I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.
Suggests the market shares these doubts.
Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.
How did it all go wrong for a 77 year old with a heart condition who isn’t even a Democrat?
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered. What is it with failures who have left Scotland and are desperate to try and pretend they are more English than the English. What kind of absolute moron does not know that high bridges close in extreme weather conditions, would you prefer they let motorists get killed. PS Humber Bridge closes to all traffic and pedestrians for second time in history 'This is the only way of safeguarding everyone and ensuring there are no accidents due to the severe weather' PPS Orwell Bridge OPEN after strong winds force closure
Good morning everyone. Totally O/t, but the wind seems to have dropped, at least for a bit, and it’s a rather nice winter morning. On topic, could I be persuaded to go out and vote, even against Trump, for someone who is almost my age? Only if he or she had a running mate who could step into their shoes. I know how I feel, and we saw Mr G, at a similar stage in life, reporting yesterday on cutting down on activities.
The fire of socialism does not burn quite so brightly in Big_G, though.
Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.
Suggests the market shares these doubts.
Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.
How did it all go wrong for a 77 year old with a heart condition who isn’t even a Democrat?
Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.
Suggests the market shares these doubts.
Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.
He could have done without Amy Klobuchar doing so well. Equally, while she has outperformed expectations, she still only came third.
The moderates look all over the shop still.
Bernie Sanders should, however, now be longer than 2.74.
Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.
Suggests the market shares these doubts.
Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.
How did it all go wrong for a 77 year old with a heart condition who isn’t even a Democrat?
Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.
Maybe, and his unconventional strategy is interesting.
Seems mixed for mayor Pete- a good result but now he has Klobuchar to contend with. Not sure why shes taken off now.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered.
That’s the old Severn Bridge - Wales’ answer to the Forth Road Bridge. The Prince of Wales Bridge is still open.
and your point is caller, do you also dispute that high bridges all over sometimes close during adverse weather for safety reasons rather than Harry's lie that it is a thing that happens only in Scotland.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered. What is it with failures who have left Scotland and are desperate to try and pretend they are more English than the English. What kind of absolute moron does not know that high bridges close in extreme weather conditions, would you prefer they let motorists get killed. PS Humber Bridge closes to all traffic and pedestrians for second time in history 'This is the only way of safeguarding everyone and ensuring there are no accidents due to the severe weather' PPS Orwell Bridge OPEN after strong winds force closure
There is a slight (note sarcasm) difference between closing a bridge due to high winds before an accident occurs and keeping a bridge open until 8 accidents have occurred that day and someone decides hmm better close it.
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered. What is it with failures who have left Scotland and are desperate to try and pretend they are more English than the English. What kind of absolute moron does not know that high bridges close in extreme weather conditions, would you prefer they let motorists get killed. PS Humber Bridge closes to all traffic and pedestrians for second time in history 'This is the only way of safeguarding everyone and ensuring there are no accidents due to the severe weather' PPS Orwell Bridge OPEN after strong winds force closure
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered.
That’s the old Severn Bridge - Wales’ answer to the Forth Road Bridge. The Prince of Wales Bridge is still open.
and your point is caller, do you also dispute that high bridges all over sometimes close during adverse weather for safety reasons rather than Harry's lie that it is a thing that happens only in Scotland.
It is surprising and a bit concerning that a bridge as modern as this has closed for these conditions. They’re bad, but not *that* bad. The Second Severn Crossing was closed for ice on the cables a couple of years ago, but at that time there was eight inches of snow on the ground. It’s also not as though wet, icy and windy weather in Scotland is exactly surprising.
The major concern would appear to be that the very design of the bridge, with the cables in the centre rather than at the side, makes this likely to be a fairly regular occurrence unless remedial measures are put in place.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered.
That’s the old Severn Bridge - Wales’ answer to the Forth Road Bridge. The Prince of Wales Bridge is still open.
and your point is caller, do you also dispute that high bridges all over sometimes close during adverse weather for safety reasons rather than Harry's lie that it is a thing that happens only in Scotland.
It’s not closed due to high winds malc - it’s due to falling ice.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered.
That’s the old Severn Bridge - Wales’ answer to the Forth Road Bridge. The Prince of Wales Bridge is still open.
and your point is caller, do you also dispute that high bridges all over sometimes close during adverse weather for safety reasons rather than Harry's lie that it is a thing that happens only in Scotland.
