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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson: Main focus for LAB in North East is winning

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  • samsam Posts: 727
    dr_spyn said:

    Have any PBers had any leaflets from any parties about the local election - have only had a leaflet from the LDs, nothing from any of the others. Seems to be a very strange way to encourage voters, particularly when postal votes are taken into consideration.

    I have got a leaflet from Dame Angela Watkinson, and I have to say she looks very good for a 71 year old
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    RichardNabavi wins the first set of Pin Your Agenda On The Chechen
    Second Set - SeanT to serve

    Change the word Chechen to tories and tim wins game set and match.



  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    Actually, Mr. Nabavi, I have a very good idea how information is turned into intelligence. There is always a starting point, a name or a number, and from that you build out. So actually getting a warrant is a perfectly sensible safeguard.

    No, that is wrong. You have lots and lots of starting points, some definite, some tentative. What you are doing is trying to to find out if they are connected, and, if so, whether the connections lead you to another interesting node in the matrix (as Josias has accurately described it). This matrix is vast, requiring gigabytes of storage even if you represent each data point by a single bit. You can't possibly know in advance where the analysis will lead - what warrant could cover it? 'Yes, you can follow the first ten million links'?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    Rexel56 said:

    From BBC News:

    Old Holborn tweets: Essex Police investigate 'offensive' posts

    Police are investigating allegations against a man from Braintree in Essex of criminal communication through social media.

    They relate to "inappropriate and offensive" Twitter posts about the Boston bombing, the Hillsborough disaster and James Bulger's murder.

    An Essex police spokesman said the complaints were made on Thursday by a person living in Southport, Merseyside.


    Braint'ree! The only place in Essex where they celebrate a goal with a high six
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    F1: Ferrari and Lotus both look very good. Red Bull a bit harder to call. Force India also well-placed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    sam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Have any PBers had any leaflets from any parties about the local election - have only had a leaflet from the LDs, nothing from any of the others. Seems to be a very strange way to encourage voters, particularly when postal votes are taken into consideration.

    I have got a leaflet from Dame Angela Watkinson, and I have to say she looks very good for a 71 year old
    We had a Tory leaflet in the cottage we rent in Ferring (W Sussex) - quite elaborate and expensive-looking, entirely positive, no attacks on other parties or national stuff. Impression of hard-working local councillor with little ideological baggage is quite well done.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,597
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    There is a US Intelligence failure here. I suspect they were blind to infiltration from the former Soviet Union

    Any evidence he had form?

    None at all at the moment.

    But the gruntwork of intelligence is monitoring all individuals, good and bad, from high risk sources.

    One suspects that, after today, there will be a much closer look at all immigrants to the US (and elsewhere), temporary or otherwise, from the Caucasus.

    Just speculation tim but not unreasoned.
    You can't watch everybody, nor do you want to. America has high levels of immigration from all over the world, and 99.99% of these immigrants have no wish to harm their new country.

    What you can do is restrict access to the items needed to create bombs, and to other weapons. We've been doing this in this country for some time, with some notable successes (and sadly some failures).

    ISTR there was one plot where the authorities actually swapped the fertiliser the would-be terrorists had purchased with a similar, inert chemical, allowing them to make bombs with no danger of an attack.

    Like it or not, this will have an effect on the gun control quagmire. And the timing could not be more embarrassing for the US Senate given their vote this week.
    Josias, I fear Boston will have very little impact on US gun control. I think even Obama will stop short of linking Newtown and Boston.

    I agree that the vast majority of immigrants do not pose a risk to their adopting country, but there are high risk sources of immigration and general behaviour patterns which rightfully raise alarms.

    The quotations from the social media pages of the suspects quoted on pb today are clear pointers to risk.

    The problem the security forces face is not so much identifying high risk immigrants as determining which of a sizeable number of possible and identified risks warrant the allocation of additional surveillance resources. This was the case in 7/7 for example and I guess may be the case here.
    It's not a case of linking the events, but looking at the commonalities. One of which is, or so it appears at the moment, access to guns.

    If they had not had access to guns - and apparently one of them still has access to guns - then this situation today may not have developed as far as it has.

    And it will be linked with the stupid and self-defeating vote the Senate made earlier this week.

    But I very much agree with the rest of your post. It must be a devil's job for the authorities to allocate resources. If you make the right decision and a plot gets foiled, then there (may) be a small murmur in the papers. Get it wrong, and you could be blamed in all of the hindsight-driven recriminations afterwards.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @RichardNabavi: There is no reason why authorities who are not the police and intelligence services should get such powers and, yet, the government's proposed law envisages giving local councils, the HSE etc such intrusive surveillance powers. Why?

