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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s uncivil (Brexit) war     

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s uncivil (Brexit) war     

The fuel to ignite the bitterness of the imminent Labour war is fact you cannot have remainers in the Labour Party now.   How can you if the word has no meaning anymore, remainery has ceased to be, if the party ever wins again they will inherit a nation (or whats left of it) outside the EU.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324
    FPT...
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cooper or more realistically Starmer might lead Labour to the sort of "respectable" defeat Ed Miliband managed in 2024

    Indeed, Labour have to find their Neil Kinnock or Michael Howard before they can get to their Tony Blair or David Cameron
    Do they?

    The next five years may see the Conservatives put in place FTAs with the US and the EU, avoid a serious recession, and deal with many of the structural issues with the UK economy. In which case, it won't matter who the Labour leader is.

    Or it could be the case that we manage to crash out the EU transition without a deal at the end of 2020, and a US FTA could be rather harder to find agreement on than expected (by Prime Minister Johnson). We could see manufacturing job losses, and a housing downturn, and the UK suffering badly in a recession. In which case, then so long as Labour don't choose a complete Muppet, then they'll win.

    Remember, though, the following.

    Firstly, people blame others (i.e. the government) for their difficulties, but attribute all successes to their own efforts. This means that the winners from Brexit will see their newfound success as a result of their brilliance, while the losers will blame the Government and Brexit. Remember also that any company looking to close a factory in the UK in the next three years will blame Brexit, irrespective of any underlying causes.

    Secondly, the UK economy is much much weaker now than in 2007. Government debt-to-GDP is 90% not 40%. The country is no longer a net creditor to the world, but a substantial debtor. We continue to have very low levels of household savings, and a high current account deficit. And the longer we put off tackling these issues, the worse it will be when they come home to roost,

    Thirdly, the UK economy - like Japan and Italy and most of the rest of the developed world - is affected by the mother of all drags on economic growth: a worsening dependency ratio. This means that government healthcare and pension costs will continue to rise, with a diminishing number of people of working age to pay the bills.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    I can't even get a first when PB is quiet. Sad times. :(
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT...

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cooper or more realistically Starmer might lead Labour to the sort of "respectable" defeat Ed Miliband managed in 2024

    Indeed, Labour have to find their Neil Kinnock or Michael Howard before they can get to their Tony Blair or David Cameron
    Do they?

    The next five years may see the Conservatives put in place FTAs with the US and the EU, avoid a serious recession, and deal with many of the structural issues with the UK economy. In which case, it won't matter who the Labour leader is.

    Or it could be the case that we manage to crash out the EU transition without a deal at the end of 2020, and a US FTA could be rather harder to find agreement on than expected (by Prime Minister Johnson). We could see manufacturing job losses, and a housing downturn, and the UK suffering badly in a recession. In which case, then so long as Labour don't choose a complete Muppet, then they'll win.

    Remember, though, the following.

    Firstly, people blame others (i.e. the government) for their difficulties, but attribute all successes to their own efforts. This means that the winners from Brexit will see their newfound success as a result of their brilliance, while the losers will blame the Government and Brexit. Remember also that any company looking to close a factory in the UK in the next three years will blame Brexit, irrespective of any underlying causes.

    Secondly, the UK economy is much much weaker now than in 2007. Government debt-to-GDP is 90% not 40%. The country is no longer a net creditor to the world, but a substantial debtor. We continue to have very low levels of household savings, and a high current account deficit. And the longer we put off tackling these issues, the worse it will be when they come home to roost,

    Thirdly, the UK economy - like Japan and Italy and most of the rest of the developed world - is affected by the mother of all drags on economic growth: a worsening dependency ratio. This means that government healthcare and pension costs will continue to rise, with a diminishing number of people of working age to pay the bills.
    Not necessarily at all, the Tories won even in a recession in 1992 as the alternative was still worse and let us not forget Kinnock still gained 42 seats (from a Tory majority of 102 in 1987, the same as the Tories will now have in 2023/4 after the boundary changes are passed), an even more left wing Labour leader would have done worse still.

    Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed
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    Another Top 10, still no first as of yet.
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    RobD said:

    I can't even get a first when PB is quiet. Sad times. :(

    Same lol.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation

    Unless the electorate has a collective fit of buyer's remorse, which is still possible if it turns out the Conservative government was not lying about Project Fear.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    It still really puzzles me why the lefties want to stay in a club that is basically market based capitalism, run by a managerial technocracy with one pillar of it's core a deregulated labour market (think posted workers).
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324
    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily at all, the Tories won even in a recession in 1992 as the alternative was still worse and let us not forget Kinnock still gained 42 seats (from a Tory majority of 102 in 1987, the same as the Tories will now have in 2023/4 after the boundary changes are passed), an even more left wing Labour leader would have done worse still.

    Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed

    The thing is, though, in 1992, the Conservative Government could point to the remarkable transformation of the British economy in the 1980s, and take credit for it. In 1979, Britain had been the sick man of Europe. Thirteen years of Conservative government later, it was unrecognisable. So while the UK was in recession, the British people had had a boom before the bust. If we have a bust this time around, where was the boom?

