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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YE

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

On this big day for #IndyRef Betfair punters put the chance of Winning YES vote at 18.9%
See chart pic.twitter.com/6wNdGL5zR3

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    I would rate a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 50pc
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Bet365 have just cut their Yes price to 4/1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,631
    SeanT, you beat me to it!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SeanT said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    I would rate a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 50pc

    Then I offer you £100 at evens that No will win.
    Why would I accept EVS from you when I can get 5/1 from Hills, Ladbrokes or Corals?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    malcolmg said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    According to the FT, Salmond really has threatened to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if he's not given his way on the Bank of England.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6c3be12-52c3-11e3-8586-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lkSj7gCy

    Incredible. So what's to stop the rUK government from saying Right, we're keeping half the gas and oil as it was developed by British companies, not Scots - on and on and on.

    This could get very messy and very rancorous very quickly. Again, I wonder if that is Salmond's plan - the only way to victory in the teeth of adverse polls is to cause chaos and bitterness...

    All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.

    Ho ho.

    So, Scotland votes Yes and Westminster says No? What happens then? Are you planning on sending gunboats up the Forth?
    They will get the speedboats across from Gibralter and start shouting at us.
    :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    SeanT said:


    BTW is anyone else having intimate pb problems?

    There's a cream you can get for that...

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Salmond WANTS a toe-to-toe slugfest with the Unionists,

    Absolutely, so why not give him more than what he wants and take the hit now?

    We'll take the debt and you take the oil, all the best. But the BoE sets rates for us, not you.

    As a thatcherite tory I wouldn't mind paying a bit extra in the short run to wave goodbye to fifty odd left leaning MPs.

    In the long run, I know I'd be better off.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    According to the FT, Salmond really has threatened to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if he's not given his way on the Bank of England.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6c3be12-52c3-11e3-8586-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lkSj7gCy

    Incredible. So what's to stop the rUK government from saying Right, we're keeping half the gas and oil as it was developed by British companies, not Scots - on and on and on.

    This could get very messy and very rancorous very quickly. Again, I wonder if that is Salmond's plan - the only way to victory in the teeth of adverse polls is to cause chaos and bitterness...

    All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.

    Ho ho.

    So, Scotland votes Yes and Westminster says No? What happens then? Are you planning on sending gunboats up the Forth?
    They will get the speedboats across from Gibralter and start shouting at us.
    :)
    Nope, the UK government will say we accept the vote, but we don't accept the current negotiating position and until that changes as far as we are concerned things stay as they are. It's more a case of what the Scottish government does in such circumstances. Does it declare independence unilaterally or does it modify its negotiating position? There is only one sensible answer to that question!

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    http://blog.cps.gov.uk/2013/11/cps-decisions-in-operation-alice-incident-at-downing-street-on-19-september-2012.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    For once I agree with @KevinMaguire: "If Cyber Nats a guide then Scotland would be a nastier country after divorce from Britain. Thankfully it won't happen"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,631
    @Carlotta, will all the Scots Nats return to Scotland after independence?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    @Carlotta, will all the Scots Nats return to Scotland after independence?

    We should live so long.......

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    I was at a dinner party in Edinburgh last night and met someone who had not made up his mind about this referendum. This was really distinctive as it is the first person I have met who is not sure one way or another for weeks.

    This is one of the many reasons the campaigning on both sides here is as flat as a pancake. There are very few who are (a) unsure, (b) open to persuasion and (c) at all likely to vote.

    We face another year arguing about relatively trivial matters. The idea that we should vote for independence because we would get extra child care, something already within the control of the Scottish Parliament if the money could be found, is a classic example. I find it depressing that so much time and effort is going to be spent arguing about whether we will be a few quid better or worse off.

    Devolution has undone much of the glue that held the UK together. It is the main reason I remain uncertain about the outcome. Do Scots want to remain British or not? That is really the question and much of the rest is just details. I fear I am going to lose my country. It is not a nice thought.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "This is all I've found in SNP White Paper about what happens to Scottish banks in event of crisis. Disturbingly vague"

    Unlike the complete and utter shambles presided over by Darling and Brown?

