Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
I think he is missing the point that the Conservatives don't actually need or want an offer to change the country. The primary aim is to stop Labour from changing the country. The clue is in the name "Conservative". Other than Brexit, meandering along and basically keeping things as is with some tweaks on the margins is ok for a large chunk of the UK electorate.
PaulM - you are spot-on.
Curtice said the other day that Tory`s are doing well because of their simple "Get Brexit Done" message. Labour has failed to encapsulate their offering into a simple "lift elevator" pitch.
Curtice, BTW, also said that a 6% lead in popular vote translates into a 50% chance of a hung parliament.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Christ, the BJorg are going to be touching themselves inappropriately over this piece for the next few days, ain't they?
It starts relatively rationally, offering some reasonable insights from a friend, and ends in the absolutely loopy derangement of saying that Britain's position against the EU is directly and interchangeably equivalent to that needed to be taken against the Nazis.
Any insight on Bolsover? Can get Evens Lab and almost-Evens Tories.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
Matthew Parris has an article in the Speccie and it talks about Bolsover. he says Tory win and the main reason is Brexit but also because the voters think Skinner has overstayed his welcome and should have resigned by now. Parris apparently lives close by.
Parris was briefly MP for West Derbyshire
And from memory still lives there.
I also think Bolsover changing is highly likely - the area isn't what it once was and Skinner really should have retired this time around.
Any insight on Bolsover? Can get Evens Lab and almost-Evens Tories.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
Matthew Parris has an article in the Speccie and it talks about Bolsover. he says Tory win and the main reason is Brexit but also because the voters think Skinner has overstayed his welcome and should have resigned by now. Parris apparently lives close by.
Parris was briefly MP for West Derbyshire
Thanks for that - I`ll stick with my Tory bet I think. Parris can usually be relied upon. (He lives in North Derbyshire, by the way.)
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
I think he is missing the point that the Conservatives don't actually need or want an offer to change the country. The primary aim is to stop Labour from changing the country. The clue is in the name "Conservative". Other than Brexit, meandering along and basically keeping things as is with some tweaks on the margins is ok for a large chunk of the UK electorate.
I think that is exactly his point. The Tories do think that things are basically OK. He believes that they are wrong about this.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Morning all. Dan hodges this morning, rather than being an hysterical old queen, has some interesting tidbits. London going strongly labour (watch putney, chingford) but very heavy movement to Tory in the Midlands, yorks and humber and NW but finding it heavier going in the NE, which is worth bearing in mind for those Sunderland type bets......
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Priti Patel says hi.
Jacob Rees Mogg also waving his hands furiously from wherever he has been hidden away. Liz Truss would wave, too, if she knew how to.
If we are including attending cabinet like JRM I will raise the Raabs, Patels and JRMs with an Esther McVey. Top Trump played.
Re MORI, my understanding is that these ratings have correctly predicted the gap in the last several elections, I recall having a discussion on here about it but I am afraid I can’t remember with whom.
Anyway, we will see if that user’s conclusions pan out or not.
From a personal standpoint, I’m going to be very depressed waking up to a Boris Johnson majority Government - if it indeed happens.
Might have been me. Mori's positive leader ratings are the most accurate predictor and suggest a Tory lead of 6.5pp. The model is estimated using govt Vs oppo not Tory Vs Lab. It tends to underestimate the Tories' lead by 0.8pp (interestingly, the Tories outperformed the model by 0.7-0.8pp in 2015 and 2017, ie was bang on controlling for this effect, even out of sample). The model error has a standard deviation of 2.3pp. In 10 observations there are two misses of 4-4.5% (1979 and 1992), both in the Tories' favour. That would put us at 10-11pp, in line with the polls. So if the polls are right that would be about a 20% chance event based on history. There is no evidence that the polls add any predictive power, controlling for leader positive favorability. The Mori final poll error has a standard deviation of 5.1pp. Posted for information only, DYOR.
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
"Boris is what you get if you sent Trump to Eton." --Jess Rodham Phillips.
Thats just laziness. Boris is not good by any means, but he is bad in different ways to Trump and over indulging in the comparison is just silly pandering for those who get a hate erection about Trump. We can have an awful blond leader without him being Trump, and it makes it harder to counter him to pretend he is Trump.