It is surprising and a bit concerning that a bridge as modern as this has closed for these conditions. They’re bad, but not *that* bad. The Second Severn Crossing was closed for ice on the cables a couple of years ago, but at that time there was eight inches of snow on the ground. It’s also not as though wet, icy and windy weather in Scotland is exactly surprising.
The major concern would appear to be that the very design of the bridge, with the cables in the centre rather than at the side, makes this likely to be a fairly regular occurrence unless remedial measures are put in place.
Have a good morning.
This is a storm that we're going through at the minute, not just a bit of winter chills. Closing bridges seems sane to me, I don't see the big deal.
Starting to get excited about this market. Either Klobuchar or Buttigieg would be my biggest ever wins...
What are your liabilities, or are you all green?
Bloomberg and Clinton (and Trump for the Presidency). I went a little early on laying Bloomberg, should have realized that if there's a crazy price now, there'll probably also be a crazy or crazier price on him later.
There is a slight (note sarcasm) difference between closing a bridge due to high winds before an accident occurs and keeping a bridge open until 8 accidents have occurred that day and someone decides hmm better close it.
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
Another halfwit talking through their arse. Bridge is run by AMEY. England good Scotland Bad, just another jingoistic unionist fcukwit.
I suppose you think Highways England negligent for not closing road and causing below:
A 58-year-old man has died after a tree fell on his car in Hampshire during Storm Ciara on Sunday.
Police said the man, from Micheldever, was driving on the A33 when the accident happened just before 16:00 GMT. He died at the scene.
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered.
That’s the old Severn Bridge - Wales’ answer to the Forth Road Bridge. The Prince of Wales Bridge is still open.
and your point is caller, do you also dispute that high bridges all over sometimes close during adverse weather for safety reasons rather than Harry's lie that it is a thing that happens only in Scotland.
It’s not closed due to high winds malc - it’s due to falling ice.
I see you cannot read either Harry, I said "adverse weather". Any knuckle dragger would know that ice can form on high structures in adverse weather conditions. Only in your tiny brain was it high winds
Harry , you forgot to show us the Severn Road bridge closed, you unionists are just a little bit blinkered. What is it with failures who have left Scotland and are desperate to try and pretend they are more English than the English. What kind of absolute moron does not know that high bridges close in extreme weather conditions, would you prefer they let motorists get killed. PS Humber Bridge closes to all traffic and pedestrians for second time in history 'This is the only way of safeguarding everyone and ensuring there are no accidents due to the severe weather' PPS Orwell Bridge OPEN after strong winds force closure
Good morning everyone. Totally O/t, but the wind seems to have dropped, at least for a bit, and it’s a rather nice winter morning. On topic, could I be persuaded to go out and vote, even against Trump, for someone who is almost my age? Only if he or she had a running mate who could step into their shoes. I know how I feel, and we saw Mr G, at a similar stage in life, reporting yesterday on cutting down on activities.
The fire of socialism does not burn quite so brightly in Big_G, though.
Good morning everyone. Totally O/t, but the wind seems to have dropped, at least for a bit, and it’s a rather nice winter morning. On topic, could I be persuaded to go out and vote, even against Trump, for someone who is almost my age? Only if he or she had a running mate who could step into their shoes. I know how I feel, and we saw Mr G, at a similar stage in life, reporting yesterday on cutting down on activities.
The fire of socialism does not burn quite so brightly in Big_G, though.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
African American turnout was down in 2016 so there’s no guarantee they’d turn out just to stop Trump,
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
Given the margins Trump won them by, any dip in any Democrat voting bloc is potentially dangerous. If I recall correctly African American turnout was down in all the key swing states in 2016 compared to 2012. The key demographic, though, is probably going to be independents, as they generally do vote and are less likely to be affected by voter suppression efforts.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
African American turnout was down in 2016 so there’s no guarantee they’d turn out just to stop Trump,
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Yes. It's not impossible that Biden manages to win in South Carolina. Then a surge for Klobuchar in Nevada and you might have four different winners for the first four states - at which point Bloomberg and his tide of cash enters the race.
How many different winners might there be on Super Tuesday? How many candidates will make it to the convention?
