Lots of (unconfirmed) reports on Twitter of a large ongoing rocket attack on the Al-Assad airbase in western Iraq. UK troops are based there along with many US troops.
And there was me just watching Nick Watt on Newsnight a few minutes ago describing the "deep disquiet" amongst RLB's close supporters over the start to her campaign over the past week including a close ally speaking about her "really bad interview" on ITN today in which she gave Corbyn 10 out of 10.
No Iowa poll has included Bloomberg. Bloomberg won't campaign in Iowa, but Iowa has no filing requirements or a deadline. If you have supporters they can simply go in the Iowa caucus and say that they support you as a first choice and that's it basically.
Given that Biden is averaging 20% in Iowa and the threshold for delegates is 15%, and Bloomberg is averaging nationally 5% but don't poll him in Iowa, what would Biden get in the Iowa polls if Bloomberg was included ?
Well, unless he gets 15% in a precinct, it's not it. The organisers say "OK, you didn't make the cut. Who's your next choice?"
It is. Lets say Biden gets 14% in a precinct but Bloomberg gets 3%, they are both out in that precinct and their votes get redistributed to the ones that get above 15%.
They both get knocked out in Iowa by splitting the vote.
But we don't know, because in Iowa they have never polled Bloomberg.
Rejoin is a foolish argument to run at this juncture because it keeps the EU issue alive. And that benefits the Tories because they can run another election on the EU.
Frankly the Labour Party should try everything they can to avoid talking about Europe.
In the future it might be a viable argument but we’re at least 15-20 years away from the time when it’s even something that could be seriously thought about. The EU will need to be persuaded that there has been a dramatic shift in UK sentiment and the rejoiners will have to win a lot of arguments for Europe that, at present, public sentiment doesn’t back. No rebate. No euro opt out. Etc, etc.
Phillips is running just to give Liz Kendall supporters someone to vote for.
I never saw Liz as the Gobby Fishwife Tendency.....
No fish are caught in Birmingham, except tench from the water under spaghetti junction.
There's still a debate (in Iowa) to go. The latest poll had it as a three way tie between Biden, Buttigieg, and Sanders, with Warren still very much in contention.
Right now, if any of the candidates is trading about a 35-40% chance for Iowa, I would simply sell them.
I would also note, as I have done a number of times, that Sanders has far from the best ground game in Iowa. Buttigieg has 27 field offices, Warren has 23, Biden 21, Klobuchar 11 and Sanders 9. Now, I know that this isn't the be-all-and-end-all, but Iowa is an organisation game. And I'm not sure how well organised Sanders is relative to his opponents.
If he is going to win, and he might well win of course, then it will be because Warren goes backwards fast. She's the one to watch.
Sanders has fewer offices but far more volunteers, from what I am hearing. The ex-Obama staffers on Pod Save America are moderates and say Bernie has the best ground game.
Two children shot by driver after throwing snowballs at cars A girl aged 12 and a 13-year-old boy were taken to hospital following the shooting in Wisconsin, say US authorities.
Rejoin is a foolish argument to run at this juncture because it keeps the EU issue alive. And that benefits the Tories because they can run another election on the EU.
Frankly the Labour Party should try everything they can to avoid talking about Europe.
In the future it might be a viable argument but we’re at least 15-20 years away from the time when it’s even something that could be seriously thought about. The EU will need to be persuaded that there has been a dramatic shift in UK sentiment and the rejoiners will have to win a lot of arguments for Europe that, at present, public sentiment doesn’t back. No rebate. No euro opt out. Etc, etc.
Phillips is running just to give Liz Kendall supporters someone to vote for.
I never saw Liz as the Gobby Fishwife Tendency.....
No fish are caught in Birmingham, except tench from the water under spaghetti junction.
Rejoin is a foolish argument to run at this juncture because it keeps the EU issue alive. And that benefits the Tories because they can run another election on the EU.
Frankly the Labour Party should try everything they can to avoid talking about Europe.
In the future it might be a viable argument but we’re at least 15-20 years away from the time when it’s even something that could be seriously thought about. The EU will need to be persuaded that there has been a dramatic shift in UK sentiment and the rejoiners will have to win a lot of arguments for Europe that, at present, public sentiment doesn’t back. No rebate. No euro opt out. Etc, etc.
