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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie heading for New Hampshire victory with Biden in single figures

At this stage none of the networks has been ready to call the New Hampshire primary but it’s looking as though this is going to go with the final polling. Bernie Sanders winning but with nothing like the margin that he had over Hillary Clinton in the same state 4 years ago.

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Chameleon

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

MikeSmithson

Chameleon said:

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

Creepy Joe is just on a vanity trip. The old bugger should sod off.

speedy2

Amy Klobuchar doing her best "My father was a mail man" speech.

Andy_JS

NYT estimates that only about 42% of votes have been counted so far (as opposed to precincts reporting). Sanders' lead is just 3,800 votes at the moment. Maybe Wasserman called it too early.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeednews/live-results-new-hampshire-democratic-primary
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-live-forecast.html?

matthiasfromhamburg

MikeSmithson said:

Chameleon said:

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

Creepy Joe is just on a vanity trip. The old bugger should sod off.

Don't be cruel.
Let the old fool play around a little longer. It'll be bedtime for him soon enough and it's not like he's really taking a lot of votes from anyone, anyway.

DecrepiterJohnL

Combining the header's last three paragraphs, we see Biden dropping, the centrists gaining, and Mike Bloomberg about to split the centrist vote still further for the presumed benefit of Bernie Sanders. That would be ironic.

Andy_JS

A virtual tie between Sanders and Biuttigieg on less than 25% each wouldn't exactly be a great result for the Democrats following on from Iowa.

MikeL

NYT: Sanders 37,000

CNN: Sanders 48,000

So NYT way behind.

MikeSmithson

Biden down to 8%

BigRich

MikeSmithson said:

Biden down to 8%

8.5% by CNN ether way my hart bleeds for him, o wait, no it does not.

Andy_JS

MikeL said:

NYT: Sanders 37,000

CNN: Sanders 48,000

So NYT way behind.

Why are they behind?

speedy2

Well one thing is certain at this moment, the first 4 contests don't look like they will provide any clarity as to who will be the Democratic Nominee.

That's a first for the Democratic Primary since 1992, the Republicans had a similar issue in 2012.

rcs1000

speedy2 said:

Well one thing is certain at this moment, the first 4 contests don't look like they will provide any clarity as to who will be the Democratic Nominee.

That's a first for the Democratic Primary since 1992, the Republicans had a similar issue in 2012.

That's absolutely right.

It's going to be fascinating to see how the polls evolve in the next couple of days

speedy2

Hmm.

Trump may actually win N.Hampshire in November because of the change in voter registration that depresses the Massachusetts Student vote.

rcs1000

speedy2 said:

Hmm.

Trump may actually win N.Hampshire in November because of the change in voter registration that depresses the Massachusetts Student vote.

Trump has a -12 net approval rating there, which is worse than a lot of other marginal states.

speedy2

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Hmm.

Trump may actually win N.Hampshire in November because of the change in voter registration that depresses the Massachusetts Student vote.

Trump has a -12 net approval rating there, which is worse than a lot of other marginal states.

The polling average against Democrats has him on -2.

justin124

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

BigRich

One other thing to reflect on, in 2016 Sanders got 60.14% with 152,193 votes in the NH Primary, 26.1% and 54,914 votes, with 28% to declare, so maybe a bit less than 80K when all the votes are counted.

He has lost a lot more support than just that taken by Warren (9% ish)

BigRich

justin124 said:

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

Not on the CCN feed I am looking at:

BS: 56,695
PB: 52,035

DecrepiterJohnL

Bernie 1.01 on Betfair. Punters think it is all over.

DecrepiterJohnL

BigRich said:

justin124 said:

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

Not on the CCN feed I am looking at:

BS: 56,695
PB: 52,035

It took me a few seconds to work out what PB stands for.

justin124

BigRich said:

justin124 said:

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

Not on the CCN feed I am looking at:

BS: 56,695
PB: 52,035

Buzzfeed has
BS 61,073
PB 56,231

BigRich

DecrepiterJohnL said:

BigRich said:

justin124 said:

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

Not on the CCN feed I am looking at:

BS: 56,695
PB: 52,035

It took me a few seconds to work out what PB stands for.

lol, I don't think,

But we all know its people who are voting that 'Pineapple Best'

BigRich

justin124 said:

BigRich said:

justin124 said:

Sanders now back to a 5000 vote lead.

