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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 – The year of blessings in disguise?

A guest slot from Fishing

Read the full story here

Gadfly

First!

Gabs3

maaarsh said:

Gabs3 said:

squareroot2 said:

rottenborough said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1212044608936534017

6 was.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1211942899514052610

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1211944595526959104

I feel that straight banana stories will be circulated.

The problem we will have in 2020 is that:

- The EU is going to announce forced choices for the UK by tying things that don't necessarily need to be linked (e.g. professional qualification recognition and free movement) in it's own interest
- Remainers are going to embrace the EU forced choices as being "reality" that the Leavers have to face and why we need a super soft Brexit
- Remainers are going to try to maximize embarrassment for Boris by making his unrealistic commitment to leave the transition by end of year as big as possible
- Faced with these political constraints, Boris is going to have to accept the hard choices, but will deal with them by making the hard choices that Remainers don't want: an even harder Brexit and leaving with a bare bones deal, while dressing it up as something great
- The necessary Conservative coalition will swallow this, be angry at Remainers continuing to argue for the EU, and feel Boris is still on their side, with any economic damage blamed on wider global slowdowns

We will end up with nobody getting what they need. Leavers will have a shitty Brexit that makes us poorer. Remainers will face the Tories not taking the damage they expected them to take from a shitty Brexit and with even more distance from the EU and returning to power than ever.

You really want a bare bones deal with the EU stacked in their favour? One with no quotas, no tariffs to help their goods surplus but nothing on non-tariff barriers that and thus wrecks our service advantage?

I ideally wanted EEA plus CU. But I accept that won't happy in the medium term now. The Tories will not be able to sign anything that has the arbitration mechanism be an EU mechanism (the ECJ) or gives an advantage to the EU that hurts another potential FTA with other countries. But once those conditions are fulfilled, surely you Leavers should prefer a deal that helps services alignment and the sectors the UK has competitive advantage in?

Because the way we are heading we will not get that. It will not be negotiable in 11 months.

kle4

Somehow I dont think many will be inclined to see these silver linings. But we can hope on a few.

Jonathan

As Blackadder said, “it’s a bloody good disguise “.

ydoethur

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Fishing

Jonathan said:

As Blackadder said, “it’s a bloody good disguise “.

I think that, or something similar, was a Churchill quote from 1945 originally?

rcs1000

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.

The reason that non-UK fishermen having access to British fishing quotas is because those quotas (like ownership of a plot of land) are tradeable.

Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)

OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?

What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?

What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.

Fishing

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

speedy2

On the point of the Constitution, it doesn't really exist.

Everything goes as long as you have a majority in Parliament and control of the courts, which what Remainers abused in 2019 to try and take over without public consent.

The worst was averted only because an election was called and the opposition voted for it.

Peter_the_Punter

Fishing said:

Jonathan said:

As Blackadder said, “it’s a bloody good disguise “.

I think that, or something similar, was a Churchill quote from 1945 originally?

It was in response to his wife's comment that the loss might be a blessing in disguise. 'In that case it's very well disguised indeed' he is reported to have replied.

Peter_the_Punter

Nice thread piece, Fishing. You could easily be right in every respect.

ydoethur

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

RobD

Thanks for the header, Fishing!

MarqueeMark

A welcome thread so early in the New Year.

Perhaps another silver lining is that Boris telling Scotland that there will be no Referendum for five years will give them time to contruct the coherent case for Independence lacking in 2014.

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1212327648338337795

kinabalu

Great header. I do not agree with most of the comments but they are all, every single one of them, supportable and interesting.

On a slight tangent, I tried to "like" one of my own posts on the previous thread but the system forbade it. Is this a bug or a feature?

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

kinabalu

Gabs3 said:

I ideally wanted EEA plus CU. But I accept that won't happy in the medium term now. The Tories will not be able to sign anything that has the arbitration mechanism be an EU mechanism (the ECJ) or gives an advantage to the EU that hurts another potential FTA with other countries. But once those conditions are fulfilled, surely you Leavers should prefer a deal that helps services alignment and the sectors the UK has competitive advantage in?

You are a true pro, I'll give you that.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

2

Westmoreland, and Orkney

RandallFlagg

MarqueeMark said:

A welcome thread so early in the New Year.

Perhaps another silver lining is that Boris telling Scotland that there will be no Referendum for five years will give them time to contruct the coherent case for Independence lacking in 2014.

