On a serious matter- the beeb hits a new low with a reporter interviewing a man whose father died in the Glasgow pub! We really need to consider whether 24 hour news coverage is a good thing.
@John-Zims 'Everybody should watch this. It may be difficult viewing if you're a unionist, but necessary. Poor @acarmichaelmphttp://news.stv.tv/politics/250647-sturgeon-and-carmichael-cross-examine-each-other-on-independence/ …' I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government. Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.
Correct. But I am happy with the mistake. Once SLAB and the LDs went into bed with the SNP in a nationalist set of anti-Conservative english attacks through the past 20+ years, we have to expect a strong shift towards independence. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Interesting that the Nat posters on the board are clearly worries by Carmichael . Fortunately , we have Stuart Dickson's favourite measure to judge how effective he is , the Scottish opinion poll subsample . Populus Friday Lab 37 SNP 31 Con 14 Lib Dem 13
It is clear that their obsessive desire for Independence leads the Nat posters on here to be completely out of touch with the thoughts and concerns of the majority of their fellow Scots . . .
Mark, go watch the debate on STV player and then come back and say we are worried by him. He begged the presenter 3 times to help him , it was harrowing to watch.
Malcolm , you should know and acknowledge that people view these things through tinted spectacles of their own persuasion . When you watch these debates , you think all the supporters of Independence are speaking transparent words of wisdom and those anti are gibbering idiots and cannot see that others will view things in a diametrically opposite way .
Mark, I am not quite that bad , I know the SNP are far from perfect even if I am a bit biased. I still defy anyone to watch that and not conclude that Carmichael was pummelled and looked punch drunk in the end.
Given UK General Elections are only delayed because of war
It could be arranged...
Given your location I wonder how Cameron's 'burgeoning' relationship with China looks? I can't see him prostrating himself at the feet of the Party will go down too well with our allies.
I see he has binned the Dalai Lama big time to help him in his visit. Nice to see Tories maintaining their principles as ever.
@John-Zims 'Everybody should watch this. It may be difficult viewing if you're a unionist, but necessary. Poor @acarmichaelmphttp://news.stv.tv/politics/250647-sturgeon-and-carmichael-cross-examine-each-other-on-independence/ …' I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government. Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.
Correct. But I am happy with the mistake. Once SLAB and the LDs went into bed with the SNP in a nationalist set of anti-Conservative english attacks through the past 20+ years, we have to expect a strong shift towards independence. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Quite so, Brown and his acolytes played the national card for 20 years accusing the english tories of all Scotland's ills. Eck simply followed on the coat tails as they did his job for him. Even now Brown wants to run his own separate show for the No campaign to disassociate from the evil tories. As ever labour play short term advantage and reap long term loss.
Given UK General Elections are only delayed because of war
It could be arranged...
Given your location I wonder how Cameron's 'burgeoning' relationship with China looks? I can't see him prostrating himself at the feet of the Party will go down too well with our allies.
I see he has binned the Dalai Lama big time to help him in his visit. Nice to see Tories maintaining their principles as ever.
LOL that should cheer you up malc, the Tories have learned from Eck that Principles is somewhere you shop.
I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government.
Right - which answers David Herdson's question about why they're talking about parochial pettifogging policy. It splits the no campaign in half, and creates a wedge with the nats and most Scottish voters on one side and the Westminster government on the other. This is very, very effective politics.
Given UK General Elections are only delayed because of war
It could be arranged...
Given your location I wonder how Cameron's 'burgeoning' relationship with China looks? I can't see him prostrating himself at the feet of the Party will go down too well with our allies.
I see he has binned the Dalai Lama big time to help him in his visit. Nice to see Tories maintaining their principles as ever.
LOL that should cheer you up malc, the Tories have learned from Eck that Principles is somewhere you shop.
'Given your location I wonder how Cameron's 'burgeoning' relationship with China looks? I can't see him prostrating himself at the feet of the Party will go down too well with our allies.'
Won't match Blair's grovelling to the EU ,giving back part of our rebate and still being rejected for the EU presidency..
I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government.
Right - which answers David Herdson's question about why they're talking about parochial pettifogging policy. It splits the no campaign in half, and creates a wedge with the nats and most Scottish voters on one side and the Westminster government on the other. This is very, very effective politics.
Also explains why labour are struggling big time having to promote Tory policies like bedroom tax etc , it is not going down well.
I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government.
