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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,278

    Jess Philips for leader? Please God no

    Agree,a very loud airhead.
    She has contributed precisely nothing in the last three years. Nothing.
    She has done good work on a Domestic Violence Bill which has been lost due to Johnson’s antics.

    What precisely have Rebecca L-B and Laura Pidcock achieved? Other than sucking up to their sponsors within the Labour leadership?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    melcf said:

    Why Republican women men vote Trump??Same principle, why Bjo, great grandson of Ali Kemel Bey calls some letter boxes?? Found an interesting quote
    --In her book Right Wing Women, the feminist Andrea Dworkin wrote that conservative women often conform to the dominant ideologies of the men around them as part of a subconscious survival strategy, hoping that their conservatism will spare them from male hatred and violence. It doesn’t work, she says. They suffer sexist oppression anyway. But the strategy continues. “Most women cannot afford, either materially or psychologically, to recognize that whatever burnt offerings of obedience they bring to beg protection will not appease the angry little gods around them.” Participating in racism does not exempt white women from sexism, as much as they might hope that it will. It merely corrodes their souls in the proce

    It always amazes me the special hatred left-wingers have for right-wing women.

    As for Andrea Dworkin's remarks, what a load of bollocks. Ann Coulter conforming 'to the dominant ideologies of the men around them as part of a subconscious survival strategy, hoping that their conservatism will spare them from male hatred and violence'. LMAO.
  • Church of England under pressure to publicly oppose Labour and Lib Dem plans to liberalise abortion laws

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/07/church-england-pressure-publicly-oppose-labour-lib-dem-plans/
  • Cyclefree said:

    Jess Philips for leader? Please God no

    Agree,a very loud airhead.
    She has contributed precisely nothing in the last three years. Nothing.
    She has done good work on a Domestic Violence Bill which has been lost due to Johnson’s antics.

    What precisely have Rebecca L-B and Laura Pidcock achieved? Other than sucking up to their sponsors within the Labour leadership?
    I don't support any of them. But fair enough on the Domestic Violence Bill, I had forgot that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    I have to say, while David has written an excellent thread as usual, what a depressing prospect for the country.

    Boundaries should automatically be updated after every GE, but there is more than a slight whiff of voter suppression to the Tory plans. Particularly so when one considers the removal of parliamentary and judicial restraints on the executive that are also planned. We do not have the balanced powers of a written Constitutional, and we have already seen the contempt that Johnson and Cummings have for our unwritten constitution.
    You've not read the Conservative manifesto on limiting access to, and reducing the power of, the courts?

    You may also have missed @Cyclefree's header, Protecting our Democracy
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/05/protecting-our-democracy/
    Having reread it, I am really proud of it. Am I allowed to say this? Well I have.

    Once again the polls are showing the undecideds breaking for Corbyn after yesterday's debate.

    Very interesting indeed, I would say.

    Too many
    Rory Stewart is doing one of his London speaks sessions tomorrow morning in Hampstead. I may go along and report back.

    Meanwhile the Xmas market is, as usual, full of overpriced crafts and the weather is surprisingly mild for December.

    Ridiculous post. Just because you have a particular dislike of some the "names" in the Tory Party does not mean they are all like that. Frankly I think less of you for suggesting this man does not belong in the Tories.
    There's quite a lot of politicians whose views or actions do not appear to align particularly well with the party they claim is central to their views or actions. That can be frustrating, as an outsider, but who are we to tell them they are wrong I guess - if it is so, they will come to see that in time, as even some people who have been in parties for decades did in the last parliament.
  • The man is back for those straw clutchers amongst us

    twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203305321277640705

    Given the dressing down he got from the YouGov bod the other day, I think we can say he spouts a lot of ill-informed stuff.

    One thing that really spikes his argument. The last debate that basically had the same outcome, small win for Boris, didn't result in any uptick for Labour.
    Link me to the YG thing?
  • Matt winning again...


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,978

    I kind of feel like this "mood music" stuff has all come out since the result.

    Granted, I wasn't here when this "mood music" was supposed to have happened but I was in a lot of similar places and I was laughed out of the room until the result came in. The Survation poll was widely ridiculed, as was YouGov MRP at the time, from what I recall. All sorts of utter nonsense thrown about that you seem some Labourites doing now, ironically.

    I have a similar gut feeling to 2017 - and that is why I backed Hung Parliament at 5/1. I stood by that decision until the result came in. I didn't have anything to set that off, I didn't use any metrics, etc. I just had a feeling. Maybe I got lucky, I'm sure that is exactly what happens.

