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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted
In the US, of course, the Democratic party colour is blue and the Republican one red. So the message is that it would be President Romney now if the franchise has been what it was before the 15th Amendment, restricted to white men.
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"How Man City doing"
What I said back, now that was a smear.... he's coming back to do the windows today while I'm out.
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
health minister Jane Ellison tells @BBCr4today Labour looking silly after allegations of being in hock to big tobacco
@SouthamObserver wrote :
"Great stuff on here this morning from a few of our right-leaning posters. Smear, smear, smear they grizzle as they throw personal insults at Tim. The hypocrisy is glorious."
........................................................................................
SO - thy middle name is irony.
The PM has done exactly what he said he would do. Wait several months until the results of the Oz review was clear. It is, he's acted - What's the problem ??
If one was inclined to make a political point out of the issue, then one might remind you that Labour failed to implement these measures in 13 years .... but I'll not mention that.
David Aaronovitch@DAaronovitch18h
Just listening to @YvetteCooperMP essentially attacking Teresa May for not being tough enough soon enough on EU migrants. Just awful.
I'm not sure if tickets are still available, but Douglas Hurd is giving a talk about Disraeli on Sunday, here in Cambridge.
It might be of interest to some.
http://www.cambridgewordfest.co.uk/festivals/winter/event/view/Douglas+Hurd+and+Edward+Young
"Portugal is set for another tough year after its government approved a new set of budget measures.
The country is struggling to come back to financial health and meet the terms of an international bailout......
Public employees earning more than 675 euros (£565, $915) a month will see their pay cut by between 2.5-12%, pensions above a certain amount will be cut by 10% and working hours raised from 35 to 40 hours a week.
They will also lose three days' holiday a year.
About 80% of the government workforce, or some 600,000 workers, will be affected."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25112393
Ireland has done this and now Portugal, when with the UK take this much needed medicine?
Obama 538 .. Romney 0
According to my Far Eastern bookmaker these figures are close to the score of both the next away match for Tottenham Hotspur and the smears from "tim" against the PM this week.
All entirely reasonable.
Only a third (36%) of UK teenagers are deterred from smoking by current cigarette packs, compared to half (48%) of teenagers in Australia, where packs are almost entirely covered by graphic warnings, according to our unique cross-hemisphere survey.
The poll of 2,500 13- to 18-year-olds in the UK and Australia, the first country in the world to adopt standardised cigarette packs last year, revealed nearly 8 in 10 (77%) British teenagers think the UK should introduce standardised cigarette packs.
http://www.bhf.org.uk/default.aspx?page=16473
Yes 5.5 (was 6 yesterday)
No 1.21
If that man is the next leader of the Liberal Democrats then you can start writing their obituary now Mike. He was mind-bogglingly poor. Really, really embarrassing stuff.
You imply that a lot of them didn't like Cameron's plan to bring on more women and non-white candidates. That's not right (although I am sure there were a few unreconstructed misogynists, there are in all parties). A lot of people didn't like the methods chosen - the A list, parachuted candidates, etc, but that is a process question (central vs local control) not a question of gender or race
Hours after David Cameron outlined a crackdown on benefit tourism, France and Germany sensationally followed suit with similar plans.
The triple assault pushed Brussels on to the back foot and one of its commissioners was told to quit for claiming Britain risked becoming the ‘nasty country’ of Europe.
In Westminster, 46 Tory MPs kept up the pressure by signing a Commons motion calling for restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian workers to stay in place after January 1 because Britain was ‘full up’.
An agreement signed by Angela Merkel’s new coalition government in Berlin said ‘poverty migration’ from new EU countries was causing considerable social problems.
It declared: ‘We will therefore tackle unjustified benefit claims by EU citizens.’
Francois Hollande’s socialist government said the ‘social dumping’ of people from poor Eastern European states amounted to ‘a threat to the economic and social fabric of France’.
His ministers outlined plans to limit the rights of temporary workers from other countries.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514713/Germany-France-join-PM-benefit-tourism-crackdown.html#ixzz2lvQ391X8
Cameron is at a meeting today in Lithuania regarding this subject and the accession rights of the former eastern bloc countries.
It'd be interesting to see comparable maps for other groups only. As I recall, whites were the most divided demographic.
F1: Mercedes will announce, apparently, Brawn's departure. It's suspected he'll take a year off, possibly before returning to the sport:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25125831
Poor Labour - they were told at the time that Crosby advises on the Conservative party, not government policy - and now that smear has blown up in their face they are having a whinge.....
The London Mayor called for the creation of a new generation of grammar schools to help the brightest children from poor homes.
Arguing that some people were simply not bright enough to succeed in the modern world, Mr Johnson hailed what he called the ‘spirit of envy’, and said inequality was ‘essential’ for economic growth.
