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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Were we all taken in by the apparent invincibility of Team Cor

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Were we all taken in by the apparent invincibility of Team Corbyn?

Cast your mind back to the Monday after the general election when it became clear that Corbyn would be standing aside and that a leadership contest would be held.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    First?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Only?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Gone
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited January 2020
    I don't think much of the new X-Factor judges in the thread picture....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    edited January 2020
    The more one is frightened of something, the more one is predisposed to exaggerate its prowess. Human nature.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kle4 said:

    YBarddCwsc said:



    The Prince of Wales is a highly offensive title. Many Welsh people see it as a symbol of subjugation, dislike it heartily, and would like to see it abolished.

    Do they? Granted I'm not the target audience for the outrage, but I'm surprised I've never heard that before.
    There was a bombing campaign at the Investiture of Prince Charles as Prince of Wales.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investiture_of_the_Prince_of_Wales
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited January 2020
    The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled significant changes to the nation’s landmark environmental law that would make it easier for federal agencies to approve construction projects without considering climate change.

    Many of the White House’s proposed changes to the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act have been supported by business groups that contend the law has delayed or blocked projects like laying out pipelines and building dams and mines, among other things.

    Environmentalists said that the rules would endanger wildlife and lead to more carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, and contend that the regulations should be strengthened not weakened as the world copes with global warming.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/trump-to-announce-sweeping-changes-to-the-national-environmental-policy-act.html
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    It is a bit early to write off Team Corby.

    We have only seen how the MPs break, and Corby himself did not win because of the MPs. I suspect it will be close.

    I don't think 10/10 is a negative for RLB -- I value loyalty to ones friends.

    Far, far better for RLB to say 10/10, but make clear changes are needed, than to say 0/10 like the Godawful Thornberry.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    10/10 shows RLB is in complete denial and not with it in terms of what has happened. Not even sure NPEXMP really accepts that the left can never be elected on such a prospectus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    It would be encouraging to see if the spell of Corbynism has broken among ordinary members, though as suggested by YBarddCwsc, MPs were never the strength of the Corbyn project, and that's putting it lightly.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled significant changes to the nation’s landmark environmental law that would make it easier for federal agencies to approve construction projects without considering climate change.

    Many of the White House’s proposed changes to the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act have been supported by business groups that contend the law has delayed or blocked projects like laying out pipelines and building dams and mines, among other things.

    Environmentalists said that the rules would endanger wildlife and lead to more carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, and contend that the regulations should be strengthened not weakened as the world copes with global warming.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/trump-to-announce-sweeping-changes-to-the-national-environmental-policy-act.html

    Dunno about the planet, but watch the economy boom.....
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    kle4 said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    Anorak said:

    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    squareroot2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    squareroot2 said:

    You do not need to pluralise Sussex at all.

    You can't go calling H&M "The Sussex". That just does not sound right.
    You call them the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
    For now.

    Would be quite hillarious if she got told she can't use the "Sussex Royal" brand that has been registered in the USA.
    It shouldn't have surprised me, but did, to find out today that they don't actually live in Sussex.
    The aristocracy's casual appropriation if bits of geography is a minor but not insignificant factor in my general irritation with the whole institution.

    Maybe this is all a conspiracy to make those further up the order of precedence look good by comparison.
    Next you'll be telling me the Prince of Wales doesn't live in Caerphilly and that Andrew doesn't live the shadow of York Minster.

    Madness.
    The Prince of Wales is a highly offensive title. Many Welsh people see it as a symbol of subjugation, dislike it heartily, and would like to see it abolished.
    Do they? Granted I'm not the target audience for the outrage, but I'm surprised I've never heard that before.
    Those who are outraged about such things would be outraged about anything that replaced it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    MaxPB said:

    I still don't understand why Angela Rayner isn't running, the RLB/Rayner ticket looks lopsided. If it was the other way around I think the hard left would have a very good chance of winning. RLB has been found out to to a bit of a nothing lightweight which many of us suspected from the start.

