wider membership posturing it's fairly obvious Miliband couldn't afford it . The new politics is the old politics after all.
    I'm sure ORL's will do anything to avoid talking about this - expect a day on the wonders of immigration and Cameron's physique.
    A large bulgarian porpoise to go please.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    MikeK said:

    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D

    What do you stand for ?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope you had a nice holiday, Mr. K.

    Miss Plato, now you mention it, Vettel's quote after the multi-21 in Malaysia is quite similar in form to Caesar's:
    "I was racing, I was faster, I passed him, I won"
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Oh dear. Collapse of print media is bad news for the Tories.

    How are they going to spread their smears and general mendacity with the truth?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Twitter has become my primary news source. By being selective about the people I follow I have created a constantly updating news feed that is tailored to my interests.

    In sport I follow Burnley FC, and Bedford rugby and the main cycle road racing Tweeting.

    In politics I follow all who Tweet about polling as well as a well honed list of those whose insight and judgement I value. Also the Speccie, Staggers and other well-known political bloggers like Hopi Sen.

    I'm keen on railway travel and follow Man in Seat 61

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    edited December 2013
    OT but not entirely, a good summary of the Essex c-section case, linked by one of the many wonderful and astute people in my Twitter stream, while the legacy media make things up and gullible politicians repeat them to the House of Commons.

    http://pinktape.co.uk/cases/never-let-the-facts-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story-eh/

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,094
    edited December 2013
    MikeK said:

    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D

    UKOIP?

    The carp party?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    BenM said:

    Oh dear. Collapse of print media is bad news for the Tories.

    How are they going to spread their smears and general mendacity with the truth?

    Dude, did you read the McBride book?!???!

    I fear the Tories are not in the same league when it comes to organised mendacity.

    A good read by the way.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Smithson, I've found Twitter to generally be reliable when it comes to F1 driver market rumours. It was also, by sheer luck, last year via Twitter that I learnt of Hamilton's penalty in the Spanish GP qualifying, enabling me to back the cars starting 1st and 2nd (Maldonado and Alonso) at 5/1 each to lead the first lap.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    30 minutes
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    In unrelated news, Kim Jong-Un's uncle has been 'dismissed'. Not sure if that's a euphemism for brutally executed or not:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25197281

    And Wade, who might've replaced lacklustre showboater Ashton, is out of the Six Nations. Damned shame, we could use better wingers:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/25184763

    I didn't realise England's injury list was so long. Hopefully that'll help Wales to the Triple Crown.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Easterross said:

    The problem for politicos, the chatterati and the sort of people who participate in sites like this is the definition of "news".

    For us, it involves Cameron, Miliband etc, trade, exports, debt, education etc etc.

    For a growing majority of our fellow voters it involves:
    Some illiterate clown admitting he can't tie his shoelaces on "I'm a Nonentity get me into there"
    Some tuneless wonder licking Simon Cowell's arse and getting a multi-million pound music recording deal
    A "well known" celebrity, usually a reject from Eastenders or Coronation St managing not to trip up often enough and winning a Saturday night dance competition.
    People like a 19-year old sports star feeling he has to share his most intimate private experiences with the entire world in order not to worry when he will be the victim of some tabloid headline.

    The electorate are largely totally disinterested in politics and it will be interesting to see how low the turnout falls at the Euros next summer! Just how relevant the polls will be seen to have been will be fascinating.

    Indeed.

    Very few PBers seem to possess the self-awareness to understand that their concerns are not usually shared by the vast majority of normal people, otherwise known as "voters".
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Dickson, next you'll be telling me other people don't lie awake at night thinking about differential front end grip.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT but not entirely, a good summary of the Essex c-section case, linked by one of the many wonderful and astute people in my Twitter stream, while the legacy media make things up and gullible politicians repeat them to the House of Commons.

    http://pinktape.co.uk/cases/never-let-the-facts-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story-eh/

    Even taking that into account (and the council's statement should not be taken at face value), there is still lots wrong with this case.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Apropos of nobody and most certainly not anyone of import from this site in the Bedfordshire region but .... it appears that George III's miniature wig powder bellows are up for sale.

