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SystemSystem Posts: 12,772
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election?

 

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    1st
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,996
    You're better off betting on Ian Lavery or Rebecca Long Bailey to become Labour leader, as the odds are better, the payout is sooner, and it amounts to the same thing.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited January 2020
    If the tradition of the next election result being what the previous election should have been continues, then it will be a Conservative majority of around 40.

    Which is what you would expect if Labour do a bit better under a new Leader.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,494
    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I am backing Starmer for next Labour leader and have joined the party to vote for him.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.

    Doesn't mean it's a no bet at 4-1

    Joe Root makes it past the 30s. Going to sit down, I'm getting light headed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,942
    It really depends on the next Labour leader, but I'll go for a no.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I am backing Starmer for next Labour leader and have joined the party to vote for him.

    Phillips boasting about her fundraising, but Starmer can afford astroturf.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,388
    Boro 1 Spurs 0
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,018
    maaarsh said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.

    Doesn't mean it's a no bet at 4-1

    Joe Root makes it past the 30s. Going to sit down, I'm getting light headed.
    I'm getting slightly bothered about whether we'll be able to bowl the Saffirs out now.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    edited January 2020
    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    It seems unlikely. But we live in strange times.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,304
    edited January 2020
    No, given after the boundary changes the Tories will have a majority of 104 already and after 13 or 14 years in opposition any half decent opposition should be aiming for power not facing an even bigger government majority.

    In 1964, after 13 years in opposition, Labour gained 59 seats under Wilson to win with a majority of 4. Even in 1992, despite losing, after 13 years in opposition Labour gained 42 seats under Kinnock.

    In 2010 after 13 years in opposition Cameron led the Tories back to Government and being largest party, albeit without a majority but with 96 Tory seat gains.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    You have to almost admire Keir Royale's brass neck: after torpedoing Labour and Corbyn in an all-out push for Remain, he now airily declares that the issue is settled and it's time for everyone to move on...
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Northern Ireland Update :

    Talks are still ongoing but deal isn't likely and could be an Easter election, hopefully.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,996
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I am backing Starmer for next Labour leader and have joined the party to vote for him.

    Welcome back!

    How do you rate the other candidates' chances?

    What would be the worst leadership outcome for you?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,388
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    ThomasNashe said:

    Boro 1 Spurs 0

    Surprise to no one.... I've got boro at 11-2 winning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,717
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1213796414939189249
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,717
    https://twitter.com/caitlinmoran/status/1213492722503442434
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,388
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Boro 1 Spurs 0

    Surprise to no one.... I've got boro at 11-2 winning.
    And 1-1 now.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1213796414939189249

    We need a stretched out leadership debate! I stick to my suggestion the other night, the Iran stuff is a 'black swan' event and could shape the leadership for Labour. The most anti war, anti american candidate will take the crown.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    The lib dems on the course for victory... a simple mash up of their election policies should work.. A self identifying skills wallet....
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    My local constituency labour party has a motion to denounce leadership candidates who played a part in the party's brexit policy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,233
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    What odds would you give me?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    speedy2 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
    Scotland rarely has a Prime Minister with public approval.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,631
    OT @rcs1000 are the advert links broken? I've just tried clicking on an advert at the top and have gone nowhere. It is probably a duff advert but if there is an issue with the page then it can affect the health of pb.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    StuartDickson said:

    speedy2 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
    Scotland rarely has a Prime Minister with public approval.
    Surely that isn't the only reason Scotland is a very unhappy country?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,959
    OldKingCole said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.