    But what is similar, is people are already claiming victory with a week to go. A lot can happen, a lot can change.

    Re the Mori stuff, this is perhaps the most convincing thing I've seen this election that makes my gut feel right some how.

    I'm sure the clutching at straws meme will be along soon. But I don't intend to run away if I am wrong - and I hope most people know that.
    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.
    Having missed most of the campaign due to work and family commitments, looking around at the constituency markets and under/over markets last week there didn't seem to be a lot of obvious value anywhere.

    This time at the last election there were loads of very safe seats trading at 1/10 and 1/5, and 5,000 majority seats trading close to evens. None of those this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    Cookie said:

    Agree on PB being more pro-Tory than many other places - but there's nothing wrong with that. Most people are pleasant, you get the occasional nasty bully but they're quickly ignored.

    When I started posting, it was much more Labour leaning.
    As was the country as a whole!
    PB turns most people a little blue over time. But it can be fought!
  • nova said:



    The £350m was wrong. Due to the rebate, we pay approx £250m. The extra £100m is never paid, never returned, and effectively doesn't exist. We can't take control of it, or spend it on the NHS because we never pay it in the first place.

    Its actually about £290 million but your principle is spot on.
    Another Remainer here. I have to admit that if the bus had said £290M or £250M it would have had the same effect. Banging on about the bus is not an effective campaigning point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,042

    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    Great stuff.

    Do us a favour, though. It’s Hinds’s, not Hinds’. There is only one of him, thankfully.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892

    The man is back for those straw clutchers amongst us

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203305321277640705

    Honestly that guys could see a poll that says Con 55% Lab 20% and say "Good news for Johnson right? Well.. no"

    It's a bit sad really.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    IanB2 said:

    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    Great stuff.

    Do us a favour, though. It’s Hinds’s, not Hinds’. There is only one of him, thankfully.
    Hinds' is correct
  • kjohnw1 said:
    Clarkson is a good example of a Tory Remainer who's still voting Tory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Do you think Pidcock is likely to stand for Deputy Leader instead?

    I think it has to be Long Bailey or Pidcock for the leadership, I don't think both can run. Given that. I'd excpect Long Bailey to get the nod. Unless Corbyn contests any challenge against him. Then it would have to be the pair of them slugging it out to be the far left candidate for the deputy slot.
    Rebecca Long Bailey would be a truly dreadful choice as leader. She is rude, arrogant, lazy and not very bright.

    She would however be a considerably less awful choice than Pidcock.
    I particularly dislike people like Pidcock saying that they can never be friends with Tories. Prejudging people like that is evidence of a narrow and rigid mind, quite unsuited to persuading people not already on your side to vote for you. One of the things I admire about our own @NickPalmer is that he is prepared to give credit to people in other parties doing good work (eg Gove in Environment) and has personal friendships across the political divide.
    I absolutely endorse this. I find when people present their own pettiness and childishness in that way as a strength it really infuriates me. I know Tories who cannot stand others in their own party and get on great with Labour and LD figures on a personal level, and the same for Labour and Lib Dem figures. It's just pathetic to act like you cannot or should not be able to be friends with people because of politics. There may be some issues that if another supports would make closeness more difficult, but it's not black and white.

    It's why I cannot stand what is reported to be Skinner's approach to politics - the oldest baby in Parliament if his reputation is true.
  • argyllrs said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    Great stuff.

    Do us a favour, though. It’s Hinds’s, not Hinds’. There is only one of him, thankfully.
    Hinds' is correct
    Actually, I think both are valid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,216
    edited December 2019

    kjohnw1 said:
    Clarkson is a good example of a Tory Remainer who's still voting Tory.
    It is also a highly effective attack on Jezza.
  • https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1203310032944795654

    Corbyn seems to have exceeded expectations - but we did see this made no difference last time.

    Do we have any viewer figures yet?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    Cookie said:

    Agree on PB being more pro-Tory than many other places - but there's nothing wrong with that. Most people are pleasant, you get the occasional nasty bully but they're quickly ignored.

    When I started posting, it was much more Labour leaning.
    As was the country as a whole!

