I'm sorry, but you're living in Nephelococcygia, as Boris might say!
Q: In which direction did the Overton Window shift when Michael Foot's far-left lunacy went down to a less severe defeat than Corbyn's in 1983?
A: It shifted rightwards for a third of a century...
But it was on the Left pre-Foot and Thatcher shifted it Right. This left Foot staring at a brick wall where the Window used to be. Compounded by Foot himself going Left and thus being even further from the apperture.
What Blair then did was move all the way to where Thatcher had left the window and he climbed through it.
Window has now gone Left a bit (via Corbyn) but Corbyn himself was less equipped to enter than "Boris".
Next time will be fascinating.
Labour currently sits all the way to the left on both the economy and culture, in a country whose mood is currently slightly left-of-centre on the former and centre-right on the latter.
The Tories are going to cement their ownership of the cultural OW, and shift left somewhat on investment, minimum wage, etc to align themselves with the economic OW.
With its rather deluded membership and activist base, Labour will find it very hard to shift right in either the cultural or the economic sphere, and may even double down on both.
In that case, the Tories are are set very fair for victory in 2024, and only a big shock to the economy can stop them (which may happen!).
I'm sorry, but you're living in Nephelococcygia, as Boris might say!
Q: In which direction did the Overton Window shift when Michael Foot's far-left lunacy went down to a less severe defeat than Corbyn's in 1983?
A: It shifted rightwards for a third of a century...
But it was on the Left pre-Foot and Thatcher shifted it Right. This left Foot staring at a brick wall where the Window used to be. Compounded by Foot himself going Left and thus being even further from the apperture.
What Blair then did was move all the way to where Thatcher had left the window and he climbed through it.
Window has now gone Left a bit (via Corbyn) but Corbyn himself was less equipped to enter than "Boris".
Next time will be fascinating.
Labour currently sits all the way to the left on both the economy and culture, in a country whose mood is currently slightly left-of-centre on the former and centre-right on the latter.
The Tories are going to cement their ownership of the cultural OW, and shift left somewhat on investment, minimum wage, etc to align themselves with the economic OW.
With its rather deluded membership and activist base, Labour will find it very hard to shift right in either the cultural or the economic sphere, and may even double down on both.
In that case, the Tories are are set very fair for victory in 2024, and only a big shock to the economy can stop them (which may happen!).
Isn't culture just Brexit and Corbyn? When Brexit and Corbyn are gone, what's left on the right?
I'm sorry, but you're living in Nephelococcygia, as Boris might say!
Q: In which direction did the Overton Window shift when Michael Foot's far-left lunacy went down to a less severe defeat than Corbyn's in 1983?
A: It shifted rightwards for a third of a century...
But it was on the Left pre-Foot and Thatcher shifted it Right. This left Foot staring at a brick wall where the Window used to be. Compounded by Foot himself going Left and thus being even further from the apperture.
What Blair then did was move all the way to where Thatcher had left the window and he climbed through it.
Window has now gone Left a bit (via Corbyn) but Corbyn himself was less equipped to enter than "Boris".
Next time will be fascinating.
Labour currently sits all the way to the left on both the economy and culture, in a country whose mood is currently slightly left-of-centre on the former and centre-right on the latter.
The Tories are going to cement their ownership of the cultural OW, and shift left somewhat on investment, minimum wage, etc to align themselves with the economic OW.
With its rather deluded membership and activist base, Labour will find it very hard to shift right in either the cultural or the economic sphere, and may even double down on both.
In that case, the Tories are are set very fair for victory in 2024, and only a big shock to the economy can stop them (which may happen!).
Isn't culture just Brexit and Corbyn? When Brexit and Corbyn are gone, what's left on the right?
Crime, immigration and random trivial stuff like transgender people in school sports.
It is not so much we are a one party state, just the Tories are in the strongest position of any government and the opposition in its weakest state since Blair's re election landslide in 2001
I feel that straight banana stories will be circulated.
The problem we will have in 2020 is that:
- The EU is going to announce forced choices for the UK by tying things that don't necessarily need to be linked (e.g. professional qualification recognition and free movement) in it's own interest - Remainers are going to embrace the EU forced choices as being "reality" that the Leavers have to face and why we need a super soft Brexit - Remainers are going to try to maximize embarrassment for Boris by making his unrealistic commitment to leave the transition by end of year as big as possible - Faced with these political constraints, Boris is going to have to accept the hard choices, but will deal with them by making the hard choices that Remainers don't want: an even harder Brexit and leaving with a bare bones deal, while dressing it up as something great - The necessary Conservative coalition will swallow this, be angry at Remainers continuing to argue for the EU, and feel Boris is still on their side, with any economic damage blamed on wider global slowdowns
We will end up with nobody getting what they need. Leavers will have a shitty Brexit that makes us poorer. Remainers will face the Tories not taking the damage they expected them to take from a shitty Brexit and with even more distance from the EU and returning to power than ever.