Right - which answers David Herdson's question about why they're talking about parochial pettifogging policy. It splits the no campaign in half, and creates a wedge with the nats and most Scottish voters on one side and the Westminster government on the other. This is very, very effective politics.
Also explains why labour are struggling big time having to promote Tory policies like bedroom tax etc , it is not going down well.
What's tricky for Labour is that the way the electoral cycles work, they'd traditionally spend the first half of 2014 doing things that disappoint the base and appeal to Middle England. That's why the special conference for the ritual union-slapping is set for next spring, and it would typically be accompanied by right-wing moves on immigration, law and order, etc etc. Labour aren't really far enough ahead in the UK race that they can afford to optimize for Scotland, so they're going to be spending a lot of that time narking off median Scottish voters.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
Northampton South (majority 15.4%) Conservative shortlist:
David Mackintosh (Northampton council leader) Stephen Mold (Chairman of East Midlands regional party) Chris Hayward (Hertfordshire Cllr) Jane Hunt (Charnwood Cllr. Stood in Leicester East 2010 and Leicester South 2012)
The no campaign need to hire seanT to come up with some chilling, fast-paced, not-quite-believable-but-near-enough FUD. The stuff about border controls on the thread yesterday was in a totally different league to what Carmichael was coming out with. They need to be far more audacious, but they also need to get some attack lines with proper emotional resonance, rather than wittering on about "complex warships" or whatever that was.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
Northampton South shortlist doesn't have the usual suspects and it features more localish names (in 2 cases, without the "ish"). I guess it's down to it being a Con leaning seat rather than an ultra safe seat.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
It shows ICM have problems with their polling. However go back over the last 6 months. 14% is high for the SNP but they've been getting around the 10% mark repeatedly. Who will those people actually vote for come a GE? It's an important question when trying to work out what will happen in the north. Polls seem to show the Tories losing about a quarter of their northern vote on average compared to maybe one sixth nationally. Lib Dems are losing well over half their national vote and it's even worse for them in the north. Now you might argue that Sheffield Hallam is not a typically northern seat. Or you might argue that the Lib Dem vote is holding up best in seats they currently hold. Maybe. However if 40% of Lib Dem voters are likely to vote Labour next time as the latest ICM says, Clegg could in big trouble. Labour are not sufficiently far behind the Tories to have no chance of winning Sheffield Hallam. The 'only Lib Dems can beat Tories here' line won't work there.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
It shows ICM have problems with their polling. However go back over the last 6 months. 14% is high for the SNP but they've been getting around the 10% mark repeatedly. Who will those people actually vote for come a GE? It's an important question when trying to work out what will happen in the north. Polls seem to show the Tories losing about a quarter of their northern vote on average compared to maybe one sixth nationally. Lib Dems are losing well over half their national vote and it's even worse for them in the north. Now you might argue that Sheffield Hallam is not a typically northern seat. Or you might argue that the Lib Dem vote is holding up best in seats they currently hold. Maybe. However if 40% of Lib Dem voters are likely to vote Labour next time as the latest ICM says, Clegg could in big trouble. Labour are not sufficiently far behind the Tories to have no chance of winning Sheffield Hallam. The 'only Lib Dems can beat Tories here' line won't work there.
I prefer to use the Ashcroft polling, which has shown the Lib Dems doing well in the seats they hold, comfortably, rather than any sub-sample.
The Lib Dems have a good database and are working the constituency well, my Mother is down as a Lib Dem voter in 2010 on the records of the Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems, she gets regular leaflets from them pointing out the Lib Dem and Clegg achievements in Government.
Additionally, your analysis is missing out the relative popularity Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems have in Sheffield Hallam, I mean, what do I know, my parents have lived in the seat for nearly 40 years, I only grew up in the seat, lived the first nineteen years of my life there, and since June, have moved backed. Just because you don't like Clegg doesn't mean it is shared by the good people of Sheffield Hallam.
However if 40% of Lib Dem voters are likely to vote Labour next time as the latest ICM says, Clegg could in big trouble.
But 40% of Lib Dem voters in Sheffield Hallam havent been voting Labour in real elections when given the opportunity to.
Fancy a bet on the result in this constituency at the next GE?
