Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.
Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also
(i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.
(ii) The DUP who really are as thick as every one says they are, The DUP were in -- electorally speaking -- the kind of sweet spot that comes once a century for a small party.
(iiI) The Remainers (Grieve, Balls, Cooper, Benn) who misjudged strategy massively. They will now have a Parliament in which Leave is a majority and consequently a much harder Brexit. All this stuff about "Johnson hanging in the wind" and "broken his word over do or die". I think that caused a visceral reaction in the country, who saw MPs playing stupid games.
(iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.
The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.
The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.
If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
Given there were circa 80 in the ERG that would need a majority of >160.
That assumes all the Opposition sides with the ERG in any vote on BINO.
R4 this morning - the DUP are back in their comfort zone of being unhappy.
I wonder whether SF has any chance of becoming the NI party with most MPs? The last forecast I saw had them shooting at seven with the DUP potentially down to eight
If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.
Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also
(i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.
(ii) The DUP who really are as thick as every one says they are, The DUP were in -- electorally speaking -- the kind of sweet spot that comes once a century for a small party.
(iiI) The Remainers (Grieve, Balls, Cooper, Benn) who misjudged strategy massively. They will now have a Parliament in which Leave is a majority and consequently a much harder Brexit. All this stuff about "Johnson hanging in the wind" and "broken his word over do or die". I think that caused a visceral reaction in the country, who saw MPs playing stupid games.
(iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.
The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.
The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.
If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
Given there were circa 80 in the ERG that would need a majority of >160.
That assumes all the Opposition sides with the ERG in any vote on BINO.
It also assumes they are allowed to vote on it.
People do forget the horror which is the WAIB which attempts to make the future relationship with the EU an executive decision with no progress reports before hand. There are several other attempts to remove democratic accountability hidden there but I forget what they are. I don’t think he is going to go the BINO route I would expect a 50/50 chance he will go WTO claiming the EU are unreasonable.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
If, if, if. 15% vs none at all, not among all pensioners but among pensioners who didn't think they were so frail they had better get a postal vote anyway? Really?
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
One thing's for sure, at the moment reasonable centrism is not proving very, er... popular.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
"most"? There aren't enough PVs in total to achieve that.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
If, if, if. 15% vs none at all, not among all pensioners but among pensioners who didn't think they were so frail they had better get a postal vote anyway? Really?
Quite apart from postal voting, what about the car ownership differential between pensioners and the sub-25 gang? And historical tendency to vote? I'm not sure why some on here think some wet weather will reduce turnout among the old more than the young.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
Rain and wind is not going to deter pensioners from turning out (for those who don’t have a postal vote). Remember a huge chunk of that demographic are very mindful of what they see as their public duty to vote.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
The pensioners will vote. Come hell or high water.
Just as likely as your scenario is Twitter sees the polling, has a meltdown that a Tory Govt. is now inevitable and Da Yoof flounces off in a huff.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Some of your comments today are begging people to scroll back through your comment history.....
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
One thing's for sure, at the moment reasonable centrism is not proving very, er... popular.
We are being offered status quo centrism, we need radical centrism/pragmatism. Choosing policies because they work and will change peoples lives for the better instead of choosing policies by ideology (Labour) or opinion poll (Tories). Voters in the UK are probably too tribal for what Im suggesting to cut through either, but its hard to get excited about a status quo party when the status quo is clearly failing to deliver for large parts of the country.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
Rain and wind is not going to deter pensioners from turning out (for those who don’t have a postal vote). Remember a huge chunk of that demographic are very mindful of what they see as their public duty to vote.
The polling too affects morale. There has been much talk of Tory hubris.
I would have thought the morale-sapping huge poll leads (whether true or not) must also be taking their toll.
Why head out to vote in the wind and the rain for a candidate who looks as though he or she will lose anyhow?
Well we’ll find out on polling day if the MORI leadership figures are no longer a good judge of the actual lead. My understanding is they currently suggest a six point lead, so if it ends up being 10+ points, they can no longer be relied on.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
"most"? There aren't enough PVs in total to achieve that.