Phillips is running just to give Liz Kendall supporters someone to vote for.
I never saw Liz as the Gobby Fishwife Tendency.....
No fish are caught in Birmingham, except tench from the water under spaghetti junction.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard reprtedly have claimed they re directly responsible so this is state actor attack.
Just as a note UK personnel have been co located at at least one of those facilities definitely struck, Al Asad, in recent times though possibly not these days.
Update. Erbil which also was attacked definitely had UK troops co located.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard reprtedly have claimed they re directly responsible so this is state actor attack.
Just as a note UK personnel have been co located at at least one of those facilities definitely struck, Al Asad, in recent times though possibly not these days.
Update. Erbil which also was attacked definitely had UK troops co located.
The US knew the Iranians were moving their ballistic missiles about in recent days but its the directness of the response that is going to put it up to the US administration if there are US deaths.
James Blunt stopped world war 3 happening by disobeying an order so he gets a lot of slack from me.
That was Gen. Jackson, Blunt just takes the credit for it. The MoD didn't authorise British forces to comply with Gen. Clark's order to block the runway at Pristina anyway.
Blunt did say he would rather be court martialled than fight Russians which means being an eBay Nick Drake is a better career choice for him than army officer.
And exactly how does Iran plan to attack Diego Garcia decisively. Bit of an effort. That's exactly why the B52s are there and not closer to the warm zone.
The Iranians will attack UK interests anyway as part of this, it won't take anything else.
The US knew the Iranians were moving their ballistic missiles about in recent days but its the directness of the response that is going to put it up to the US administration if there are US deaths.
Did the US really expect they could kill senior Iranian officials without US military deaths? Trump has dragged the US from a united position with allies of containing Iran in a fully compliant nuclear accord to the brink of war, after offending all his allies.
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
Has he departed from the European position?
On Sunday, with Raab's statement that they were sympathetic to the US position, and they were on the "same page". The warshipa to the gulf followed shortly after.
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
The ideal position for Britain has always been close economic ties to America because the United States always grows faster than Europe, but close military ties to Europe because the United States always behaves like a drunk teenager with a gun.
Unfortunately official policy since the Suez War has been the reverse.
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
Has he departed from the European position?
On Sunday, with Raab's statement that they were sympathetic to the US position, and they were on the "same page". The warshipa to the gulf followed shortly after.
You are not making any sense.
He issued a joint position with France and Germany and endorses the nuclear deal that Trump opposes. The action to defend our shipping is one of common sense
Maybe you need to check your sources before quoting fake news
And exactly how does Iran plan to attack Diego Garcia decisively. Bit of an effort. That's exactly why the B52s are there and not closer to the warm zone.
The Iranians will attack UK interests anyway as part of this, it won't take anything else.
That's my point, the UK could get into a war it doesn't want to get into because of those B-52 in Diego Garcia, if those B-52 are used from there.
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
Has he departed from the European position?
On Sunday, with Raab's statement that they were sympathetic to the US position, and they were on the "same page". The warshipa to the gulf followed shortly after.
You are not making any sense.
He issued a joint position with France and Germany and endorses the nuclear deal that Trump opposes. The action to defend our shipping is one of common sense
Maybe you need to check your sources before quoting fake news
You seem to have been missing the news, I'm afraid. The statement of sympathy from Raab was not in line with the French and German position, and the Iranians have called in the British ambassador since then - they didn't call in the other ambassadors. Both the statement from Raab and the two recent statements of deployment came straight after Pompeo's complaint about the European position on Saturday.
I guess now the details will be key. Has there been behind-the-scenes facesaving arrangements? If so, the Iranians will have been allowed to blow up some vacant buildings, maybe a plane or two, but no deaths.
If they've used a raft of ballistic missiles and killed troops, hard to see anything but this getting out of control rapidly.
Also, don't they vote by huddling in corners, and are likely to move to another corner if they find themselves too lonely?
That's exactly right.
The way it works is that you turn up to a dusty, cold church hall. There will be people there from each of the campaigns. Speeches will be given by the candidates' representatives. Questions will be asked.