Interesting thing about that Panelbase Scotland poll that was out.
In my model, on high turnout (71%) SLab hold onto all but one of their seats, Cons only lose 1. Lib Dems retain all but gain nothing. So the SNP only get to 37.
On low turnout (64%) Lab still manage to retain East Lothian as well as Ed South but Cons hold everything. SNP get to 40 seats.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Priti Patel says hi.
Jacob Rees Mogg also waving his hands furiously from wherever he has been hidden away. Liz Truss would wave, too, if she knew how to.
If we are including attending cabinet like JRM I will raise the Raabs, Patels and JRMs with an Esther McVey. Top Trump played.
Jokers are wild, so I raise you a Mark Francois - the equivalent of the nuclear option (and I am referring to his complexion).
At the start of the campaign I thought we'd be heading for a situation now something like Con 40%, Lab 28%, LD 20%. I didn't expect the LDs to make so many unforced errors. Con and Lab have both done about 4% better, and the LDs about 8% worse.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
They have 3 months to find a job if they do that. Then Britain can kick them out.
For reasons completely inexplicable to me the Conservatives have never implemented that but instead whip up hatred of foreigners by complaining about how they can come here completely unrestricted.
There is a restriction, plenty of other EU countries use it.
Re Corbyn in Bristol, I will be interested to see if any of Labour's candidates turn up to stand with him. Perhaps Darren Jones might be hoping that the dear leader stays away from Bristol NW. A Corbyn visit might not help him hold the seat.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
Why do you think that the feckless young - particularly students - will be more inclined to get out and vote than the pensioners? Moreover it is Labour who are relying heavily on the GOTV campaign on the day for their support.
The impact will be different between north and south because of the storm timing (as I said earlier). Those most likely to vote during the day (as opposed to early or after tea) will be less affected in the south when the weather will be clear. So storm timing in the south definitely more likely to affect older voters. Makes no difference in the north where it is filthy all day.
During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
UKElect's constituency forecasts are interesting, to put it mildly. Hull East going to the Conservatives, and Putney a Labour gain. Wolverhampton South East is projected to be a Tory gain.
I agree that UKElects forecasts are a little eyebrow-raising.
Andy_JS: do you have a view about Bolsover?
Very close. I don't think it'll be an easy Tory gain.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
They have 3 months to find a job if they do that. Then Britain can kick them out.
For reasons completely inexplicable to me the Conservatives have never implemented that but instead whip up hatred of foreigners by complaining about how they can come here completely unrestricted.
There is a restriction, plenty of other EU countries use it.
Yeah I'm sure you'd have been happy to have a campaign suggesting we kick out people who've already come here not control migration going forwards.
I have no qualms with anyone coming here but they should be completely self sufficient. If someone wants to come here and get a minimum wage job then as far as I'm concerned good luck to them but they shouldn't get any tax credits, housing benefits etc and should pay towards the NHS.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
I live in Spain - speak moderately good Spanish and mix with the locals. As Manuel would say you really "know nothing". There may be some Brits abroad like that as there are the equivalent in parts of the UK - the latter of which I presume you condemn also - Bengalis in Tower Hamlets, Hindus in Southall.......
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
There are some very interesting combo offers on Skybet, well-hidden. These are the ones that caught my eye:
Conservative Combo: 22/1 Conservatives to win all of Ashfield, Banff & Buchan, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Pudsey, St. Ives & Stoke Central. This is great value, it really is. Statisticians amongst us may disagree, but the Conservatives are "YouGov MRP" likely to take all of these seats at present *except* Stoke-on-Trent Central which is a toss-up, and Portsmouth South, which leans Labour.
If that's wrong, and Labour tanks on election day, you get a smashing return here.
Labour Combo: 10/3 Labour to win all of Cambridge, Canterbury, Cardiff North & Lincoln. At present, I'd say Labour are favourite (YouGov MRP) to take all of these. If you think Corbyn will hold onto his core demographic in Uni places regardless, this looks good.
LD Combo: 10/3 LD to win all of Cheltenham, Lewes, St Albans & Winchester. This is probably my least favourite bet, but if the LDs do grasp all of their key targets this should pay off. I've only put a few quid on.