    Hhmmm ....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, next you'll be telling me other people don't lie awake at night thinking about differential front end grip.

    Surely it's a sexual technique that hopefully most will be wide awake for !!

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Alanbrooke said:

    MikeK said:

    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D

    What do you stand for ?
    Wow, a miss-spelling! Won't be the last i fear.

    We stand for getting rid of the Lab/Lib/Con governing disaster and replacing them with something much better. UKIP,UKIP,UKIP!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. W, your mind is filthy!

    It's quite obviously a reference to the varying levels of downforce (and therefore grip) that result from one F1 car following another, partially in its slipstream.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Alanbrooke said:

    TGOHF said:

    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    I'm more surprised some our resident lefties spent so much time denying the inevitable. To have no cash just before a GE isn't a good place for a political party. Despite all the wider membership posturing it's fairly obvious Miliband couldn't afford it . The new politics is the old politics after all.
    Obvious from the start...apart for some people..
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    MikeK said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MikeK said:

    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D

    What do you stand for ?
    Wow, a miss-spelling! Won't be the last i fear.

    We stand for getting rid of the Lab/Lib/Con governing disaster and replacing them with something much better. UKIP,UKIP,UKIP!
    That reads more like a football-fan rant, or a religion, than a political ethos.

    "We want power!"
    "When do we want it?"
    "Now!"
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    MikeK said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MikeK said:

    Hi all. back again after a week in the sun.

    UKOIP needs feet on the ground, so all join in and JOIN! :D

    What do you stand for ?
    Wow, a miss-spelling! Won't be the last i fear.

    We stand for getting rid of the Lab/Lib/Con governing disaster and replacing them with something much better. UKIP,UKIP,UKIP!
    I wasn't actually referring to the typo - see divvie for that.

    But if you're for replacing the current system, what are you replacing it with ?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, your mind is filthy!

    It's quite obviously a reference to the varying levels of downforce (and therefore grip) that result from one F1 car following another, partially in its slipstream.

    Yes Mr D we believe you , really
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Edmund

    A must read story Edmund. Not much wiser other than confirmation that Booker should be put up against a wall and shot and Hemming should be sectioned and certainly is not fit to represent anyone let alone a constituency of 000's
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slackbladder said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TGOHF said:

    Slippery when wet..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517250/Ed-backpedals-union-cash-vow-Miliband-accused-backsliding-pledge-wean-Labour-reliance-funding.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    I'm more surprised some our resident lefties spent so much time denying the inevitable. To have no cash just before a GE isn't a good place for a political party. Despite all the wider membership posturing it's fairly obvious Miliband couldn't afford it . The new politics is the old politics after all.
    Obvious from the start...apart for some people..
    http://order-order.com/2013/12/03/ed-gives-in-to-unite/


    Always wrong..
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, your mind is filthy!

    It's quite obviously a reference to the varying levels of downforce (and therefore grip) that result from one F1 car following another, partially in its slipstream.

    Sounds distinctly dodgy to me and probably more likely to have appeared in reports from the late lamented NotW sex scandals involving High Court judges, rural vicars, political bloggers and premiership footballers.

    F1 indeed ... Tsk ....

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. G, I like F1 and I cannot lie.

    On that note, there's a good basic rundown of the 2014 regulations here:
    http://thewptformula.wordpress.com/2013/11/30/analysis-2014-general-summary/
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Roger said:

    @Edmund

    A must read story Edmund. Not much wiser other than confirmation that Booker should be put up against a wall and shot and Hemming should be sectioned and certainly is not fit to represent anyone let alone a constituency of 000's

    Going for the moderator heart attack Roger ?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    New ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    11 minutes 11 seconds
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    tim said:

    @JosiasJessop

    The usual suspects got taken in on here by this too

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8485742/Vicky-Haigh-flees-the-babysnatchers.html


    "Daughter of racehorse trainer at centre of custody battle was coached to claim her father had sexually abused her"


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028908/Vicky-Haigh-coached-daughter-claim-father-paedophile-custody-battle.html#ixzz2mOr11hNL
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Every Sunday they used to rant about it after Bookers column appeared

    Right. So are you claiming that everything in the Italian woman's case was right and properly done? Are you saying we should just ignore concerns and not get to the truth of what happened, whatever that truth may be?