    My experience on this site over the last 10 years is that the centre of political gravity on it swings around a fair bit, and perhaps mirroring the levels of optimism in the parties (i.e. more of the most optimistic party, fewer of the more pessimistic party re future prospects).
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    TimT said:

    melcf said:

    Why Republican women men vote Trump??Same principle, why Bjo, great grandson of Ali Kemel Bey calls some letter boxes?? Found an interesting quote
    --In her book Right Wing Women, the feminist Andrea Dworkin wrote that conservative women often conform to the dominant ideologies of the men around them as part of a subconscious survival strategy, hoping that their conservatism will spare them from male hatred and violence. It doesn’t work, she says. They suffer sexist oppression anyway. But the strategy continues. “Most women cannot afford, either materially or psychologically, to recognize that whatever burnt offerings of obedience they bring to beg protection will not appease the angry little gods around them.” Participating in racism does not exempt white women from sexism, as much as they might hope that it will. It merely corrodes their souls in the proce

    It always amazes me the special hatred left-wingers have for right-wing women.

    As for Andrea Dworkin's remarks, what a load of bollocks. Ann Coulter conforming 'to the dominant ideologies of the men around them as part of a subconscious survival strategy, hoping that their conservatism will spare them from male hatred and violence'. LMAO.
    Also Priti Patel, Sajid Javid..et al. To survive and thrive , they can't be themselves. They have to adapt and sadly be more 'Popish than the Pope'.
    Someone has to say loudly, even without asking, the only religion pricatises at my home is Christianity. When no one even bothered to ask
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    nova said:

    OllyT said:

    melcf said:

    Looks like this is a pro Tories betting forum. Anything anti Tories seems to be discouraged.

    Boris Johnson is a lying, untrustworthy PM who will do anything for power.

    No-one will have a problem with that statement being posted (even if they disagree with it), variations of it are posted everyday. I didnt see your post that caused concern today but given your one from yesterday Id imagine the issue is not your being anti Tory.
    Quite. I refer regularly to Johnson as a liar and a charlatan. I have yet to encounter a dissenting voice.

    This is not because there are no Conservatives posting here.

    Next you will be telling us that Blair who you voted for was not a liar.

    Every politician lies during their careers, However I can't think of one who lies on the industrial scale Bozo does. He has a well earned and widespread reputation as a liar before he even reached office. Off hand I can't think of any senior politician that has been sacked a couple of times already for lying.
    I'm amazed that he gets away with saying things like his Queen's Speech was "blocked" by Parliament, which he's now mentioned numerous times.

    It's clearly not true - Every journalist and MP knows Parliament passed it.

    I think we're going through the same thing that happened when Trump took over in the US, and just told constant, easily provable lies. The media were so unused to it that they didn't know how to respond.
    Some people just like being lied to.

    I didn't really believe that until I was talking to somebody the other day about a mistruth Johnson had said about the 40 new hospitals. Their response was "well I know he's lying but Jeremy Corbyn will crash the economy". It's really very strange.
    I absolutely believe there will be 40 new hospitals built in the next 10 years.

    There are 1600 NHS hospitals so it's not hard to believe that 1 in 400 might need knocking down and rebuilding each year.

    To claim 40 new hospitals as some kind of demonstration of tory commitment to massive investment in the NHS is not credible, but the word lie is being overused and generally misused..


  • TimT said:

    Cookie said:

    Agree on PB being more pro-Tory than many other places - but there's nothing wrong with that. Most people are pleasant, you get the occasional nasty bully but they're quickly ignored.

    When I started posting, it was much more Labour leaning.
    As was the country as a whole!

    My experience on this site over the last 10 years is that the centre of political gravity on it swings around a fair bit, and perhaps mirroring the levels of optimism in the parties (i.e. more of the most optimistic party, fewer of the more pessimistic party re future prospects).
    At peak omnishambles Budget it was far from Tory dominated site...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,312
    New thread.
  • What was this place like in 2015?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,042
    argyllrs said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    Great stuff.

    Do us a favour, though. It’s Hinds’s, not Hinds’. There is only one of him, thankfully.
    Hinds' is correct
    No, it isn’t.
  • https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892

    What was this place like in 2015?

    Laughing at Ed Miliband trying to eat a bacon sandwich. In 2010 it was "I agree with Nick". In 2017 it was "how fucking shite is Theresa May".
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    IanB2 said:

    argyllrs said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    Great stuff.

    Do us a favour, though. It’s Hinds’s, not Hinds’. There is only one of him, thankfully.
    Hinds' is correct
    No, it isn’t.
    Leave you to look it up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,042
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Do you think Pidcock is likely to stand for Deputy Leader instead?

