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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Davey slips to his lowest level yet in the LD leadership betti

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I get why some like RLB, but Burgon I don’t understand, no way, not in a million years.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    nico67 said:

    Very good of the EU to release details of the protocol for Northern Ireland explaining clearly what’s happening with the checks .

    Bozo still lying saying there won’t be any checks . He could tell Leavers the earth is flat and they’d believe him !

    Have you got a link?

    TIA.
  • Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited January 2020
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.
  • ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.
    You voted Swinson??
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
    There's no use denying now that you're the man at that centre. Mr Paper Plane can't escape now. Own up - you've folded paper!

    Bastard! How you toyed with all of our lives with your paper folding will forever haunt you!

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Someone who voted Remain and is still a member of the Conservatives.

    No longer a member. He resigned in disgust at "Boris". Politically homeless now.
    😔
  • Omnium said:

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
    There's no use denying now that you're the man at that centre. Mr Paper Plane can't escape now. Own up - you've folded paper!

    Bastard! How you toyed with all of our lives with your paper folding will forever haunt you!

    I thought I was famous on PB for being obsessed with finding young Skywalker "doing" the British railway network?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.
    You voted Swinson??
    No, as it happens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Omnium said:

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
    There's no use denying now that you're the man at that centre. Mr Paper Plane can't escape now. Own up - you've folded paper!

    Bastard! How you toyed with all of our lives with your paper folding will forever haunt you!

    I thought I was famous on PB for being obsessed with finding young Skywalker "doing" the British railway network?
    You appear to want the Woodhead line reopened, judging by past posts...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Omnium said:

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
    There's no use denying now that you're the man at that centre. Mr Paper Plane can't escape now. Own up - you've folded paper!

    Bastard! How you toyed with all of our lives with your paper folding will forever haunt you!

    I thought I was famous on PB for being obsessed with finding young Skywalker "doing" the British railway network?
    A matter for the courts now. I think you'll be lucky to escape the new anti-paper-folding regime.

    It'll just be life for you.

    (You're mainly famous on pb for being a good egg. All the train knowledge just adds colour. )
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,294
    Jonathan said:

    I get why some like RLB, but Burgon I don’t understand, no way, not in a million years.

    Given that this is a person who thinks "Zionism is an enemy of peace", it doesn't take much to work out who exactly his supporters are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.
    You voted Swinson??
    No, as it happens.
    Farage??
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    ydoethur said:

    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.

    But you're quite unusual. You're a highly partisan raging centrist. Totally wedded to those principles almost as if it were a religion. Not an insult btw. It's a very respectable thing to be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Not really. It’s entirely possible the panic has already caused more deaths through unnecessarily clogging medical services than will be caused by the virus itself.

    I’m just baffled at the total lack of perspective.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Yeah, the experts seem to be confident that this won't be the next pandemic, but only because it's been handled well so far. The lesson is definitely not that we shouldn't take these things seriously.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.

    But you're quite unusual. You're a highly partisan raging centrist. Totally wedded to those principles almost as if it were a religion. Not an insult btw. It's a very respectable thing to be.
    :lol: That’s brilliant. Can I print it on a T-Shirt?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Watching the Impeachment trial it seems bizarre how the American concept of monarchy seems stuck in the 18th century. Do they think the Queen holds absolute power in the UK?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited January 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    There is not enough alcohol in the world to make me vote for either Johnson or Corbyn.
    You voted Swinson??
    No, as it happens.
    Farage??
    I went to the polling station, got my ballot paper, scribbled comments about racists, fascists and tax evaders next to the relevant candidates, then tore it up and posted it into the ballot box.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    dodrade said:

    Watching the Impeachment trial it seems bizarre how the American concept of monarchy seems stuck in the 18th century. Do they think the Queen holds absolute power in the UK?

    I think she in fact does.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    The main issue is it's relatively infectious. The more it spreads the higher the chance it will mutate into a more severe form.