    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In other words, do you want them to continue operating as they are?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    @JosiasJessop

    The usual suspects got taken in on here by this too

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8485742/Vicky-Haigh-flees-the-babysnatchers.html


    "Daughter of racehorse trainer at centre of custody battle was coached to claim her father had sexually abused her"


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028908/Vicky-Haigh-coached-daughter-claim-father-paedophile-custody-battle.html#ixzz2mOr11hNL
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Every Sunday they used to rant about it after Bookers column appeared

    Right. So are you claiming that everything in the Italian woman's case was right and properly done? Are you saying we should just ignore concerns and not get to the truth of what happened, whatever that truth may be?

    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In other words, do you want them to continue operating as they are?
    I'm saying you know sod all.
    That is all.
    That answer to the questions rather seems to indicate that you are the one who knows sod-all.

    As you are more intelligent than that, I will ask it again:
    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Alanbrooke

    "Going for the moderator heart attack Roger ?"

    Truth is all you need truth is all you need truth is all you need..............
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    Millsy said:



    Nick, Twitter is a good news feed but it is also good at making dialogue easier between people who never usually get chance to talk to each other, or otherwise would be done in private. And you could communicate in a 21st century way with your former/potential constituents?

    Yes, I do - it's got its place, just boggle at people who ONLY learn about the world from Twitter.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    @JosiasJessop

    The usual suspects got taken in on here by this too

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8485742/Vicky-Haigh-flees-the-babysnatchers.html


    "Daughter of racehorse trainer at centre of custody battle was coached to claim her father had sexually abused her"


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028908/Vicky-Haigh-coached-daughter-claim-father-paedophile-custody-battle.html#ixzz2mOr11hNL
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Every Sunday they used to rant about it after Bookers column appeared

    Right. So are you claiming that everything in the Italian woman's case was right and properly done? Are you saying we should just ignore concerns and not get to the truth of what happened, whatever that truth may be?

    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In other words, do you want them to continue operating as they are?
    I'm saying you know sod all.
    That is all.
    That answer to the questions rather seems to indicate that you are the one who knows sod-all.

    As you are more intelligent than that, I will ask it again:
    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In this case, no idea, we don't have the facts.
    in the Vicky Haigh case, yes they did and Booker/Hemming discredited themselves totally on the subject, you can run the same arguments people like you ran in the Haigh case from now till kingdom come but given that you aren't in possession of the facts it'll get tedious.

    People like me?

    You are an odious fool.

    So tell me; are you in possession of the facts? Do you know what went on? No?
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So Ed has backed off from Unite who have kicked his butt...no surprise there then..
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    @JosiasJessop

    The usual suspects got taken in on here by this too

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8485742/Vicky-Haigh-flees-the-babysnatchers.html


    "Daughter of racehorse trainer at centre of custody battle was coached to claim her father had sexually abused her"


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028908/Vicky-Haigh-coached-daughter-claim-father-paedophile-custody-battle.html#ixzz2mOr11hNL
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Every Sunday they used to rant about it after Bookers column appeared

    Right. So are you claiming that everything in the Italian woman's case was right and properly done? Are you saying we should just ignore concerns and not get to the truth of what happened, whatever that truth may be?

    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In other words, do you want them to continue operating as they are?
    I'm saying you know sod all.
    That is all.
    That answer to the questions rather seems to indicate that you are the one who knows sod-all.

    As you are more intelligent than that, I will ask it again:
    Do you think the way the family courts operate are in the interest of the public and the people affected?