This could be a historically messy nomination and I don't think that will help the Democrats in the general.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
Convincing. The lesson from 2017 and 2019 UK is that voters do *not* say "a plague on both your houses," they vote for the perceived lesser of two evils. If it's Theresa May vs an anti semite they pretend not to notice the anti semitism, and vote Corbyn; Boris vs an anti-semite and they hated anti-semitism all along. (And the claim the anti semitism wasnt known about in 2017 is nonsense; Chakrabarti had reported in 2016, and she would never have been commissioned in the first place if the problem were not widely known.)
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
There is one theory that there are basically no swing voters in America. There is only differential turnout/energising the base.
So depressed African American turnout is devastating for the Dems even in states where they are below national average pop count as there is no other demographic group that the Dems 'win' in their place.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
African American turnout was down in 2016 so there’s no guarantee they’d turn out just to stop Trump,
Independents are key. As is there not being a third party candidate.
They seem set to make the same mistake as the British Labour Party recently did and elect someone who is only seen as electable by those who are gazing at their navels.
Starting to get excited about this market. Either Klobuchar or Buttigieg would be my biggest ever wins...
What are your liabilities, or are you all green?
Bloomberg and Clinton (and Trump for the Presidency). I went a little early on laying Bloomberg, should have realized that if there's a crazy price now, there'll probably also be a crazy or crazier price on him later.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
African American turnout was down in 2016 so there’s no guarantee they’d turn out just to stop Trump,
2016 was coming down from a record high because Obama was the prior candidate. None of the candidates could hope to match Obama's success there. 2016 AA turnout was in line with historical turnout and probably about what will turnout this year.
There is a slight (note sarcasm) difference between closing a bridge due to high winds before an accident occurs and keeping a bridge open until 8 accidents have occurred that day and someone decides hmm better close it.
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
A 58-year-old man has died after a tree fell on his car in Hampshire during Storm Ciara on Sunday.
Police said the man, from Micheldever, was driving on the A33 when the accident happened just before 16:00 GMT. He died at the scene.
There is a slight (note sarcasm) difference between closing a bridge due to high winds before an accident occurs and keeping a bridge open until 8 accidents have occurred that day and someone decides hmm better close it.
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
Another halfwit talking through their arse. Bridge is run by AMEY. England good Scotland Bad, just another jingoistic unionist fcukwit.
I suppose you think Highways England negligent for not closing road and causing below:
A 58-year-old man has died after a tree fell on his car in Hampshire during Storm Ciara on Sunday.
Police said the man, from Micheldever, was driving on the A33 when the accident happened just before 16:00 GMT. He died at the scene.
Nationalist Neanderthal accuses another person of jingoism and being a halfwit. Oh the irony.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
There is one theory that there are basically no swing voters in America. There is only differential turnout/energising the base.
So depressed African American turnout is devastating for the Dems even in states where they are below national average pop count as there is no other demographic group that the Dems 'win' in their place.
With respect though I think that theory is bollocks. It conveniently appeals to extremists to appeal to their own extremes rather than the swing but it doesn't explain key swing states results like Wisconsin etc last time or prior results.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
Given the margins Trump won them by, any dip in any Democrat voting bloc is potentially dangerous. If I recall correctly African American turnout was down in all the key swing states in 2016 compared to 2012. The key demographic, though, is probably going to be independents, as they generally do vote and are less likely to be affected by voter suppression efforts.
African turnout in 2016 shouldn't be compared to 2012, it should be compared to 2004 and earlier.
Obama got an unnaturally large boost in turnout that no other candidate has ever received. A myth has set in that AA turnout fell in 2016 but it was really just a reversion to mean.
2012 was the only election EVER where African American turnout was above white turnout, that had never happened and it is unrealistic to think that will happen again with any of these candidates at all.
Objectively, it is ridiculous that the Democrats are even considering nominating a bloke who will be 80 next year to be their candidate for president.
Yes and also he's far too left-wing to win over swing voters in places like Florida and Pennsylvania.
Most Americans aren't going to bother seeing any difference between a Socialist and a Commie.
Bernie will be set up as the biggest threat posed to the USA by Communism since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Already news outlets are reporting Sanders would be the most left-wing Democratic nominee since they picked George McGovern to take on President Nixon in 1972
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
When the alternative is Donald Trump? Yes, I think so.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
There is one theory that there are basically no swing voters in America. There is only differential turnout/energising the base.
So depressed African American turnout is devastating for the Dems even in states where they are below national average pop count as there is no other demographic group that the Dems 'win' in their place.