    If the surveillance powers were restricted to the police and intelligence services some of us might have less cause for concern about what is proposed.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Just read this Daily Mail headline and was intrigued:

    UKIP contesting more county council seats than the Lib Dems as new poll puts Farage's anti-EU party on DOUBLE Clegg's support
    UKIP fighting 1,486 county council seats on May 2 to Lib Dems' 1,443
    Nigel Farage confident of pushing Nick Clegg into 4th in the popular vote
    New AngusReid poll puts UKIP on 16% with Lib Dems on 8%
    Ed Miliband must live up to One Nation slogan with wins in the south
    Tories braced for heavy losses, wiping out huge gains made against Gordon Brown when seats were last contested in 2009

    I thought that Ukip was putting up over 1700 candidates and so were the L/dems. Are seats not candidates and vice versa?


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2310978/UKIP-fight-shire-councils-Lib-Dems-new-poll-puts-Farages-anti-EU-party-DOUBLE-Cleggs-support.html

    If you look at the table in the article they've broken down the May local elections into three categories: County councils, unitary authorities, and wales.

    UKIP are contesting more county council seats than the LDs.
  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Have any PBers had any leaflets from any parties about the local election - have only had a leaflet from the LDs, nothing from any of the others. Seems to be a very strange way to encourage voters, particularly when postal votes are taken into consideration.

    I have got a leaflet from Dame Angela Watkinson, and I have to say she looks very good for a 71 year old
    We had a Tory leaflet in the cottage we rent in Ferring (W Sussex) - quite elaborate and expensive-looking, entirely positive, no attacks on other parties or national stuff. Impression of hard-working local councillor with little ideological baggage is quite well done.

    Actually I hadnt read it and it is just a general leaflet saying she is my MP, nothing about any elections at all. Useful numbers etc. Probably sent because I just moved house and re registered to vote in Upminster
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's been a while since we had a cat video - this one loves being hoovered - I've never had one that didn't freak out at the sight of one nevermind lying back and enjoying it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTRhiOeRzfA
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    There's been some more developments on the Scouse threat fuss on Twitter - the world has gone mad.

    RT @fatcouncillor: Updated with new photo >> The Twitter Mob v Free Speech: why they must never be allowed to win: http://councillorahmedkhan.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-twitter-mob-v-free-speech-why-they.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rexel56 said:

    From BBC News:

    Old Holborn tweets: Essex Police investigate 'offensive' posts

    Police are investigating allegations against a man from Braintree in Essex of criminal communication through social media.

    They relate to "inappropriate and offensive" Twitter posts about the Boston bombing, the Hillsborough disaster and James Bulger's murder.

    An Essex police spokesman said the complaints were made on Thursday by a person living in Southport, Merseyside.


    What was the complaint ? That he had stopped tweeting thus depriving them of their human right to be offended ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    MBTA: "If ever there was a moment to STOP posting unconfirmed and unsourced statements overheard from a scanner, this would ..."

    classic

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    Cyclefree said:

    @RichardNabavi: There is no reason why authorities who are not the police and intelligence services should get such powers and, yet, the government's proposed law envisages giving local councils, the HSE etc such intrusive surveillance powers. Why?

    If the surveillance powers were restricted to the police and intelligence services some of us might have less cause for concern about what is proposed.

    My understanding is that the data would only be available to the police, the Serious and Organised Crime Agency, the intelligence agencies and HM Revenue and Customs. By 'data' is meant only the envelope, not the content:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20676284

    Other bodies would need a warrant to get the 'envelope' data, and a warrant would always be required to access the content.

    Have I and the BBC got this wrong?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Have I missed something re the Boston Bombers - they're demanding Chechen independence according to their FB pages - the US and Chechens?? Eh?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Had Voltaire tweeted "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." Some bloody fools would be after him pdq.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    so here's the question, what is the response?

    Q: There are armed and dangerous terrorists on the loose in your area. Do you support the right to bear arms?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Cyclefree said:

    @RichardNabavi: There is no reason why authorities who are not the police and intelligence services should get such powers and, yet, the government's proposed law envisages giving local councils, the HSE etc such intrusive surveillance powers. Why?

    If the surveillance powers were restricted to the police and intelligence services some of us might have less cause for concern about what is proposed.

    Have I and the BBC got this wrong?

    If you mean "and/or" by "and", then I have no doubt that everyone on PB will agree with you, Richard.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see someone is taking the mickey re Liverpool in quite an amusingly Twitterish way

    http://order-order.com/2013/04/19/boston-terror-suspect-hates-liverpool/
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Telly reports that Ed B has denied Labour will spend more than the tories after 2015.