I don't make bets with people on here. In fact I rarely bet anyway. If I see good odds from a bookie on Clegg losing his seat I might well take them. People are well capable of voting for different parties nationally that they vote for locally. If people think their local Lib Dem councillors are a good thing, they will vote for them. That is VERY different to a Westminster election. Lib Dem councillors in Sheffield are not Tory hand maidens.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
What's wrong with 14% SNP in Northern England? I live in Northern England, and would happily vote for Scottish Independence if I were allowed to.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
What's wrong with 14% SNP in Northern England? I live in Northern England, and would happily vote for Scottish Independence if I were allowed to.
I've often said, the SNP should run candidates in England.
Northern England ICM subsamples really are interesting. Here's the latest for November
Lab 47 Con 18 SNP 14 UKIP 10 LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
I've explained to you countless times why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam.
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
It shows ICM have problems with their polling. However go back over the last 6 months. 14% is high for the SNP but they've been getting around the 10% mark repeatedly. Who will those people actually vote for come a GE? It's an important question when trying to work out what will happen in the north. Polls seem to show the Tories losing about a quarter of their northern vote on average compared to maybe one sixth nationally. Lib Dems are losing well over half their national vote and it's even worse for them in the north. Now you might argue that Sheffield Hallam is not a typically northern seat. Or you might argue that the Lib Dem vote is holding up best in seats they currently hold. Maybe. However if 40% of Lib Dem voters are likely to vote Labour next time as the latest ICM says, Clegg could in big trouble. Labour are not sufficiently far behind the Tories to have no chance of winning Sheffield Hallam. The 'only Lib Dems can beat Tories here' line won't work there.
I prefer to use the Ashcroft polling, which has shown the Lib Dems doing well in the seats they hold, comfortably, rather than any sub-sample.
The Lib Dems have a good database and are working the constituency well, my Mother is down as a Lib Dem voter in 2010 on the records of the Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems, she gets regular leaflets from them pointing out the Lib Dem and Clegg achievements in Government.
Additionally, your analysis is missing out the relative popularity Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems have in Sheffield Hallam, I mean, what do I know, my parents have lived in the seat for nearly 40 years, I only grew up in the seat, lived the first nineteen years of my life there, and since June, have moved backed. Just because you don't like Clegg doesn't mean it is shared by the good people of Sheffield Hallam.
I did say that perhaps Sheffield Hallam is not typical of the north. Maybe it is a bastion of true Liberalism that has no preference for Labour or Tory. Looking back at the history it's one of those places where Labour slipped back under Michael Foot and never recovered. Once the Lib Dems were the main challengers to the Tories, Labour never recovered and I'm sure there was a fair bit of tactical voting going on.
Whatever the reputation of Lib Dems in the area, the next election will be a choice of whether you want a Tory or Labour lead government. The Labour vote has steadily increased in the constituency since 2001.
The seat, bar one by-election a century ago, has always been Tory until 1997, when it went to the Yellow Peril, which incidentally was the first election I voted in.
It is (and often has been) the only non Labour seat in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, it has been a unique seat in the area.
Labour's share inevitably went up post 2001, because in 1997, enough Labour supporters voted tactically to get rid of the Tory.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
Danny Alexander OTOH I am less confident about Not betting though as I'm really not sure.
He was doomed the moment Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader.
I can't see past Tim Farron for that if the future shapes the way I expect it to for the Lib Dems, if its not Tim Farron as heavy favourite I have no idea.
Danny Alexander OTOH I am less confident about Not betting though as I'm really not sure.
He was doomed the moment Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader.
I can't see past Tim Farron for that if the future shapes the way I expect it to for the Lib Dems, if its not Tim Farron as heavy favourite I have no idea.
I'm on Farron as well, and Cable too, Carmichael has turned into a decent trading bet.
Farron is probably Dave's preferred choice, before the election.
@John-Zims 'Everybody should watch this. It may be difficult viewing if you're a unionist, but necessary. Poor @acarmichaelmphttp://news.stv.tv/politics/250647-sturgeon-and-carmichael-cross-examine-each-other-on-independence/ …' I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government. Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.
Correct. But I am happy with the mistake. Once SLAB and the LDs went into bed with the SNP in a nationalist set of anti-Conservative english attacks through the past 20+ years, we have to expect a strong shift towards independence. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Quite so, Brown and his acolytes played the national card for 20 years accusing the english tories of all Scotland's ills. Eck simply followed on the coat tails as they did his job for him. Even now Brown wants to run his own separate show for the No campaign to disassociate from the evil tories. As ever labour play short term advantage and reap long term loss.
I have great hopes for Brown's break-away "United with Labour" outfit.
