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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election
After the general election the biggest UK election from a betting perspective has traditionally been the battle to win the London Mayoralty. There have been four elections since the post was created in 2000 and each has attracted a lot of betting interest.
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That said I'm not sure this is the market to be backing Tessa on.
Although PP didn't let me put much on Khan at 12/1.
Open a WInner.com account now and Tessa Jowell is STILL 12-1 there for the mayoralty.
I had a tenner on, topped up to £25 now.
He's 50/1 with William Hill to be the candidate.
I take it, you wouldn't advise that bet, even at those odds??
Has a 50/1 tip for next President ever been tipped on PB?
That said, HenryG has a fine record in this kind of thing and Sadiq Khan still sounds to me to be in a stronger position than his odds suggest; the reverse applies to Jowell.
Jowell's main claim to fame is helping bring the Olympics to London. By 2016, that will be eleven years in the past was in any case a minor public role compared with, say, Lord Coe.
I'd to see him run against Hillary using all the right-wing stuff about Benghazi, but I don't think he's cheeky enough.
I want to see that.
And Eddie Izzard said he would stand in 2020. Presumably this means he hopes Tessa wins or Labour loses because I cant see any of the others being there for just one term!
She should go for it - more impressive than the other (forty-something) Labour candidates....
Assuming well-off London life expectancy she'll have another 18 years at age 69....
1) The new Tallyrand deserving of the exuberant praise normally issued after election victories
or
2) Was there only to provide the tea and biscuits
;-)
Even if one did want to run, there haven't been many open contests to give the sitting SoS an opening (and even when there has been, the VP usually has precedence), and if it's not an open contest i.e. the candidate would be up against a president of the opposing party, foreign policy tends to have too low a priority among US primaries voters for a former-SoS to score well.
A fascinating post by VoteTalk's David Boothroyd on the Brixton slavery case:
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/120637/thread
"And here is the story of the police raid in 1978 which closed down the Mao Zedong centre: http://www.marxists.org/history/erol/uk.hightide/closure.htm "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tessa_Jowell_financial_allegations
A problem this creates is why should anyone publicly support them when they risk being made to look stupid by the next policy shift.
It really is a rerun of the Heath government in younger, posher form.
It brings to mind the 'Tatler Tories' choosing which cabinet positions they would have before they'd dealt with the inconvenience of first being elected:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/a-future-tory-cabinet--at-least-according-to-tatler-6898834.html
There was also Louise Mensch.
Seriously though. Mayoralities are personality-driven elections. Do I need to say more?
Labour wanted to increase energy prices when in power, now they want to freeze them.
Continue ad infinitum for al parties.
In some ways this is good: if facts change, then politicians should feel free to change their minds as well. Whilst changing views willy-nilly is bad, so is remaining steadfast in the face of changed circumstances.
Almost entirely correct! Would only add that there's some great stuff being made right now. Do you know Sharon Jones & the DapKings, or Charles Bradley? Both late starters (SJ worked in a prison until she was 40ish and CB released his debut album at the age of 67 I think) from Daptone Records in NYC, and both amazing live performers. Sharon Jones is like a James Brown/Tina Turner hybrid, has been out of action for a few months due to operation on a cancer in her stomach and chemo after, but has tour planned for next year. Think she's playing at the roundhouse in Camden and would highly recommend if you can make it.
I'm a bit sick of having endless cloned young men running things. It's not as if they have made or are making such a good job of it.
I like Tessa Jowell a lot.
http://www.refsmmat.com/statistics/
Maybe we need more younger men. Pitt the Younger and Alexander the Great did rather well.
Edited extra bit: and the Black Prince.
Isn't that modern speak for a lot of conditions that used to be called "mental illness"?
Has anyone read of a recent case where someone in the spotlight has been diagnosed with "mental illness"?
Rolls eyes.
Anyway George Eaton over at the Staggers puts it well.
On Today, Osborne sounded remarkably Miliband-esque as he spoke of how government "needs to step in to create the rules of the market" and to ensure that capitalism "works for hardworking people"...
Osborne might be right when he argues that those who support a free market system have never believed in "complete laissez-faire" but the problem for him is that the government has often given the impression that they should...
The Treasury's response to those noting this irony is to argue that the government will intervene in markets (as in the case of Help to Buy) when it can do so to the genuine benefit of people; a cap on energy prices remains a "gimmick" that will help no one
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/osborne-echoes-miliband-he-calls-government-set-rules-market
Hamilton 189
Rosberg 171
The above is the points this year for each driver. But Rosberg had 3 retirements (one is classified as 19th but he did retire) to Hamilton's 1. That's an average (per race finish) of 10.6875 to Hamilton's 10.5 (or almost exactly even).
Yet Hamilton's 5 to win the 2014 title and Rosberg's 17 (Ladbrokes).
Not a tip, but when I have some more free time I'll look at this and maybe make some token bets.
Charles Bradley - No Time For Dreaming
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtviJ5ZSTGM
Sharon Jones & the DapKings - Nobody's Baby
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIt19gX9wjo
Maybe that's what he is asking himself.