    It's possible that people are getting over enthused about Rayner precisely because she is not in the running, but if that combo does win then if there is truth to her indeed being better, then it would seem we'll get to a Brown Blair rivalry in no time. Apparently they're friends, but if you friend is not as good a leader and a lot of people say so, things would get tense.
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    New poll in NH. Mayor Pete up by 1 if all current candidates stay in. Biden up by 1 among the top four. Tight either way and to be expected, a lot different from the last poll (which came out less than a week ago.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1215311347040358401
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    YBarddCwsc said:

    It is a bit early to write off Team Corby.

    We have only seen how the MPs break, and Corby himself did not win because of the MPs. I suspect it will be close.

    I don't think 10/10 is a negative for RLB -- I value loyalty to ones friends.

    Far, far better for RLB to say 10/10, but make clear changes are needed, than to say 0/10 like the Godawful Thornberry.

    If you are comparing anybody standing for anything to Thornberry, you relay are setting the bar redickualesly low!

    but I agree that there is no reason to suggest that support from MPs is proportionate to support from members. It hasn't been in ether of the last 2 election.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled significant changes to the nation’s landmark environmental law that would make it easier for federal agencies to approve construction projects without considering climate change.

    Many of the White House’s proposed changes to the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act have been supported by business groups that contend the law has delayed or blocked projects like laying out pipelines and building dams and mines, among other things.

    Environmentalists said that the rules would endanger wildlife and lead to more carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, and contend that the regulations should be strengthened not weakened as the world copes with global warming.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/trump-to-announce-sweeping-changes-to-the-national-environmental-policy-act.html

    As this is an 'Act' it would have to pass thought congress, and I cant see that happening, So I suspect this may be a campaigning issue will it help? will realey annoy people who would never have voted TRUMP anyway, Swing voters in swing states? I think it could help him? but may be wrong
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,940
    BigRich said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled significant changes to the nation’s landmark environmental law that would make it easier for federal agencies to approve construction projects without considering climate change.

    Many of the White House’s proposed changes to the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act have been supported by business groups that contend the law has delayed or blocked projects like laying out pipelines and building dams and mines, among other things.

    Environmentalists said that the rules would endanger wildlife and lead to more carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, and contend that the regulations should be strengthened not weakened as the world copes with global warming.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/trump-to-announce-sweeping-changes-to-the-national-environmental-policy-act.html

    As this is an 'Act' it would have to pass thought congress, and I cant see that happening, So I suspect this may be a campaigning issue will it help? will realey annoy people who would never have voted TRUMP anyway, Swing voters in swing states? I think it could help him? but may be wrong
    It will help Trump raise funds from the companies who want the law changed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210
    Kevin_McCandless said:

    New poll in NH. Mayor Pete up by 1 if all current candidates stay in. Biden up by 1 among the top four. Tight either way and to be expected, a lot different from the last poll (which came out less than a week ago.)

    I think New Hampshire and Iowa decide the "main" challenger to Biden to be honest. He has enough NV and SC strength to be in a good position heading into Super-Tuesday unless he COMPLETELY flunks in IA and NH.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Gardiner (according to Telegraph) is asking for union support. Looks like he`s trying to usurp RLB (and presumably raid her MP support).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Well, who'd have thought? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51047264
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    "Iran 'mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet' - US media"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,294
    edited January 2020
    I think the thing to understand is the Labour swing vote is the 'soft left'. Whoever has their support, has control of the party's direction. They were basically on board with the Bennite project in the early 80s (Benn would have beaten Healey in the DL contest under current rules), but just over a decade later were voting for Blair to be leader. After Ed's defeat, and in part due to Cooper and Burnham's timid campaigns, they swung en masse to Corbyn. But their support for him was because they liked him, and not because they wanted the far left to permanently control the Labour Party. There was never any reason to assume they'd automatically support anyone that his primary backers would... especially - as in RLB's case - if the favoured candidate of that wing of the party was vapid and uninspiring.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    "Iran plane crash: US officials 'confident' plane shot down by Iranian missile"