    And you know that 500 quid a week benefits cap we fought tooth and nail?

    we're....um......keeping it.

    LOL Labour are funny.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    SeanT said:

    Hating America if you're a Chechen is like hating Man United when you are a fan of Huddersfield Town FC.

    WTF?

    Presumably (we still don't know) there is some jihadi/Islamist motivation but it's still very odd. If anything, as America is an opponent of Putin's Grozny-bombing Russia, you'd think the USA would be popular with Chechens.

    It may be that two psychotic, murderous young Chechen men who grew up in a variety of countries having fled from their homeland for whatever reason are not representative of the Chechen people as a whole. But if they are, what they have done is got America's attention and won themselves a whole lot of fame their miserable little lives would never have secured otherwise. It all looks more Columbine than militant jihadist to me. With proper training they would surely have killed many more.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    TOPPING said:

    so here's the question, what is the response?

    Q: There are armed and dangerous terrorists on the loose in your area. Do you support the right to bear arms?

    The correct answer, as every good American knows, is: "The question is a Commie plot to try to trap us into saying that we don't need to bear arms if there aren't armed and dangerous terrorists on the loose"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @RichardNabavi: "Have I and the BBC got this wrong?"

    Nick Du Bois MP (Con) has written this (it's worth reading the whole piece) at the Spectator -

    "A Freedom of Information request recently carried out by the organisation Big Brother Watch highlighted the large number of public authorities clamouring to get their hands on this vast mine of data. They included those who I would rightly expect to have access such as the Serious Fraud Office; to those who I cannot understand why they would ever need access – such as the Royal Mail, the Health and Safety Executive and the Charity Commission.

    I have even received representations from my own Local Authority, Enfield Council – calling on me to support the Cabinet Member for Environment’s wish to be granted access to communications data once the redrafted Bill comes back to Parliament."

    I'm afraid I am far more cynical than you are about this. I don't think that this will work (nor do some of the internet giants who would be caught by the intended legislation), it will be massively and disproportionately intrusive of the citizen and increase the power of the state over the citizen in malevolent ways.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It all looks more Columbine than militant jihadist to me.

    Absolutely agree SO. 9/11 it ain't and any attempt to lay this at the door of organised islamic militantcy would be absolutely incorrect.

    The US is wide open to anybody that fancies grabbing the headlines for a few days, as events in recent years have proved repeatedly.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Cyclefree - I'd agree that the list should be very severely limited. However, I think there is some confusion between the new powers, and the existing powers under RIPA and other statutes (all the information we're talking about is already retained and accessible for telephone calls, and no-one seems in the least bit worried by that).
  • tim said:

    @Southam

    TGOHF thinks it would be leading the news without Boston.
    Such insight

    Meanwhile the Ashcroft poll shows yet again just how unrepresentative of Tory voters the PB Tories are

    In which case, your work is done, you are ranting pointlessly to half a dozen unrepresentative bloggers and you can stop, and get a life.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @RichardNabavi -

    All of the following agencies have asked for ongoing access to the communications data which will be caught by the proposed Snooping Law:-

    1. Ambulance Services
    2. Department for Business, Skills and Innovation
    3. Charity Commission
    4. Civil Nuclear Constabulary
    5. Criminal Cases Review Commission
    6. Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission
    7. Department of Agriculture & Rural Development in Northern Ireland
    8. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
    9. Department Of Enterprise, Trade And Investment For Northern Ireland
    10. Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland
    11. Department of Health – Medicines & Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency
    12. Department for Transport – Accident Investigation Branches and Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
    13. Department for Work and Pensions (including in relation to functions formerly the responsibility of the Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commission)
    14. Environment Agency
    15. Financial Services Authority
    16. Fire & Rescue Services
    17. Food Standards Agency
    18. Gambling Commission
    19. Gangmasters Licensing Authority
    20. Health and Safety Executive
    21. Independent Police Complaints Commission
    22. Information Commissioner
    23. Local Authorities
    24. Maritime and Coastguard Agency
    25. Ministry of Justice (NOMS and Contracted Out Prisons)
    26. NHS Services
    27. NI Office (Prison Service)
    28. The Office of Communications (Ofcom)
    29. Office of Fair Trading
    30. Pensions Regulator
    31. Ports Police – including Dover and Liverpool
    32. Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland (PONI)
    33. Royal Mail
    34. Serious Fraud Office
    35. Scottish Environment Protection Agency
    36. UK Border Agency – including Border Force

    And that's before we start with local authorities and the rest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    @tim

    so, you are in Watertown. You don't have a gun. A policeman comes to your door and says: "that guy is still on the loose, do you want to have this gun?"

    what's your answer?