    I also love your breezy confidence: "with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed"

    Tell me, how many free trade deals has the US entered into in the last decade or even twenty years?

    There's been the "renegotiation" of NAFTA (to make it a slightly less free trade agreement). And that's about it.

    Would you like to speculate on why the US has entered into so few free trade agreements?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    It still really puzzles me why the lefties want to stay in a club that is basically market based capitalism, run by a managerial technocracy with one pillar of it's core a deregulated labour market (think posted workers).

    You're still thinking around a simplistic left-right axis.

    A lot of pro-EU youngsters think in terms of personal freedom. The freedom to marry who they want (irrespective of sex), to smoke what they want, to identify as whatever gender they want, and to work with (and hang out with people from) whichever countries they want. They see they EU as one of the drivers of personal freedom.

    But while they love personal freedom, they want to restrict corporate freedom. They companies are overmighty, and see nation states as too spineless and in hock to deal with them and their tax evasion. They see the EU as a counterweight.

    Now, what the young fail to realise is that governance works best when there are proper democratic structures, and when things evolve slowly over long periods of time, and that to have an EU state, you need the majority of people to feel EU-citizens over British citizens.

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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    ydoethur said:

    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?

    I can't understand it either.
    de Valera,Tampon Taxation,Collins,Lloyd Georgie,Poll Tax.

    I think he is trying to compare the Irish Civil War with today, arguing that Labour should split like Sinn Fein and continue the war like the IRA.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Get in the Xmas spirit with Die Hard 2, Film4 9pm.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    It still really puzzles me why the lefties want to stay in a club that is basically market based capitalism, run by a managerial technocracy with one pillar of it's core a deregulated labour market (think posted workers).

    It's an Identity Crisis.
    The reason the center left has declined in the west.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    On topic, in our sham democracy the majority doesn’t even have the support of a majority.
  • Options
    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ydoethur said:

    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?

    You’re not the only one. I think it’s saying that Labour’s Brexit policy was correct and they should continue in a similar vein. But I’m quite possibly incorrect.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    It still really puzzles me why the lefties want to stay in a club that is basically market based capitalism, run by a managerial technocracy with one pillar of it's core a deregulated labour market (think posted workers).

    There's a big sorting out process going on, in which people who used to vote Labour now realise they have more in common with the Conservatives, and (to a lesser extent) vice versa.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily at all, the Tories won even in a recession in 1992 as the alternative was still worse and let us not forget Kinnock still gained 42 seats (from a Tory majority of 102 in 1987, the same as the Tories will now have in 2023/4 after the boundary changes are passed), an even more left wing Labour leader would have done worse still.

    Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed

    The thing is, though, in 1992, the Conservative Government could point to the remarkable transformation of the British economy in the 1980s, and take credit for it. In 1979, Britain had been the sick man of Europe. Thirteen years of Conservative government later, it was unrecognisable. So while the UK was in recession, the British people had had a boom before the bust. If we have a bust this time around, where was the boom?

    I also love your breezy confidence: "with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed"

    Tell me, how many free trade deals has the US entered into in the last decade or even twenty years?

    There's been the "renegotiation" of NAFTA (to make it a slightly less free trade agreement). And that's about it.

    Would you like to speculate on why the US has entered into so few free trade agreements?
    Where was the boom? The fact unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010, the deficit is down and wages are up that is where.

    Whether or not we agree a trade deal with the US will in any case make little difference to the election result, if we do great, if not we will just be where we are now. A deal with the EU that ends free movement and enables reclamation of sovereignty etc is more important.

    Of course it is possible for Labour to get back after 13 years out of power, as 2023 would be but that would require them to get a more centrist electable leader as the Tories did with Cameron to return them to power after 13 years in opposition in 2010 (at a push Starmer or Jess Phillips would fit the bill). Otherwise as is likely Labour will stick to the left under a Long Bailey or Rayner and the left will take 2 decades to return to power, as was the case when they finally picked Blair to return them to power after 18 years in opposition in 1997.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Slightly out of topic.

    The more I see the polls that all potential Labour Leaders are very unpopular the more I think that Labour needs a caretaker Leader that respects all factions, until Labour finds what it wants.

    I have come to the opinion that the PLP Chairman John Cryer might be the best caretaker choice, he seems to go along with most MP's and won't be a threat for any future candidate.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    edited December 2019
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?

    You’re not the only one. I think it’s saying that Labour’s Brexit policy was correct and they should continue in a similar vein. But I’m quite possibly incorrect.
    It reminds me of the time I tried to read a book by Georges Duby, which started with a broad-brush discussion of French agriculture in the Middle Ages but by page three and from then on was obsessed with what sort of cowshit they used as fertiliser.