    *chortle*
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    SouthamObserver said:

    Nope, the UK government will say we accept the vote, but we don't accept the current negotiating position and until that changes as far as we are concerned things stay as they are. It's more a case of what the Scottish government does in such circumstances. Does it declare independence unilaterally or does it modify its negotiating position? There is only one sensible answer to that question!

    I know this one, it's "Sell Faslane to the Chinese".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    I think I'd rate the chance of a Yes at about 35%.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    For once I agree with @KevinMaguire

    Of the Mirror. On nastiness.

    LOL

    :)
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited November 2013
    The critical importance of Mitchell MP v NGN is reinforced by the CPS decision. The litigation is currently tied up in an important appeal relating to post-Jackson costs. A reserved judgment from Lord Dyson MR, Richards & Elias LJJ is expected shortly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SeanT said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    I would rate a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 50pc

    Then I offer you £100 at evens that No will win.
    Why would I accept EVS from you when I can get 5/1 from Hills, Ladbrokes or Corals?
    Then how much have you put on then at Hills, Ladbrokes or Corals? Given the incredibly generous in your eyes 5/1 that is almost free money but we had a thread the other day saying only 4% of bets have gone on Yes. Doesn't add up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    The idea that we should vote for independence because we would get extra child care, something already within the control of the Scottish Parliament if the money could be found, is a classic example.

    Sturgeon's defence for not doing it now was apparently 'If we did it now, women would go out to work and HMRC would get the revenue.....'

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    FPT:
    CarlottaVance said:

    So why the heck did they launch their White Paper in front of the press and not in Parliament where at least they'd have some on their side? The stage management sucked.

    You really are living on a different planet if you think the reception would have been any less hostile from the unionist parties and press whether it was in Holyrood, Westminster or anywhere else. You deal with the press head on because they're coming at you anyway and they aren't your real target to begin with. Now that the press is out of the way the white paper and it's message goes to where it was always intended. On the ground with the logistics of the ground campaign that Yes have been working away at for years while No was still entranced by media appearances. No aren't going to know what hit them unless they get off their arse and start working on that ground campaign because those relying on SLAB to get a small army of activists out there clearly haven't heard about SLAB's membership numbers of late or the complete shambles at the heart of SLAB with Lamont and her boss little Ed not exactly best placed to convince their activists to give them 100% after Falkirk.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:

    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref pic.twitter.com/EPKaSBWCDY
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Told ya!

    There are no plans to change the Union Flag if Scotland becomes an independent state, according to the College of Arms.

    Speaking to ITV News, the authority for official flags for the UK and the Commonwealth, said the Queen would remain the head of state in an independent Scotland and therefore the Union Flag would not be affected.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-11-26/no-plans-to-change-union-flag/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    FPT:

    CarlottaVance said:

    So why the heck did they launch their White Paper in front of the press and not in Parliament where at least they'd have some on their side? The stage management sucked.

    You really are living on a different planet if you think the reception would have been any less hostile from the unionist parties and press whether it was in Holyrood
    Eck can do no wrong.....but having at at least partially sympathetic audience might have alleviated his snoozathon....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
    Yes makes claim about 'future'
    No makes claim about 'present'

    SNP are time travellers as they know the future.

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    tim said:

    Cameron and Heywood witheld it and then Crick and Mitchell edited it?

    Danny Shaw ‏@DannyShawBBC 40s
    CPS says CCTV shown by Channel 4/Dispatches had been edited & "did not show the full picture" #plebgate

    Danny Shaw ‏@DannyShawBBC 1m
    CPS says Andrew Mitchell's account "has varied since the incident" #plebgate

    The difficulty for the pro-police line on this cannot be discussed because of the strict liability rule. It is, however, perfectly obvious. On a different matter altogether, it will be interesting to see what the Crown suggest was PC Wallis' motivation for allegedly misconducting himself.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    Eck can do no wrong.....but having at at least partially sympathetic audience might have alleviated his snoozathon....