    In this case, no idea, we don't have the facts.
    in the Vicky Haigh case, yes they did and Booker/Hemming discredited themselves totally on the subject, you can run the same arguments people like you ran in the Haigh case from now till kingdom come but given that you aren't in possession of the facts it'll get tedious.

    People like me?

    You are an odious fool.

    So tell me; are you in possession of the facts? Do you know what went on? No?
    Rather amusing that tim is attacking people 'not in possession of the facts'

    Never stopped him in the past has it??
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    For those who like Jack's ARSE I recommend:

    Paddy Power
    Weaver Vale Con 5/1
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Ed cries at Copenhagen, gets his butt whupped by Unite and was dragged into his marriage by the force of public opinion... what a tower of strength... Crosby must be doing a Pork .. ROTFLHAO
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Out of interest, roughly what vote shares does this suggest? Because I'm bemused by a situation where UKIP have enough for two seats and the Tories have enough for 300-odd.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    richardDodd said:

    Ed cries at Copenhagen, gets his butt whupped by Unite and was dragged into his marriage by the force of public opinion... what a tower of strength... Crosby must be doing a Pork .. ROTFLHAO

    Suwwender !

    Will be most amusing to see when this spring conference is canned/downgraded/completely forgotten about.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    What's the changes since the last view ?

    If accurate would suggest very few seats changing hands - mostly LD>Lab.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    tim said:

    Quincel said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Out of interest, roughly what vote shares does this suggest? Because I'm bemused by a situation where UKIP have enough for two seats and the Tories have enough for 300-odd.

    At least he's dropped the 5 UKIP seats from when that rather obvious dilemma was pointed out to him.
    It seems to involve a massive personal vote freakishly appearing in a couple of seats but all the Kippers returning to the Tories in the marginals.
    Maybe he just thinks that UKIP will focus solely on a few seats, allowing them to win a couple off a much lower vote share than we think?

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Excellent.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope you had a nice holiday, Mr. K.

    Miss Plato, now you mention it, Vettel's quote after the multi-21 in Malaysia is quite similar in form to Caesar's:
    "I was racing, I was faster, I passed him, I won"

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Roger said:

    @Edmund

    A must read story Edmund. Not much wiser other than confirmation that Booker should be put up against a wall and shot and Hemming should be sectioned and certainly is not fit to represent anyone let alone a constituency of 000's

    Does not hide the fact that there is something extremely dodgy behind the whole thing , why the secrecy and why was the baby not sent back to Italy and handled via their judicial system.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato, are you thinking about attending the Wealden open primary on Thursday? Sometimes a surprisingly small number of people turn up for these, so those that do have an unexpectedly big influence on the outcome.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd say I am better and more widely informed as a result of Twitter links than I've ever been - subjects that wouldn't cross my desk otherwise are front and centre, I've seen loads of footage that I'd miss otherwise and conversations overheard that I found really interesting.

    Those that diss Twitter seem to fail to understand what it is and what it does. Personalised news and views, but with a totally random element where those who I like have other opinions and interests that they recommend on as a RT. It started off as *I'm eating breakfast* but that was years ago = now its a huge broadcast/interactive medium that short-circuits how many businesses or commentators used to operate.
    SeanT said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Millsy said:



    Nick, Twitter is a good news feed but it is also good at making dialogue easier between people who never usually get chance to talk to each other, or otherwise would be done in private. And you could communicate in a 21st century way with your former/potential constituents?

    Yes, I do - it's got its place, just boggle at people who ONLY learn about the world from Twitter.
    I'm not sure you understand Twitter. People don't just read tweets, they then follow the links within those tweets: so they gets news tailored to their own desires and interests. Apps and sites like Flipboard and the amazing paper.li can now use Twitter timelines to generate "personal newspapers and magazines" - the ultimate source of the material is STILL traditional media, but it is shaped by Twitter - YOUR Twitter stream.