He also appeared to echo the fictional film character Gordon Gekko, whose notorious motto was ‘greed is good’, saying that greed was ‘a valuable spur to economic activity’.
But he insisted he did not want the economic recovery to breed a new generation of ‘heartless’ bankers.
Delivering the annual Margaret Thatcher Lecture – staged by the right-wing Centre for Policy Studies think-tank – he insisted the rich had a duty to help the poor and embrace philanthropy.
And he urged the Government to do much more to help bright children from poor homes to get a good education.
He called for the reintroduction of John Major’s assisted places scheme, which paid for the brightest poor children to go to public schools – and accused the Tories of hypocrisy for blocking a revival of the grammar school system.
But his most controversial comments came when he said globalisation was intensifying the trend towards inequality......
Mr Johnson said: ‘I am afraid that violent economic centrifuge is operating on human beings who are already very far from equal in raw ability, if not spiritual worth.
‘Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests, it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16 per cent of our species have an IQ below 85, while about 2 per cent have an IQ above 130.
‘The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will be for some cornflakes to get to the top
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514720/Boris-Johnson-Tackling-economic-equality-futile-peoples-IQ-low.html#ixzz2lvRhHXmr
The Commons Speaker prompted criticism when he blamed the expenses scandal on Westminster becoming less ‘meaningful’ rather than on collective ‘malice or corruption’.....
‘The reality in 2009 is that the House of Commons as a meaningful political institution … had been in decline for some decades.’
He added: ‘The House appeared to be little more than a cross between a rubber stamp and a talking shop which had taken to collective activity such as the imaginative interpretation of what might be a legitimate expense claim – as much as an odd form of displacement activity as out of any shared sense of malice or corruption.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2514625/Politicians-fiddled-expenses-bored-increasingly-irrelevant-Parliament-says-John-Bercow.html#ixzz2lvSbhYv4
Was Bercow referring to the HoC being a rubber stamp for the EU and Brussels or was he meaning the political domination of the constituency parties and their MPs from Westminster?
Sorry Mike but what does that tell us one way or the other?
It just sets a false-premised discussion (what if only left-handed ostrich-fanciers had voted).
Off-topic 1. Guardian online re-design: I hate it but then I am, ahem, a conservative.
Off-topic 2. Saw Gravity last night. Excellent. Key is the length. Before you have time to work out whether you really should be enjoying it as much as you are...it's over.
I'm sure you wouldn't make any important business decision without looking at the evidence, and if there wasn't enough evidence to make a judgement I guess you'd wait if you could?
CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden
Labour cover-up: whistleblower who exposed the Falkirk scandal eliminated from Labour candidates list #SameOldLabour http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25132696 …
Can we look forward to a rousing rendition of "British Jobs For British Workers" at the funeral?
EDIT - Cross-posted with Charles and then SouthamObserver
Better keep the cornflakes in a different shaped container. wider and less deep. then do less shaking. all the flakes will be nearer the top and less will be broken
But I do know a number of Muslim small businesspeople who say their economic situation tempts them to vote Conservative (they hope for lower taxes) and who aren't in the least militant and think Abu Hamza is a nutter, but they feel that only Labour is actually friendly, and the Tory view ranges from wariness to hostility, so they vote Labour anyway.
As a general passing comment, pb is at its least entertaining when we debate each others' characters and posting habits. People are as they are - read, skip, ignore, whatever. On fags, it does look like a U-turn and is being generally interpreted as such in the media. But it's a good one and we should welcome it. It'd be nice if they just did it, though, rather than merely announce a new review. The default assumption should now be that blank packaging helps saves lives, and there is no downside, since nobody supposes that plain packaging will increase use. Get on with it!
If everybody stopped smoking it'd create a new funding gap as smokers contribute far more in taxes than they cost in medical expenses. If they all stopped then we'd lose the tax income, make a (smaller) saving on medical costs and have to pay more in pensions.
On the other hand, if everybody stopped drinking the NHS would be miles better off.
We are down to trying to assess how each nationality or race will behave as though they are a homogenous mass rather than a mass of individuals, each with a range of interests and priorities, some of which coincide.
Not to play the tree-hugging woolly liberal here but I don't see a constructive discussion to be had based upon racial, ethnic or even nationalist profiling.
As SO notes, plain packaging is a major step that limits individual freedom and property rights. It is *only* justifiable if there is a clear public health benefit. You can't just casually infringe important rights based on a hunch or an assumption. Asking for evidence is not unreasonable.
Yet the overall point Tim et al make about the politics is sound: the idea that this a) isn't a u-turn and b) hasn't been done because of the odious Crosby's links is utterly risible. Of course it is.
But this is a Tory story of the Falkirk/Flowers variety - it's about associations, about which the public cares not a jot and will move VI not a smigeon.