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

Not so much dismantle their record, but actually build an alternative government to the SNP, with a different vision for Scotland. That, particularly, seems to be the problem that the current unionist parties face in Scotland: there isn't really a government in waiting.

rottenborough

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

speedy2

On the point of the EU.

The EU is bouncing between 2 german models, the Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867 that devided the Empire in spheres of influence, and the Prussian model of 1870 of unification by force and total control from Berlin.

My guess is that the future of the EU will be decided in Sweden or in the East, due to increased pressure on EU finances and social pressure from mass immigration.
It could even be another stupid thing in the Balkans.

ydoethur

@rcs1000 and @Foxy may each have a good star. It is indeed those two.

Which means that the Liberal Democrats have held one seat without interruption since the leadership of Jo Grimond - his own.

Theuniondivvie

MarqueeMark said:

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

& these are just the political colossi do it.

https://twitter.com/BottyBolingoli/status/1212081681663967232?s=20

Theuniondivvie

RandallFlagg said:

MarqueeMark said:

A welcome thread so early in the New Year.

Perhaps another silver lining is that Boris telling Scotland that there will be no Referendum for five years will give them time to contruct the coherent case for Independence lacking in 2014.

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

Not so much dismantle their record, but actually build an alternative government to the SNP, with a different vision for Scotland. That, particularly, seems to be the problem that the current unionist parties face in Scotland: there isn't really a government in waiting.

There's not even an opposition in waiting.

rottenborough

In Iowa alone, [Buttigieg] said the campaign now has 35 offices and more than 100 organizers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-fundraising.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

MarqueeMark

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

& these are just the political colossi do it.

https://twitter.com/BottyBolingoli/status/1212081681663967232?s=20

It's the SNP's political colossi who still won't be able to make the coherent case for independence. The gaping holes present then look unlikely to be filled within a generation....

Foxy

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

Great header. I do not agree with most of the comments but they are all, every single one of them, supportable and interesting.

On a slight tangent, I tried to "like" one of my own posts on the previous thread but the system forbade it. Is this a bug or a feature?

LOL

EPG

MarqueeMark said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

& these are just the political colossi do it.

https://twitter.com/BottyBolingoli/status/1212081681663967232?s=20

It's the SNP's political colossi who still won't be able to make the coherent case for independence. The gaping holes present then look unlikely to be filled within a generation....

The SNP beats even the Conservatives at the sport of "sh1tposting > policy".

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1212423736659451904

The attempts to fix this go on.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

Southport.

RobD

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1212423736659451904

The attempts to fix this go on.

Incredible scenario for CCHQ they mean?

TOPPING

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

Yeah. You can't be an opposition party and not want an election every minute of every day. Jeremy Corbyn of course realised this and the fact that he held off for so long is probably precisely because he had the data.

Casino_Royale

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

It was Tory hubris in 2017, and Lib Dem and Labour hubris in 2019.

To be fair, it paid off for the SNP.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1212423736659451904

The attempts to fix this go on.

He always was bizarrely unselfaware.

speedy2

ydoethur said:

@rcs1000 and @Foxy may each have a good star. It is indeed those two.

Which means that the Liberal Democrats have held one seat without interruption since the leadership of Jo Grimond - his own.

It has always been politically difficult for Liberals, the base of Liberalism was always the celtic fringe for cultural reasons, but after Ireland left there are not enough celtic areas in the country.

Turning to metropolitan areas meant betrayal for the celtic fringe, you can't balance London with rural Wales, rural Cornwall and rural Scotland.

kinabalu

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nice thread piece, Fishing. You could easily be right in every respect.

The one which IMO is almost certainly right is that JC's every bone and sinew did not yearn to be PM. I have just 30 minutes ago found out that I will NOT be having to attend a very difficult event in the Far East this weekend. It would have been my duty to attend if it were logistically possible but it transpires that it is not. My feelings - wistful and genuine disappointment swamped by relief - are what I very strongly sense that Jeremy's were at 10.05 pm on 12th Dec.

Malmesbury

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

Southport.

The LibDem vote in Southport, just four years after they won the seat, and despite a national vote up 50%, was just 13.5% this year.

Theuniondivvie

MarqueeMark said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

And for unionists it gives them a full five years to dismantle the SNP's record in Govt.

