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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seemingly endless LAB leadership race trudges on and there

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seemingly endless LAB leadership race trudges on and there’s been nothing to shift Starmer

We are now 2 months and one week away from the special labour conference when the new leader will be announced. This will follow, of course, the membership ballot which won’t go out for weeks and won’t be counted until early April.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    First, like Starmer
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Foxy said:

    First, like Starmer

    Keep Calmer...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    Indeed, but possibly the Dem will be a bigger loser. Although we will know Bernie has lost long before Keir goes near the voters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    The reason for the length of this drawn-out contest is simple = to keep Corbyn as leader for as long as possible...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223015180193468422/photo/1

    Is that Belgium beer that our Nige is drinking?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    The reason for the length of this drawn-out contest is simple = to keep Corbyn as leader for as long as possible...

    Yes. I believe there is some kind of end of the pier tour in which he will cement the total domination of Corbynism and all its works across the party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223015180193468422/photo/1

    Is that Belgium beer that our Nige is drinking?

    I think he was channeling his inner chubby bubbles. ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223016243004870664/photo/1
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    The reason for the length of this drawn-out contest is simple = to keep Corbyn as leader for as long as possible...

    Perhaps.

    Or maybe it's just Labour's innate love of process, including setting up a complex and convoluted system and then ignoring much of the rationale for the system and spraying prizes for all anyway.

    Unless you run the MPs/CLPs/affiliates phases simultaneously, I'm not sure how it could be much shorter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223015180193468422/photo/1

    Is that Belgium beer that our Nige is drinking?

    I think he was channeling his inner chubby bubbles. ;)
    I see May is as impressed with everyone else as ever.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1223011131456921601
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Jonathan said:

    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!

    :lol:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    It is beginning to look like the only way Starmer loses from here is if the leadership and NEC find a way to stop the new members voting. That - or Long-Bailey supporters abandoning her for Nandy. I am struggling to compute all this. I cannot believe Labour might just, possibly be taking the first few, small and tentative steps to becoming a serious party once more. Something has to go wrong.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @Byronic should take a leaf out of Steve Baker’s book.

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1222913757699084288?s=21
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited January 2020
    Jonathan said:

    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!

    In 24 hours we'll crash out and fall off a cliff.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    It’s not really late yet!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    True. And true.

    But remember that:
    1. Momentum has an inbuilt advantage at this stage of the contest, through access to comprehensive lists built up from 2016, which it is using to try and mobilise Corbyn supporters to go to nomination meetings.
    2. Rejoining members can't vote in nomination meetings.
    3. When Nandy is winning nominations (including a couple tonight), those also belong in the "anyone but Long-Bailey" camp.
    4. When Corbyn beat Smith 62/38 in 2016, Corbyn won more than 5 times as many CLP nominations as Smith. CLP meetings tend to be overly dominated by the far left and are not representative of the views of CLP members.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    SouthamObserver said:

    It is beginning to look like the only way Starmer loses from here is if the leadership and NEC find a way to stop the new members voting. That - or Long-Bailey supporters abandoning her for Nandy. I am struggling to compute all this. I cannot believe Labour might just, possibly be taking the first few, small and tentative steps to becoming a serious party once more. Something has to go wrong.

    While I think Starmer looks and sounds credible, it does all look a bit too easy for him at the present time, I can see why people would be looking for the next pitfall.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1223017682989129729?s=21
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,088
    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gallowgate said:

    @Byronic should take a leaf out of Steve Baker’s book.

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1222913757699084288?s=21

    I voted Remain!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.

    To have any chance at all, Long-Bailey will need to be in first place and on 40%+ after the first round of votes.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Jonathan said:

    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!

    Just in time looking at Newsnight

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1222997684090556417?s=19

    Mrs Foxy had 10 hours on a Trolley in an Emergency Dept last week. She is OK, but I did feel sorry for the dozen or so other patients who were still there on trolleys when we headed for home, some from before we arrived.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Final Cabinet meeting while in the EU will be held in Sunderland.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Iowa is looking very important...

    https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1222945406272901120
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    geoffw said:

    Jonathan said:

    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!

    In 24 hours we'll crash out and fall off a cliff.

    Nah, that is 11 months away.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    geoffw said:

    Final Cabinet meeting while in the EU will be held in Sunderland.