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-crash-downing-street-looking-into-reports-ukrainian-jet-was-shot-down-by-missile-11904698
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Buttigieg receives his first endorsement from black member of Congress as he struggles to get black support

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/maryland-congressman-anthony-brown-endorse-pete-buttigieg/index.html
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Andy_JS said:

    "Iran plane crash: US officials 'confident' plane shot down by Iranian missile"

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-crash-downing-street-looking-into-reports-ukrainian-jet-was-shot-down-by-missile-11904698

    Seems quite a vindication of the supposedly crazy Trump strategy. In response we've now learnt Iran are too scared to genuinely hit back, ringing ahead to make sure there were no casualties, and too incompetent to do that properly, tragically shooting down this plane.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1215319527308828672
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    The key to this stage is getting enough MPs to qualify. Once you have done that who cares what the MPs think? It's not like the new leader has to lead them or anything.

    Suggesting that those on the left are finding it hard to get support in a PLP that has never supported Corbyn is really not the point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited January 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "Iran plane crash: US officials 'confident' plane shot down by Iranian missile"

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-crash-downing-street-looking-into-reports-ukrainian-jet-was-shot-down-by-missile-11904698

    Of couse it was.

    The Iranians just have to come clean on this. A tragic accident will be accepted, albeit it a very bitter additional cost to the "slap" they gave the Americans. What will not be accepted is tampering with black box. And that will just feed into the notion that the Iranians can't be trusted on their nuclear bomb programme.

    Trump has always said they can't be trusted and the EU was naive to think they would play by the rules. Tehran can't give Trump a victory with the EU on top of his successful assassination of their top military master tactition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1215320584487350273


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1215320815631249409
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    When is Thornberry dropping out? She has 3 nominations so far, and iirc the closing date is Monday.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Given the vast majority of the passengers were Iranian, and none were American, they have a very weird method of protest if it was deliberate.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    maaarsh said:



    Seems quite a vindication of the supposedly crazy Trump strategy. In response we've now learnt Iran are too scared to genuinely hit back, ringing ahead to make sure there were no casualties, and too incompetent to do that properly, tragically shooting down this plane.

    It's an appallingly heavy price in human life for "vindication". Granted it has again revealed Iran's military vulnerabilities but I suspect those were already well known.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    rottenborough said:

    When is Thornberry dropping out? She has 3 nominations so far, and iirc the closing date is Monday.

    She picked up another one today. My book would very much appreciate a late surge to get on the ballot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623
    edited January 2020
    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Hopefully incompetence is all that it is.

    Given that they apparently deliberately missed the targets with the other missiles, in an attempt to diffuse the situation, it’s most likely to be a f***up rather than a conspiracy.

    They need to come clean though, and hand over the black boxes to someone competent and neutral, most likely the BEA in France. The online aviation community is already 99% sure it was shot down, modern planes just don’t fall out of the sky like that any more.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    maaarsh said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Given the vast majority of the passengers were Iranian, and none were American, they have a very weird method of protest if it was deliberate.
    If it is the case (and the initial fact pattern and follow-up behavior pushes in that direction), it will be incompetence. Let’s see how the Iranians move on this though before reaching conclusions.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Reminds me of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

    As you say very sad. I hope things de-escalate.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Reminds me of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

    As you say very sad. I hope things de-escalate.
    They already have. After all the twitter bluster, Iran were too scared to respond with genuine aggression. Unfortunately they were also incompetent and a number of innocent civilians, mostly Iranians, have paid for that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623
    maaarsh said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we just assuming that this is complete incompetence on the part of the Iranians? Very sad if so, all those children.

    Reminds me of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

    As you say very sad. I hope things de-escalate.
    They already have. After all the twitter bluster, Iran were too scared to respond with genuine aggression. Unfortunately they were also incompetent and a number of innocent civilians, mostly Iranians, have paid for that.
    They’ve also managed to mightily upset Ukraine and Canada, two countries that until now have kept themselves to themselves on the subject of Middle East conflict.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Withdrawal bill passed commons...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    maaarsh said:

    Seems quite a vindication of the supposedly crazy Trump strategy. In response we've now learnt Iran are too scared to genuinely hit back, ringing ahead to make sure there were no casualties, and too incompetent to do that properly, tragically shooting down this plane.