& these are just the political colossi do it.

https://twitter.com/BottyBolingoli/status/1212081681663967232?s=20

It's the SNP's political colossi who still won't be able to make the coherent case for independence. The gaping holes present then look unlikely to be filled within a generation....

Can't remember but were you one of the several PB Scotch experts who were exciting themselves over the prospect of SCon gains during the GE?

Just to gauge the depth of your insight on the subject like.

ydoethur

speedy2 said:

ydoethur said:

@rcs1000 and @Foxy may each have a good star. It is indeed those two.

Which means that the Liberal Democrats have held one seat without interruption since the leadership of Jo Grimond - his own.

It has always been politically difficult for Liberals, the base of Liberalism was always the celtic fringe for cultural reasons, but after Ireland left there are not enough celtic areas in the country.

Turning to metropolitan areas meant betrayal for the celtic fringe, you can't balance London with rural Wales, rural Cornwall and rural Scotland.

The Liberal Democrats have lost 161,000 votes in Wales since 2005. In that election, they were just 25,000 votes behind the Tories and on four seats, the second largest number behind Labour.

Now they are nearly 500,000 votes behind the Tories and do not hold a single seat in Wales.

I do not see how they change that. In fact, I begin to suspect that Kirsty Williams will complete the wipeout in eighteen months by losing her own seat.

Alphabet_Soup

One of 2019's greatest blessings will be the peaceful reunification of Ireland in the foreseeable future. Perhaps this doesn't belong in the thread header because it's barely disguised. The English have made it plain that it's a small price to pay for Brexit.

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

kinabalu

Foxy said:

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

Why not force Johnson to own the choice between No Deal and seeking an extension with no Benn Act alibi?

TOPPING

Alphabet_Soup said:

One of 2019's greatest blessings will be the peaceful reunification of Ireland in the foreseeable future. Perhaps this doesn't belong in the thread header because it's barely disguised. The English have made it plain that it's a small price to pay for Brexit.

Shhh. Don't tell the patriotic Tory Leavers. They don't see the contradiction.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

It didn’t save many in 2015. THat said, it might be the personal vote, as the exception, that saved some of them. Particularly Pugh, Lamb, Brake and Williams.

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.

The reason that non-UK fishermen having access to British fishing quotas is because those quotas (like ownership of a plot of land) are tradeable.

Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)

OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?

What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?

What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.

The quotas will no longer exist. They are part of the (deeply flawed) CFP which the UK will no longer be part of. Owners of them should be compensated appropriately. We then start again.

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

It didn’t save many in 2015. THat said, it might be the personal vote, as the exception, that saved some of them. Particularly Pugh, Lamb, Brake and Williams.

FPTP is brutal to parties that lose two thirds of their vote.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

Nah, the personal vote is pretty much a myth. Few can name their MP. It just demonstrates how fluid voters can be in switching parties, and that tide can change very quickly.

RandallFlagg

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Surely the big worry for the Lib Dems in Westmorland is that it's being held purely due to Tim Farron's personal vote. They thought they had a shot of holding North Norfolk after Lamb retired, for instance, but the Tories have a 14,000 majority there now. If Farron quits next time round, I could well see Westmorland going the same way.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

? Years

Foxy

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.

The reason that non-UK fishermen having access to British fishing quotas is because those quotas (like ownership of a plot of land) are tradeable.

Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)

OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?

What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?

What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.

The quotas will no longer exist. They are part of the (deeply flawed) CFP which the UK will no longer be part of. Owners of them should be compensated appropriately. We then start again.

I don't think that is the policy, Gove agreed that there would be no change in quotas. Incidentally redistribution of quotas is possible within the CFP.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

speedy2

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

They could have formed a government of Remainers and abolish General Elections to avoid losing all their seats from the public backlash, possibly triggering civil unrest.

That the choice was Dictatorship or an Election shows how difficult it was.
2019 was the most dangerous year for British Democracy since 1974.

There were nutters on both sides that could easily have pushed things beyond the edge.

kinabalu

TOPPING said:

LOL

Much appreciated - but how about giving the actual post a "like"? As I say, the system won't let me do it. Not sure why. Please note how my demands of you are withering away to almost nothing. A "Great Post!" now seems to be the stuff of deluded dreams. I bet even if I did a Great Post - i.e. one that mirrored your thoughts exactly but expressed them a bit better than you could - you wouldn't say "Great Post!"