People will then form groups, with one of the candidates representatives at the middle holding a "Bernie!" or "Amy!" flag.
If any of the groups constitute less than 15% of the people there, they are told their votes will go to waste. They therefore end up distributing. They can also end up distributing if - for example - a Warren supporter sees that Biden will win unless she switches to Sanders.
Eventually - and bear in mind people will have been in poorly heated halls for three hours at this point - the groupings are fixed. There is an official headcount. The results are then dialed in to the Democratic head office in West Des Moines. As these precinct numbers come in, they'll be posted to the Internet.
We would expect Bernie to do very well in the major cities, but less well in rural areas. By contrast, you'd expect Buttigieg to do very well in rural areas, but less well in cities. Warren and Biden have more evenly spread support.
Also, don't they vote by huddling in corners, and are likely to move to another corner if they find themselves too lonely?
That's exactly right.
The way it works is that you turn up to a dusty, cold church hall. There will be people there from each of the campaigns. Speeches will be given by the candidates' representatives. Questions will be asked.
People will then form groups, with one of the candidates representatives at the middle holding a "Bernie!" or "Amy!" flag.
If any of the groups constitute less than 15% of the people there, they are told their votes will go to waste. They therefore end up distributing. They can also end up distributing if - for example - a Warren supporter like Sanders, but sees that sticking with Warren would cause Biden to win.
Eventually - and bear in mind people will have been in poorly heated halls for three hours at this point - the groupings are fixed. There is an official headcount. The results are then dialed in to the Democratic head office in West Des Moines. As these precinct numbers come in, they'll be posted to the Internet.
We would expect Bernie to do very well in the major cities, but less well in rural areas. By contrast, you'd expect Buttigieg to do very well in rural areas, but less well in cities. Warren and Biden have more evenly spread support.
Why would Buttigieg do well in rural areas? I imagine they would be least comfortable with his sexuality. In suburbs he will do best.
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
Has he departed from the European position?
On Sunday, with Raab's statement that they were sympathetic to the US position, and they were on the "same page". The warshipa to the gulf followed shortly after.
You are not making any sense.
He issued a joint position with France and Germany and endorses the nuclear deal that Trump opposes. The action to defend our shipping is one of common sense
Maybe you need to check your sources before quoting fake news
You seem to have been missing the news, I'm afraid. The statement of sympathy from Raab was not in line with the French and German position, and the Iranians called in the British ambassador since - they didn't call in the other ambassadors. Both the statement from Raab and the two recent statements of deployment came straight after Pompeo's complaint about the European position on Saturday.
You are wrong.
Boris issued a joint statement with the EU3 and is in full agreement with Germany and France.
You seem to be using the Corbyn playbook and I know who I want in charge of our Country at this time
Johnson is going to regret not staying with the European position on this, whatever the impact on the trade deal.
Has he departed from the European position?
On Sunday, with Raab's statement that they were sympathetic to the US position, and they were on the "same page". The warshipa to the gulf followed shortly after.
You are not making any sense.
He issued a joint position with France and Germany and endorses the nuclear deal that Trump opposes. The action to defend our shipping is one of common sense
Maybe you need to check your sources before quoting fake news
You seem to have been missing the news, I'm afraid. The statement of sympathy from Raab was not in line with the French and German position, and the Iranians called in the British ambassador since - they didn't call in the other ambassadors. Both the statement from Raab and the two recent statements of deployment came straight after Pompeo's complaint about the European position on Saturday.
You are wrong.
Boris issued a joint statement with the EU3 and is in full agreement with Germany and France.
You seem to be using thecCorbyn playbook
Just fantasy, I'm afraid - and I'm not a supporter of Corbyn.
Also, don't they vote by huddling in corners, and are likely to move to another corner if they find themselves too lonely?
That's exactly right.
The way it works is that you turn up to a dusty, cold church hall. There will be people there from each of the campaigns. Speeches will be given by the candidates' representatives. Questions will be asked.
People will then form groups, with one of the candidates representatives at the middle holding a "Bernie!" or "Amy!" flag.
If any of the groups constitute less than 15% of the people there, they are told their votes will go to waste. They therefore end up distributing. They can also end up distributing if - for example - a Warren supporter like Sanders, but sees that sticking with Warren would cause Biden to win.