    But at least then I could work out the main message. Here I’m at something of a loss.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,070
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily at all, the Tories won even in a recession in 1992 as the alternative was still worse and let us not forget Kinnock still gained 42 seats (from a Tory majority of 102 in 1987, the same as the Tories will now have in 2023/4 after the boundary changes are passed), an even more left wing Labour leader would have done worse still.

    Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed

    The thing is, though, in 1992, the Conservative Government could point to the remarkable transformation of the British economy in the 1980s, and take credit for it. In 1979, Britain had been the sick man of Europe. Thirteen years of Conservative government later, it was unrecognisable. So while the UK was in recession, the British people had had a boom before the bust. If we have a bust this time around, where was the boom?

    I also love your breezy confidence: "with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed"

    Tell me, how many free trade deals has the US entered into in the last decade or even twenty years?

    There's been the "renegotiation" of NAFTA (to make it a slightly less free trade agreement). And that's about it.

    Would you like to speculate on why the US has entered into so few free trade agreements?
    Where was the boom? The fact unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010, the deficit is down and wages are up that is where.

    Whether or not we agree a trade deal with the US will in any case make little difference to the election result, if we do great, if not we will just be where we are now. A deal with the EU that ends free movement and enables reclamation of sovereignty etc is more important.

    Of course it is possible for Labour to get back after 13 years out of power, as 2023 would be but that would require them to get a more centrist electable leader as the Tories did with Cameron to return them to power after 13 years in opposition in 2010 (at a push Starmer or Jess Phillips would fit the bill). Otherwise as is likely Labour will stick to the left under a Long Bailey or Rayner and the left will take 2 decades to return to power, as was the case when they finally picked Blair to return them to power after 18 years in opposition in 1997.
    Where was the boom?

    Look at real wage growth since the GFC and tell me there was a boom.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily at all, the Tories won even in a recession in 1992 as the alternative was still worse and let us not forget Kinnock still gained 42 seats (from a Tory majority of 102 in 1987, the same as the Tories will now have in 2023/4 after the boundary changes are passed), an even more left wing Labour leader would have done worse still.

    Plus once the Withdrawal Agreement is law and it has already passed the Commons, with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed

    The thing is, though, in 1992, the Conservative Government could point to the remarkable transformation of the British economy in the 1980s, and take credit for it. In 1979, Britain had been the sick man of Europe. Thirteen years of Conservative government later, it was unrecognisable. So while the UK was in recession, the British people had had a boom before the bust. If we have a bust this time around, where was the boom?

    I also love your breezy confidence: "with the new Tory majority free trade deals will be done with the EU and US and negotiations able to begin, it is then just a question of when not if they will be completed"

    Tell me, how many free trade deals has the US entered into in the last decade or even twenty years?

    There's been the "renegotiation" of NAFTA (to make it a slightly less free trade agreement). And that's about it.

    Would you like to speculate on why the US has entered into so few free trade agreements?
    Where was the boom? The fact unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010, the deficit is down and wages are up that is where.

    Whether or not we agree a trade deal with the US will in any case make little difference to the election result, if we do great, if not we will just be where we are now. A deal with the EU that ends free movement and enables reclamation of sovereignty etc is more important.

    Of course it is possible for Labour to get back after 13 years out of power, as 2023 would be but that would require them to get a more centrist electable leader as the Tories did with Cameron to return them to power after 13 years in opposition in 2010 (at a push Starmer or Jess Phillips would fit the bill). Otherwise as is likely Labour will stick to the left under a Long Bailey or Rayner and the left will take 2 decades to return to power, as was the case when they finally picked Blair to return them to power after 18 years in opposition in 1997.
    Where was the boom?

    Look at real wage growth since the GFC and tell me there was a boom.
    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008 and the employment rate is at its highest since 1971

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49328855
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    IanB2 said:

    Get in the Xmas spirit with Die Hard 2, Film4 9pm.

    Non pineapple already ordered!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades. Inflation is now just 1.5%.

    The Tories have a chance to achieve a period of power and dominance of the political scene unprecedented in 2 centuries due to their economic success, delivery of Brexit and the sheer uselessness of the opposition.

    That is how significant the triumphant result and victory Boris achieved could be
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    speedy2 said:

    Slightly out of topic.

    The more I see the polls that all potential Labour Leaders are very unpopular the more I think that Labour needs a caretaker Leader that respects all factions, until Labour finds what it wants.

    I have come to the opinion that the PLP Chairman John Cryer might be the best caretaker choice, he seems to go along with most MP's and won't be a threat for any future candidate.

    Excellent idea, except that it isn't possible to 'respect' both an illiberal, authoritarian, ignorant sub-Marxist, exclusive and fundamentalist sect and at the same time respect a sane, liberal, intellectual credible social democrat political movement.

    I don't support either of them, but I highly respect one of them. Can anyone respect more than one of these movements?

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
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    Labour have never gone wrong when they've chosen a former Major as their leader.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1209545619418886145
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation

    Well, not really. Despite the Tories victory at FPTP, the underlying opinion hasn't changed. Parties opposed to Brexit got a majority of votes....

