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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer edges up further in new YouGov leadership poll
New Labour leadership polling for @thetimes
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https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1218226185475448832
Excellent news.
YouGov have a good track record of polling party members. The only real caveat about their earlier poll was that it came so early in the contest. This one comes after the candidates are known and have had a fair bit of exposure.
The Survation poll, by contrast, is far more suspect. It is a poll of Labour Party members who happen to have registered as such on the Labour List website (I think to get regular e-mail updates etc.). So it was quite self-selecting and probably skewed towards an activist base. By far the strongest correlation was with which candidate was supported in 2016 e.g. of RLB 1st preferences, 66% supported Corbyn in 2016, 2% Smith. Yet of those in the sample who voted in 2016, 66% favoured Corbyn compared to an actual result of 61.8%.
Odds of 4/6 on Starmer no longer available with Ladbrokes.
-£259!!!
That’s two Labour leadership candidates who’ve put a question mark over it now. Even Jeremy Corbyn (although he didn’t sing the national anthem) didn’t do that.
If I were the palace or the government I’d be really concerned about this.
If support for the monarchy starts to become politicised down values lines then it could be in serious trouble. It won’t take much more bad behaviour for a question mark over the whole institution to gather a head of steam.
The Queen understands this - and it explains why she’s moving heaven and earth to pacify Meghan Markle, who’s a loaded bomb who’s threatened to self-detonate - but I’m note sure other members of her family do, or if they do they’re far too careless about it.
This is good news, for Labour, as RLB would have been IDS
Money on RLB is money wasted.
I’ve spoken to a few Brexiteer friends who voted Con in the GE just gone in seats like Washington and Sunderland South and North West Durham and they like Keir Starmer.
The big problem for RLB is even if she was pretty close in the first round she will never see enough support moving over from the candidates who have been knocked out .
RLB Shadow Justice.
Nandy Shadow Home Sec.
Thornberry stays as Shadow Foreign Sec.
Harry and Meghan need to be reconciled.
This is the most perilous time for the monarchy since Diana’s death. It’s possibly worse, with two hideous crises: Meghan and Andrew: at once. Add in the death of the Queen in the near future, and the much less popular Charles taking the throne? Eeeek
Luckily Kate is an absolute treasure. Impeccable. Beautiful. Loyal. Not a foot wrong. She will make a great queen, given a chance, Grand daughter of a coal miner, god bless her. William chose well.
It’s only made me more Brexity.
Mark Carney is right. We do not want to endure their terrible regulation. It will be painful but we are better off self governing, and exploiting the EU’s many flaws.
The only way the next LotO isn't Keith Stormer would require footage of him clearly aroused, stomping on kittens in an under-sized kimono.....
In practice, Starmer will do his best to unite the party, so he won't do anything as provocative as that.
That’s how Starmer plays chez Byronic. Starmer is a ship steadier. He will reunite a neurotic and divided party. He will quietly whack the Marxists, but still be “radical”
The Labour leader after him will be the next Labour PM. The Opposition is slowly returning to sanity. Good.
Meghan has basically threatened to go on the record accusing the royal family of being sexist and racist. If she does that, she will be believed by many. And the effect won’t be neutral, going back to how things were five years ago.
Rather than being the asset she was seen to be in 2018 as modernising and broadening the appeal of the Royal Family in an increasingly diverse Britain she’d risk actively turning a chunk of the country against them.
You asked what to do with £40k. You have bought a new house so I don't know if it is a bad time to suggest it, but in normal circs I would think about converting the attic to another bedroom. If you can get it done within budget and you get a proper job done (structural engineer, new staircase, etc) it makes a real difference. However I must emphasise it has to be a proper job. Bodge it and you can easily destroy the house: I've seen it happen.
They’ve bent over backwards to help Meghan and Harry fit in.
While not a surprise that Ms Long Bailey is backed by those who approved of Mr Corbyn’s four years in charge of the Labour Party, the scale is still startling. A full 97 per cent of those backing the shadow business secretary say that Mr Corbyn performed very or fairly well as leader. The equivalent figure for Mr Starmer is 36 per cent, with 62 per cent believing that Mr Corbyn performed badly.
AI will almost certainly drive to greater data regulation. I think the UK will want to be in a silo. It might just choose the US silo rather than the EU one. Problem though is the EU should be a bigger market for the UK generally than the US and the US can be at least as protectionist as the EU.
Maybe one for 5-10 years once our family expands?
It is not impossible however to imagine Starmer becoming PM after the next general election in coalition with the Les if, as this poll suggests, he does win the Labour membership vote. It is hard to see how RLB could beat Boris however, Remain voting Tories might consider Starmer in a way they did not Corbyn and would not Long Bailey and they also would be more likely to risk voting LD.
Tories should avoid complacency if Starmer wins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clement_Davies
Give Meghan enough rope to slightly throttle herself, in a genteel way. Let her go off and earn money and do Hollywood voiceovers and endorse yoga tampons and the rest. As her looks fade, and her ambitiion (greed?) becomes clear, public sympathy will dwindle, quickly
I don’t want to be mean to her, but I don’t buy her victim status. The trouble is, right now, billions do. So let her have her way. It is the only way. She will tarnish quite quickly.