    Whereas you have to think Lamont, little Ed, Darling and SLAB can do no wrong after Falkirk.
    Oh dear.

    The only ones snoozing are those so out of touch that they don't know just how important the ground campaign will be. Happily SLAB the scottish lib dems and SCON really are that complacent.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Pretty extraordinary public airing of the Conservative Party's dirty linen.
    Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant 4m
    Andrew Mitchell is suing the Sun newspaper over #Plebgate "libel". Will his case be helped by the CPS findings?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any civil avenues open to Mr Mitchell.

    I must say this is all a bit surprising given the Mitchell camp's confidence.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
    Yes makes claim about 'future'
    No makes claim about 'present'
    In other words No don't even have any positive claims to make about scotland's future.
    Well spotted.

    :)

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Salmond and Sturgeon put extending childcare at the centre of their prospectus. An SNP government in an independent Scotland would offer "a transformational change in childcare so that, over time, every child from age one to starting school is guaranteed 30 hours of provision for 38 weeks of the year". By the end of the first independent Scottish parliament (ie, by 2020) every three and four-year-old, and every vulnerable two-year-old, would already get this free childcare. Sturgeon would not say how much this would cost, but she said that getting more women into work would generate tax revenue. Ironically, this is an area where policy is already devolved to Westminster[sic - either from Westminster or to Edinburgh]. Asked why the SNP was not extending free childcare along these lines already, Sturgeon said that it did not want to extra revenue generated to go to Westminster.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/scottish-government-publishes-white-paper-on-independence-politics-live-blog#block-52945229e4b0fc237c3f0345
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    TGOHF said:

    Any civil avenues open to Mr Mitchell.

    I must say this is all a bit surprising given the Mitchell camp's confidence.

    He has issued an action for defamation against the relevant publisher. It is tied up in an interlocutory costs appeal at the moment.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    CarlottaVance said:

    Told ya!

    There are no plans to change the Union Flag if Scotland becomes an independent state, according to the College of Arms.

    Speaking to ITV News, the authority for official flags for the UK and the Commonwealth, said the Queen would remain the head of state in an independent Scotland and therefore the Union Flag would not be affected.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-11-26/no-plans-to-change-union-flag/

    WTF, since when was the Union Jack the flag of The Queen?

    If that's what it's about they'll have to work this lot in there somewhere as well:
    http://www.flags.net/COMN.htm
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    tim said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Pretty extraordinary public airing of the Conservative Party's dirty linen.
    Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant 4m
    Andrew Mitchell is suing the Sun newspaper over #Plebgate "libel". Will his case be helped by the CPS findings?

    The PB Tories have been rambling about Ed Miliband apoligising and have wiped all of this from their memory banks.
    Mitchell was despised and forced out by his own side, Cameron, characteristically was spineless in the middle of it all, sitting on evidence and letting events unfold around him.

    Your reading of the situation is, as usual, ridiculous.

    Ed should apologise.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    @Tim

    "I'll defend the government on this . It's bollocks......."

    I completely agree. I spent last week in Aberdeen with some serious lefties and who also happened to be doctors so I'm relatively up to speed on medical issues-at least in Scotland. My tongue in cheek point was that it's time Hunt stopped trying to score points. It not only really irritates those of us who are receiving NHS treatment or who have family who are but it's also a game for any number of players as the wretched Hunt Is about to find out.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Scottish tory surge!

    LOL

    :)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Mitchell was despised and forced out by his own side, Cameron, characteristically was spineless in the middle of it all, sitting on evidence and letting events unfold around him.

    Nice hand-brake turn there, tim. Your many admirers here would expect nothing less, of course, but the way you've seamlessly switched from 'Cameron sat on the evidence and allowed Mitchell to be forced out unjustly' is impressive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Grauniad on Plebgate:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/plebgate-police-officer-charged-andrew-mitchell
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    John Swinney not having much fun on the Daily Politics - getting tied up in the childcare 'do it now' argument.....not to mention the pound.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Big Issue Bristol ‏@bigissuebristol 1h

    Vicky Pryce, wife of Chris Huhne speaks to the Big Issue about prison life & marriage in this week's 'Letter to my Younger Self'.