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

It didn’t save many in 2015. THat said, it might be the personal vote, as the exception, that saved some of them. Particularly Pugh, Lamb, Brake and Williams.

FPTP is brutal to parties that lose two thirds of their vote.

Oddly, it worked almost perfectly proportionately in Wales for the Tories: 36% of the vote, 34% of the seats. Plaid similarly had 10% and 10%.

Was brutal to the Yellows and Faragistas though - they should both have got three seats each and ended up with nothing.

Labour, of course, got 40% of the vote and 55% of the seats.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

? Years

If I had said five elections, you were really buggered because it would be one.

Luckyguy1983

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.

The reason that non-UK fishermen having access to British fishing quotas is because those quotas (like ownership of a plot of land) are tradeable.

Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)

OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?

What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?

What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.

The quotas will no longer exist. They are part of the (deeply flawed) CFP which the UK will no longer be part of. Owners of them should be compensated appropriately. We then start again.

I don't think that is the policy, Gove agreed that there would be no change in quotas. Incidentally redistribution of quotas is possible within the CFP.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

I don't think that is what's implied by the article?

The fact remains, we will cease to be members of the CFP, and our territorial waters up to 200 miles (or the median point if another country is closer) will be our area to do with as we please. It would be puzzling if any government decided to keep things exactly as they are, but that would be for them to decide. Nevertheless, EU fishing quotas as far as they deal with British waters will cease to have a legal effect.

ydoethur

RandallFlagg said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Surely the big worry for the Lib Dems in Westmorland is that it's being held purely due to Tim Farron's personal vote. They thought they had a shot of holding North Norfolk after Lamb retired, for instance, but the Tories have a 14,000 majority there now. If Farron quits next time round, I could well see Westmorland going the same way.

Quite possibly. Isn’t it their only seat in England north of the Thames Valley? The others I think are Bath, St Albans, Twickenham, Surbiton, Richmond, Oxford West and Abingdon.

glw

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

We should always be skeptical of such claims of "a secret poll that predicted the result", because you don't hear about the other private polls that failed, and there were likely to have been quite a few of those too. I'm sure that Labour and the Lib Dems had people presenting data to them that told them to go for it.

ydoethur

glw said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

We should always be skeptical of such claims of "a secret poll that predicted the result", because you don't hear about the other private polls that failed, and there were likely to have been quite a few of those too. I'm sure that Labour and the Lib Dems had people presenting data to them that told them to go for it.

They went for a public Czech, against the advice of their secret Pole.

Foxy

RandallFlagg said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Surely the big worry for the Lib Dems in Westmorland is that it's being held purely due to Tim Farron's personal vote. They thought they had a shot of holding North Norfolk after Lamb retired, for instance, but the Tories have a 14,000 majority there now. If Farron quits next time round, I could well see Westmorland going the same way.

Though of course, such fluidity of the vote works in the other direction too. There are some juicy second places for the LDs, that may well become LD seats in the future.

No prospective LD really thinks they have a safe seat, nor becomes an LD for careerist purposes. One of the strengths of the party is that the candidates are rarely career politicians.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

Interesting to ask that question of the seats before Clegg marched them into Coalition.

Of the eight seats the Liberal Democrats held in 2015, I think four had been won in 2005 or later. Ceredigion, West and Lon, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West were the ones I am thinking of. Carshalton and North Norfolk were 1997, Orkney was 1950 and Southport was 1992.

Full list here including an answer to your question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

It didn’t save many in 2015. THat said, it might be the personal vote, as the exception, that saved some of them. Particularly Pugh, Lamb, Brake and Williams.

FPTP is brutal to parties that lose two thirds of their vote.

Oddly, it worked almost perfectly proportionately in Wales for the Tories: 36% of the vote, 34% of the seats. Plaid similarly had 10% and 10%.

Was brutal to the Yellows and Faragistas though - they should both have got three seats each and ended up with nothing.

Labour, of course, got 40% of the vote and 55% of the seats.

For the final time.....

Malmesbury

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Foxy

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.

The reason that non-UK fishermen having access to British fishing quotas is because those quotas (like ownership of a plot of land) are tradeable.

Are we going to say that only British fishermen can own these quotas? (This would be like saying that only British people can own arable land.)

OK... what if Spanish Fishing Company creates a subsidiary in the UK, and that buys a quota. Is that acceptable? If not, why not?