@John-Zims 'Everybody should watch this. It may be difficult viewing if you're a unionist, but necessary. Poor @acarmichaelmphttp://news.stv.tv/politics/250647-sturgeon-and-carmichael-cross-examine-each-other-on-independence/ …' I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government. Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.
Correct. But I am happy with the mistake. Once SLAB and the LDs went into bed with the SNP in a nationalist set of anti-Conservative english attacks through the past 20+ years, we have to expect a strong shift towards independence. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Quite so, Brown and his acolytes played the national card for 20 years accusing the english tories of all Scotland's ills. Eck simply followed on the coat tails as they did his job for him. Even now Brown wants to run his own separate show for the No campaign to disassociate from the evil tories. As ever labour play short term advantage and reap long term loss.
I have great hopes for Brown's break-away "United with Labour" outfit.
I do wish people were able to read ICM polls correctly . The North sub sample is not a North of England subsample it is a north of the UK sub sample which includes Scotland . Similarly there Midlands sub sample includes Wales .
The FSB found 75% of SME businessmen will vote No. I have not met one who will actually vote Yes or would admit to it.
As for my home town.
"The Yes Scotland campaign has been dealt a blow after thousands of schoolchildren voted no in a mock referendum exactly one year before the official vote.
In total, 11,653 secondary school pupils in Aberdeenshire took part in the vote on Wednesday. A total of 8718 voted against an independent Scotland with 2847 voting for independence, with a turnout of 79.9%.
The results mean that 75.3% of school children do not support the notion of independence. Only Carronhill School in Stonehaven, voted in favour of independence by eight votes to five."
Yes and most of them being children will not have a vote, strange that Aberdeenshire should choose to ask S1-S6 to vote on it. In all other ones seen to date , ie university debates , surprisingly YES has won comfortably. .
Not sure about that. My eldest son is at Glasgow university where they had a debate and No won about 70/30. My youngest is at a secondary school school in Renfrew where a similar vote went 80/20 in favour of no.
Exactly , plenty go either way , good as a minor diversion but little to how the real vote will go and debatable how they are run , many will just reflect the teachers viewpoint. Hard to see what a few schools debates will mean in reality.
Is it me or are you all over the place?
How do you get from
"Yes and most of them being children will not have a vote, strange that Aberdeenshire should choose to ask S1-S6 to vote on it. In all other ones seen to date , ie university debates , surprisingly YES has won comfortably."
and then following this response form another poster saying . Not sure about that. My eldest son is at Glasgow university where they had a debate and No won about 70/30. My youngest is at a secondary school school in Renfrew where a similar vote went 80/20 in favour of no.
You then post
Exactly , plenty go either way , good as a minor diversion but little to how the real vote will go and debatable how they are run , many will just reflect the teachers viewpoint. Hard to see what a few schools debates will mean in reality.
"In all other ones" to "plenty go either way" in the space of what, couple of hours
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
@John-Zims 'Everybody should watch this. It may be difficult viewing if you're a unionist, but necessary. Poor @acarmichaelmphttp://news.stv.tv/politics/250647-sturgeon-and-carmichael-cross-examine-each-other-on-independence/ …' I could only take 5 mins but you can see the problem. Nicola is talking domestic politics (and very parochial ones at that) Carmichael is foolishly defending a Tory government. Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.
Correct. But I am happy with the mistake. Once SLAB and the LDs went into bed with the SNP in a nationalist set of anti-Conservative english attacks through the past 20+ years, we have to expect a strong shift towards independence. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Quite so, Brown and his acolytes played the national card for 20 years accusing the english tories of all Scotland's ills. Eck simply followed on the coat tails as they did his job for him. Even now Brown wants to run his own separate show for the No campaign to disassociate from the evil tories. As ever labour play short term advantage and reap long term loss.
I have great hopes for Brown's break-away "United with Labour" outfit.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
You can't treat all Lib Dem seats where the Cons are in 2nd place as the same. Clearly in some, like Cheltenham, Labour have no chance of out voting the Tories - so inevitably the 'only Lib Dems can beat the Tories here' line will work. That just isn't the case in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are fast catching the Tories up. Their vote hasn't been squeezed almost out of existence like in much of the south west. Clearly Sheffield Hallam should be a long term Labour target but they'll probably need more than one bite of the cherry. Once they're established in second place, Clegg will be vulnerable.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
Mark, can you take over the stint explaining why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam, I've done my stint today and now I'm writing the afternoon thread, and have to focus on that.