    Energy Saving Co-op ‏@ES_Coop 16h

    Is @David_Cameron so short term he puts headlines today above low bills tomorrow? Chris Huhne in @guardianeco http://s.coop/1totp
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    Right wing you say? Were they shouting "British jobs for British workers" at you woger?

    Don't think so.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2013
    One officer to be charged ( the letter writer)

    5 more total to face charges of gross misconduct.

    Will the 5 face charges before the court case ?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OT, big swing back to the Republicans as the government shutdown stuff fades and the ObamaCare website omnishambles kicks in:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/26/cnnorc-poll-democrats-lose-2014-edge-following-obamacare-uproar/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    Hear hear Roger.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Surely if the Jocks go our national flag will be a white background with two red crosses on it - the vertical /horizontal English one and the diagonal saltire one of Wales. ie Union Jack minus the blue. We could of course have a competition to design a completely new one. I suspect Prime Minister Miliband would favour a bright red background with a yellow hammer and sickle or something like that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Patrick said:

    Surely if the Jocks go our national flag will be a white background with two red crosses on it - the vertical /horizontal English one and the diagonal saltire one of Wales. ie Union Jack minus the blue. We could of course have a competition to design a completely new one. I suspect Prime Minister Miliband would favour a bright red background with a yellow hammer and sickle or something like that.

    Also the Scots would presumably join the Commonwealth, in which case they'd have a little Union Jack in the corner of theirs. They can't keep the Scottish flag in the Union Jack or it'll cause recursion issues.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    Hear hear Roger.

    InterraceToday.com ‏@InterraceToday

    From http://InterraceToday.com : PM's new fixer in racist rant at Muslims: Foul-mouthed abuse by campaign chief... http://tinyurl.com/c4dfuv4
    Which is why Cammie can call the kippers fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists without anyone laughing at him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    I'm on the fence on the merits but there's no denying the short-term political impact: A big move to the right in both countries.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Patrick said:

    Surely if the Jocks go our national flag will be a white background with two red crosses on it - the vertical /horizontal English one and the diagonal saltire one of Wales. ie Union Jack minus the blue. We could of course have a competition to design a completely new one. I suspect Prime Minister Miliband would favour a bright red background with a yellow hammer and sickle or something like that.

    The diagonal one is the flag of St Patrick, for Ireland, which, needless to say, survived the creation of the Irish Free State (and subsequent Republic).

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Thanet Extra ‏@ThanetExtra 1h

    UKIP claim that Thanet South MP Laura Sandys feared facing leader Nigel Farage at general election is 'wrong',... http://bit.ly/1jFaUSI
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    CPS on Plebgate:

    http://blog.cps.gov.uk/2013/11/cps-decisions-in-operation-alice-incident-at-downing-street-on-19-september-2012.html

    Journalists and users of social media are urged to exercise care and restraint in any additional reporting or commenting on the following statement. This is because they may risk committing a contempt of court as strict liability contempt rules apply.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Tim Shipman (Mail) ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m
    Follow @Mike_Fabricant tweets for the view of Mitchell affair from the whips office rebels who wanted him out

    Michael Fabricant ‏@Mike_Fabricant 1m
    Channel 4 News and @MichaelLCrick will have some interesting coverage - and back-tracking - tonight I suspect.

    Curious isn't it?