We're talking about fag packet design ffs.
Life, liberty, freedom of expression, the right to have shiny colours and logos on your 20 B&H
Exactly. No "important Rights" are being infringed. Nah, Charles is talking tripe.
As for the move itself, it's clearly a political decision and a uturn. But it's welcome, and Tories should see it as a sign of strength from Cameron for realising he got it wrong, rather than this rather lame defensive guff about Australia.
Cameron is becoming just another something must be done merchant.
Why does he think this piece of intervention will now make the difference?
RichardNabavi said:
TSE, you missed the must-read item of the day (and perhaps the year):
http://www.cps.org.uk/files/factsheets/original/131127181634-BorisJohnsonMargaretThatcherlecture.pdf?utm_source=Press+&+Political+Only&utm_campaign=ae887ad5ff-FTT_chown_lawson&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9f3445a366-ae887ad5ff-303574161
I have rarely read so much of a political speech that I agree with.
"It seems to me therefore that though it would be wrong to persecute the rich, and madness to try and stifle wealth creation, and futile to try and stamp out inequality, that we should only tolerate this wealth gap on two conditions: one, that we help those who genuinely cannot compete; and two, that we provide opportunity for those who can."
If you were to seek to sum up modern conservatism in a single sentence I think you would be hard put to improve on that.
Perhaps a little dig about the independence debate as well?
As James indicates there were definitely signals being sent from Clegg's spinners that it was at least in part because of how Moore fared against Sturgeon when he debated her.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/sturgeon-v-lib-dems-third-choice.html
Which is why we got the calamitous "bruiser" Carmichael stupidity from the inept lib dem spin machine. Carmichael certainly looked every bit the bruiser repeatedly begging for help from the moderator Rona to save him from Sturgeon. LOL
Though I think the truth about the reasons for dumping Moore are a wee bit more complex than that. Sure Moore didn't fare well against Sturgeon but by god he still fared SO much better than the buffoon Carmichael did. How the spinners wish they'd never used that as the excuse to dump Moore now
I think this is fairly close to the mark Carmichael likely wanted some time in the spotlight and greater recognition while the coalition lasted and that just ain't what a whip does. Sadly for him I don't think he realised that keeping lib dem MPs in order is a great deal easier than being an effective communicator in public
Michael Moore was by far the safer and more credible operator, comparatively at least, and that was proved in spades last night
But, as always, you care about headlines. I want the government to do the right thing in the right way.
A few random thoughts for the day - I still don't care very much about Scotland and certainly not enough to have an opinion about every twist and turn in the debate.
I do think having a referendum on whether London should leave the United Kingdom would be a much more interesting exercise - the economic argument would be on very different territory than we are seeing at present for example.
Boris's comments - I'm not a fan and I don't think he's done very much with his Mayoralty to be honest. Of course, he's right but where I part company with him is less the fact that he welcomes and almost glorifies in the fact of the inequality but the fact that he seems completely unable to suggest a solution to the problem (other than to argue that it's not a problem at all).
When others abdicate this ground, the statist solution occupies it.
On the substantive. I live in East Ham, which is as cosmopolitan as it gets - the Romanians and Bulgarians are already here and having an impact. Nick Palmer's salient point is one I've heard often down the years - the local Conservatives claim inroads into the Tamil business community but the vote of one shopkeeper and his family are quickly outweighed by the votes of his customers so I'm less convinced.
Finally, I've long been convinced that the relationship between David Cameron and George Osborne is nowhere near as good as it once was - perhaps the inevitability of proximity - or as some conservatives try to insist. It should also be remembered that it was Cameron who vetoed the scrapping of the 50p tax rate in 2012 as part of the "quad" with Clegg and Alexander. The two LDs opposed it but it would have gone through with Cameron's support - at that meeting on the Friday before the Budget it clearly wasn't forthcoming.
Osborne has since manoeuvred to tighten his grip on the Government and he is for me in the prime position to succeed Cameron if the latter is able to retire on his own terms and is also in a strong position to fight for the leadership if Cameron leaves or is forced out after an election defeat in 2015.
Where's the U-turn? Talk me through it because its difficult to see what is different between what Hunt said in July and what is now happening.
"But Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the government wanted to see how the policy had worked in Australia, the first country to introduce plain packaging last year, before making a "final decision".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23281804
Labour must answer the SNP with more than a slogan
Unless Ed Miliband defines what One Nation means, the nationalists could win a victory that will leave him paralysed
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/27/labour-must-answer-snp-more-than-slogan?CMP=twt_fd
It was also believed that Asian voters tended to be Tories and Afro-Caribbeans Labour.
Of course there was hardly any polling data in those days so views tended to be anecdotal, but nevertheless it's interesting that the genders seemed to have reversed their positions over the past generation or so.