Eventually - and bear in mind people will have been in poorly heated halls for three hours at this point - the groupings are fixed. There is an official headcount. The results are then dialed in to the Democratic head office in West Des Moines. As these precinct numbers come in, they'll be posted to the Internet.
We would expect Bernie to do very well in the major cities, but less well in rural areas. By contrast, you'd expect Buttigieg to do very well in rural areas, but less well in cities. Warren and Biden have more evenly spread support.
It all seems rather odd to me - the candidates at these early stages don't seem to have more than one or two ideas, and perhaps not even that, and I don't get how they manage to gather up so many committed people to do all this work for them when many are pretty untested, so what are these representatives even saying to the audiences?
I guess now the details will be key. Has there been behind-the-scenes facesaving arrangements? If so, the Iranians will have been allowed to blow up some vacant buildings, maybe a plane or two, but no deaths.
If they've used a raft of ballistic missiles and killed troops, hard to see anything but this getting out of control rapidly.
Bear in mind these are not precision weapons in the Western sense of the word, they have CEPs in 10s of metres and they are fired in waves, this isnt hit a few empty buildings.
Re Iowa, remember also that you can win the popular vote, but lose the primary.
Victory is calculated using "State Delegate Equivalents". So, counties have a certain number of delegates, and they are elected proportionately. (This adds an even greater complication to the 15% rule... because some have just one or two delegates, so suddenly there's effectively a 35%, or whatever, cutoff.)
And some small counties are much bigger than others, despite electing the same number of state delegates. So winning in Van Buren county (where 199 people caucused in 2016) can be as important as Lee Country (1,700).
The biggest county is Polk, which contains Des Moines, and which has 177 precincts and about 23,000 caucus goers. It is however underrepresented in terms of delegates.
Also, don't they vote by huddling in corners, and are likely to move to another corner if they find themselves too lonely?
That's exactly right.
The way it works is that you turn up to a dusty, cold church hall. There will be people there from each of the campaigns. Speeches will be given by the candidates' representatives. Questions will be asked.
People will then form groups, with one of the candidates representatives at the middle holding a "Bernie!" or "Amy!" flag.
If any of the groups constitute less than 15% of the people there, they are told their votes will go to waste. They therefore end up distributing. They can also end up distributing if - for example - a Warren supporter like Sanders, but sees that sticking with Warren would cause Biden to win.
Eventually - and bear in mind people will have been in poorly heated halls for three hours at this point - the groupings are fixed. There is an official headcount. The results are then dialed in to the Democratic head office in West Des Moines. As these precinct numbers come in, they'll be posted to the Internet.
We would expect Bernie to do very well in the major cities, but less well in rural areas. By contrast, you'd expect Buttigieg to do very well in rural areas, but less well in cities. Warren and Biden have more evenly spread support.
It all seems rather odd to me - the candidates at these early stages don't seem to have more than one or two ideas, and perhaps not even that, and I don't get how they manage to gather up so many committed people to do all this work for them when many are pretty untested, so what are these representatives even saying to the audiences?
Bear in mind as well, that in Wayne County (four precincts and two hundred caucus goers in total...), that the kind of person sent by the Yang campaign is going to be twenty years old, and have read the candidates website. Whether that will go down well with sixty year old farmers who are angry with the trade war with China is another matter altogether.
2nd wave of ballistic missiles underway. Poor mans strategic weaponry.
Presumably the US has Patriot systems defending its Iraqi bases?
They have anti missile defences yes and they have been used.
The best MIM-104 has ever shot is about 70% interception and, sooner or later, they'll run the launchers dry. Iran has a bit of experience in this game from the the 'War of the Cities'.
Watch for any possible immediate US retaliation, they have the means to respond on Iranian territory, for example at a ballistic missile halt, within 2 hours if they choose.
2nd wave of ballistic missiles underway. Poor mans strategic weaponry.
Presumably the US has Patriot systems defending its Iraqi bases?
They have anti missile defences yes and they have been used.
The best MIM-104 has ever shot is about 70% interception and, sooner or later, they'll run the launchers dry. Iran has a bit of experience in this game from the the 'War of the Cities'.
2nd wave of ballistic missiles underway. Poor mans strategic weaponry.