    It won't take long for that victory to fade, and unless Brexit converts people whose opinion has been fixed for 42 months, retribution is on the way.

    It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
    You have missed the point. Parties in power WHEN WARS START get hammered in subsequent elections. Nothing to do with their economic management or otherwise during the war.

    Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
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    Happy Christmas everybody, may Santa bring what you really want.

    I'm currently watching Die Hard season two of Lost In Space.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Just popping in to wish everyone a very happy Xmas.

    I have been laid low with a very nasty leg infection necessitating bed rest and antibiotics and possible hospitalisation if that does not work. An absolute bummer as I had, amongst other things, planned to do lots of lovely walks in the woods here in Whicham.

    Man - or in this case, woman - proposes. God disposes.

    Still, 4 days without food and a high fever is one way of getting those pounds off. Every cloud, eh .....?

    V impressive local Community Hospital and GP practice here. But the word is that Barrow General Hospital is under acute pressure.

    In one of those circle of life things, when I started my pupillage training at the Bar, one of the very first cases my pupil master worked on was a building dispute about the construction of the then new Barrow General Hospital. God knows how any building was done at all as the architects and builders and engineers seemed to spend most of their days writing long letters to each other complaining about how awful everyone else’s work was. One of the barristers on the team was Emily Blunt’s father. We spent the days in a large Portakabin arguing about everything endlessly, with me as the new girl Friday, taking notes, generally being helpful etc and, incidentally, having to grin and bear the appalling sexism and misogyny from the builders who simply could not cope with the existence of a woman about 30 years younger.

    When they were together they simply could not resist behaving like 14 year old boys. Individually they were perfectly nice and talked quite lovingly about their families and, often, interestingly about their work. But their brains simply could not compute that behaviour which they would hate if directed at women in their family was also wrong if directed at some other non-family member.

    And in the evening we always had lovely big meals in a hotel. As a treat I was told that I could get to choose the wines and, as the builders were paying, I did not stint in my choices - either in quality or quantity. An unusual way to get some sort of wine education but you takes your chances in life.

    It would be an irony if I ended up in that wretched hospital all these years later. If I do I will be praying quite fervently for the medical expertise to be better than the building skills.

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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation

    Well, not really. Despite the Tories victory at FPTP, the underlying opinion hasn't changed. Parties opposed to Brexit got a majority of votes....

    It won't take long for that victory to fade, and unless Brexit converts people whose opinion has been fixed for 42 months, retribution is on the way.

    It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going...
    Technically Labour were not opposed to Brexit, they just wanted a confirmatory referendum on it but of course under FPTP getting over 50% of votes cast for a majority is not needed unlike the actual referendum where Leave had already got 52% and will finally get that mandate delivered
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
    You have missed the point. Parties in power WHEN WARS START get hammered in subsequent elections. Nothing to do with their economic management or otherwise during the war.

    Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
    Thatcher got a landslide in 1945 after the Falklands War, Blair won in 2005 after the Afghan and Iraq Wars, Major won in 1992 after the Gulf War, Salisbury won in 1900 after the Boer War. Attlee's Labour was also in power during WW2 with the Tories.

  • Options
    I'm sure their politics are at polar opposites but I see a resemblance between KT and wannabe Tory Paul Golding.

    https://twitter.com/ElCorbynista/status/1207768495116750857?s=20
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
    You have missed the point. Parties in power WHEN WARS START get hammered in subsequent elections. Nothing to do with their economic management or otherwise during the war.

    Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
    Thatcher got a landslide in 1945 after the Falklands War, Blair won in 2005 after the Afghan and Iraq Wars, Major won in 1992 after the Gulf War, Salisbury won in 1900 after the Boer War. Attlee's Labour was also in power during WW2 with the Tories.

    Are you seriously comparing those to the First and Second World Wars?

    And on your last point in case you had forgotten, the Unionists joined the Liberals in government in 1915.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Just popping in to wish everyone a very happy Xmas.

    I have been laid low with a very nasty leg infection necessitating bed rest and antibiotics and possible hospitalisation if that does not work. An absolute bummer as I had, amongst other things, planned to do lots of lovely walks in the woods here in Whicham.

    Man - or in this case, woman - proposes. God disposes.

    Still, 4 days without food and a high fever is one way of getting those pounds off. Every cloud, eh .....?

    V impressive local Community Hospital and GP practice here. But the word is that Barrow General Hospital is under acute pressure.

    In one of those circle of life things, when I started my pupillage training at the Bar, one of the very first cases my pupil master worked on was a building dispute about the construction of the then new Barrow General Hospital. God knows how any building was done at all as the architects and builders and engineers seemed to spend most of their days writing long letters to each other complaining about how awful everyone else’s work was. One of the barristers on the team was Emily Blunt’s father. We spent the days in a large Portakabin arguing about everything endlessly, with me as the new girl Friday, taking notes, generally being helpful etc and, incidentally, having to grin and bear the appalling sexism and misogyny from the builders who simply could not cope with the existence of a woman about 30 years younger.