    I can bet you they wont be back when Nissan closes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    Jonathan said:

    In 24hrs we’re making 350M a week for the NHS!

    In 24 hours we'll crash out and fall off a cliff.

    Nah, that is 11 months away.
    'phew!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    SouthamObserver said:

    It is beginning to look like the only way Starmer loses from here is if the leadership and NEC find a way to stop the new members voting. That - or Long-Bailey supporters abandoning her for Nandy. I am struggling to compute all this. I cannot believe Labour might just, possibly be taking the first few, small and tentative steps to becoming a serious party once more. Something has to go wrong.

    It's the hope that kills you.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nightynight
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    SouthamObserver said:

    It is beginning to look like the only way Starmer loses from here is if the leadership and NEC find a way to stop the new members voting. That - or Long-Bailey supporters abandoning her for Nandy. I am struggling to compute all this. I cannot believe Labour might just, possibly be taking the first few, small and tentative steps to becoming a serious party once more. Something has to go wrong.

    Snap.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    surely Penn is the big one though?

    https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1222928454024224768
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1223015342592679936
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Nobody to be leader? Sounds an improvement on last guy.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,088
    rottenborough said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
    Yes, and the Pope will be the next leader of the U.U.P.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    It took the Tories 7 months to elect Cameron to succeed Howard in 2005 after the May 2005 general election defeat with Howard staying interim leader then as Corbyn is now and that did not end up too badly for the Tories as they ended up largest party after the following general election and formed a coalition government.

    After a devastating defeat better for Labour to reflect and debate with 4 or 5 years until a GE than rush into electing a new leader without properly testing the candidates
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    TheGreenMachine said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
    Yes, and the Pope will be the next leader of the U.U.P.
    No, she is a real possibility, as is Hobhouse.

    I like Davey, and think he is an effective media performer, but if the party wants to distance itself from the Coalition years, he may not get it.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1223011131456921601

    Starmer has rightly warned Labour members not to traduce the achievements of the last Labour government. The far left within the Labour Party instead sees fit to traduce them all.

    Clement Attlee, 1955:
    "Labour has nothing to gain by dwelling in the past. Nor do I think we can impress the nation by adopting a futile left-wingism. I regard myself as Left of Centre which is where a Party Leader ought to be."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Though by way of comparison the Democrats will have held 33 primaries or caucuses by the time the Labour leader is elected in early April but still have 25 primaries and caucuses to go.

    If you think British party leadership elections take a long time, try US presidential nomination races
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1223015342592679936

    Who was the draw between?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Foxy said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
    Yes, and the Pope will be the next leader of the U.U.P.
    No, she is a real possibility, as is Hobhouse.

    I like Davey, and think he is an effective media performer, but if the party wants to distance itself from the Coalition years, he may not get it.
    Well, I've thrown a few quid at Daisy at 20-odd/1. Just for fun really.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1223015342592679936

    Who was the draw between?
    Thornberry/RBL.



    No, I'm joking:

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1223015815626346502
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    rottenborough said:

    surely Penn is the big one though?

    https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1222928454024224768

    Sanders does better than Biden in Michigan then but no where else v Trump and only Biden looks like putting Arizona and Iowa in play
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    surely Penn is the big one though?

    https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1222928454024224768

    Sanders does better than Biden in Michigan then but no where else v Trump and only Biden looks like putting Arizona and Iowa in play
    Yep. Dems are looking like they want to lose this unless the polling is wrong, which to be honest I think it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    Deaths are less than 9th Feb figure though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited January 2020
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
    What are the PB Tories going to do with themselves if the Corbynites lose?

    I suggest some sort of support group!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Getting the feeling that Lab members want someone who might actually be able to breath on the window of winning...

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1223008323135512578
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    SouthamObserver said:

    It is beginning to look like the only way Starmer loses from here is if the leadership and NEC find a way to stop the new members voting. That - or Long-Bailey supporters abandoning her for Nandy. I am struggling to compute all this. I cannot believe Labour might just, possibly be taking the first few, small and tentative steps to becoming a serious party once more. Something has to go wrong.

    ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Anabobazina said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
    What are the PB Tories going to do with themselves if the Corbynites lose?

    I suggest some sort of support group!
    More of them should have paid the £25 to get a vote!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Gallowgate said:

    @Byronic should take a leaf out of Steve Baker’s book.

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1222913757699084288?s=21

    Gallowgate said:

    @Byronic should take a leaf out of Steve Baker’s book.