@NickPalmer - I personally want to replace smoking with an alternative method of nicotine delivery. I believe in harm reduction. But waiting 6 months to look at new evidence is the right thing to do because it wiill significantly strengthen. The certainty with which we can form our views.
I am referring to farmers in the North of Scotland. There are quality of life issues, as well as just specific fact points such as road death.
But you don't understand quality of life. Otherwise you might go and get some instead of posting all day and every day on here.
'Jonathan Portes @jdportes 4m
Good news: more people immigration to the UK, especially to work: pic.twitter.com/QF4dL1uXMa'
Portes on immigration is about as reliable as Ed Balls on structural deficits.
That position has been somewhat reversed now.
Life is not black and white.
How's that for you?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/what-the-2012-election-would-have-looked-like-with
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president
Nice to see some self awareness creeping in.. still a long way to go old boy...
It occurred to me that the Scottish no campaign could do with someone who offered a brilliantly positive vision of UK PLC Like Boris does here, instead of the dismal warnings of what life might be like with independence.
LATEST:Police Scotland say its chief constable "looking into" protests staged by Unite union at homes of Grangemouth refinery bosses
Unemployment is falling by around 500 a day. 3/4 of the jobs being created are either going to immigrants, those who already have a job and those that do not qualify for benefits because they have a partner in employment in roughly that order.
If these immigrants are bringing skills that our indiginous population do not have they are to be welcomed because they will help to create wealth here and further employment. But the willingness to work hard should not be regarded as a skill.
As through the last government we are still excluding a significant part of our population from the benefits of economic growth. We are exposing them to a level of competetion that they cannot match because they were so poorly educated in our schools or are so poorly trained or they have been brought up in a culture of worklessness and entitlement that is disabling. These people need our help.
If you worship the great god of GDP above all else then immigration is almost certainly an unmitigated good. If you think the purpose of that GDP is to provide all of the people living here already with a decent standard of living it certainly isn't. Labour betrayed their most loyal supporters with their policies in the last government. Many of their leading politicians recognise that now and Southam Observer did so in clear terms yesterday or the day before.
I suspect some of Tim's comments are to wind up those who may be tempted to make comments that he can characterise as racist. But I also think that he simply refuses to see the consequences for the poor in our society of a policy that the last government was so wedded to.
'Cameron to miss No 10 St Andrew's Day party
The Prime Minister has invited a host of Scottish celebrities to the patron saints day's celebrations at No 10, where food will be prepared by Michelin starred chef Tom Kitchin to mark "the contribution Scotland makes to the United Kingdom".
Comedian Kevin Bridges and chef Nick Nairn are boycotting the event and Wimbledon champion Andy Murray is likely to be missing as he continues his post-season recovery in Miami. But now it has emerged that Mr Cameron himself is also due to miss the reception.
The celebration clashes with an informal working dinner with other EU leaders at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.'
http://tinyurl.com/q6t8mj6
A couple he prepared earlier (boil in the bag and microwaveable).
'"Together we're unbeatable. United we're unstoppable. The case is unquestionable. Head, heart, body and soul, we will fight for our United Kingdom every step of the way."
"I will fight with every fibre of my body to keep Scotland in the union"
Memo to Boris Johnson - there are 2 sorts of successful people. Clever ones who know they're lucky. And lucky ones who think they're clever.
In other non-news, the Lib Dem bloggers site has shut down yet again due to a lack of £12.50. http://www.libdemblogs.co.uk/
Excellent post but hang on a second. Lets say we hadn't let three million people into the country during the labour years.
Yes, more of our people might be employed today, and the disease of worklessness and dependency might be much less prevalent than it is. But we would face a different can of worms.
For example, wage inflation would be soaring because of gargantuan skill shortages in some industries. And that would limit our ability to grow very badly, because it would ramp up employer costs. Employers would be looking abroad.
As it is, the UK could grow 3 or 4% next year with virtually no wage inflation at all, something that would have been unheard of before free movement of people.
You can't get more clever than that.
As evidenced my excellent knowledge of Classical History and the regular lessons I have to teach Mr Dancer.
The Spanish have been our allies for centuries, prior to that they were allied with Napoleon.
Let us not forget, it was a Spanish-British alliance that defeated Napoleon.
Indeed it was thanks to the Napoloenic wars, The UK became the foresmost world power for the next century.
Pick a number between nought and three million
'After Alistair Carmichael's comprehensive drubbing in STV's independence debate last night, the Betfair market has shifted to:'
That makes a contrast with the drubbing the SNP received yesterday from Lamont on currency & Davidson on EU membership.
Aye, right.
Lamont couldn't find her arse with a flashlight and a map never mind find out what happened in Falkirk without little Ed's say so. Scottish tories like Ruth are still waiting on that elusive scottish tory surge that the idiots on here thought was on the way.