    Doesn't mean it's a no bet at 4-1

    Joe Root makes it past the 30s. Going to sit down, I'm getting light headed.
    I'm getting slightly bothered about whether we'll be able to bowl the Saffirs out now.
    Good effort from Sibley.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    The lib dems on the course for victory... a simple mash up of their election policies should work.. A self identifying skills wallet....
    Only weirdo skills wallets need apply.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,304
    speedy2 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
    France always has a President with over 50% of the vote after the second round run off, even if they are often only the first choice of a small minority
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,959
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    What odds would you give me?
    When there’s already a market, why would you expect better odds ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,856
    BluestBlue said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    You have to almost admire Keir Royale's brass neck: after torpedoing Labour and Corbyn in an all-out push for Remain, he now airily declares that the issue is settled and it's time for everyone to move on...
    I think that's OK, honestly - you lose something you really wanted, you don't go on about it indefinitely unless you want to look totally obsessed.

    Gabs, you didn't give the impression before the election that you main objection to Labour was our Brexit policy. Could it be that you're simply a Conservative, and dislike whatever a current or future Labour leader might say?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    StuartDickson said:

    speedy2 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
    Scotland rarely has a Prime Minister with public approval.
    I think I’m right in saying that seven PMs since WWII had a purality of the votes in Scotland. I’m not sure I would describe that as “rarely”.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    England net 261-2......
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.

    Doesn't mean it's a no bet at 4-1

    Joe Root makes it past the 30s. Going to sit down, I'm getting light headed.
    I'm getting slightly bothered about whether we'll be able to bowl the Saffirs out now.
    Good effort from Sibley.
    365 are 10/11 England under 421.5 in second innings. wouldnt they declare before then even if they aren't bowled out?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,560
    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    Well it didn't go quite as far as he wanted it to, but yes he was instrumental in getting them even to the silly position they found themselves in. But I suspect the fact of being so much a remainer will play in his favour with most members, no matter that it contributed to defeat.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    MarqueeMark said:

    England net 261-2......

    You had to, didn't you?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    England net 261-2......

    You had to, didn't you?
    Needed livening up.....
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    Yes, the tory majority will increase because of continued polarisation which under our current system will help tories.

    Meanwhile Bernie is looking good in Iowa.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1213845940450271233
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1213845940450271233
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    I'd be happy if I was Sanders or Biden, and reasonably happy if I was Buttigieg or Klobuchar. Not great for Warren, though frankly not too awful either. She's trailing for now but close enough to be in the mix given how volatile these two are.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,018
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1213796414939189249

    We need a stretched out leadership debate! I stick to my suggestion the other night, the Iran stuff is a 'black swan' event and could shape the leadership for Labour. The most anti war, anti american candidate will take the crown.
    It is indeed a Black Swan, and not just for Labour. It'll push Boris into supporting EITHER the European position OR the American.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    kle4 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    Well it didn't go quite as far as he wanted it to, but yes he was instrumental in getting them even to the silly position they found themselves in. But I suspect the fact of being so much a remainer will play in his favour with most members, no matter that it contributed to defeat.
    Sorry, but he sounded really unconvincing on Marr, trying to dig himself out of the Brexit hole. If that was the best his top lawlyerly QC skills could come up with....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    MarqueeMark said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    England net 261-2......

    You had to, didn't you?
    Needed livening up.....
    Anyhow, the cricket now really is classic Doms
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    NickPalmer said:

    BluestBlue said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    You have to almost admire Keir Royale's brass neck: after torpedoing Labour and Corbyn in an all-out push for Remain, he now airily declares that the issue is settled and it's time for everyone to move on...
    I think that's OK, honestly - you lose something you really wanted, you don't go on about it indefinitely unless you want to look totally obsessed.

    Gabs, you didn't give the impression before the election that you main objection to Labour was our Brexit policy. Could it be that you're simply a Conservative, and dislike whatever a current or future Labour leader might say?
    My main objection to the Labour Party was and is its institutional Anti-Semitism. I will judge the new leader rapidly on how quickly they get to grips with this. But I am self-aware enough to know that the evidence shows Brexit policy was the main thing that saw Labour collapse - apparently the vast majority of left wingers in this country don't care about Jews. Starmer was the man primarily responsible for this Brexit policy.

    And, for the record, I voted Lib Dem, and explained why before the election, when I was still expecting a hung parliament.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    MaxPB said:

    It really depends on the next Labour leader, but I'll go for a no.