    Zombification is somewhat unlikely though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    ydoethur said:

    That’s brilliant. Can I print it on a T-Shirt?

    ☺ Of course!

    And I'll wear my "Hard Left Social Democrat" one and we can hit the town together.

    See what happens.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s brilliant. Can I print it on a T-Shirt?

    ☺ Of course!

    And I'll wear my "Hard Left Social Democrat" one and we can hit the town together.

    See what happens.
    We will paint the town red, then blue, then yellow...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    How do we know? These viruses mutate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited January 2020

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Oh no, I am distraught - clearly since I began by referencing a zombie apocalypse novel there was rigorous analysis at play. Of course I don't know how epidemics work. But I also never disagreed that the media reaction has been over the top, I just don't know that media overreactions matter. If they do, then fine, how do we get the media not to overract to things? You can get the nobel prize for that knowledge, I am sure.
  • ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    Is it as riveting as test cricket?
    how far are the paper planes going?
    Paper planes???
    There's no use denying now that you're the man at that centre. Mr Paper Plane can't escape now. Own up - you've folded paper!

    Bastard! How you toyed with all of our lives with your paper folding will forever haunt you!

    I thought I was famous on PB for being obsessed with finding young Skywalker "doing" the British railway network?
    You appear to want the Woodhead line reopened, judging by past posts...
    Woodhead line? No, that's TSE's neck of the woods.
  • Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    It would have been possible to say the same thing about 102 years ago, and to have had second thoughts about it about 99 years ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    The main issue is it's relatively infectious. The more it spreads the higher the chance it will mutate into a more severe form.

    Zombification is somewhat unlikely though.
    The thing with a modern virus is massive air travel. Within a few days it is all over the planet. The Black Death, for example, relied on ships.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Newsnight leading on the virus.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220832903329931267

    300! Bloody hell.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    The main issue is it's relatively infectious. The more it spreads the higher the chance it will mutate into a more severe form.

    Zombification is somewhat unlikely though.
    The other issue is trusting the Chinese numbers coming out. Their shutting down cities suggests that there may be some far bigger infection/death numbers being admitted in a few days. Essentially, what the Chinese are admitting today is perhaps a week old tally. They now know it is much worse......
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    In fairness, when I joined the Labour party last month, I wasn't expecting to get a vote in the leadership contest. It was a pleasant surprise to learn that I would, but they'd have been reasonable to require membership for a certain period. My main concern now is that new members might be regarded with understandable suspicion by their CLPs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having has a drunken think about it, I think if I were a democrat I'd vote for Bernie. The US has enough checks and balances that he wouldn't be an effective elected dictator and he seems to be the only democrat that stands for something other than not losing.

    So yeah Bernie, you'd have my vote.

    Interesting to model how election results would differ if everyone voted while drunk. More spoiled ballots, obviously, but perhaps other effects too. My sense is it would hurt the Liberal Democrats.
    My assumption was that most drunken voters were for the LibDems.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,294

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    Len - as expected - made a stupid decision in nominating RLB today. He should have made a deal with Nandy. Instead, he'll now be ignored by Starmer and Rayner for the next four years.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    It is always right to cancel a school trip to Manchester. No pretext needs to be advanced. Take them to a forest and introduce them to the concept that mighty oaks from little acorns grow, or give them an extra maths lesson about exponentials.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    My father saw Chinese students wearing face masks in our local town this afternoon.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    That does sound very over-the-top based on what's happening elsewhere. Of course, I don't know whether that's someone in your LEA/school over-reacting or whether there's some evidence-based advice underlying it.

    I mean, if it were a trip to Manchester Airport, coinciding with an arrival from China….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    IshmaelZ said:

    give them an extra maths lesson about exponentials.

    Blimey. You must really hate Manchester if you think that’s an improvement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edited January 2020
    Newsnight now on, about surging Lab membership
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    So was most of building the Titanic.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Len thinks Beccy is the one.