    Or would it never happen in, say, Solihull?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A good day to bury bad - well at least mixed - news?

    Bank of England figures released today show a big drop in lending to business over the past three months but a pickup in mortgage lending.

    Lending to business fell 4.4 per cent in the three months to February, the Bank of England has reported.

    According to the Trends in Lending survey, this represents a fall of £4.8bn between December and February, and a decline of £2.8bn in February alone.

    The Bank said mortgage lending to individuals was "broadly unchanged", presenting a "positive, though weak picture", up 0.7% in the three months to February compared to the same period the previous year.

    The Council for Mortgage Lending (CML) pointed out that March figures were considerably better than those seen in February, and are confident the market is picking up.

    The organisation estimates that total gross mortgage lending increased to £11.6bn in March from £10.6bn in February.


    Mr. Broke and Another Richard won't like this but tim will no doubt welcome the boost to the housing market.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @RichardNabavi: Actually some of us are worried - and have been for some time - about how existing powers (such as RIPA) have been used or misused.

    The Tories and the Lib Dems were supposed to be rolling back the surveillance state (see the Coalition agreement) not increasing it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @Taffys: Until the second bomber is caught and we know why they did what they did and whether anyone else was involved we don't know whether this is the work of 2 deranged people or something more organised or some inept attempt to copy more organised groups or something else entirely.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Only Way To Stop A Bad Guy With A Pressure Cooker Is With A Good Guy With A Pressure Cooker.

    National Pressure Cooker Association.

    That doesnt work.

    The argument for gun ownership is nothing to do with terrorism, as you probably know. It is so people can defend themselves if their homes are broken into, or more importantly, to make burglars wary of breaking into them in the first place.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @SO

    Of course I am not suggesting that all Chechens are like that but it is hard to think of a people who have had a rawer deal from history and there is a really nasty jihadi streak in the culture. As to whether it is more columbine than jihadi we will have to wait to see whether these humans are connected to a wider network or not. If not then I think that my point downthread about the conflation of jihadism with pure nihilism stands. As Dostoeyevsky and Condrad so memorably documented more than a century ago ideology may just provide an inspiration for people who actually just like to do that sort of thing anyway. While we can speculate why such humans are generated in the first place - multiple identities amongst immigrants and all that - what is I think I am erring toward evil being a perfectly servicable moral category and we are looking at it here.

    Look at that image (can't link as travelling, its on the Telegraph live coverage) of White Hat dropping the bomb off, with what seems to be a smile on his face, next to that little boy who has seconds to live. Sociology does not provide an adequate explanation. Possibly the most chilling image I have ever seen.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Bank of England figures released today show a big drop in lending to business over the past three months but a pickup in mortgage lending.

    Rebalancing the economy towards debt and house price inflation, it's all George has left.

    False, tim. George at least has the memory of Margaret to comfort him.

    More work needs to be done to establish whether the fall in lending to business represents supply problems (bank recapitalisation), lack of credit demand (we doing OK no need for a loan, or, falling business investment).

    Don't guess the answer!

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Cyclefree - In that case, those organisations should be firmly told where they can put their request for access to the data.

    All this doesn't alter the fact that, to counter terrorism BEFORE it happens, the security services need access, without a warrant, to the data in question.

    Also, we shouldn't get too paranoid about all the other bodies:

    "We are satisfied that the four main users currently listed in the draft Bill—the police, SOCA, HMRC and the intelligence and security services—should remain on the face of theBill as public authorities allowed access to communications data. Together they currently account for 99% of requests for communications data"

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt201213/jtselect/jtdraftcomuni/79/79.pdf

    Page 38
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    UK Fracking update.

    BBG reports that Caudrilla estimate its licenses in the North West of England contain twice the total gas reserves of Iraq (Only 10% is recoverable, however).

    That's one company for one part of the country....
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Miss the edit button :-(
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @Cyclefree

    There are now reports of arrests of associates of the two brothers. We have no information to assess whether or not they were plugged into a wider network, either ideologically or operationally.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Apropos of the swift Boston police action: are there still people around who think that CCTV is a bad thing?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    @tim

    I think it's more to do with defending yourself against the IMF/UN conspiracy.

    Benedict Brogan
    Osborne believes Obama Keynesians at IMF inc Olivier Blanchard are attacking Plan A as a proxy attack on US Republicans, according to #FT

    Said a weeping Baronet.


    There is a much simpler explanation, tim.

    Both George and I'll-ave-another Blancmange are competing for the hand of Christine Lagarde.

    What I'll-ave-another has forgotten is that French ladies have a penchant for titles.

    George has won. He is weeping tears of joy.