    When they were together they simply could not resist behaving like 14 year old boys. Individually they were perfectly nice and talked quite lovingly about their families and, often, interestingly about their work. But their brains simply could not compute that behaviour which they would hate if directed at women in their family was also wrong if directed at some other non-family member.

    And in the evening we always had lovely big meals in a hotel. As a treat I was told that I could get to choose the wines and, as the builders were paying, I did not stint in my choices - either in quality or quantity. An unusual way to get some sort of wine education but you takes your chances in life.

    It would be an irony if I ended up in that wretched hospital all these years later. If I do I will be praying quite fervently for the medical expertise to be better than the building skills.

    Happy Christmas, young lady, and wish you better.
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    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation

    Well, not really. Despite the Tories victory at FPTP, the underlying opinion hasn't changed. Parties opposed to Brexit got a majority of votes....

    It won't take long for that victory to fade, and unless Brexit converts people whose opinion has been fixed for 42 months, retribution is on the way.

    It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going...
    Its over Foxy. We are going out in a month or so and there is no way back in the near future

    I expect by late spring support for the EU will be at very low levels
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    Cyclefree said:

    Just popping in to wish everyone a very happy Xmas.

    I have been laid low with a very nasty leg infection necessitating bed rest and antibiotics and possible hospitalisation if that does not work. An absolute bummer as I had, amongst other things, planned to do lots of lovely walks in the woods here in Whicham.

    Man - or in this case, woman - proposes. God disposes.

    Still, 4 days without food and a high fever is one way of getting those pounds off. Every cloud, eh .....?

    V impressive local Community Hospital and GP practice here. But the word is that Barrow General Hospital is under acute pressure.

    In one of those circle of life things, when I started my pupillage training at the Bar, one of the very first cases my pupil master worked on was a building dispute about the construction of the then new Barrow General Hospital. God knows how any building was done at all as the architects and builders and engineers seemed to spend most of their days writing long letters to each other complaining about how awful everyone else’s work was. One of the barristers on the team was Emily Blunt’s father. We spent the days in a large Portakabin arguing about everything endlessly, with me as the new girl Friday, taking notes, generally being helpful etc and, incidentally, having to grin and bear the appalling sexism and misogyny from the builders who simply could not cope with the existence of a woman about 30 years younger.

    When they were together they simply could not resist behaving like 14 year old boys. Individually they were perfectly nice and talked quite lovingly about their families and, often, interestingly about their work. But their brains simply could not compute that behaviour which they would hate if directed at women in their family was also wrong if directed at some other non-family member.

    And in the evening we always had lovely big meals in a hotel. As a treat I was told that I could get to choose the wines and, as the builders were paying, I did not stint in my choices - either in quality or quantity. An unusual way to get some sort of wine education but you takes your chances in life.

    It would be an irony if I ended up in that wretched hospital all these years later. If I do I will be praying quite fervently for the medical expertise to be better than the building skills.

    Hope you feel better soon. It’s always at the worst time, isn’t it?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited December 2019

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, Labour can still push for remaining in a customs union and/or the single market but what the election result confirmed was that voters want the Brexit they voted for delivered and there can be no question of even considering rejoining the full EU for at least a generation

    Well, not really. Despite the Tories victory at FPTP, the underlying opinion hasn't changed. Parties opposed to Brexit got a majority of votes....

    It won't take long for that victory to fade, and unless Brexit converts people whose opinion has been fixed for 42 months, retribution is on the way.

    It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going...
    Its over Foxy. We are going out in a month or so and there is no way back in the near future

    I expect by late spring support for the EU will be at very low levels
    Yep. Once we're out there will be no status quo rejoin option. It's either fully in (including Euro/schengen etc) or out. There is no majority for joining the euro, nor will there be any time soon.
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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    Chameleon said:


    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.

    The rebate would be a goner certainly. Schengen we could get again though, and on the Euro I'm guessing there'd be some fudge - we'd commit to moving towards membership, but both sides would be aware there's no intention of progressing further than that.

    EFTA as a first step seems politically more likely than straight rejoin though. Wouldn't be at all surprising if that's Labour policy sometime in the near future.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    Merry Christmas to all you wonderful PB people. I hope you all have an enjoyable and peaceful few days.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    Let’s see how you feel as and when no deal rears it’s ugly head again next year.
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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
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    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    Let’s see how you feel as and when no deal rears it’s ugly head again next year.
    There is no going back now
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    The public has just given Boris the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher precisely to deliver Brexit. BigG is absolutely right
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
    You have missed the point. Parties in power WHEN WARS START get hammered in subsequent elections. Nothing to do with their economic management or otherwise during the war.

    Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
    Thatcher got a landslide in 1945 after the Falklands War, Blair won in 2005 after the Afghan and Iraq Wars, Major won in 1992 after the Gulf War, Salisbury won in 1900 after the Boer War. Attlee's Labour was also in power during WW2 with the Tories.