    I am shocked.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    It is always right to cancel a school trip to Manchester. No pretext needs to be advanced. Take them to a forest and introduce them to the concept that mighty oaks from little acorns grow, or give them an extra maths lesson about exponentials.
    Trafford Centre branch of the Metrolink network scheduled to open in April.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Just been watching the Senate impeachment trial live. Its riveting.

    So was most of building the Titanic.......
    The rivets were fine, but all the slags were a problem.

    Good night.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edited January 2020
    Why are UNITE members so completely out of touch with ordinary Labour voters?

    The union needs to think about that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    give them an extra maths lesson about exponentials.

    Blimey. You must really hate Manchester if you think that’s an improvement.
    It would help them understand how you get from 28 deaths to 100 million.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    St Pancras, up 1000 new members
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    Perhaps there are new members. .... However, I would be cautious, as the actual evidence in the public domain for new members seems small. Would not Nick Palmer know about this ... or BigJohnOwls ... or Jonathan ?

    There are anonymous briefings from unattributable sources .... but if you are willing to accept that as evidence, then I have some dodgy oil stock to sell you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    Perhaps there are new members. .... However, I would be cautious, as the actual evidence in the public domain for new members seems small. Would not Nick Palmer know about this ... or BigJohnOwls ... or Jonathan ?

    There are anonymous briefings from unattributable sources .... but if you are willing to accept that as evidence, then I have some dodgy oil stock to sell you.
    Thanks, but last week I bought a bridge, so I am skint.
  • St Pancras, up 1000 new members

    My member always stands up when I think about St Pancras...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    Len - as expected - made a stupid decision in nominating RLB today. He should have made a deal with Nandy. Instead, he'll now be ignored by Starmer and Rayner for the next four years.
    He claims it was all down to the union executive who are looked at each candidate carefully.

    Why is UNITE so out of touch with the membership and other unions?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    The UNITE gravestone will read:

    "The union will also back Richard Burgon for the vacant deputy leader post."
  • ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    My father saw Chinese students wearing face masks in our local town this afternoon.
    You can see Chinese students wearing face masks almost any day of the year. Its not exceptional to see Chinese wearing face masks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    St Pancras, up 1000 new members

    My member always stands up when I think about St Pancras...
    Really?

    "Saint Pancras (Latin: Sanctus Pancratius) was a Roman citizen who converted to Christianity, and was beheaded for his faith at the age of fourteen, around the year 304. His name is Greek (Παγκράτιος) and means "the one that holds everything"."
  • St Pancras, up 1000 new members

    My member always stands up when I think about St Pancras...
    Really?

    "Saint Pancras (Latin: Sanctus Pancratius) was a Roman citizen who converted to Christianity, and was beheaded for his faith at the age of fourteen, around the year 304. His name is Greek (Παγκράτιος) and means "the one that holds everything"."
    I was thinking more about the 1868 train shed...
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    Perhaps there are new members. .... However, I would be cautious, as the actual evidence in the public domain for new members seems small. Would not Nick Palmer know about this ... or BigJohnOwls ... or Jonathan ?

    There are anonymous briefings from unattributable sources .... but if you are willing to accept that as evidence, then I have some dodgy oil stock to sell you.
    I was told by my constituency contact that I was one of about 50 new members in my CLP. Make of that what you will.

    However, don't assume that all CLP attendees would be aware of this. At the meeting I attended, which was a meeting of 3 CLPs, there were four new members present, so it's clear that most of them did not attend the meeting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    St Pancras, up 1000 new members

    My member always stands up when I think about St Pancras...
    Really?