    Nothing crazy about Trump's one and only strategy. It's to get re-elected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623
    RobD said:

    Withdrawal bill passed commons...

    Woo, finally! :smiley:
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    So far apart from 1 early poll we've just learnt what Labour MPs want, which is more job security. We'll see whether the members agree in the next couple of months.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,468
    DavidL said:

    Well, who'd have thought? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51047264

    It’s not a no-deal Brexit. Yet!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    Looks like Lewis and Thornberry will be eliminated then but all the rest will progress
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Well, it took the Conservatives three defeats and three leaders before they chose a centrist so I suppose it's par for the course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    maaarsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    So far apart from 1 early poll we've just learnt what Labour MPs want, which is more job security. We'll see whether the members agree in the next couple of months.
    Starmer led the latest YouGov members poll comfortably
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    I agree 100%.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    So four definitely in it, the question now is will the remaining MPs think that’s enough - or will they seek to ‘widen the field’ as they did when they nominated Corbyn at the last minute (albeit under a different system) in 2015?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    It won't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    nunu2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    It won't.
    You’re funny.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    Whether Brexit turns out well or not is irrelevant. The public associate Starmer as being a key player in parliament`s efforts to thwart the referendum result. This is ammunition for the Tories.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    HYUFD said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    Looks like Lewis and Thornberry will be eliminated then but all the rest will progress
    will phillips and nandy eat into Starmer, leaving RLB to have the harder left entirely to herself?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    Whether Brexit turns out well or not is irrelevant. The public associate Starmer as being a key player in parliament`s efforts to thwart the referendum result. This is ammunition for the Tories.
    You’re fighting the last war. It wont matter who tried to ‘block’ Brexit when reality hits and Brexit hasn’t in fact solved everyones problems.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Actually, Boris promised very little.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    I think that is correct.

    The Tories have dealt with opponents like Starmer before, but they would have to work out new ways to deal with Nandy.

    If the choice comes down to 3 women versus 1 man, and the man wins .... then you do wonder what will have to happen for Labour to ever elect a female leader.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Actually, Boris promised very little.
    You keep believing that if you want.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Stocky said:

    Gardiner (according to Telegraph) is asking for union support. Looks like he`s trying to usurp RLB (and presumably raid her MP support).

    Nominations, once submitted, cannot be withdrawn unless the candidate withdraws in which case the MP can nominate a different candidate.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    Agreed. While ultimately futile, the Benn Act has at least absolved parliament of any responsibility for an ensuing Brexit horror show. Remainer MPs can now rightly declare they did everything in their power to guarantee an optimal Brexit. That Boris and his voters in the north chose to obliterate those safeguards will be their lookout.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Gallowgate said:

    nunu2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The simple fact seems to be that after 3 straight election defeats under leftwing leaders and 4 defeats overall, Labour members have decided to pick a more centrist leader in Starmer

    Or Nandy.
    I think that the Tories will be more scared of Nandy than Starmer.

    There`s a few things to go at with Starmer, inc Benn Act and his role in Carl Beech affair.
    The Benn Act could be a major asset when Brexit turns to ash in Boris’s mouth.
    It won't.
    You’re funny.
    It won't because it only requires that the commons vote for a withdrawal agreement, which they already have done.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    RobD said:

    Withdrawal bill passed commons...

    How nice that Parliament and the government is fully functional again. :D
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sandpit said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    So four definitely in it, the question now is will the remaining MPs think that’s enough - or will they seek to ‘widen the field’ as they did when they nominated Corbyn at the last minute (albeit under a different system) in 2015?
    Not necessarily, They still need to get 5% of CLPs to endorse them, (or some trade unions I think) 5% would be about 33 I think, if its one for each GB Constituency, and we don't know how this will go.

