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There were a couple of polls out last night, both seeing UKIP score figures they haven’t hit since the summer, after their success in the local elections. I think with Dave talking about the expected immigration from Romania and Bulgaria this week gone, can probably explain UKIP’s increase.
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YouGov on Scotland:
OA (Scotland)
Independence
Support: 27 (31)
Oppose: 50 (57)
How likely?
Likely: 31 (27)
Unlikely: 55 (59)
Better or worse off if Scotland independent:
E&W
Better: 28 (8)
Same: 30 (32)
Worse: 23 (42)
Scotland
Better: 13 (25)
Same: 9 (9)
Worse: 62 (54)
EU:
Reapply to join: 58 (47)
Automatic Member: 21 (35)
England & Wales (Scotland)
Net support for:
Keep getting BBC: -1 (+48)
Keep pound: -5 (+42)
Keep Queen: +17 (+22)
Ban Scots MPs from Westminster votes post referendum: +53 (+44)
Ban Scots Lords ditto: +57 (+39)
Also YouGov vs Year Ago:
Con: 30 (-1)
Lab: 38 (-6)
LibD: 10 (-)
UKIP: 15 (+5)
8 or 10 percent is shocking.
Unfortunately , the data tables for this Yougov poll are complete gibberish .
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The sample consisted of 945 males and 117 females and presumably 700 others of indeterminate sex . .
2010 Lib Dems?
Best YouGov for UKIP since June, and interesting to see how parties have done over p12m:
(vs year ago)
Con: 30 (-1)
Lab: 38 (-6)
LibD: 10 (-)
UKIP: 15 (+5)
Where are UKIP votes coming from? Are they previously Don't Knows?
What would it take for Lib Dems to get off their backsides?
A leader on minus fifty and a popular rating at ten percent or under is oddly not enough.
There is a sharp negative shift on the economy:-17 net on Government handling it well (down 6) and -40 on the state of the economy (also down 6). Not sure if that's the Carney statement or just a sample effect.
1. errrr....
Doesn't sound like there is going to be any blue meat in the autumn statement either - just fuzzy tinkering. We shall see.
The situation in late 80s,90s was very different.
Their are no Blair coat tails to ride upon. Their own leader is mortally wounded.
The Lib Dems are not fighting their first or second election. They are a known quantity with serious political problems to address.
They cannot count on protest votes.
And yet, they do nothing. Its odd.
"Lynton Crosby doing a great job for UKIP"
It looks like it.
Perhaps the Tories should follow Avis's lead. It was clear their generic car advertising was doing more for the market leader Hertz than for themselves so they started the now famous "We're not the biggest so we try harder" and gave their customers a free map!
The campaign was a huge success.
Perhaps Lynton can think of a way of attacking immigrants that makes the Tories sound more brutal. The GO HOME vans round immigrant areas was probably along the right lines
Clegg was one of the key note speakers.
Very little publicity though.....
Of course the new leader will inherit the strategic problems , but with a rating of minus fifty what is clear is that the current leader had no chance whatsoever of solving them.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
"Remember what Hemming and Booker are"
If Booker is part of this then say no more. The man is poisonous to children's welfare and why the Telegraph keep pumping out his nonsense is a complete mystery.
After all, many on PB regard Boris Johnson as a seriou politician and worthy of high office!
Unless the idea is that they're going to bring down the government and cause a snap election (which loses them a lot of the support they still have left) they can't move until late 2014 at the earliest.
EDIT ignore me, I'm hungover and stupid today.
The energy price cut from the government may not be the winner that they need as it only cuts £50 from the £120 that the bills have gone up this year.
The money is supposed to come from clamping down on tax avoidance for the umpteenth time.This along with increased NHS spending to avoid a winter crisis means the government`s deficit reduction is going off-target again.
If there is to be another leader, it needs to be from the next generation. Cable knows this, which is why he has never stood for the leadership. I expect Nick Clegg to retain his position for the forseable future. He may be disliked by some sectors of the voters but he has wider support in the party.
"There's a view which says that Hemming, in asking awkward questions and challenging some sacred cows is performing a useful service."
Hemming said on Radio5 that the police arrested an Italian woman in her hotel room then kept her incarcerated in a mental institution for a month before giving her a caesarian so they could take her baby because the government need to up their adoption figures.
i know nothing about the case other than it's clearly not as set out by John Hemmings. When questioned on the detail he started to talk about other cases and his blog. When asked to stick to this case it was clear he knew nothing.
I do not expect a major electoral benefit from the Conservatives commitment to ringfence the NHS from cuts in 2010, but am increasingly impressed by how the Lansley reforms are working.
Once he starts giving freebies then the deficit reduction meme which is their big advantage over Labour will be blown out of the water.
That's nothing - Darling was out by more than that in a single year in 2008.
Then he cut vat - to er well make it worse.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10486223/Britains-85-billion-bill-for-climate-policies.html
"Vast sums are being spent on initiatives ranging from climate-change officers in local councils to the funding of “low carbon” agriculture in Colombia at a cost of £15 million alone. "
That said, if the polls are correct, the debate may start to become much more focused on what happens once No formally wins. That may represent a chance for the SNP's best chance - if No voters stay at home because they don't feel the need to go to the polls, a highly motivated Yes vote could sneak through.