    Ed Conway is merely doing what all Eds do when forced to watch events unfold on video.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    sam said:

    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Only Way To Stop A Bad Guy With A Pressure Cooker Is With A Good Guy With A Pressure Cooker.

    National Pressure Cooker Association.

    That doesnt work.

    The argument for gun ownership is nothing to do with terrorism, as you probably know. It is so people can defend themselves if their homes are broken into, or more importantly, to make burglars wary of breaking into them in the first place.
    With slight problem that gun owners have more of a tendency to blow themselves or their loved ones away rather than any burglar.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    @NickPalmer

    there will be as many people who say such incidents are so few and far between so as not to justify the right to bear arms as those who say such incidents are so few and far between so as not to justify a cctv camera on each street corner.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The telly has an interesting article from the ONS on home ownership vs renting occupier in the UK over the last century

    Peak of owner occupier was 69% in 2001, down to 64% by 2011. 25% in 1918....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    The telly has an interesting article from the ONS on home ownership vs renting occupier in the UK over the last century

    Peak of owner occupier was 69% in 2001, down to 64% by 2011. 25% in 1918....

    I think there was some rent control legislation introduced during WW1 that made renting unattractive, and changed behaviour.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:



    Said a weeping Baronet.

    OMFG!

    YOU'RE the one in six who wants Maggie back in charge!

    I didn't think even you would really be sick enough to laugh at a mourner crying at a funeral. It's transference. YOU cried during the funeral and you hate yourself for it so you're now lashing out at Osborne.

    Damn. I'm sorry for your loss. Don't feel bad about all the hate that's been directed at you; no one realised, they were bound to think you were disgusting without realising.

    Chin up
  • samsam Posts: 727
    BenM said:

    sam said:

    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Only Way To Stop A Bad Guy With A Pressure Cooker Is With A Good Guy With A Pressure Cooker.

    National Pressure Cooker Association.

    That doesnt work.

    The argument for gun ownership is nothing to do with terrorism, as you probably know. It is so people can defend themselves if their homes are broken into, or more importantly, to make burglars wary of breaking into them in the first place.
    With slight problem that gun owners have more of a tendency to blow themselves or their loved ones away rather than any burglar.
    I was just saying that the NRAs reasoning for gun ownership isnt meant to deal with terorist attacks. The rights and wrongs of it are for others to argue about.

    But are you saying gun owners, when confronting a burglar, injure themselves/family more often than they do the intruder? If thats so Id be very surprised


  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    With slight problem that gun owners have more of a tendency to blow themselves or their loved ones away rather than any burglar.

    Agreed. A gun represents a very quick and simple solution for anybody suffering from clinical depression who has suicidal thoughts.

    Many other methods aren't nearly so straight forward.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Apropos of the swift Boston police action: are there still people around who think that CCTV is a bad thing?

    Where I live in central London, every single moment of my day when I'm on the streets is tracked by a cctv camera. The only place that I am not being monitored is behind my own front door. Do I feel this loss? Yes, very keenly.

    There have been many examples of cctv footage being terribly misused for private profit. If those who were as keen on cctv were as keen on curbing its misuse, I'd have a bit more respect for them.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "...one thing to watch out for is the increasing prominence of planning on campaign literature. It’s no coincidence that as the green belt appears on UKIP local election leaflets, Tory MPs are growing increasingly jittery about any Westminster moves to encroach on green spaces. It’s another example of Nigel Farage trying to branch out his party’s appeal from simply Europe and immigration."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/tories-look-to-exploit-labours-southern-discomfort/
  • taffys said:

    UK Fracking update.

    BBG reports that Caudrilla estimate its licenses in the North West of England contain twice the total gas reserves of Iraq (Only 10% is recoverable, however).

    That's one company for one part of the country....

    Great news, can we have a North West independence party, but somehow keep the scousers out of it.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    sam said:

    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Only Way To Stop A Bad Guy With A Pressure Cooker Is With A Good Guy With A Pressure Cooker.

    National Pressure Cooker Association.

    That doesnt work.

    The argument for gun ownership is nothing to do with terrorism, as you probably know. It is so people can defend themselves if their homes are broken into, or more importantly, to make burglars wary of breaking into them in the first place.
    With slight problem that gun owners have more of a tendency to blow themselves or their loved ones away rather than any burglar.
    Ok I get what you mean, people with guns kill themselves/family with them.

    The argument, not mine particularly, is that if no one is allowed them only bad guys will have them.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The popularity of medicine as a terrorist vocation most recently surfaced in connection with the botched attempt to bomb a nightclub in central London and the dramatic, but largely ineffectual, attack on Glasgow’s International Airport in June 2007. Six of the eight persons arrested were either doctors or medical students; the seventh person was employed as a technician in a hospital laboratory; and the eighth member of the conspiracy was neither a medical doctor nor in health care, but instead had earned a doctorate in design and technology.