    PS Thornberry now up to 10!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10q5FYBp4skFfDNpauWAdUMnP1NbBryW8qkYVC7uTICU/edit#gid=0
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Withdrawal bill passed commons...

    How nice that Parliament and the government is fully functional again. :D
    Rubber stamps on standby.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    Gardiner (according to Telegraph) is asking for union support. Looks like he`s trying to usurp RLB (and presumably raid her MP support).

    Nominations, once submitted, cannot be withdrawn unless the candidate withdraws in which case the MP can nominate a different candidate.
    That`s interesting - is this only if nominations are in writing though? Many of the nominations on Order Order are, I think, just verbal.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    It’s highly amusing that Brexiteers are so confident that there is no way Brexit can go wrong. No way at all!

    Laughable. A recession is due and there’s the possibility that everything gets reframed.

    Nothing is certain.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    BigRich said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    So four definitely in it, the question now is will the remaining MPs think that’s enough - or will they seek to ‘widen the field’ as they did when they nominated Corbyn at the last minute (albeit under a different system) in 2015?
    Not necessarily, They still need to get 5% of CLPs to endorse them, (or some trade unions I think) 5% would be about 33 I think, if its one for each GB Constituency, and we don't know how this will go.

    PS Thornberry now up to 10!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10q5FYBp4skFfDNpauWAdUMnP1NbBryW8qkYVC7uTICU/edit#gid=0
    There are repeated names under Phillips, at least 3 MPs appear twice
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    Those 4 people who have backed oddball Clive Lewis must be out of their minds! :open_mouth:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
    I have Gallowgate, and have had long debates trying to understand their position - I`m with you, remember, I voted to remain.

    The leavers I`ve talked to believe that things will be better (because we will take back control), they believe unemployment won`t rise (because free movement ends), they believe that Immigration will fall from the EU (same reason).

    Furthermore, if the stats show that their beliefs haven`t worked out, as you suggest in your original post, they will never accept that this is due to leaving the EU. They will say that it would have been worse if we had stayed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833
    BigRich said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    So four definitely in it, the question now is will the remaining MPs think that’s enough - or will they seek to ‘widen the field’ as they did when they nominated Corbyn at the last minute (albeit under a different system) in 2015?
    Not necessarily, They still need to get 5% of CLPs to endorse them, (or some trade unions I think) 5% would be about 33 I think, if its one for each GB Constituency, and we don't know how this will go.

    PS Thornberry now up to 10!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10q5FYBp4skFfDNpauWAdUMnP1NbBryW8qkYVC7uTICU/edit#gid=0
    Anyone backing Barry yet?
    I'm struggling to come to terms with the Barry candidacy. Seldom before has there been a leadership candidate, for any party, about whom I have held so few views. Apart from that it would be quite odd to have a Prime Minister called Barry.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Deputy

    Rosena Allin Khan 16
    Richard Burgon 18
    Dawn Butler 14
    Ian Murray 29
    Angela Rayner 71
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Cookie said:


    Apart from that it would be quite odd to have a Prime Minister called Barry.

    Bazza.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    GIN1138 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    Those 4 people who have backed oddball Clive Lewis must be out of their minds! :open_mouth:
    I think some of the MPs should just vote for him - it'll be good for Labour if there's an oddball candidate in the mix. He won't win after all.

    (Oddly this isn't being said)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Stocky said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    Gardiner (according to Telegraph) is asking for union support. Looks like he`s trying to usurp RLB (and presumably raid her MP support).

    Nominations, once submitted, cannot be withdrawn unless the candidate withdraws in which case the MP can nominate a different candidate.
    That`s interesting - is this only if nominations are in writing though? Many of the nominations on Order Order are, I think, just verbal.
    This is the official site.
    https://labour.org.uk/people/leadership-2020-nominations/leadership-2020/
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
    I have Gallowgate, and have had long debates trying to understand their position - I`m with you, remember, I voted to remain.