    I think it has to be Long Bailey or Pidcock for the leadership, I don't think both can run. Given that. I'd excpect Long Bailey to get the nod. Unless Corbyn contests any challenge against him. Then it would have to be the pair of them slugging it out to be the far left candidate for the deputy slot.
    Rebecca Long Bailey would be a truly dreadful choice as leader. She is rude, arrogant, lazy and not very bright.

    She would however be a considerably less awful choice than Pidcock.
    I particularly dislike people like Pidcock saying that they can never be friends with Tories. Prejudging people like that is evidence of a narrow and rigid mind, quite unsuited to persuading people not already on your side to vote for you. One of the things I admire about our own @NickPalmer is that he is prepared to give credit to people in other parties doing good work (eg Gove in Environment) and has personal friendships across the political divide.
    I absolutely endorse this. I find when people present their own pettiness and childishness in that way as a strength it really infuriates me. I know Tories who cannot stand others in their own party and get on great with Labour and LD figures on a personal level, and the same for Labour and Lib Dem figures. It's just pathetic to act like you cannot or should not be able to be friends with people because of politics. There may be some issues that if another supports would make closeness more difficult, but it's not black and white.

    It's why I cannot stand what is reported to be Skinner's approach to politics - the oldest baby in Parliament if his reputation is true.
    My dream election night is seeing both Skinner and Raab lose. Indeed if JRM loses as well I will be in the stratosphere.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,312

    https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is

    Ousting a leading SNP figure? The LD can have an extra seat for that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    MaxPB said:

    The man is back for those straw clutchers amongst us

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203305321277640705

    Honestly that guys could see a poll that says Con 55% Lab 20% and say "Good news for Johnson right? Well.. no"

    It's a bit sad really.
    Indeed, Boris winning by a landslide will clearly be bad for Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,910
    OllyT said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    Looks like this is a pro Tories betting forum. Anything anti Tories seems to be discouraged.

    Well, not really. Tot up the posts as you go through and it's not far from the balance of the UK as a whole, if we take the polls as roughly valid. Maybe a few more LDs than the country as a whole, but that shouldn't surprise us given that OGH is a Lib Dem, and if the site is demographically skewed in any way it is probably a lot more middle class than average.

    This isn't meant rudely, but new left-wing posters have come on here before and been quite taken aback at how pro-Tory it is, because it doesn't chime with their experience in which pretty much everyone is left wing.

    PB is currently far more Tory than the electorate, I don't honestly see how anyone can dispute that.
    No, PB might be more pro Remain and pro LD than the national average it is certainly not more Tory, especially with Boris as leader.

    Indeed a survey here in 2015 had the Tories and Labour having a share of posters matching their percentage at that year's election but with more LDs and fewer UKIP than nationally.
  • https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is

    True. Would be lovely to see the end of the humourless Blackford though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,312
    Everyone... there's a new thread!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,278

    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Tories and Lib Dems out in Fortune Green today: the Tory candidate is young, quite handsome, with an interesting backstory and, as far as I can see, as far away from the Francois, Rees-Mogg, Johnson type of Tories as it is possible to be. Quite what he is doing in the Tory party beats me.

    Ridiculous post. Just because you have a particular dislike of some the "names" in the Tory Party does not mean they are all like that. Frankly I think less of you for suggesting this man does not belong in the Tories.
    What he emphasises in his literature is a world away from what the Tory party leadership is saying. When I first read an email from him I thought it was from the Lib Dems. He seems to be a Tory in the mould of Gauke, Stewart and others who have been thrown out. Committed Tories do not seem to realise how offputting the current rather narrow Tory party is to those who are not obsessed by Brexit.

    Hope this helps:

    “Sally-Ann Hart, standing in the Tory marginal seat of Hastings, shared a video with an image implying that the billionaire George Soros, who is Jewish, controls the EU,”
    No
    “and she also liked a Nazi slogan on Facebook.”
    Yes

    “Lee Anderson, standing for the Conservatives in Labour-held Ashfield, is an active member of Ashfield Backs Boris, a Facebook group where Soros conspiracy theories have been promoted and which includes supporters of the far-right activist Tommy Robinson.”
    No

    “Richard Short, the candidate for St Helens South and Whiston, is being investigated for asking whether a Jewish journalist was more loyal to Israel than to Britain.”