I'm rooting for Susanna Reid actually as I have backed her on my now barred Stan James account (And its my biggest win...)
One of the joys of being barred by Stan James (welcome to the club) is phoning them up to unfreeze the account so they can send you the winnings from open bets.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
You can't treat all Lib Dem seats where the Cons are in 2nd place as the same. Clearly in some, like Cheltenham, Labour have no chance of out voting the Tories - so inevitably the 'only Lib Dems can beat the Tories here' line will work. That just isn't the case in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are fast catching the Tories up. Their vote hasn't been squeezed almost out of existence like in much of the south west. Clearly Sheffield Hallam should be a long term Labour target but they'll probably need more than one bite of the cherry. Once they're established in second place, Clegg will be vulnerable.
The Ashcroft poll was in Con seats where Lib Dems were 2nd not Lib Dem seats where Conservatives were 2nd . Your personal animosity to Clegg can keep you hyping up all the imaginary threats to Clegg that you can dream of but that is all they are the dreams of a bitter and twisted mind .
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
You can't treat all Lib Dem seats where the Cons are in 2nd place as the same. Clearly in some, like Cheltenham, Labour have no chance of out voting the Tories - so inevitably the 'only Lib Dems can beat the Tories here' line will work. That just isn't the case in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are fast catching the Tories up. Their vote hasn't been squeezed almost out of existence like in much of the south west. Clearly Sheffield Hallam should be a long term Labour target but they'll probably need more than one bite of the cherry. Once they're established in second place, Clegg will be vulnerable.
Clegg will win. Reduced majority, but still very comfortably in 2015. Me, Mark and TSE will all eat humble pie if he doesn't - but we all know Lib Dems/the seat to some degree. The value in the odds is probably on the 1/4 for a Lib Dem hold.
The seat, bar one by-election a century ago, has always been Tory until 1997, when it went to the Yellow Peril, which incidentally was the first election I voted in.
It is (and often has been) the only non Labour seat in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, it has been a unique seat in the area.
Labour's share inevitably went up post 2001, because in 1997, enough Labour supporters voted tactically to get rid of the Tory.
IIRC, Hallam is the wealthiest constituency in the north of England.
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
I disagree - Think it will be the one of the safest Lib Dem seats in England come next GE - Not quite a Westmoorland but I can see a CON -> LD swing in Hallam.
That was the Clegg strategy. yet in spite of Lynton Crosby's best efforts very few Tory 2010 voters are switching to the Lib Dems. That is certainly one of the problems for Labour though. Once they look like the main challenger to Clegg, will Tory voters back Cameron's bag man?
As often you are incorrect . The Ashcroft poll on Con/Lib Dem marginals has 78 2010 Con voters moving to the Lib Dems and just 53 moving from Lib Dem to Conservative . It also has 39 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems and 82 moving from Lib Dem to Labour .
Mark, can you take over the stint explaining why Clegg won't lose Sheffield Hallam, I've done my stint today and now I'm writing the afternoon thread, and have to focus on that.
LOL , in between watching how my perhaps foolish bet on Villa to beat Sunderland is doing . I have a saver on a 0-0 draw just in case the match is dire .
@richardaeden: Election defeat for #Prescott. @DavidPrescott, son of Two Jags, has failed to be selected by #Labour for Greenwich and Woolwich safe seat
The seat, bar one by-election a century ago, has always been Tory until 1997, when it went to the Yellow Peril, which incidentally was the first election I voted in.
It is (and often has been) the only non Labour seat in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, it has been a unique seat in the area.
Labour's share inevitably went up post 2001, because in 1997, enough Labour supporters voted tactically to get rid of the Tory.
IIRC, Hallam is the wealthiest constituency in the north of England.
It is, and and I've lived in the two most most wealthiest constituencies in the country.
No luck for Invictus in the Hennesy ! Was surprised to see a win bet advised in such a big field (Paying 5) but after a 651 day lay off they are either going to win or not place.
Comments
'Infact if they hadn't said otherwise I'd have thought he was a Tory. Big mistake from the 'no' camp putting up a Tory/LibDem minister.'
So a surge for the Yes vote in the next week or so.
'Given your location I wonder how Cameron's 'burgeoning' relationship with China looks? I can't see him prostrating himself at the feet of the Party will go down too well with our allies.'