When I assisted the party at elections we had a fleet of cars that ferried the pensioners to the polling stations throughout the day. I expect the same is true today
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
More state aid for farmers, more tariffs, "buy British", unfunded tax cuts etc
That is not sustainable in the US. let alone the UK!
The american deficit has ballooned but interest rates have moved down.
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
Well we’ll find out on polling day if the MORI leadership figures are no longer a good judge of the actual lead. My understanding is they currently suggest a six point lead, so if it ends up being 10+ points, they can no longer be relied on.
I don't think you can map leaders rating so precisely into a lead.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
He is for whatever will get him most votes regardless of whether it is good or bad for the country. He is not on the right, on the left or the centre, he is a blank canvas in it for himself. No one knows where he will lead us. Maybe it will work out, maybe it wont, maybe left, maybe right.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
This is the first election since polling began that a winter storm is forecast for election day. We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
More state aid for farmers, more tariffs, "buy British", unfunded tax cuts etc
That is not sustainable in the US. let alone the UK!
The american deficit has ballooned but interest rates have moved down.
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
And that's likely to be the same issue here.
While Boris should be building 40 hospitals, roads and infrastructure while holding the painful discussions that go alongside that - tax cuts are quicker.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
He is for whatever will get him most votes regardless of whether it is good or bad for the country. He is not on the right, on the left or the centre, he is a blank canvas in it for himself. No one knows where he will lead us. Maybe it will work out, maybe it wont, maybe left, maybe right.
A very clear-eyed assessment of Boris.
Tbf, I think the same is true of Tony Blair.
It can be electorally successful for a long time, over a decade.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Some of your comments today are begging people to scroll back through your comment history.....
Please do. I have no problem as Boris has a deal and he is a liberal conservative like myself
I fell out with Boris as you well know when he sacked the 21 conservative mps but on his re-instatement of most of them I rejoined the party
If he achieves a majority he will fulfil the democratic vote to leave, which I did not vote for, but which I support as I support democracy
Unlike the Lib Dems telling 17.4 million they will just revoke their decision.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
Rain and wind is not going to deter pensioners from turning out (for those who don’t have a postal vote). Remember a huge chunk of that demographic are very mindful of what they see as their public duty to vote.
The polling too affects morale. There has been much talk of Tory hubris.
I would have thought the morale-sapping huge poll leads (whether true or not) must also be taking their toll.
Why head out to vote in the wind and the rain for a candidate who looks as though he or she will lose anyhow?
Well we’ll find out on polling day if the MORI leadership figures are no longer a good judge of the actual lead. My understanding is they currently suggest a six point lead, so if it ends up being 10+ points, they can no longer be relied on.
That doesn't really map, it points to a Conservative win but not a lot more beyond that.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
More state aid for farmers, more tariffs, "buy British", unfunded tax cuts etc
That is not sustainable in the US. let alone the UK!
The american deficit has ballooned but interest rates have moved down.
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
And that's likely to be the same issue here.
While Boris should be building 40 hospitals, roads and infrastructure while holding the painful discussions that go alongside that - tax cuts are quicker.
This sort of dangerous non-Thatcherite talk will not go down well among the faithful here, you know.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
This is the first election since polling began that a winter storm is forecast for election day. We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
More state aid for farmers, more tariffs, "buy British", unfunded tax cuts etc
That is not sustainable in the US. let alone the UK!
The american deficit has ballooned but interest rates have moved down.
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
And that's likely to be the same issue here.
While Boris should be building 40 hospitals, roads and infrastructure while holding the painful discussions that go alongside that - tax cuts are quicker.
At the ends of the Laffer Curve the tax rate does not impact the economy in a positive way.
If taxes are too low it reduces public investment more than it boosts private investment. If they are too high it reduces private investment more than it boosts public investmement.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
This is the first election since polling began that a winter storm is forecast for election day. We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
This is the first election since polling began that a winter storm is forecast for election day. We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
My prediction: no impact on turnout.
That's also a possibility, but no one can know for sure.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
As an aside, I just watched 63 Up. (That series is extraordinary.)
Neil Hughes - as in formerly homeless and struggling with mental illness Neil Hughes - is the LibDem candidate in Workington.