    Yes. That last one would merit suspension.
    Jesus: none of the three should be in the party let alone candidates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is

    Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
  • Which constituency are you in, or if you don't want to say, are you N or S of the Severn-Wash line? These days it tends to define 'north and south'. (although I'm not sure about Cornwall).

    I increasingly don't bet on 'far away seats of which I know little', unless tips on this site come from people who seem to have a profitable betting record.

    I wouldn't even bet on Brecon and Radnor this election. I think the odds are about right, i.e. no value. In 2017, it was almost free money.

    Damian Hinds' seat.

    If I was to judge this election on this seat, I'd say the Tories are in real trouble, I've never seen so much Lib Dem activity before and so many Lib Dem posters.

    But of course, that would be ridiculous.
    It would.

    I live in the same seat and can tell you I've only seen 4-5 lib dem posters across my whole local area - and i travel across it a lot.

    Hinds has also been working it hard, and I haven't even seen anything or heard a peep from the LD candidate, who doesn't even live in the constituency.


    Very safe Tory hold.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311

    Can you block or hide trolls?

    There used to be Edmund's widget, but I never used it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,541

    More fundamental than that. If you owe me £10 but I say give me £5 and we call it quits, have I given you a tenner or a fiver?

    This is what those who keep saying the £350 million a week are ignoring. As far as the additional £60 million a week goes we never paid it, we had no commitment to pay it and we spent the money on something else. There was no saving to be made (as far as that additional amount is concerned.)

    There is an entirely additional amount paid to the European Comission as part of the UK aid budget. And it isn't spent on aid projects in the EU, that's in there too, it goes straight into EU coffers.

    My research:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/482322/SID2015c.pdf

    Page 48, you'll see the fugures given for what DFID sent to the European Commission plus the European Commission Development Fund in 2013 and 2014. Over a billion in 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid'.

    Bear in mind that none of this is going into specific aid programmes, as that is allocated differently, as Bilateral ODA through a mulitlateral organisation. It is money for the organisation to spend as it wishes.

    The real question is, is this money included in the calculations of the 'fees' we pay to the EU that the public is being given?

    Because if it isn't, and I suspect it isn't, because it doesn't figure in any of the summaries of what we pay, then it's a big thing. You might say that it doesn't count as it's just poorly spent aid, but when Multilateral Aid Organisations were assessed for VFM back in 2013, this is in the report:

    "MAR score of adequate or poor and on average “some” rating:

    as discussed, these organisations are important to development objectives and to wider UK strategic interests. All have made some progress against their UK reform priorities, but below the level that we were looking for. Given their importance to the UK, DFID is continuing to fund all of these organisations, with an increasing emphasis on the need for progress on reform objectives. The European Commission budget is fixed under international agreements. Funding to the other organisations in this group will remain at or below 2010 levels, meaning that the real value of UK contributions will continue to fall."
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/297523/MAR-review-dec13.pdf

    (pg 91)

    What this essentially means is that these aid payments are not discretionary, so should be included in our 'fees', and if they are not, it is deliberate evasion over what (with the exponential rise in ODA in these years) may amount to over 2 billion.

    It would be good for someone to establish if possible:
    How much we sent to the EC and EC Development Fund as MOD in 2015
    Whether this is being included in the calculation of our 'fees':

    End
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 584
    edited December 2019
    Labour Uncut had an article about surreptitious counting of postal votes in the run-up to the 2015 GE.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

    Their sources correctly gleaned that Labour were in big trouble in the English and Welsh marginals, but misleadingly indicated that things were not too terrible for Labour in Scotland.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,190
    On a betting note, anyone got info on the Mansfield tory/Labout fight....?
  • What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?

    The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Marcus01 said:

    Marcus01 said:

    M
    The £350 m quoted on the bus was not wrong. Our EU contribution is £19bn so not a lie. Misleading - perhaps - as about a quarter of that money makes its way back to the UK via various EU aid schemes and subsidies. but the claim was that we'd have control of an extra £350m a week which we could choose to spend on the NHS.