    And which Labour leader contenter is going to save a whole swathe of the new marginals in the north and Midlands falling to the tories?
    An increased Tory majority is likely for a number of reasons. One of them being the 2% Brexit party vote will go to them and boundary changes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,560
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    Well it didn't go quite as far as he wanted it to, but yes he was instrumental in getting them even to the silly position they found themselves in. But I suspect the fact of being so much a remainer will play in his favour with most members, no matter that it contributed to defeat.
    Sorry, but he sounded really unconvincing on Marr, trying to dig himself out of the Brexit hole. If that was the best his top lawlyerly QC skills could come up with....
    I can believe it was not very convincing, but I'm trying to put myself in the mind of a super remainer selectorate, and whether they like his intent more than the effect of it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,018
    Gabs3 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    BluestBlue said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I find it amazing that after Labour's Brexit position sunk the party (2nd reason was Brexit, 1st reason was Corbyn but when you dig into it, that was from distrust on Brexit), the architect of that Brexit policy is favourite for leader.

    You have to almost admire Keir Royale's brass neck: after torpedoing Labour and Corbyn in an all-out push for Remain, he now airily declares that the issue is settled and it's time for everyone to move on...
    I think that's OK, honestly - you lose something you really wanted, you don't go on about it indefinitely unless you want to look totally obsessed.

    Gabs, you didn't give the impression before the election that you main objection to Labour was our Brexit policy. Could it be that you're simply a Conservative, and dislike whatever a current or future Labour leader might say?
    My main objection to the Labour Party was and is its institutional Anti-Semitism. I will judge the new leader rapidly on how quickly they get to grips with this. But I am self-aware enough to know that the evidence shows Brexit policy was the main thing that saw Labour collapse - apparently the vast majority of left wingers in this country don't care about Jews. Starmer was the man primarily responsible for this Brexit policy.

    And, for the record, I voted Lib Dem, and explained why before the election, when I was still expecting a hung parliament.
    I do hope the LibDems come up with a leader and a coherent strategy soon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,233
    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,717
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I'll get back to you on that award if Buttigieg is POTUS. :smile:
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited January 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    paulyork64 said:

    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say it's more likely the majority will decrease.

    Doesn't mean it's a no bet at 4-1

    Joe Root makes it past the 30s. Going to sit down, I'm getting light headed.
    I'm getting slightly bothered about whether we'll be able to bowl the Saffirs out now.
    Good effort from Sibley.
    365 are 10/11 England under 421.5 in second innings. wouldnt they declare before then even if they aren't bowled out?
    should have backed it. never mind.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/caitlinmoran/status/1213492722503442434

    Very likely to be over factoring in people she knows and extrapolating into an inaccurate conclusion
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,388
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
    Rory is the wildcard, and likely to take votes that would otherwise go to Bailey. But I agree that Siobhan Benita will get absolutely nowhere.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    ThomasNashe said:

    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
    Rory is the wildcard, and likely to take votes that would otherwise go to Bailey. But I agree that Siobhan Benita will get absolutely nowhere.
    He might pick up a bunch of votes, he might be a damp squib. But Bailey is likely to have a core of committed Tories who will probably be enough to keep him 2nd, particularly with Rory and Benita and Berry splitting the same 'Cosmopolitan Liberal' vote.

    It's not a sure thing, but 3/1 is madness.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,942
    I think by far the biggest reason to think that a higher Con Maj is a realistic prospect is that the LibDems might get a credible leader and policies. If they finally start achieving their potential, it is easy to see the opposition parties as a whole doing worse than they did a few weeks back.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,942
    Incidentally, I've been listening to a couple of political podcasts from October last year - already feels about a century ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    Mr. Fishing, I think that only happens if there's a Labour split.

    Otherwise, a rising Lib Dem party is likely to take seats mostly from the Conservatives.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,018
    edited January 2020
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fishing, I think that only happens if there's a Labour split.

    Otherwise, a rising Lib Dem party is likely to take seats mostly from the Conservatives.