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1222913757699084288?s=21

    Remarkably gracious from Baker. Fair play to him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Lots of Dems must be suffering this?

    https://twitter.com/CasMudde/status/1222976393790869504
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    Deaths are less than 9th Feb figure though.
    I think that there are now 213 fatalities.

    The first recorded person to person transmitted case in the USA too, someone who has never been to China.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Byronic said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Byronic should take a leaf out of Steve Baker’s book.

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1222913757699084288?s=21

    I voted Remain!
    Did you fuck. We’ve had to endure your daily bleating about your Leave vote, and various periods of buyer’s remorse, for the last three and a half years!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1223023622085914626?s=20
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,088
    Foxy said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
    Yes, and the Pope will be the next leader of the U.U.P.
    No, she is a real possibility, as is Hobhouse.

    I like Davey, and think he is an effective media performer, but if the party wants to distance itself from the Coalition years, he may not get it.
    Fair enough, I've nothing against Daisy but I don't think she has the wow factor as the saying goes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1222649371868590080
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anabobazina said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
    What are the PB Tories going to do with themselves if the Corbynites lose?

    I suggest some sort of support group!
    I’ve been looking at this forum for a decade, and the much mocked ‘PB Tories‘ seem to have won every meaningful election!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1222954030118379523?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
    Undoubtedly their "model" is simply an exponential fit to the data. Seems irresponsible to share it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1222944288830631936?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1222906091685675008?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Foxy said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Who will be the next lib Dems leader?

    Daisy!
    Yes, and the Pope will be the next leader of the U.U.P.
    No, she is a real possibility, as is Hobhouse.

    I like Davey, and think he is an effective media performer, but if the party wants to distance itself from the Coalition years, he may not get it.
    Fair enough, I've nothing against Daisy but I don't think she has the wow factor as the saying goes.
    I think a calm period of several years of Davey seems the best idea. The Coalition thing is, frankly, crap. 99% of voters could not pick Davey out of a list of two possible LibDem MPs, the other photo being of squirrel.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1222903433591775232?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rottenborough said:

    Anabobazina said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
    What are the PB Tories going to do with themselves if the Corbynites lose?

    I suggest some sort of support group!
    More of them should have paid the £25 to get a vote!
    😀
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1222903433591775232?s=20

    Oh for the love of God. Is every Dem in CA on major league opiates and hallucinogenics?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
    Undoubtedly their "model" is simply an exponential fit to the data. Seems irresponsible to share it.
    Agreed. Horrible stuff, probably of little validity, which causes widespread anxiety. Not good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Dems have some kind of weird death wish where they engineer four more years of Trump don't they?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1222903433591775232?s=20

    Oh for the love of God. Is every Dem in CA on major league opiates and hallucinogenics?
    Don't worry, we'll start a PB fundraiser to bail you out if the Bernie surge comes to pass. ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
    It is a pretty ludicrous chart.

    It has taken the current known number of infections and the current known number of deaths and used that fatality rate (3%) to project the 231 million deaths. In fact infection rates will be massively higher than that already so the actually fatality rate as a proportion of infections will be far, far lower.

    It really is the very worst of scaremongering.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Anabobazina said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
    Undoubtedly their "model" is simply an exponential fit to the data. Seems irresponsible to share it.
    Agreed. Horrible stuff, probably of little validity, which causes widespread anxiety. Not good.
    Graph is tailing off a little, I think, according to this:

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Happy independence day everybody.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1222944288830631936?s=20

    Given what voting rights for non citizens are like in many established and grand democracies, EU nationals being able to vote in all cases is not where I'd start when looking for shameful actions to date. I don't mind the idea, but I feel like there's likely much more shameful issues around.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    edited January 2020
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1222903433591775232?s=20

    Oh for the love of God. Is every Dem in CA on major league opiates and hallucinogenics?
    Don't worry, we'll start a PB fundraiser to bail you out if the Bernie surge comes to pass. ;)
    Thanks. But I am far less worried about the money than the world wide chaos of Trump reelected.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    isam said:

    Anabobazina said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    RLB looks to have had a much better night today, albeit that she still trails Starmer even on today's nominations - but by much less than usual.

    All the same, it is daft that the Democrats could well have a nominee* before Labour has a new leader.

    * For practical purposes, if not formally.