Presumably the US has Patriot systems defending its Iraqi bases?
They have anti missile defences yes and they have been used.
The best MIM-104 has ever shot is about 70% interception and, sooner or later, they'll run the launchers dry. Iran has a bit of experience in this game from the the 'War of the Cities'.
You are bang on, Al Asad is potentially a bit light on AD so whilst they can hold out to a point, a multi missile multi wave attack within an hour is going to be a bollocks.
It is also worth keeping an eye on what Iranian backed militias do. They have a lot of personnel, a lot. There have been some reports that they've lobbed in some multiple launch rocket systems at some of the facilities at the same time as the ballistic missiles went in but thats got buried under the showy big stuff coming in
This is what we've waited for This is it boys this is war The president is on the line As 99 red balloons go by
Does anybody know how long 'til World War Three? I wanna know, I've Gotta book me holidee They want me in the army but I just can't go I'm far too busy listening to the radio
The whole thing's daft - I don't know why You have to laugh or else you'll cry You have to live or else you'll die You have to laugh or else you'll cry
This missile strike could end up in the category of piss poor. The question for the US is whether the symbology counts for more than its effectiveness.
Well, you lose if Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee and then wins the Presidency.
Or you lose if Mr Trump is replaced by either Nikki Halley or Ivanka Trump on the Republican side. (And then they become the next President.)
You need to check the small print on this. If Mr Trump wins in November, is he the next President? Or is the bet deferred until he ceases to be President?
The 6-1 sounds like pretty poor odds. There is perhaps a 15% chance that Warren or Klobuchar (or Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee). And I'm not sure any of them would be odds on against President Trump. It's also pretty unlikely that Trump will not be the nominee. (Although it's by no means impossible. If he had a health issue in the next four months, the Republicans would need to find a new candidate.)
So, 1-8 is I think generous so long as Trump being reelected counts as you winning the bet. You can also hedge out a little of your exposure by making small bets on Klobuchar (85-1 for next President), and Warren (20-1).
As an aside, Nikki Halley is rumoured to be in-line to replace Mike Pence as VP. One way you could lose the bet would be if she did become the VP candidate and then President Trump was unable to take (health or some other issue).
Right now, Male Next President is 1.08 on Betfair (albeit including Trump winnng in 2020). So the 1-8 (effectively 1.12) is pretty good value.
"A Ukrainian Boeing-737 with 180 people onboard has crashed in Iran, according to local media.
The aircraft belonging to Ukraine International Airlines crashed just after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport in Tehran, said the Fars state news agency.
Preliminary reports suggest that the plane was en route to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
It is unclear whether the incident is linked to the Iran-US confrontation."
This assumes that ex-felons in pro-GOP districts also lean pro-GOP, which isn't a no-brainer, but I guess it's right at least for the presidential race, since the core constituency for MAGA is low-education white people.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
He also says:
Despite concerns about a potential downturn, Mr Carney was optimistic about the City’s prospects after Brexit. He made clear there was no point in London, as a world financial centre, being a rule taker from Brussels.
He urged the UK government to avoid aligning its financial regulations with those in the EU in the hope of better trade terms after Brexit.
“It is not desirable at all to align our approaches, to tie our hands and to outsource regulation and effectively supervision of the world’s leading complex financial system to another jurisdiction,” he said.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
American firepower is huge. It could destroy a lot in a very short period of time..
My experience with some climate change fanatics makes me wonder if this was an idea that got out of hand. They can be like religious zealots convinced that others don’t share their apocalyptic vision of the future. Can you imagine how quickly it will turn if just one of those charged is an environmental activist ?
I suspect the bushfires in Australia started of natural causes to start with (and at a higher rate from normal) but were exacerbated by “copycat” arson once they were widely reported, both from drama-seeking youths and also the loony wing of the eco movement.
It won’t have escaped anyone’s attention at how high-profile and political this became so quickly, and humans will often rationalise anything they feel they need or want to do to exploit that.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
American firepower is huge. It could destroy a lot in a very short period of time..
The best thing for the US to do would be to laugh and shrug it off, but not too much, and it would then probably de-escalate slowly.