    Are you seriously comparing those to the First and Second World Wars?

    And on your last point in case you had forgotten, the Unionists joined the Liberals in government in 1915.
    So neither WW1 nor WW2 then are really any grounds for your original proposition and my point stands absolutely, there is no evidence whatsoever for your statement that parties in office when wars start get hammered in subsequent elections
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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    The country is not in a terrible place. It would have been under Corbyn but I have little doubt we will make a success of it. Some short term pain both for us and the EU is possible but in 5 years it will not be an issue
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    The public has just given Boris the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher precisely to deliver Brexit. BigG is absolutely right
    The public gave Boris 1% more vote share than May. The public have given Boris nothing. The result is simply a byproduct of the voting system.
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    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    The public has just given Boris the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher precisely to deliver Brexit. BigG is absolutely right
    The public rejected Jeremy Corbyn. It would be a grave mistake to treat the result as an enthusiastic endorsement of Brexit.
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    Merry Christmas to all you wonderful PB people. I hope you all have an enjoyable and peaceful few days.

    +1000
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    The public has just given Boris the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher precisely to deliver Brexit. BigG is absolutely right
    The public rejected Jeremy Corbyn. It would be a grave mistake to treat the result as an enthusiastic endorsement of Brexit.
    The LDs lost a seat net on a revoke Brexit platform, the Tories vote and seat count was up on a deliver Brexit platform and even the Brexit Party got more votes than UKIP did in 2017
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    If you have to remind people that the country is in such a terrible place, it isn't.

    Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wages are now growing at their fastest rate since 2008

    In the First World War, wages in most occupations tripled.

    Anyone looking at wages like have been baffled by the huge number of strikes for higher pay, until they realised the cost of living had increased 500%.
    And the Tories won a landslide in 1918 and were in office for most of the following 2 decades
    Because they had not been in office when the war began and were not blamed for it.

    You may have noticed that having been in power in 1939 they got a brutal pounding in 1945.
    1945 was 27 years after 1918 so that does not refute my point at all and of course the Tories still returned to power 6 years after 1945 in 1951
    You have missed the point. Parties in power WHEN WARS START get hammered in subsequent elections. Nothing to do with their economic management or otherwise during the war.

    Although if you want a better example, Labour in 1945-51 had huge inflation including devaluation of the pound by around 30% in one year, no increase in wages and more severe rationing than there had been in the war - yet topped the popular vote in three consecutive elections.
    Thatcher got a landslide in 1945 after the Falklands War, Blair won in 2005 after the Afghan and Iraq Wars, Major won in 1992 after the Gulf War, Salisbury won in 1900 after the Boer War. Attlee's Labour was also in power during WW2 with the Tories.

    Are you seriously comparing those to the First and Second World Wars?

    And on your last point in case you had forgotten, the Unionists joined the Liberals in government in 1915.
    So neither WW1 nor WW2 then are really any grounds for your original proposition and my point stands absolutely, there is no evidence whatsoever for your statement that parties in office when wars start get hammered in subsequent elections
    In case you and forgotten - it was your original proposition, not mine.

    But diverting as it is to watch your tangling yourself up in your own contradictions, it seems a total waste of time.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    Deepest sympathy to you and Marquee Mark as you cope with your losses.

    And best wishes to evryone for a peaceful Christmas and a profitable new year.
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    speedy2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?

    I can't understand it either.
    de Valera,Tampon Taxation,Collins,Lloyd Georgie,Poll Tax.

    I think he is trying to compare the Irish Civil War with today, arguing that Labour should split like Sinn Fein and continue the war like the IRA.
    Labour are closer to the SDLP.
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    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    Sorry to hear your loss no right turn.
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    Happy Christmas everybody, may Santa bring what you really want.

    I'm currently watching Die Hard season two of Lost In Space.

    Same to you my friend.
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    Merry Christmas to all you wonderful PB people. I hope you all have an enjoyable and peaceful few days.

    Same to you :smile:
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    Hugs and sherry for Jonathan.

    Really. We are all sinners and mortals here.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    I am sorry to hear that. My condolences to you and your family.

    My mother died on 2 January. I spoke to her last on NY’s eve and saw her last at Xmas. My father also died in early January so this time of year always has an element of sorrow about it.

    You never get over the death of someone you love. But you do - eventually, somehow - get past it.
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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    If you have to remind people that the country is in such a terrible place, it isn't.

    Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
    PB is infested with nutjobs who see Brexit as an end in itself. Meanwhile the economy is flatlining, about to be given a further severe shock and has a government intent on isolating itself as far as possible from the rest of the international community. The death cult will cheer and the country will continue its long term decline.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    My condolences. Not easy....people here being so damned nice though.
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    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    So sorry Jonathan for your loss. My partner of 40 years died a few days before Christmas last year and it was devastating. May you and your family find some comfort and peace over the coming days and months
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    If you have to remind people that the country is in such a terrible place, it isn't.

    Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
    PB is infested with nutjobs who see Brexit as an end in itself. Meanwhile the economy is flatlining, about to be given a further severe shock and has a government intent on isolating itself as far as possible from the rest of the international community. The death cult will cheer and the country will continue its long term decline.
    Aww, go on, give your silly self a big ol' squeeze.

    YOU DESERVE IT, for being so cheerful

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    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    If you have to remind people that the country is in such a terrible place, it isn't.

    Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
    PB is infested with nutjobs who see Brexit as an end in itself. Meanwhile the economy is flatlining, about to be given a further severe shock and has a government intent on isolating itself as far as possible from the rest of the international community. The death cult will cheer and the country will continue its long term decline.
    I give up Alastair. Of course we are not going to isolate ourselves and as my eldest son in Canada said last night we are the sixth biggest economy, still retain friendship of those in the former commonwealth, and it is absolutely the right thing to do. He has no expectations for the EU to prosper as the markets shift to the far east.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    My condolences. Not easy....people here being so damned nice though.
    @MarqueeMark Found your post from earlier today. So sorry that your going through it too. Your situation sounds eerily similar, right down to having to do it all with a horrible cold. I can’t conjure any wise or comforting words I’m afraid, but you’re not alone and clearly we all care.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    I can't even get a first when PB is quiet. Sad times. :(

    Same lol.
    The house always wins
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.
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    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    My condolences. Not easy....people here being so damned nice though.
    @MarqueeMark Found your post from earlier today. So sorry that your going through it too. Your situation sounds eerily similar, right down to having to do it all with a horrible cold. I can’t conjure any wise or comforting words I’m afraid, but you’re not alone and clearly we all care.

    We really do all care

    So many of us have passed that way ourselves over the years and it is a very difficult and emotional time for all the family.

    Love and best wishes from Big G and Mrs Big G
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,070
    Byronic said:

    Chameleon said:

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    That's a fairly delusional take. Once we are outside the EU, which *will* happen in about a month we would not be offered the rebate, opt outs on schengen and the Euro. Any rejoin campaign would be buried by that.
    The delusion is yours. The EU would be accommodating to get Britain’s return if that looked securely founded. Of the three you list, only the rebate would be definitely lost. And the actual contribution could be fudged.
    Alastair. It is over. Boris has an 80 seat majority and the opposition is in bits

    Unless you can come to terms with the reality, I do worry you are going to be in a very unhappy place for a very long time
    You seem to be under the impression that the public is happy with Brexit and that it is going to be a success. The public on balance remains of the view that Brexit is a bad idea and the reality of it is not going to improve their view of it.

    The country is in a terrible place and it is only going to get worse. The turning point will come when Leavers accept that Brexit is a fiasco. That will, unfortunately, take a while yet.
    If you have to remind people that the country is in such a terrible place, it isn't.

    Happy Christmas to all PBers! And every happiness and success in the New Year.
    PB is infested with nutjobs who see Brexit as an end in itself. Meanwhile the economy is flatlining, about to be given a further severe shock and has a government intent on isolating itself as far as possible from the rest of the international community. The death cult will cheer and the country will continue its long term decline.
    Aww, go on, give your silly self a big ol' squeeze.

    YOU DESERVE IT, for being so cheerful

    It's the most wonderful time of the year.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Oh, for heaven’s sake! Big hugs.
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    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Really, that is so upsetting for you all
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Dear heaven. What a time you’re having as a family. Best wishes to you all.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401
    edited December 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Really, that is so upsetting for you all
    Wishing Jonathan and family all the best... they do.marvels these days. My late wife had chemo and radiotherapy.. and survived Breast Cancer . When she died of something unrelated there was no trace of cancer....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Solid boiled thread header from Egg, but I am going to leave the politics alone for once.

    Just saw Knives Out, which was ridiculous fun.
    Jamie Lee Curtis wore spectacles which made her look eerily reminiscent of her father in Some Like It Hot at times.

    Recommended.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Brexit is nowhere near as firmly cemented as its proponents hope and its opponents fear. The public remain profoundly unconvinced by it and have elected only to let it proceed as a matter of democracy following the referendum. If it is perceived to be the failure that the public expect, it will remain a live topic for the foreseeable future.

    I think the voters are bored of Brexitvand will give short shrift to anyone who bangs on about it.

    If it goes badly they will blame the government, of course, but for the symptoms (eg economic) rather than what you perceive as the cause.

    I don’t think the argument “to solve our economic problems we should rejoin the EU” will win the votes you think it will
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Troubles come in regiments, and sometimes you just have to accept this, and hide in the bunker, and wait for the armies to pass.

    Many of us on PB are of an age when there is always an enemy waiting to march.

    Good luck.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m afraid I’m struggling to understand this article. Is it saying Labour should continue to oppose Brexit even though it’s impossible, but in doing so it will split the party? Or is it arguing the opposite?