    "Saint Pancras (Latin: Sanctus Pancratius) was a Roman citizen who converted to Christianity, and was beheaded for his faith at the age of fourteen, around the year 304. His name is Greek (Παγκράτιος) and means "the one that holds everything"."
    I was thinking more about the 1868 train shed...
    You say that now.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1220765260803649541

    I am going to die laughing if Nandy wins this.
  • Jonathan said:

    I get why some like RLB, but Burgon I don’t understand, no way, not in a million years.

    You lost me in the first half of that sentence...
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    I don't know. A lot could be lapsed members who originally joined for Corbyn and drifted away over the years.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    My father saw Chinese students wearing face masks in our local town this afternoon.
    You can see Chinese students wearing face masks almost any day of the year. Its not exceptional to see Chinese wearing face masks.
    I saw some in London today
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Gabs3 said:

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    I don't know. A lot could be lapsed members who originally joined for Corbyn and drifted away over the years.
    Could be, but I don't think. But DYOR.
  • Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    My father saw Chinese students wearing face masks in our local town this afternoon.
    You can see Chinese students wearing face masks almost any day of the year. Its not exceptional to see Chinese wearing face masks.
    I saw some in London today
    I see some in Manchester almost every time I go to the Trafford Centre.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    Health and safety innit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Gabs3 said:

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    I don't know. A lot could be lapsed members who originally joined for Corbyn and drifted away over the years.
    Yeh, they lapsed and who can blame them, because Corbyn wasn't left wing enough, or anti-semite enough, or interested sufficiently in a trade deal with Cuba.
  • Mind you, it's a low blow that the Labour party seems to be becoming sane again. What are they thinking of? Some of us have bet heavily on them remaining bonkers.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    My father saw Chinese students wearing face masks in our local town this afternoon.
    You can see Chinese students wearing face masks almost any day of the year. Its not exceptional to see Chinese wearing face masks.
    I saw some in London today
    I see some in Manchester almost every time I go to the Trafford Centre.
    Thinking about it I sometimes see non Chinese people with face masks in London too - especially riding bikes
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Gabs3 said:

    I am laying RBL based on these new member numbers. No way are people flooding to Lab to vote for continuity Corbyn/Milne anti-semite clown car.

    I don't know. A lot could be lapsed members who originally joined for Corbyn and drifted away over the years.
    Yeh, they lapsed and who can blame them, because Corbyn wasn't left wing enough, or anti-semite enough, or interested sufficiently in a trade deal with Cuba.
    I don't know but it's possible they are very left wing (hence joining for Corbyn), but just not very politically involved. They signed up to vote for him and once he was in didn't bother renewing because they were happy with him as leader. Now they see a moderate in Starmer who will aim to drag them back to the centre and are joining again to keep the Left in charge.

    I am not saying this IS the case, but its plausible to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    ydoethur said:

    kicorse said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium.

    Build a wall all around France.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1220789075369656320

    With an outbreak of a disease in China that is now spreading around the world, it was probably the wrong day for me to read World War Z earlier...
    I must be missing something here. 28 people have died and a few thousand infected, and we all behave like headless chickens! WTF is going on? More people will have died today choking on bread than of this new virus yet nothing seems to be going on about that.
    People always worry about something being the next great pandemic. I suppose better to vigilant.
    Clearly you two don't understand how epidemics work.
    Well, Spanish Flu or the Black Death it ain’t.
    (a) You cannot conclude that from the figures you have quoted. Both of those started small.

    (b) The small number of deaths is likely a consequence of people taking it seriously, not evidence that they are wrong to take it seriously.
    Alright, so tell me this. Is it right that a school trip at my school to Manchester has been cancelled because of this virus?

    And no, I have not made that up.
    Probably an overreaction, but Manchester does have more Chinese students than any other UK university, I think, and it’s almost certain several will have travelled back from the affected region in the last week or so.

    (And the UK has just about as many Chinese students as the rest of Europe.)