    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 50m

    BREAKING: CPS - No10 CCTV footage "is consistent with the officer’s account that several members of the public were present". #plebgate
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Thanks for the correction Grandiose
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edmundintokyo said:

    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    I'm on the fence on the merits but there's no denying the short-term political impact: A big move to the right in both countries.
    Which, relatively speaking, would still keep Scotland to the left of current English politics.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    bit of history in advance from Mr Delingpole

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100247756/is-china-about-to-tell-the-west-game-over/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited November 2013
    Mick_Pork said:



    In other words No don't even have any positive claims to make about scotland's future.
    Well spotted.
    :)

    Funny, and true.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 1h
    I suppose I'm not supposed to think this but... the #indyplan White Paper is not a bad piece of work. Not definitive but a decent prospectus
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Theuniondivvie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Roger said:

    I was quite in favour of Scottish independence until my sojourn in Aberdeen
    but have reluctantly come to the conclusion that it's deeply embedded in right wing nationalism which no self respecting socialist-champagne or otherwise-should countenance.

    I'm on the fence on the merits but there's no denying the short-term political impact: A big move to the right in both countries.
    Which, relatively speaking, would still keep Scotland to the left of current English politics.

    I'm not sure that it would given the combination of nationalism and the economic incentives for low tax, low spending and deregulation. But it would certainly be a different kind of right-wingery.
  • Robert_Of_SheffieldRobert_Of_Sheffield Posts: 207
    tim said:

    Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka
    So the police officer at the gate, who presumably said Andrew Mitchell used word "pleb", is not facing any disciplinary. No evidence he lied

    Hardly. There's insufficient evidence to prove criminal charges beyond reasonable doubt, the required legal standard, but that's a long way from there being no evidence.

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
    Yes makes claim about 'future'
    No makes claim about 'present'
    In other words No don't even have any positive claims to make about scotland's future.
    Well spotted.

    :)

    Er! Salmond and Sturgeon have to sell their dreams and explain why it is relevant to the people of Scotland. It is not up to the Unionists to sell new policies to counter the fantasies, their job is to question and by exposing the frailities in the separista arguments.

    Of course, if there are no problems in responding to the questions, there will be an overwhelming majority voting Yes!

    Unfortunately, flaw 1, by tying Scotland to sterling we can see that we will have no control over our finances. Sorry, but by rejoining the EU, Scotland, as a new entrant would have to join the Euro,replacing Westminster by Bruge. What independence?

    Flaw 2: Scotland would not vote to retain the monarchy, or NATO, or wind farms.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Milliband should not apologise for his dreadful smear on Mitchell .. if he did it would make him look slightyly less of a prat than he is..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good afternoon, my fellow Anglo-Saxons.

    FPT: Mr. G - "LOL, Mr D , you boys do not like it up em as cpl jones would say. You cannot have it all ways, if we are to pay your debts we want something in return. "

    '...your debts...' is palpably false, Mr. G. If Scotland (circa 10% of the UK in population terms) separates it's indefensible to suggest they have the option of taking zero debt.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Operation Alice in Wonderland.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited November 2013
    Edin_Rokz said:


    Sorry, but by rejoining the EU, Scotland, as a new entrant would have to join the Euro,replacing Westminster by Bruge. What independence?

    Can you tell me when Sweden is going to 'have' to adopt the Euro?
    Edin_Rokz said:


    Flaw 2: Scotland would not vote to retain the monarchy, or NATO, or wind farms.

    I'd be comfortable with the first two, and in principle with all three on the basis that we were allowed to make the decisions for ourselves. That's the whole point!
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 354
    DavidL said:

    I was at a dinner party in Edinburgh last night and met someone who had not made up his mind about this referendum. This was really distinctive as it is the first person I have met who is not sure one way or another for weeks.

    This is one of the many reasons the campaigning on both sides here is as flat as a pancake. There are very few who are (a) unsure, (b) open to persuasion and (c) at all likely to vote.

    We face another year arguing about relatively trivial matters. The idea that we should vote for independence because we would get extra child care, something already within the control of the Scottish Parliament if the money could be found, is a classic example. I find it depressing that so much time and effort is going to be spent arguing about whether we will be a few quid better or worse off.

    Devolution has undone much of the glue that held the UK together. It is the main reason I remain uncertain about the outcome. Do Scots want to remain British or not? That is really the question and much of the rest is just details. I fear I am going to lose my country. It is not a nice thought.