    So it's entirely possible to get all the news you need "from Twitter", and be exceedingly well informed.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AndyJS said:

    Plato, are you thinking about attending the Wealden open primary on Thursday? Sometimes a surprisingly small number of people turn up for these, so those that do have an unexpectedly big influence on the outcome.

    I'd love to but can't - a real pity, I wish it was being streamed for those of us without transport to get there.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If anyone's interested in following me on Twitter, my address is ANDYJSAJS. About 90% of my tweets are to do with election statistics, selections, target lists, etc.

    www.twitter.com/andyjsajs
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    Excellent.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope you had a nice holiday, Mr. K.

    Miss Plato, now you mention it, Vettel's quote after the multi-21 in Malaysia is quite similar in form to Caesar's:
    "I was racing, I was faster, I passed him, I won"

    Thanks for your kind remarks Mr dancer

    It'a horrible to be without wheels, Plato.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2013
    Chris Williamson ‏@WilliamsonChris 5m

    UK #construction industry booms as house building growth hits 10-year high #PMI.

    Civil engineering and commercial #construction are also surging alongside housing upturn

    http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/dec/UK_Construction_13_12_03.pdf

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    CNN.com is still the biggest source of online news globally. Not sure it fits in any of the categories above.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Quincel said:

    tim said:

    Quincel said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Out of interest, roughly what vote shares does this suggest? Because I'm bemused by a situation where UKIP have enough for two seats and the Tories have enough for 300-odd.

    At least he's dropped the 5 UKIP seats from when that rather obvious dilemma was pointed out to him.
    It seems to involve a massive personal vote freakishly appearing in a couple of seats but all the Kippers returning to the Tories in the marginals.
    Maybe he just thinks that UKIP will focus solely on a few seats, allowing them to win a couple off a much lower vote share than we think?

    If anyone still takes JackW's ARSE seriously, they need to see a head doctor.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    Quincel said:

    tim said:

    Quincel said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Out of interest, roughly what vote shares does this suggest? Because I'm bemused by a situation where UKIP have enough for two seats and the Tories have enough for 300-odd.

    At least he's dropped the 5 UKIP seats from when that rather obvious dilemma was pointed out to him.
    It seems to involve a massive personal vote freakishly appearing in a couple of seats but all the Kippers returning to the Tories in the marginals.
    Maybe he just thinks that UKIP will focus solely on a few seats, allowing them to win a couple off a much lower vote share than we think?

    If anyone still takes JackW's ARSE seriously, they need to see a head doctor.
    How is your 20 Ukip seats prediction taken ?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Looks like the era of the home PC model we all loved at one time or another, is coming to and end.

    The future is mobile and I for one am sad.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25196031
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. K, whilst the trend is for tablet growth and PC decline I don't think it'll ever reach the stage where PCs simply cease to be.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2013
    @Carlotta

    Typical YouGov - Lab on 38, Con 30.... However, I thought I'd take a look at The fearful world of the UKIP voter - it's very different from the Tory voter:

    Net worried: Con / UKIP
    Not have enough money to live comfortably: 0 / +50
    Be victim of burglary/robbery/mugging : -21 / +6
    Suffer directly from public spending cuts: -5 / +47
    Lose out to foreign competition: -3 / +48
    Lose job: +1 / +30
    Lose home: -39 / -5
    Suffer discrimination: -54 / -6
    Suffer ill health: -3 / +31


    Sound like Daily Mail readers to me
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Roger, I wonder if it's a wealth/class issue. That'd tally with the WWC former Labour voters who go for UKIP.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    SeanT said:

    Talking of news gleaned from Twitter:

    electionista ‏@electionista 56m
    #Netherlands - Maurice de Hond poll: eight out of 10 Dutch people want borders closed to Romanians and Bulgarians http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2013/12/most_dutch_wants_borders_close.php …

    It's not just us.