For the record, I think it is unlikely he will win this time around. But if anyone wants to bet on him, I'm prepared to give a good price.
I remember seeing him on some of the other Up programmes. He was a councillor in Hackney at one time IIRC. Maybe there'll be a vacancy for the LD candidacy in Westmorland before long.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Have you seen his cabinet?
The Tory understanding of One Nation Conservative now stretches to "Britannia Unchained" and Dominic Cummings' dreams.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
As he has not won the election yet obviously I have not seen his new cabinet
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
As he has not won the election yet obviously I have not seen his new cabinet
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
But its a false equivalence. The scale is completely different. The Conservatives is a bit wishful thinking, much of Labour's plan is utter madness presented as funded by an extra £8 a week for people over £80,000. Complete nonsense. The plans are supposed to be funded on corporation based tax increases which will melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August. It does not even stand up to the most superficial scrutiny.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has form in this type of area.
I am forever outraged that people want to come and build their lives in the UK, contribute to its well-being and lay down roots here. It is despicable. Why can't they be more like British ex-pats who, of course, are so much better in every way!
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly.
Sadly I could see One Nation Conservatism being redefined as a nationalistic platform. One Nation against the foreigners type thing. I dont think it is likely but is a possibility given where we are at.
Any insight on Bolsover? Can get Evens Lab and almost-Evens Tories.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
I think (and have thought throughout the campaign) that the Conservatives would get a majority of 100+. I still think that likely, and I think it is far from impossible that they beat Mrs Thatcher's 1983 majority of 144 seats.
But I also think much of this achievement will be because Jeremy Corbyn is Johnson's opponent.
The question for Labour will be, after a schallacking at the polls, what next? They'll still have 150 or more MPs, and there must be some talent in there.
The question the LibDems will have is, given how piss poor Corbyn is and how personally unpopular Johnson is, why didn't they do better? Sure, they'll increase their number of seats and their vote share (and one shouldn't forget how low they were laid in 2015). But they should have done better, and there's little doubt that Mrs Swinson is going to need to improve, if the LDs are to go much further.
I suspect that the 2019-2024 parliament will not be without its challenges for Boris Johnson. Once Brexit is (symbolically) done in seven weeks or so, then the UK has to make some awkward choices: how to manage immigration in a post transition period; how much to diverge from the EU; is the price of a US FTA worth paying; how not to disappoint voters who were promised the fruits of the magic money tree.
Johnson is lucky with his opponents this time. That may not happen again.
I would be surprised if the Tory majority exceeds 1983, 1987 is realistic, but far from certain. 1983 does provide my greatest worry, the fact is the Tory party has never exceeded 43% of the vote since the month I was born, October 1959.
If Labour really do that badly then so to a lesser extent will the LDs and SNP as they all all fish from the same pond.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has some form in this type of area.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Priti Patel is seriously more right-wing than Genghis Khan, let alone average Britain 2019.
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
But its a false equivalence. The scale is completely different. The Conservatives is a bit wishful thinking, much of Labour's plan is utter madness presented as funded by an extra £8 a week for people over £80,000. Complete nonsense. The plans are supposed to be funded on corporation based tax increases which will melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August. It does not even stand up to the most superficial scrutiny.
Whether or not what you say is true, at least you can scrutinise Labour's costs; how much have the Conservatives allowed for Brexit? Is Brexit cost-free now, contrary to what previous Conservative governments, of which Boris was part, told us?
On a wider economic point, both parties are turning their backs on the deficit hawks, on austerity and the household economics of Mrs Thatcher and George Osborne. Only the LibDems keep the faith.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has some form in this type of area.
I'm not actually sure what it means?
It used to be mean governing for the benefit of everyone in the country, not just those who voted for you.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
This is the first election since polling began that a winter storm is forecast for election day. We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
An interesting issue is the storm timing.Over the south of England, including London, the weather is clear during the morning, when some commuters will vote and, similarly, has cleared by the evening rush hour when those who did not vote in the morning will be likely to do so. The storm is during the day when those at home, especially the older voters who have not opted for a postal vote, would normally be most likely to go out. So for southern seats the impact may be disproportionately impacting on older demographics. The north and Scotland looks filthy until polls close.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly.