    My Labour insider predicted RLB will make a late surge... maybe it’s on
    It's not really a surge when Starmer is still winning more CLPs per day. Surge into a distant second, perhaps.
    I cannot see many Thornberry or Nandy second choices going the way of RLB. Second place will be distant indeed.
    Dare we dream? Are Lab members waking up from the holiday romance with the crinkly old guy in the cap?
    What are the PB Tories going to do with themselves if the Corbynites lose?

    I suggest some sort of support group!
    I’ve been looking at this forum for a decade, and the much mocked ‘PB Tories‘ seem to have won every meaningful election!
    Sure, but when you have to endure several of them boasting about joining the Labour Party to vote for the worst candidate, you are entitled to some come back.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1222944288830631936?s=20

    Given what voting rights for non citizens are like in many established and grand democracies, EU nationals being able to vote in all cases is not where I'd start when looking for shameful actions to date. I don't mind the idea, but I feel like there's likely much more shameful issues around.
    Yeah, it's the norm to link voting in national elections with citizenship.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1222954030118379523?s=20

    QTWTAIN.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1222944288830631936?s=20

    He really is a twat. If they want full voting rights they should become full British citizens. For someone who wanted us to stay in the EU he clearly doesn't want us to follow the example of practically every other EU country when it comes to voting rights.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1223023622085914626?s=20

    Good. Keep it coming guys. History will need a full list of the guilty men and woman.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1222954030118379523?s=20

    If winning good majorities makes you a Blairite.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    3 days ago, I posted this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1221808614878433280?s=09

    I think that we have already passed the Feb 9 projection 10 days early in terms of numbers infected, and will match the number of fatalities for Feb 9 tomorrow. Scary stuff indeed if it hits.

    Past performance is no indication of future success. Every living person infected?
    I think that unlikely, as the model will break down at some point, but we do not know where that point is.
    Seems like scaremongering to post those kind of charts then, doesn't it?
    It certainly scares me!
    It is a pretty ludicrous chart.

    It has taken the current known number of infections and the current known number of deaths and used that fatality rate (3%) to project the 231 million deaths. In fact infection rates will be massively higher than that already so the actually fatality rate as a proportion of infections will be far, far lower.

    It really is the very worst of scaremongering.
    Yes, quite - it’s pissed me off, just seeing it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Night all. I shall be up early tomorrow to prepare the candles.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1223023622085914626?s=20

    Good. Keep it coming guys. History will need a full list of the guilty men and woman.
    History is written by the winners. Your record on this so far is not exactly shining is it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1222954030118379523?s=20

    If winning good majorities makes you a Blairite.
    Well, it certainly doesn't make you a Corbynite.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,088

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1222944288830631936?s=20

    He really is a twat. If they want full voting rights they should become full British citizens. For someone who wanted us to stay in the EU he clearly doesn't want us to follow the example of practically every other EU country when it comes to voting rights.
    Looks like Starmer's natural inclination is to be voter repellant too. What next - a vote for all relatives abroad? Triple-votes for illegal immigrants?

    Go on Nandy, call him out as a pillock who will trash the rest of the Red Wall.....
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    surely Penn is the big one though?

    https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1222928454024224768

    Sanders does better than Biden in Michigan then but no where else v Trump and only Biden looks like putting Arizona and Iowa in play
    Yep. Dems are looking like they want to lose this unless the polling is wrong, which to be honest I think it is.
    Slightly puzzled at the doom and gloom over the Democrats chances, all they have to do is regain Wisconsin, Michigan and any one of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Florida or North Carolina, even Bernie might manage it.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited January 2020
    Looks like Butler will manage to make the ballot. She needs 33 CLPs
    Murray lost 3 Scottish CLPs tonight. Not positive for him

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1223033402657517568?s=20

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    dodrade said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    surely Penn is the big one though?

    https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1222928454024224768

    Sanders does better than Biden in Michigan then but no where else v Trump and only Biden looks like putting Arizona and Iowa in play
    Yep. Dems are looking like they want to lose this unless the polling is wrong, which to be honest I think it is.
    Slightly puzzled at the doom and gloom over the Democrats chances, all they have to do is regain Wisconsin, Michigan and any one of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Florida or North Carolina, even Bernie might manage it.
    Though they might lose Virginia and Nevada and Maine or New Hampshire too with Bernie adding to the hurdle
This discussion has been closed.