    The Nederlanders had better be careful or the EU commission will be calling them names.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Roger said:

    @Carlotta

    Typical YouGov - Lab on 38, Con 30.... However, I thought I'd take a look at The fearful world of the UKIP voter - it's very different from the Tory voter:

    Net worried: Con / UKIP
    Not have enough money to live comfortably: 0 / +50
    Be victim of burglary/robbery/mugging : -21 / +6
    Suffer directly from public spending cuts: -5 / +47
    Lose out to foreign competition: -3 / +48
    Lose job: +1 / +30
    Lose home: -39 / -5
    Suffer discrimination: -54 / -6
    Suffer ill health: -3 / +31


    Sound like Daily Mail readers to me

    Roger you're the keenest Daily Mail reader on the site, stop being so bashful.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    TGOHF said:

    Chris Williamson ‏@WilliamsonChris 5m

    UK #construction industry booms as house building growth hits 10-year high #PMI.

    Civil engineering and commercial #construction are also surging alongside housing upturn

    http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/dec/UK_Construction_13_12_03.pdf

    but but but certain pb-pundits .......

    "House building lived up to its new-found status as star performer in November with the steepest growth in rates in 10 years"
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    megalomaniacs4umegalomaniacs4u Posts: 324
    MikeSmithson said:


    That's wrong. The 30% online newspaper readers includes many who read the print editions. Each segment was asked separately

    Thats the problem with these surveys/polls - you get asked if you read a national paper, but have no idea if they mean including the online app/website or not until you eventually get asked about the app/website (which may never happen with yougov and a couple of others) which means giving bum information to the first question.

    I get really annoyed with surveys/polls which have forced choice questions that make lie to proceed. They render the whole process pointless when a little thought & explanation would provide a clear clue as to what they want to know.



  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Quincel said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Out of interest, roughly what vote shares does this suggest? Because I'm bemused by a situation where UKIP have enough for two seats and the Tories have enough for 300-odd.
    Clearly vote share is important but we shouldn't get hijacked into the thinking of the Con/Lab numbers as the only game in town. Minor parties have in all post 1970 elections dented the hegemony of the big two regardless of their overall vote share.

    Ukip for example might poll 12% without a seat but also poll 6% and pick up a couple through a high profile local campaign with highly recognised national personalities. The LibDems/Libs are another case in point with hugely fluctuating numbers not based on vote share.

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris Williamson ‏@WilliamsonChris 5m



    UK #construction industry booms as house building growth hits 10-year high #PMI.

    Civil engineering and commercial #construction are also surging alongside housing upturn

    http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/dec/UK_Construction_13_12_03.pdf

    but but but certain pb-pundits .......

    "House building lived up to its new-found status as star performer in November with the steepest growth in rates in 10 years"
    Surging from the lowest figures in history to half of what we need.
    It will not impress static data point "trend deniers" like tim....

  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited December 2013
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :
    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    Jack thanks for the bold clear forecasts. I do wonder if you have over-estimated the LDs and under estimated Labour. Your figures have LD losing a net 18. The LDs already have 7 retirements and we should expect a few more. They face 19 battles with Labour and 4 with non-Conservatives as the challenger. Add in a reasonable expectation of a net loss to the Conservatives of 10 (including retirements) and -18 looks low.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    Difficult to believe now but I was using the internet for 10 years before I posted a comment anywhere: from 1995 to 2005. Maybe something similar is true for a lot of people. It's as if the average person was conditioned to receive information only, not to broadcast it, and it took a big effort to get out of that mindset.
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited December 2013
    PISA results

    UK performance analysed and table comparing it with 64 other countries

    http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/PISA-2012-results-UK.pdf

    Basically UK flatlining whilst Far East is better and still improving
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

    Con 301 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 11 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority

    What's the changes since the last view ?

    If accurate would suggest very few seats changing hands - mostly LD>Lab.
    Con +3 .. Lab -4 .. LibDem +1 .. SNP +1 .. Ukip +1 .. Respect -1 .. Green -1

    All others unchanged.

  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    edited December 2013
    BBC: Shanghai tops global school tests, UK 'stagnates'

    Thanks, Labour.
This discussion has been closed.