    Medical doctors becoming terrorists is hardly new, either. George Habash, the founder and leader of a prominent 1960s-era Palestinian terrorist group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), was a medical doctor. As was the PFLP’s head of special operations, Wadi Haddad.

    Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s chief strategist and bin Laden’s deputy, is a trained surgeon. Orlando Bosch, who was active in the militant Miami, Florida-based anti-Castro movement and was charged with the inflight bombing of a Cubana Airlines flight in 1976 that killed 73 persons, practiced as a pediatrician. "
    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/bruce-hoffman/todays-highly-educated-terrorists-4080
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    @pbr2013
    Miss the edit button :-( <

    It appears in the top Rt hand corner when your mouse covers it's space.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @Nick Palmer

    Not that swift. One of the bombers is still on the loose and it does not look as though the cops would have zeroed in on them but for them being disturbed doing whatever it was that they were doing at MIT last night. Most of the imagary floating around the web seems to be crowd-sourced from phones rather than CCTV.

    Torn on the subject myself.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited April 2013
    pbr2013 said:

    Miss the edit button :-(

    I have one, on iPhone.. Comes up over the top right corner of all my own posts, I've cleared up quite a few typos

    Edit - only gives me an hour
  • tim said:



    Said a weeping Baronet.

    OMFG!

    YOU'RE the one in six who wants Maggie back in charge!

    I didn't think even you would really be sick enough to laugh at a mourner crying at a funeral. It's transference. YOU cried during the funeral and you hate yourself for it so you're now lashing out at Osborne.

    Damn. I'm sorry for your loss. Don't feel bad about all the hate that's been directed at you; no one realised, they were bound to think you were disgusting without realising.

    Chin up
    Don't like the new system a bit, but was forced to sign up to Like your post. tim in this mode is foul. FJ
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    sam said:

    BenM said:

    sam said:

    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Only Way To Stop A Bad Guy With A Pressure Cooker Is With A Good Guy With A Pressure Cooker.

    National Pressure Cooker Association.

    That doesnt work.

    The argument for gun ownership is nothing to do with terrorism, as you probably know. It is so people can defend themselves if their homes are broken into, or more importantly, to make burglars wary of breaking into them in the first place.
    With slight problem that gun owners have more of a tendency to blow themselves or their loved ones away rather than any burglar.
    Ok I get what you mean, people with guns kill themselves/family with them.

    The argument, not mine particularly, is that if no one is allowed them only bad guys will have them.
    I quite like this as a pro-gun presentation.

    http://youtu.be/B5ELyG9V1SY
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @RichardNabavi: if those 4 agencies account for 99% of current requests, why is the Home Office consulting on anyone else having access?

    I'm sorry but I simply do not believe the government's assurances on this. They are seeking to extend state power over individuals beyond what is acceptable or necessary in a free society.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A true angel" - the suspect's father's comment on his son.

    How reassuring.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Another possible impact, looking at Luke harding's commentary on this blog:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/boston-mit-police-dead-watertown

    - if Chechens from the same movement are prominent in Aleppo (Yokel will know?), any US inclination to arm the rebels there may diminish sharply.

    CCTV: Antifrank, my understanding (possibly out of date) of the use of CCTV in Britain is that all footage is destroyed if not used in criminal investigation within 4 weeks. That seems a reasonable compromise to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @AndyJS

    Ernesto Guevara - medical student.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    UK Fracking update.

    BBG reports that Caudrilla estimate its licenses in the North West of England contain twice the total gas reserves of Iraq (Only 10% is recoverable, however).

    That's one company for one part of the country....


    Bad news for the locals - they'll have to take the jobs that will spring up.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Cyclefree - I agree with you on the scope, but you haven't addressed the key issue, which is the need for the powers for the intelligence services. Do you or do you not agree it is necessary and proportionate for the intelligence services to have access to this data without a warrant? If you do, then we are in perfect agreement.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Eck goes after a 16% strategy..

    http://www.thetablet.co.uk/latest-news/5217


    "Salmond: Catholic Church is central
    18 April 2013

    The Catholic Church in Scotland will recover from its current troubles and remains at the heart of Scottish life, First Minister Alex Salmond said.

    Speaking to The Tablet after attending Lady Thatcher's funeral at St Paul's Cathedral yesterday, he told The Tablet of the enduring importance of the Catholic Church to Scotland as a nation despite its current troubles.