What if a British fisherman with a quota chooses to lease a boat from a Spanish company? What if the Spanish boat that is leased comes with its own crew?

What are we going to do about the fact that not only EU firms own quotas today? There a number of Canadian holders of fishing quotas (bought from British fishermen in the free market). CETA covers EU-Canada transferrable ownership of fishing quotas. If we want to rewrite it so that Canadians now cannot own British fishing quotas, I think we'll struggle to get the deal signed.

The quotas will no longer exist. They are part of the (deeply flawed) CFP which the UK will no longer be part of. Owners of them should be compensated appropriately. We then start again.

I don't think that is the policy, Gove agreed that there would be no change in quotas. Incidentally redistribution of quotas is possible within the CFP.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

I don't think that is what's implied by the article?

The fact remains, we will cease to be members of the CFP, and our territorial waters up to 200 miles (or the median point if another country is closer) will be our area to do with as we please. It would be puzzling if any government decided to keep things exactly as they are, but that would be for them to decide. Nevertheless, EU fishing quotas as far as they deal with British waters will cease to have a legal effect.

Well, whether those quotas cease to have legal effect is an issue that is up for discussion at the FTA talks. If that quota has been bought fair and square by a foreign company then it becomes a legal matter.

NickPalmer

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

Nah, the personal vote is pretty much a myth. Few can name their MP. It just demonstrates how fluid voters can be in switching parties, and that tide can change very quickly.

No, there's some proper research on this. IIRC around 50% can name their MP, and 1st time reelection candidates get consistently 5-10% more than the swing. And you can work on it if you knock yourself out enough between one election after another:

1992 Tory lead nationally 7.5% Tory lead Broxtowe 17.2%
2010 tory lead nationally 7.1% Tory lead Broxtowe: 0.7%

Same boundaries, little demographic change. Conversely, once I lost, and tried again in 2015, I got stuffed - people had moved on.

On topic, that's a really *nice* leader by Fishing. A pleasant start to the New Year.

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Or got us into this mess 5 years sooner!

ydoethur

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

The fact remains, we will cease to be members of the CFP, and our territorial waters up to 200 miles (or the median point if another country is closer) will be our area to do with as we please. It would be puzzling if any government decided to keep things exactly as they are, but that would be for them to decide. Nevertheless, EU fishing quotas as far as they deal with British waters will cease to have a legal effect.

Well, whether those quotas cease to have legal effect is an issue that is up for discussion at the FTA talks. If that quota has been bought fair and square by a foreign company then it becomes a legal matter.

Do we still have the situation where EU fishing boats caught breaking the rules can only be processed by their own countries? Or has that been dropped? It was a daft system anyway. It meant, in practice, that the Spanish were just ignoring the quotas and everything else.

Malmesbury

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Or got us into this mess 5 years sooner!

The polls were quite clear - it would have been a 60-65 vs 40-35 result.

The Greek (and other European) crisis did alot of damage.

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

What's amazing is how few seats survive the departure of their LibDem MP. Once they go, the LibDem vote tends to collapse. It's powerful evidence for the existence of a personal vote.

Nah, the personal vote is pretty much a myth. Few can name their MP. It just demonstrates how fluid voters can be in switching parties, and that tide can change very quickly.

No, there's some proper research on this. IIRC around 50% can name their MP, and 1st time reelection candidates get consistently 5-10% more than the swing. And you can work on it if you knock yourself out enough between one election after another:

1992 Tory lead nationally 7.5% Tory lead Broxtowe 17.2%
2010 tory lead nationally 7.1% Tory lead Broxtowe: 0.7%

Same boundaries, little demographic change. Conversely, once I lost, and tried again in 2015, I got stuffed - people had moved on.

On topic, that's a really *nice* leader by Fishing. A pleasant start to the New Year.

A personal vote can be a few thousand, but as your own experience shows is a minor effect when national swings take place.

Being able to name your MP is of course neither a sign of liking them nor of being willing to vote for them.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

LOL

Much appreciated - but how about giving the actual post a "like"? As I say, the system won't let me do it. Not sure why. Please note how my demands of you are withering away to almost nothing. A "Great Post!" now seems to be the stuff of deluded dreams. I bet even if I did a Great Post - i.e. one that mirrored your thoughts exactly but expressed them a bit better than you could - you wouldn't say "Great Post!"

