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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 49 CLPs now having decided just under two thirds are going to Starmer
After what has been the biggest night so far of CLP meetings the overall picture is looking broadly the same and the big outstanding question is whether the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry will make the cut.
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The real action right now is for Deputy Leader, where it’s becoming increasingly hard to see anyone other than Rayner making the ballot without some kind of stitch up.
Interesting stat.
Mr. L, I'm not sure Thornberry would be the asset some think. If I were trying to win back disaffected Northerners then she wouldn't be my pick.
Starmer stands a better chance, in that regard.
The first Emerson College National Poll of 2020 finds two clear front runners competing for the Democratic nomination. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads with 30%, followed closely by Senator Bernie Sanders at 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren comes in third at 13%, followed by Andrew Yang at 8%, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 7%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6%. Data collected January 21-23, 2020, n=497 +/- 4.1%.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination
2% of Danish Jews were killed
13% of Italian Jews were killed
21% of Estonian
22% of French
34% of Romanain
90% of Polish"
The country with the fascinating story regarding the Holocaust is Bulgaria. It started the war with 50,000 Jews. Despite being an Axis country, it ended the war with 50,000 Jews. Entirely down to the efforts of King Boris, who played a cunning game of chess with Hitler. He was ordered to send them to the death camps, but delayed and delayed and then delayed some more - then he moved them all out into the countryside.
He won in that he saved their lives. He lost in that he was poisoned - probably with snake venom - on the orders of Hitler.
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2012/06/the-phoney-outrage-of-emily-thornberry-slime-factories-on-overtime.html
He has been quite complimentary to her in later articles
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/09/why-im-sort-of-slightly-sympathetic-towards-emily-thornberry.html
I grew up in Solihull.
Main EU Parliament plenary vote on Wednesday, and then the European Council ratify on Thursday.
The A50 process is then complete and we leave fully and legally at 11pm next Friday.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200123IPR70904/brexit-the-withdrawal-agreement-passes-the-first-european-parliament-test
Strange country in some ways; went there in 1984 as part of a 'sort of' official group. The first week at each reception, and they were daily, we were served 'our delicious fruits'; strawberries. The second week it was cherries.
As a story, it does rather leave Schindler's List in the shade.
1. Stop splits and unite Labour
2. Be an interesting and effective LoO maintaining interest for five long years
3. Build a coalition to get Labour safely over 40% and start to regularly win elections
4. Be a credible PM candidate when the time comes.
Challenging, but doable. I reckon (2) is the hardest. Thornberry might be good at that.
He will be Labour's William Hague. Roundly beating Blair at PMQs. With no electoral effect at all.
King Simeon became PM for a few years in the noughties (and got Bulgaria into the EU) but fell from power at the next election, partly due to vested interests in Bulgaria which he was challenging. It’s a corrupt country, sadly, and that really holds it back.
Lots of fruit there. They also grow a lot of roses. It was the Roman province of “Thrace” and used to be quite a wealthy one.
Now, it’s more like a very affordable Spain. Although, you can’t get a good steak there you can get delicious salads, pork, lamb and wine for a pittance. Same with spa treatments and spa resorts. Younger generation speak fluent English and will be delighted to see (non lager lout) Brits, which means avoiding Sunny Beach and the Black Sea resorts. Instead, try Bansko for skiing or Plovdiv (excellent Roman ruins, including an intact original amphitheatre) or Sofia for a city break. Older generation will speak Russian, but little or no English, and be more circumspect about the West, although curious about the UK.
Both are very moderately but consistently respectful of religious traditions through the Bulgarian Orthodox Church in a “CofE” type way.
She heard "Colonel".
We can all start the day knowing we have had Colonel knowledge of Emily Thornberry.....
Blair wasn't honest either, though.
Should add Blair was much better at PMQs than Johnson is based on this week's showing
Boris can still beat Starmer but assuming no effort will be required is dangerously complacent, especially as the Tories will soon be over 10 years in power
On topic, we had our monthly CLP meeting last night (the nomination meeting is not till Feb 4) for an election post-mortem. Lots of new members taking part, and an amicable atmosphere. General agreement on the causes of defeat (Corbyn's reputation, Brexit, lack of clear Labour theme, lack of cheery optimism), a variety of views on what was needed, from more centrism (appeal to the insecure middle class) to more focused socialism (a couple of key themes, not a dozen). Nobody expressed a clear preference or aversion on leadership candidates. I suspect we'll end up with a Starmer or Nandy nomination, with RLB getting a third of the vote, but I'm guessing.
Good analysis by Polly today - I absolutely recognise her description much of the electorate - the soaraway wealthy, the preoccupied middle, the non-voting very poor.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/23/boris-johnson-poverty-voters-pmqs-child-poverty-benefits
In short, certainly the accusation of being bullied is not proof it is so. But it happens and is never necessary. We all know stern or tough people who did not and so not bully. Same reasons teachers dont need to cane kids - they can control matters without it, theres no need for it.
Edit: and I say that as someone critical of overuse of the term bullying especially in partisan reporting of media questioning of politicians. Eg tough interviewers bullying candidates
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51231047
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1220509886771007488?s=20
Rent a flat above a shop,
Cut your hair and get a job,
Smoke some fags and play some pool,
Pretend you never went to school.
Enjoy your last full Friday in the EU.....
For them London is an ideal location, great links to the US and a place senior management like going to.
There are also social/market trends creating a level of poverty, or at least making it much harder. I find it hard to keep up (in my 30s) with the almost compulsory technological innovations banks and utility providers make on their services and billing, which seem to change every 18 months and get ever more digital and smartphone “appy” with the passwords ever more fiendishly complicated.
God knows how the elderly cope.