    Seconded. But I do wonder whether the Green will make gains in the next locals and the Scottish and Welsh elections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,358
    edited January 2020
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
    Especially with 2-terms Mayor Boris giving him lots of visible support.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    King Cole, the rise of 'green' politics does make it possible that the Greens could rise significantly but I think that largely depends on the established left wing parties doing poorly.

    Greens could do well at PR type elections, although one of those might never be held again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,304
    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1213845940450271233

    So the Sanders surge is real then, tied for the lead in Iowa and with a clear lead in New Hampshire
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,942
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fishing, I think that only happens if there's a Labour split.

    Otherwise, a rising Lib Dem party is likely to take seats mostly from the Conservatives.

    That could indeed happen but I'm not sure it will. If you look at the LibDem+Labour share of the vote over the past year, it has been fairly constant, as has the Tory/Brexit party share. Of course a) votes aren't seats and b) just because something has happened, doesn't mean it will. But if the new LibDem leader is a Social Democrat rather than an Orange Booker (are those terms still relevant), he could be more attractive to socialists. He'd certainly get substantial Guardianista support I'd imagine, though the remains of the red wall and Labour's ethnic minorities would doubtless stay loyal.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    What odds would you give me?
    What odds would you like?
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Lewis Hamilton?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    edited January 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    MarqueeMark said:

    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
    Especially with 2-terms Mayor Boris giving him lots of visible support.
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    Shaun Bailey to come 2nd in London Mayor ('Win without Khan') at 3/1 is my tip of the year. Skybet. Should be decently odds on.
    Stewart won't be second anyway.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    Yes but cricket is depressing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    Mr. Machine, Hamilton was 1.57 for the title, last I checked.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2020
    OldKingCole said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fishing, I think that only happens if there's a Labour split.

    Otherwise, a rising Lib Dem party is likely to take seats mostly from the Conservatives.

    Seconded. But I do wonder whether the Green will make gains in the next locals and the Scottish and Welsh elections.
    Scotland, maybe. But then, the Scottish Greens are a genuine party, based in Scotland, forming policies for Scotland.

    There is no Welsh Green party. There is a Green Party of EnglandandWales.

    Green Party members in Wales voted by a substantial majority to remain part of the Green Party of England, rather than become a separate party, as is the case in Scotland.

    The Green invaders in Wales are the purest and most unadulterated colonialists since Cecil Rhodes. They should be shunned and reviled.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Machine, Hamilton was 1.57 for the title, last I checked.



    He's 4-6 in powers, providing odds checker is updated​.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,756
    edited January 2020
    MarqueeMark said:

    StuartDickson said:

    speedy2 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    Lib Dems 33-1 most seats is a joke, should be 5,000-1.

    Any other would allow for the emergence of a British 'en marche', though the fortunes of TIG don't suggest that that's particularly likely.
    The electoral system in Britain doesn not favour centrists like in France.

    In France you can become President with less than 20% as long as you are 2nd and the most centrist candidate, that's why it's always a very unhappy country because it rarely has a President that has public approval.
    Scotland rarely has a Prime Minister with public approval.
    Surely that isn't the only reason Scotland is a very unhappy country?
    Luckily not so unhappy as to riot in our major cities (Ragers supporters excepted), protest outside Holyrood with mock gallows, or indeed murder our politicians. Let's hope the contagion doesn't spread northwards.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,452
    edited January 2020
    Fishing said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fishing, I think that only happens if there's a Labour split.

    Otherwise, a rising Lib Dem party is likely to take seats mostly from the Conservatives.

    That could indeed happen but I'm not sure it will. If you look at the LibDem+Labour share of the vote over the past year, it has been fairly constant, as has the Tory/Brexit party share. Of course a) votes aren't seats and b) just because something has happened, doesn't mean it will. But if the new LibDem leader is a Social Democrat rather than an Orange Booker (are those terms still relevant), he could be more attractive to socialists. He'd certainly get substantial Guardianista support I'd imagine, though the remains of the red wall and Labour's ethnic minorities would doubtless stay loyal.
    All liberals are social democrats. Some are fiscally "dryer" than others (orange bookers).