    Sorry Marcus but even as a completely committed Leaver I am afraid I can't agree with you on that. Our contribution was never £19 billion. The (extremely misnamed) rebate was taken off before a single penny ever left the UK. So our gross contributions were around £15 billion a year. Or £290 million a week. The idea that we would have that extra £60 million a week to spend on something else was entirely false.
    Richard, I voted Remain and would do so again. However I think it's wrong to say the £350 was a" lie". It was an exaggeration for sure, but theoretically/legally our obligation is £19bn (£20bn this year) - sure, we get the rebate and other money back but the central figure was a supportable fact. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31

    All politicians twist numbers to suit their argument. Morally questionable but as old as politics itself. Blatant lies are rare and usually to a public enquiry such as weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
    If you give me £10 and I immediately give you back £5, would you say that it was a lie to say you'd just become £5 richer?
    More fundamental than that. If you owe me £10 but I say give me £5 and we call it quits, have I given you a tenner or a fiver?

    This is what those who keep saying the £350 million a week are ignoring. As far as the additional £60 million a week goes we never paid it, we had no commitment to pay it and we spent the money on something else. There was no saving to be made (as far as that additional amount is concerned.)
    Technically if I say to a client “the bill is £100 but I will rebate you £20” then the bill is still £100 even if I only pay £80.

    The issue was with the word “send”.
  • If Brexit ends up being a disaster - which I think it will - we're almost certainly headed for a Labour Government in 2024. It will either be a landslide with a centrist or a modest win with a leftist, I would think. Up to the Labour Party which they prefer - but I would expect we will have a repeat of 1997 in that case.

    I wonder if this election will turn out as 1992.

    What happens if Brexit is not a disaster though? It’s not likely I admit, but it could happen. Boris does something stupidly terminal early in 2020, someone sensible takes over... I haven’t thought this through, have I?
    Like most Remainers, I sincerely hope Brexit is a success. If it is, I will be here happily acknowledging it.

    I wonder if our resident Leavers will be equally candid if, as is much more likely, it is a complete clusterfuck.
    We already know the answer. No.

    The measure of success now is it not being talked about and us not going into a recession.

    Nobody is arguing it will increase our growth, nobody is arguing it will be a brave new world. It's now something to be done and ignored as quickly as possible - that is not the measure of something people believe to be a success.

    Brexit is and always has been, a distraction. And any leftists should be frankly embarrassed to support it. They've been hoodwinked since day 1 - and it seems like a lot of Labour voters are about to be hoodwinked again.

    Call me an arrogant Islington Southerner all you want, I frankly don't care anymore. I've had enough abuse throughout this entire process that I don't care anymore.
    The measure ought to be more concerned with long term comparison between the UK and its european peers.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Cyclefree said:


    What he emphasises in his literature is a world away from what the Tory party leadership is saying. When I first read an email from him I thought it was from the Lib Dems. He seems to be a Tory in the mould of Gauke, Stewart and others who have been thrown out. Committed Tories do not seem to realise how offputting the current rather narrow Tory party is to those who are not obsessed by Brexit.

    I hear/read this sentiment quite a lot from remainers who are/were/could be Conservatives.

    Viewed through the prism of Brexit of course the party seems focused on delivering the referendum result to the exclusion of much else. That's because it is the defining issue of politics right now.

    Once withdrawal is complete Boris will be judged on his government policies and if you're a one nation Tory he's your man.

    Thatcher would have hated him.

  • MJWMJW Posts: 731

    TudorRose said:

    Agree on PB being more pro-Tory than many other places - but there's nothing wrong with that. Most people are pleasant, you get the occasional nasty bully but they're quickly ignored.

    When I started posting, it was much more Labour leaning.
    Which supports the hypothesis that bodies move to the right as they get older!!
    I think it has as much to do with Labour's drift leftwards. When it was New Labour, Tories and Orange-Book Lib Dems, they were all economically centrist pro-business globalist. The debate here was mainly over social issues like gay marriage, or small changes in various tax rates or how effective a particular benefits scheme might be.

    It is clear a lot of people on here are ABC (anybody but Corbyn) at this election, previously it was they quite liked Cameron compared to Brown. It isn't simply all signed up died in the wool Tories.
    As an occasional commenter over the years I used to get furious at the fact PB was more right-wing than me as I quite liked Gordon Brown and then Ed Miliband, it has always had a slight Orange Book Lib De/One nation Tory lean but a fair few Labour supporters. My values haven't changed, but I am a Never Corbyn person, which probably explains why you feel has moved. Other than Nick P Ex-MP and the odd hyper-partisan the formerly Labour leaning/apolitical types are horrified at Corbyn's Labour and post accordingly. I can think of a couple of posters who have gone on a similar journey. Lib Dems/soft Tories are also likely to be less sympathetic too.

    PB is reflecting the country.
This discussion has been closed.