Mixed Combo: 7/1 for Conservatives Lincoln, Derby North, Dewsbury, Wakefield & Wrexham, SNP Stirling & LDs Richmond Park. This also looks good. The only ones I'd be nervous about would be the Tories swiping Lincoln and the SNP Stirling. But, if they do, a tidy return.
Expect to lose these (everything has to go right) but there's some great value if you get lucky. And I think Skybet have mispriced the Tory combo at 22/1. Should be 8/1 or similar.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Actually I despise Brits who move abroad and make no attempt to learn the local language.
One thing immigrants need to do is to learn English (or Welsh). If you are an economic migrant you should ideally have learnt the language before you get here. Having said that, finding courses to teach you more than a basic level of English is difficult.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
I hope you're going to be around for many years to come BGNW.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
I hope you're going to be around for many years to come BGNW.
Thank you and I intend to keep on taking the pills
There seems to be a constant campaign against Swinson for doing nothing more than express a reasonable position. Why should she be forced to support either Corbyn or Johnson who are both universally hated?
I am one of those Tory Remainers who along with my son wondering where to vote. In the end we will split Lib Dem / Green as just cant stand the attitude of the present Tories. Wonder how many others like me, who are going to decide this week what to do?
Very similar in our household: a mixture of Lib Dem and Green votes. But we’re all waiting until Thursday to finally cast our votes despite having postal votes.
Boris with a majority - yuck. McDonnell in charge of Labour - yuck again. What a bleak future.
If you had been asked to take part in a Westminster VI poll in the last few weeks, would you have answered "don't know"?
There are some very interesting combo offers on Skybet, well-hidden. These are the ones that caught my eye:
Conservative Combo: 22/1 Conservatives to win all of Ashfield, Banff & Buchan, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Pudsey, St. Ives & Stoke Central. This is great value, it really is. Statisticians amongst us may disagree, but the Conservatives are "YouGov MRP" likely to take all of these seats at present *except* Stoke-on-Trent Central which is a toss-up, and Portsmouth South, which leans Labour.
If that's wrong, and Labour tanks on election day, you get a smashing return here.
Labour Combo: 10/3 Labour to win all of Cambridge, Canterbury, Cardiff North & Lincoln. At present, I'd say Labour are favourite (YouGov MRP) to take all of these. If you think Corbyn will hold onto his core demographic in Uni places regardless, this looks good.
LD Combo: 10/3 LD to win all of Cheltenham, Lewes, St Albans & Winchester. This is probably my least favourite bet, but if the LDs do grasp all of their key targets this should pay off. I've only put a few quid on.
Mixed Combo: 7/1 for Conservatives Lincoln, Derby North, Dewsbury, Wakefield & Wrexham, SNP Stirling & LDs Richmond Park. This also looks good. The only ones I'd be nervous about would be the Tories swiping Lincoln and the SNP Stirling. But, if they do, a tidy return.
Expect to lose these (everything has to go right) but there's some great value if you get lucky. And I think Skybet have mispriced the Tory combo at 22/1. Should be 8/1 or similar.
Those are fantastic tips, thanks. 22/1 is great value on the first one I agree, although Portsmouth South is the one the Tories will find most difficult to win. Lincoln is slightly more likely to go Tory in my opinion, despite what the MRP said.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
I live in Spain - speak moderately good Spanish and mix with the locals. As Manuel would say you really "know nothing". There may be some Brits abroad like that as there are the equivalent in parts of the UK - the latter of which I presume you condemn also - Bengalis in Tower Hamlets, Hindus in Southall.......
Felix, it's a bit silly pretending there are not a large number of UK ex-pats in Spain that have next to no knowledge of Spanish, who mix almost exclusively with other ex-pats and who have absolutely no interest in Spain beyond the weather. Not all are like that, of course, but many are. It stands to reason - they have not gone to build new lives in Spain as young people - as most EU immigrants into the UK do - but to retire there.
If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.
Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also
(i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.
(ii) The DUP who really are as thick as every one says they are, The DUP were in -- electorally speaking -- the kind of sweet spot that comes once a century for a small party.
(iiI) The Remainers (Grieve, Balls, Cooper, Benn) who misjudged strategy massively. They will now have a Parliament in which Leave is a majority and consequently a much harder Brexit. All this stuff about "Johnson hanging in the wind" and "broken his word over do or die". I think that caused a visceral reaction in the country, who saw MPs playing stupid games.
(iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.
The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.
The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.
If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
It WILL be so because SouthamObsever has decreed it so.
Meanwhile I suspect that supply, demand and their dynamic impact on productivity has their fingers in their ears when you say that.
I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.
And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.
Jo Swinson on Today: we won't put Corbyn into Downing Street.
The problem is unless Sturgeon rules it out it remains a possibility.
I remain to be convinced by what JS means by “not putting Corbyn (or Johnson) in Downing Street. Firstly, such pre-election campaigns tend to dissolve like candy floss in a puddle. Secondly, what’s the alternative for a small party? You either (at least) acquiesce in the formation of a government or you go straight back to the polls - and in this case, presumably a no deal Brexit on Jan 31 as a result.
I guess the reality is that we’re heading for a Boris win (though I don’t buy the larger predictions of his majority). If not, it’ll be a fascinating/troubled time. For starters, where does Boris go for extra votes if he’s short? DUP and bin his deal or LDs and have a referendum? Either of those and he’s toast. I’m not even sure he’d get any Lab leavers through the lobby so immediately after an election.
I think Jo has been careful not to rule out coalition, just coalition with the current Lab or Con leaders. Under alternate leadership she may. It is hard to see that happen quickly, but if there was a change in leadership and policy then Confidence and Supply is not out of the question. Neither Lab nor Con has a very nimble mechanism to replace the leader though.
I do not see any carefulness, just a big headed numpty making a right hash of a great opportunity. If she had not imagined herself as PM and set out some decent policies they could have had a chance, but her stupid posturing that she was the Messiah blew it all up and the LD's will be a minority party yet again.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
It WILL be so because SouthamObsever has decreed it so.
Meanwhile I suspect that supply, demand and their dynamic impact on productivity has their fingers in their ears when you say that.
Its absolutely certain that restricting supply will see increase wages, as we have seen the current tightening in the labour market correlates with above inflation increases.
The argument is that this isnt necessarily a good thing.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
Wage rises for the low paid have been happening after the Brexit vote.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
It WILL be so because SouthamObsever has decreed it so.
Meanwhile I suspect that supply, demand and their dynamic impact on productivity has their fingers in their ears when you say that.
I do hope nothing tragic has happened to Mr Royale before passing on his tip to us.
It could result in one of those awkward conversations. "I hate to intrude on you at this very difficult time, Mrs Royale, but if you could look among his notes..."
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
Wage rises for the low paid have been happening after the Brexit vote.
I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.
And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.
Give me strength.
I think we have to hope that Johnson's words were indeed taken out of context. But talking about immigrants as "they" when they are, in fact, "we" is all part of the game these days. The automatic assumption is that immigrants are a burden to be tolerated at best, not our family members, our friends and our work colleagues. It is all very unfortunate.
During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
Alan Clark's diaries contain pointed references to the "clipped cock brigade" but that was before antisemitism was bad.
if labour had voted through Boris deal and acted in the national interest , they could have watched the tories struggle on with no majority until at least next year , and would possibly have denied Boris his majority , but their silly political games in parliament has backfired on them spectacularly. They will have to suck it up , the public won’t forget their shenanigans easily
So even with a 10% lead in the polls, Johnson cannot resist reverting to type with dog whistle politics.
Will please his fanboys on here but what a c*nt he is! Just a warning that immigrants of all descents need to be wary going forward.
Bojo himself is a product or by product of immigrants of Turkish descent! He reminds me of Nicolas Sarkozy, a French national born of Hungarian immigrants. Who ranted against other immigrants and the gold mine for all racists 'The letter box'. I think its just survival instincts.They feel insecure, that they might be considerd as immigrants themselves. So to survive and in Bojo's case to thrive, they go over the top and attack other immigrants. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nicolas-sarkozy-president-immigrants-should-speak-french-attacks-medieval-burkini-a7318016.html
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Morning all. Dan hodges this morning, rather than being an hysterical old queen, has some interesting tidbits. London going strongly labour (watch putney, chingford) but very heavy movement to Tory in the Midlands, yorks and humber and NW but finding it heavier going in the NE, which is worth bearing in mind for those Sunderland type bets......