With respect though I think that theory is bollocks. It conveniently appeals to extremists to appeal to their own extremes rather than the swing but it doesn't explain key swing states results like Wisconsin etc last time or prior results.
It does explain Wisconsin though. Trump was unappealing to Wisconsin Republicans and got less votes than Romney. Clinton utterly repulsed Wisconsin Democrats and saw the Dem voter crater into the floor giving the state to Trump.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
African American turnout was down in 2016 so there’s no guarantee they’d turn out just to stop Trump,
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
Yet the post of Archbishop of York, the 2nd most powerful post in the church, is held by a black man
Welby’s lost it. What on earth is he hoping to achieve by spouting such bollocks?
He’s fast turning into his right-on predecessor, the bearded wonder.
If he thinks the church is racist - it should look at it's congregations. I find the more traditional (i.e. catholic) the church is the more welcoming they really are
Most churches seem to be people's attempt to whitewash their actual (racist and homophobic) beliefs..
There is a slight (note sarcasm) difference between closing a bridge due to high winds before an accident occurs and keeping a bridge open until 8 accidents have occurred that day and someone decides hmm better close it.
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
Another halfwit talking through their arse. Bridge is run by AMEY. England good Scotland Bad, just another jingoistic unionist fcukwit.
I suppose you think Highways England negligent for not closing road and causing below:
A 58-year-old man has died after a tree fell on his car in Hampshire during Storm Ciara on Sunday.
Police said the man, from Micheldever, was driving on the A33 when the accident happened just before 16:00 GMT. He died at the scene.
Nationalist Neanderthal accuses another person of jingoism and being a halfwit. Oh the irony.
Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.
Suggests the market shares these doubts.
Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.
How did it all go wrong for a 77 year old with a heart condition who isn’t even a Democrat?
It’s almost as if some people are attracted to parasitic entryists.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
I can't help but believe that on the "eye of a needle" principle, the views and concerns of The Most Reverend Justin Welby would be taken somewhat more seriously were he to come clean about his own finances. A statement of his and his wife's income from all sources over say the last three years, coupled with an approximation of his current total wealth, including the value any significant lifetime gifts he has made to his immediate family. If this is likely to prove a somewhat lengthy and complex exercise to undertake, an estimate of his wealth to say the nearest couple of £million should suffice for now.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
Yet the post of Archbishop of York, the 2nd most powerful post in the church, is held by a black man
Welby’s lost it. What on earth is he hoping to achieve by spouting such bollocks?
He’s fast turning into his right-on predecessor, the bearded wonder.
If he thinks the church is racist - it should look at it's congregations. I find the more traditional (i.e. catholic) the church is the more welcoming they really are
Most churches seem to be people's attempt to whitewash their actual (racist and homophobic) beliefs..
Despite the activities of many individual Christians over the centuries, places of worship are amongst the most segregated parts of our lives. True of non-Christian religions too. I don't think this intentional, indeed my own church actively reaches out to other communities.
Last year I was at a Nonconformist Christian conference centre at Swannick, at the same time as 3 other Christian organisations. Everyone was very friendly, but there was little mixing between the organisations. One was a very Charismatic church womens group from Southern Africa.
I chatted to some of them on the way to one of my sessions, and they invited me to their worship, but sadly I had to decline as I was speaking at our own session. It certainly looked fun, though not quite my usual cup of tea!
I think Buttigieg’s biggest issue is his numbers with voters of colour as well as millennials. For all the issues of Sanders age, younger American voters certainly don’t seem keen on Buttigieg and I get why. I wonder whether those voters as well as voters of colour would turn out for Buttigieg if he were the nominee in November.
Because he’s a sellout corporate shill and McKinsey suit?
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said. The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism. Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
Comments
Oops, wrong year
He didn’t impress last night, although he won the plurality, but his odds haven’t moved from the 2.7 mark.
(Don't believe, I think she's done. She needed to be top 3)
Boo to Bernie!
What kind of absolute moron does not know that high bridges close in extreme weather conditions, would you prefer they let motorists get killed.
PS
Humber Bridge closes to all traffic and pedestrians for second time in history
'This is the only way of safeguarding everyone and ensuring there are no accidents due to the severe weather'
PPS
Orwell Bridge OPEN after strong winds force closure
The moderates look all over the shop still.
Bernie Sanders should, however, now be longer than 2.74.
Seems mixed for mayor Pete- a good result but now he has Klobuchar to contend with. Not sure why shes taken off now.