Not on the CCN feed I am looking at:

BS: 56,695
PB: 52,035

Buzzfeed has
BS 61,073
PB 56,231

Thanks Justin

Tim_B

It Remains to be seen if the audio tapes released today with Bloomberg talking about stop and frisk will have an effect.

speedy2

One thing I've noticed, Sanders is really bad at the media game, he always comes last on TV after everyone has gone to bed.

Tim_B

79% reporting -

Sand 60026
Butt 55944
Klo 45839

DecrepiterJohnL

Bernie backed off the boards. No money left.

BigRich

speedy2 said:

One thing I've noticed, Sanders is really bad at the media game, he always comes last on TV after everyone has gone to bed.

I think, most of his supporters, almost all of his atavists and perhaps all of his full time staff, have mentally bought in to the 'media are all out to get us' narrative and ones you are in that mind set its hard to have a constructive relationships.

BigRich

86% in by CNN,

speedy2

2 hours after PB called it for Sanders:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1227441947540893708

speedy2

Buttigieg's speech reminds me heavily of Neil Kinnock's.

"Not this, but that, not in favour, but against" ect ect.

DecrepiterJohnL

A bad night for Biden but also for Elizabeth Warren; both under 10 per cent and no delegates.

MikeL

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

BigRich

Bill Weld has got over 11,000 and over 9% in the republican primary, good for him, but i think this will be his best result.

speedy2

You can't have a more different speech style than between Buttigieg's and Sanders.

Just listen to their speeches next to each other and the different style is impressive.

speedy2

BigRich said:

Bill Weld has got over 11,000 and over 9% in the republican primary, good for him, but i think this will be his best result.

Compared with Kasich that's down for a Liberal Republican.

rcs1000

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

MikeL

Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.

Suggests the market shares these doubts.

BigRich

speedy2 said:

You can't have a more different speech style than between Buttigieg's and Sanders.

Just listen to their speeches next to each other and the different style is impressive.

Just watched Buttigiegs speech, I like the man, I disagree on plenty of policy, (but probably less than most other Dems)

Seems that some Dems have realized it might be eraser to win the presidency with a candidate who 'like' the country he seeks to govern might be easier.

Gabs3

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

And Yang.

DecrepiterJohnL

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

And Yang.

Yang has withdrawn so we should soon find out where his (small) support goes but my impression is that it will be dissipated.

rcs1000

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

And Yang.

Yang is much harder to pigeon hole, because aside from the basic income, his policies are more Bloomberg than Sanders. But that one policy, universal basic income, is definitely on the left.

I think he probably splits fairly evenly between the left and right tracks

DecrepiterJohnL

rcs1000 said:

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

And Yang.

Yang is much harder to pigeon hole, because aside from the basic income, his policies are more Bloomberg than Sanders. But that one policy, universal basic income, is definitely on the left.

I think he probably splits fairly evenly between the left and right tracks

Actually UBI started life on the right wing, as a negative income tax.

AlastairMeeks

Joe Biden was last matched at 17.5 for the nomination. He was the long term favourite and below 4 until very recently.

rcs1000

Unmentioned on here is the small, but real, possibility that Buttigieg ends up with one more delegate than Sanders from New Hampshire.

You see, the two Congressional districts in New Hampshire each give 12 delegates. But CD2 has more primary Democrat voters in it, perhaps as many as 15% more.

If my Excel calculation is correct, Buttigieg will end up getting one more delegate in CD1 than Sanders, and *may* end up getting the same number in CD2.

TimT

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Sanders 26%

Sanders + Warren 35%

Surely that is nowhere near good enough for Sanders in a state he won by a landslide vs Clinton in 2016.

You need to add Gabbard. But, yes, both New Hampshire and Iowa have had the "Left Lane" of the Democratic nomination getting 40% or less.

That matches polling on whether Democrats prefer moderates or idealists.

And Yang.

Yang is much harder to pigeon hole, because aside from the basic income, his policies are more Bloomberg than Sanders. But that one policy, universal basic income, is definitely on the left.

I think he probably splits fairly evenly between the left and right tracks

Actually UBI started life on the right wing, as a negative income tax.

That was always my understanding too - that this came out of the right.

Pulpstar

No polls from NV recently

AlastairMeeks

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Mysticrose

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51470088

No it doesn't.

Pete gains from this, and has more delegates than Bernie. But it's Mike Bloomberg who does best from this indecisive start to the Democratic nomination.