On the subject of Sunderland Central - isn't this a student seat? Might therefore expect less of a Lab>Con swing than elsewhere.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
More state aid for farmers, more tariffs, "buy British", unfunded tax cuts etc
That is not sustainable in the US. let alone the UK!
The american deficit has ballooned but interest rates have moved down.
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
And that's likely to be the same issue here.
While Boris should be building 40 hospitals, roads and infrastructure while holding the painful discussions that go alongside that - tax cuts are quicker.
This sort of dangerous non-Thatcherite talk will not go down well among the faithful here, you know.
Is that the 40 which is really 6 with an additional 34 imaginary ones added for good measure.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
I think he is missing the point that the Conservatives don't actually need or want an offer to change the country. The primary aim is to stop Labour from changing the country. The clue is in the name "Conservative". Other than Brexit, meandering along and basically keeping things as is with some tweaks on the margins is ok for a large chunk of the UK electorate.
They’re electing the wrong bloody party then. Brexit is going to mean one hell of a change for Britain.
I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.
And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.
Give me strength.
I think we have to hope that Johnson's words were indeed taken out of context. But talking about immigrants as "they" when they are, in fact, "we" is all part of the game these days. The automatic assumption is that immigrants are a burden to be tolerated at best, not our family members, our friends and our work colleagues. It is all very unfortunate.
Strange because some of Johnson's own ancestors are from Turkey, and he was married to a woman with an Indian mother for many years, with whom he has 4 children.
So even with a 10% lead in the polls, Johnson cannot resist reverting to type with dog whistle politics.
Will please his fanboys on here but what a c*nt he is! Just a warning that immigrants of all descents need to be wary going forward.
It really is remarkable how people on here continue to big him up when he comes out with things like this, shitting all over anyone with immigrants in their heritage, telling them how dare your parents or grandparents dream of a better life, come here, work hard and put down roots. As somebody whose kids' grandparents arrived here in the 1970s and have done far more to contribute to this country than all the knuckle dragging racists who carp on about immigrants: fuck you Boris Johnson.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
I live in Spain - speak moderately good Spanish and mix with the locals. As Manuel would say you really "know nothing". There may be some Brits abroad like that as there are the equivalent in parts of the UK - the latter of which I presume you condemn also - Bengalis in Tower Hamlets, Hindus in Southall.......
I don’t condemn anyone, I just think Johnson is a massive hypocrite
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Morning all. Dan hodges this morning, rather than being an hysterical old queen, has some interesting tidbits. London going strongly labour (watch putney, chingford) but very heavy movement to Tory in the Midlands, yorks and humber and NW but finding it heavier going in the NE, which is worth bearing in mind for those Sunderland type bets......
On the subject of Sunderland Central - isn't this a student seat? Might therefore expect less of a Lab>Con swing than elsewhere.
During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Actually I despise Brits who move abroad and make no attempt to learn the local language.
One thing immigrants need to do is to learn English (or Welsh). If you are an economic migrant you should ideally have learnt the language before you get here. Having said that, finding courses to teach you more than a basic level of English is difficult.
I find your last remark surprising. Many British cities have English (as fL) schools, and they cater very much to overseas pupils and students who are well past the "ordering a meal/meeting someone for the first time" English. Most universities offer such a service for the lucrative overseas students and are often open to non-students as well.
I agree with you about learning the language when moving overseas. The key thing is making a genuine effort to learn the language and improve. An immigrant grandmother who spends much of her time looking after the grandkids will find it much harder to learn the local language than a 19 year old who is working, but an attempt to learn is to be respected.
I am not intrinsically good at learning languages, but I was determined to get to a good level of German, good enough to teach in German at uni. A crucial point for me was to insist that conversations are held in German, even if the other speaker can speak better English than my German.
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
No it's not. The context which you are for obvious reasons so keen to ignore, was that unskilled labour has been able to move to the UK with no job offer, just as is possible within your own country. The new system would mean unskilled immigration only with a job offer and subject to national needs assessment.
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Those hoping that reductions in EU immigration will lead to a rise in their wages will be among the many to be left disappointed by Brexit.
Wage rises for the low paid have been happening after the Brexit vote.
If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.
Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also
(i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.
(iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.
The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.
The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.
If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.
Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.