Mr. Powerhouse, doubt it'll change much. It'll be a lone wolf with mental health problems, or reported as such.
Ball's in the US court now. Or Trump's, to be precise. Fortunately he's full of foresight and wouldn't make a foolish tactical decision without contemplating the longer term implications.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
He also says:
Despite concerns about a potential downturn, Mr Carney was optimistic about the City’s prospects after Brexit. He made clear there was no point in London, as a world financial centre, being a rule taker from Brussels.
He urged the UK government to avoid aligning its financial regulations with those in the EU in the hope of better trade terms after Brexit.
“It is not desirable at all to align our approaches, to tie our hands and to outsource regulation and effectively supervision of the world’s leading complex financial system to another jurisdiction,” he said.
This is exactly right, and why I favour a pretty hard exit in services even at the cost of passporting etc.
If we’re going to be out we need full regulatory control over financial services, and the City is big and ugly enough to thrive globally regardless. And to probably still thrive in Europe too as it offers services and liquidity that the rest of the EU will struggle to match.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
American firepower is huge. It could destroy a lot in a very short period of time..
The best thing for the US to do would be to laugh and shrug it off, but not too much, and it would then probably de-escalate slowly.
But, I doubt that’s going to happen.
I was just pointing out what America could do....not saying it should, but you never know with Trump.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
He also says:
Despite concerns about a potential downturn, Mr Carney was optimistic about the City’s prospects after Brexit. He made clear there was no point in London, as a world financial centre, being a rule taker from Brussels.
He urged the UK government to avoid aligning its financial regulations with those in the EU in the hope of better trade terms after Brexit.
“It is not desirable at all to align our approaches, to tie our hands and to outsource regulation and effectively supervision of the world’s leading complex financial system to another jurisdiction,” he said.
This is exactly right, and why I favour a pretty hard exit in services even at the cost of passporting etc.
If we’re going to be out we need full regulatory control over financial services, and the City is big and ugly enough to thrive globally regardless. And to probably still thrive in Europe too as it offers services and liquidity that the rest of the EU will struggle to match.
Do you think the EU realise they might have overplayed their negotiations? The first WA was a major victory for them, and seen as one. On every point the UK was diminished and out negotiated. I can only assume they thought they could get the whole thing at the time overturned and if not, don’t worry they’ll be a vassal satellite state that will dance to their tune. This seems much less likely now. If the city of London doesn’t converge with what they want and is not diminished by it, other areas of the economy will have similar freedom.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
Options 2 and 3 would only make sense if they expected Trump to act rationally. This strikes me as a bold assumption given his past record.
My experience with some climate change fanatics makes me wonder if this was an idea that got out of hand. They can be like religious zealots convinced that others don’t share their apocalyptic vision of the future. Can you imagine how quickly it will turn if just one of those charged is an environmental activist ?
There are idiots in all sections of society. Anybody who fights climate change by setting things on fire would be an obvious candidate. Anybody who ignores science and logic to deny that climate change is happening is also a candidate.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
He also says:
Despite concerns about a potential downturn, Mr Carney was optimistic about the City’s prospects after Brexit. He made clear there was no point in London, as a world financial centre, being a rule taker from Brussels.
He urged the UK government to avoid aligning its financial regulations with those in the EU in the hope of better trade terms after Brexit.
“It is not desirable at all to align our approaches, to tie our hands and to outsource regulation and effectively supervision of the world’s leading complex financial system to another jurisdiction,” he said.
This is exactly right, and why I favour a pretty hard exit in services even at the cost of passporting etc.
If we’re going to be out we need full regulatory control over financial services, and the City is big and ugly enough to thrive globally regardless. And to probably still thrive in Europe too as it offers services and liquidity that the rest of the EU will struggle to match.
Do you think the EU realise they might have overplayed their negotiations? The first WA was a major victory for them, and seen as one. On every point the UK was diminished and out negotiated. I can only assume they thought they could get the whole thing at the time overturned and if not, don’t worry they’ll be a vassal satellite state that will dance to their tune. This seems much less likely now. If the city of London doesn’t converge with what they want and is not diminished by it, other areas of the economy will have similar freedom.