At not with.

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Or got us into this mess 5 years sooner!

The polls were quite clear - it would have been a 60-65 vs 40-35 result.

The Greek (and other European) crisis did alot of damage.

So the polls were not much different to 2016 when the actual referendum occurred?

Referendums are often used to kick the government of the day, that never seems to change.

NickPalmer

Actually it's 68% who can name their MP (from a list):

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/almost-70-of-people-know-the-name-of-their-mp-by-professor-phil-cowley-university-of-nottingham/#.XgztT_zgqUk

although only 22% can remember if they don't have a list to pick from:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22555659

matt

I’m glad Fishing has correctly noted that the constitution is uncodified, not unwritten. It’s the sort of small accuracy which makes me look with real interest at everything else. Whether I agree or not.

matt

kinabalu said:

Great header. I do not agree with most of the comments but they are all, every single one of them, supportable and interesting.

On a slight tangent, I tried to "like" one of my own posts on the previous thread but the system forbade it. Is this a bug or a feature?

Feature I hope. Think of it as metaphorically stopping you sitting on your hand and then pretending that you have a girlfriend.

Malmesbury

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Or got us into this mess 5 years sooner!

The polls were quite clear - it would have been a 60-65 vs 40-35 result.

The Greek (and other European) crisis did alot of damage.

So the polls were not much different to 2016 when the actual referendum occurred?

Referendums are often used to kick the government of the day, that never seems to change.

Nope - the difference was a solid 10%. The difference between a guaranteed win and a close race.

MarqueeMark

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Nick Clegg is as much the father of Brexit as Boris.

matt

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

kinabalu

TOPPING said:

At not with.

Well you say that. And if you really mean it, great. But let's see.

kinabalu

matt said:

Feature I hope. Think of it as metaphorically stopping you sitting on your hand and then pretending that you have a girlfriend.

Yes, that is what I figured. Needlessly prohibitive in other words. Some might even go further. But not me. Sitting on my hand is sufficient.

ydoethur

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

ydoethur

matt said:

kinabalu said:

Great header. I do not agree with most of the comments but they are all, every single one of them, supportable and interesting.

On a slight tangent, I tried to "like" one of my own posts on the previous thread but the system forbade it. Is this a bug or a feature?

Feature I hope. Think of it as metaphorically stopping you sitting on your hand and then pretending that you have a girlfriend.

Yes, it is a feature. But if you hover a mouse/tap a touchscreen it shows you who has liked it.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

LDs picked up 1.3 million votes in the GE, so obviously losses in some places were more than matched elsewhere.

RandallFlagg

ydoethur said:

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

Um, I believe there was polling which suggested that only around 5% of Brexit Party voters would have voted for Labour had the Brexit Party not stood in their constituency. So, I actually don't know about that.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

LDs picked up 1.3 million votes in the GE, so obviously losses in some places were more than matched elsewhere.

Yes. But they’re not much use if they’re piled up in safe Labour seats.

ydoethur

RandallFlagg said:

ydoethur said:

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

Um, I believe there was polling which suggested that only around 5% of Brexit Party voters would have voted for Labour had the Brexit Party not stood in their constituency. So, I actually don't know about that.

The question is, not, ‘who would they have voted for?’ but, ‘who did they vote for previously?’

Because the Liberal Democrats didn’t stand in Cannock Chase, I abstained. Does that mean I am not a former Liberal Democrat voter?

Alphabet_Soup

MarqueeMark said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Nick Clegg is as much the father of Brexit as Boris.

A reminder of how fiercely a referendum was resisted by all parties in 2011:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15425256

Omnium

NickPalmer said:

Actually it's 68% who can name their MP (from a list):

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/almost-70-of-people-know-the-name-of-their-mp-by-professor-phil-cowley-university-of-nottingham/#.XgztT_zgqUk

although only 22% can remember if they don't have a list to pick from:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22555659

I don't believe this for a moment.

What was the list like? 'John Smith, a Duck. a Chicken. Jennifer Unimaginable-to-not-be-recalled-name'

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

LDs picked up 1.3 million votes in the GE, so obviously losses in some places were more than matched elsewhere.

Yes. But they’re not much use if they’re piled up in safe Labour seats.

There are bound to have been quite a few from people like me who voted LD in a safe Tory seat...

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

What is lowest no of seats Labour has had in the last 150 yrs?