The BBC recently reported that Farage has health issues arising from his air crash and will have to go under the knife.
If Ed Miliband’s office did know and agree Unite’s strategy in Falkirk, but then signed-off a report lambasting the strategy as “manipulating party processes”, fundamental questions would be asked about the leader’s honesty.
It would escalate the crisis in Falkirk to a new level. The problems would no longer be confined to a far flung Scottish constituency. The new focus would be Labour HQ at Brewer’s Green, and the most senior officials in the party: the general secretary and the leader’s office.
And that’s why the party’s report on Falkirk will never be published.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/25/the-real-reason-labour-will-never-publish-the-falkirk-report/
In a political world where the name of Dr.David Kelly was ushered into the public domain at the height of the media mole-hunt for Andrew Giligan’s source, and the findings of the Hutton report into Dr.Kelly’s death were leaked to the Sun before its official publication, this level of secrecy is extraordinary.
Now, the real reason that Labour’s report on Falkirk has been subject to greater security than matters of war and peace, has become clearer.
http://www.londonspovertyprofile.org.uk/indicators/topics/londons-geography-population/londons-population-by-age/
Look for a candidate who looks young enough for the average London voter to relate to.
Though not everyone is happy in the reformed party of private market interference.
Taken from Conhome: "For a start, its launch does not have the hallmarks of a long-planned policy. Announcing something on the morning airwaves but not pre-briefing the newspapers suggest a rather short notice decision.
The Financial Conduct Authority says it was given no prior warning, which adds weight to the impression this is a bit of a snap call.....What is the point of the much-heralded “independent regulator” system if this becomes common practice? There is now a risk that other regulators will clamp down on practices just in case the Treasury thinks they ought to, rather than on the basis of their honest assessment of the facts."
That is the real risk involved in this step: the weakening of the argument against Labour’s proposal to intervene in every market imaginable.
Deliberately opening such a chink in our own armour, when Labour intend to make cost of living a battleground for the election, is a problem."
Go Marxist Gideon!
We are all Marxists now.
Got a link to this Cosmic Ether thing or whatever it is?
Clarke's comment to Anderson was something a thug would say not a gentleman cricketer. Warners comment about Trott was perhaps not good form and impolite but less serious as to Clarkes loutish behaviour
Anyway. Mills is a pretty big albatrous for Jowell whatver her credentials. he has admitted lying in court to HMRC, being associated with Berlusconi and other unsavoury itlalian 'businessmen.' Jowell is back together with him. It's a hard sell, even for Roger....although perhaps with a run at mayoralty looming they might unfortunately split up again. I doubt the other labour candidates will lose much sleep over this.
Really nowadays lots of words and phrases have lost their meaning thanks to fear of causing offence or desire to target an enemy.
Was speaking to a friend of mine earlier who was called an "Arab" in print and the editors deleted the piece and profusely apologised even though he describes himself as half Arab, and the point made in relation to the use of the word "Arab" was not unjust or offensive.
"“The UK is flying off the shelves. 12 months ago we were working with 40 multinational companies that were looking to undertake global and regional headquarter relocations into the UK. But the pipeline has been building rapidly. Over half of these transactions have already completed and we now expect over 60 companies to come to the UK’s shores in the next 18 months, creating jobs and boosting economic growth prospects.
http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Newsroom/News-releases/13-11-25---The-UK-is-flying-off-the-shelves
More worryingly, is this what's causing the increasingly shrill warnings about anti biotic resistance?
Maths joke: if you have a pizza with radius z and thickness a, its volume is pizza (or pi*z*z*a)
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/nov/25/one-dimension-doctor-who-matt-smith
Almost as epic as putting Andrew Neil on a boat in the Thames on election night.....
http://tinyurl.com/ozw27v2
Some people should be kept away forcibly from marriage/divorce/stick together for the children metaphors...
I mean six...
There are 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Edited extra bit: those interested in speculative bets might also wish to consider Magnussen for the 2014 title at 50/1.
It goes like this: Someone gets quite extraordinary (random) results in an experiment. Those are interesting so they get reported and studied further. Other scientists look for similar findings, and those that comply are then reported. Over time, more sceptical results are published, and the (so called) decline effect sets in.
Consider climate science (AGW): how many people could/can even get funding if they want to disprove it? There is bias built-in right from the start, let alone what is allowed to be reported by the group-think, and then variability in actual weather data.
I think the scientific approach should not be called "peer review", but actually "peer pressure". Might be more accurate.
http://citywire.co.uk/money/co-op-bank-preference-share-holders-to-get-shares-not-cash-divi/a720276?utm_medium=twitter
Worthless paper?
We're being restructured at the moment as well and a HQ move to Ireland (which was on the table as recently as last year) is now off the table and the board are looking a massive investment in freehold office space in London to consolidate the UK division's hold over SEL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borley_Rectory
It's not that far from Cambridge either.
http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2009/12/lost-american-airbases-in-britain/