The EU (or at the very least, its member states rather than its apparatchiks) should have realised by now that the bigger game isn’t to make an example of the UK pour encourager les autres, a defensive and insular reaction, but to recognise that to protect European continental freedoms and security it is going to need to do a very practical deal with the UK on trade, defence and security. This will need to include new bilateral institutions and arrangements.
That is where the real politick is leading us. The world is moving on and Europe risks being left behind, and becoming the playground of others.
So far, it’s unclear if they yet fully realise or understand this, and still less if they’ll act on it.
Just found out that Zak Crawley, England’s new test match opening batsmen, is the son of the biggest trader on the LIFFE market, where I used to work
Well Terry Crawley was in the BTPs and made his fortune when Italy were allowed to enter the Euro. What pit were you in? I ran the European end for Pru Bache for 4 years
On topic the caucuses are just ridiculous. I really don’t understand why the Americans persist in them. Undemocratic, positively encouraging and rewarding fanatics over ordinary citizens they have nothing to commend them.
Comments
Worrying if true.
Lets say Biden gets 14% in a precinct but Bloomberg gets 3%, they are both out in that precinct and their votes get redistributed to the ones that get above 15%.
They both get knocked out in Iowa by splitting the vote.
But we don't know, because in Iowa they have never polled Bloomberg.
https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1214687432731430913?s=21
Clinton is an appalling campaigner with dreadful strategy.
Ergo...
It was a warning sign that she would lose the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/
(You need to click on 'More candidates').
Also, don't they vote by huddling in corners, and are likely to move to another corner if they find themselves too lonely?
Two children shot by driver after throwing snowballs at cars
A girl aged 12 and a 13-year-old boy were taken to hospital following the shooting in Wisconsin, say US authorities.
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-shot-by-driver-after-throwing-snowballs-at-cars-11903164
If they were convinced that Trump was going to attack anyway why not attack first ?
The Trump administration never offered Iran a face saving choice.
Just as a note UK personnel have been co located at at least one of those facilities definitely struck, Al Asad, in recent times though possibly not these days.
Update. Erbil which also was attacked definitely had UK troops co located.
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-launches-revenge-rocket-attacks-at-us-troops-in-iraq-11903432
https://twitter.com/NewsBreaking/status/1214693550383714304
Blunt did say he would rather be court martialled than fight Russians which means being an eBay Nick Drake is a better career choice for him than army officer.
The Iranians will attack UK interests anyway as part of this, it won't take anything else.
Source maybe
Unfortunately official policy since the Suez War has been the reverse.
He issued a joint position with France and Germany and endorses the nuclear deal that Trump opposes. The action to defend our shipping is one of common sense
Maybe you need to check your sources before quoting fake news
If they've used a raft of ballistic missiles and killed troops, hard to see anything but this getting out of control rapidly.
The way it works is that you turn up to a dusty, cold church hall. There will be people there from each of the campaigns. Speeches will be given by the candidates' representatives. Questions will be asked.
People will then form groups, with one of the candidates representatives at the middle holding a "Bernie!" or "Amy!" flag.
If any of the groups constitute less than 15% of the people there, they are told their votes will go to waste. They therefore end up distributing. They can also end up distributing if - for example - a Warren supporter sees that Biden will win unless she switches to Sanders.
Eventually - and bear in mind people will have been in poorly heated halls for three hours at this point - the groupings are fixed. There is an official headcount. The results are then dialed in to the Democratic head office in West Des Moines. As these precinct numbers come in, they'll be posted to the Internet.
We would expect Bernie to do very well in the major cities, but less well in rural areas. By contrast, you'd expect Buttigieg to do very well in rural areas, but less well in cities. Warren and Biden have more evenly spread support.
Boris issued a joint statement with the EU3 and is in full agreement with Germany and France.
You seem to be using the Corbyn playbook and I know who I want in charge of our Country at this time
This is it boys this is war
The president is on the line
As 99 red balloons go by
Victory is calculated using "State Delegate Equivalents". So, counties have a certain number of delegates, and they are elected proportionately. (This adds an even greater complication to the 15% rule... because some have just one or two delegates, so suddenly there's effectively a 35%, or whatever, cutoff.)
And some small counties are much bigger than others, despite electing the same number of state delegates. So winning in Van Buren county (where 199 people caucused in 2016) can be as important as Lee Country (1,700).