You really want a bare bones deal with the EU stacked in their favour? One with no quotas, no tariffs to help their goods surplus but nothing on non-tariff barriers that and thus wrecks our service advantage?
I ideally wanted EEA plus CU. But I accept that won't happy in the medium term now. The Tories will not be able to sign anything that has the arbitration mechanism be an EU mechanism (the ECJ) or gives an advantage to the EU that hurts another potential FTA with other countries. But once those conditions are fulfilled, surely you Leavers should prefer a deal that helps services alignment and the sectors the UK has competitive advantage in?
Because the way we are heading we will not get that. It will not be negotiable in 11 months.
Yesterday I posted that I would like to see a better account of the relationship of Britain and the EU in respect of the fishing industry. Later that day I read what appeared to be one in the Guardian; the editorial: 'The Guardian view on Brexit’s fishy tale: we will need friends at sea' and wondered. If the position IS as discussed there it's going to be quite a circle to square to keep all our fishermen happy and meet our international obligations.
The fishermen will get totally shafted. Just as they did in the 70s.
It would be highly impolitic to shaft the fishermen, so it won't happen.
Except that it’s a tiny industry, employing fewer people than Harrods, our position in the negotiations generally is going to be weak with a longer wishlist than has the EU including some services issues that are critical to the economy, and with the market for our domestic catch being mostly the EU. Access to our waters is likely to be an EU red line and it is hard to see any outcome that our fisherfolk will like.
It's a tiny industry because of the EU. I am sure the EU will negotiate strongly on it, as they will on everything. The UK needs to do the same.
It’s a tiny industry because, were it a big industry, there wouldn’t be any fish.
It's a tiny industry because our waters are being fished by overseas fishing fleets. Many of which are selling these fish back to the UK to be processed at our own facilities. I have nothing against Spanish and Portuguese fishermen (people?) and their efforts to grow and prosper, but this situation is an anachronism and can and will be fixed.
If the Spanish and Portuguese bought those fishing rights legally it's not an anachronism. It's a business deal that we would be breaking.
I'm not suggesting it is illegal, but we all know that the rights were acquired on highly advantageous terms as a sweetener to 'let us join'. And I'm not suggesting the foreign fishing fleets who currently benefit should not be compensated - they should be compensated in line with what the departing British fishermen received when we joined.
This article is like a copy of one from the Economist from 1992, right down to the mention of Japan.
In the 1980's the Conservative vote share was 42-43% in 4 straight elections, Labour's vote share was determined by the unity of the left, that continued until Major declared war on Conservative voters over Europe.
In the 2010's both the Conservatives and Labour started from a low point going upwards as they tried to coalesce their side until in 2019 Labour decided to declare war on it's working class over Europe.
What disrupted the process was in both cases Leaderships fighting their own voters on the major social issue of the day.
But not in the context of our chinwag because I specifically offered up the Broadband policy as an example of a piece of nonsense which had the sole benefit of making other stuff look less outlandish.
But not in the context of our chinwag because I specifically offered up the Broadband policy as an example of a piece of nonsense which had the sole benefit of making other stuff look less outlandish.
But it didn’t. Guilt by association made them look more outlandish. I can’t help it if you don’t like that fact, a fact it remains.
But it didn’t. Guilt by association made them look more outlandish. I can’t help it if you don’t like that fact, a fact it remains.
I suppose you think you will be getting the last word on this. Well we'll see about that.
Why not join us on the new thread, Kinabalu? I’ve already had the last word as you appear unable to refute my posts. Shame you’ve stopped offering me alcohol though.
Comments
The Tories are going to cement their ownership of the cultural OW, and shift left somewhat on investment, minimum wage, etc to align themselves with the economic OW.
With its rather deluded membership and activist base, Labour will find it very hard to shift right in either the cultural or the economic sphere, and may even double down on both.
In that case, the Tories are are set very fair for victory in 2024, and only a big shock to the economy can stop them (which may happen!).
I ideally wanted EEA plus CU. But I accept that won't happy in the medium term now. The Tories will not be able to sign anything that has the arbitration mechanism be an EU mechanism (the ECJ) or gives an advantage to the EU that hurts another potential FTA with other countries. But once those conditions are fulfilled, surely you Leavers should prefer a deal that helps services alignment and the sectors the UK has competitive advantage in?
Because the way we are heading we will not get that. It will not be negotiable in 11 months.
In the 1980's the Conservative vote share was 42-43% in 4 straight elections, Labour's vote share was determined by the unity of the left, that continued until Major declared war on Conservative voters over Europe.
In the 2010's both the Conservatives and Labour started from a low point going upwards as they tried to coalesce their side until in 2019 Labour decided to declare war on it's working class over Europe.
What disrupted the process was in both cases Leaderships fighting their own voters on the major social issue of the day.
Nationalised without compensation