    The leavers I`ve talked to believe that things will be better (because we will take back control), they believe unemployment won`t rise (because free movement ends), they believe that Immigration will fall from the EU (same reason).

    Furthermore, if the stats show that their beliefs haven`t worked out, as you suggest in your original post, they will never accept that this is due to leaving the EU. They will say that it would have been worse if we had stayed.
    You don’t know what they will say. I think in those circumstances you’ll find a lot less people admitting they voted Leave.

    Remember you only need 5-10% of people of voted Leave to blame Brexit before the whole situation changes.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    GIN1138 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    Those 4 people who have backed oddball Clive Lewis must be out of their minds! :open_mouth:
    Clive Lewis himself
    Rachael Maskell, York Central
    Julie Ward MEP
    Nadia Whittome, Nottingham East (she said she has not decided yet. Landing him her nom)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
    I have Gallowgate, and have had long debates trying to understand their position - I`m with you, remember, I voted to remain.

    The leavers I`ve talked to believe that things will be better (because we will take back control), they believe unemployment won`t rise (because free movement ends), they believe that Immigration will fall from the EU (same reason).

    Furthermore, if the stats show that their beliefs haven`t worked out, as you suggest in your original post, they will never accept that this is due to leaving the EU. They will say that it would have been worse if we had stayed.
    You don’t know what they will say. I think in those circumstances you’ll find a lot less people admitting they voted Leave.

    Remember you only need 5-10% of people of voted Leave to blame Brexit before the whole situation changes.
    They might blame Brexit, but would it cause them to change the way they would vote?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
    I have Gallowgate, and have had long debates trying to understand their position - I`m with you, remember, I voted to remain.

    The leavers I`ve talked to believe that things will be better (because we will take back control), they believe unemployment won`t rise (because free movement ends), they believe that Immigration will fall from the EU (same reason).

    Furthermore, if the stats show that their beliefs haven`t worked out, as you suggest in your original post, they will never accept that this is due to leaving the EU. They will say that it would have been worse if we had stayed.
    You don’t know what they will say. I think in those circumstances you’ll find a lot less people admitting they voted Leave.

    Remember you only need 5-10% of people of voted Leave to blame Brexit before the whole situation changes.
    You can`t win on this Gallowgate (and you Meeks). As I say, the leaver`s position is emotional and identity-based more than it is rational. It`s like religion: you can`t reason someone out of something that they didn`t reason themselves into.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Remember I’m not saying that Brexit will be reversed. I’m just saying that “supporting the Benn” act will become much less of an issue when Brexit actually becomes real. When reality hits and things haven’t improved.

    A surprising number of Brexit voters in the North East I’ve spoken to are convinced that waiting times in the NHS are going to sharply come down once we leave because of immigrants or something.

    They are convinced that unemployment will drop (does it have any further to drop?).

    They are convinced that there will be ample council houses like the ‘good old days”.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    YBarddCwsc said:

    BigRich said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Party updates on nominations

    Clive Lewis 4
    Rebecca Long-Bailey 26
    Lisa Nandy 22
    Jess Phillips 22
    Keir Starmer 59
    Emily Thornberry 7

    21 is the threshold to advance to next stage

    So four definitely in it, the question now is will the remaining MPs think that’s enough - or will they seek to ‘widen the field’ as they did when they nominated Corbyn at the last minute (albeit under a different system) in 2015?
    Not necessarily, They still need to get 5% of CLPs to endorse them, (or some trade unions I think) 5% would be about 33 I think, if its one for each GB Constituency, and we don't know how this will go.

    PS Thornberry now up to 10!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10q5FYBp4skFfDNpauWAdUMnP1NbBryW8qkYVC7uTICU/edit#gid=0
    There are repeated names under Phillips, at least 3 MPs appear twice
    Are you shore I've just had a look, and I admit my dyslexia makes me liable to this sort of mistake, but I cant see of Thornberrys supporters in Phillips list?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Cookie said:


    Apart from that it would be quite odd to have a Prime Minister called Barry.