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New ARSE 2015 General Election Projection to be issued exclusively on PB on Tuesday at 9:00am
The news is even better than the headline PSNB figures suggest. The figure to focus on is Central Government Net Cash Requirement. As reported in the most recent ONS Public Finances Bulletin this is:
In October 2013, central government net cash requirement (CGNCR) was £-7.7 billion, which was £10.5 billion, or 378.8%, lower than in October 2012, when there was a CGNCR of £2.8 billion.
For the period April 2013 to October 2013, CGNCR was £32.0 billion, which was £22.8 billion, or 41.7%, lower than in the same period the previous year, when there was a CGNCR of £54.8 billion.
The CGNCR is the key metric which determines the Debt Management Office's schedule of Gilt Issuance: in other words actual amounts the government is borrowing and paying interest to service.
The Autumn Statement traditionally contains a mid fiscal year revision to the DMO's financing remit. In 2012, the DMO's remit for the remainder of the 2012-13 year was to reduce gilt issuance planned in the 2012 budget by £15 bn. This year the reduction is likely to be significantly greater.
More than any other figure in the Autumn Statement and accompanying OBR EFO update, the CGNCR and DMO remit revision will tell us what St George is planning for 2014. Effectively the amount he reduces actual borrowing will tell us how generous he is planning to be in the run-up to the GE.
Paradoxically this may be also because some of our negotiators used to work for primary care and vice versa. They have retained their insights into the other sides issues. Making people redundant and then them being re-employed in another part of the NHS may be part of the change in atmosphere.
But I am not sure whether Jeremy Hunt understands Lansley`s reforms,so it`ll be interesting to see whether he`s able to cope when trouble starts.
It is interesting to see that Scots may not be as leftwing as supposed. If Scots workers do not want to pay for Scots on welfare, there may well be a shift to the right politically after independence. I suspect that the problem for Scots is that both Tories and UKIP are seen as English parties, giving patriotic but right wing Scots little choice of who to vote for.
It depends on the attitudes of the people on the dole.
If Scotland were independant, I will have a better chance of getting a job.
If Scotland were independant, I will receive increased benefits.
Which one is it?
The March 2013 budget fixed the Central Government Net Cash Requirement at £102.4 bn for this fiscal year. To date this figure has been massively undershot: it is only £32.0 bn after seven months with an improving underlying fiscal position (revenues higher and expenses lower than budget and the gap increasing).
The actual "cash" George has in his pocket is really quite significant. That is why the amount he reduces real borrowing in the Autumn Statement is so important for telling us what goodies we are likely to get before the election.
EDIT: Whilst I am very right wing I find it very poor taste when people mock the poor , unemployed etc. Not directing this at you but at clowns like Maaarsh , SeanT etc. One day they may have issues themselves and will not be so smug ar**s.
I do not expect this to change in the near future, but where are the disasters that were predicted for the Lansley reforms?
malcolmg is right that there was a very noticeable wobble among anti-independence posters here a couple of weeks ago, when everyone started talking what-ifs. But the position reminds me of the 1975 EEC referendum, when the outcome was clear for ages but Tony Benn and others kept saying there was a big movement not being picked up by the polls. There wasn't.
Supposing these polls to be close to the outcome, I wonder if it will bury Devomax as well? If the result is 51-49 against independence, there will presumably be a definite feeling that we need to devolve more to meet the feeling halfway. If it's more like 60-40 or 65-35, probably the feeling will be that we just carry on as before.
An article on what a No will do to the SNP would be interesting. There have been vague suggestions that it might lead to a collapse in morale (which seems to me more likely) or a surge in support (on the basis that if Scotland isn't independent it still needs doughty defenders who act as though it were). It's hard to think up realistic polling questions that anticipate it, though.
The key will be to come up with some popular tax cut that would benefit swing voters, and pull the rug from under Ed Balls.
Personally, I would recommend substantial cuts in National Insurance, both employers and employees. It is probably worth keeping as a fairly nominal rate, so entitlement to contributory benefits can be maintained and expanded.
Why not pull the plug on the Coalition in the autumn in the hope of some sort of anti-Tory dividend? They have nothing left to lose.
Uninspiring polling for the Coalition parties this morning with the Conservatives back at their early summer levels. Plenty of economic cards still to play and the second will be the Autumn Statement (after the statement on energy bills this morning). The Government has two Budgets and two winters left.
I'm left to wonder whether economic "goodies" will be enough to tempt some of the UKIP strays back to the Conservative flock - you'd think not given what we know why UKIP supporters are what they are. That said, we also know that the first whiff of electoral gunpowder may also be a huge recruiting tool and where I've seen polls suggesting 40% of UKIP supporters prefer a Conservative Government to a Labour Government, that is also significant.
It was the same with the LD support in the 80s - locally, between elections, yes, they'd support you but as it got closer to the GE, that support ran back to the Conservative side often with the first Tory "attack" poster. The UKIP vote may be built on different ground - we'll see.
Take 40% off the UKIP side and add it to the Conservative vote and that's how I read every poll just as in the 80s, you could take a third off the mid term LD figure and add it to the Conservative side.
With the UKIP "bonus" YouGov cuts Labour's lead to 2%.
Plenty to play for and a long way to go.
Another sunday...
Spurs playing a Manchester team....
TSE betting on Spurs...
this can only go so well....