DecrepiterJohnL

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

No because of the videos which (according to twitter; I've not been bothered to look) suggest Bloomberg takes a stern line on policing: not quite lock up all the Blacks but not far off. But DYOR because supporters of rival candidates will be actively spinning this.

Mysticrose

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

No because of the videos which (according to twitter; I've not been bothered to look) suggest Bloomberg takes a stern line on policing: not quite lock up all the Blacks but not far off. But DYOR because supporters of rival candidates will be actively spinning this.

I think he'll ride that one out. I suspect a lot of African-Americans will silently agree with him and the rest of the U.S. will entirely agree.

(By the way, that's not what he said.)

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Wonderful.

rcs1000

Mysticrose said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51470088

No it doesn't.

Pete gains from this, and has more delegates than Bernie. But it's Mike Bloomberg who does best from this indecisive start to the Democratic nomination.

The BBC thinks it goes 9/9/6 in terms of delegates. With Buttigieg getting 5 in CD1, and 4 in CD2, while Sanders is the other way around.

CD2 though is very close to being 4-4-4. If Klobuchar has a good last spurt, she'll edge up from 3.48 (rounded to 3) to 3.5+ (rounded up to 4). This would result in the delegate split for state being 9/8/7, with Buttigieg being the 9.

DecrepiterJohnL

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

No, I think that with Biden biting the dust, and Bernie winning but wobbling in his best State, that the voters do not want an old man. They want something fresh. Poor for Warren too.

The KLOBUCHARGE is gathering momentum...

MarqueeMark

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

"You've tried the rest, now try....er....another one....."

Casino_Royale

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

Assuming Biden goes then ultimately Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to have to decided between them who takes the moderate mantle forward.

Between them they could get half the vote in remaining states, assuming Bloomberg ends his cockblocking.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

Assuming Biden goes then ultimately Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to have to decided between them who takes the moderate mantle forward.

Between them they could get half the vote in remaining states, assuming Bloomberg ends his cockblocking.

The DNC would be eternally grateful to Buttigieg if he were to make a deal with Klobuchar.

And it would probably much ensure that Bloomberg fell into line too.

Go on Baemy/Buttigieg, make that deal.

DecrepiterJohnL

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

Assuming Biden goes then ultimately Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to have to decided between them who takes the moderate mantle forward.

Between them they could get half the vote in remaining states, assuming Bloomberg ends his cockblocking.

I had a quick look round Mayor Pete's official site earlier on and so far as I can see, well, nothing really. I'm not even 100 per cent sure he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie. Otoh he speaks well, although @speedy2 earlier in this thread thought he detected Kinnockian strains, the issue that sunk Biden back in the 20th Century.

rcs1000

The powerful Culinary Union has just sent a message to it's 60,000 members in Nevada that Sanders is too great a risk because (a) he'll lose to Trump and (b) if he won, he'd take away their healthcare.

Pulpstar

Weinstein, Epstein, Stop n Frisk. Some skeletons starting to emerge from someone's closet..
Well I mean they're out there but stuff needs repeating a gazillion times before anyone notices

DecrepiterJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

"You've tried the rest, now try....er....another one....."

Tories last year; Labour and LibDems this; GOP 2016; Dems now: I cannot think of a recent contest with a single inspiring candidate.

Pulpstar

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

edmundintokyo

rcs1000 said:

Go on Baemy/Buttigieg, make that deal.

If Buttigieg offers Baemy the VP slot she should take it, she can give him 6 months then shiv him with a stapler

TGOHF666

Warren now 70 for the nomination.

edmundintokyo

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

Also think Ed Miliband and the GMB though

TGOHF666

Joe Bye-den

DecrepiterJohnL

TGOHF666 said:

Warren now 70 for the nomination.

The question for Warren, and apologies to the squeamish, is whether to hang on in case Bernie's ticker plays up again. Doubtless some poor staffer is scanning the actuarial tables.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Mysticrose

Pulpstar said:

Weinstein, Epstein, Stop n Frisk. Some skeletons starting to emerge from someone's closet..
Well I mean they're out there but stuff needs repeating a gazillion times before anyone notices

Blimey. If I was Mike I'd be quite nervous about this post.

Hell of an insinuation.

AlastairMeeks

TGOHF666 said:

Warren now 70 for the nomination.

Où sont les favoris d’antan?

rcs1000

Biden was 4x nearer Steyer than Buttigieg.