    Mr Salmond was known to be close to Cardinal Keith O'Brien, whose departure from office for inappropriate conduct has shaken the Church in Scotland.

    Mr Salmond, leader of the Scottish National Party, said the Church had been "at the heart of the independence movement in Scotland" in the past, and that "without the Catholic Church there would be no Scotland.""
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tim said:

    Oh dear, Dave has described people from Durham as Geordies.

    All those key marginals in Durham irrevocably lost.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @jonnyJimmy

    Thanks, but not on the windows box I am now posting from in the office there isn't.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Oh dear, Dave has described people from Durham as Geordies.

    Ouch, there could be a wipeout of Tory MPs in County Durham after that!

    ETA: smartypants antifrank got there first ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Oh dear, Dave has described people from Durham as Geordies.

    People admit to coming from Durham ????

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hope everyone has a good time at DD's tonight.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    I nominate @tim's 3.45 as post of the year. Cuts right to the quick of contemporary political events.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,597
    pbr2013 said:

    I nominate @tim's 3.45 as post of the year. Cuts right to the quick of contemporary political events.

    Personally I prefer his 'person crying at funeral will shape the media narrative' rubbish from Wednesday.

    It sums up everything that's wrong with politics.

    And his head.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    taffys said:

    UK Fracking update.

    BBG reports that Caudrilla estimate its licenses in the North West of England contain twice the total gas reserves of Iraq (Only 10% is recoverable, however).

    That's one company for one part of the country....

    Well....

    What are the uncertainty bounds on that estimate?

    Why compare with gas reserves in Iraq - I thought Iraq was more noted for its oil than its gas? I would think it made more sense to compare with the amount of gas pumped out of the UK part of the North Sea to date.

    I presume that is 10% with current technology - but as we see continually the technology improves, so that could easily become >10% in time.

    I assume that Caudrilla are looking off the coast of Blackpool because that's where their brainy geologists told them the best prospects were. It doesn't necessarily mean much for the rest of the country.

    I hope that Caudrilla are employing some of the best lawyers to defend themselves from the class action suits that will come as sea levels rise.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Interesting video on Guardian Boston blog site linked downthread by NP.

    It looks as if the suspect has surrendered. Video of him lying on a drive of a house surrounded at some distance by armed police.

    The standoff may be concerns that he is wired up to an explosive device.

    But this video is in conflict with Sky News reporting gunfire being heard.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    pbr2013 said:

    I nominate @tim's 3.45 as post of the year. Cuts right to the quick of contemporary political events.

    It may surprise some newcomers but there was a lunatic fringe who one year wanted to make tim poster of the year.

    He was too busy milking his cows to collect in person however.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some reports that Dzhokhar Tsarnaev may have an associate, which changes things a bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,597
    AveryLP said:

    Interesting video on Guardian Boston blog site linked downthread by NP.

    It looks as if the suspect has surrendered. Video of him lying on a drive of a house surrounded at some distance by armed police.

    The standoff may be concerns that he is wired up to an explosive device.

    But this video is in conflict with Sky News reporting gunfire being heard.

    They are also, apparently (according to R5L) rounding up acquaintances as well. So both could be right, or wrong.
  • A long delayed costs hearing will take on Monday at 10 am in the Crown Court at Southwark.
    Before the Honourable Mr Justice Sweeney
    For Mention:
    T20127076 PRYCE Vasiliki (Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981) - Linked to:
    For Mention (Defendant to Attend):
    T20127076 HUHNE Christopher (Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981)
    Looks as if Mr Huhne will be returning to London from the rolling Gloucestershire countryside.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,597
    tim said:

    @Josias.

    You can always watch the cat videos instead.

    Not a great fan of cat videos. We nearly got a cat (see PB passim), but Mrs J didn't want to turn into Mad Cat Lady.

    Still, it's good to see you want to turn your back on the claims you made on Wednesday. Because they were rather hilariously proved wrong.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited April 2013
    I'm just off to DD's now see everyone about 6.30
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    @AveryLP: Crisis? What crisis?

    !!!
    Mark Carney warned on Thursday that he would be moving to a "crisis" economy when he takes over as governor of the Bank of England later this year.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/18/bank-england-carney-uk-crisis-country
  • tim said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 13m
    Coroner confirms Swansea man had measles at time of death http://itv.co/11AUsgy

    They are welsh, how would you tell?
    (duck)

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, Hungary's economy might be even more royally buggered than Britain's, but at least they can manage some decent sunshine. I'm working from home in my garden courtesy of the wifi, in a t shirt.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    @AveryLP: Crisis? What crisis?

    !!!