    Davey is an orange booker. I`m rooting for him.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    @Morris_Dancer



    Looks like it is updated.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    Mr. Machine, still not inclined to back that.

    Short odds over a long time scale don't appeal.

    Plus I'm already green on Hamilton based on a couple of bets (to beat Schumacher's win record and to score under a certain number of wins this year).
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited January 2020
    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    Wonder what the APR is on that return. 6% or so return in however many minutes it took to be paid. Compounded over a year...

    Feels like the bookie would be within their rights to declare a palp, unless this was on Betfair.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    How did you manage to bet something already over?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    Wonder what the APR is on that return. 6% or so return in however many minutes it took to be paid. Compounded over a year...

    Feels like the bookie would be within their rights to declare a palp, unless this was on Betfair.
    Betfair, yes
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    edited January 2020
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Machine, still not inclined to back that.

    Short odds over a long time scale don't appeal.

    Plus I'm already green on Hamilton based on a couple of bets (to beat Schumacher's win record and to score under a certain number of wins this year).

    Your a member of a political Betting forum / Website, most or almost all politics bets are long term with shortish odds.

    What price did you get that?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    How did you manage to bet something already over?
    Because the people laying it didn’t know it was over I guess
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    How did you manage to bet something already over?
    Because the people laying it didn’t know it was over I guess
    There you are now, if only you got that every day.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Will the Boundary Changes come into force, even by 2024? They are already almost NINE YEARS overdue, thanks to Cameron being totally hoodwinked by Clegg during the so-called coalition years and failing to have the necessary determination to introduce them post the 2015 election ... a massive fail by Cameron. Yet here we are a further four and a half years down the road and there is still no mention whatsoever of these being introduced even with the Tories having an 80 seat overall majority ... what a complete and utter shambles!
  • isamisam Posts: 42,956
    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    No, labour will get around 240 seats next time and Lib Dems might improve by a handful, although Tories most seats at 5-6 is best bet of the decade.

    The best bet of the decade, I would wager, will be something at rather better odds than 5-6.
    I just backed 'Completed Match - No' in the India vs Sri Lanka t20 cricket at 1.06 when the cut off time for there to be a match had passed 3 mins before... that's got to be close to the bet of the decade hasnt it? Free money!!
    It's probably not even the best 1-16 of the year let alone decade.
    What??? Something that has already won isn’t the best 1/16 shot you can back?!?!

    How could it possibly be bettered?
    How did you manage to bet something already over?
    Because the people laying it didn’t know it was over I guess
    They were waiting for official confirmation probably, or just not following the info



  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,834
    edited January 2020
    peter_from_putney said:

    Will the Boundary Changes come into force, even by 2024? They are already almost NINE YEARS overdue, thanks to Cameron being totally hoodwinked by Clegg during the so-called coalition years and failing to have the necessary determination to introduce them post the 2015 election ... a massive fail by Cameron. Yet here we are a further four and a half years down the road and there is still no mention whatsoever of these being introduced even with the Tories having an 80 seat overall majority ... what a complete and utter shambles!

    How many days has Parliament been sitting since the election? :p Rumors are that they are going to push ahead but with 650 rather than 600, so that will require another redrawing of the boundaries.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Machine, still not inclined to back that.

    Short odds over a long time scale don't appeal.

    Plus I'm already green on Hamilton based on a couple of bets (to beat Schumacher's win record and to score under a certain number of wins this year).

    What under are you on?

    I'm expecting him to win 12 and at least 16 podiums.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    @Morris_Dancer

    In the 2019 F1 championship, we knew around July that Hamilton was going to win although it wasn't official until October, it was just a matter of turning up really.

    I expect nothing to change and powers will pay out in august as they have a habit of doing that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,089
    Mr. Machine, sorry for the slow reply, was afk.