Pulpstar

Mysticrose said:

Pulpstar said:

Weinstein, Epstein, Stop n Frisk. Some skeletons starting to emerge from someone's closet..
Well I mean they're out there but stuff needs repeating a gazillion times before anyone notices

Blimey. If I was Mike I'd be quite nervous about this post.

Hell of an insinuation.

I don't think he's going to be nervous about some reasonably anonymous and low profile forum poster.

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

No, as Giuliani showed in 2008 missing the early states is not a good idea, Bloomberg will be playing catch up with no momentum

Pulpstar

The internal numbers from NH look decent for Sanders heading to NV I think, well ahead of Boooootyedge with non white voters

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further and Buttigieg and Klobuchar going nowhere

rcs1000

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TGOHF666 said:

Warren now 70 for the nomination.

The question for Warren, and apologies to the squeamish, is whether to hang on in case Bernie's ticker plays up again. Doubtless some poor staffer is scanning the actuarial tables.

Recent heart attach.
Close to 80 years old.
Engaged in a stressful and tiring activity.

Why would anyone worry about Sanders health?

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

The internal numbers from NH look decent for Sanders heading to NV I think, well ahead of Boooootyedge with non white voters

I always had NV as a Warren state, given her Union connections.

But it will be interesting to see what happens. Buttigieg speaks Spanish, I think.

TGOHF666

Pulpstar said:

The internal numbers from NH look decent for Sanders heading to NV I think, well ahead of Boooootyedge with non white voters

Non white voters won’t vote for a gay candidate?

Pulpstar

Nevada is Warren's last hope I think

HYUFD

Chameleon said:

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

Yes South Carolina is key, if Biden wins big there, compared to Buttigieg's scrap of a win in Iowa he will be the main non Sanders moderate candidate, Sanders' NH win having effectively dispatched Warren on the left liberal end

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

It is true, no candidate has won Nevada and the nomination while also losing Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

No candidate though has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina and got the nomination

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

Chameleon said:

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

Yes South Carolina is key, if Biden wins big there, compared to Buttigieg's scrap of a win in Iowa he will be the main non Sanders moderate candidate, Sanders' NH win having effectively dispatched Warren on the left liberal end

Didn't you say that the early numbers from the exit poll we'rey really good for Biden and bad for Buttigieg?

TGOHF666

In all the excitement of NH , the storyof the SNP Forth Bridge which can’t open when it’s cold - in Scotland is limited to local outlets.

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1227367758159122432?s=21

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

It is true, no candidate has won Nevada and the nomination while also losing Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

No candidate though has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina and got the nomination

https://xkcd.com/1122/

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

It is true, no candidate has won Nevada and the nomination while also losing Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

No candidate though has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina and got the nomination

How many candidates have lost Iowa and Nevada and still won the Democratic nomination? Ahhhh... That would be one.

How many Democratic candidates lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, and then won the nomination? Ahhhh... I think the answer is zero. (With Clinton '08 and Sanders '16 being the obvious examples.)

The point is that there are incredibly few datapoints to draw upon. And there are certainly no sweeping certainties.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Chameleon said:

Good speech from Biden, much more life. He just needs to hit SC big time, if he wins there while Buttigeg smashes into a wall then they'll swap places overnight.

Yes South Carolina is key, if Biden wins big there, compared to Buttigieg's scrap of a win in Iowa he will be the main non Sanders moderate candidate, Sanders' NH win having effectively dispatched Warren on the left liberal end

Didn't you say that the early numbers from the exit poll we'rey really good for Biden and bad for Buttigieg?

No, I said if over 65s voted in greater numbers that might help Biden as he did best with them, I did not say it would be bad for Buttigieg just he did best with 50 to 65s and Sanders with under 50s.

However I also cautioned young voters voted later and not to read too much into it

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

It is true, no candidate has won Nevada and the nomination while also losing Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

No candidate though has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina and got the nomination

How many candidates have lost Iowa and Nevada and still won the Democratic nomination? Ahhhh... That would be one.

How many Democratic candidates lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, and then won the nomination? Ahhhh... I think the answer is zero. (With Clinton '08 and Sanders '16 being the obvious examples.)

The point is that there are incredibly few datapoints to draw upon. And there are certainly no sweeping certainties.

They won because of Iowa not Nevada, Iowa was their first win.

Bill Clinton lost Iowa was second in New Hampshire but won South Carolina so again Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina are key.