    Mark Carney warned on Thursday that he would be moving to a "crisis" economy when he takes over as governor of the Bank of England later this year.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/18/bank-england-carney-uk-crisis-country

    As Carney included in his list of 'crisis' countries almost every country in the world bar the US, his host at the time, then I don't see anything that singles out the UK for special alarm, Ben.

    I just think he was trying to get his hotel bill paid.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013

    A long delayed costs hearing will take on Monday at 10 am in the Crown Court at Southwark.

    Before the Honourable Mr Justice Sweeney For Mention: T20127076 PRYCE Vasiliki (Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981) - Linked to:
    For Mention (Defendant to Attend): T20127076 HUHNE Christopher (Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981)
    Looks as if Mr Huhne will be returning to London from the rolling Gloucestershire countryside. They can have a reunion and compare notes on their new accomodation.

    But tim did tell us that Huhne's political career would not be toast. One of the all time predictions on political betting along with Mr Senior's "no recession" and Roger's "Obama will not win".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    Oh dear, Dave has described people from Durham as Geordies.

    Almost as good as when Clegg, in Gateshead said 'Its great to be in Newcastle!' The intake of breath was audible.....easiest way to wind up someone from Gateshead and describe for example, the Sage as 'the Newcastle Sage Centre....'

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The goverment ought to make vaccinations compulsory IMO.
  • AndyJS said:

    The goverment ought to make vaccinations compulsory IMO.

    What is the Welsh govt doing about this welsh NHS problem?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,972
    TGOHF said:

    Eck goes after a 16% strategy..

    The Catholic Church in Scotland will recover from its current troubles and remains at the heart of Scottish life, First Minister Alex Salmond said.

    He's said similar things about 'The' Rangers. With Green finally taking a walk he might even be right.
  • tim said:

    Oh dear, Dave has described people from Durham as Geordies.

    and the people of Durham called Ed Miliband, David.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting
    But tim did tell us that Huhne's political career would not be toast.
    You made that up.
    I, along with the other smart punters, had three wins on the Huhne is Toast markets which were helpfully ramped on here and were all time dependent.

    No, you continually mocked pb posters on here who had said that Huhne was toast. How you bet was your affair but your words said some thing else. Maybe we should accept that you do not believe in what you write?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Anorak

    This is the point when the journalists realise what they were largely responsible for

    London Assembly ‏@LondonAssembly 24m
    The London Assembly seeks advice from chief medical officer on #measles risk to #London - http://goo.gl/wi4kD #news

    GPonline.com ‏@GPonlinenews 51m
    Exclusive: Measles outbreak in London 'inevitable' as GP practices urged to prepare: http://bit.ly/1042olz

    Yep. I live in [a nice part of] London, and there's a preponderance of lentil eating f*cknuts who won't vaccinate little Tarquin or Amelie "just in case there's something in it" or "I had it when I was little, and I was fine" or most spectacularly of all "they're not even very common illnesses any more". And yes, someone actually - in real life - said the last one to me.

    I can see some radical rethinks on the horizon.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    AveryLP said:

    Interesting video on Guardian Boston blog site linked downthread by NP.

    It looks as if the suspect has surrendered. Video of him lying on a drive of a house surrounded at some distance by armed police.

    The standoff may be concerns that he is wired up to an explosive device.

    But this video is in conflict with Sky News reporting gunfire being heard.

    Pretty sure that's an earlier video still being shown of the first suspect before he was taken to hospital. I saw it earlier on the same blog site.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    But tim did tell us that Huhne's political career would not be toast

    How many times do we have to deal with this canard? The problem with recycling this myth is that you might put off newer posters from following any tips tim puts up when, in fact, he (along with anyone who followed him) made money on this market.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Obama should order in NCIS to sort out Boston problem ....

    Zeva David - Phhhoooaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Interesting video on Guardian Boston blog site linked downthread by NP.

    It looks as if the suspect has surrendered. Video of him lying on a drive of a house surrounded at some distance by armed police.

    The standoff may be concerns that he is wired up to an explosive device.

    But this video is in conflict with Sky News reporting gunfire being heard.

    Pretty sure that's an earlier video still being shown of the first suspect before he was taken to hospital. I saw it earlier on the same blog site.

    Thanks, Nick. Noted.
  • Neil said:


    But tim did tell us that Huhne's political career would not be toast

    How many times do we have to deal with this canard? The problem with recycling this myth is that you might put off newer posters from following any tips tim puts up when, in fact, he (along with anyone who followed him) made money on this market.
    It is difficult to follow tim when he denied at the start that Huhne was going to be toast and then later says he placed bets in a different way.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I hope they get him alive. Otherwise we'll never get a proper explanation of this whole affair.
This discussion has been closed.