Yep, Joe Bi-dent......
One shows planning, one shows a complete lack of foresight, planning or even design.
And the funniest bit is that the SNP have centralised so much that it's always possible to put a photo of Sturgeon on the disaster as it probably requires her approval for the bridge to be closed. While the humber bridge is likely to be a highways officers deciding we can't take the risk..
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/1227489780616900608?s=21
Why wouldn’t they? He’d be the Democratic nominee and the way to stop Trump.
I also don’t get the colour thing. First, what % of Democratic primary voters are non-white excluding Hispanics? 10% or 20%, depending on state? So, if they really don’t like him, and say he gets only 15% of their support, rather than 40-50% for other candidates, then at worst it’d make about a 7% differential on his primary votes total in the most diverse states, and probably below 3% in the rest.
In other words, I’m struggling to see how it’s a dealbreaker, unless it’s very close.
If Buttigieg is riding a surge, then he’ll be fine regardless. If not, and it’s a split field, then that’ll be the reason he loses. Not the ethnicity of the voters.
Plus I'd be curious to know if any of the swing states that the Democrat nominee needs to win off Trump is disproportionately dominated by African Americans? Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have below national average (Wisconsin close to half the national average) African American voters so that's not necessarily the key demographic to win.
The major concern would appear to be that the very design of the bridge, with the cables in the centre rather than at the side, makes this likely to be a fairly regular occurrence unless remedial measures are put in place.
Have a good morning.
He has two extensive subterranean complexes for them in the backyard of his main homes in two different states.
He’s Joe Bi-den, and he got advice on them from Elizabeth Warren.
(Editor: stop.)
I went a little early on laying Bloomberg, should have realized that if there's a crazy price now, there'll probably also be a crazy or crazier price on him later.
I suppose you think Highways England negligent for not closing road and causing below:
A 58-year-old man has died after a tree fell on his car in Hampshire during Storm Ciara on Sunday.
Police said the man, from Micheldever, was driving on the A33 when the accident happened just before 16:00 GMT. He died at the scene.
And Joe needs to win S.C big to stay in the race now.
Good morning to you, Big_G.
I didn’t say that Buttigieg would have issues because of voters ethnicity, but that those are demographics he doesn’t poll well with. It was a notable discussion point in 2016 that one of Sanders’ biggest issues was his lack of AA support compared to Hilary. This piece explains the issue well in terms of the importance of winning over these voters: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-really-behind-pete-buttigiegs-lack-of-support-among-black-voters/amp/
How many different winners might there be on Super Tuesday? How many candidates will make it to the convention?
This could be a historically messy nomination and I don't think that will help the Democrats in the general.
So depressed African American turnout is devastating for the Dems even in states where they are below national average pop count as there is no other demographic group that the Dems 'win' in their place.
At least Yang was a slam dunk earner.
"The Church of England is "still deeply institutionally racist", the Archbishop of Canterbury has said.
The Most Reverend Justin Welby said at a meeting of the Church's ruling body, the General Synod, that he was "ashamed" of its history of racism.
Mr Welby's words came as Synod members backed a motion to apologise for racism in the Church of England since the arrival of the Windrush generation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51469566
Bernie will be set up as the biggest threat posed to the USA by Communism since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Obama got an unnaturally large boost in turnout that no other candidate has ever received. A myth has set in that AA turnout fell in 2016 but it was really just a reversion to mean.
2012 was the only election EVER where African American turnout was above white turnout, that had never happened and it is unrealistic to think that will happen again with any of these candidates at all.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/
My partner used to work for him in Canterbury, he is the most conservative Archbishop since Carey (albeit that does not mean much)
He’s fast turning into his right-on predecessor, the bearded wonder.
I think I've been exposed to Corvid 19.
Most churches seem to be people's attempt to whitewash their actual (racist and homophobic) beliefs..
Also when discussing the notion that Trump surged to victory as opposed to Clinton collapsing to a loss.
NEW THREAD
Last year I was at a Nonconformist Christian conference centre at Swannick, at the same time as 3 other Christian organisations. Everyone was very friendly, but there was little mixing between the organisations. One was a very Charismatic church womens group from Southern Africa.
I chatted to some of them on the way to one of my sessions, and they invited me to their worship, but sadly I had to decline as I was speaking at our own session. It certainly looked fun, though not quite my usual cup of tea!