    Post of the year! This really cuts through the bulls**t!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    New Scotland Yard on Operation Alice:

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/88911/operation_alice_latest_from_nsy.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
    Yes makes claim about 'future'
    No makes claim about 'present'
    In other words No don't even have any positive claims to make about scotland's future.
    Well spotted.

    :)

    Er! Salmond and Sturgeon have to sell their dreams and explain why it is relevant to the people of Scotland.
    Er! You mean sell their vision to the people like every single election and referendum ever held? I'm sure that never occurred to them.

    Simply making unionist counterclaims and spin is not proof of anything.
    Some of SCON seem to be trying to peddle amusing nonsense about it not really being independence while SLAB are full on with end of the world scenarios because of the devastating things that moving the powers from westminster to scotland will bring.


    It will come as a shock to you I know but the No campaign don't get to decide that the referendum will only be about the questions they want. It's about what happens after a No just as much as a Yes. So you're going to see the campaign reflect that both in the debates and on the ground. Assuming of course SLAB ever gets off their arse to form a coherent ground campaign. Though shambolic as they are they will still be far more visible than SCON on the ground.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Edin_Rokz said:


    Sorry, but by rejoining the EU, Scotland, as a new entrant would have to join the Euro,replacing Westminster by Bruge. What independence?

    Can you tell me when Sweden is going to 'have' to adopt the Euro?
    The next time Sweden applies to join the EU, having left it.

    Next question.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka
    So the police officer at the gate, who presumably said Andrew Mitchell used word "pleb", is not facing any disciplinary. No evidence he lied

    "It is clear from the footage that there was sufficient time for the words to have been said either as described by the gate officer or as described by Mr Mitchell …"

    no evidence he lied. No evidence he didn't lie.

    Edit: goes for Mitchell also of course.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I would certainly like to see the unedited CCTV, as when Mitchell walked through the gate there was no one there if you can take the CCTV from the downing street end as legitimate. Are they saying there is other CCTV which shows 20 people all gathered round who then disappeared as soon as he walked through the gate. I do really think they have to release the "unedited" CCTV if it is that different to what Channel 4 showed.

    The police officers at the gate were never going to be charged as it it one mans word against another. Its interesting that the officer who has been charged felt the need to write the letter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The New Statesman views the Scottish question through English eyes:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/salmonds-only-hope-victory-tory-recovery
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Edin_Rokz said:


    Sorry, but by rejoining the EU, Scotland, as a new entrant would have to join the Euro,replacing Westminster by Bruge. What independence?

    Can you tell me when Sweden is going to 'have' to adopt the Euro?
    Is it after Cammie finally decides whether he supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron Referendum. Since that throws no uncertainty about being in the EU at all, does it?

    LOL

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    One of the most incredible things about Plebgate is the fact that London has more security cameras than virtually the rest of the world put together, yet at the entrance to Downing Street there appear to be only a couple of cameras taking not particularly hiqh quality footage, apparently without any sound (which could have been crucial in this instance). You'd expect there to be dozens of state-of-the-art cameras covering the entrance to the street.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If Scotland (circa 10% of the UK in population terms) separates it's indefensible to suggest they have the option of taking zero debt. ''

    It's not indefensible, i'd say it was highly advisable. I'd much rather keep all our debt than give Scotland 10%.

    Better to let them off this and let them keep all the oil in the interests of a quick, clean divorce.

    rUK would be better off in the long run.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Better Together 10 reasons to stay in the Union:


    With so much uncertainty around the promises in the White Paper, here are 10 things we know we benefit from #indyref


    Yes makes claims = "uncertainty". No makes claims = "we know".

    Unspoofable. ;^ )
    Yes makes claim about 'future'
    No makes claim about 'present'
    In other words No don't even have any positive claims to make about scotland's future.
    Well spotted.