    You’re not the only one. I think it’s saying that Labour’s Brexit policy was correct and they should continue in a similar vein. But I’m quite possibly incorrect.
    I agree. I think it’s fighting in the fields and streets rather than the beaches and landing grounds but definitely a theme of “never surrender” “whatever the cost may be”
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,936
    Merry Christmas to all.

    Best wishes, particularly to those who have suffered a loss or poor health recently.
    Brexit, Boris and other battles can wait for a few days - I'm lucky to be healthy, happy and with family.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @Jonathan @MarqueeMark

    So sorry to hear of your respective troubles. Best wishes to you and those you love
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Seasonal wishes to all PBers, especially those going through hardships. Without being mawkish, I find it an inordinately useful outlet.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    rcs1000 said:

    It still really puzzles me why the lefties want to stay in a club that is basically market based capitalism, run by a managerial technocracy with one pillar of it's core a deregulated labour market (think posted workers).

    You're still thinking around a simplistic left-right axis.

    A lot of pro-EU youngsters think in terms of personal freedom. The freedom to marry who they want (irrespective of sex), to smoke what they want, to identify as whatever gender they want, and to work with (and hang out with people from) whichever countries they want. They see they EU as one of the drivers of personal freedom.
    None of those are attributable to EU membership.
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    kle4 said:

    Seasonal wishes to all PBers, especially those going through hardships. Without being mawkish, I find it an inordinately useful outlet.

    It is a unique forum that fiercely argues each other corners with passion, but comes together when any of our fellow posters encounter emotional pain and hardship with great sympathy and understanding

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Troubles come in regiments, and sometimes you just have to accept this, and hide in the bunker, and wait for the armies to pass.

    Many of us on PB are of an age when there is always an enemy waiting to march.

    Good luck.
    Thanks. Quite right. This is life. Hard, but nothing out of the ordinary. I have no complaints, but the bunker sounds cozy and inviting.

    I tell you what though, puts Boris and Brexit into perspective. I’ve not drunk the Kool Aid for either, but that’s fine.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Charles said:

    @Jonathan @MarqueeMark

    So sorry to hear of your respective troubles. Best wishes to you and those you love

    Much appreciated Charles.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Charles said:

    @Jonathan @MarqueeMark

    So sorry to hear of your respective troubles. Best wishes to you and those you love

    Much appreciated Charles.
    Indeed. Thanks Charles and everyone.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Troubles come in regiments, and sometimes you just have to accept this, and hide in the bunker, and wait for the armies to pass.

    Many of us on PB are of an age when there is always an enemy waiting to march.

    Good luck.
    Thanks. Quite right. This is life. Hard, but nothing out of the ordinary. I have no complaints, but the bunker sounds cozy and inviting.

    I tell you what though, puts Boris and Brexit into perspective. I’ve not drunk the Kool Aid for either, but that’s fine.
    Yup. I have a friend who says to me, whenever I am lamenting, "Hey, remember: it's not the trenches"

    Aaaaand, it's not. We on PB are all experiencing the sadness and pain (and joys and desires) of ordinary human life. That is wonderful, in its way. We are alive, and we die. We meet with fun and grief on the way.

    So many millions of humans have had it much much worse, including our great great grandfathers in the trenches. Indeed I think this is why we revere the Great War. It is the measure of extreme human suffering, if you are British.

    Ils ne passeront pas!

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Happy Christmas.

    Difficult one in family Jonathan this year, first one without mum who died on Friday. Makes you appreciate life and the important things. The most important thing here is not the politics, but the friendship. Those occasional moments that cut across and connect people who frame the world in different ways. A rare feat today.

    My condolences. Not easy....people here being so damned nice though.
    @MarqueeMark Found your post from earlier today. So sorry that your going through it too. Your situation sounds eerily similar, right down to having to do it all with a horrible cold. I can’t conjure any wise or comforting words I’m afraid, but you’re not alone and clearly we all care.

    Best to both of you.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    And some superb perspective, if any PB-er needs it

    https://twitter.com/wonderofscience/status/1208899416465100801?s=20
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401
    Mini nightmare just now accidentally clicked on link to old thread from 2012. Look at the Comres !!!

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/07/31/surge-in-public-positivity-as-olympics-get-under-way/
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348

    Mini nightmare just now accidentally clicked on link to old thread from 2012. Look at the Comres !!!

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/07/31/surge-in-public-positivity-as-olympics-get-under-way/

    Oh, I don’t know.
    There’s likely a fair percentage of the population excited about Brexit.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Thanks all for the kind thoughts. PB provides healthy distraction despite politics to going quite my way these days. If I were a tad touchy of late, you might have a clue as to why. It was all made somewhat worse by the fact my sister was also diagnosed with breast cancer yesterday. It has been a truly shitty week.

    Sorry to hear that Jonathan.

    Best wishes to you and your family.

    Yesterday we found out that one of my son's left Kidney is failing / failed (more tests in new year)

    As you say a pretty shitty week but it does remind us about what is truly important in life.

    As an old colleague used to say "enjoy life, this aint no dress rehearsal"
This discussion has been closed.