Won't match Blair's grovelling to the EU ,giving back part of our rebate and still being rejected for the EU presidency..
www.andovertown.co.uk/news/sir-george-young-to-step-down-in-2015/
Lab 47
Con 18
SNP 14
UKIP 10
LD 9
2010 UK general election the Lib Dems got over 22% of the vote in the north. Labour meanwhile got about 39%. So if the Lib Dems are going to lose maybe 60% of their northern vote, where will it go? What will happen to the 14% who currently say SNP presuming Salmond doesn't pull an audacious move and start standing candidates in Northumberland and Cumbria? If 60% of Lib Dem voters do go, all bets are off as to where they might hang on. Even in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's majority would be wiped out.
David Mackintosh (Northampton council leader)
Stephen Mold (Chairman of East Midlands regional party)
Chris Hayward (Hertfordshire Cllr)
Jane Hunt (Charnwood Cllr. Stood in Leicester East 2010 and Leicester South 2012)
Selection on 7 December
And if you're really basing your forecast on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam on a sub-sample made up 14% of SNP, then I really can't help you.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25165546
I have a feeling some might not agree .....
Fancy a bet on the result in this constituency at the next GE?
The Lib Dems have a good database and are working the constituency well, my Mother is down as a Lib Dem voter in 2010 on the records of the Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems, she gets regular leaflets from them pointing out the Lib Dem and Clegg achievements in Government.
Additionally, your analysis is missing out the relative popularity Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems have in Sheffield Hallam, I mean, what do I know, my parents have lived in the seat for nearly 40 years, I only grew up in the seat, lived the first nineteen years of my life there, and since June, have moved backed. Just because you don't like Clegg doesn't mean it is shared by the good people of Sheffield Hallam.
Sheffield council result shows talk of Lib Dem demise may be premature
Liberal Democrat candidate romps home in Fulwood byelection to bolster Nick Clegg's chances of retaining Hallam in general election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/the-northerner/2013/may/03/sheffield-local-elections-liberal-democrats
Whatever the reputation of Lib Dems in the area, the next election will be a choice of whether you want a Tory or Labour lead government. The Labour vote has steadily increased in the constituency since 2001.
The seat, bar one by-election a century ago, has always been Tory until 1997, when it went to the Yellow Peril, which incidentally was the first election I voted in.
It is (and often has been) the only non Labour seat in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, it has been a unique seat in the area.
Labour's share inevitably went up post 2001, because in 1997, enough Labour supporters voted tactically to get rid of the Tory.
My parents bought their house in Dore in 1981 for less than 20k
1983 - 16,400
1987 - 14,400
1992 - 14,000
1997 - 8,900
2001 - 7,000
2005 - 6,900
2010 - 3,800
This would suggest that the Tories are in terminal decline in the area and soon it will be a red/yellow fight. The important thing is that Labour can beat the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Once that it clear the floodgates could open.
www.matthewpennycook.com
Not betting though as I'm really not sure.
Farron is probably Dave's preferred choice, before the election.
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/campaigns/entry/united-with-labour
Brown's ego prevents him from seeing the harm he is doing to Darling's BT outfit.
Didn't the Guardian recommend voting Lib Dem at the last election?
As historical mistakes go must be up their with Hitler's march on Moscow
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/campaigns/entry/truth-team
That is why Scottish Labour recognises its responsibility to be honest in everything we say and do...
ROFL
"Matthew Pennycook selected in Greenwich and Woolwich by Labour
www.matthewpennycook.com"
Just once in a blue moon you realise that someone's advancement might be thwarted by their name
How do you get from
"Yes and most of them being children will not have a vote, strange that Aberdeenshire should choose to ask S1-S6 to vote on it. In all other ones seen to date , ie university debates , surprisingly YES has won comfortably."
and then following this response form another poster saying
.
Not sure about that. My eldest son is at Glasgow university where they had a debate and No won about 70/30. My youngest is at a secondary school school in Renfrew where a similar vote went 80/20 in favour of no.
You then post
Exactly , plenty go either way , good as a minor diversion but little to how the real vote will go and debatable how they are run , many will just reflect the teachers viewpoint. Hard to see what a few schools debates will mean in reality.
"In all other ones" to "plenty go either way" in the space of what, couple of hours
Impressive.
And you win today's Godwin award, which saddens me, as I was hoping the coalition would start gassing the gypos.
Your personal animosity to Clegg can keep you hyping up all the imaginary threats to Clegg that you can dream of but that is all they are the dreams of a bitter and twisted mind .
Sheffield Hallam and Kensington and Chelsea