Sadly I could see One Nation Conservatism being redefined as a nationalistic platform. One Nation against the foreigners type thing. I dont think it is likely but is a possibility given where we are at.
It looks like a one nation Tory is someone I agree with so those who agree and like Patel will call her a one nation Tory. The original definition used to mean people like Heseltine. major and others who got thrown out for sticking to their principles and are now one nation traitors.
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
But its a false equivalence. The scale is completely different. The Conservatives is a bit wishful thinking, much of Labour's plan is utter madness presented as funded by an extra £8 a week for people over £80,000. Complete nonsense. The plans are supposed to be funded on corporation based tax increases which will melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August. It does not even stand up to the most superficial scrutiny.
On what basis do you think Corporation based taxes will 'melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August'?
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
"most"? There aren't enough PVs in total to achieve that.
When I assisted the party at elections we had a fleet of cars that ferried the pensioners to the polling stations throughout the day. I expect the same is true today
I shall be getting the worst of the mud scraped off the 4x4, ready for Thursday. One old boy I'm taking has terminal cancer, but wants to go to the polling station in person for the last time.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has some form in this type of area.
I'm not actually sure what it means?
It used to be mean governing for the benefit of everyone in the country, not just those who voted for you.
I mean the thing Boris is saying. What does "vows end to migrants ‘treating Britain as their own’" mean?
How exactly are E.U migrants treating Britain as their own? And what does he intend to do about it?
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
"most"? There aren't enough PVs in total to achieve that.
When I assisted the party at elections we had a fleet of cars that ferried the pensioners to the polling stations throughout the day. I expect the same is true today
I shall be getting the worst of the mud scraped off the 4x4, ready for Thursday. One old boy I'm taking has terminal cancer, but wants to go to the polling station in person for the last time.
Good for him - and you for taking him.
(PS I'm sneakily hoping he's duped you and is going to vote LD )
UKElect's constituency forecasts are interesting, to put it mildly. Hull East going to the Conservatives, and Putney a Labour gain. Wolverhampton South East is projected to be a Tory gain.
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
But its a false equivalence. The scale is completely different. The Conservatives is a bit wishful thinking, much of Labour's plan is utter madness presented as funded by an extra £8 a week for people over £80,000. Complete nonsense. The plans are supposed to be funded on corporation based tax increases which will melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August. It does not even stand up to the most superficial scrutiny.
Arctic see ice in August may not be the best metaphor. It more than recovers again from September through March reaching double the size of the start of August. Is that what we should expecting from Labours economic plan?
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
Bloody hell. Labour keep pointing to European countries owning utilities etc but how many are run like that? They are usually arms length companies, not committee run at local level.
Why did the IFS describe the Tory spending plans as "Not credible". It was preposterous to use the same language as for Labour looking at the bottom chart ?!?
The IFS were criticised by some economists for over reach with their criticism of Lab. They are a micro economic think tank and were making big macro calls on Lab's manifesto.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.
You hardly need to be an economic genius to know the economic plans of both main parties are complete bollocks. We all know it is just hot air from both sides.
But its a false equivalence. The scale is completely different. The Conservatives is a bit wishful thinking, much of Labour's plan is utter madness presented as funded by an extra £8 a week for people over £80,000. Complete nonsense. The plans are supposed to be funded on corporation based tax increases which will melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August. It does not even stand up to the most superficial scrutiny.
On what basis do you think Corporation based taxes will 'melt away quicker than an arctic ice shelf in August'?
Because if you take their “Inclusive Ownership Fund” as a disguised form of CT, that takes the U.K.’s CT to a global high. Add in the Bank Levy and for financial institutions one is looking at a CT rate of more than 50%. Those are tipping points and beyond.
Have a look at Dan Neidle (Clifford Chance) analysis on this. You may or may not agreed but there’s more thought there than the typical blowhard on the internet.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has some form in this type of area.
I'm not actually sure what it means?
It used to be mean governing for the benefit of everyone in the country, not just those who voted for you.
I mean the thing Boris is saying. What does "vows end to migrants ‘treating Britain as their own’" mean?