He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.
That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
Will Johnson fight another election after this one? Probably not IMO.
I don’t think he will unless he looks like he will win it. Assuming he wins a majority on Thursday If he stands down before the vote he’ll be able to say he won two London mayorals and a GE and wasn’t defeated.
Bit late to the party but yes.
If things go south (and they certainly seem on course to do so) I imagine he will stand down before 2024 with his 'wins' intact. If, as seems likely, he gets more than 336 seats on Thursday, it will be the highest Conservative seat total sine 1987. Better than Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May ever managed. He'll ride off into the sunset with his 'reputation' intact and a 'winner'.
Of course, looking at the other side, if this is Labour's 1983 part 2, and the Conservative majority is big enough, we could be looking at it being well into the 2030s before the Blues are removed from office. Imagine that! Over twenty years of Conservatives in government. Who on here, in June 2010, imagined that the Conservatives could be in government until 2034? Most people had the 2010 election to be the one to 'lose' as the economic shock would cost them the next election. No one saw the Conservatives as still being in power till the 2020s or even 2030s. Some didn't think it'd last a year.
Best bet of the day is arbitrage on Southport. Conservatives at 2/5 with Betway, Labour at 5/1 with various companies. Assuming you rule out the LDs here (as the constituency poll showed) it is free money with the only issue being able to get enough on (although you can also get 1/3 about the Conservatives from many companies).
I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.
And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.
Give me strength.
I think we have to hope that Johnson's words were indeed taken out of context. But talking about immigrants as "they" when they are, in fact, "we" is all part of the game these days. The automatic assumption is that immigrants are a burden to be tolerated at best, not our family members, our friends and our work colleagues. It is all very unfortunate.
Strange because some of Johnson's own ancestors are from Turkey, and he was married to a woman with an Indian mother for many years, with whom he has 4 children.
If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.
Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also
(i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.
(iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.
The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.
The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.
If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.
Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.
He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.
That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
I don't think we will extend transition but rather transition into a different form of transition. Once the outline of a deal is agreed we can transition into that deal before the Walloons have agreed.
Comments
This stuff isn't hard and it's done perfectly fine around the rest of the world, without any cries of "despicable". It's common sense. And it's the surest way of lifting the real wages of C2DEs that Corbynista claim to care so much about it. But anyway, no minds being changed 72 hours before polling opens.
Curtice said the other day that Tory`s are doing well because of their simple "Get Brexit Done" message. Labour has failed to encapsulate their offering into a simple "lift elevator" pitch.
Curtice, BTW, also said that a 6% lead in popular vote translates into a 50% chance of a hung parliament.
I also think Bolsover changing is highly likely - the area isn't what it once was and Skinner really should have retired this time around.
Can't see article due to paywall.
Dan hodges this morning, rather than being an hysterical old queen, has some interesting tidbits. London going strongly labour (watch putney, chingford) but very heavy movement to Tory in the Midlands, yorks and humber and NW but finding it heavier going in the NE, which is worth bearing in mind for those Sunderland type bets......
Oh....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7766617/Dominatrix-Labour-councillor-suspended-anti-Semitic-slur.html
The model error has a standard deviation of 2.3pp. In 10 observations there are two misses of 4-4.5% (1979 and 1992), both in the Tories' favour. That would put us at 10-11pp, in line with the polls. So if the polls are right that would be about a 20% chance event based on history.
There is no evidence that the polls add any predictive power, controlling for leader positive favorability. The Mori final poll error has a standard deviation of 5.1pp.
Posted for information only, DYOR.
In my model, on high turnout (71%) SLab hold onto all but one of their seats, Cons only lose 1. Lib Dems retain all but gain nothing. So the SNP only get to 37.
On low turnout (64%) Lab still manage to retain East Lothian as well as Ed South but Cons hold everything. SNP get to 40 seats.
For reasons completely inexplicable to me the Conservatives have never implemented that but instead whip up hatred of foreigners by complaining about how they can come here completely unrestricted.
There is a restriction, plenty of other EU countries use it.
I have no qualms with anyone coming here but they should be completely self sufficient. If someone wants to come here and get a minimum wage job then as far as I'm concerned good luck to them but they shouldn't get any tax credits, housing benefits etc and should pay towards the NHS.
