The fuel to ignite the bitterness of the imminent Labour war is fact you cannot have remainers in the Labour Party now. How can you if the word has no meaning anymore, remainery has ceased to be, if the party ever wins again they will inherit a nation (or whats left of it) outside the EU.
The next five years may see the Conservatives put in place FTAs with the US and the EU, avoid a serious recession, and deal with many of the structural issues with the UK economy. In which case, it won't matter who the Labour leader is.
Or it could be the case that we manage to crash out the EU transition without a deal at the end of 2020, and a US FTA could be rather harder to find agreement on than expected (by Prime Minister Johnson). We could see manufacturing job losses, and a housing downturn, and the UK suffering badly in a recession. In which case, then so long as Labour don't choose a complete Muppet, then they'll win.
Remember, though, the following.
Firstly, people blame others (i.e. the government) for their difficulties, but attribute all successes to their own efforts. This means that the winners from Brexit will see their newfound success as a result of their brilliance, while the losers will blame the Government and Brexit. Remember also that any company looking to close a factory in the UK in the next three years will blame Brexit, irrespective of any underlying causes.
Secondly, the UK economy is much much weaker now than in 2007. Government debt-to-GDP is 90% not 40%. The country is no longer a net creditor to the world, but a substantial debtor. We continue to have very low levels of household savings, and a high current account deficit. And the longer we put off tackling these issues, the worse it will be when they come home to roost,
Thirdly, the UK economy - like Japan and Italy and most of the rest of the developed world - is affected by the mother of all drags on economic growth: a worsening dependency ratio. This means that government healthcare and pension costs will continue to rise, with a diminishing number of people of working age to pay the bills.
Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed
I also love your breezy confidence: "with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed"
Tell me, how many free trade deals has the US entered into in the last decade or even twenty years?
There's been the "renegotiation" of NAFTA (to make it a slightly less free trade agreement). And that's about it.
Would you like to speculate on why the US has entered into so few free trade agreements?
A lot of pro-EU youngsters think in terms of personal freedom. The freedom to marry who they want (irrespective of sex), to smoke what they want, to identify as whatever gender they want, and to work with (and hang out with people from) whichever countries they want. They see they EU as one of the drivers of personal freedom.
But while they love personal freedom, they want to restrict corporate freedom. They companies are overmighty, and see nation states as too spineless and in hock to deal with them and their tax evasion. They see the EU as a counterweight.
Now, what the young fail to realise is that governance works best when there are proper democratic structures, and when things evolve slowly over long periods of time, and that to have an EU state, you need the majority of people to feel EU-citizens over British citizens.
de Valera,Tampon Taxation,Collins,Lloyd Georgie,Poll Tax.
I think he is trying to compare the Irish Civil War with today, arguing that Labour should split like Sinn Fein and continue the war like the IRA.
The reason the center left has declined in the west.
Whether or not we agree a trade deal with the US will in any case make little difference to the election result, if we do great, if not we will just be where we are now. A deal with the EU that ends free movement and enables reclamation of sovereignty etc is more important.
Of course it is possible for Labour to get back after 13 years out of power, as 2023 would be but that would require them to get a more centrist electable leader as the Tories did with Cameron to return them to power after 13 years in opposition in 2010 (at a push Starmer or Jess Phillips would fit the bill). Otherwise as is likely Labour will stick to the left under a Long Bailey or Rayner and the left will take 2 decades to return to power, as was the case when they finally picked Blair to return them to power after 18 years in opposition in 1997.
The more I see the polls that all potential Labour Leaders are very unpopular the more I think that Labour needs a caretaker Leader that respects all factions, until Labour finds what it wants.
I have come to the opinion that the PLP Chairman John Cryer might be the best caretaker choice, he seems to go along with most MP's and won't be a threat for any future candidate.
But at least then I could work out the main message. Here I’m at something of a loss.
Look at real wage growth since the GFC and tell me there was a boom.
Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
The Tories have a chance to achieve a period of power and dominance of the political scene unprecedented in 2 centuries due to their economic success, delivery of Brexit and the sheer uselessness of the opposition.
That is how significant the triumphant result and victory Boris achieved could be
I don't support either of them, but I highly respect one of them. Can anyone respect more than one of these movements?