    We’ll probably know within a couple of weeks how just serious this outbreak is likely to be.
    When was your trip to have been ?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    kicorse said:

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    In fairness, when I joined the Labour party last month, I wasn't expecting to get a vote in the leadership contest. It was a pleasant surprise to learn that I would, but they'd have been reasonable to require membership for a certain period. My main concern now is that new members might be regarded with understandable suspicion by their CLPs.
    Stick with the comrades who have been members for more than the past 4 years and you should be OK.

    If some SWP loon calls you an entryist, just laugh in their face.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    Newsnight leading on the virus.

    Momentum? We might be close to an antidote.
  • Tory version of Owen Jones on SKY paper review
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    The UNITE gravestone will read:

    "The union will also back Richard Burgon for the vacant deputy leader post."

    Burgon is ideal to be a vacant deputy leader
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Mind you, it's a low blow that the Labour party seems to be becoming sane again. What are they thinking of? Some of us have bet heavily on them remaining bonkers.

    You have to keep things in perspective. There's bonkers and there's stark staring beyond hope bonkers. I've bet on RLB too, so bonkers might be a winner?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    The UNITE gravestone will read:

    "The union will also back Richard Burgon for the vacant deputy leader post."

    Burgon is ideal to be a vacant deputy leader
    He's over qualified
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    Much of the Blue Wall is now gone for Labour anyway, maybe for a generation, Labour would win Watford, Chipping Barnet, Reading West, Chingford and Woodford Green, Hastings and Rye, Wycombe, Hendon, Milton Keynes North and Milton Keynes South, even Rushcliffe and Worthing East and Shoreham on UNS at the next election before they took Penistone and Stockbridge, Ashfield, Scunthorpe, Bishop Auckland and Great Grimsby.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    FF43 said:

    Toby Young really isn't worth the time we spend on him. But for some reason we do. He's stupid, offensive, and no wit to redeem his lack of any other quality.

    HYUFD said:
    How could a decent human being like Michael Young spawn such an odious offspring?
    He hasn't been punched in the face enough. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not advocating that he be hit in the face. My reference is to the Mike Tyson quote. Toby Young has led an extraordinarily indulged life: his university place, first home, and job progression were courtesy of help from his friends and relatives (particularly his father) that were considerably greater than the norm. As a result he has never acquired the rudiments of politeness that is necessary to work alongside other people, nor the empathy that results from suffering. Such children become spoilt unpleasant adults and it disfigures the Right that they count such warped children amongst their number.
  • viewcode said:

    FF43 said:

    Toby Young really isn't worth the time we spend on him. But for some reason we do. He's stupid, offensive, and no wit to redeem his lack of any other quality.

    HYUFD said:
    How could a decent human being like Michael Young spawn such an odious offspring?
    He hasn't been punched in the face enough. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not advocating that he be hit in the face. My reference is to the Mike Tyson quote. Toby Young has led an extraordinarily indulged life: his university place, first home, and job progression were courtesy of help from his friends and relatives (particularly his father) that were considerably greater than the norm. As a result he has never acquired the rudiments of politeness that is necessary to work alongside other people, nor the empathy that results from suffering. Such children become spoilt unpleasant adults and it disfigures the Right that they count such warped children amongst their number.
    u iz been razist to white menz
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium. Build a wall all around France.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR_TQZjMCbo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBWC2p_T738


    (Doomsday is a spiritual successor to EFNY)

  • novanova Posts: 692
    HYUFD said:

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    Much of the Blue Wall is now gone for Labour anyway, maybe for a generation, Labour would win Watford, Chipping Barnet, Reading West, Chingford and Woodford Green, Hastings and Rye, Wycombe, Hendon, Milton Keynes North and Milton Keynes South, even Rushcliffe and Worthing East and Shoreham on UNS at the next election before they took Penistone and Stockbridge, Ashfield, Scunthorpe, Bishop Auckland and Great Grimsby.
    That chart from electoral calculus, showing the vote churn between parties suggests otherwise.

    For every Labour voter that went to the Tories, one went to the Lib Dems and two didn't vote this time.

