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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 – The year of blessings in disguise?

A guest slot from Fishing
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I ideally wanted EEA plus CU. But I accept that won't happy in the medium term now. The Tories will not be able to sign anything that has the arbitration mechanism be an EU mechanism (the ECJ) or gives an advantage to the EU that hurts another potential FTA with other countries. But once those conditions are fulfilled, surely you Leavers should prefer a deal that helps services alignment and the sectors the UK has competitive advantage in?
Because the way we are heading we will not get that. It will not be negotiable in 11 months.
Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)
OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?
What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?
What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.
Everything goes as long as you have a majority in Parliament and control of the courts, which what Remainers abused in 2019 to try and take over without public consent.
The worst was averted only because an election was called and the opposition voted for it.
However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.
Perhaps another silver lining is that Boris telling Scotland that there will be no Referendum for five years will give them time to contruct the coherent case for Independence lacking in 2014.
And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.
On a slight tangent, I tried to "like" one of my own posts on the previous thread but the system forbade it. Is this a bug or a feature?
Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?
Westmoreland
And I think that is it
I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.
Westmoreland, and Orkney
Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...
The EU is bouncing between 2 german models, the Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867 that devided the Empire in spheres of influence, and the Prussian model of 1870 of unification by force and total control from Berlin.
My guess is that the future of the EU will be decided in Sweden or in the East, due to increased pressure on EU finances and social pressure from mass immigration.
It could even be another stupid thing in the Balkans.
Which means that the Liberal Democrats have held one seat without interruption since the leadership of Jo Grimond - his own.
https://twitter.com/BottyBolingoli/status/1212081681663967232?s=20
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-fundraising.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.
Full list here including an answer to your question:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs
The attempts to fix this go on.
To be fair, it paid off for the SNP.
Turning to metropolitan areas meant betrayal for the celtic fringe, you can't balance London with rural Wales, rural Cornwall and rural Scotland.
Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.
I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?
Just to gauge the depth of your insight on the subject like.
Now they are nearly 500,000 votes behind the Tories and do not hold a single seat in Wales.
I do not see how they change that. In fact, I begin to suspect that Kirsty Williams will complete the wipeout in eighteen months by losing her own seat.
The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.
It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/
That the choice was Dictatorship or an Election shows how difficult it was.
2019 was the most dangerous year for British Democracy since 1974.
There were nutters on both sides that could easily have pushed things beyond the edge.
Was brutal to the Yellows and Faragistas though - they should both have got three seats each and ended up with nothing.
Labour, of course, got 40% of the vote and 55% of the seats.
The fact remains, we will cease to be members of the CFP, and our territorial waters up to 200 miles (or the median point if another country is closer) will be our area to do with as we please. It would be puzzling if any government decided to keep things exactly as they are, but that would be for them to decide. Nevertheless, EU fishing quotas as far as they deal with British waters will cease to have a legal effect.
No prospective LD really thinks they have a safe seat, nor becomes an LD for careerist purposes. One of the strengths of the party is that the candidates are rarely career politicians.
1992 Tory lead nationally 7.5% Tory lead Broxtowe 17.2%
2010 tory lead nationally 7.1% Tory lead Broxtowe: 0.7%
Same boundaries, little demographic change. Conversely, once I lost, and tried again in 2015, I got stuffed - people had moved on.
On topic, that's a really *nice* leader by Fishing. A pleasant start to the New Year.
The Greek (and other European) crisis did alot of damage.
Being able to name your MP is of course neither a sign of liking them nor of being willing to vote for them.
Referendums are often used to kick the government of the day, that never seems to change.
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/almost-70-of-people-know-the-name-of-their-mp-by-professor-phil-cowley-university-of-nottingham/#.XgztT_zgqUk
although only 22% can remember if they don't have a list to pick from:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22555659
When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.
I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.
That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...
Because the Liberal Democrats didn’t stand in Cannock Chase, I abstained. Does that mean I am not a former Liberal Democrat voter?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15425256
What was the list like? 'John Smith, a Duck. a Chicken. Jennifer Unimaginable-to-not-be-recalled-name'
If there was an EU referendum anytime after 1992, Leave would have won.
Obviously it depends on how Brexit turns out - but there seems to me to be a strong possibility that some? many? won't vote Labour a second time.