How exactly are E.U migrants treating Britain as their own? And what does he intend to do about it?
If this is the quote from Sophie Ridge then he's been cutoff not only mid sentence but mid-clause and it's out of context.
Re MORI, my understanding is that these ratings have correctly predicted the gap in the last several elections, I recall having a discussion on here about it but I am afraid I can’t remember with whom.
Anyway, we will see if that user’s conclusions pan out or not.
From a personal standpoint, I’m going to be very depressed waking up to a Boris Johnson majority Government - if it indeed happens.
Wish he could say that to Ali and Osman Kemel Bey. Sad, that in 2019, in order to gain votes you have to 'play to the gallery'. Is this what the public really want? If Boris is leading at 45% then he's doing well in this regard.
Interesting analysis. Does seem to support the theory that during election time the broadcast rules mean that Corbyn gets a fairer hearing and is able to put his points across better.
That may be a part of it but surely a far bigger part is that Corbyn is truly pathetic in the House of Commons and looks much better when he doesn't need to go near the place. He is relatively unusual in modern (possibly because he isn't) politicians in that he seems to actively like campaigning and meeting people. He comes across as a lot more normal when he does.
May wasn't much better in the HoC, the shine wore off her pretty quickly after the initial 'remind you of anyone' orgasm induced on here and other places. It may cone as a shock to mother of parliaments fanbois but I suspect house performances have shrinking value. A good twitter game might have more value feeding the media with the hooks to hang their narrative on.
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has some form in this type of area.
I'm not actually sure what it means?
It used to be mean governing for the benefit of everyone in the country, not just those who voted for you.
I mean the thing Boris is saying. What does "vows end to migrants ‘treating Britain as their own’" mean?
How exactly are E.U migrants treating Britain as their own? And what does he intend to do about it?
He means if you dont like immigrants vote for him. He doesnt intend to do anything about it apart from make speeches as we actually need migration for the economy and he knows it.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.
Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
Either way, it’s despicable.
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
"Boris is what you get if you sent Trump to Eton." --Jess Rodham Phillips.
Thats just laziness. Boris is not good by any means, but he is bad in different ways to Trump and over indulging in the comparison is just silly pandering for those who get a hate erection about Trump. We can have an awful blond leader without him being Trump, and it makes it harder to counter him to pretend he is Trump.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Priti Patel says hi.
Jacob Rees Mogg also waving his hands furiously from wherever he has been hidden away. Liz Truss would wave, too, if she knew how to.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
Why do you think that the feckless young - particularly students - will be more inclined to get out and vote than the pensioners? Moreover it is Labour who are relying heavily on the GOTV campaign on the day for their support.
Boris starts a marathon final tour of Labour Leave seats in Humberside and the North East at a fish market in Grimsby first thing this morning, which will culminate in Sunderland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932
The tour resembles Trump's whirlwind tour of rustbelt Democratic states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 election that led him to victory
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
Actually you could say that Boris is a right wing populist.
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris). Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
Apart from Brexit, Boris is a one nation conservative and he is not on the right
Have you seen his cabinet?
I wouldn't be surprised if some people in Johnson's circle are privately hoping that if they lose one seat it'll be Esher & Walton. Raab is the only cabinet member who comes across as seriously more right-wing than average.
Priti Patel says hi.
Jacob Rees Mogg also waving his hands furiously from wherever he has been hidden away. Liz Truss would wave, too, if she knew how to.
If we are including attending cabinet like JRM I will raise the Raabs, Patels and JRMs with an Esther McVey. Top Trump played.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Have had an update from DH on his doorstep opionion...
Any insight on Bolsover? Can get Evens Lab and almost-Evens Tories.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
Matthew Parris has an article in the Speccie and it talks about Bolsover. he says Tory win and the main reason is Brexit but also because the voters think Skinner has overstayed his welcome and should have resigned by now. Parris apparently lives close by.
Listening to the media this morning the narrative seems to have conceded the election for Boris and are moving into talking about the next GE in 2024. I really have no idea what will happen in 2024 and to be honest at my age why would I
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
Have had an update from DH on his doorstep opionion...