    When you consider the effect of Corbyn's total unpopularity unwinding, that Blue Wall may well be a lot shakier than you suggest. Labour don't need 6% of Tories to change their vote - they mostly need the Labour voters who didn't vote Tory, didn't vote, and a small Tory swing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    nova said:

    HYUFD said:

    Soon there'll be more Labour members than voters...

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1220828616377950211

    Interesting! Can believe that people have decided to join to make a stand. Which reinforces my belief that they will find some way to bend the rules so that only the chosen ones are eligible. Why do I think that? The Labour candidate up here for Tees Valley Mayor was imposed on a shortlist of one after other candidates mysteriously ruled ineligible.

    Starmer is the least worst option for Labour. But a charisma bypass lawyer representing London isn't the person to defeat Johnson in the Blue Wall seats...
    Much of the Blue Wall is now gone for Labour anyway, maybe for a generation, Labour would win Watford, Chipping Barnet, Reading West, Chingford and Woodford Green, Hastings and Rye, Wycombe, Hendon, Milton Keynes North and Milton Keynes South, even Rushcliffe and Worthing East and Shoreham on UNS at the next election before they took Penistone and Stockbridge, Ashfield, Scunthorpe, Bishop Auckland and Great Grimsby.
    That chart from electoral calculus, showing the vote churn between parties suggests otherwise.

    For every Labour voter that went to the Tories, one went to the Lib Dems and two didn't vote this time.

    When you consider the effect of Corbyn's total unpopularity unwinding, that Blue Wall may well be a lot shakier than you suggest. Labour don't need 6% of Tories to change their vote - they mostly need the Labour voters who didn't vote Tory, didn't vote, and a small Tory swing.
    Labour to Tory switchers in the bluewall cast a positive vote for Brexit and for Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote, they are unlikely to switch back whoever the Labour Leader is and are ideological Leavers.

    Tory Remainers in London and the South who voted Tory in 2017 and 2019 did so mainly to keep Corbyn out, they might on the other hand consider a Starmer led Labour Party or the LDs with the threat of Corbyn removed, as might Remainers who went from Labour to LD.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127
    In one of the few cases I have ever agreed with Trump, check this baby out:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1220821545746141187
  • viewcode said:

    FF43 said:

    Toby Young really isn't worth the time we spend on him. But for some reason we do. He's stupid, offensive, and no wit to redeem his lack of any other quality.

    HYUFD said:
    How could a decent human being like Michael Young spawn such an odious offspring?
    He hasn't been punched in the face enough. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not advocating that he be hit in the face. My reference is to the Mike Tyson quote. Toby Young has led an extraordinarily indulged life: his university place, first home, and job progression were courtesy of help from his friends and relatives (particularly his father) that were considerably greater than the norm. As a result he has never acquired the rudiments of politeness that is necessary to work alongside other people, nor the empathy that results from suffering. Such children become spoilt unpleasant adults and it disfigures the Right that they count such warped children amongst their number.
    u iz been razist to white menz
    dey is ignorant people
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    viewcode said:

    In one of the few cases I have ever agreed with Trump, check this baby out:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1220821545746141187

    It's the eighth branch. I assume he's so fucking ignorant he doesn't know about the PHSCC and and NOAA.
  • viewcode said:

    Time to quarantine France for a millennium. Build a wall all around France.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBWC2p_T738


    (Doomsday is a spiritual successor to EFNY)

    As Snake pilots the glider into the city, three screens on his control panel display wireframe animations of the landing target on the World Trade Center and surrounding buildings. Carpenter wanted high-tech computer graphics, which were very expensive, even for such a simple animation. The effects crew filmed the miniature model set of New York City they used for other scenes under black light, with reflective tape placed along every edge of the model buildings. Only the tape is visible and appears to be a three-dimensional wireframe animation.[18][19]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_from_New_York
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