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

What is lowest no of seats Labour has had in the last 150 yrs?

They were founded in 1892 and won two seats in 1900. Their lowest since universal suffrage came in was 50 in 1931, then 154 in 1935.

speedy2

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ianhowes1970/status/1211969425873809409

I do hope historians note how Swinson enabled a ten year period of Tory and Johnson rule.

Not the case, a GE had become inevitable. There was no viable alternative. The only issue is of timing, and denying a GE would have made No Deal on Jan 31st a real risk.

The only card to play was to try a GE, even if the odds were against success. The problem was that the LD manifesto was written to oppose No Deal, rather than Johnson's surrender Deal. Lab were merely drunk on their own delusions that Marxism would be popular.

It's quite remarkable, to me, what the Lib Dems have achieved on Europe. If they had allowed a referendum in first term of the Coalition government, as Cameron wanted, the result would have been an easy win. Instead we got Brexit.

Working with Tory remainers, they managed to give Johnson the narrative that he was a fresh broom - a unique position after a decade in government. And got the remainers wiped out.

I'm not sure quite what they'll achieve next - a rematch of the Agincourt campaign?

You forget that the underlying numbers are unchanged, even while the Parliamentary numbers have. Pro Brexit parties did not get a majority of the popular vote.

The Lib Dems will be back, there is always a place for a party of sane economics and internationalist co-operation, though currently out of fashion.

It's the Tories trying to ride two horses now, of anti-austerity in the North, and low taxes in the South.

The point stands - the Lib Dems have been remarkably destructive towards their professed aim. I was telling Lib Dems in 2010-2015 that they should have gone for a referendum - it would have shot Farage et als fox and kept it dead for decades.

Or got us into this mess 5 years sooner!

The polls were quite clear - it would have been a 60-65 vs 40-35 result.

The Greek (and other European) crisis did alot of damage.

So the polls were not much different to 2016 when the actual referendum occurred?

Referendums are often used to kick the government of the day, that never seems to change.

Correct, referendums are often used to kick the government of the day.

If there was an EU referendum anytime after 1992, Leave would have won.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

I’ve also just found out - and I didn’t realise this until I started investigating a bit just now - that Ernest Brown, the leader of the Liberal Nationals, also lost his seat in 1945. So both factions of the Liberals were left leaderless.

However, it is of course somewhat open to question how far the Liberal Nationals under Brown were a party separate from the Conservatives.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

A question I haven't seen asked is what will happen with Tory Remainers who lent their votes in tactical voting, come the next election.

Obviously it depends on how Brexit turns out - but there seems to me to be a strong possibility that some? many? won't vote Labour a second time.

Sunil_Prasannan

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

The last leader of a nationwide party to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair (Lib) in 1945. Previously there were the examples @Fishing cites, then Henderson (Lab, 1931) Asquith (1924 and 1918) and Balfour (1906).

Thanks for the correction.

Liberals seem very good at this losing a leader lark!

Because they have very few seats and even fewer of them can be considered safe.

Trivia question - how many seats have the Liberal Democrats held consecutively for more than five years?

Orkney and Shetland
Westmoreland

And I think that is it

That means they have lost SIX of their eight 2015 holds.

Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Ceredigion, Carshalton and err...

I look at somewhere I know a bit, Hereford. The seat’s has a restructure but in 1997 the LDs has 47% of the vote. The lost it in 2010 with 41%. In 2019 they received 12%. Is there any way back?

The Liberal Democrats in rural England in the 1990s were to Labour what the Brexit Party are to the Tories. They were a repository for those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory but would never dream of voting Labour, just as the Brexit Party contains a huge chunk of Labour voters who will not vote Blue.

When the Tories took them into coalition, it detoxed the Tories and that effect unwound very spectacularly. So spectacularly it even gobbled up their vote in places the Tories had not been historically strong, including Wales.

I don’t know if there is a way back. They are not going to get far trying to chase Tory votes right now, but they don’t seem to be picking up disaffected Labour voters either probably due to the Coalition.

That said, if Labour elect Lavery or Long Bailey...

LDs picked up 1.3 million votes in the GE, so obviously losses in some places were more than matched elsewhere.

Yes. But they’re not much use if they’re piled up in safe Labour seats.

There are bound to have been quite a few from people like me who voted LD in a safe Tory seat...

I voted Tory in a safe Labour seat...