Romney on the Republican side won New Hampshire and the nomination despite losing Iowa and South Carolina in 2012. In 2008 Romney won Nevada but lost Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and ended up 3rd behind McCain and Huckabee

OldKingCole

Good morning everyone. Totally O/t, but the wind seems to have dropped, at least for a bit, and it’s a rather nice winter morning.
On topic, could I be persuaded to go out and vote, even against Trump, for someone who is almost my age? Only if he or she had a running mate who could step into their shoes.
I know how I feel, and we saw Mr G, at a similar stage in life, reporting yesterday on cutting down on activities.

HYUFD

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Does the Culinary union hold that much power over their employees ? Nissan and Sunderland spring to mind.

I think it matters if they actually endorse someone and throw their organising weight behind them.

But a warning email... Minimal effect.

Nevada is largely irrelevant as usual, South Carolina is key, if Sanders or Biden wins South Carolina then Sanders will be strong favourite for the nomination, either having won 2 out of 3 of the big early states or with the moderate field still split further

You keep saying this.

It doesn't make it true.

It is true, no candidate has won Nevada and the nomination while also losing Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

No candidate though has failed to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina and got the nomination

How many candidates have lost Iowa and Nevada and still won the Democratic nomination? Ahhhh... That would be one.

How many Democratic candidates lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, and then won the nomination? Ahhhh... I think the answer is zero. (With Clinton '08 and Sanders '16 being the obvious examples.)

The point is that there are incredibly few datapoints to draw upon. And there are certainly no sweeping certainties.

They won because of Iowa not Nevada, Iowa was their first win.

Bill Clinton lost Iowa was second in New Hampshire but won South Carolina so again Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina are key.

Romney on the Republican side won New Hampshire and the nomination despite losing Iowa and South Carolina in 2012. In 2008 Romney won Nevada but lost Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and ended up 3rd behind McCain and Huckabee

In 1988 Dukakis lost Iowa, won New Hampshire and lost Nevada and lost South Carolina and still ended up the Democratic nominee

edmundintokyo

Lots of #YangGang people showing up on r/BaemyKlobaechar. Don't know if it's another sign of the KLOBUCHARGE, or if they're showing up everywhere, or if it's just that Baemy has a lot of untapped memetic potential.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is Michael Bloomberg the candidate who should be happiest tonight? Everyone else at least has something to fret about, while the race remains confused.

Amy Klobuchar must be optimistic. Third on 20 per cent (Bernie won with 25 per cent so she is not that far off) and can hope for transfers from Biden and perhaps even Warren if they drop out soon (which is, of course, not guaranteed). She looks well-placed to stay in the race and hope something turns up.

Assuming Biden goes then ultimately Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to have to decided between them who takes the moderate mantle forward.

Between them they could get half the vote in remaining states, assuming Bloomberg ends his cockblocking.

The DNC would be eternally grateful to Buttigieg if he were to make a deal with Klobuchar.

And it would probably much ensure that Bloomberg fell into line too.

Go on Baemy/Buttigieg, make that deal.

I’d be eternally grateful to Buttigieg as well.

I might even write him a cheque*

(*campaign finance laws notwithstanding)

NickPalmer

MikeL said:

Sanders now 2.74 for Dem Nom - having been 2.5 earlier this evening.

Suggests the market shares these doubts.

Yes, as a natural Sanders sympathiser I think the narrow win is disappointing - Sanders needs to give an impression of overwhelming momentum, and he can't rely on a split centrist vote indefinitely. On the whole, I think Buttigieg has most to be pleased about.

Casino_Royale

Is Warren worth topping up with £3 or £4 at 70s?

Foxy

edmundintokyo said:

Lots of #YangGang people showing up on r/BaemyKlobaechar. Don't know if it's another sign of the KLOBUCHARGE, or if they're showing up everywhere, or if it's just that Baemy has a lot of untapped memetic potential.

https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1227403770377703424?s=09

Amy has impressive stamina, she will keep going.

Foxy

Casino_Royale said:

Is Warren worth topping up with £3 or £4 at 70s?

She is out of it now after 2 poor showings.. It will be interesting to see where her vote goes.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Weinstein, Epstein, Stop n Frisk. Some skeletons starting to emerge from someone's closet..
Well I mean they're out there but stuff needs repeating a gazillion times before anyone notices

I wonder, who could you mean?

rkrkrk

Casino_Royale said:

Is Warren worth topping up with £3 or £4 at 70s?

Better to do for president at 249/1. And I'd say yes, there's still some way to go.