    Bazza.
    Bozza and Bazza were two pretty men.

    But they were pretty epically rubbish as leader of the opposition and PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1215298901651181568?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1215336631458304001?s=20
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Stocky said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Labour will highlight that immigration hasn’t reduced. That the economy hasn’t grown. How unemployment is up. You Tories are fighting the last war.

    Boris promised everything to all people. There is no way for it NOT to blow up in his face.

    Boris hasn`t promised these things. He promised to get us out of the EU.

    I voted remain, but most of my friends and family here in the Midlands voted leave. I can assure you that they want to leave the EU (which they loathe) whether or not hardships result. It`s about sovereignty and national pride innit.
    I’m sorry but that’s total nonsense. You obviously haven’t spoken to many leave voters.
    I have Gallowgate, and have had long debates trying to understand their position - I`m with you, remember, I voted to remain.

    The leavers I`ve talked to believe that things will be better (because we will take back control), they believe unemployment won`t rise (because free movement ends), they believe that Immigration will fall from the EU (same reason).

    Furthermore, if the stats show that their beliefs haven`t worked out, as you suggest in your original post, they will never accept that this is due to leaving the EU. They will say that it would have been worse if we had stayed.
    You don’t know what they will say. I think in those circumstances you’ll find a lot less people admitting they voted Leave.

    Remember you only need 5-10% of people of voted Leave to blame Brexit before the whole situation changes.
    They might blame Brexit, but would it cause them to change the way they would vote?
    It might mean they vote Labour. It might mean they don’t vote at all.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833
    ydoethur said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Cookie said:


    Apart from that it would be quite odd to have a Prime Minister called Barry.

    Bazza.
    Bozza and Bazza were two pretty men.

    But they were pretty epically rubbish as leader of the opposition and PM.
    Brilliant!
    I'm now a Bazza backer. Have decided it would be brilliant to live in a country in which the two principle political figures are Bozza and Bazza.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Cookie said:


    Apart from that it would be quite odd to have a Prime Minister called Barry.

    Bazza.
    Bozza and Bazza were two pretty men.

    But they were pretty epically rubbish as leader of the opposition and PM.
    Brilliant!
    I'm now a Bazza backer. Have decided it would be brilliant to live in a country in which the two principle political figures are Bozza and Bazza.
    For much of the later eighteenth century, you could have commented that our leading politicians were just the Pitts.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Could the Lords still hold up Brexit by forcing the Government to rely on the Parliament Act?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    justin124 said:

    Could the Lords still hold up Brexit by forcing the Government to rely on the Parliament Act?

    Salisbury Convention.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    justin124 said:

    Could the Lords still hold up Brexit by forcing the Government to rely on the Parliament Act?

    It could, at the risk of half of them being removed by the Government in response
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    According to Order Order spreadsheet, 67% have made their choice. It then breaks down who supported or opposed Corbyn in 2016.

    Of the MPs that have declared, I notice that those that oppossed him vastly outnumber those who supported him. I conclude, then, that most of the 33% who haven`t yet declared are Corbyn supporters.

    I don`t know what conclusion to draw from this - just thought I`d point it out.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    HYUFD said:


    justin124 said:

    Could the Lords still hold up Brexit by forcing the Government to rely on the Parliament Act?

    It could, at the risk of half of them being removed by the Government in response
    Salisbury Convention?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    HYUFD said:


    justin124 said:

    Could the Lords still hold up Brexit by forcing the Government to rely on the Parliament Act?

    It could, at the risk of half of them being removed by the Government in response
    I think it would be very very surprising if the Lords tried to overrule a policy which has been pretty emphatically voted on in what the Opposition at least described as a single issue election. It would be as reckless as Westminster trying to block another Scottish referendum should the SNP win a majority next year.

    But more pertinently, with the Benn act gone and no Remainer majority in the Commons, if they do block it it won’t be revoke, it will be no deal, and I cannot believe they will be daft enough to vote for that.
This discussion has been closed.