    It's true most political bets are long term, but at those odds I don't like them.

    I got 9 on Schumacher's record being beaten (at any point) by Hamilton. I got just over evens on Hamilton getting under 9.5 wins this year. There's a small chance both could come off in 2020, and one is certain to do so.

    I agree Hamilton's likely to win around 12 times, but it's entirely possible it'll be a little lower.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Machine, sorry for the slow reply, was afk.

    It's true most political bets are long term, but at those odds I don't like them.

    I got 9 on Schumacher's record being beaten (at any point) by Hamilton. I got just over evens on Hamilton getting under 9.5 wins this year. There's a small chance both could come off in 2020, and one is certain to do so.

    I agree Hamilton's likely to win around 12 times, but it's entirely possible it'll be a little lower.

    The only way Hamilton won't equal and Beat the record is if he died, to be brutally honest.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    @Morris_Dancer

    The 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites are just random numbers, bottas was second yet he's 5th in betting. Crazy.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I had an interesting discussion with a brother last night. I was aware that in 2017 he and his wife had voted Tory for the first time - very anti-Corbyn.He revealed that he did not vote Labour last month - without specifying how he did vote - felt unable to support Corbyn due to security fears. To my surprise, he then informed me that he has now joined the Labour Party! He has done so in order to vote in the Leadership election - and also said he basically still thought of himself as 'Labour'. How would the party respond to this were it to be made aware of his recent voting behaviour?
    Having voted Green myself here in Norwich North at the election, perhaps I would be barred from membership myself were I inclined to apply!
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    @Morris_Dancer although Hamilton isn't the best Still, Senna is the greatest.

    Hamilton's opposition has been pretty poor to say the least.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    RobD said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Will the Boundary Changes come into force, even by 2024? They are already almost NINE YEARS overdue, thanks to Cameron being totally hoodwinked by Clegg during the so-called coalition years and failing to have the necessary determination to introduce them post the 2015 election ... a massive fail by Cameron. Yet here we are a further four and a half years down the road and there is still no mention whatsoever of these being introduced even with the Tories having an 80 seat overall majority ... what a complete and utter shambles!

    How many days has Parliament been sitting since the election? :p Rumors are that they are going to push ahead but with 650 rather than 600, so that will require another redrawing of the boundaries.
    I don't know why they don't just stick with the 600, since all the legislation and preparations are in place and ready to go... Are backbenchers really going to kick up a fuss at this stage?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,834
    edited January 2020
    justin124 said:

    I had an interesting discussion with a brother last night. I was aware that in 2017 he and his wife had voted Tory for the first time - very anti-Corbyn.He revealed that he did not vote Labour last month - without specifying how he did vote - felt unable to support Corbyn due to security fears. To my surprise, he then informed me that he has now joined the Labour Party! He has done so in order to vote in the Leadership election - and also said he basically still thought of himself as 'Labour'. How would the party respond to this were it to be made aware of his recent voting behaviour?
    Having voted Green myself here in Norwich North at the election, perhaps I would be barred from membership myself were I inclined to apply!

    Voting for another party in the past excludes you from applying for Labour membership?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,834
    BluestBlue said:

    RobD said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Will the Boundary Changes come into force, even by 2024? They are already almost NINE YEARS overdue, thanks to Cameron being totally hoodwinked by Clegg during the so-called coalition years and failing to have the necessary determination to introduce them post the 2015 election ... a massive fail by Cameron. Yet here we are a further four and a half years down the road and there is still no mention whatsoever of these being introduced even with the Tories having an 80 seat overall majority ... what a complete and utter shambles!

    How many days has Parliament been sitting since the election? :p Rumors are that they are going to push ahead but with 650 rather than 600, so that will require another redrawing of the boundaries.
    I don't know why they don't just stick with the 600, since all the legislation and preparations are in place and ready to go... Are backbenchers really going to kick up a fuss at this stage?
    Given that there's not going to be an election for five years they have the time.
This discussion has been closed.

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