    :)

    Er! Salmond and Sturgeon have to sell their dreams and explain why it is relevant to the people of Scotland.
    It will come as a shock to you I know but the No campaign don't get to decide that the referendum will only be about the questions they want.
    Brian Taylor (BBC Scotland) made a good point - on the doorstep the pitches are going to be:

    Nationalist: 'Childcare, Pensions, Welfare'
    Unionist: 'Currency, EU, Nato'

    Of course the first of the Unionists points directly affects all of the SNPs selling points - but the SNP have more of the 'bread & butter' and directly personal issues.....

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited November 2013
    CarlottaVance said:

    The next time Sweden applies to join the EU, having left it.

    Next question.

    How would your hypothesis accommodate Sweden 'leaving' the EU while its citizens remain EU citizens?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scotland has about 8% of the UK's population.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Arnie Graf is a bigger threat to his opponents than Lynton Crosby, discuss:

    http://labourlist.org/2013/11/labour-releases-new-campaign-video-with-voiceover-from-arnie-graf/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The average Labour lead in polls published during November 2012 was 10%. So far this month it's 7%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Margaret Davis ‏@MargaretDavisPA 4m

    My latest #Plebgate story http://news.uk.msn.com/action-against-plebgate-police … We'll hear from Andrew Mitchell at 4pm
    Fairly quick. He must have something to say.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Taffys, I'm perplexed by your perspective.

    You want them get off scot-free? And keep whatever assets they want? In exchange for... what? Why would that make the UK better off?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scotland has about 8% of the UK's population

    I'd say its not only in the interests of England to forgive Scotland any debt, but its also in our interests to give them a divorce settlement.

    I'd happily take all the debt, let them have all the oil AND give Scotland 25 billion sterling as a down payment on a flat.

    I still think England would be better off in the medium term. And relations with Scotland would be much better with a generous settlement for the latter.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The next time Sweden applies to join the EU, having left it.

    Next question.

    How would your hypothesis accommodate Sweden 'leaving' the EU while its citizens remain EU citizens?
    According to Jim Naughtie (can't find it online) the EU Commission has said 'Scotland would be a new member = Euro + Shengen' - (got to verify in case its a Spanish Commissioner whose comments would be aimed more at Catalonia than Scotland) - and in any case it would come down to what the countries say.

    But pretending either the Euro or Shengen are 'off the table' is delusional.

    Ireland is in the Common Travel Area - and the Euro.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    If Scotland became independent the rest of the UK would become one of the most densely populated countries in the world since Scotland comprises about a third of the UK's land area.

    In fact the population of the rest of the UK would probably still be 60 million without Scotland since the UK population is heading for about 65 million by March 2016.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2013
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Taffys, I'm perplexed by your perspective.

    You want them get off scot-free? And keep whatever assets they want? In exchange for... what? Why would that make the UK better off?

    The UK pays to deport people. Despite the short-term financial loss, it's clear that in the long term it's worth making the 'investment'. This holds true irrespective of whether or not it's 'fair' that it's the taxpayer and not the deportee which coughs up. Same applies to Scotland, in that it's worth paying to be free of the neverending drain on the economy. Plus they get to keep Gordon.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Have a look at the CCTV still halfway down this report:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1173856/plebgate-officer-charged-with-misconduct

    Are the CPS saying that the gathering of people has been airbrushed out from this CCTV as this still is about 2 seconds after the "confrontation."

    I have a feeling the extra CCTV that we have not seen will never be released.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Just heard David Davis on the 1 o'clock news. A poor advocate for Mitchell . Far too strident and instead of relying on known evidence as he should have done lots of hints and innuendo about stuff he knew but couldn't talk about. I suspect this might blow up in Mitchell's face without any of us being any the wiser
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''You want them get off scot-free? And keep whatever assets they want? In exchange for... what? Why would that make the UK better off? ''

    All that would be easily worth the chance of a genuine public spending slashing, tax cutting, free market loving, wealth creating, business backing, boundary equalising, Europe defying, free fracking tory government. Which is what we may well get without Scotland.