The biggest county is Polk, which contains Des Moines, and which has 177 precincts and about 23,000 caucus goers. It is however underrepresented in terms of delegates.
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1214693426274480129
You can imagine the jokes that can be made.
What do you guys think?
Is this free money?
I wanna know, I've Gotta book me holidee
They want me in the army but I just can't go
I'm far too busy listening to the radio
The whole thing's daft - I don't know why
You have to laugh or else you'll cry
You have to live or else you'll die
You have to laugh or else you'll cry
Or you lose if Mr Trump is replaced by either Nikki Halley or Ivanka Trump on the Republican side. (And then they become the next President.)
You need to check the small print on this. If Mr Trump wins in November, is he the next President? Or is the bet deferred until he ceases to be President?
The 6-1 sounds like pretty poor odds. There is perhaps a 15% chance that Warren or Klobuchar (or Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee). And I'm not sure any of them would be odds on against President Trump. It's also pretty unlikely that Trump will not be the nominee. (Although it's by no means impossible. If he had a health issue in the next four months, the Republicans would need to find a new candidate.)
So, 1-8 is I think generous so long as Trump being reelected counts as you winning the bet. You can also hedge out a little of your exposure by making small bets on Klobuchar (85-1 for next President), and Warren (20-1).
As an aside, Nikki Halley is rumoured to be in-line to replace Mike Pence as VP. One way you could lose the bet would be if she did become the VP candidate and then President Trump was unable to take (health or some other issue).
Right now, Male Next President is 1.08 on Betfair (albeit including Trump winnng in 2020). So the 1-8 (effectively 1.12) is pretty good value.
https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1213002373766901760
https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/1214754170902925312?s=20
https://twitter.com/NewsBreaking/status/1214760765665599489
The aircraft belonging to Ukraine International Airlines crashed just after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport in Tehran, said the Fars state news agency.
Preliminary reports suggest that the plane was en route to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
It is unclear whether the incident is linked to the Iran-US confrontation."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51029994
https://samchui.com/2020/01/08/boeing-737-crashes-after-takeoff-in-iran/#.XhVgsi2Q1UN
And a pretty new plane - 3.5 years old. Not that Boeing or the NTSB are going to get anywhere near the crash site...
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1214565062909710338
This assumes that ex-felons in pro-GOP districts also lean pro-GOP, which isn't a no-brainer, but I guess it's right at least for the presidential race, since the core constituency for MAGA is low-education white people.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the outgoing governor warned that central banks were running out of the ammunition needed to combat a downturn.
Carney's version of "sorry, there's no money left".
Despite concerns about a potential downturn, Mr Carney was optimistic about the City’s prospects after Brexit. He made clear there was no point in London, as a world financial centre, being a rule taker from Brussels.
He urged the UK government to avoid aligning its financial regulations with those in the EU in the hope of better trade terms after Brexit.
“It is not desirable at all to align our approaches, to tie our hands and to outsource regulation and effectively supervision of the world’s leading complex financial system to another jurisdiction,” he said.
The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran's motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.
First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal -- hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles -- provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security -- that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse -- while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.
It won’t have escaped anyone’s attention at how high-profile and political this became so quickly, and humans will often rationalise anything they feel they need or want to do to exploit that.
But, I doubt that’s going to happen.
Mr. Powerhouse, doubt it'll change much. It'll be a lone wolf with mental health problems, or reported as such.
Ball's in the US court now. Or Trump's, to be precise. Fortunately he's full of foresight and wouldn't make a foolish tactical decision without contemplating the longer term implications.
If we’re going to be out we need full regulatory control over financial services, and the City is big and ugly enough to thrive globally regardless. And to probably still thrive in Europe too as it offers services and liquidity that the rest of the EU will struggle to match.
Bloody narrow escape.
What were they thinking? Were they thinking?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Anybody who ignores science and logic to deny that climate change is happening is also a candidate.
That is where the real politick is leading us. The world is moving on and Europe risks being left behind, and becoming the playground of others.
So far, it’s unclear if they yet fully realise or understand this, and still less if they’ll act on it.
What pit were you in?
I ran the European end for Pru Bache for 4 years