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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on 78 year old Bernie to win Iowa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on 78 year old Bernie to win Iowa
We are now less than four weeks off the Iowa caucuses – the first election in the prolonged process of choosing the Democratic nominee. Even though the polls have Buttigieg, Biden and Bernie level-pegging that’s not how punters see it. The 78yo socialist from Vermont who is not even a Democrat is attracting the bets as having the best chance.
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I'm going to be living in the poor house after primary season.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YoVEJY6TBhHvfrmNoApfpvOHNtNM6t6O/view
https://twitter.com/MarkOgden_/status/1214647064044408833
Rejoin is a foolish argument to run at this juncture because it keeps the EU issue alive. And that benefits the Tories because they can run another election on the EU.
Frankly the Labour Party should try everything they can to avoid talking about Europe.
In the future it might be a viable argument but we’re at least 15-20 years away from the time when it’s even something that could be seriously thought about. The EU will need to be persuaded that there has been a dramatic shift in UK sentiment and the rejoiners will have to win a lot of arguments for Europe that, at present, public sentiment doesn’t back. No rebate. No euro opt out. Etc, etc.
There will come a time in this parliament where more Tory MPs will be rebellious but not in the first votes following an election on a bill they all promised to support.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-7852091/Fleabag-star-Andrew-Scott-accepts-offer-night-new-man-posing-shirtless-Grindr.html
Ole has had his chance and failed and sentiment cannot come into it
Amazing though. Writing jokes will soon become impossible if things carry on like this.
Bloomberg is not exactly charismatic but at least he knows how to run things. Biden is bordering on senile already. Warren is occasionally amusing but has never ran anything and Buttigieg has been mayor of a small town. Its tragic. As we have seen all too recently we are talking about a position that gives the holder the power of life and death over pretty much anyone on the planet.
Is Thornberry def not?
Best thing that ever happened was Woodward scaring off Klopp when he tried to hire Klopp.
So in one sense, Sanders can't "be a Democrat" as there's no membership for him to obtain. It's not at all uncommon for candidates to secure, through primary elections, a party's nomination and not be at all in sympathy with the principles that the party is traditionally associated with, with David Clarke, the former "Democratic" sheriff of Milwaukie County, Wisconsin, being a good example. (US parties also don't really have policies in the sense that UK ones do, it's the candidates that have policies.)
The Man U job is like Arsenal, a poisoned chalice.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1214666205920972802
The down side of that is that it would only make RLB winning even more unbearable, so to mitigate the risk of hospitalisation through self-inflicted personal injury I laid a bit off on her at 7/2.
I am only red on the rest, but would still be delighted if Nandy won. Personal betting outcomes pale into insignificance compared to what is at stake for Labour in this election.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/01/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden-not-same-party-094642
Both questions are foolish.
The Democrats figured out what the Tories long ago did - in an FPTP type system, you need to be a broad church. Let’s hope they don’t forget that.
I should also add that there are of course party organizations from precinct and town committees on up all the way to the DNC and RNC but they are more administrative than anything else. No-one can really be "expelled" from the party although within a caucus in a legislature they could be expelled from that caucus. That's usually only happens when someone gets convicted of a crime, not usually for ideological reasons.
Are the Dems of Iowa absolutely bonkers? I think not. Buttigieg will win Iowa.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/bernie-sanders-joe-biden-2020-democratic-primary/index.html
Oh FFS x 1000.
Not only am I red on Bernie, but he will lose even more biggly than Warren McGovern.
No Iowa poll has included Bloomberg.
Bloomberg won't campaign in Iowa, but Iowa has no filing requirements or a deadline.
If you have supporters they can simply go in the Iowa caucus and say that they support you as a first choice and that's it basically.
Given that Biden is averaging 20% in Iowa and the threshold for delegates is 15%, and Bloomberg is averaging nationally 5% but don't poll him in Iowa, what would Biden get in the Iowa polls if Bloomberg was included ?
Dark horse alert.
Of course Bernie Sanders can win if there is a big war in the Middle East.
No, no, no. no. Dems don't do it. You may feel good for a night or two, but you will have four years to repent your stupidity.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7862453/Multiple-rockets-hit-Taji-military-base-Iraq-American-British-troops-based.html
Right now, if any of the candidates is trading about a 35-40% chance for Iowa, I would simply sell them.
I would also note, as I have done a number of times, that Sanders has far from the best ground game in Iowa. Buttigieg has 27 field offices, Warren has 23, Biden 21, Klobuchar 11 and Sanders 9. Now, I know that this isn't the be-all-and-end-all, but Iowa is an organisation game. And I'm not sure how well organised Sanders is relative to his opponents.
If he is going to win, and he might well win of course, then it will be because Warren goes backwards fast. She's the one to watch.
(I suspect the Labour Party MP in the family might go for her. Not confirmed, but...)
In Des Moines, almost every TV advert is for a candidate. In one evening I must have seen five Steyer commercials. Around a third of yards have a sign (Gabbard, by the way, does rather better in yard signs than polls). The place is "Primary Crazy".
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/changing-my-relationship-with-twitter-ff4d3c0106b5
He's right though - more time reading books is good.
"Lisa Nandy is the one candidate for Labour leader I could ever dream of voting for."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/aliens-among-us-running-leader-labour-party/
Given that Iowa is extremely close and there is a 15% threshold that's a big problem, we don't know how many Bloomberg suppporters are in Iowa or who does it hit more and by how much.
(Of course it fucking has, Jess....)