    England would be the beneficiary in the medium term big time. It would become an extremely wealthy country quite quickly, even with all the debt and no oil.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    taffys said:

    ''You want them get off scot-free? And keep whatever assets they want? In exchange for... what? Why would that make the UK better off? ''

    All that would be easily worth the chance of a genuine public spending slashing, tax cutting, free market loving, wealth creating, business backing, boundary equalising, Europe defying, free fracking tory government. Which is what we may well get without Scotland.

    England would be the beneficiary in the medium term big time. It would become an extremely wealthy country quite quickly, even with all the debt and no oil.

    Remind me never to use you as an agent !!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    currystar said:


    I have a feeling the extra CCTV that we have not seen will never be released.

    4pm Press Conference, according to David Davis.....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Joan McAlpine for Scotland's first Foreign Secretary!

    It answers 650 questions about Scotland’s future – everything you ever thought to ask and some that probably never occurred to you.

    It makes America’s historic Declaration of Independence look like a Post-it note.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/joan-mcalpine-who-you-trust-2851859

    Of course, some might think a post-it note more compelling....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Told ya!

    There are no plans to change the Union Flag if Scotland becomes an independent state, according to the College of Arms.

    Speaking to ITV News, the authority for official flags for the UK and the Commonwealth, said the Queen would remain the head of state in an independent Scotland and therefore the Union Flag would not be affected.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-11-26/no-plans-to-change-union-flag/

    WTF, since when was the Union Jack the flag of The Queen?

    If that's what it's about they'll have to work this lot in there somewhere as well:
    http://www.flags.net/COMN.htm
    Since when? Since 1606. The Union Flag originates to King James VI and I in 1606 well before the Act of Union
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    Jeremy Browne has been reselected for the LDs in Taunton Deane:

    twitter.com/GazettePHill/status/404933433844985857
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited November 2013
    I was a busy in the last few days..if you haven't seen them, ConHome have shortlists for Wealden and SE Cambridgeshire.
    Wealden is 3 recurring names + 1 new. SE Cambridgeshire is 2 new + 2 recurring
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    An important point of law for the trial judge will be whether PC Wallis was acting in his capacity as a police constable when he is alleged to have falsely claimed to have witnessed the incident. From the public record, there are grounds for doubting that he was. If the judge decides that he was acting qua private citizen, the case won't get before a jury.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    CarlottaVance said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The next time Sweden applies to join the EU, having left it.

    Next question.

    How would your hypothesis accommodate Sweden 'leaving' the EU while its citizens remain EU citizens?
    According to Jim Naughtie (can't find it online) the EU Commission has said 'Scotland would be a new member = Euro + Shengen' - (got to verify in case its a Spanish Commissioner whose comments would be aimed more at Catalonia than Scotland) - and in any case it would come down to what the countries say.

    But pretending either the Euro or Shengen are 'off the table' is delusional.

    Ireland is in the Common Travel Area - and the Euro.....
    No need to join the Euro, Sweden figured out the cheat codes. Just stay out of the ERM. In any case nobody's going to want to make the Euro situation any more complicated than it already is.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    This plebgate saga bores me. I am beyond caring.

    If this was in a school playground , and the boy (police) who got called a name went to the teacher , the teacher would say to the boy who allegedly called him a name 'did you call such and such a name'? and the boy would say 'No Miss ' or 'I did but he started it ' or 'I did but I am sorry' and the teacher would say to the boy ' well be careful what you say to people in future' and also secretly think that the boy who ratted on him was a bit soft and needed to toughen up and then that would be it !!!

    Why when it involves politicians and police (two supposed pillars/leaders of society) does it involve wasting millions of pounds on investigations ,sackings and possible court cases??

    What a ridiculous country we have become
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    CarlottaVance said:

    currystar said:


    I have a feeling the extra CCTV that we have not seen will never be released.

    4pm Press Conference, according to David Davis.....

    Will they show the CCTV? David Davis did say on the news that Mitchells lawyer has seen the unedited CCTV and that it actually strengthens Michells case. Its getting weird.
This discussion has been closed.