I do hope nothing tragic has happened to Mr Royale before passing on his tip to us.
There are some very interesting combo offers on Skybet, well-hidden. These are the ones that caught my eye:
Conservative Combo: 22/1 Conservatives to win all of Ashfield, Banff & Buchan, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Pudsey, St. Ives & Stoke Central. This is great value, it really is. Statisticians amongst us may disagree, but the Conservatives are "YouGov MRP" likely to take all of these seats at present *except* Stoke-on-Trent Central which is a toss-up, and Portsmouth South, which leans Labour.
If that's wrong, and Labour tanks on election day, you get a smashing return here.
Labour Combo: 10/3 Labour to win all of Cambridge, Canterbury, Cardiff North & Lincoln. At present, I'd say Labour are favourite (YouGov MRP) to take all of these. If you think Corbyn will hold onto his core demographic in Uni places regardless, this looks good.
LD Combo: 10/3 LD to win all of Cheltenham, Lewes, St Albans & Winchester. This is probably my least favourite bet, but if the LDs do grasp all of their key targets this should pay off. I've only put a few quid on.
Mixed Combo: 7/1 for Conservatives Lincoln, Derby North, Dewsbury, Wakefield & Wrexham, SNP Stirling & LDs Richmond Park. This also looks good. The only ones I'd be nervous about would be the Tories swiping Lincoln and the SNP Stirling. But, if they do, a tidy return.
Expect to lose these (everything has to go right) but there's some great value if you get lucky. And I think Skybet have mispriced the Tory combo at 22/1. Should be 8/1 or similar.
One thing immigrants need to do is to learn English (or Welsh). If you are an economic migrant you should ideally have learnt the language before you get here. Having said that, finding courses to teach you more than a basic level of English is difficult.
https://twitter.com/novaramedia/status/1203960263227121665
So even with a 10% lead in the polls, Johnson cannot resist reverting to type with dog whistle politics.
Will please his fanboys on here but what a c*nt he is! Just a warning that immigrants of all descents need to be wary going forward.
https://twitter.com/dli_odoir/status/1203975889303875590?s=20
Meanwhile I suspect that supply, demand and their dynamic impact on productivity has their fingers in their ears when you say that.
And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.
Give me strength.
I'm shocked to the core! I think I might need a lie down with that news!
The argument is that this isnt necessarily a good thing.
Russia banned from all global sport for four years
Sadly, most of them couldn't find Rochdale on a map, and it doesn't have a branch of Pret.
Dear God, another fuck up from a Labour candidate.
I think its just survival instincts.They feel insecure, that they might be considerd as immigrants themselves. So to survive and in Bojo's case to thrive, they go over the top and attack other immigrants.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nicolas-sarkozy-president-immigrants-should-speak-french-attacks-medieval-burkini-a7318016.html
More coverage of that Scottish Labour candidate.
I agree with you about learning the language when moving overseas. The key thing is making a genuine effort to learn the language and improve. An immigrant grandmother who spends much of her time looking after the grandkids will find it much harder to learn the local language than a 19 year old who is working, but an attempt to learn is to be respected.
I am not intrinsically good at learning languages, but I was determined to get to a good level of German, good enough to teach in German at uni. A crucial point for me was to insist that conversations are held in German, even if the other speaker can speak better English than my German.
He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.
That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
If things go south (and they certainly seem on course to do so) I imagine he will stand down before 2024 with his 'wins' intact. If, as seems likely, he gets more than 336 seats on Thursday, it will be the highest Conservative seat total sine 1987. Better than Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May ever managed. He'll ride off into the sunset with his 'reputation' intact and a 'winner'.
Of course, looking at the other side, if this is Labour's 1983 part 2, and the Conservative majority is big enough, we could be looking at it being well into the 2030s before the Blues are removed from office. Imagine that! Over twenty years of Conservatives in government. Who on here, in June 2010, imagined that the Conservatives could be in government until 2034? Most people had the 2010 election to be the one to 'lose' as the economic shock would cost them the next election. No one saw the Conservatives as still being in power till the 2020s or even 2030s. Some didn't think it'd last a year.
Strange times the 2010s. Strange times.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/whodoyouthinkyouare/past-stories/boris-how-we-did-it_1.shtml
Chilling.