That article is an absolute disgrace . Amazing how so many Tory supporters in here are happy to give Johnson a free pass .
Immigrant bashing has been a national past time. Blame everything on those 'Foccking Foreigners' job done.Charlatans, like Bojo, are skilled in stirring the pot. Why do you think the Sun and the Daily Mail sell? I remember tens of articles written on 'NHS Medical Tourism' When in reality, enter any NHS hospital and your more likely to find patients who are British, mostly elderly. While staff, specially in deprived areas as in the North, will be foreign.
Why refer to the obnoxious Trump. Boris is not Trump and we do not need any comparison with him. See this
"Boris is what you get if you sent Trump to Eton." --Jess Rodham Phillips.
Thats just laziness. Boris is not good by any means, but he is bad in different ways to Trump and over indulging in the comparison is just silly pandering for those who get a hate erection about Trump. We can have an awful blond leader without him being Trump, and it makes it harder to counter him to pretend he is Trump.
I agree with kle4. Lazy comparison. Education could never elevate Trump the numbskull to a Boris level of intelligence.
Any insight on Bolsover? Can get Evens Lab and almost-Evens Tories.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
Matthew Parris has an article in the Speccie and it talks about Bolsover. he says Tory win and the main reason is Brexit but also because the voters think Skinner has overstayed his welcome and should have resigned by now. Parris apparently lives close by.
I see that Corbyn is holding a mass rally on College Green, Bristol, will he stay away from the marginal seat of Bristol NW?
Might make the effort to go and see if he has improved his public speaking. I heard him bang on about obscure trade unionists, and almost forgotten strike actions of the 1960s and 70s. It wasn't a speech reaching out to the undecided.
About the weather on election day. It's rain rain rain and strong winds, but no snow.
I do think there is a possibility that the election could be skewed by what appears to be the first winter storm on election day in modern times.
If that is the case then turnout will be down, perhaps a lot, and if it falls predominantly among old pensioners then the Conservatives would have a very big problem even if the polls give them a double digit lead.
If pensioner turnout is 15% lower than what the polls suggest, but younger cohorts are unaffected, then the Conservative lead would be cut by 6 points to the edge of Hung Parliament.
You do know most pensioners use a postal vote
"most"? There aren't enough PVs in total to achieve that.
When I assisted the party at elections we had a fleet of cars that ferried the pensioners to the polling stations throughout the day. I expect the same is true today
I shall be getting the worst of the mud scraped off the 4x4, ready for Thursday. One old boy I'm taking has terminal cancer, but wants to go to the polling station in person for the last time.
Good for you and him
I had an uncle who was terminal ill and when I asked how he was, he replied
Re MORI, my understanding is that these ratings have correctly predicted the gap in the last several elections, I recall having a discussion on here about it but I am afraid I can’t remember with whom.
Anyway, we will see if that user’s conclusions pan out or not.
From a personal standpoint, I’m going to be very depressed waking up to a Boris Johnson majority Government - if it indeed happens.
You best go see the Doc.. you are likely to be depressed for a decade or so as a de minimus.
UKElect's constituency forecasts are interesting, to put it mildly. Hull East going to the Conservatives, and Putney a Labour gain. Wolverhampton South East is projected to be a Tory gain.
I agree that UKElects forecasts are a little eyebrow-raising.
There seems to be a constant campaign against Swinson for doing nothing more than express a reasonable position. Why should she be forced to support either Corbyn or Johnson who are both universally hated?
I am one of those Tory Remainers who along with my son wondering where to vote. In the end we will split Lib Dem / Green as just cant stand the attitude of the present Tories. Wonder how many others like me, who are going to decide this week what to do?
Very similar in our household: a mixture of Lib Dem and Green votes. But we’re all waiting until Thursday to finally cast our votes despite having postal votes.
Boris with a majority - yuck. McDonnell in charge of Labour - yuck again. What a bleak future.
Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?
I think he is missing the point that the Conservatives don't actually need or want an offer to change the country. The primary aim is to stop Labour from changing the country. The clue is in the name "Conservative". Other than Brexit, meandering along and basically keeping things as is with some tweaks on the margins is ok for a large chunk of the UK electorate.