That leaves Harry. Poor Harry. Ah, god. It is sad.
The friend of yours who made that catastrophic prediction about Meghan a couple of years ago now seems quite prophetic.
As for Starmer being IYO boring, I believe you completely but would just probe a little. Do you mean he bores you as almost all mainstream politicians do? Or is it more that you have a bar for the level of stimulation you expect from a politician and Starmer fails to reach it?
They really were different times!
It related to press/media interest generated by various EU countries, in all ways (politics, culture, sport etc) around the world, in the last year
The UK was way way ahead. France was a distant second, then Germany, the rest were nowhere. (Bit tough on Spain, where I think the graph came from, but hey)
Partly this is just the English language. Also, I am sure, the potency of the English Premier League. But another factor is the royal family. If you go on Twitter you will find Americans, Nigerians, South Africans, Brazilians, saying “the royal family should do this” or “the Queen must do that”. There is no indication who they are talking about, because it is not necessary. THE Queen is the Queen of England. THE Royal Family is the Royal Family of the UK.
It’s daft, but this is a massive asset for the UK. Britain would be mad to abolish it in a fit of irritation. Meghan Markle must be gently and generously defused.
Can you honestly recall a thing he said about Brexit? The biggest issue of our times. And he was a void.
Just imagine when he starts doing detail.....
40k. Hmm. I believe you've already mentioned a stocks and shares ISA. You've rejected paying off the mortgage. You could consider moving to an offset mortgage and putting the money in there while you think about what to do it. £40K in an offset reduces the payments by £70-100pcm and you can take the money back out in emergencies. Other possibilities include:
1) get your teeth properly done: cleaned, filings replaced with white ones, loose ones reinforced, etc.
2) get a full body health check for you and your family every five or ten years: blood tests, body scanner, the works. Its amazing how many common diseases (diabetes, osteoporosis, cancer, hypothyroidism) can be far less serious if detected early.
3) if applicable: hair transplants to the crown.
I'll stop now ...
The Mail journalists will know all the gory details and times of where and when it was done by who.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7874669/Majority-Britons-say-Harry-Meghan-treated-Queen-shoddily.html
Some will stick around. The Labour brand must be one of the most resilient brands in Britain. Despite the fact its product is utterly shite and has disappointed and angered millions of its customers, it still gets 10 million votes - even with Stig of the Dump as CEO.
James Healy, 40, admitted assaulting Mr Jones outside a pub in August last year, but claimed he "had the hump" because the victim had bumped into him and spilled his drink.
But the Chelsea FC fan - who has a string of convictions for football-related violence - denied being motivated by Mr Jones sexuality or political campaigning, claiming he didn’t even know who he was.
Assaults deemed to be hate crimes can attract significantly longer sentences from the courts.
Following his arrest, a search of Healy’s home found a number of items connected to far-right ideology including a collection of pin badges linked to white supremacist groups.
Following a two-day hearing to determine Healy’s motive, Recorder Judge Anne Studd QC ruled on Friday the unprovoked attack could only be motivated by Mr Jones’s media profile as a left-wing polemicist.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-01-17/football-hooligan-convicted-of-attacking-guardian-columnist-over-political-views/
Given the membership is overwhelmingly pro EU and Labour voters in all polls would stay in the EU by a huge margin just what planet do those people inhabit who keep peddling the fantasy that the second vote ruined their election chances .
They’re now trying to trash Keir Starmer when the reality is Corbyn was the main problem together with the manifesto .
He abdicated in 1936 due to his love life but it seems to have been a lot of trouble and he had to be paid for Balmoral and Sandringham which were his personal property. It changed the line of succession too.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7826295/Voters-ditched-Labour-Jeremy-Corbyns-leadership-neutral-Brexit-stance-poll-says.html
You are ridiculous.
It might not end up 52-48 BUT...
I don't usually comment on the Royal Family because I don't really care that much but I have some sympathy for Harry who is facing "second son syndrome".
There have been second sons who have become King - Henry VIII, James II and George VI to name but three and all under very different circumstances and in their time Andrew and Harry were respectively second and third in line but times have changed and neither has any realistic chance of accession.
That doesn't stop them having a life to live and there is a struggle to find an identity and a sense of purpose. Perhaps Harry wants to forge a life and existence beyond his brother and his mother's shadow and I can only wish him and Meghan well.
By the by, while I see the right has found a new folk hero in Laurence Fox, I did agree the racism angle was being overplayed. Traditional suspicion of American divorcees notwithstanding, Meghan has found how quickly the worm of "media opinion" can turn if you don't do and say the right things.
You were also commenting on two-tier local Government - there are many models out there ranging from Cornwall via Cheshire to Northamptonshire. Assuming Essex would become a unitary council in any re-organisation is misguided - there are other options available.
She makes Starmer look prime ministerial in comparison and to be honest I have little confidence he will succeed, especially in the northern areas
Labour are in a mess and how they think they can recover 123 seats for a majority of 1 in 2024 is beyond me