You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
It won't take long for that victory to fade, and unless Brexit converts people whose opinion has been fixed for 42 months, retribution is on the way.
It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going...
Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
I'm currently watching Die Hard season two of Lost In Space.
I have been laid low with a very nasty leg infection necessitating bed rest and antibiotics and possible hospitalisation if that does not work. An absolute bummer as I had, amongst other things, planned to do lots of lovely walks in the woods here in Whicham.
Man - or in this case, woman - proposes. God disposes.
Still, 4 days without food and a high fever is one way of getting those pounds off. Every cloud, eh .....?
V impressive local Community Hospital and GP practice here. But the word is that Barrow General Hospital is under acute pressure.
In one of those circle of life things, when I started my pupillage training at the Bar, one of the very first cases my pupil master worked on was a building dispute about the construction of the then new Barrow General Hospital. God knows how any building was done at all as the architects and builders and engineers seemed to spend most of their days writing long letters to each other complaining about how awful everyone else’s work was. One of the barristers on the team was Emily Blunt’s father. We spent the days in a large Portakabin arguing about everything endlessly, with me as the new girl Friday, taking notes, generally being helpful etc and, incidentally, having to grin and bear the appalling sexism and misogyny from the builders who simply could not cope with the existence of a woman about 30 years younger.
When they were together they simply could not resist behaving like 14 year old boys. Individually they were perfectly nice and talked quite lovingly about their families and, often, interestingly about their work. But their brains simply could not compute that behaviour which they would hate if directed at women in their family was also wrong if directed at some other non-family member.
And in the evening we always had lovely big meals in a hotel. As a treat I was told that I could get to choose the wines and, as the builders were paying, I did not stint in my choices - either in quality or quantity. An unusual way to get some sort of wine education but you takes your chances in life.
It would be an irony if I ended up in that wretched hospital all these years later. If I do I will be praying quite fervently for the medical expertise to be better than the building skills.
And on your last point in case you had forgotten, the Unionists joined the Liberals in government in 1915.
I expect by late spring support for the EU will be at very low levels
Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
EFTA as a first step seems politically more likely than straight rejoin though. Wouldn't be at all surprising if that's Labour policy sometime in the near future.
The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.
Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
But diverting as it is to watch your tangling yourself up in your own contradictions, it seems a total waste of time.
And best wishes to evryone for a peaceful Christmas and a profitable new year.
Really. We are all sinners and mortals here.
My mother died on 2 January. I spoke to her last on NY’s eve and saw her last at Xmas. My father also died in early January so this time of year always has an element of sorrow about it.
You never get over the death of someone you love. But you do - eventually, somehow - get past it.
YOU DESERVE IT, for being so cheerful
So many of us have passed that way ourselves over the years and it is a very difficult and emotional time for all the family.
Love and best wishes from Big G and Mrs Big G
Just saw Knives Out, which was ridiculous fun.
Jamie Lee Curtis wore spectacles which made her look eerily reminiscent of her father in Some Like It Hot at times.
If it goes badly they will blame the government, of course, but for the symptoms (eg economic) rather than what you perceive as the cause.
I don’t think the argument “to solve our economic problems we should rejoin the EU” will win the votes you think it will
Many of us on PB are of an age when there is always an enemy waiting to march.
Best wishes, particularly to those who have suffered a loss or poor health recently.
Brexit, Boris and other battles can wait for a few days - I'm lucky to be healthy, happy and with family.
So sorry to hear of your respective troubles. Best wishes to you and those you love
I tell you what though, puts Boris and Brexit into perspective. I’ve not drunk the Kool Aid for either, but that’s fine.
Aaaaand, it's not. We on PB are all experiencing the sadness and pain (and joys and desires) of ordinary human life. That is wonderful, in its way. We are alive, and we die. We meet with fun and grief on the way.
So many millions of humans have had it much much worse, including our great great grandfathers in the trenches. Indeed I think this is why we revere the Great War. It is the measure of extreme human suffering, if you are British.
Ils ne passeront pas!
There’s likely a fair percentage of the population excited about Brexit.
Best wishes to you and your family.
Yesterday we found out that one of my son's left Kidney is failing / failed (more tests in new year)
As you say a pretty shitty week but it does remind us about what is truly important in life.
As an old colleague used to say "enjoy life, this aint no dress rehearsal"