Comments
It's an interesting election in that you could say it's a left wing populist (Corbyn) vs a right wing populist (Boris).
Which populism is stronger than the other? We might find out.
I wonder whether SF has any chance of becoming the NI party with most MPs? The last forecast I saw had them shooting at seven with the DUP potentially down to eight
Just as likely as your scenario is Twitter sees the polling, has a meltdown that a Tory Govt. is now inevitable and Da Yoof flounces off in a huff.
I would have thought the morale-sapping huge poll leads (whether true or not) must also be taking their toll.
Why head out to vote in the wind and the rain for a candidate who looks as though he or she will lose anyhow?
The irony is that most in the economic sphere have said that Trump was too cautious in his reforms, and the FED too tight with money, due to lack of inflation and the still large output gap.
America could have borrowed trillions with low interest rates to fund any infrastructure or sound investment, instead it's funding tax cuts that have not boosted the economy.
We simply don't have anything to compare it's impact on turnout.
While Boris should be building 40 hospitals, roads and infrastructure while holding the painful discussions that go alongside that - tax cuts are quicker.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1203938699857317888?s=20
Tbf, I think the same is true of Tony Blair.
It can be electorally successful for a long time, over a decade.
I fell out with Boris as you well know when he sacked the 21 conservative mps but on his re-instatement of most of them I rejoined the party
If he achieves a majority he will fulfil the democratic vote to leave, which I did not vote for, but which I support as I support democracy
Unlike the Lib Dems telling 17.4 million they will just revoke their decision.
If taxes are too low it reduces public investment more than it boosts private investment.
If they are too high it reduces private investment more than it boosts public investmement.
A new one will be released today, so I expect it will be at 5pm too.
Details of the old poll, released on 25 nov can be found here
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-11-25/welsh-labour-increases-poll-lead-but-still-has-seats-at-risk-in-election/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/election-2019-johnson-vows-end-to-migrants-treating-britain-as-their-own-nczv7r97n
Conservative 36%
Labour 27%
Lib Dems 17%
From the campaign period:
Conservative 42%
Labour 31%
Lib Dems 14%
From this past week:
Conservative 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dems 12%
#GE2019
But then we always knew the last week will be ugly. The question would be whether Cummings continues this kind of rhetoric after a win - and he has form in this type of area.
I`m on the Tories but I am wondering whether Skinner will retain sufficient support to scrape home because electorate won`t want to deny him father-of-the-house status. It is a big leaver seat - but Skinner was a leaver.
On a wider economic point, both parties are turning their backs on the deficit hawks, on austerity and the household economics of Mrs Thatcher and George Osborne. Only the LibDems keep the faith.
--Jess Rodham Phillips.
The north and Scotland looks filthy until polls close.
Oh god - a fish pun this early in the day, really? Is that your sole response?
How exactly are E.U migrants treating Britain as their own? And what does he intend to do about it?
(PS I'm sneakily hoping he's duped you and is going to vote LD
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203960224178151425
Boris: the right man at the right plaice.....
Have a look at Dan Neidle (Clifford Chance) analysis on this. You may or may not agreed but there’s more thought there than the typical blowhard on the internet.
Anyway, we will see if that user’s conclusions pan out or not.
From a personal standpoint, I’m going to be very depressed waking up to a Boris Johnson majority Government - if it indeed happens.
If Boris is leading at 45% then he's doing well in this regard.
Last nights Survation poll may turn out to be the 2019 'David Herdson' moment
I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
I remember tens of articles written on 'NHS Medical Tourism' When in reality, enter any NHS hospital and your more likely to find patients who are British, mostly elderly. While staff, specially in deprived areas as in the North, will be foreign.
Might make the effort to go and see if he has improved his public speaking. I heard him bang on about obscure trade unionists, and almost forgotten strike actions of the 1960s and 70s. It wasn't a speech reaching out to the undecided.
I had an uncle who was terminal ill and when I asked how he was, he replied
'Why should a breathing man complain'
Words that have lived with me for decades
Andy_JS: do you have a view about Bolsover?
Boris with a majority - yuck. McDonnell in charge of Labour - yuck again. What a bleak future.